BurmaNet News: September 4, 2003

[editor at burmanet.org]

September 4, 2003 Issue #2319

INSIDE BURMA
AP: U.N. envoy to visit Myanmar, check reports of hunger strike
AFP: US tells Myanmar to prove Aung San Suu Kyi not on hunger strike
AFP: Analysts sceptical over Suu Kyi hunger strike claims
AP: Indian delegation arrives in Myanmar on goodwill visit

REGIONAL
AFP: ASEAN to get nearly 400 million dollars in Australian aid
PTI: India considering rail link between New Delhi, Hanoi

INTERNATIONAL
CSM: Business targeted for rights abuse

EDITORIALS
Japan Times: Window dressing in Yangon
Korea Herald: Standing up to Burma's generals
SMH: Another False Dawn In Burma

----INSIDE BURMA----

Associated Press Worldstream   September 4, 2003
U.N. envoy to visit Myanmar, check reports of detained pro-democracy
leader's hunger strike

KUALA LUMPUR: A United Nations special envoy said Thursday he will visit
Myanmar to determine the accuracy of reports that pro-democracy leader
Aung San Suu Kyi is on a hunger strike protesting her current detention.

The U.S. State Department said Sunday that Suu Kyi was on a hunger strike,
but Myanmar's ruling junta later dismissed the claim as "groundless."

Razali Ismail, the U.N. envoy and a former Malaysian diplomat, said he
could not comment on the State Department statement because he had
received conflicting information, the Malaysian national news agency
Bernama cited him as saying.

"I cannot comment on this matter. It is sensitive and what I say can be
misinterpreted," Razali said during a university function in the northern
city of Penang. "One party says this and the other says something else,
and I cannot make a comment."

Razali did not say whether he would actually see Suu Kyi and it was
unclear when he planned to leave. He was not immediately available for
further comment.

Nobel Peace Prize winner Suu Kyi was detained by the government following
a clash between her supporters and a pro-government mob on May 30 that
left an unknown number of people dead. Razali was allowed to see her in
early June, but she has been isolated from outsiders since.

Razali played a role in securing Suu Kyi's release in May 2002 after more
than 18 months under house arrest, and he secured promises from the ruling
military junta to start reconciliation talks with Suu Kyi's National
League for Democracy party.

Members of the NLD have been unable to confirm whether she is on hunger
strike.

Myanmar, also known as Burma, has been ruled by the military since 1962.
The current junta came to power in 1988, and has faced widespread
international criticism for ignoring democracy and human rights.

The military government held elections in 1990, but refused to hand over
power when Suu Kyi's party won the vote.


Agence France Presse   September 4, 2003
US tells Myanmar to prove Aung San Suu Kyi not on hunger strike

The United States on Thursday challenged Myanmar's junta to disprove its
claim that democracy leader Aung San Suu Kyi was on hunger strike -- by
releasing her from detention.

But the State Department could not say whether the Nobel laureate was
still refusing food, though insisted it was confident of its sources when
it announced the Nobel laureate was on hunger strike on Sunday.

The US claim has triggered a string of fierce denials from Yangon's
military rulers, scepticism among some analysts and been contradicted by
Thailand, an American ally.

"The junta in Burma can easily and unambiguously resolve all these
concerns and reports, and resolve any questions by releasing her and, for
that fact, allowing international access," said State Department spokesman
Richard Boucher.

"We had credible information about Aung San Suu Kyi being on a hunger
strike," he added but refused to divulge the source for Sunday's claim.

"We had credible information that we believe that she was on a hunger
strike."

Asked whether Aung San Suu Kyi was still fasting, Boucher answered : "I
don't think I'm able to answer that question."

Officials said privately that they were wary of revealing if they had an
"ongoing" source near Aung San Suu Kyi's place of confinement, reportedly
in a Yangon military barracks.
"We had credible information on the day that we put out the statement that
she was starting a hunger strike, what I don't know is if we have gotten
further reporting after that," said a senior official.

