BurmaNet News, May 8-10, 2004

[Editor]

May 8-10, 2004, Issue # 2473

INSIDE BURMA
AFP: Myanmar opposition meets again at Aung San Suu Kyi's home
Xinhua: Myanmar's preparations in full swing for world Buddhist summit

ON THE BORDER
Irrawaddy: Burmese Refugee Set to Leave For US
Mizzima: Army Operations will not Cross into Burma

BUSINESS / MONEY
Xinhua: Myanmar launches tourism promotional campaign in Asian countries
Asian Development Bank: Myanmar Asian Development Outlook 2004 - Myanmar
Mizzima: Developing the Mekong Region as a Free Trade Area

REGIONAL
AFP: UN envoy presses for Aung San Suu Kyi's freedom, is to visit Myanmar

INTERNATIONAL
S.H.A.N.: Karen tours Europe without Shan sidekick

OPINION
Irrawaddy: What to Expect From the National Convention
Bangkok Post: Salvaging the Bangkok Process


INSIDE BURMA
_____________________________________

May 9, Agence France Presse
Myanmar opposition meets again at Aung San Suu Kyi's home

Yangon: Top leaders of Myanmar's opposition including detained democracy
icon Aung San Suu Kyi met at her home at the weekend to discuss internal
matters ahead of this month's constitutional convention, a participant in
the talks said.

National League for Democracy chairman Aung Shwe, vice chairman Tin Oo,
who remains under house arrest but was escorted to the talks by
authorities, and party secretary U Lwin met with Aung San Suu Kyi at her
Yangon home for the fourth gathering of NLD executives in 11 days.

"It was a routine meeting," U Lwin told reporters outside his home after
the Saturday session which included one hour of talks on party affairs.

Aung San Suu Kyi, a Nobel peace laureate, also remains under house arrest,
but analysts and senior NLD officials say they are hopeful she could be
freed before the convention opens on May 17.

U Lwin would not say whether the ruling military junta had agreed to give
the democracy campaigner her liberty ahead of the forum, but maintained
that her release was crucial.

"She has to be released at some point, and this is what we have
consistently been asking for," he said.

The NLD said late last month it was almost certain to attend the
convention as it expected the junta to accept its proposed changes to the
procedures under which the convention will be run.

But when asked if the junta had responded to the proposals, U Lwin said:
"Not yet."

The forum is the first step in the junta's self-described "roadmap to
democracy", which begins with the drafting of a new constitution and is
billed as ending with free elections.

The junta has ordered all participants in the convention, to which the NLD
has been invited, to register by May 14.

The party leaders were all taken into detention last May when Aung San Suu
Kyi's convoy was attacked by a pro-junta gang during a political tour of
northern Myanmar, prompting a major crackdown on the pro-democracy
opposition.

Analysts have said the convention would have no credibility without the
input of the currently detained pro-democracy icon and her party.

The convention is expected to assemble roughly 1,000 delegates from
government, political parties and ethnic representatives in a forum that
would essentially mirror a previous convention which collapsed in 1995
when the NLD walked out.

Meanwhile, Myanmar's state media warned graduating military officers to be
on the alert for unnamed "destructive elements" bent on destabilising the
nation.

"Without losing sight of internal and external destructive elements, who
are employing various wicked means and disturbing the stability and
development of the state, the graduation officers must be combat ready to
ward off the danger posed by the destructive elements," the New Light of
Myanmar reported Saturday.

_____________________________________

May 10, Xinhua News Agency
Myanmar's preparations in full swing for world Buddhist summit

Yangon: Preparations are in full swing in Myanmar for the Fourth World
Buddhist Summit scheduled for December 9 in Yangon, local press reported
on Monday.

About 150 representatives from Buddhist organizations in 30 countries are
expected to attend the three-day event to be hosted by Myanmar for the
first time, the Ministry of Religious Affairs was quoted by the Myanmar
Time as saying.

Along with more than 300 Myanmar monks, about 2,000 observers are also
expected for the religious meeting, it said.

The summit, sponsored by the Myanmar ministry and the Nenbutsushu Buddhist
Sect of Japan, is aimed at promoting friendship, mutual understanding and
cooperation among the Buddhist countries, maintaining Buddhist teachings
and practices among such countries, enhancing Buddhist education and
helping and creating a peaceful world.

