BurmaNet News Dec 16, 2003

[editor at burmanet.org]

Dec 16, 2003 Issue # 2388


INSIDE BURMA
BBC Monitor: Burma Outlines Plans for Democratic Transition During
Meetings in Thailand
Narinjara: Force labour for construction Ngapali Sea beach tourism complex
Xinhua: Myanmar making efforts to tackle environmental issues
Xinhua: Myanmar anticipates more active ASEAN-Japan cooperation
UPI: Myanmar army 'tortures' child recruits

ON THE BORDER
Irrawaddy: Police Raid Migrants in Mae Sot

DRUGS
Irrawaddy: Junta's War on Drugs 'A Charade'
Shan: Poppies blossom in the north - again

BUSINESS / MONEY
Xinhua: Myanmar's fishery exports decline

REGIONAL
Nation: Bangkok meet sees progress on road map
Japan Times: Rengo backs detained Myanmar activist

OPINION / OTHER
World Markets Research: One-Day Talks Prompt Ruling Junta to Pledge New
Constitution for Myanmar



INSIDE BURMA
___________________________________

Dec 16, BBC Monitor
Burmese PM meets Japanese House of Representatives members, officials

Source: TV Myanmar, Rangoon, in Burmese  - Text of report by Burmese TV on
14 December

Gen Khin Nyunt, prime minister of the Union of Myanmar Burma , received Mr
Tomo Takahara, president of the Myanmar Economic and Management Institute,
at the guest hall of the Imperial Hotel in Tokyo at 0800 on 11 December.
At the meeting, they discussed the enhancement of Myanmar-Japan friendship
existed for a long time throughout the history; cooperation in the
development of Myanmar ICT Information and Communication Technology ;
successful holding of the 6th Myanmar-Japan Chamber of Commerce Meeting in
Japan; cooperation in Myanmar's education sector; and the holding of World
Buddhism Summit in Myanmar in 2004.

At 0830, Gen Khin Nyunt received Mr Hideo Watanabe, member of the Japanese
House of Councillor, at the guest hall of the Imperial Hotel in Tokyo. At
the meeting, promotion of Myanmar-Japan friendly relations and cooperation
in economic and health sectors were discussed.

At 0900, Gen Khin Nyunt received Mr Koichi Kato, member of the House of
Representatives of Japan, and Mr Iwakura, senior adviser to Liberal
Democratic Party of Japan, at the guest hall of the Imperial Hotel. At the
meeting, status on Myanmar's drugs elimination endeavours; cultivation of
opium-substitute buckwheat; and joint drug elimination tasks between the
government and national races leaders were discussed.

At 0930, Gen Khin Nyunt received Mr Yohei Sasagawa, president of the
Nippon Foundation, at the guest hall of the Imperial hotel. At the
meeting, cooperation of Sasagawa Foundation in Myanmar; implementation of
seven-point future programme of Myanmar; peace talk negotiations between
the government and national armed group members, and enhancement of
Myanmar-Japan friendship and economic cooperation were discussed.

At 1000, Gen Khin Nyunt received Mr Yoichi Yamaguchi, former Japanese
ambassador to Myanmar and NGO Asia Maternal and Child Welfare Association
president, at the guest hall of the Imperial Hotel. At the meeting,
assistance provided to social sector of Myanmar including Maternal and
Child Welfare Association was discussed.

At 1130, Gen Khin Nyunt received Mr Chigemoto Okuda, Japan-Myanmar
Economic Cooperation president, at the guest hall of the Imperial Hotel.
At the meeting, promotion of air transport between the two countries and
development of Myanmar tourism industry were discussed.

At all of these meetings Gen Khin Nyunt was accompanied by U Win Aung,
minister of foreign affairs; U Khin Maung Win and U Kyaw Thu, deputy
foreign affairs ministers; U Saw Hla Min, Myanmar ambassador to Japan; U
Soe Tint, director-general of the Government Office, Thura U Aung Htet,
director-general of the Protocol Department and U Aung Bwa,
director-general the ASEAN Affairs Department.

In the evening at the guest hall of the Imperial Hotel in Tokyo, Gen Khin
Nyunt received Maj-Gen Shusuke Kayanuma of the Ministry of Defence of
Japan and wife, and Col Hirofumi Yusa who discharged duties of military
attaches of Japan in Myanmar. They were accompanied by Mr Yuji Miyamoto,
Japanese ambassador to Myanmar.

