BurmaNet News Oct 21, 2003

[editor at burmanet.org]

October 21, 2003 Issue #2351

INSIDE BURMA
IOL: Myanmar condemns US 'interference' at Apec
Irrawaddy: Motor Vehicle Tax Enforced
Irrawaddy: Prepaid Internet Access Launched

ON THE BORDER
Shan: Junta troops call off Karen offensive

DRUGS
BBC Monitor: Two Chinese Among Eight Arrested In Burmese Heroin Haul

BUSINESS / MONEY
Bangkok Post: Unocal Chief Sees Expanded Role for Thailand, Asia
The Telegraph: Grain corridor from Myanmar

REGIONAL
AP: China ready to help reconciliation process in Myanmar
Nation: Asean asks Thaksin to seek Suu Kyi’s release
Japan Economic Newswire: Koizumi asks Myanmar to make efforts to free Suu Kyi

INTERNATIONAL
AFP: Myanmar's junta escapes US tongue-lashing at APEC summit

OPINION / OTHER
The Straits Times: Will Yangon's road map lead to reconciliation?


----INSIDE BURMA----

Oct 21, IOL
Myanmar condemns US 'interference' at Apec

Yangon - Myanmar's, formerly Burma, ruling junta on Tuesday condemned the
United States for using the Asia Pacific Economic Co-operation (Apec)
summit in Bangkok as a grandstand to support opposition leader Aung San
Suu Kyi.

"The government of Myanmar was disappointed to hear that, during the Apec
summit, the United States opposed Myanmar's progress toward democracy and
continued to advocate policies which undermine Myanmar's social, political
and economic stability," a government statement said.

After a meeting with Thai Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra on Sunday,
American President George Bush urged Apec nations to support the return of
democratic rule in Myanmar, and release Nobel Peace laureate Suu Kyi from
house arrest.

"We care deeply about Aung San Suu Kyi and her status, and we would like
to see her free," Bush said.

'We care deeply about Aung San Suu Kyi and her status, and we would like
to see her free'
Those sentiments were echoed by Filipino Foreign Minister Blas Ople, who
was also attending the meeting.

He called on Thaksin, who has defended the Myanmar junta in the past, to
use his influence to help secure Suu Kyi's release.

"The leaders of Asean (Association of Southeast Asian Nations) asked Prime
Minister Thaksin to be the Asean spokesman on Myanmar during the Apec
summit," Ople told reporters. "Burma should release Aung San Suu Kyi
immediately to signal its seriousness in political reconciliation."

In its statement on Tuesday, the Myanmar junta criticised the US for
imposing economic sanctions aimed at pressuring the generals to allow
democratic reforms.

"The government urges Washington to put aside these self-defeating
policies and instead focus on ways to achieve positive goals," it said.
"Instead of relying on easy platitudes, we encourage Washington to
understand Myanmar's complex political culture."

Myanmar has been under a series of military governments since 1962.
____________________________________________

Oct 21, Irrawaddy
Motor Vehicle Tax Enforced

Burma’s Road Transport Department has ordered that the 15 percent tax on
motor vehicles be strictly enforced, while motorists in the country are
still refusing to pay.

For decades, car buyers have been required to pay a tax of around 15
percent on the vehicle’s purchase price, but most people have found ways
to evade the payment.

In Rangoon's car market, prices are down, but so is demand.

On Oct 6, the Road Transport Department started ordering car owners to pay
the tax when they renewed their vehicle licenses, but did not make any
public announcement. Officials have since confirmed that procedures are in
place for the tax to be collected, but refused to release any more
details.

A motorist in Rangoon said that in order to determine a new tax rate, the
department has organized officials to assess the current value of all
motor vehicles that apply for license renewals. The assessors have
categorized seven groups of cars depending on their current price, with
taxes ranging from 300,000 to 10.5 million kyat (US $1 = 912 kyat).

The current price of a 2000 Toyota Landcruiser or Mitsubishi Pajero is
more than one billion kyat (about US $109,000), he said. Those vehicles
are categorized in the seventh tax group and incur the highest tax burden,
almost 10.5 million kyat (about US $11,500).