Myanmar on Thursday said Aung San Suu Kyi was "physically well" and
charged that US claims that she was on a hunger strike were the result of
"spin doctors".

"The sudden but well-concerted appearance of a manufactured piece of news
relating to Aung San Suu Kyi's hunger strike is another glaring example of
spin doctors at work once again," the statement said.

The US announcement came a day after Myanmar's new prime minister General
Khin Nyunt delivered his seven-point plan for the country's shift towards
what he said was "democracy."

Thailand, which has expressed support for the plan, said Thursday that on
the basis of its intelligence reports it did not believe Aung San Suu Kyi
was on the strike.

Aung San Suu Kyi was detained after violence between her supporters and a
junta-backed mob as she made a political tour of the country's north.


Agence France Presse   September 4, 2003
Analysts sceptical over Suu Kyi hunger strike claims
By Pascale Trouillaud

Persistent US allegations that Myanmar opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi
is on hunger strike are dubious and could be a tactic to increase
international pressure on the Yangon junta, analysts said Thursday.

Washington repeated for the third time Wednesday claims that the Nobel
peace laureate is refusing food to protest against her three-month
detention, while Yangon hotly refutes the allegations. Between them,
somebody must be mistaken.

Analysts are stumped over the sources of the US information, as Aung San
Suu Kyi is being held incommunicado and not been seen by any independent
observers since July, when the International Committee of the Red Cross
(ICRC) was permitted to visit her.

Neither the United Nations nor Aung San Suu Kyi's National League for
Democracy (NLD) party have been able to confirm the hunger strike, while
the information is also unverifiable by diplomats.

"A hunger strike is possible but I don't think that it exists," said one
Yangon-based diplomat.

"She is being held incommunicado and since July 28 nobody has seen her, so
where could the information from the United States come from?

"The Americans themselves are not convinced. They are citing 'credible
sources' so they are not 100-percent certain."

The junta said in its latest statement Thursday that Aung San Suu Kyi was
"physically well".

When pressed for further information, the US embassy in Yangon, which
passed the original claims to the State Department, referred to the
statements issued from Washington.

The US State Department said Wednesday its claims were not made "on the
basis of flimsy information".

But the previous day it more cautiously noted: "Unfortunately, neither we
nor others in the international community have had access to her for some
time, and have not been able to make any first hand assessment of her
situation or condition."

Expressing his ongoing support Wednesday for Aung San Suu Kyi, US
Secretary of State Colin Powell did not specifically mention the claims.

And Thailand said Thursday that based on its intelligence reports, the
pro-democracy leader was not on a hunger strike.

Observers have noted the huge surge in rumours sweeping across Yangon over
the past few days. On Wednesday alone, there were unconfirmed sightings of
Aung San Suu Kyi visiting a military hospital and being driven to her
residence.

"Personally, I have some doubts (about the hunger strike), because I
cannot see very well what purpose it would serve, nor why she would
venture to do such a thing now," said a source close to the charismatic
leader.

"And people very close to the junta say it's not happening."

A family friend of Aung San Suu Kyi told AFP Wednesday he had heard she
was eating meals.

"She has a habit of fasting occasionally, but I hear she is having regular
meals now," he said.

Aung San Suu Kyi, a diminutive 58-year-old who has engaged in countless
battles with the junta during her 15-year fight for democracy and endured
two long periods of house arrest, has not typically used hunger strikes as
part of her campaign, experts point out.
Which leaves the question of why Washington has levelled the allegations.

"Perhaps as a way of mounting further pressure," the source close to Aung
San Suu Kyi said.

If the US allegations are ill-founded, the simplest way for Yangon to
prove so would be to show her or allow the ICRC or UN access to her, he
said.

UN special envoy Razali Ismail has requested that the junta allow him to
make another visit to Myanmar in mid-September, the source told AFP, "on
the condition of course that he would be permitted to see Aung San Suu
Kyi".

