BurmaNet News: January 3 2003 Repost

[editor at burmanet.org]

January 3 2003 Issue #2149 Repost

INSIDE BURMA

NYT: Myanmar Appeal rejected in treason case
DVB: Accidental bomb explosion kills officer, maims 10 cadets in Maymyo

MONEY

Toronto Star: Criticism fails to deter French oil giant

REGIONAL

AFP: Myanmar junta leader to visit China
Bangkok Post: Talks on border patrols planned
Xinhua: Thai Army commander to visit Myanmar next weekend
New Light of Myanmar: Than Shwe and wife to visit China 'in the near future'

INTERNATIONAL

AP: US assail harassment of democracy activist in Myanmar
Energy Compass: UK makes new criticism of Burma's generals

STATEMENTS

US State Dept.: Burma support for dialogue
Forum-Asia: Thai army raided Karen village in Sangkhlaburi
Bangkok Post: Rangoon is its own worst enemy

INSIDE BURMA

New York Times January 3 2003

Myanmar: Appeal Rejected In Treason Case
By Seth Mydans

The Supreme Court rejected an appeal against death sentences handed down
in September against a son-in-law and three grandsons of the country's
former strongman, U Ne Win, who died on Dec. 4. The defendants were
convicted of treason for trying to overthrow the military junta that has
ruled since Mr. Ne Win stepped down in 1988. A defense lawyer said he
would submit a "special appeal." It is also possible that the death
sentences will be commuted since Myanmar rarely carries out executions.
_________

Democratic Voice of Burma January 2 2003

Accidental bomb explosion kills officer, maimed 10 cadets in Maymyo

A bomb accidentally exploded during a rehearsal by the final year cadets
of the Defence Services Academy in Maymyo on 29 December, 2002.
The bomb killed an officer and injured 10 trainees. The explosion took
place during a long-distance march by the final year cadets. Details of
the incident have not been received.
According to a report received by the DVB, Vice-Chairman of the SPDC
(State Peace and Development Council) Gen Maung Aye arrived in Maymyo soon
after the incident and carried out investigations for 2 days.
Meanwhile, telephone lines in Maymyo were cut and were restored only
yesterday.
The bomb explosion killed an officer instantly and maimed 10 cadets.

MONEY
Toronto Star January 3 2003

Criticism fails to deter French oil giant

`We have to go where the oil and gas is,' TotalFinaElf says Firm's
controversial partners include Iran, Myanmar, Iraq

PARIS—French energy giant TotalFinaElf hasn't been deterred by controversy
in its aggressive search for new oil fields.
The Paris-based oil and gas company has provoked outrage in certain
quarters by doing business with countries such as Iran and Myanmar. And
the world's fourth-largest oil producer has positioned itself to profit
when Iraq is free of United Nations sanctions.
"We have to go where the oil and gas is," says Christophe de Margerie,
executive vice-president in charge of exploration and production, "though
not at any cost."
The company's assertive stance has allowed it to surpass its larger
competitors. While industry giants ExxonMobil, Royal Dutch/Shell and BP
PLC have downgraded oil production targets amid tumbling profits, Total
says it's on track to lift 2002 output by 10 per cent.
"TotalFinaElf has been able to expand production and, above all, do it
profitably," said John Parry, analyst at U.S.-based petroleum consultancy
John S. Herold.
The company posted net profits of $4.65 billion (U.S.) in the first nine
months of 2002, down from the same period in 2001 but still in line with
expectations.
TotalFinaElf's expansion into politically sensitive countries has angered
the United States and human rights groups.
The company brushed aside U.S. objections and invested heavily in Iran
during the mid-1990s, then insulated itself from the threat of U.S.
sanctions by selling its American subsidiaries.
At the same time, it opened negotiations with Saddam Hussein's government
to develop two vast oil fields under the Iraqi sands once the United
Nations lifts sanctions imposed after the Gulf War.
Elsewhere, Total has angered separatist rebels in the disputed Western
Sahara by signing a contract with Morocco to develop an offshore oil rig.
While Total has pushed ahead with its investments in some politically
sensitive countries, Canadian oil and gas giant Talisman Energy Inc. has
bowed to pressure from human rights activists over its involvement in an
oil project in war-torn Sudan. The Calgary company announced in October
that it had sold its 25 per cent interest in the controversial Greater
Nile oil project in the east African country for $1.2 billion (Canadian).
The sale to a subsidiary of India's national oil company is expected to be
completed by the end of January, a month later than previously expected.
Does expanding into unstable countries not leave Total more vulnerable to
Third World political risks such as coup d'etats, nationalization or
terrorism?
De Margerie, who sees Total's diversity as one of its greatest assets,
says no.
"We split our risks," he said in an interview at Total's headquarters just
outside Paris. "No one country has such an exposure that it would put our
company at stake."
Furthermore, de Margerie said rising demand over the next 20 years means
oil companies will need to find much more oil but "it's not easy to find
new opportunities. ``It's a big fight."
"When we see new opportunities, we are very aggressive," he said. "But we
will never operate in a country unless we are certain we can uphold our
rules of conduct and respect the laws."
According to the labour movement, that wasn't the case in Myanmar,
formerly known as Burma. A group of unions has lodged a complaint in a
French court alleging the company used forced labour during the
construction of a pipeline. Total denies any wrongdoing.
De Margerie rejected calls by some rights groups for Total to leave the
country because of the ruling junta's poor human-rights record, citing the
company's commitments to local communities in Myanmar.
Asked about Iran, de Margerie said Washington's decision to bar U.S.
companies from doing business there did not apply to Total.
Now the company is focused on Iraq. It is anxious to develop vast new
energy deposits in a post-Saddam Iraq. But it also fears that two
tentative agreements it has signed with Saddam's regime could be voided by
U.S.-led military action.
"We would like to develop those fields as soon as possible," de Margerie
said.