 As the motorist explained, he would be charged 1.5 million kyat in tax
today, even though he bought the car for just two million kyat in 1999.
On current prices, his vehicle is valued at around 14 million kyat.


"The order is not practical," said the car owner, who has so far avoided
paying any vehicle taxes. As the motorist explained, he would be charged
1.5 million kyat in tax today, even though he bought the car for just two
million kyat in 1999. His vehicle is worth around 14 million kyat in
today’s market.

Car prices have risen dramatically in recent years due to the falling
value of the kyat and government restrictions on small-time importers.
Since 1994, the military-owned Union of Myanmar Economic Holdings has been
the only legal importer of motor vehicles.

A Rangoon taxi owner said he doesn’t know how the government will act
against widespread tax evasion. Because his vehicle is worth around 12
million kyat, he owes 1.5 million kyat in tax. He expects the government
will reconsider the tax once they see that no one can afford to pay.

The government order on motor vehicles has destabilized market prices.
Sources in Rangoon say car prices have dropped by about 20 percent since
officials started to enforce the tax this month. Despite the fall in
prices, there is virtually no demand and two car dealers in the capital
reported that business has stalled.
____________________________________________

Oct 21, Irrawaddy
Prepaid Internet Access Launched

Burma’s main Internet service provider has introduced prepaid kits for
access to the World Wide Web which can be used by anyone in Burma with
access to a computer and telephone line. However, users are still
prohibited from visiting certain Internet sites.

Bagan Cybertech, which is partly owned by Burma’s military government,
launched the "Access Prepaid Dial-up Kit" at last week’s Information and
Communication Technology exhibition in Rangoon. Chaw Su Wai, a senior
marketing executive from Bagan Cybertech, said 300 kits were sold in the
first four days. "We want people to use our technology," she said.

 All of Burma’s Internet traffic passes through government servers, which
restrict users from viewing sites banned by the regime’s censors.

The prepaid kits retail at between 8,000 and 28,000 kyat (roughly US $8
and $28). Users can opt for 15 hours of access to be used within three
months, or pay more for 60 hours to be used over six months. Bagan
Cybertech is selling the kits at Internet cafés and computer shops in
Rangoon and Mandalay.

A salesperson from the Cyber World Internet café in Rangoon expects that
the new kits will continue to sell well because they are easy to use and
better value than other deals offered by Bagan Cybertech and the state-run
Myanmar Posts and Telecommunications. The new prepaid kits are also more
convenient because users no longer have to register their accounts with
the government. Private and business users still have to register their
modems.

Pro-democracy websites, pornography and free email accounts like Hotmail
and Yahoo! are still out of bounds, said a Rangoon resident who purchased
a Bagan Cybertech kit last week. The source in Rangoon said he was
surprised he could visit the sites of the Bangkok Post and The Nation, two
quality English-language newspapers from Thailand, which were previously
off limits.

All of Burma’s Internet traffic passes through government servers, which
restrict users from viewing sites banned by the regime’s censors.

Users have already complained to Bagan Cybertech about the restrictions on
some sites. "Eighty percent of our customers are satisfied," Chaw Su Wai
said, downplaying the consumer protest.

Most computer users in Burma will still have difficulties getting online
because of the high price of installing a phone line. In Burma, a new
landline phone connection costs around three million kyat.

Burma’s military government allowed limited email and Internet access in
2001, with the first Internet café opening in Rangoon in May this year.
Bagan Cybertech started in 2002 and is headed by Ye Naing Win, the son of
Prime Minister Gen Khin Nyunt.

----ON THE BORDER----

Oct 21, Irrawaddy
Eleven prisoners being used as porters by the Burma Army escaped to the
Karen National Liberation Army’s (KNLA) 101st battalion on Sunday.

The porters said they fled because they feared stepping on a landmine. The
men escaped during the night, alone or in groups of two, and met Karen
soldiers in the jungle. The KNLA soldiers escorted the porters to their
nearby camp.

Escaped Burma Army porters in a KNLA camp.

