BurmaNet News, Jan 27, 2004

[editor at burmanet.org]

Jan 27, 2004 Issue # 2412


INSIDE BURMA
AFP: Myanmar says time for the West to be more positive about military state
Xinhua: Myanmar PM stresses building democracy in peaceful environment
BBC Monitor: Shan State leaders express support for Burmese government
"road map"
Shan: Karens say ceasefire not end goal
Irrawaddy: Communists Go Online

ON THE BORDER
Bangkok Post: Formal trading with Burma to start soon
FBR: Ongoing Burma Army offensive in the Northern Karen State and Southern
Karenni State

BUSINESS / MONEY
Irrawaddy: Thai Baht for Regional Trade

OPINION / OTHER
SCMP: Power of partnership
AFP: Iraq, Afghanistan, 11 other states at risk of genocide: expert



INSIDE BURMA
___________________________________

Jan 27, Agence France Presse
Myanmar says time for the West to be more positive about military state

Myanmar's Prime Minister General Khin Nyunt said Tuesday it was time for
Western countries to be more positive towards the military-run country
which is regularly slammed for its poor rights record.

"The false perception that Myanmar is crumbling and that its people are
downtrodden has been created by those who wish us ill," he said in an
opening speech at a seminar attended by foreign diplomats and academics.

Despite the widespread belief that Myanmar's economy is on the verge of
collapse, Khin Nyunt insisted it was "an undeniable fact" that Myanmar had
overcome heavy sanctions and improved the economic well-being of its
people.

"Notwithstanding the positive changes in the country, Western countries
continue to demonise Myanmar and accuse the Myanmar government of carrying
out atrocities ranging from gross violations of human rights to employment
of child soldiers," he said, adding that it was time to "correct the
misperception."

At the two-day seminar entitled "Understanding Myanmar", the premier said
the seven point "road map" to democracy which he announced last year would
transform Myanmar into a "peaceful, prosperous and modern state".

He said that as part of this plan the regime was working to secure the
support of its former foes -- the ethnic armies who have struck ceasefire
deals with Yangon.

Since taking democracy leader Aung San Suu Kyi into detention last May in
a move that outraged the international community, the Myanmar junta has
been engaged in a public relations campaign to improve its image.

It has said this year it will hold a national convention to draft a new
constitution as the first step in the road map, which has met with
scepticism from western governments who view the plan as stalling tactic.

Aung San Suu Kyi's National League for Democracy (NLD) won a landslide
election victory in 1990 but has never been allowed to rule. Despite
frequent claims that it intends to shift towards democracy the junta has
made no significant reforms.
_________________________

Jan 27, Xinhua
Myanmar PM stresses building democracy in peaceful environment

Myanmar Prime Minister General Khin Nyunt stressed on Tuesday that
democracy can only be built in an environment of peace and stability,
warning that democratic change is never easy and cannot be imposed from
outside.

"What works for one country may not work for another. If the transition to
democracy is not built on firm foundations and is not accompanied by steps
to establish credible institutions, it will result in disintegration of
national unity," said Khin Nyunt in his address at the opening session of
a Seminar on Understanding Myanmar, organized by the Institute of
Strategic and International Study.

He emphasized that his country, as a developing nation, needs to set its
priorities in face of daunting challenges and to determine the model to
follow and the pace of transformation to adopt.

Speaking of Myanmar's seven-point roadmap which includes the reconvening
of the long-suspended national convention and was announced by him last
August, Khin Nyunt disclosed that the convention's convening commission
has started work, saying that once the ground work is complete, the
process will go forward.

He also revealed that he has sought support from 13 former anti-government
ethnic armed groups out of 17 which have made peace with the government,
adding that he will do so from the rest of these groups and talks are
underway with the Kayin National Union (KNU), the largest group still
remaining out of legal fold.

Relating to foreign affairs, Khin Nyunt went on to say that Myanmar plays
an active role in maintaining peace and stability in the region and the
world, stressing the vital importance to establish external conditions
that guarantee security needed for development of his country.