Razali last visited Yangon shortly after the May 30 violence between Aung
San Suu Kyi's supporters and a junta-backed mob that led to her detention.

Experts also underlined that the State Department first made its
allegations a day after Myanmar's new Prime Minister General Khin Nyunt
outlined a seven-point roadmap to democracy including "free and fair"
elections -- without mentioning the detained democracy leader.

"They managed to divert attention (away from the speech) by talk of the
hunger strike," said one diplomat.

"It is an American 'plan' to not allow the world to forget that there is a
serious problem remaining unresolved," he said, referring to Aung San Suu
Kyi's continued detention and growing global concern about her health.

Another local analyst said that if this was the intention of the United
States, then they have already suceeded beyond their expectations.

"The question of whether she has or has not gone on a hunger strike is
moot because the impact of it has already been felt all over the world,"
he said.


Associated Press Worldstream   September 4, 2003
Indian delegation arrives in Myanmar on goodwill visit

An Indian delegation led by navy Adm. Madhavendra Singh arrived in Myanmar
on Thursday for talks with the country's military leaders, diplomatic
sources said.

The four-member team is making the routine visit at the invitation of
Singh's Myanmar counterpart, Vice Adm. Kyi Min, an Indian Embassy official
said on customary condition of anonymity.

Singh will meet with Kyi Min and other military leaders as well as travel
north to the ancient city of Bagan and Myanmar's second-largest city,
Mandalay. The delegation will depart Saturday.

Relations between Myanmar and India were strained after Myanmar's military
crushed a pro-democracy uprising in 1988, but have improved since 2000
when official visits between the two countries were renewed.


----REGIONAL----

Agence France Presse   September 4, 2003
ASEAN to get nearly 400 million dollars in Australian aid

Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) countries are to receive
nearly 400 million dollars in development assistance from Australia this
year and next, it was announced here Thursday.

The funds from the ASEAN-Australia Development Cooperation Program (AADCP)
will support efforts by the Southeast Asian governments to "improve
economic governance and strengthen regional integration" six years after a
crippling financial crisis.

The announcement was made by Australian Trade Minister Mark Vaile in
discussions with his counterparts from ASEAN in the Cambodian capital of
Phnom Penh.
ASEAN groups Brunei, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysian, Myanmar, the
Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam.

Vaile said his government would also allocate some of the funds for new
projects aimed at promoting economic cooperation between both sides.

These include legal support for electronic commerce, mutual recognition of
skills and quality assurance systems for fish and agricultural products
from ASEAN countries, Vaile said.

"Australia is a strong supporter of ASEAN members integrating into one
market for goods, services and investment as we recognize the benefits
that can be derived from the removal of trade barriers, the easy transfer
of goods and services and labour mobility," the Australian delegation said
in a statement.

ASEAN trade ministers are to wrap up their meetings here later Thurday
after consultations with US businessmen.

They had also met this week with counterparts from Japan, China, South
Korea and India to boost the creation of free trade areas.


PTI news agency, New Delhi   September 4, 2003
India considering rail link between New Delhi, Hanoi

After starting work on a trilateral highway project to link Thailand and
Myanmar Burma with India, Prime Minister Atal Behari Vajpayee Thursday 4
September said government is considering a rail link to connect New Delhi
and Hanoi.

"Work has started on a trilateral highway project linking Thailand,
Myanmar and India... ellipsis as received under the Mekong-Ganga
cooperation, we are also looking at New Delhi to Hanoi rail link,"
Vajpayee said inaugurating the second India-ASEAN Business Summit here.


----INTERNATIONAL----

Christian Science Monitor (Boston, MA)    September 4, 2003
Business targeted for rights abuse
By Seth Stern Staff writer of The Christian Science Monitor
Case against Unocal tests whether big global firms can be sued for aiding
regimes, such as Burma, labeled as human-rights violators.