The eleven were from Thayawaddy and Maubin prisons. Most were imprisoned
for selling tickets for Thailand’s underground three digit lottery in
Burma.

Zaw Win, a 46 year-old father of six who fled to the KNLA, said he started
selling the tickets because he did not have enough money to feed his
family. He was arrested even though he routinely paid bribes to the
police, and was sentenced to two years in prison.

Many poor Burmese sell the tickets for daily food money, said Aung Min Oo,
19, who fled along with Zaw Win. "Since they need the manpower in the
frontier, they arrest the people," he said. "They made us go in the
front."

The Burma Army and Democratic Karen Buddhist Army (DKBA) have been
attacking the KNLA outpost in Karen State’s Hlaing Bwe Township since
October 13, said KNLA officials.

The KNLA is the military wing of the Karen National Union (KNU). The DKBA
are a KNU splinter group which signed a ceasefire with Burma’s military
government.

More then 1,000 prisoners were brought by the Burma Army to the Karen
State capital of Pa-an from Thayawaddy and Maubin prisons during the last
month, the porters said.

 “As Burmese, they should not treat us like wild animals.”—Aung Min

Kyaw Lwin Oo, 29, said he was brought to Pa-an from Thayawaddy prison.

"I had to carry 35 viss (52.5 kg) of mortar shells for about 7 days," he
said. "On the way our group stepped on a landmine. Three men died on the
spot." He fled to the KNLA, who removed shrapnel from his chest and knee.

Porters were subjected to bullying from the soldiers, said Aung Min, 50.
"As Burmese, they should not treat us like wild animals," he said.
"Soldiers my son’s age used obscene language and beat me."

The Burmese government denies that its military uses porters to carry
supplies for soldiers and walk ahead of troops to trigger landmines.

Most of the prisoners taken to the frontier are the poor, according to the
porters. Those with money to bribe prison officers were excluded from
duty.

Some of the porters said that Thayawaddy prison houses dozens of political
prisoners.

"When the International Committee of the Red Cross visited Thayawaddy
prison, we had only one meal of bean soup," said Aung Minn. "We had to lie
to the Red Cross so we got good food and avoided torture."
____________________________________________

Oct 21, Shan
Junta troops call off Karen offensive

Rangoon has since yesterday (20 October) suspended its two and a half
month long operations against the Karen rebels and are withdrawing its
troops well beyond firing range, according to Karen resistance spokesman.

“They have retreated without capturing their coveted objective, the 7th
Brigade headquarters,” said Saw Sarky. “Throughout the offensive, the
enemy was able to breach only our first line of defense at Lay Day.

"Even if our brigade command post were captured, it would not have been
more than a fruitless exercise as our troops had already set up several
alternative bases to operate from.”

Altogether, Rangoon had employed 9 battalions plus two heavy weapons units
under Hmawbi-based Military Operations Command #4 and elements from
pro-Rangoon Democratic Karen Buddhist Army’s 999th Brigade as well as
907th Independent Battalion as auxiliaries. Burmese casualities, 1
August-19 October, were 104 killed and 213 wounded. Among those killed was
Lt-Col Aye Kyaw, Commander of Light Infantry Battalion 701, who was
seriously wounded on 30 September.

On the Karen National Liberation Army’s side, the losses were
“negligible”, only 9 wounded but 3 of them in serious conditions. The
figures, however, could not be independently confirmed.

The 7th Brigade, considered the strongest unit in the KNLA, was previously
commanded by Gen Bo Mya.

----DRUGS----

October 21, BBC Monitoring International Reports
Two Chinese Among Eight Arrested In Burmese Heroin Haul

Acting on information, a combined team comprising members of the local
intelligence unit and the Muse Anti-Drug Squad searched House No 48 of Ma
Mar Ti in Kaungmulwai Ward, Muse, at 0930 (local time) on 25 August 2003.

The authorities arrested six persons - Ye Win (a) Lauk Hai, Ar Ta, Jian Yi
Myint, Gao Tuan Myint, Myin Chun, and Rau Ta Chan, who were at the house -
and seized 144 blocks of heroin and 273 packages of heroin weighing 774 g
total and paraphernalia kept in a backpack under the bed.