He expressed Myanmar's pledge to continue to support the search for
peaceful solution to the problems that the world faces, based on the
United Nations Charter and the principles of international law, while
seeking maintenance of friendly relations with all countries especially
with the neighbors.

He added that Myanmar "has not only been able to overcome the unilateral
economic sanctions imposed by some western countries but has been able to
improve the economic well-being of its people. "

The two-day seminar is attended by 18 countries' representatives including
China, France, Germany, India, Indonesia, Japan, South Korea, Malaysia,
the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, Britain and the United States.
_________________________

Jan 27, BBC Monitor
Shan State leaders express support for Burmese government "road map"

Text of report by Burmese TV on 23 January

Prime Minister Gen Khin Nyunt, chairman of the Work Committee for
Development of Border Areas and National Races, received Chairman U Aik
Mone, Vice Chairman U Nyi Lone, and members of Shan State (North) Special
Region-7 at Zeyathiri Beikman on Konmyinttha at 1700 local time in Yangon
Rangoon today.

Also present on the occasion were ministers at the Prime Minister's Office
U Ko Lay and Maj-Gen Thein Swe, Deputy Minister for Progress of Border
Areas and National Races and Development Affairs Brig-Gen Than Tun, Deputy
Minister for Home Affairs Brig-Gen Phone Swe, Director-General of the
State Peace and Development Council Office Lt-Col Pe Nyein,
Director-General of the Government Office U Soe Tint, and senior officers
of the Military Intelligence.

At the meeting the ethnic leaders said their group welcomed and supported
the seven-point future policy programme road map of the State clarified by
Prime Minister Gen Khin Nyunt and that they, under the leadership of the
State, would actively participate in the implementation of that programme.

The ethnic leaders pledge to work effectively for the elimination of
narcotic drugs and sought the State's assistance to develop the education,
health, agricultural, economic sectors of their region.
_____________________________

Jan 26, Shan
Karens say ceasefire not end goal

Both sides have agreed truce talks must resume, but without inclusion of
meaningful dialogue for national reconciliation, truce will be
meaningless, according to Karen National Union's Europe-based spokesperson
Saw Sarky.

"Experience of previous ceasefire pacts with other groups has shown us
that unless there is continued dialogue for conflict resolution, the hard
earned truce will merely serve as a timebomb," he said, following series
of meetings that were held on the border upon Gen Bo Mya's return from
peace talks in Rangoon last week. "There is very little appealing about
it. Ceasefire, meaningful dialogue and national reconciliation -- they
must come one after another, if we want peace to hold on."

He concluded that before the truce agreement could be finalized, some
armed clashes were inevitable, as each side would still send out
reconnaissance patrols to protect itself. "But we've been informed by our
own sources that regional commands in the field have already received
directives from Rangoon to exercise restraints from now on."

That did not mean the Karens could afford to relax. "We are still keeping
a close watch on their movements," he said. "And we're asking them why is
it that there are 8 battalions in Toungoo (Second Brigade operational
area) in addition to the original 7, and why some of their units are
advancing to our 4th Brigade's 11th Battalion positions."

On query, he acknowledged that a line of communications have been set up
between KNU and Rangoon, though he declined to specify who and how.

The Karens are also well aware their close allies are also anxiously
watching them. "They have nothing to worry, because we know unless truce
also extends to them, KNU alone will be hard put to handle it. They may
rest assured our alliance is intact."

The Karen's armed allies include All Burma Students Democratic Front, Shan
State Army "South", Chin National Front, Karenni National Progress Party,
Arakan Liberation Party, Wa National Army and Kachin National
Organization.

He also reaffirmed that no surrender is in store in the foreseeable
future. "As long as a genuinely federal government is not in place, you
can safely bet that we shall continue to adhere to the late Saw Ba Oo
Gyi's 3-point policy," he said.

Chances of KNU joining a military sponsored National Convention is also
nil. "We are calling for a legitimate, all-inclusive forum that will
guarantee us national reconciliation, before we decide to join," he
promised.