Present at the call together with Gen Khin Nyunt were U Win Aung, minister
of foreign affairs; U Khin Maung Win, deputy foreign minister; U Saw Hla
Min, Myanmar ambassador to Japan; Col Hla Myint, military attache and
departmental heads.

At the call, the former military attaches thanked for the convenience in
discharging their duties while in Myanmar because of the cooperation and
assistance of the Myanmar authorities. They said that they can never
forget the period they lived in Myanmar.
_____________________________

Dec 16, Narinjara
Force labour for construction Ngapali Sea beach tourism complex

Sandoway, Dec 16: Large number of valuable timber trees were being felled
for the construction of tourism complex, in Ngapali sea beach of Sandoway
in Arakan state, by the military headquarters of western command of Burma
and locals were being used as unpaid forced labour, a report said.

It is learnt that the military personnel were also building permanent
quarters inside the reserve forest, at Khamong village of Talaing daung
village track under the Ann Township, to extract valuable woods from these
reserve forest.

The villagers were being used for forced labour for various works like
construction of houses, locating of specific trees and logging them
without any payments.

One victim said, not only do the villagers have to supply their physical
labour free of cost but also have to provide buffaloes.

"We are being forced by the military personnel," said a villager of
Khamong. The villagers not only have to work without any payments but they
even have to manage food and water on their own.

Force labourer for logging was being extracted from the following
villages: Kalaing daung, Khamong, Mhroy, Raymathin and two other Chin
tribal villagers Hang Royk and Pathagrow under the Ann township.

The SPDC and the military junta are in a hurry to build complexes to
attract foreign tourists at Ngapali seaside. They are using country's
natural resources, valuable timber and force labourer, to execute this.

It is should be mentioned that at Ann township price of a ton of wood is
Kyat 1,50,000, 4,00,000 in Sittwe and 2,00,000 in Sandoway, a Timber
merchant told the reporter.
_____________________________

Dec 16, Xinhua
Myanmar making efforts to tackle environmental issues

The Myanmar government has been making efforts to tackle the country's
environmental issues with an aim to ensuring its economic development
undertakings while protecting the environment, Myanmar Times reported
Tuesday.

A National Commission on Environmental Affairs was set up in February 1990
and a National Environmental Policy was formulated in 1994, followed by
the drawing up of the Myanmar Agenda 21 in 1997 to provide guidelines for
national environmental protection activities in the 21st century.

The government has allocated 38 places as wildlife sanctuaries or national
parks, and    taken measures to ensure that commercial extraction of
timber be conducted on a sustainable annual allowable quota that will
leave the country's forest resources intact for future generations.

Meanwhile, the country's forests, wildlife and scenic areas are being
conserved under related acts and a total of 8.73 million hectares have
been placed under forestation or reforestation under a  project of
greening the dry zone in central Myanmar.

In the industrial sector, the government has grouped industrial
enterprises into industrial zones in an effort to reduce pollution of
other municipal areas to minimum.

The government has also regulated the safety level of industrial
pollutants from factories, setting ceilings for the emissions of
atmospheric pollutants, such as carbon dioxide, carbon monoxide and
nitrogen oxide as well as dust particles in the air.

In the mining sector, regulations on the disposal, treatment and recycling
of industrial waste are being carefully made under international
guidelines.

In the agricultural sector, the government is closely monitoring the use
of agricultural pesticides which contain heavy metals in order to prevent
contamination from their toxic chemicals.

In the education sector, the government attaches crucial importance to
environmental education, especially in environmental protection,
introducing the subject of environmental studies in the curricula of
universities.

Myanmar has signed into the Vienna Convention for the Protection of Ozone
Layer in 1988, the United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification and
the New York Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species of
Wild Flora and Fauna CITES in 1997.

Myanmar, along with 12 other Asian nations, has implemented the Least-Cost
Greenhouse Gas Abatement Strategy, a project dealing with biodiversity and
climatic change issues.
_____________________________

Dec 16, Xinhua
Myanmar anticipates more active ASEAN-Japan cooperation: Media

Myanmar anticipates more active cooperation between the Association of
Southeast Asian Nations ( ASEAN) and Japan in international affairs, said
official newspaper The New Light of Myanmar on Monday.