The team also arrested two persons - Ma Jia Ma Li and Ma Ai Bi San of He
Tian, Xinjiang Province, China, who were in a room of the house - and
seized 2.859 kg of heroin buried in a garden at the back of the house.

It has been learned that the Muse Police Station has opened the case and
taken actions against the defendants under the First Narcotics Information
Report No 106/2003 in accordance with the Narcotics Drugs and Psychotropic
Substances Law.

Source: TV Myanmar, Rangoon, in Burmese 1330 gmt 20 Oct 03

----BUSINESS / MONEY----

Oct 21, Bangkok Post
Unocal Chief Sees Expanded Role for Thailand, Asia

The US energy company Unocal Corp is deepening its presence in Thailand
with the intention of spending at least US$ 4 billion over the next seven
years, in addition to the $ 7 billion the company and its partners have
spent locally over the past 40 years.
Thailand is high on Unocal's agenda in Asia, a region that now accounts
for 41 percent of its global reserves and production, said Unocal chairman
and CEO Charles Williamson.

Speaking on the sidelines of the Apec CEO Summit in Bangkok, he also made
clear that the company was not considering withdrawing its controversial
investment in the Yadana gas project in Burma, as opponents of the Rangoon
military regime have demanded.

Unocal spends about $ 1.8 billion a year on capital expenditures for its
global ventures, including $ 800 million in Asia, including Thailand,
Bangladesh, China, Indonesia and Vietnam.

"Going forward, we probably will increase production [in Asia] in the next
few years to over 50 percent [of Unocal's total output] and by doing that
it will require a large part of our capital investment," he said in an
interview with the Bangkok Post.

Unocal and its partners last week agreed to amend and extend the sales
contracts for natural gas produced from the Gulf of Thailand to PTT Plc,
which will further extend Unocal's presence at least over the next decade
or so.

The agreements essentially call for Unocal to raise contracted gas
deliveries from Erawan, Thailand's first offshore gas field, and the
Unocal 2/3 fields to PTT to 1,240 million cubic feet per day (MMcfd) from
740 MMcfd at present.

The company would also grant discounts to PTT for increasing the
contractual purchasing volume of gas, which will be stepped up to 850
MMcfd in 2006 on completion of PTT's third transmission pipeline, rising
to 1,240 MMcfd in subsequent years.

Both sides also agreed to extend the 30-year Erawan gas sale contract, due
to expire in 2012, and the 25-year Unocal 2/3 accord, due to end in 2010,
probably by another 10 years. Details are to be finalised next year.

Earlier this month, UNOCAL agreed to grant a 3 percent discount to PTT in
return for PTT increasing its gas purchases from the Pailin field in the
Gulf of Thailand to 353 from 330 MMcfd as of this month.

But after the completion of PTT's third gas trunk line in the Gulf in
early 2006, PTT will step up Pailin purchases to 368 MMcfd and the
discount will rise to 5 percent.

Mr Williamson said Unocal's Thai operation had been stepped up to meet
rising natural gas demand and make up for the depleted reserves. The
Unocal group will have to drill as many as 230-240 wells a year, up from
the previous average of 100 to 130 he said.

Unocal currently produces 1,100 MMcfd of natural gas, generating about 30
percent of Thailand's supply.

Mr Williamson said the company would continue to look for new exploration
and production opportunities in Thailand through acquisitions and bidding
for new licences. However, he declined to say whether Unocal was
interested in acquiring Thai Shell Exploration and Production's S1 oil
producing concession in northern Thailand, which includes the 20,000
barrel per day (b/d) Sirikit field.

Though Unocal is working to double oil production from fields in the Gulf
from the current 22,000-23,000 b/d)in 2005, natural gas will remain its
main business.

"Realistically, we don't think there is much potential for oil [in the
Thai Gulf]," he said.

On Unocal's investment in Burma's Yadana project, in which it has 28
percent stake, Mr Williamson said: "We still believe in what we are doing
for that country. We know that Thailand needs the gas, and from the
perspective of shareholders, it is a profitable project. Frankly, we are
proud of the social and economic projects they have done along the
pipeline there. We still believe engagement is the right method.