On the brighter side, the Karens have full praise for the host country,
Thailand. "Their understanding and unfailing support had been crucial in
making the peace talks possible," said Saw Sarky.

The role of Gen Khin Nyunt, their host in Rangoon, was not also forgotten.
"He was very courteous and cordial. Through him, we were able to hold our
talks in a warm and open atmosphere," he claimed.

Before November, when Col San Pwint, Gen Khin Nyunt's special envoy, made
a groundbreaking visit to Maesod, the two sides had already negotiated 4
times, the last time in 1996. "The main reason for their failure was
Rangoon had set pre-conditions," he told S.H.A.N. "On the other hand, the
success of the latest talks is due to the fact that no pre-conditions were
setup."

He reiterated, in conclusion, that ceasefire would only be a prelude to
political reform in Burma.
_____________________________

Jan 27, Irrawaddy
Communists Go Online

The Communist Party of Burma recently launched its new website, in
preparation for "the last battle" in the decades-long conflict between the
country’s military rulers and the people, according to the website.

It includes pages stating the party’s policies and announcements, open
letters and news articles in Burmese. It also has posted the most recent
issue of the party’s journal, People’s Power, which first began
publication over 40 years ago.

The Communist Party of Burma, or CPB, collapsed in 1989 after many of its
members mutinied against their leaders. Today, most of its members live in
Chinese towns bordering northern Burma and deeper inside China.

The party launched the website to circulate its opinions to Burmese people
abroad and, it hopes, to people inside Burma through its overseas
readership.

The party was founded in 1939 by young dissidents who played a key role in
Burma’s fight against British colonial rule, including independence hero
and national leader Aung San, father of opposition leader Aung San Suu
Kyi.

The party took up arms against Rangoon in 1948. It also took part in the
1988 pro-democracy movement and many activists were jailed for having
suspected links to the party.


ON THE BORDER
____________________________

Jan 27, Bangkok Post
Formal trading with Burma to start soon

Cheewin Sattha - Mae Hong Son

Mae Hong Son is preparing to begin formal trading with Burma via Ban Rong
Haeng pass in Muang district.

The pass is located opposite Burma's Ban Na Mon, an area once controlled
by the Mong Thai Army of Shan drug warlord Khun Sa, who surrendered to
Rangoon in 1996.

The move follows last month's talks between Thai and Burmese officials and
local traders.

Burma was asked to clear its border of all landmines and to fill up
tank-trap pits left from its war with Shan rebels in 2002.

A source said Mae Hong Son governor Supoj Laowansiri had already approved
shipments to Burma of motor vehicles, both brand new and used, and spare
parts.

However, all exports would be made under close supervision to prevent them
going to areas controlled by drug traders or minority rebels.

About 18-20 cars would be sent to Burma before the end of this month, the
source said.

Both Thai and Burmese traders would be subject to strict background checks
to ensure they were not drug dealers or supporters of anti-Rangoon rebels.

Burmese traders also must hold licences issued by the Rangoon government,
the source said.

All exported items from Mae Hong Son must be subject to customs
inspections and payments must be made through banks only.

The province could terminate all imports and exports for security or
economic reasons if ties between the two countries deteriorated, the
source said.

Mae Hong Son suffers a trade deficit of around 100 million baht annually
in unofficial cross-border trading with Burma. The northern province's
major exports include petrol and consumer goods worth about
700,000-800,000 baht a month. It imports about 7-8 million baht worth of
cattle and jewellery from Burma monthly.
_____________________________

Jan 27, Free Burma Rangers
Ongoing Burma Army offensive in the Northern Karen State and Southern
Karenni State

On 24 January  the 3 Battalions involved in the offensive in the Northern
Karen State, LIB 512, LIB 18 and IB 3 received a resupply of food. This
type of resupply usually indicates a continuation of offensive action but
it is not clear if this is the case now. Earlier on 15 January, the Burma
Army established a new base in Northern Muthraw district, Karen state near
the Karenni border vicinity Plo Yuway Mu Der village, Hill# 2969 -  N 18
39  E 097 19.  Tactical Command 3, 55th Division with 3 Battalions under
its control has been established here. The battalions are LIB 18, LIB512
and IB 3. It is not known if this is a temporary base for the current
offensive in Northern Karen State or if it is to be a permanent base.These
Burma Army units continue to patrol and shoot at villagers in this area.