To make way for a natural gas pipeline, the Burmese military displaced
whole villages a decade ago, forced residents to work against their will,
and allegedly raped or murdered some who refused.

Those are the charges laid by some human rights groups. But instead of
targeting Burma's [Myanmar's] government, the victims of those alleged
abuses turned to a federal court in California for relief. They sued one
of Burma's corporate partners, the US oil company Unocal, using a
controversial 1798 statute that may have originally been designed to deal
with pirates.

The case has potentially far-reaching implications. To human rights
activists, it could set a precedent for efforts to crack down indirectly
on some of the world's worst regimes.

But business groups warn it could damage the engine of the world economy
by making corporate forays into the developing world riskier. And the Bush
administration is worried that US courts may wind up interfering with its
foreign policy as they deal with growing numbers of international
plaintiffs ranging from prisoners of war to torture victims.

The case is currently stalled behind the marbled-covered walls of the
Ninth US Circuit Court of Appeals here in San Francisco, which must decide
the pivotal question whether the lawsuit against Unocal can go to trial.
At the center of the controversy is the 205-year-old Alien Tort Claims Act
(ATCA) and whether it can be used to hold multinational corporations
liable for business partners' human rights abuses.

Dusting off an old statute

The statute is so old that legal experts aren't sure about its original
purpose. The act gives federal courts broad jurisdiction over violation of
"the law of nations or a treaty of the US." No legislative history
survives so the best guess is that it was originally intended to handle
suits against pirates and foreign diplomats.

ATCA was dusted off in the late 1970s by lawyers trying to haul individual
human rights abusers into American courts. Individuals from Paraguay to
the Philippines and the former Yugoslavia were found liable for torture
under the act during the 1980s.

In the 1990s, the next derivation of suits targeted corporations
extracting natural resources in developing countries - such as Texaco in
Ecuador, Shell in Nigeria, and Unocal in Burma.

The Unocal suit was filed in 1996 on behalf of 11 rural villagers by
Earthrights International, a human rights group in Washington and
Thailand. The suit charged that Unocal hired the Burmese military to
provide security during the construction of a natural gas pipeline,
despite knowing about the government's record of human rights abuses. It
also alleges the company knew about forced labor practices and benefitted
from them. A separate lawsuit against Unocal is pending in California
state court.

Federal trial courts dismissed the suits against Unocal as well as Texaco
and Shell on the grounds the companies didn't have a close enough
connection to the abuses. But a three-judge panel of Ninth Circuit judges
last year reversed a lower ruling and allowed the Unocal case to move
forward.

The Ninth Circuit panel found that the grounds to convict would be
sufficient if the company aided and abetted the Burmese military in
perpetrating abuses, as opposed to meeting the tougher standard, used by
the trial courts, of proving that the firm actually directed the abuses.

Red-lining rogue regimes?

Supporters say a successful suit resulting in money damages would force
companies to adopt stricter codes of conduct. It would also function as a
de facto sanction against a regime the US government has already tried to
isolate. "You would be, in effect, red-lining the most abusive regimes
from foreign investment," says Kenneth Rodman, a professor at Colby
College in Waterville, Maine.

The legal question coincides with other pressures on Unocal. On Tuesday,
the chief financial officers of New York State and California urged the
oil giant to pull its operations from Myanmar or assure shareholders that
the company complies with human rights protections.

Uncertainty for corporations

Business groups say companies shouldn't be held liable for the actions of
governments they can't control - particularly in unstable countries where
governments may change overnight. "It's guilt by association," says Daniel
O'Flaherty, vice president of the National Foreign Trade Council.

Other business groups warn that allowing the Unocal case go to trial could
open the floodgates to new lawsuits against corporations. Suits against
hundreds of companies that traded with apartheid-era South Africa are
still pending, The Institute for International Economics envisions a
"nightmare scenario" in which firms doing business in China could be sued
on the basis of that nation's treatment of political prisoners and the
environment.