REGIONAL

Agence France-Presse January 3 2003

Myanmar junta leader to visit China

Myanmar junta leader Senior General Than Shwe is to pay an official visit
to China later this month, officials said Friday.

The January 6-11 visit will be Than Shwe's second as chairman of the
ruling State Peace and Development Council (SPDC), a government official
told AFP.

He will be accompanied by the chief of military intelligence General Khin
Nyunt and several ministers including Foreign Minister Win Aung. "This
latest visit will provide new opportunities for enhancing mutual
understanding, extending common views and strengthening friendly
cooperation between the two neighbours," said a Chinese diplomatic source.

The source said the goodwill visit was especially significant in light of
the advent of a new leadership in China under Hu Jintao, who is expected
to succeed President Jiang Zemin.

Sino-Myanmar relations have always been strong, except for a brief period
during the 1960s when the "Cultural Revolution" swept across China and
spilled over the border into Myanmar.

Ties took a turn for the better after the 1998 military coup when Myanmar
was shunned by most other nations, obliging to turn towards its big
northern neighbour to help develop its infrastructure.

Than Shwe, number two in the military hierarchy at that time, was the
first high-level Myanmar visitor to China after the takeover, leading a
huge delegation there in 1989.

His latest visit comes at a time when the junta's staunchest critics, led
by the United States, are renewing calls for it to revive a dialogue with
the opposition led by Nobel peace laureate Aung San Suu Kyi.

Jiang made his first visit to Myanmar in December 2001, when the two
countries signed cooperation agreements in the agriculture, natural and
human resources, and infrastructure sector, in addition to agreeing on new
soft loans.

Analysts say China has boosted its influence in Myanmar a bid to secure
strategic access to the Andaman Sea, where it is funding a sea port. It is
also interested in offsetting India's growing links with the junta, they
say.

To improve ties, China has helped Myanmar expand its military
capabilities, providing it with dozens of light and medium battle tanks,
hundreds of armored personnel carriers as well as jets and naval craft.
_____

Bangkok Post January 3 2003

TALKS ON BORDER PATROLS PLANNED
By Wassana Nanuam and Subin Khuenkaew

Army commander Somdhat Attanant will visit Rangoon next weekend for talks
expected to focus on proposals for joint border patrols.

The visit would be Gen Somdhat's first to Burma since becoming army
commander-in-chief in October.

At a meeting with Burmese army commander Gen Maung Aye, Gen Somdhat would
propose joint border patrols to tackle drug trafficking and illegal
migrants, a source said. Rangoon has rejected a similar proposal before,
saying it does not have enough staff.

But in fact they don't want Thai troops in their areas.

They don't have complete control in the border areas either,'' the source
said.

Lt-Gen Udomchai Ongkhasingh, Third Army commander, is worried about a
Burmese crackdown on ethnic minority fighters along the shared border. The
fighting could spill into Thai territory, he said.

