BurmaNet News: July 31 2003

[editor at burmanet.org]

July 31 2003 Issue #2296

INSIDE BURMA

Xinhua: Myanmar rejects sanctions by foreign countries
DVB: Indaw Township-NLD member arrested
AP: Foreign radio stations most popular source of news in Myanmar
Xinhua: Myanmar arrests near 400 human traffickers in a year
Narinjara: Luring villagers into Burmese Army

MONEY

Narinjara: Banks in distress

INTERNATIONAL

UN Wire: UN Envoy will re-evaluate mission if no progress in Myanmar
AFP: Myanmar general condemns new US sanctions as ‘human rights abuse’

REGIONAL

NMG: Thai explains ‘road map’ to Burma’s democracy
Irrawaddy: Win Aung in Bangkok
AFX.com: Philippines wants Aung San Suu Kyi freed before ASEAN Bali summit
in Oct
Nation: PM to push Burma on peace road map idea
Nation: Regional development talks begin here today

ON THE BORDER

NMG: Thai says no more Burmese visitors at border village

EDITORIAL

Bangkok Post: What will it take to rescue Burma?

INSIDE BURMA

Xinhua News Agency July 31 2003

Myanmar rejects sanctions by foreign countries

Myanmar leader General Khin Nyunt has charged some new foreign sanctions
with abusing human rights.

"Trying to push the people of the nation into deep poverty like this is
abuse of human rights," said Khin Nyunt at a meeting of National Committee
for Women's Affairs on Wednesday evening, official newspaper The New Light
of Myanmar reported Thursday.

Khin Nyunt's remarks were seen as directing at United States President
George W. Bush's July 29 endorsement of a bill imposing sanctions on
Myanmar after it failed to respond to the call on immediate release of
opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi (ASSK).

These big powers are interfering in the internal affairs of Myanmar, he
also accused, blaming the big nations with imposing economic sanctions on
the country on the pretext of democracy and human rights.

The US sanctions against Myanmar not only include banning imports from the
country and freezing the military government's assets in the United States
but also expand the current ban on granting US visas to Myanmar officials
and codify existing policy that opposes new international loans or
technical aid to the country. The legislation of these ban was
overwhelmingly approved earlier by the US Congress.

Meanwhile, the Myanmar Foreign Ministry regretted in a statement on
Wednesday over US government's decision to approve the new ban which it
said will in no way be helpful to the relations between the two countries
nor will it contribute to Myanmar's efforts for consolidating national
reconciliation and building a democratic society.

The tightening of sanctions against Myanmar by the US government came
after Yangon arrested ASSK, general secretary of the National League for
Democracy (NLD), and put her in a secret location on account of the May 30
incident, in which ASSK's convoy was reportedly ambushed by government
supporters when she was making political trip in the north of the country.

The government claimed that four people were killed and 48 others injured
in the bloody clashes between NLD supporters and pro-government
protesters.

Since then, the community, including the United Nations, the Association
of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), the United States, the European Union
(EU), Canada and Japan, has been urging the Myanmar military regime to
immediately release ASSK. Of them, the EU, along with the United States,
has also stepped up sanctions, while Japan suspended its economic aid to
press for ASSK's release.

In the latest development, the recent Fifth Asia-Europe Meeting in Bali
has also called on the Myanmar government to release ASSK and ensure
freedom of political activities in the country.
_________

Democratic Voice of Burma July 31 2003

Indaw Township-NLD member arrested

It is reported that Ko Thant Shin, the NLD organiser Indaw Township,
Sagaing Division was arrested and sentenced to one year in prison on the
17th of July.

Ko Thant Shin’s ‘Meik Set’ Restaurant was raided on the 15th of July and
he was arrested and sentenced two days later. Ten other restaurants were
raided but their owners were neither arrested nor prosecuted.

U Maung Maung Than, the MP of Yamethin, Mandalay Division told the DVB
about it as follows:

U Maung Maung Than : They raided Ko Thant’s Shin’s ‘Meik Set’ restaurant
and ten other restaurants in Indaw with the intention of searching and
seizing illegal booze. They arrested Ko Thant Shin on the 15th of July and
he was sentenced to one year in prison. Other owners were not prosecuted
but they sentenced the NLD organiser to one year in prison.