"We are not politicians but we would like to see more reconciliation
(between the Rangoon regime and Aung Sun Suu Kyi) in that country and we
understand there is something that needs to be changed there. I believe it
is much better for us to stay engaged. I do hope Asean continues to push
Burma for more reconciliation and release of [Aung San] Suu Kyi," he said,
referring to the Nobel Peace Prize laureate and leader of the National
League for Democracy.

UNOCAL was not looking at expanding its business in Burma aside from the
current deliveries of 500 MMcfd of gas to Thailand, Mr Williamson said.
____________________________________________

Oct 20, The Telegraph
Grain corridor from Myanmar

New Delhi, Oct. 20: India plans to import 50,000 tonnes of rice from
Myanmar for distribution through the public distribution system in the
north-eastern states.

The rice imports have been planned despite the fact that the country is
sitting on a food mountain which includes a stock of 8 million tonnes of
rice in its silos and another 10 million tonnes that it is set to buy in
the current year.

The cabinet, which is likely to clear the move tomorrow, is being told by
the food ministry that this would work out cheaper than transporting rice
from Punjab or Haryana where most of the stock is kept because of the
distances involved and the fact that Northeast is badly served by rail
links.

However, the move, which would cost the government about $12 million, is
really being taken up as part of an attempt by the Union government to
build bridges with the military regime ruling the nation.

Relations between the Indian government and the Myanmarese military junta
had cooled off over the latter’s belief that India was aiding and
sheltering pro-democracy activists.

While India does lend a degree of support for pro-democracy activists,
some of whom have found safe haven here, it has in the past tried to rein
them in to placate the military rulers who are seen as being too close to
China for India's comfort.

Top officials said, “This will not be the first or the last trade with
Myanmar. We feel if the cabinet approves of the move this could easily be
made a regular feature.”

India has always had troubled relations with Myanmar ever since the
military junta took over in the 1950s through a coup d'etat and expelled a
large number of Indians living and working there. However, co-operation in
controlling ethnic insurgency in the border provinces of both nations
through the late 1980s and the 1990s saw better relations between the two.

News that the Chinese were building a naval base on Myanmarese soil also
did not help relations between the two nations.

However, recent exchanges have revealed to Indian strategists that Myanmar
is desperate for foreign exchange and is willing to offer ports, road
links, and even tea acres to India in exchange for hard cash. As tribal
insurgency in Myanmar's northern provinces rules out any attempt to take
on these offers, India is trying to work out ways of doing profitable
trade with Myanmar which will help it gain a diplomatic lever over its
eastern neighbour.

----REGIONAL----

Oct 21, AP
China ready to help reconciliation process in Myanmar

China, the most important ally of Myanmar's military regime, is prepared
to help break the deadlock between the ruling junta and pro-democracy
forces in that country, a Thai Foreign Ministry spokesman said Tuesday.

The Chinese, said spokesman Sihasak Phuangketkeow, were ready to join
other Southeast Asian countries in fostering a reconciliation if the
Myanmar government agrees.

Sihasak said the offer was voiced during a meeting between Chinese Foreign
Minister Li Zhaoxing and his Thai counterpart Surakiart Sathirathai. They
met on the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit,
where the Myanmar issue was discussed among some of the 21 participating
world leaders.

Despite tough international criticism, Myanmar, also known as Burma, has
refused to negotiate with the pro-democracy party of Aung San Suu Kyi.

The 1991 Nobel Peace Prize winner has been under house arrest since Sept.
26, after spending a week in the hospital for an operation for a
gynecological condition. Before that, she was held incommunicado at an
undisclosed location.

The military regime has made no mention of a role for Suu Kyi and her
National League for Democracy when it unveiled a vague road map toward
democracy in August. Western nations insist that the NLD is included in
any future government.

"China said it was ready to push the (reconciliation) issue forward ... if
Myanmar agreed," Sihasak said.