Such cooperation is possible as Japan remains not only a major trade
partner of ASEAN but also the biggest investor of the ASEAN region, the
paper said in an editorial.

The editorial came after Myanmar Prime Minister General Khin Nyunt
returned from a two-day ASEAN-Japan Commemorative Summit held in Tokyo
last Thursday and Friday.

Myanmar also anticipates that ASEAN-Japan cooperation in fighting
terrorism, narcotic drug trafficking, disarmament and cross-border crimes
will be further strengthened due to latest international developments and
changes, it said.

The editorial hailed the pledge of Japan to provide assistance for
development of infrastructures, information and communication technology
and human resources development of the four newer ASEAN members of
Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar and Vietnam, saying that the move will contribute
much to the whole ASEAN region.

Noting that there are many sectors of possible cooperation between ASEAN
and Japan, the editorial added that Myanmar looks forward to enhancing
cooperation between ASEAN and Japan in economy and development
undertakings for the improvement of the living standard of the regional
people, stressing the paramount importance of human resources development
for regional members.
_____________________________

Dec 16, United Press International
Myanmar army 'tortures' child recruits

The Myanmar army regularly forces children into service, beats them and
prevents contact with their families, according to two recent deserters.

In an interview with Radio Free Asia's Burmese service, Cpl. Than Naing
said that military recruiters would drag away boys, ages 13 and 14, as
they left school. He and his companion, Yan Paing Soe, had both been
conscripted in this way as teenagers.

Though some parents are able to locate their children and pay for their
release, it was seven years before Than Naing succeeded in contacting his
family.

The men said the children were poorly fed and forced to do the same labor
as adult men.

"It was as if they were torturing the soldiers," Yan Paing Soe told RFA.

The two men were among 26 soldiers who defected to the opposition Shan
State Army in the border region near Thailand on Nov. 24 and Nov. 26,
after killing their commanding officers.

It was an unprecedented act in a country governed by a military junta, in
which military officers enjoy wide-ranging powers and lead privileged
lives.

In a report earlier this year, the New York-based Human Rights Watch
claimed that soldiers aged 11 to 18 make up 20 percent of Myanmar's
troops. The government denies that it employs child soldiers.

Myanmar was formerly known as Burma.


ON THE BORDER
___________________________________

Dec 16, Irrawaddy
Raid Migrants in Mae Sot

Thai police raided a monastery today in the border town of Mae Sot, where
about 260 Burmese migrant workers were planning to sue their Thai employer
for insufficient pay. Witnesses in town said the police would deport all
of them back to Burma in a few days.

This afternoon dozens of police officers surrounded a monastery where the
workers, including about 200 women, were camping after they had decided
not to continue work at Nasawat Apparel garment factory and to file
charges against the factory, said Ye Htut who witnessed the incident.

Ye Htut, a member of the Mae Sot-based Yaung Chi Oo, a Burmese workers’
association, said the police first arrested Dr Khin Sein, a Burmese
physician who was helping the workers at the monastery. They then tried to
arrest 25 of the leading workers, but other workers prevented police from
doing so. He added that later the police beat and arrested all the
workers.

It is unclear how many workers were injured in the clash, but Ye Htut said
that all workers were being detained at the Immigration Detention Center
in Mae Sot, and would be deported to Burma soon. In accordance with
Burmese law, workers deported to Burma can face up to seven years in
prison for leaving Burma illegally.

All workers at the Nasawat factory walked out after the employer fired 25
workers last week. The workers had led a demonstration in November to
demand fair wages and fair treatment, said Moe Swe, leader of the Yaung
Chi Oo Association. He said the employers initially agreed to the workers’
demands and also pledged not to fire the leaders. However, the 25 workers
were dismissed on Thursday.

Moe Swe said that police confronted the workers while they were planning
to file charges with the aid of his association and other NGOs working
with migrant workers. He added that the workers were paid half the minimum
wage of 133 baht (US $3.20) a day.

Mae Sot lies opposite the Burmese border town of Myawaddy and has over
80,000 Burmese migrants working in garment factories, agriculture,
construction and in private homes as domestic workers.


DRUGS
____________________________________

Dec 16, Irrawaddy
Junta's War on Drugs 'A Charade'

Burma’s military government is striving to gain international legitimacy
and earn more foreign aid to shore up its ailing economy by launching a
drug eradication program in the country, yet the campaign is just a
charade according to a report published last week.