DVB : The other restaurants and shops, are they the normal ones or owned
by the NLD?

U Maung Maung Than : They are not owned by the NLD members. There are ten
in all. One of them is owned by a civil servant from township legal
department and the rest are owned by civilians. They are not prosecuted.
Only U Thant Shin was prosecuted and imprisoned.


The NLD members do not even have the basic rights of normal citizens,
added U Maung Maung Than:

U Maung Maung Than : We are tried in prisons. We have lost all the rights
to be tried in front of the people. We don’t feel good about prosecuting
legal matters and the like. We have been fighting for human rights and
democracy for 15 years. We even haven’t got the legal rights of a normal
citizen. We are being oppressed more and more. The oppression is
one-sided. They are doing everything and by all means they could so that
we could not do anything.
__________

Associated Press July 31 2003

Foreign radio stations most popular source of news in Myanmar
By SHELLY CULBERTSON

 Myo, a taxi driver, has memorized the entire daily broadcast schedule of
the BBC, the Voice of America and two other foreign radio stations.

Driving a visitor around Yangon in his beat-up, white Toyota, he proudly
recited the schedules from early morning until night: "VOA is 6 in the
morning. BBC is at 6:30. Radio Free Asia is from 7 to 8. Voice of America
is 6 in the evening again."

He continued through the list, counting off times excitedly on his
fingers, shifting gears between gestures, and turning around in his seat
to ensure his passenger understood.

Myo, who did not want to give his full name, is among millions of people
in Myanmar who listen to foreign radio broadcasts as the main source of
news about the country. Along with the U.S. and British government
stations VOA and BBC, the most popular stations are Radio Free Asia, also
financed by the United States, and the Democratic Voice of Burma, an
opposition station based in Norway.

Although not strictly illegal, listening to news on foreign radio stations
is considered a defiant gesture unlikely to be looked on favorably by the
authorities in Myanmar, or Burma, as it's also known.

The military, in power since 1962, is paranoid that independent
information may dent its hold on power and add to the popularity of the
pro-democracy opposition leader, Aung San Suu Kyi. It limits sources of
outside information by requiring licenses for fax machines and blocking
Web sites critical of the government.

Aside from foreign stations, the only other news comes from
state-controlled media, which are devoted to recording the activities of
junta leader Gen. Than Shwe and his Cabinet. The newspapers Myanma Ahlin
and Kyemon publish no news of Suu Kyi and her party - unless it is to
berate them.

Foreign radio stations' listenership has shot up since the May 30 arrest
of Suu Kyi, and Philippe Latour of the international press freedom group
Reporters Without Borders said their listeners could face the government's
anger.

"They are at risk of getting into really big trouble for getting news from
outside," said Latour, who is based in Bangkok in neighboring Thailand.

However, in a faxed reply to a query, a government spokesman said this was
not the case: "There is no such law concerned with listening to foreign
radio stations and watching foreign TV stations. ... Telling what you have
heard or watched on the radio or TV is not against the law unless you are
doing it with the intention to agitate, incite or cause some sort of
public unrest."

The spokesman, who asked that his name not be used, added that the
Democratic Voice of Burma and Radio Free Asia "are not very much accepted
by sensible listeners" because of their weak signals and the "black
propaganda" they broadcast.

Taxi driver Myo said that 90 percent of the people he knows listen to
foreign broadcasts on small, easily hidden transistor radios. As if to
show how it is done, Myo crouched low in his driver's seat with his hand
cupped over a pretend radio next to his hear.

According to Intermedia, a private firm hired by the BBC and VOA to survey
their impact in Myanmar, 39 percent of the country's 52 million people
listen to the BBC and 30 percent to VOA.

"Our purpose is long term, to empower people with information," the VOA's
Jay Henderson said in a telephone interview from Washington.