China, he said, supported a Thai proposal for a meeting to be hopefully
held before the end of the year at which the Myanmar government would
explain the road map and try to get the international community involved
with the process. Myanmar Prime Minister Khin Nyunt has in principle
agreed to attend such a meeting.

China has been a major political, economic and military supporter of
Myanmar. It is a major arms supplier and is Myanmar's third-largest
trading partner after Thailand and Singapore.

Beijing welcomed the road map when it was announced, urging the
international community to stop pressuring the Myanmar regime to speed up
reforms and let the country resolve its own problems.

The junta came to power in 1988 after brutally crushing a pro-democracy
movement. It called elections in 1990 but has refused to hand over power
to Suu Kyi's party despite its overwhelming victory.

Myanmar's friends in Southeast Asia including Thailand have urged it to
release Suu Kyi and take steps toward democratization. But Southeast Asian
countries have been reluctant to put undue pressure on the regime, with
the exception of the Philippines.

"Burma should release Aung San Suu Kyi immediately to signal its
seriousness in political reconciliation, and to give credibility to its
so-called road map," Blas Ople, Philippine foreign secretary, said in an
interview with The Nation.

Ople said the 10-member Association of Southeast Asian Nations has called
on Thai Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra to use the APEC summit to demand
that the Myanmar regime release Suu Kyi.

U.S. Secretary of State Colin Powell, who is also at the summit, has
likewise urged Southeast Asian countries to use "all tools at their
disposal" to push for democracy in Myanmar.

"It's in their neighborhood and I think that all the nations of the world
especially the nations of ASEAN should do everything they can using all
the tools at their disposal to push for democracy in Burma," he said.
____________________________________________

Oct 21, Nation
Asean asks Thaksin to seek Suu Kyi’s release

The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (Asean) has called on Prime
Minister Thaksin Shinawatra to use the Apec summit to demand that the
Burmese junta release opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi.

“The leaders of Asean asked Prime Minister Thaksin to be the Asean
spokesman on Myanmar [Burma] during the Apec summit,” said Blas Ople,
foreign minister of the Pilippines.

“[Suu Kyi] is still under house arrest,” Ople told The Nation in an
exclusive interview.

Thaksin hosted a working lunch on Sunday with leaders from seven of the 10
Asean countries ahead the Apec summit. Burma, Laos and Cambodia are not
Apec members.

Ople said the request for the release of Suu Kyi would be noted in the
chairman?s statement, to be issued after the Apec meeting today.

“Burma should release Aung San Suu Kyi immediately to signal its
seriousness in political reconciliation, and to give credibility to its
so-called road map,” Ople said.

In August, the Burmese junta proposed a seven-point road map as a
political gesture to manifest its intention to resume the national
reconciliation process and bring about democracy.

The Philippines has a firm stance on the political deadlock in Burma and
has demanded the release of Suu Kyi. Ople personally took a leading role
in pressuring the ruling Burmese junta during the Asean ministerial
meeting in Phnom Penh in June.

By urging the release of Suu Kyi, Asean broke its cherished
non-intervention principle. But it also irked Western powers when it
acknowledged Burma?s road map for democracy and hailed it as a ?positive
development?.

Suu Kyi recently returned home after being discharged from a Rangoon
hospital, where she had undergone surgery.

The junta allows her only limited visits.

US President George W Bush also called for the release of Suu Kyi during
the Apec summit. Washington reacted to her detention by imposing trade
sanctions on Burma and freezing the assets of the Burmese government.

Japanese Foreign Minister Yoriko Kawaguchi also used the summit to call
for her release. Japan, a key donor to Burma, has ceased all financial
assistance for development projects.

Thailand and Indonesia have adopted softer stances on Burma and praised
the Burmese military junta for making ?real? progress.

US Secretary of State Colin Powell said Asean could use different
approaches to achieve the same goal.
____________________________________________

Oct 21, Japan Economic Newswire
Koizumi asks Myanmar to make efforts to free Suu Kyi

Japanese Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi expressed a 'strong hope'
Tuesday that the Myanmar junta will make efforts to release pro-democracy
leader Aung San Suu Kyi from house arrest.