Bush administration's view

Such concerns prompted the Bush administration to file a brief on behalf
of Unocal earlier this year. It argues allowing the case to go to trial
could interfere with US foreign policy and even disrupt the war on
terrorism.

"This is guerrilla warfare by interest groups using unconventional methods
to impose corporate responsibility," says Professor Rodman. "From the
vantage point of the State Department, where foreign policy is about
reconciling divergent national interests, this can be a significant
irritant."

Many legal experts say corporate fears are overblown. Courts remain wary
about applying ATCA broadly, they say.


----EDITORIALS----

The Japan Times   September 4, 2003
Window dressing in Yangon

Nothing quickens the blood of political analysts like leadership changes
in reclusive and secretive governments. The shuffle in the upper ranks of
Myanmar's governing junta is no exception. The big question is the effect
the changes will have on the fate of Ms. Aung San Suu Kyi, the imprisoned
Nobel Peace Prize laureate, and the frozen process of reconciliation with
prodemocracy forces. The likely answer: not much.

In the most recent moves, Gen. Than Shwe was replaced as Myanmar's prime
minister by Mr. Khin Nyunt, who was serving as "secretary one" of the
State Peace and Development Council, or SPDC, and head of the intelligence
service. Mr. Than Shwe retains the chairmanship of the SPDC and his post
as commander in chief of the armed forces. Lt. Gen. Soe Win, a protege of
Mr. Than Shwe, has been promoted from "secretary three" to replace Mr.
Khin Nyunt. Five other generals resigned from the Cabinet.

In fact, the shuffle appears to be a demotion for the new prime minister.
The post is primarily ceremonial anyway, as real power resides with the
SPDC and the military. It is unclear if Mr. Khin Nyunt remains head of the
intelligence service; if he has been replaced there, too, his fall from
power could be considered virtually complete.

Rumors of animosities among Myanmar's leadership are not new. There has
been endless speculation about the real source of the split: ambition,
complaints over division of the spoils, or friction over how to handle Ms.
Suu Kyi. The filing of treason charges last year against the family of
former dictator Ne Win is the most concrete sign of divisions within the
elite.

Mr. Khin Nyunt's fall could be related to that. He has been closely
associated with the late Ne Win, who reportedly played a key role in the
bloody suppression of prodemocracy demonstrations in Yangon in 1988. That
background seems ironic, though, since Mr. Khin Nyunt today is viewed as a
moderate voice within the SPDC and is thought to favor dialogue with
prodemocracy forces.

There is speculation that Mr. Khin Nyunt was named prime minister to put a
"friendlier" face on Myanmar's government at a time of increasing
international isolation. Such cosmetic changes are not unprecedented: In
1997, the junta dropped the evil-sounding SLORC - State Law and Order
Restoration Council - for the more benign SPDC.

With important regional meetings scheduled in the next few months, a
change could help the government's public relations efforts. Of course,
such differences should not be overestimated. All of the members of the
country's leadership are generals, and distinctions within their group are
more like shades of gray. It is generally believed that Mr. Than Shwe was
among those behind the May incident in which thugs attacked Ms. Suu Kyi's
motorcade. The arrest of Ms. Suu Kyi and other prodemocracy leaders then
sparked a nearly universal chorus of condemnation from the rest of the
world.

It is troubling that Lt. Gen. Soe, the new secretary one and the man
thought to have orchestrated the assault, has been publicly hostile to the
idea of negotiating with Ms. Suu Kyi. Yet even if Mr. Khin Nyunt is being
punished for his moderate views, the shuffle indicates that the ruling
junta is not impervious to international pressure. The move shows a need
to accommodate world opinion; thus it should reinvigorate those who argue
that pressure has its purpose. This is especially important for Japan, the
largest aid donor to Myanmar.