Kyaw Zen Tha, the chief of the BBC Burmese service based in London, said:
"The BBC is only out there so that the Burmese people can hear from the
outside what is true. News from the Burmese government is only propaganda.
Our programs are often the only source of information."

The few Myanmar journalists who have tried to be independent in their
reporting have faced harassment, censorship and very often prison.

Latour of Reporters without Borders said 16 journalists were in prison in
Myanmar at the end of 2002, compared to 11 in China, whose population is
more than 30 times greater. He added that a few more reporters have been
jailed since the detention of Nobel laureate Suu Kyi in May.

The only foreign journalist based in Myanmar is from China - an ally of
the Myanmar government - and other reporters working for foreign news
organizations in the country are from Myanmar, and can be intimidated by
the authorities.

One Western diplomat recounted that diplomats who are allowed to attend
news conferences are usually the ones asking tough questions as the
Myanmar reporters sit silently, fearful of directing pointed questions at
military officers.

Myanmar does not have any privately operated daily newspapers. It has up
to 100 private weeklies or monthlies but these publications - and their
individual articles - must be approved by a government board.

One editor of a monthly news journal, who spoke on condition of anonymity,
reported that the board rejects many of his articles and even prohibits
the use of many words.

"We can't use the words like warlord, inflation or exchange rate," he
said, chuckling over the junta's intolerance to any mention of the
country's problems.

The editor's combined home, office and print shop suggested his own - and
the country's - economic troubles. The walls were a smudged
fluoride-green, and he talked from behind a scratched and dented desk.

The editor said he has never been detained, but that he has been
threatened with arrest and his previous publication was once shut down.
Now he publishes his journal under someone else's name and seemed pleased
that - in some small way - he could flout the system.

"I'm so envious of foreign reporters who can say whatever they want," he
said.
________

Xinhua News Agency July 31 2003

Myanmar arrests near 400 human traffickers in a year

The Myanmar authorities arrested 390 human traffickers in connection with
206 related cases in a year's time from July 2002 to July 2003, official
newspaper The New Light of Myanmar reported Thursday.

During the period, the authorities rescued 1,008 people, including women
and children, from being smuggled by trafficking gangs, Deputy Minister of
Home Affairs Brigadier-General Thura Myint Maung was quoted as saying.

Myint Maung told a meeting of the Myanmar National Women's Affairs
Committee here  that 77,421 people have also been " educated" against
human trafficking and 11,113 people could be sent homes.

He added that Myanmar formed a 24-member Working Committee for Prevention
Against Trafficking in Persons on July 2002 with branches at state,
division, district, township, ward and village levels to implement the
tasks.

He disclosed that Myanmar and Australia are drafting a memorandum of
understanding on the fight against human trafficking in Asia.

It was reported that the majority of the victims were destined mainly to
neighboring Thailand and many young girls were trafficked into sex trade,
making them at high risk of contracting HIV/AIDS.

The Myanmar authorities have taken measures by stepping up trafficking
prevention and suppression activities at three border towns of Tachilek,
Myawaddy and Kawthoung linking Thailand.
_______

Narinjara News July 31 2003

Luring villagers into Burmese Army

 Three young villagers in western Burma have been enticed into joining the
military services, according to a relative of the recruits.

The three teenagers are illiterate and of minor age, the relative added. 
The man also said that the Burmese Army has for some time been paying
money as enticement for attracting more recruits.

The names of the new recruits are: Maung Shwe Sein (16), son of U Kyauk
Pan, Maung Thein Win (17), son of U Aung Tha Gyaw, and Maung Pru Thein
(16), son of U Ba Thein, from Kring-chhaung Village under Buthidaung
Township, close to the Bangladesh border.  The village is situated in the
northern part of the township close to Maungdaw, and is about eighty miles
north of Sittwe, the capital of Burma’s western Rakhine State.

According to the villager the parents of the new recruits were given kyat
20,000 for each of their children on July 15th as a temptation to
encourage more of the villagers to join the Burmese Army.

On inquiry we came to know that the Burmese Army at present has adopted a
new strategy of luring new conscriptions by paying money to the parents of
the individual recruits.