The commander still hoped that disputes could be solved through the
Township Border Committee.

Any Burmese soldiers captured on Thai soil would be handed over to the
TBC. Thai soldiers are required to promote better relations with Burmese
troops.''

Lt-Gen Udomchai also quoted Gen Maung Aye as saying that conflicts between
Thailand and Burma were the work of a third party.

Deputy Prime Minister Gen Chavalit Yongchaiyudh is visiting Rangoon late
this month. The army says it will not hold any big exercises near the
border to avoid misunderstandings with Rangoon.

Gen Somdhat said neither country would hold exercises along the border, as
that was the agreement made at the 20th Thai-Burmese Regional Border
Committee in Moulmein on Dec 26-28.

If Thailand or Burma does plan an exercise, they must tell each other in
advance.

The military would send troops for the joint Thai-US Cobra Gold 2003 and
Balance Torch exercises, held every year. But it would not repeat the
Surasee 143 exercise, held near the border last year, which Burma found
provocative.

A source said Burma was mobilising troops for a crackdown on ethnic
minority rebels at bases opposite Chiang Rai, Mae Hong Son and Chiang Mai.
________
Xinhua News Agency January 3 2003

Thai Army commander to visit Myanmar next weekend

Thai Army Commander Somdhat Attanant will pay his first visit to Rangoon
next weekend since he took the position last October for talks expected to
focus on joint border patrols, the Bangkok Post reported Friday.

A source of the Army revealed that at a meeting with Myanmar's Army
Commander Maung Aye, Somdhat would propose joint border patrols to tackle
drug trafficking and illegal migrants, even though Rangoon had rejected a
similar proposal before, saying it does not have enough staff. Thai Deputy
Prime Minister Chavalit Yongchaiyudh would also visit Rangoon late this
month, the report said.

Meanwhile, Thai Army said it would not hold any big exercises near the
border to avoid misunderstandings with Rangoon.

Somdhat was quoted as saying that neither country would hold exercises
along the border, as that was the agreement made at the 20th Thai-Myanmar
Regional Border Committee in Moulmein on Dec. 26-28,2002.

The military would send troops for the annual joint Thai-US Cobra Gold
2003 and Balance Torch exercises. But it would not repeat the Surasee 143
exercise, held near the border last year, which Myanmar found provocative,
the report said.
________

New Light of Myanmar January 3 2003

Than Shwe and wife to visit China "in the near future"

Yangon, 3 January: At the invitation of HE Mr Jiang Zemin, President of
the People's Republic of China, Sr Gen Than Shwe, chairman of the State
Peace and Development Council and prime minister of the Union of Myanmar,
accompanied by wife Daw Kyaing Kyaing, will pay a State Visit to the
People's Republic of China in the near future.

INTERNATIONAL

Associated Press January 3 2003

US assails harassment of democracy activist in Myanmar

The State Department on Thursday criticized what it called harassment by
government-affiliated groups in Myanmar of democracy advocate Aung San Suu
Kyi. Spokesman Richard Boucher said the harassment occurred during a
recent trip Suu Kyi made outside the capital.

He said efforts by such groups to harass opposition party leaders cannot
help a national reconciliation process to which the Myanmar government has
committed.

"The United States calls on the Myanmar regime to ensure that all
political parties can carry their message to the Myanmar people in
safety," he said.

Criticizing continued military rule in Myanmar, Boucher said, "Political
change is needed in Myanmar."
______

Energy Compass January 3 2002

UK makes new criticism of Burma's generals

UK Foreign Office Minister Mike O'Brien has called on the Burmese
(Myanmar) government to "end harassment" of opposition leader Aung San Suu
Kyi, and said he was appalled by reports that the government had
distributed leaflets that made personal attacks on her family, and that a
minister had dissuaded people form meeting opposition representatives.

O'Brien called on senior Burmese general Than Shwe "to enter into a
serious dialogue with the National League for Democracy and other
opposition parties." The latest statement from London will further
embarrass firms active in Burma, such as Total Fina Elf, US Unocal, and
UK-listed Premier Oil, which for the time being still has a 26.7%
operating interest in the Yetagun gas field.

Three months ago labor unions in the EU urged a ban on European investment
in the country after fresh evidence suggesting that multinationals were
profiting from forced labor(EC Oct.25,p12).

Premier had said in September last year that it was selling its entire
26.7% stake in Yetagun. But Premiere said on Jan. 2 that its sale to
Malaysia's state-owned Petronas had still not been finalized because of
approvals pending from Myanmar and Indonesia.