The world Buddhist summit was first held in Japan in 1998, the second in
Thailand in 2000 and the third in Cambodia in 2002.

Buddhism stands one of four main historical religions of the world with
over 360 million followers. Myanmar is a country with a majority of its
population (about 80 percent) believing in Buddhism. It is estimated that
there are more than 400,000 monks and nuns in Myanmar.

For nearly 1,000 years, the country has kept Theravada (Little vehicle)
Buddhism pure and intact. It established Buddhist scripture learning
centers and other monastic education schools long ago.

Aimed at promoting the genuine Theravada Buddhism throughout the world and
the study and comprehension of the canonical texts of Buddhism, Myanmar
opened an International Theravada Buddhist Missionary University in Yangon
in December 1998, the country's first permanent center of higher learning
of the Buddhism in various languages.


ON THE BORDER
_____________________________________

May 10, Irrawaddy
Burmese Refugee Set to Leave For US - Naw Seng

The first batch of Burmese refugees will leave for resettlement in the US
from Thailand at the end of May, under a US-sponsored resettlement
program, said a Burmese refugee today.

Under the program, 187 Burmese refugees, mostly from urban areas in
Thailand, will depart from May 24 to 28, said Khin San Nwe, a refugee who
will be one of the first to be resettled. The majority will be resettled
in Los Angeles, California, while only 24 refugees will go to live in New
York, she added.

“We don’t want to leave, but there is nothing for us to do in Thailand,”
said Khin San Nwe.

In January, the US entered into discussions with the Thai government over
the possible resettlement of up to 4,000 Burmese refugees in the US. The
US embassy in Bangkok began processing applications for the resettlement
of 2,000 UNHCR-recognized Burmese refugees that month. The first 2,000 are
scheduled to leave for the US before the end of the year.

Until January, the UNHCR was charged with the responsibility of screening
Burmese refugees. But the agency temporarily stopped accepting
applications, at the request of the Thai government, until a more
restrictive government-controlled screening procedure was announced on
March 22.

The Thai government is not a party to the 1951 refugee convention,
therefore, does not officially recognize Burmese asylum seekers as
refugees.

In February, the Thai government ordered Burmese refugees living in urban
areas to be relocated to three existing camps along the Thai-Burma border.

About 120,000 Karen and Karenni refugees live in nine separate refugee
camps along Thai Burma border.

_____________________________________

May 7, Mizzima News
Army Operations will not Cross into Burma - Surajit Khound

The Indian Army has ruled out an immediate 'Bhutan-like' operation along
the Indo-Burma border to flush out the armed underground groups in
northeast India.

More preparations are required to combat the growing militancy along the
Indo-Burma border, said Brigadier GS Malhi in  Manipur on Thursday
evening.

Malhi, who is commanding the ongoing operation at Sajattampak of Manipur,
spoke to a group of reporters in Chandel district near Indo-Burma border
and said that the Army is not ready to launch Bhutan like operation across
the international border.

"We need help from all corners to flush out the militants along the
Indo-Burma border," he said.

It may be recalled that the Indian Army, in association with the Royal
Bhutan army,  launched a joint operation in various areas of Bhutan
resulting in loss of strength of the insurgent groups. Immediately after
that the Indian Army chief NC Biz disclosed that a similar operations were
in the cards to dismantle the camps in Indian ultras.


BUSINESS / MONEY
_____________________________________

May 9, Xinhua News Agency
Myanmar launches tourism promotional campaign in Asian countries

Yangon: Myanmar has begun launching tourism promotional campaign in some
Asian nations to draw more tourists to the country, the local Myanmar
Times reported in an issue to be published Monday.

Following the event in New Delhi last April which attracted 117 travel
agents and travel writers, Myanmar decides to launch promotional campaign
in Japan's two major cities, Osaka and Tokyo, on May 11 and May 13
respectively. The two events, which involve the Myanmar Airways
International, will be participated by about 25 hotel and travel agencies,
the Myanmar Tourism Promotion Board was quoted as saying.

The hotels include Sedona, Traders and Nikko Royal Lake, while the Thai
Airways International supports the campaign by extending discounted air
fares for travel to Japan, it said.

The promotional events will feature a presentation about Myanmar to be
followed by  workshops which provide negotiation between travel agents and
hotels of Myanmar and Japan.