MONEY

Narinjara News July 31 2003

Banks in distress

 A number of private commercial banks in western Burma have been facing
closure due to drastic reduction in transactions since the bank crisis
began in mid-February this year.

Sources in a private bank in Maungdaw, a township on the Naaf River across
the Bangladeshi town of Teknaf said that their bank is facing closure and
inability to pay the employees as people have lost faith in bank
transactions.  “The private banks are now sitting idle, sometimes even
without one transaction in an entire day,” an official in a private bank
said.

The private banks operating in Rakhine State, in the western part of
Burma, include Asia Wealth Bank, Kanbawza Bank and Yoma Bank.  “People
have been attracted away from private banks and the entire banking system
since they cannot take out their required amount of money from their own
deposits as there are restrictions on the amount of money an
account-holder can withdraw,” the official in the bank said.

In Sittwe, the capital of the frontier state, the price of an imported 100
cc Chinese motorbike has come down to kyat 500,000 from kyat 700,000 as
people lost their buying power.  “We can’t sell one bike in a month now as
money vanished due to the inability on part of the banks to pay back their
clients,” said an owner of a motorbike shop, “how can I survive if I can’t
even pay the rent of my shop?”

The trade and commerce in the hub of the state has also slowed down in the
face of bank crisis and many restrictions imposed on the transport of
everyday essentials including the onion, pulses and cooking oil, the
official concluded.

INTERNATIONAL

UN Wire July 31 2003

U.N. Envoy Will Re-evaluate Mission If No Progress In Myanmar

U.N. human rights envoy on Myanmar Paulo Sergio Pinheiro will re-evaluate
his mandate to engage the government in dialogue if there is no human
rights progress there, Radio Free Asia reported yesterday.

According to RFA's Burmese service, Pinheiro cited the continued detention
of "several hundreds of" prisoners  and said that without improvement, "I
will be obliged to revise my commitment to this mandate."

Although Pinheiro has gone to Myanmar for the last three Novembers and has
told the Yangon government he is ready to visit at any time, he said he
has not received an answer, adding that "this is a serious obstacle to any
discussion or any possibility of dialogue inside the country."

Pinheiro said he has repeatedly called for the release of National League
for Democracy leader Aung San Suu Kyi and others held since May 30 attacks
on the opposition, adding that "in principle" his mission is scheduled for
November, but that he has to "weigh the developments of the situation
because it's not normal having Aung San Suu Kyi in prison."

"I am really very worried, and I expect that the authorities will
understand the situation and release Aung San Suu Kyi and her colleagues,"
he said.

Pinheiro also said he had received an explanation from the government for
the bugging of his interviews with political prisoners in March, but would
not provide details (Radio Free Asia, July 30).
__________

Agence France Presse July 31 2003

Myanmar general condemns new US sanctions as "human rights abuse"

One of Myanmar's top generals on Thursday lashed out at the United States
for introducing tough new sanctions, saying it was an "abuse of human
rights" which would result in social and moral decay.

"Trying to push the people of a nation into deep poverty like this is
abuse of human rights," military intelligence chief General Khin Nyunt was
quoted as saying in the state-owned New Light of Myanmar.

Khin Nyunt, one of the three senior generals who control the country, said
the ban on all imports from Myanmar would bring about "unemployment and
recession" and put women at risk of sexual exploitation.

"It is more likely that unscrupulous persons capitalising on the situation
will try to breed social and moral decay into young women," he said.

"Mostly, these people persuade young women into thinking highly of foreign
countries and smuggle them abroad."

Trafficking in humans, particularly young women destined for the sex
trade, is a serious problem in impoverished Myanmar and many other
regional nations.

Myanmar's military government Wednesday described the sanctions imposed by
US President George W. Bush this week in protest at opposition leader Aung
San Suu Kyi's continuing detention as "most regrettable"

The sanctions, effective from next month, include a ban on all imports
from the Southeast Asian nation worth about 356 million dollars annually
and are particularly aimed at the crucial textile trade in an economy
near-collapse.