The Burma Army has now also blocked all travel for Karen villagers who
wish to access the Salween market town of Ta Kwa Hta. Ta Kwa Hta is inside
the Karen State but is located on the border of the Karen and Karenni
States at N 18 35  E 097 21.  The Burma Army has also increased its
patrolling of the East- West road (Kaukkyi in the east to Saw Hta on the
Salween river to the west), that divides Muthraw district, Karen State.
The Burma Army has mined the road and posted additional positions to guard
crossing routes and shoot on sight anyone who attempts to cross the road.
It is very difficult for villagers to travel and now that the Burma Army
has cut off the town of Ta Kwa Hta, some villagers are trapped inside
southern Muthraw district.

On 23 January one Battalion of the Burma Army arrived at Siday village
northern Karen State (N 18 41 E 096 59 ). After encountering landmines
this battalion retreated with an unknown number of casualties. They are
now at Bu Sa Kee village, Eastern Toungoo District , Karen State (N 18 44
E 096 57).

On 20, 21, and 22 January there were three clashes between advancing Burma
Army Battalions and KNLA troops in North East Muthraw district vicinity
Kolay, Dwee Der, Kyala Der and Taw Thoo  Der villages ( In a five mile
radius around N 18 36 E 097 11).Villagers in this area have fled from
their villages and are in hiding.

Burma Army Offensive in Karenni State:

The Burma Army continues its attacks of IDPs in the Southern Karenni State
and an update of this offensive will follow. It is now difficult to locate
many of the Karenni IDPs due to Burma Army patrols.


BUSINESS / MONEY
_____________________________________

Jan 26, Irrawaddy
Thai Baht for Regional Trade

Thailand will introduce a new plan to use its currency as the standard for
trading with Burma, Cambodia and Laos.

Thailand’s Commerce Minister Watana Muangsook will propose the idea of the
four nations using Thai baht instead of US dollars for trade at the
meeting of the Thai-Burma Joint Trade Commission being held in Rangoon
yesterday and today, according to Monday’s English-language daily The
Nation. Watana said the move would lessen the risks from currency
fluctuations and reduce the cost of currency exchange, a source from
Thailand’s Foreign Trade Department told the newspaper.

All four countries must approve the plan before it takes effect.

A professor from Chulalongkorn University in Bangkok, who asked not to be
named, said the plan is realistic and will strengthen the baht because
demand for the currency will rise.

Under the proposal, Thailand will offer loans in baht instead of dollars
to promote trade and investment among Burma, Cambodia, Laos and Thailand.

Last year, representatives from the four countries attended a summit in
Burma’s ancient city of Pagan, which focused on trade and improving
cooperation on economics, communications and tourism. The summit was part
of Thailand’s Economic Cooperation Strategy initiative, which aims to
assist its lesser developed trading partners—Burma, Cambodia and Laos—with
soft loans and aid.

Thailand has already offered Burma, which was slapped with a fresh round
of US sanctions last year, a 123 million baht (US $3 million) loan for a
road project and a soft loan worth 1.7 billion baht. The loans have a
30-year repayment deadline and 1.5 percent interest rate.

Representatives of the Federation of Thai Industries and Board of Trade
will meet with Burmese businessmen to discuss trade and investment during
the meeting currently being held in Rangoon.

Annual trade between Thailand and Burma is valued at about US $800 million.


OPINION / OTHER
_____________________________________

Jan 27, South China Morning Post
Power of partnership - Sunanda Kisor Datta-Ray

Asia's energy problems might disappear once the nascent Bimstec
organisation - the acronym for Bangladesh, India, Myanmar, Sri Lanka,
Thailand Economic Co-operation - gets going. But the Year of the Monkey
started with a setback: the sudden cancellation of what would have been
the grouping's first summit meeting, scheduled to be held in Phuket early
next month.