STATEMENTS/MISCELLANEOUS

U.S. State Department January 2 2003

Burma Support for Dialogue

Press Statement
Richard Boucher, Spokesman
Washington, DC
January 2, 2003

In a press conference in Rangoon on December 31, Aung San Suu Kyi
described harassment from government-affiliated groups to which she was
subjected during her recent trip to Burma's Rakhine State. Efforts by such
groups to harass opposition party leaders cannot help a national
reconciliation process to which the Burmese government has committed
itself. The United States calls on the Burmese regime to ensure that all
political parties can carry their message to the Burmese people in safety.
We also call on the regime to join with the National League for Democracy
and representatives of Burma's ethnic communities in a real dialogue
regarding constitutional issues. Political change is needed in Burma. As
Aung San Suu Kyi said December 31, the Burmese people deserve a better
government and a better standard of living. Every effort should be made to
see that they get both in 2003.
______

Forum-Asia January 3 2003


Thai Army Raided Karen Village in Sangkhlaburi

The Asian Forum for Human Rights and Development (FORUM-ASIA) is concerned
about reports that 65 Karen villagers from 19 families were issued a
three-day deadline to evacuate their homes after a military raid on 24
December 2002 in Wia Ka Di Village, tambon Nong Lu, Sakhlaburi district,
Kanchanaburi Province, western Thailand.

The incident was explained by Colonel Somkhuan Saenpattaranate, Army
spokesman, during an official press conference on 26 December 2002 that
the Surasi Task Force, which oversees security along the Thai-Burmese
border in Kanchanaburi province, rounded up ethnic Karen rebels who had
set up a stronghold in Wia Ka Di village. "Those arrested were members of
the anti-Rangoon Karen National Union (KNU) and were not carrying any
identification cards, and therefore they would be forced back across the
border."

FORUM-ASIA understands that Thailand has a longstanding policy not
allowing any armed groups to use the Thai territory to launch military
activities against neighboring countries. However, information received by
FORUM-ASIA disputed the official statement of the Army.

FORUM-ASIA received information confirming that all the 65 villagers were
unarmed civilians from ethnic Karen communities in Sangkhlaburi district,
and their families have settled down in Thailand for many generations.
They were neither members of an armed group nor illegal migrants as
claimed by the Army. At least two villagers issued with a deportation
deadline even possessed Thai ID cards. Some were holders of temporary ID
cards and others had blue highlanders' cards. Even villagers without ID
cards were also in the process of identifying themselves as allowed by the
Cabinet Resolution on 27 August 2002, which provided these a whole year
for the verification process and no deportation order could be issued
against them until at least August 2003.

FORUM-ASIA also learned that there were reports of excessive use of force,
harassment and human rights abuses during the raid when troops from the
Surasi Task Force torched three huts and stocks of rice paddy.

Villagers have appealed for help from the National Human Rights Commission
and the Low Society of Thailand, which could temporarily stop the
deportation after the end of a three-day deadline on 27 December 2002. But
the Thai Army as well as officials from the local administrative
authorities have repeatedly warned villagers until this morning (3 January
2003) that they would be pushed across the border very soon because "their
existence has seriously affected Thailand's national security and
relations with Burma."

In parallel, the new Secretary General of the National Security Council
(NSC), General Winai Phattiyakhul, on 29 December 2002 stated that
Thailand would soon end its role of sheltering and resettling refugees
fleeing political conflicts in Burma. General Winai Phattiyakhul warned
that "from now on, Thailand would force refugees to go back to where they
came from", and that "Thailand would not welcome refugees from Burma and
other neighboring countries anymore."

Regarding the Karen communities in Wia Ka Di village, FORUM-ASIA fears
that the deportation will practically mean the revocation of the Thai
citizenship of these villagers, making them stateless and highly
vulnerable to all forms of abuses and mistreatment by the Burmese
authorities.
________

Bangkok Post January 3 2003

RANGOON IS ITS OWN WORST ENEMY

The United States has informed Burma that it will remain on the very short
list of countries blackballed for illicit drugs trafficking. It seems
likely, in fact, that Burma will be the only such country on the final
list for the second year in a row. The decision will be announced in
March. By any objective view, Burma deserves to be at the top of the list
of nations where drug trafficking thrives. But the arcane and secretive
manner of the annual US certification list leaves a lot to be desired.