The legislation also authorises the US president to aid Myanmar democracy
activists, freezes the regime's financial assets in US banks and property
in the United States, and widens a visa ban on Myanmar officials.

"This action will in no way be helpful to the relations between the two
nations," the junta said.

Aung San Suu Kyi was arrested after a junta-backed mob brutally attacked a
convoy she was travelling in on May 30. The ruling generals put the death
toll at four, but eyewitnesses say dozens were killed.

A crackdown on democracy activists countrywide since then has led to an
unknown number of arrests, while the party offices of Aung San Suu Kyi's
National League for Democracy (NLD) party have been shuttered.

Canada and the European Union have also imposed tougher sanctions on
Myanmar since Suu Kyi was taken into detention, while the impoverished
country's largest donor Japan has suspended new economic aid.

Before the latest row, Myanmar was already subject to sanctions because of
its poor human rights record and refusal to acknowledge 1990 elections won
in a landslide by the NLD.

REGIONAL

Network Media Group July 31 2003

Thai explains "road map" to Burma's democracy

July 30 (NMG)  Vice-president of Thailand's Foreign Affairs Commission of
House Committee, Kopsak Chugikhul gave an explanation on "Road Map" to
Burma's democracy in a meeting of "Economic development and Trade" which
was held at Mae Sot Hill Hotel on 30 July on the border town of Mae Sot.

The meeting organized by Lower House Committee Foreign Affairs Commission
of Thailand, invited businessmen as well as regional authorities.

In the meeting, Mr. Kopsak gave an account of the "Road Map" introduced by
Thailand, which contains a process that encompasses democratization, how
current military can benefit if they release Aung San Suu Kyi and how the
constitution of Burma should be cited and so forth.

Thailand, an immediate neighbor of Burma, is currently facing migrant
workers and influx of refugees from Burma. Unless Burmese military
government starts walking on national reconciliation process, the internal
communities including United Nations may impose various sanctions on Burma
and these measures will certainly effect on neighboring Thailand, Mr.
Kopsak said.

He also explained how Burmese organizations and international agencies
should cooperate in the proposed "Road Map". However no official details
were exposed in the meeting.

Thailand's Foreign Minister Surakiart Sathirathai recently hinted at
Asia-Europe Meeting at Bali that his government will introduce a "Road
Map" on Thursday when he meets Burmese Foreign Minister Win Aung along
with leaders of other "soft" countries in Thailand.

Thailand also had proposed a "Road Map" for the cause of Cambodia, Mr
Kopask said. Meanwhile Mr. Kopask added that Thailand will continue its
efforts to persuade Burma's generals to cooperate with the oppositions.
_______

Irrawaddy July 31 2003

Win Aung in Bangkok
By Naw Seng

Burmese Foreign Minister Win Aung arrived in Thailand today to discuss
regional economic cooperation and the influx of alien workers into the
Kingdom, as well as Thailand’s ‘road map’ for the release of opposition
leader Aung San Suu Kyi.

Delegates from Laos, Cambodia and Burma are in Bangkok for two days of
meetings, which began this afternoon. Analysts expect today’s session to
be dominated by discussions of Thailand’s ‘road map,’ which is aimed at
solving the political stalemate in military-ruled Burma.

Burmese analysts in Thailand believe the visit of Win Aung is part of a
ploy by the regime to forestall the release Suu Kyi and impugn further
progress on the restoration of democracy in Burma.

Nyo Ohn Myint, a member of National League for Democracy, Liberated Area
Foreign Affairs Committee, compared Win Aung to a "a clerk selling life
insurance that no one is interested in," as the Foreign Minister visits
countries throughout the region defending Rangoon’s prolonged detention of
the opposition leader.

Thus far, Burmese military authorities appear unwilling to accept the
‘road map’ forwarded by their neighbor. Deputy Foreign Minister Khin Maung
Win said the Burmese regime believes the current political stalemate is a
domestic issue, that should not concern outside governments. "Our belief
is that solutions for internal issues must be sought internally," he said.