It fell victim to politics when Indian Prime Minister Atal Behari Vajpayee
phoned Thai Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra last week and said he would
be unable to attend because of electoral preoccupations. The world's
largest democracy is girding itself for the upheavals of mammoth
parliamentary polls in March or April, five months ahead of time. Mr
Thaksin preferred to wait for full attendance rather than begin  without
India.

With 1.3 billion people and a gross domestic product of US$550 billion,
Bimstec is an imaginative plan to bring countries fringing the Bay of
Bengal closer together. It will link Asean, arguably the most successful
international grouping after the European Union, with the South Asian
Association for Regional Co-operation (Saarc), which made significant
headway in Islamabad in subordinating political differences to economic
demands. Two Bimstec countries, Myanmar and Thailand, are members of the
Association of Southeast Asian Nations. The other three are in Saarc.

It was Myanmar Foreign Minister Win Aung who first proposed a summit when
he visited New Delhi a year ago to drum up bilateral trade. But Bimstec is
really a Thai initiative. Foreign Minister Surakiart Sathirathai  was a
strong advocate of linking hands across the Bay of Bengal even when
Chatichai Choonhavan was prime minister;  former deputy prime minister
Supachai Panitchpakdi, who also held the commerce portfolio, was a
supporter until his translation as World Trade Organisation chief.

No one can pretend that Bimstec has lived up to aspirations. But the
potential is enormous. The second ministerial-level meeting in Bangkok in
1998 identified several areas of action together with lead countries –
trade and investment (Bangladesh), technology (India), transport and
communication (Thailand), tourism and fisheries (Sri Lanka), and energy
(Myanmar). The hope is that Bimstec will one day transform itself into
another free-trade area.

Energy co-operation, the most compelling incentive, received a further
impetus this month when South Korea's Daewoo corporation discovered a
giant gas field in the Rakhine basin, off northwest Myanmar. Apart from
the South Koreans, Indian and Chinese companies are also prospecting for
oil and gas in Myanmar and its territorial waters.

Estimates of reserves vary, but some sources suggest Myanmar might have 51
trillion cubic feet of gas and more than three billion barrels of oil. 
Bangladesh, too, floats on a sea of gas that might exceed proven estimates
of 16 trillion cubic feet.

India and Thailand are Bimstec's principal energy importers. In fact, the
Thais already buy natural gas from Myanmar's Yadana field. But only three
of the country's 14 geological sedimentary basins are worked. The trans
Asian pipeline must be properly developed before Myanmar can supply other
Asean and Bimstec countries.

Myanmar can also help industrialise India's energy-starved northeast with
cheap power. So can Bangladesh, whose geographic isolation rules out any
other buyer. But sensitivities are so acute that when Inder Kumar Gujral
was Indian prime minister, he advised then Bangladeshi prime minister
Hasina Wazed to sell the gas via an American consortium. Let them take
their 10
percent, he said. Otherwise, we'll both be subject to too much political
pressure.

Bimstec's collective co-operation is expected to act as a solvent for
political reservations. Ministerial meetings in Bangkok, Dhaka, Colombo
and New Delhi stressed the need for open skies, east-west roads and
railways, development of the Mekong River's resources, improved
agriculture, protection of marine wealth, environmental stability,
stronger banking and streamlined Customs.

I am no visionary, Thai Deputy Foreign Minister Sukhumbhand Paribatra
declared at one meeting. My vision of a strong, dynamic and open Bimstec
is not based on wisdom, but simple reason and logic. So is the dream of
unimpeded economic co-operation and the free passage of goods and services
through a vast swathe of Asia from the Hindu Kush mountains to the Pacific
Ocean.

The temporary setback of a cancelled summit must not be allowed to dim
that vision.