Besides, two more events are planned in Singapore and Malaysia by the end
of this month.

According to official figures, as of the end of last March, Myanmar had
570 different grades of hotels with over 17,200 rooms involving an
investment of about 583 million US dollars plus 33 billion Kyats (about
41.2 million dollars).

The statistics reveal that tourist arrivals in Myanmar reached 277,600
during the first seven months of 2003-04 fiscal year which ended in March,
increasing by 27.3 percent compared with the same period of the previous
year.

Statistics also indicate that contracted foreign investment in the sector
of hotels and tourism of Myanmar has so far amounted to 1.06 billion
dollars in 43 projects since it started to open to such foreign investment
in late 1988.

_____________________________________

May 9, Asian Development Bank
Asian Development Outlook 2004 - Myanmar

GDP growth was officially reported at 10% for FY2002, but other indicators
suggest that it was well below potential. Major problems, such as
continuing budget deficits caused by subsidies to weak state enterprises
and underinvestment in social areas, are yet to be addressed. Medium-term
prospects are limited, but solid gains could be made over the longer term
once the macroeconomic imbalances and structural issues are resolved.

Economic Assessment

According to the official estimate, GDP grew by 10.0% in FY2002 (ended 31
March 2003); growth was estimated at slightly over 10% in FY2003. The
stronger areas of expansion in FY2002 were energy, mining, construction,
and manufacturing. However, in FY2003 Myanmar faced several problems that
constrained growth, including a hardening of international trade and
investment sanctions that hurt exports of textiles and other goods and led
to the closure of some garment factories. Troubles in the banking sector,
shortages of certain imports and of power, and slower growth in fixed
investment also hindered the economy.

For full text please see: http://www.adb.org/Documents/Books/ADO/2004/mya.asp

_____________________________________

May 10, Mizzima News - Nava Thakuria
Developing the Mekong Region as a Free Trade Area

Guwahati: The Asian Development Bank (ADB) is initiating a pragmatic
development policy in the Mekong region.

Known as the Regional Cooperative Strategy Program, the ADB plans to
create an East-West Economic Corridor from the 1500km land route that
stretches across Burma, Thailand and Vietnam.

The Mekong has been the scene for the ADB's to apply its new "integrated
sub-regional development" model.

In addition to the three countries mentioned, ADB's Mekong sub region also
includes Cambodia, Laos and Yunnan (China).

The initiative has been revealed through the ADB website and has attracted
attention from business communities in Northeast India, who view the
proposal as a potential avenue for trade with Southeast Asia.

The North eastern part of India, bordering Bangladesh, Burma and Tibet
(China), is currently a land locked 'dead business zone' from the
perspective of mainland India.

Sanjib Barua, an international expert on the region based in Guwahati
explained; "When New Delhi cut off ties with Burma in 1962 after it became
a military dictatorship, it locked in Northeast India's isolated buffer
zone status.  But linkages between Northeast Indian ethnic groups and
Burma's minority groups continues."

The new strategic framework openly reflects the principles of
globalisation in a much more aggressive manner than in the past.

The ADB plans to begin major infrastructure projects such as roads and
power transmissions that will link the countries of the Mekong area and
will in turn attract foreign direct investments and facilitate trade.

The hope for outcome is that growth is increased and poverty reduced.

This principle is not new for the Mekong, as the ADB has been initiating
sub-regional economic cooperation since 1992.  ADB plans to increase its
sub-regional economic cooperation programs in nine key sectors:
transportation, energy, telecommunications, human resources development,
tourism, the environment, trade, investment and agriculture.

ADB officials are also planning to stimulate trade and private sector
activity by enabling vehicles the rights to cross borders with a minimum
of red tape.

In total, the ADB has identified over 100 projects for the region which
will require US$ 40 billion worth of funding over the next quarter a
century.


REGIONAL
_____________________________________

May 9, Agence France Presse
UN envoy presses for Aung San Suu Kyi's freedom, is to visit Myanmar

Kuala Lumpur: UN envoy Razali Ismail reiterated Sunday a call for
Myanmar's military junta to release detained pro-democracy leader Aung San
Suu Kyi before a May 17 convention billed as a step towards democracy.

Razali, who lives in Malaysia, also said he wanted to travel to Myanmar as
soon as he could to discuss "important issues".

On the Nobel peace laureate, who has been detained for more than a year,
he told AFP: "It is important for her to be released before the convention
starts."