Thailand’s Foreign Minister Surakiart Sathirathai admitted that any
resolution will depend on the actions of the Burmese. He told reporters,
"At the end of the day, it must be the people of Burma who decide which
way they want to take and what process they want to follow."

Some Burmese opposition in Thailand support the Bangkok’s proposal, unless
it results in further detention for Suu Kyi and postpones the
establishment of a new democratically elected administration in Burma. The
details of the ‘road map’ have not yet been released to the public.

According to the article published today in the junta’s mouthpiece, The
New Light of Myanmar, Burma should learn from the example of the Thais,
whose march to democracy was completed only after a century of strenuous
effort. "The transition for flourishing of democracy cannot be completed
overnight," the article said.
________

AFX.com July 31 2003

Philippines wants Aung San Suu Kyi freed before ASEAN Bali summit in Oct

  Philippines Foreign Secretary Blas Ople has urged Myanmar to release its
opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi before the Yangon leader flies to the
Indonesian resort of Bali for the next ASEAN heads of government summit
in October.
    The pro-democracy leader, a Nobel laureate, was placed under
"protective custody" after a junta-backed mob brutally attacked a
convoy she was travelling in on May 30.
    "It is my hope that Myanmar's decision to resolve the issue includes a
decision to release Suu Kyi and the members of the National League for
Democracy," Ople said in a statement.
________

Nation July 31 2003

PM to push Burma on peace road map idea

Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra yesterday expressed hope that visiting
Burmese Foreign Minister Win Aung would understand his determination to
come up with a peace road map despite the plan's cold reception from
Rangoon.

Win Aung is scheduled to arrive here today for a two-day meeting with his
counterparts from Laos, Cambodia and Thailand to discuss economic
cooperation to reduce the influx of foreign illegal workers into Thailand.

Thaksin said the government would explain Thailand's position on the road
map to Win Aung during the meeting.

Thailand has proposed that Burma draw up its own version of the road map
towards national reconciliation to show it is serious about improving
relations with its neighbour.

Foreign Minister Surakiart Sathirathai yesterday said that Thailand
considered the matter an internal affair of Burma.

"At the end of the day, it must be the people of Burma who decide which
way they want to take and what process they want to follow," he said.

Foreign Ministry spokesperson Sihasak Phuangketkeow said Thailand had
offered a proposal, but the road map itself must come from.
_________

Nation July 31 2003

Regional development talks begin here today

Foreign Ministers from Laos, Cambodia, Burma and Thailand are meeting
today in Bangkok to map out a strategy for integrated development.

Over two days, discussions will be held on cooperation in transportation,
tourism and human development, Foreign Affairs Ministry spokesman Sihasak
Phuangketkeow said yesterday.

Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra's idea of fostering relations by
twinning border cities would also be tabled, Sihasak said.

The meeting is being held to lay the groundwork for the scheme, which will
be discussed in depth during the four-nation summit scheduled to take
place in Pagan, Burma, in October, Sihasak added.

Thaksin had proposed the quadrilateral economic scheme during April's
Asean meeting on Sars.

The focus would be on developing border areas to provide jobs so illegal
migrants would not have to search for work all over Thailand.

Although 409,339 migrant workers from mainly Burma, Cambodia and Laos have
registered this year, the country has no effective way of handling the
influx of more than a million undocumented economic refugees the economy
has to absorb each year, Sihasak said.

ON THE BORDER

Network Media Group July 31 2003

Thai says no more Burmese visitors at border village

July 31 (NMG)  Thai authorities issued an order not to allow any Burmese
visitor to stay overnight at Thai-Burma border village near Mae Sariang in
northern Thailand soon after anti-government Burmese organizations were
asked either to relocate or shut down their offices in Mae Sariang, said
villagers from Mae Samplet village.

Local authorities in a recent meeting gave instructions to villagers of
Mae Samplet (Thaw Lae Hta) village on the bank of Salween River, which was
on a trade route for Burmese businessmen from Kayah and Karen State.