The process is mandated by the US congress but a series of presidents has
gone along with it. Essentially, the law requires the US government to
identify countries where there is drug trafficking _ not too difficult _
and then to certify'' that each is taking determined steps against
growing, making, smuggling and profiting from the trade. Last year, for
example, 23 countries including Thailand were named as major international
players in the illicit drug industry. Just three were judged as
ineffective fighters: Afghanistan, Haiti and Burma. At this point, the law
requires the US to cut off most aid, as well as name and shame the
countries involved. But then it gets worse. The multi-section law allows
the US president to exempt the worst trafficking nations from punishment.
In fact, it allows him to increase aid and attention if, somehow, it's in
the interest of the United States. Last year, helping newly liberated
Afghanistan was in everybody's interest despite the huge opium crop. Poor
Haiti, in the American physical sphere of influence, is too important to
let fall to another dictator over a relatively small amount of drug aid.

So last year Burma was the world's only nation judged as friendly to drug
trafficking, yet too insignificant to get help. And each stage of the
American decision-making process provided less public justification. Now
it appears it has done it again. Two months ago, officials of the US State
Department _ the nation's ambassadors and professional diplomats _ were
openly recommending that Burma receive US aid for drug activities next
year. Last week, the Rangoon dictators were informed they would spend
another year on the blacklist.

What happened was crudely political. The European Union put heavy pressure
on Burma to begin moves to democracy, and Rangoon refused. The same US
State Department conducted its own investigation and found substantial
evidence that the Burmese army was involved in the serial and mass rape of
women and girls during the forced removal of the Shan people from their
homelands so that Rangoon-friendly Wa leaders could take over their land.

So the decision to keep Rangoon isolated from drug aid seems to have been
made during a totally opaque investigation that did not look directly at
the drug trafficking problem. It is exactly the sort of situation which
has caused personalities from the president of Mexico, Vicente Fox, to the
former US drug czar General Barry McCaffrey to abandon the whole
certification process.

Let's make no mistake about the facts. Burma is a major producer of
illicit drugs, perhaps the biggest in the world. The heroin and
methamphetamines cartel of the United Wa State Army is the world's
largest. The Burmese dictatorship has acquiesced in a drug trade which
threatens the entire fabric and culture of Thailand and other neighbours.
That acquiescence has raised questions of whether Burma is a narcocracy,
and an addict of the drug money from money laundering. The certification
system allows little leeway on other questions. It may be better to
provide help to those Burmese offices taking steps, for example, to fight
the heroin trade. Under the current and non-accountable certification
system, no one will know.
_______

The Times (London) January 3 2003

Real guns for Burma's lost boys
By Hans Nichols

THE BURMESE MILITARY HAS BEEN ACCUSED OF MASS RAPE AGAINST ETHNIC MINORITY
WOMEN AND GIRLS. BUT THIS IS A CULTURE IN WHICH BOTH THE RULING JUNTA AND
ITS OPPOSITION THINK NOTHING OF USING CHILDREN TO FIGHT THEIR WAR. HANS
NICHOLS REPORTS

ITS MUZZLE TO his toes, Saw Yo Ba's M16 reaches just shy of his armpit,
where the stock disappears into the folds of his adult-sized fatigues. His
gun is a standard metre long - one of half a billion small arms in
circulation.

At 13, Yo Ba is one of 300,000 child soldiers worldwide. He is about 4ft
9in (1.47m) tall. In early June, he joined the armed wing of the Karen
National Union (KNU) for the same reasons that child soldiers join
militias the world over: a place to belong, a chance for revenge, a thing
to do. Both Yo Ba's parents were killed by the military junta that has
been in power in Burma since 1988 (the country was renamed Myanmar the
following year). His father was shot dead in their ancestral village when
Yo Ba was three; his mother's body was found hacked to death in a field
when he was 11. Why were they killed? "Because we are Karen," he says with
a smile and shrug. Yo Ba is more mascot than mercenary. The elders in his
unit look after him. He is fed three meals a day - more than most of his
fellow Karen, an ethnic group of seven million in eastern Burma along the
Thai border, get to eat. Unlike the child soldiers enlisted by the
military junta in Rangoon, Yo Ba is not forced to walk across an unmapped
minefield. He can go home whenever he wants. Except, or course, that he
has no home.