'I have requested (Myanmar) Prime Minister Khin Nyunt to exercise stronger
leadership on the release of Ms. Aung San Suu Kyi and democratization. I
strongly hope Myanmar will make efforts to that end,' Koizumi said when
asked about Japan's stance on the issue at a press conference in Bangkok
after attending an Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation forum summit.

Koizumi made the request when he met Khin Nyunt early this month on the
Indonesian resort island of Bali on the sidelines of talks between leaders
of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations and Japan, China and South
Korea.

At that time Khin Nyunt was quoted by Japanese officials as responding to
Koizumi that he is aware of international concerns and is putting utmost
efforts into bringing about the best solution to the problem.

Suu Kyi, the 1991 Nobel Peace Prize laureate, was detained after what the
junta says was a violent clash between her supporters and pro-junta
demonstrators on May 30 in northern Myanmar.

----INTERNATIONAL----

Oct 21, AFP
Myanmar's junta escapes US tongue-lashing at APEC summit

Myanmar's ruling junta escaped an expected tongue-lashing from the United
States during an Asia Pacific summit here, getting away without even a
mention in the two-day discussions which wrapped up Tuesday.

US President George W. Bush, a staunch supporter of Myanmar's opposition
leader Aung San Suu Kyi who is under house arrest, had been expected to
badger Asian leaders to do more to push Myanmar's generals for her
release.

But while the issue was raised in bilateral meetings, Bush did not manage
get the topic squeezed onto the agenda of talks among Asia Pacific
Economic Cooperation (APEC) leaders, according to Malaysian Prime Minister
Mahathir Mohamad.

"We did not discuss Myanmar at all," Mahathir told reporters at the
conclusion of the summit.

The leaders instead exclusively focused on trade and security issues
affecting the region's economies more directly, Thai foreign affairs
ministry spokesman Sihasak Phuangketkeow told AFP.

"This is an economic cooperation forum and we discussed security issues
insofar as they affect the economic stability of the region. As far as
security issues are concerned, the main focus was terrorism and issues
like the situation on the Korea peninsula," he said.

Myanmar's junta, which often crosses swords in barbed exchanges with the
United States, seemed to have anticipated a lashing and released a
statement defending itself before the summit concluded.

The regime said it "was disappointed to hear that during the APEC summit,
the United States opposed Myanmar's progress toward democracy and
continued to advocate policies which undermine Myanmar's social, political
and economic stability."

Myanmar's generals urged the United States to listen to the views of the
Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), which at their summit
earlier this month irked Washington by noting "positive developments" in
Myanmar.

ASEAN also lent its support to Yangon's new "roadmap" to democracy, which
envisages free and fair elections and a new constitution but does not
mention a timeframe or Aung San Suu Kyi, who was arrested on May 30.

Bush did raise the issue with Thai Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra,
telling him on Sunday that the United States has a "deep desire" to see
democracy take hold in the military-run country.

"We care deeply about Aung Suu San Kyi," he told Thaksin, who earlier said
the United States did not understand the issue well and warned he would
resist pressure to do more to intervene in neighboring Myanmar's internal
affairs.

Meanwhile China, in bilateral talks with Thailand, said it was willing to
take part in a proposed multilateral forum aimed at prodding Myanmar to
embark on democratic reforms, as long as the junta agreed to be involved.

The participation of China, which is Myanmar's main trading partner and
one of its few international allies, would greatly increase chances for
success at the talks.

Chayachoke Chulasiriwongse, head of international relations at
Chulalongkorn University, said he expected China's involvement in the
talks to have more effect than the aggressive US approach.

"I think that what the Chinese mentioned is more to the point than Bush
attacking the issue," he told AFP.

"It shows that China might come to the point of agreeing that something
must be done, that it would probably have to stop fully supporting the
Burmese government," he said, adding that any China turnaround would
likely be due to pressure from other Asian countries rather than Western
influence.

----OPINION / OTHER----

COMMENTARY

Oct 21, New Straits Times
The Straits Times: Will Yangon's road map lead to reconciliation?