Thai officials including Commander of Border Security Forces
(Tha-Han-Phan) Battalions No. (36), village head of Thaw-Lae-Hta and Mayor
of Su Mawe ordered the villagers of Thaw-Lae-Hta not to allow any Burmese
visitors to stay overnight in the village, not to carry Burmese on their
boats operating along Salween river and allow only one night to stay for
the persons holding certificate from refugee camp, said a villager of
Thaw-Lae-Hta.

However the officials did not give any reason why this order had to issue.

Thaw-Lae-Hta, a village close to Manerplaw- the former strong base of
anti-government organizations such as Karen National Union (KNU) and
several pro-democratic groups who opposed Rangoon government- used to have
a sound atmosphere in the past. Although after Burmese government troops
overtook Manerplaw, some business activities were allowed to carry out
through the trade routes in Karen and Kayah States.

Due to mounted policies of international pressures especially led by US
and EU on Burmese regime, Thai government is worrying the possible influx
of refugees and migrant workers from Burma.

EDITORIAL/OPINION

Bangkok Post July 31 2003

What will it take to rescue Burma?

President George W. Bush of the United States imposed economic sanctions
on Burma on Monday when he signed into law the Freedom and Democracy Act.
Two days later, the military regime in Rangoon indicated that Aung San Suu
Kyi might be freed before the Asean summit in October. So, is a western
boycott of the repressive dictatorship working? Not really.

The State Peace and Development Council (SPDC), the junta ruling Burma
with an iron fist, has a history of making tall promises and falling short
on delivery. This time, it really only hinted at the possibility of
freeing the Nobel peace laureate. It would not say outright that she would
be released. It merely said the contentious issue of her detention would
be ``resolved''.

While Burma might enjoy the games it plays with the West by exploiting the
sympathies of neighbouring countries, the generals running the show in
Rangoon would be mistaken in believing that their recent troubles will go
away simply by stonewalling the rest of the world. The brutality of the
attack on Ms Suu Kyi's convoy on May 30, when government thugs, reportedly
including prisoners from Mandalay jail, clubbed and stabbed to death
around 70 democracy supporters, even stirred Asean into breaking its
long-standing rule of not interfering in the affairs of member nations. It
called for the release of the Burmese opposition leader, and Prime
Minister Mahathir Mohamad of Malaysia, who had been instrumental in
bringing Burma into Asean, went so far as to raise the possibility of
expelling Burma from the regional grouping.

The American sanctions will deprive Burma of about $350 million (14.68
billion baht) a year in earnings from exports to the US over a period of
three years. They also freeze the regime's financial assets in American
banks and ban its officials from entering the US. Burmese exports to
America are mostly garments. An estimated 100,000 textile workers might
lose their jobs, but the members of the junta, who have long had their
assets frozen, will not be directly affected.

The European Union has imposed similar sanctions. Together with the US
boycott, these will place a considerable strain on the Burmese economy.
However, the lion's share of Burma's trade is with India, China and
Thailand. As long as these countries continue to do business, the western
economic boycott is unlikely to bring down the regime, even if it does
force some short-term concessions.

The situation is the more worrying because many Burma watchers believe the
very nature of the well-planned attack on May 30 showed that the
hard-liners in the junta, led by Gen Than Shwe, the country's top leader,
may have won the internecine battle over moderates like Lt-Gen Khin Nyunt,
the powerful intelligence chief, on what to do with Ms Suu Kyi. The
hard-liners apparently decided that they did not need to engage in
reconciliation talks with the opposition leader.

That would be a serious miscalculation. A full-scale international boycott
of Burma, particularly one sanctioned by the United Nations, is quite
possible. In this event, Burma would become such an international pariah
that even Asean and China would have to reconsider their dealings with
Rangoon.

The SPDC appears to be uninterested in Thailand's proposal for a road map
to democracy in Burma. Though details of the road map are sketchy, it
should seek to entice the hard-liners into adopting a more moderate view.
The key condition to be put to the junta must be the unconditional release
of Ms Suu Kyi. As risible as some might regard the Thai road map, it is
possibly the last chance for the junta to settle a political conflict that
otherwise might prove its undoing.