"It is my intention to go to Yangon as soon as possible. But it depends on
the government. There are important issues to be discussed," he said,
without elaborating.

Aung San Suu Kyi is under house arrest -- her third such detention since
1988 -- after being detained in May last year in the wake of political
unrest which also triggered a sweeping crackdown on her National League
for Democracy party (NLD).

Razali, a former Malaysian diplomat, was the catalyst for landmark
contacts between Myanmar's junta and Aung San Suu Kyi which began in
October 2000 but collapsed last year, dashing hopes for national
reconciliation.

Aung San Suu Kyi's NLD won the 1990 elections in Myanmar but was never
allowed to rule.

Razali last visited Yangon in early March, his 12th visit to the
military-run state aimed at securing the freedom of Aung San Suu Kyi and
to spur democratic reforms.

The UN envoy had previously said the release of several of Aung San Suu
Kyi's lieutenants and a rare march through Yangon last month reflected a
willingness of all to make a planned "roadmap to democracy" a success.

The roadmap was unveiled by Prime Minister General Khin Nyunt last year as
part of a public relations campaign rolled out by the junta after it took
Aung San Suu Kyi into detention.

The May 17 convention to draw up a new constitution is expected to
assemble government, political parties and ethnic representatives in the
first step on the so-called "roadmap to democracy" that will supposedly
lead to free elections.

_____________________________________

8 May, Shan Herald Agency for News
Karen tours Europe without Shan sidekick
Due to his Shan partner's other commitments, he had been forced to do a
solo "promotion" campaign in Europe this year, unlike the previous three
years, said the Karen National Union's ace diplomat upon conclusion of his
trip yesterday.

Saw Sarky, 52, Plenipotentiary representative of the KNU for Europe and
East Timor and Central Committee member, nevertheless summed up his
two-day visit to Lisbon (5 May) and Madrid (6 May) as a success, promising
that the upcoming tour in June to the Netherlands, the next EU president,
will certainly be with Wansai, General Secretary of the exiled Shan
Democratic Union.

The two had toured Greece, Portugal, Spain and Netherlands together last
year.

The jolly diplomat, who speaks seven languages apart from Karen, which
include Italian, French, German, Portuguese and English, met Dr Rosa
Batoreu, Director General of Asia and Oceania, Portugal's Ministry of
Foreign Affairs and Dr Carlos Morales Sanchez, Deputy Director General of
Asia and Oceania, Spain's Ministry of Foreign Affairs, to whom he briefed
on the current developments: the KNU-Rangoon ceasefire talks, the ongoing
human rights abuses by Burma Army in spite of the "gentlemanly agreed"
ceasefire, the KNU's position regarding the forthcoming "National
Convention" and the drug situation in Burma.

Asked by Dr Morales what kind of "selective trade sanctions" the EU and
Spain could enact if no real changes would materialize in Burma in the
near future, he replied: "They must target capital-intensive sectors
where, for instance, the capital to labor ratio is high. Otherwise, the
regime's finances rather than the common workforce should to be the EU's
targets."

The meetings had paved the way for further meetings in the future, which,
according to Saw Sarky, could be "very high level" especially in the case
of Portugal.

On the Spanish side, he said, Dr Carlos Morales said he would be most
pleased to welcome a joint KNU-SDU visit in the future as his ministry had
done in the past. Moreover, as a diplomat who had formerly been posted in
Southeast Asia, he fully understood that without the full participation of
the ethnic nationalities in any political process, there could be no
lasting political situation."

Saw Sarky is said to be a personal friend to East Timor's Nobel laureate,
Dr Jose Ramos-Horta, who had recently offered to assist in the
international efforts to achieve national reconciliation in Burma. In
addition, the jack-of-all-trades diplomat is serving as a member of the
KNU's think-tank body.


OPINION
_____________________________________

May 10, Irrawaddy
What to Expect From the National Convention - Win Min

Burma’s long-awaited National Convention is scheduled to reconvene on May
17, but will it be any different from the previous one that ground to a
halt over eight years ago?

Early indications suggest the regime will not make this process any more
open or fair than the first convention, which started in 1993 with the
task of drafting a new constitution. It adjourned in 1996, shortly after
the National League for Democracy, or NLD, walked out because of the
regime’s heavy-handed control over the proceedings. The main problems with
the previous convention remain, ranging from the convention’s organizing
committee to its composition, objectives, procedures, and timeframe.