Despite its reluctance to use leverage against the regime, Tokyo has
frozen new aid to Myanmar until Ms. Suu Kyi is released. Japan provided
some Dollars 17 million in economic aid and technical assistance last
year, but alone it cannot bring about change. Fortunately, this country
does not have to.

The outrage here is matched by that felt in other Western capitals and,
most significantly, throughout Southeast Asia. The SPDC has embarrassed
the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, which had argued that quiet
engagement was the best method to bring about reform in Myanmar. The
assaults on Ms. Suu Kyi and her entourage this spring are proof that the
ruling junta was not serious about the dialogue with prodemocracy forces
and had no intention of surrendering power.

There can only be one measure of the intent of the government in Yangon:
its willingness to release Ms. Suu Kyi and move forward with the process
of reconciliation. The shuffles among the leadership are mere
distractions. The rest of the world must focus on what really matters.
Everything else is window dressing.


The Korea Herald   September 4, 2003
Standing up to Burma's generals

The long-running military dictatorship in Burma is facing new challenges
as it struggles to stay in power.

After last week's passing by the U.S. Congress of a new law banning
imports from Burma and the freezing of its overseas assets, pro-democracy
leader Daw Aung San Suu Kyi has started a hunger strike demanding release
from her unlawful detention.

Statements from the U.S. and European Union leaders that they will hold
the Rangoon government responsible for her safety and health has injected
a note of urgency into the international support for Burma's fight for
democracy. As a fellow Asian country that has shared similar political
hardships under military rule in the past, the administration of President
Roh Moo-hyun can scarcely ignore this development. It must lose no time
issuing statements condemning the junta leaders and joining the sanctions
imposed by the United States and European Union. The Nobel laureate (1991)
has been held incommunicado since the end of May, when a group of
government-mobilized thugs attacked her convoy allegedly for disrupting
the public peace. The real reason, of course, was to keep her in detention
so that they could stop her from reactivating the opposition National
League for Democracy, which won the general elections in 1990 but has been
denied the right to form a government.

Burma, renamed as Myanmar by the military rulers, has remained tragically
locked in backwardness and underdevelopment ever since the late general Ne
Win seized power in 1962 and imposed a "Burmese road to socialism." Since
then, as most military dictatorships in Asia have been removed in the
so-called decades of democratization in the 1980s and 1990s, the winds of
freedom have bypassed Burma because of its isolation from the mainstream
stage of Asian development. Even though the Philippines, South Korea,
Thailand and Indonesia all managed to move away from army-run
dictatorships into civilian-based free governments, Burma alone has
languished in the shadows, swallowing the indignity as the only country in
the world that has turned backward in the last century, from being the
richest country in Southeast Asia to one of its poorest after
independence. But Burma has hope because it possesses a leader of Aung San
Suu Kyi's caliber. Not only has the military government failed to make her
bow with six years of house arrest (during which she was unable to attend
to her dying husband in London), she has developed an infinite capacity to
forgive her tormentors. Even from the isolation of her prison cell, she
has never ceased to call for reconciliation with the military rulers based
on forgiveness. Ironically, the more forgiving she sounds, the more
distrustful the generals in power become. Having slaughtered thousands of
people in the 1990 pro-democracy upheavals, and still holding at least two
thousand others for supporting the National League for Democracy, they
fear reprisals after relinquishing power. They have watched the misery
that befell Korean generals like Chun Doo-hwan and Roh Tae-woo, who went
to prison on charges of treason, atrocities and corruption.