THE announcement of Myanmar's constitutional 'road map' by the newly
appointed Prime Minister, General Khin Nyunt, on Aug 30 took many
observers by surprise.

The government of Myanmar was at that time being widely censured for the
renewed detention of opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi following the
violent clash between her entourage and her detractors on May 30. This
seemed to have ended the process of political reconciliation that had been
under way during the previous year.

But if political reconciliation was on hold in the eyes of the world, a
process of national consolidation was still under way within the country
in the minds of the authorities.

The Myanmar-made road map is a seven-point plan with no timetable
attached. The absence of a timetable has drawn criticism from Western
governments. Some perceive the announcement of the reformation of the
constitutional convention abandoned in 1996, the first step of the road
map, as merely another stalling tactic by a military regime unwilling to
give up power.

Certainly, a number of issues remain unclear at this time. Among these are
how inclusive the convention will be of the political groups that were not
included in the first convention because they had yet to abandon their
armed struggle against the government.

Now that almost all of the major and minor insurgent bands, which
previously plagued the country, have entered into ceasefire agreements
with the army, they will presumably be included.

The attitude of the National League for Democracy (NLD), the party that Ms
Suu Kyi leads, is still unclear.

If the NLD does not decide to rejoin the convention that it walked out of
in 1995 under her leadership, many will see the process as being
insufficiently inclusive of all shades of opinion. Whether that is
possible in a society with such a fractured political history as Myanmar's
remains to be seen.

Subsequent to the deliberations of the constitutional convention, which is
to draw up guidelines and principles for the emergence of 'a genuine and
disciplined democratic system', in the words of the government, a draft
Constitution will be prepared and then considered in a national
referendum.

Those who object to the new Constitution will have their chance to express
their opinion at that time, I was recently told in Yangon.

Following the referendum, elections will be held for Pyithu Hluttaws, or
People's Assemblies, at various levels.

Nothing is as yet decided as to how many layers of government will be
created by the new constitutional structures. Nor is it known whether
elections for a national legislature will take place at the same time as
those for lower level bodies. After the holding of elections, the final
step is the creation of a government and other state organisations formed
by the Pyithu Hluttaws.

Now thought is being focused on the formation of the second constitutional
convention. The first convention, which met from 1993 to 1996, was
criticised by Ms Suu Kyi and others for being procedurally undemocratic.

It had drawn up constitutional guidelines which, claimed the NLD leader,
permitted excessive autonomy for the army in the management of its own and
other government business, while limiting the authority of potential
civilian authorities.

There were also reports that some of the representatives of ethnic
minorities felt their views were not being taken sufficiently into
account.

The issues that arose in the first convention are bound to return in the
second because they go to the heart of the political dilemmas that
confront Myanmar's future.

Clearly, the military, which has held predominant power for many years,
will have a large role in any future political order. The extent to which
that is made permanent and unalterable in the new Constitution will be a
subject of great debate.

Similarly, how the constitutional convention resolves the conflicting
demands of the various ethnic communities for some autonomy over their
local affairs will require a great deal of hard thought.

No one will want to see the ethnic patchwork of Myanmar's society revert
to the civil war conditions that held back the development of the country
for so many years in the past. But that danger will always be present
unless a number of difficult compromises are reached.

Fifteen years after the army took power from the crumbling regime of the
former Burma Socialist Programme Party in the midst of widespread public
protests, there is clearly a need to re-establish a constitutional order.

Progress on economic development and other advances in health, education,
social welfare and the like will be inhibited as long as the uncertainty
of the present situation remains.

The Prime Minister's speech made that clear. How other actors in Myanmar
will respond to that call remains to be seen. It does seem clear, however,
that the government of Myanmar is set to press ahead with its road map in
the hope of creating a process that will, at minimum, form a coalition of
those willing to cooperate on creating a new constitutional future for the
country.


The writer, a Myanmar watcher for 30 years, was Professor of Politics at
the School of Oriental and African Studies, London, and Vice-Chancellor of
the University of Buckingham. This article is based on an Oct 9 seminar at
the Institute of South-east Asian Studies in Singapore. E-mail:
r_h_taylor at btopenworld.com
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