"Show Business," an investigative analysis of Rangoon’s ‘war on drugs’ in
Shan State published by the Thailand-based Shan Herald Agency for News
(SHAN), concluded, "Only political reform can solve Burma’s problems."

At the end of 2001, the Burmese military government initiated its campaign
against opium production in Shan State, aiming to reduce output by 50% in
the 2003-2004 opium growing season. According to the report, the junta’s
drug campaign selectively targeted northern Shan State, affecting mostly
poor farmers in "unprotected areas," which have been subject to mass
arrests and extrajudicial killings.

However, the campaign has been careful to avoid poppy plantation areas
under the control of ethnic armed groups that have forged ceasefire
agreements with the government. It seems that the "crackdown" allows
numerous local ethnic militia and ceasefire organizations to produce drugs
in exchange for cooperation with the government. Southern and eastern Shan
State has hardly been affected at all, the report says.

The report claims that the junta and its allies still run at least 93
heroin and methamphetamine refineries in Shan State, even after some small
refineries were burnt down by the junta. It also states that Burmese
military personnel are involved in all levels of opium production and
trafficking, from providing loans to opium farmers and security for
refineries to collecting taxes on opium and storing and transporting
heroin.

The UN Office of Drugs and Crime (UNODC) project in Burma, funded by the
United States, Germany, Japan and Italy, is aimed at developing a
sustainable approach to changes wrought by the opium ban. The UNODC
received US $2.3 million in funding last year from its donor countries,
but one of its officers said the program has suffered from a huge funding
shortfall, and would need $26 million for the next five-year period.

The UNODC estimated that Burma produced 828 tons of opium last year, a 26%
decrease from the previous year. According to official Burmese statistics,
opium output last year was 630 tons from 77,700 hectares (191,919 acres)
of land.

However, SHAN data collected in Mong Yawng suggested that actual amount of
opium cultivation during the 2002-2003 growing seasons was four times
higher than claimed by the UNODC survey covering the same period.

Jean-Luc Lemahieu, the Rangoon representative of the UNODC, said, "My
concern is not political gaming, my concern is human beings in this
field." The project under the UN office is aimed at ameliorating the
effects of the elimination of opium as a crop, but that effort alone is
not likely to make up for the loss of opium farmers, who find themselves
in great difficulties when they lose their primary income. Opium farmers
traditionally depend on opium to make up for a rice deficit and maintain
their hard scrabble for existence.

On Dec 26, Thailand’s Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra will visit Yongkha
in Southern Shan State to meet Burma’s top generals, including the
country’s Prime Minister Gen Khin Nyunt. The area, under control of the
United Wa State Army, has received 20 million baht in funding for a crop
substitution program from the Thai government.
_____________________________

Dec 15, Shan
Poppies blossom in the north – again

Unlike last year, when suppression was at its height, poppy fields have
begun to appear in places where there were only desolate hills, said
sources returning from northern Shan State.

The sources who were on vacation since the end of the Buddhist lent, said
except for parts of Kutkhai and Hsipaw townships, more poppy fields were
observed in townships like Lashio, Hsenwi, Muse and Tangyan.

In Tangyan, local authorities appeared to be oblivious to the poppy fields
in locations where, during the previous year, they had dispatched armed
teams to destroy.

"This year's harvest is really good, especially in Khun Sa's home ground,
Loimaw, Nawngliang, Mongtawm, Nam Musay, Wan Parng and Mongma," said a
native from the area. "And people leaving for their fields looked
exuberant as if they were going to a festival."

Mongzi and Monghawm in Kutkhai township, once known as major opium
producers in the area, and Mongkhurh, Mongtoong, Mongla and Marnnawng in
Hsipaw township, however, are exceptions.

"Cowed by last year's suppression, some farmers in Mongzi and Monghawm
have moved elsewhere," a local source told the visitors. Kutkhai was one
of the townships that had undergone harsh reprisals, such as extrajudicial
killings, as reported in Show Business: Rangoon's War on Drugs in Shan
State, released by S.H.A.N. on 10 December.

The vacationers also saw numerous poppy fields in the Wa townships of
Marnhparng and Pangyang, on the eastern side of the Salween, opposite
Tangyan and its neighboring township in the south, Monghsu.

"Spurred on by the 2005 zero-production deadline declared by Panghsang,
even Wa officers and their families are in a frenzy to make the most of
the remaining two poppy seasons," a relative told the visitors. "The
officers' involvement naturally encourages us ordinary people to work
harder."