But for their longer-term interest, it would be wise to accept Suu Kyi's
call for reconciliation now rather than later. The State Peace and
Development Council, the ruling military junta, is developing cracks, with
generals divided between moderate and hardline groups. Lt. Gen. Khin
Nyunt, the new prime minister, is among pragmatists and moderates
preferring a dialogue with NLD in order to break out of the isolation and
sanctions that squeeze the already bad economy. But generals Than Shwe and
Maung Aye, respectively chairman and vice chairman of the SPDC, take the
hardline, refusing any compromise with the NLD. To deal with the emergency
of saving her life and seeking her release, the ASEAN (Association for
Southeast Asian Nations) group should intervene quickly and more
forcefully to restrain such hardliners in Rangoon, raising the possibility
of canceling its foreign ministers' conference there in 2006. Since Burma
was admitted into ASEAN in 1997 in the name of keeping it "constructively
engaged" with its neighbors, it has turned into a major diplomatic
embarrassment, especially to Malaysian Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad,
who advocated this policy.

It would be hard for Malaysia or Thailand, Burma's immediate neighbor, to
argue against sanctions now. Sanctions, despite their critics, hurt the
Burmese economy badly as the U.S. and Europe withhold vital aid programs.
Only Japan has broken from the ranks to resume non-humanitarian assistance
while South Korea has nonchalantly allowed a few private companies to
invest in Rangoon. That's a shame, given the fact that such deviation only
encourages the military regime to ignore the pressure for relaxation.

Burma relies on China and India to keep its moribund economy from
collapsing, so ASEAN should use its leverage as a regional bloc to press
them into stopping trade with Rangoon. As long as it has India and China
on its side, Rangoon is unlikely to suffer the bite. But they do have soft
spots, too. At stake is India's reputation as the region's oldest (and
largest) democracy, while China, scheduled to host the 2008 Olympic Games,
must stop its image from getting further tarnished with support for a
distasteful regime like the one in Rangoon.

That makes Burma a collective burden, not just for ASEAN members, but for
all Asian countries. Shim Jae Hoon is a Seoul-based journalist and
commentator. - Ed.


Sydney Morning Herald   September 5, 2003
Another False Dawn In Burma

Burma's new Prime Minister, Khin Nyunt, promises to bring democratic
reforms. He cannot be believed. General Khin Nyunt is Burma's former
military intelligence chief, a man seasoned in the dirty game of torture,
intimidation, incarceration and extrajudicial killings, all of which have
helped maintain the military's absolute hold on political power.
He might be more subtle than other generals who believe Burma's democracy
movement can be cowed by force. The violent confrontation in May which led
to the rearrest of the Nobel peace laureate Aung San Suu Kyi and the
deaths of at least 70 of her followers was ordered by the hardline faction
of General Soe Win. General Khin Nyunt, who is more pragmatic, favours
quietly weakening the pro-democracy opposition by dividing and exhausting
its long-suffering members.

Factional tensions within the ruling military elite might exist, but
should not be overstated. These are questions of tactics, not substance.
The common goal of all factions in the ruling elite remains unchanged to
maintain the military's monopoly on political and economic power.

The appointment of General Khin Nyunt seems to be a clumsy attempt to
soften the junta's tainted international image. The May crackdown on Ms
Suu Kyi revived intense diplomatic pressure on the regime. More punitive,
however, was the subsequent tightening of economic sanctions by the United
States, Japan and Europe. Some foreign aid and trade had been briefly
restored last year after the junta promised, then later reneged on, a
power-sharing deal with the pro-democracy movement. Last month's cabinet
shake-up smacks of a ploy to reopen access to desperately needed foreign
funds.
There have been too many false dawns for democracy in Burma. It has been
13 years since Ms Suu Kyi's National League for Democracy won a landslide
victory in the national elections called after international condemnation
of a military massacre of student protesters. Power was never transferred.
It has been more than four decades since the military first took power in
a coup. Too many of those who have stood up to embrace promised reforms
have been jailed or killed in political crackdowns. It is still prudent to
doubt the junta's intent now.

Until real and durable political reforms are put in place, Australia
should reconsider its futile policy of positive engagement. It should join
other Western nations in shunning Burma's generals and add its voice to
the international concern for Ms Suu Kyi's safety as she continues her
hunger strike in detention.