In Karen State, known to its inhabitants as Kawthoolay, or "land of the
flowers", death comes freely. It is as cheap as the Chinese landmines that
seed these muddy hills and as expensive as the anti-malarial medicine no
one can afford. Here, killing breeds familiarity and, ultimately,
acceptance. Yo Ba acknowledges, rather absent-mindedly, that he enlisted
in the KNU because he "wants to kill SPDC", using the English acronym for
the junta's State Peace and Development Council. But to Yo Ba killing
doesn't mean the same as it does to people in the West. For him killing is
a way of surviving.

Yo Ba's attitude - a combination of nihilism and cheeriness - is common
among the Karen fighting for survival inside Burma. In the week I spent
with them around their 7th Brigade headquarters across the Moei River from
Thailand, stories like his became familiar. One of the medics who nursed
Yo Ba back from malaria described how she found her pregnant sister face
down in the family rice paddy, her traditional Karen skirt - the longyi -
partially removed, suggesting rape. A recent US State Department
investigation has corroborated claims that Burmese military officials have
systematically raped ethnic minority women. The medic's sister's body lay
next to that of her brother-in-law, whose neck was almost severed from his
torso, as were his arms. Yet the medic tells her story without emotion or
anger.

At 13, Yo Ba was the youngest child soldier I met, though there are
stories of even younger warriors. Thirteen is also the age that the
Karen's leader, General Bo Mya, took up arms. Now well into his seventies,
he has been at war all his life. When Japan invaded colonial Burma, the
ethnic Burmese sided with the Japanese while the Karen stayed loyal to the
British. Then, in the aftermath of the Second World War the British, in
search of the easiest solution, cut a deal with the Burmese, and left
their erstwhile allies without a home, and without protection.

It was during the Japanese occupation that a young Bo Mya, and a
generation of Karen, learned their guerrilla art. Those skills have
allowed his people to survive decades of persecution by various regimes in
Rangoon in what may be the world's longest-running war, beating the
conflict in the Middle East and Kashmir by a few years. Indeed, the
shooting stops only when rain starts to fall, as it does for three months
starting in late June.

Perhaps it is the noncombatant civilians who are the hardest hit as,
according to Karen refugees, their land remains undeveloped. More than
100,000 of these refugees live in camps in Thailand. For more than 50
years the conflict has continued in varying degrees of intensity. Like the
jungle itself, it is a constant struggle between genesis and decay. By
some estimates, annual casualties are similar to America's losses in the
early stages of the Vietnam War - in the low thousands. High, but not high
enough for UN intervention.

Some have called this "Burma's forgotten war", but that implies that the
war was once remembered. If the Karen are known for anything today, it is
for their child soldiers. Four years ago, Johnny and Luther Htoo, leaders
of God's Army, an offshoot of the KNU, made spectacular advances into
territory that the SPDC was clearing of ethnic minorities. The twins made
gripping headlines and sensational photos: the angelic Johnny juxtaposed
against the cynical Luther. Their pictures and the story of their people's
plight spread around the world. For a moment, the international community
showed some interest in the Karen. Then the twins fell out of
international favour three years ago when God's Army laid siege to a Thai
hospital, demanding that their wounded be treated. A year later, Johnny
and Luther surrendered to the Thai authorities.

The Htoo twins were nothing more than a sideshow to the ongoing conflict
in Burma, say KNU regulars. They were more interested in tempting fate by
dancing on landmines and exploring the superstitions of their religion - a
conflation of animism and Christianity - than in fighting for Karen
autonomy. Today, the twins live in relative obscurity under house arrest
in Thailand.

It is a grim irony of this war that the Karen's opposition has even more
of a reputation for enlisting child soldiers. Defectors from the SPDC tell
how Burmese youngsters are routinely kidnapped in Rangoon, forced into the
army and then plied with yaa-baa (amphetamines) to fortify their courage.
Along with unwilling porters (many of whom are "released" from Rangoon's
crowded jails) the child soldiers are used as sappers and ordered to lead
a pack of men through unmapped minefields.

Stories about drug-addled child soldiers, like other reports of the SPDC's
outrages, regularly seep across the Thai border, but rarely make it much
further. A recent Amnesty International report was an exception,
concluding that "the situation for civilians in the east of Myanmar is
cause for grave concern. The Government needs to show it is serious about
human rights improvements throughout the country by taking urgent steps to
protect civilians from forced labour, extortion and land confiscation at
the hands of its armed forces".