Sunanda Kisor Datta-Ray is a visiting senior research fellow at the
Institute of Southeast Asian Studies, Singapore. The views expressed in
This article are those of the author.
____________________________

Jan 27, AFP
Iraq, Afghanistan, 11 other states at risk of genocide: expert

hirteen countries in the world face the threat of genocide -- Iraq,
Afghanistan, eight nations in African and three in Asia --, a US
researcher told an international conference on preventing genocide
Tuesday.

Sudan, Myanmar, Burundi, Rwanda and the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC)
are in greatest danger of mass bloodshed, Barbara Harff of the US Center
for International Development and Conflict Management, told the conference
in Stockholm.

The other eight countries on the danger list are Somalia, Uganda, Algeria,
China, Iraq -- despite the US-led regime change --, Afghanistan, Pakistan
and Ethiopia.

Sudan, Myanmar, Burundi, Rwanda and the DRC all meet five of the six risk
factors outlined by Harff who, at the Clinton administration's request,
designed in the 1990s a theoretical model for risk assessment and early
warning of genocidal violence.

The factors are prior genocides or politicides; upheaval since 1988;
existence of a minority elite; exclusionary ideology; the type of regime
and trade openness.

Somalia, Uganda, Algeria and China meet four of the six factors, while
Iraq, Afghanistan, Pakistan and Ethiopia meet three, Harff said in a
presentation of her November 2003 report to representatives from 50
countries attending the Stockholm conference.

Harff said that with her model "we can narrow the timeframe and identify
warning flags that a genocide is in the making a few months prior to its
onset".

But Rwandan President Paul Kagame, who was in the Swedish capital,
rejected the assertion that his country was again at risk of genocide,
after the 1994 bloodshed that claimed the lives of up to one million
Tutsis and moderate Hutus.

"There's no such threat in my opinion," he told reporters after bilateral
talks with the host of the conference, Swedish Prime Minister Goeran
Persson.

"Although not totally eliminated, the problem has been increasingly
diminishing (and) what remains of the problem is much smaller than what
used to be there," he said.

"I don't see anything threatening our stability again," he added.

Harff's remarks came during discussions on the early warning signs of
genocide, on the second day of the three-day conference.

The secretary general of the International Committee of the Red Cross told
delegates that speedy responses were crucial in preventing a repeat of the
World War II Holocaust and the massacres in Yugoslavia and Rwanda in the
mid-1990s.

"It is difficult to anticipate the critical moment at which genocide will
begin or the scope that the massacre will take. Greater efforts must
therefore be made to interpret the warning signs and respond to them
adequately," Jakob Kellenberger said.

"This should not be too difficult," he said. "Alarm bells ring for those
who are listening."

The problem, he said, was that there was a "lack of will to act" and he
urged politicians, representatives of civil society and the business
sector to work together to promote dialogue, mutual understanding and
trust.

His comments echoed those of United Nations Secretary General Kofi Annan,
who told the conference Monday that the slaughter in Yugoslavia and Rwanda
could have been prevented if the world had taken action.

"The events of the 1990s, in the former Yugoslavia and in Rwanda, are
especially shameful. The international community clearly had the capacity
to prevent these events. But it lacked the will," Annan said.

Annan recommended the creation of a "Committee on the Prevention of
Genocide" and the introduction of a special rapporteur on preventing
genocide, who would report directly to the UN Security Council, the UN's
top decision-making body.

As the world marked Holocaust Memorial Day on Tuesday, Sweden's Jewish
community was to host a remembrance ceremony at Stockholm's synagogue, to
which the heads of conference delegations were invited and at which the
Swedish prime minister was to deliver an address.

The Preventing Genocide conference is the first major inter-governmental
forum on genocide since the adoption of the UN Convention on the
Prevention and Punishment of the Crime of Genocide in 1948, according to
organizers.

The meeting is scheduled to conclude Wednesday, when delegates are to
adopt a declaration that should serve as a political basis for future
discussions on preventing genocide.

The 50 countries at the conference were also due to approve a document
committing themselves to providing shelter to people threatened by
genocide.
____________________________