In southern Shan State, especially in Monghsu, Mongkerng, Laikha,
Panglong, Kunhing, Loilem, Hopong and Hsihseng, where the travelers had
visited, the production, by all accounts, is up. One of the officers of
Light Infantry Battalion 514, based in Mongkerng, explained: "Unlike the
north, many parts of the south are still black areas (areas where the
resistance is active). And that gives us a very strong justification for
allowing the people to engage in the poppy cultivation. In the north, they
don't have that kind of excuse."

The Shan State Army "South" of Yawdserk, in the meanwhile, insists that it
is all for peace talks but "the problem is they keep demanding that we
surrender. That is against our principle. We will only surrender to an
elected government."

In Panglong, the demand for fertilizers for use in the poppy fields was
such some traders in town were making profits selling chicken manure
brought from Shwenyaung, according to a recent arrival.

The UN Office for Drugs and Crime reported in June that opium cultivation
was cut by half in northern Shan State but increased by 21% in the Wa
region.


BUSINESS / MONEY
____________________________________

Dec 16, Xinhua News Agency
Myanmar's fishery exports decline

The fishery exports of Myanmar went down sharply by 26.5 percent to
102,800 tons in the first seven months of the fiscal year 2003-04
(April-March) compared with the same period of the previous year when it
registered 140,000 tons, the local Myanmar Times reported in its latest
issue.

The exports earned 90 million US dollars during the period, dropping by
38.7 percent from the corresponding period a year ago when it showed 147
million dollars, the Myanmar Fisheries Federation was quoted as saying.

The report attributed the dramatic fall of the country's fishery exports
to over-production of prawns in Southeast Asian and Latin American
nations, which created a glut in the international market and affected
Myanmar's exports.

According to the report, Myanmar has 81,000 hectares of ponds in seven
state and divisions where prawns are cultivated. Of the areas, 1,620
hectares are with fresh prawns, while the rest with marine prawns.

Myanmar is endowed with rich and inland marine resources, having a
sustainable yield of about 1 million tons per year from marine source
alone. Natural lakes, reservoirs, river systems and ponds cover a total
area of about 8.2 million hectares as estimated.

With over 2 million Myanmar people being engaged in various fishery
industries, the sector contributes up to 9 percent to the country's gross
domestic product with marine product exports accounting for up to 7
percent of its total exports.

Myanmar's per capital consumption of marine products stands at 21.8 kg,
higher than the world average of 16.3 kg.


REGIONAL
____________________________

Dec 16, Nation
Bangkok meet sees progress on road map

Three steps of plan towards democratic reform to be implemented next year,
says junta

For the first time, Burma's military junta told the international
community during a meeting in Bangkok yesterday that it had set a
timeframe for the seven-point road map to national reconciliation and
established communication with opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi.

Three steps of the road map are to be implemented next year, including
setting up a National Convention to draft a new constitution, Burma's
Foreign Minister Win Aung told the meeting.

'Next year will be a busy year for Burma,' Foreign Minister Surakiart
Sathirathai quoted Win Aung as saying. He was speaking at a press
conference for the landmark international meeting of representatives from
13 nations on Burma's road map towards national reconciliation.

Win Aung briefed the meeting that Burmese Prime Minister Khin Nyunt and
Suu Kyi had established a communication of confidence building as a part
of the national reconciliation process, Surakiart said.

Wing Aung said his government had set the timeframe for the road map, but
did not provide any further details.

Bangkok called a meeting of like-minded countries - now called the Bangkok
Process - to assist the junta in reaching a solution to the political
stalemate following political violence on May 30 that led to detention of
opposition leaders.

Meanwhile, sources said the forum did not demand that Burma make any
commitment to move towards democracy, or try to secure the political
freedom of Suu Kyi.

However, Australia's parliamentary secretary to the Minister of Foreign
Affairs, Christine Gallus, told reporters in a separate interview that
Australia wished to see Suu Kyi released and expected to see Burma moving
towards democracy.

Burma did not ask for anything during the meeting, she added.

Khin Nyunt announced the road map in August. It includes the resumption of
the constitution-drafting convention after the breakdown in 1996 and fair
elections, in the face of mounting pressure from the international
community and sanctions from the European Union, Japan and the United
States.