Official spokesmen in Rangoon dismissed the Amnesty report, suggesting -
in a brash attempt to borrow the anti-terrorism language of the White
House - that it "emanated from armed ethnic terrorist groups". Either way,
no one seemed to notice and Burma looks as if it will be a casualty of
neglect in the world order. That leaves its fate in the hands of the armed
insurgencies along the border and the non-violent movements in Rangoon.

Aung San Suu Kyi, the head of the National League for Democracy and 1991
Noble Laureate, and Bo Mya have spent their lives fighting for
self-determination in Burma. And yet they have never met. They probably
never will. When asked if he has ever spoken to her, Bo Mya shakes his
head dismissively. "She doesn't dare contact our armed groups," he
explains. Bo Mya doesn't seem keen on breaking the ice. That's because the
Karen never trusted Suu Kyi's father, a prominent independence leader (and
ethnic Burmese) who was assassinated in 1947.

Shortly after Suu Kyi was released from her latest house arrest - this one
lasting 20 months - the junta persuaded the Thai authorities to exile Bo
Mya from his headquarters in Thailand, the first official exile of his 50
years of guerrilla insurgency. As he snaked back into a KNU stronghold
inside Burma, Suu Kyi became relatively free.

Suu Kyi has spent much of the past decade under house arrest and is no
stranger to seclusion. Educated at Oxford, she follows in the non-violent
tradition of Mahatma Gandhi, Martin Luther King and Nelson Mandela. For
many Burmese, she is the only bright spot in Burma's bleak future.

By contrast Bo Mya's classroom was the jungle: ceasefire is not in his
vocabulary. Even in the monsoons of early August, the KNU holds training
exercises, firing off M16s, mortars, and that staple of all Third-World
wars, the rocket-propelled grenade. By any definition, it is a ragtag
guerrilla army: barefoot or in flip-flops; short on supplies and long on
morale.

Bo Mya claims to have 10,000 troops (the number is probably half that, say
independent sources) and insists that victory will come soon, even as he
sits in front of a poster of Rambo and an old yellowed newspaper clipping
from one of Thailand's English dailies that reads: "Against all odds the
Karen continue their struggle."

In many ways Burma's ethnic tribes are similar to Afghanistan's Northern
Alliance. They control a fraction of the country's border regions, are
outnumbered and outgunned and, save outside intervention, face imminent
defeat. A perpetual stalemate is their best hope. Some groups are
unsavoury (mostly because of their drug trade) and others - in particular,
the Karen - aren't so bad. Many have known famine, war and drugs for
generations. And just as the Tajik and Uzbek warlords of Afghanistan
distrusted each other, as well as moderate Pashtuns from the south, the
leadership of Burma's ethnic tribes are not inclined to trust each other,
nor a moderate from Rangoon like Suu Kyi.

Since assuming power in 1988, the junta has been efficient at exploiting
these differences. In 1995, when a split in Karen leadership gave birth to
Christian and Buddhist factions, the junta was quick to form an alliance
with the Democratic Karen Buddhist Army. Now, these two groups of Karen
are at war with each other, just as they once were united against the
SPDC.

Some ethnic leaders hope that these disparate groups will unite against
Rangoon instead of each other. But they also admit that their best chance
lies more with Suu Kyi's non-violent approach than with guerrilla
insurgencies.

That may be a matter of practical realisation. Having signed ceasefires
with 24 ethnic armies, the junta can concentrate its 400,000-strong army -
which has increased from 180,000 since 1988 - on the holdout groups, most
notably the Karen and the Shan. Meanwhile, the junta is making a play for
international support, with an eye towards lifting the sanctions, by
releasing political prisoners like Suu Kyi, in addition to some 300
others. But an estimated 1,400 dissidents remain under lock and key.

Bo Mya is now back in Thailand, planning operations for the dry season. He
may not get the chance, as there are signs that the new Thai Government,
eager for improved relations with Rangoon, is growing tired of hosting the
Karen. Like Suu Kyi, Bo Mya may have to adjust to a life of seclusion - an
exile in his own land. If that happens, his best hope for freedom may be
Suu Kyi, a woman he doesn't trust.

I ask Yo Ba if he thinks that peace will come to Burma. My translator, who
up to this point has performed admirably, stumbles over "peace". I
rephrase: "Will the fighting ever end?"

Yo Ba smiles and shakes his head. He "hopes not". He still wants to shoot
some SPDC.