The road map failed to mention a timeframe and the role of opposition
parties and rebellious minorities, which are major components in Burmese
politics.

Win Aung told the meeting that the junta would allow eight strata of
Burmese society to participate in the National Convention, Surakiart said.
Political parties, including Suu Kyi's National League for Democracy,
ethnic minorities, farmers, the military, civil servants and workers will
participate in the constitution-drafting body, he said.

Surakiart said the Bangkok Process would continue to support Burma's
efforts towards national reconciliation. He said the next round would be
held early next year to discuss various elements in the reconciliation
process.

The meeting yesterday also discussed assistance to Burmaif the junta made
tangible progress, such as the establishment of democratic institutions,
he added.

Surakiart said the participants, who include United Nations special envoy
to Burma Razali Ismail and veteran Indonesian diplomat Ali Alatas, praised
the meeting as a 'breakthrough', as Burma had sent its foreign minister to
give 'testimony' before the international community for the first time and
had demonstrated its commitment to the process.

Surakiart, who said earlier that he did not expect any solid results from
the meeting, yesterday sought to make things run as smoothly as possible
as he lobbied China's Assistant Minister of Foreign Affairs Shen Goufang
and Razali before discussion began.
____________________________

Dec 16, The Japan Times
Rengo backs detained Myanmar activist

HIROSHI MATSUBARA, Staff writer

The nation's largest labor organization urged the government Monday to
release a 46-year-old man from Myanmar facing deportation, submitting a
joint petition by 20 labor unions under its umbrella.

In the petition submitted to Justice Minister Daizo Nozawa, the Japanese
Trade Union Confederation (Rengo) demanded that Khin Maung Latt, a
Myanmarese democracy activist who does not have a visa, and his family be
granted special residency permits in Japan.

Khin Maung Latt, who has a 36-year-old Filipino wife and two daughters, is
in detention at the Tokyo Regional Immigration Bureau, following a
rejection of his application for refugee status by the Tokyo High Court in
late October.

He arrived in Japan in 1988 and his wife in 1991. The couple have since
lived in Tokyo without legitimate visas, but the daughters, aged 6 and 9,
go to school here and speak only Japanese.

The ministry has began deportation procedures against him. His supporters
say he may never be able to see his family again, because he could be
imprisoned after returning home.

Rengo said Japan is the only country where the family can live happily
together.

During a Diet session in November, Nozawa said the ministry would not take
any step that would forcibly split up the family, but it would go ahead
with the deportation procedure for the entire household. Such a position
has apparently left the ministry with only one option - deporting the
family as a whole to the Philippines.

Officials at the immigration bureau have been pressing Khin Maung Latt to
agree to leave Japan for the Philippines, according to his supporters.

In response to Monday's petition, Masayoshi Kijima, chief of the screening
division in the ministry's Immigration Bureau, said the ministry has no
choice but to proceed with deportation for Khin Maung Latt.

"There are a number of cases like this one and we cannot give special
treatment to this family only, even from the perspective of human rights,"
Kijima was quoted of saying.


OPINION / OTHER
_____________________________________

Dec 16, World Markets Research Centre
One-Day Talks Prompt Ruling Junta to Pledge New Constitution for Myanmar

 At one-day talks hosted by Thailand, Myanmar's ruling junta yesterday
promised to draft a new constitution during 2004, finally providing its
'roadmap for democracy' with the beginnings of a time-frame.

WMRC Perspective

Significance
The meeting, dubbed the Bangkok Process, was attended by representatives
of 12 nations, with the notable exceptions of the US and Britain. Neither
of these countries were invited, on the grounds that their criticisms
might undermine any progress.
Implications
The decision to pursue a new constitution is significant, because it marks
the first real step forward since the roadmap for democracy was unveiled
in August. Furthermore, it is hoped that the Bangkok Process will prompt
further such discussions, giving the process some momentum.

Outlook

Observers generally believe that the ruling junta is nominally working to
introduce reforms by 2006, although international opinion remains divided
over how best to facilitate such moves.

Opening the Roadmap

Given the general difficulty of the situation, it is positive that
yesterday's meeting was held at all. The ruling State Peace and
Development Council (SPDC) military junta recently announced that if the
12 nations intended to use the meeting to criticise the regime, then its
representative would refuse to attend. In the event, the 12 nations were
selected through consultation with the junta, and Foreign Minister Win
Aung acted as the authorities' mouthpiece. The meeting led to Win Aung's
announcement that a national convention would be held during 2004, and a
new constitution drafted. According to officials, Win Aung agreed that
opposition National League for Democracy (NLD) leader, Aung San Suu Kyi,
would be involved in the convention. The issue of Suu Kyi and her
continuing house arrest was raised, in what Australia's Christine Gallus
described as an 'open and frank' discussion, although it is reported that
the attendees refrained from openly criticising the regime.

Approaching a Crossroads

The issue of Suu Kyi and the fate of other opposition members has
polarised the international community, as evidenced in the divergent
political and economic attitudes that have been displayed. Following the
pro-democracy activist's arrest in late-May, the US and the European Union
(EU) reacted strongly, imposing sanctions on the country and demanding the
immediate release of the NLD members. In a separate incident, which
fuelled further criticism of the regime, United Nations (UN) envoy Razali
Ismail, who had been involved in confidence-building measures with the
SPDC since October 2000, angrily departed the country, having discovered
that his conversations with NLD detainees had been bugged. It therefore
came as little surprise therefore when the junta's roadmap for democracy -
under which the regime intends to implement a seven-point process towards
democracy, with a view to holding free and fair elections after a new
constitution has been drawn up - met with derision and scepticism from the
likes of the US.

This hard line, coupled with high-profile awareness campaigns run by
non-governmental organisations (NGOs) in the West, has had an increasing
impact on attitudes towards operating in the country. As the issue of
corporate social responsibility (CSR) has become more pertinent, major
Western companies have begun to wrap up their operations in the Myanmar.
Most recently, this saw the withdrawal of British American Tobacco (BAT)
and accounting firm, PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC) in November, the first
following a call by the British government to reassess its involvement in
the country, the second resulting from what the company described as a
're-evaluation' of its interests there (see Myanmar: 1 December 2003: US
Accountancy Firm Joins Corporate Exodus from Myanmar). These issues are
only likely to become more pertinent, depending on the outcome of the
current US trial involving the major oil company Unocal. A number of
villagers from Myanmar have filed lawsuits, alleging that the company
shares responsibility for alleged human rights abuses - including murder
and rape - that they argue were carried out at the behest of the ruling
junta.

It is here that the international community divides. Many Asian countries
remain comfortable with operating in Myanmar, and Asian companies have
been quick to take the place of departing Western concerns. This
engagement has inevitably impacted on political relations, creating an
environment where Myanmar's neighbours are seeking to pursue engagement,
and are more tolerant of incremental reform in Myanmar. To some extent,
they continue to shelter Myanmar from Western criticism, and offset
sanctions through trading pacts and agreements. This has resulted in
criticism from some quarters, with activists arguing that countries like
Thailand are using political engagement as a justification for continued
business ties with the SPDC. In the case of Thai Prime Minister Thaksin
Shinawatra this is certainly a persuasive case - not least because his
family has sizeable interests in business operations set up with the
ruling junta - but in essence it remains little more than an accusation.

Outlook and Implication

With the influence that the likes of Thailand and other members of the
Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) are bringing to bear on the
situation, it appears that the international community is tilting towards
engagement with Myanmar, despite the best efforts of the US and Britain.
The regime has previously shown little propensity to alter policy as a
result of outside pressure, though it is hoped that a mix of pressure and
continued engagement from the likes of UN envoy Ismail, as well as other
countries, will have a positive bearing. The main issue that emerged
following the roadmap's announcement was the fact that no time-frame had
been given for the long-sought after transformation. In light of this,
moves towards securing a draft constitution in 2004 mark a positive step,
as does the SPDC's apparent interest in pursuing further talks with other
countries.

However, the situation needs to be put in perspective. The junta is keen
to see international sanctions lifted, as well as progress on other
fronts, and has consequently taken a number of steps to improve its
standing and show an ostensible interest in progress over recent weeks.
These included the release of a number of NLD activists and the renewal of
dialogue with the country's main ethnic rebel group. It remains highly
questionable as to whether the regime would have taken these steps had the
Bangkok Process not been scheduled. Ultimately, the military regime's
calculations are straightforward, and are based on its own self-interest
rather than that of the country. This means that unless there are
reassurances and rewards to be gained, the military will once more elect
to retreat into isolation, rather than risk losing economic and political
power.
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