The organizing of the convention this time is no different from the
previous one: no opposition members have a seat on the organizing
committee, and, like last time, the National Convention Convening
Commission and the National Convention Convening Work Committee, both of
which oversee the convention, are comprised only of military officials and
government bureaucrats. Secretary 2, Lt-Gen Thein Sein, is the current
Chairman of the NCCC and Chief Justice U Aung Toe continues to serve as
the Chairman of the NCCWC.

In terms of the delegates, the balance is skewed even more in the junta’s
favor this time around. In 1993, there were 702 delegates, of whom 555 (or
80 percent) were handpicked by the junta. The NLD, which won 392 of the
485 parliament seats up for grabs in the 1990 election, was allowed only
92 delegates (or 13 percent). But the NLD agreed to attend the 1993
convention anyway, in the hope that participants would be able to discuss
issues freely.

This time the regime has increased the number of handpicked delegates,
with the total number of delegates believed to total over 1,000. At the
same time, the number of NLD members invited to attend has been reduced.

In the last convention, leaders from ethnic ceasefire armies were invited
as observers. This time, five ethnic leaders each from 17 ceasefire
organizations were invited as delegates. While this seems to signify that
the junta recognizes the importance of including more ethnic
representatives in the process, it may also be part of a broader effort to
marginalize the NLD. This time, a couple of dismissed party members were
also invited.

Regarding the objectives, nothing has changed. At the beginning of the
1993 convention, the Convening Commission announced six main objectives as
a guide for drafting the constitution. These objectives had not been
discussed with other stakeholders before the convention and could not be
challenged during the convention. Although the NLD and other elected
candidates from ethnic parties were willing to go along with the first
five objectives, which were mainly about nation-building, they could not
endorse the last one which enshrines the leading role of the military in
politics. Recently, Lt-Gen Thein Sein announced that the same objectives
would stand in the 2004 convention.

And so will the old procedures. The convention’s original procedures,
unilaterally laid down by the Convening Commission, greatly restrict
freedom of expression and association. For instance, all speeches and
papers must be screened by the Work Committee, which in the first
convention often changed the wording of papers to suit the regime’s
interests. Delegates were then ordered to read out their altered papers
word for word, with those who slipped in their own language ordered to
stop reading or even dismissed from the convention. One elected NLD MP, Dr
Aung Khin Sint, was sentenced to 20 years imprisonment just for
distributing copies of his uncensored speech.

Another procedural problem will arise because of Order 5/96. Issued by the
junta after the convention was adjourned in 1996, the order states that
anyone who criticizes the National Convention or writes a constitution
outside the convention can be sentenced to 20 years imprisonment. Two
weeks ago, the NLD asked the junta to revoke the order but the regime has
not done so.

The 1993 convention was held in Rangoon, but this time, the convention has
been moved to Nyaung Hnapin village in Hmawbi Township, a military town 25
miles outside the capital. The distance and isolation will make it
difficult for delegates to consult with other members of their parties or
to meet with their families.

In addition, the regime has announced no timeframe for completing the
convention. The previous convention met on and off during six periods over
three years. One reason for the recesses was that the regime could not
deal with the demands set by various ethnic delegates for autonomy in
their areas. Since the convention this time will include representatives
of several ethnic armies—who fought for decades for increased political
power—the issue of ethnic rights will certainly be raised again. Whether
the regime will be willing to make more concessions now remains to be
seen.

The regime recently refused to attend the second round of the Bangkok
process scheduled for April 29 and 30. It seems the regime did not want to
hear any international criticism of its National Convention or of the fact
that NLD leader Aung San Suu Kyi and her deputy, U Tin Oo, have still not
been released from house arrest. It is to be hoped that something positive
will come out of the convention, but indications so far are not very
promising.

Win Min is a researcher on military-civilian relations.

_____________________________________

May 9, Bangkok Post
Salvaging the Bangkok Process - Myint Shwe

Thailand is in a unique position to help bring about the much-desired
reconciliation of Burma with the world community

The Bangkok Process, a diplomatic bridge between Burma and the
international community to allow Burma's military government to implement
democracy in a series of seven steps, has hit some snags, and lately a
section of the Thai media has pronounced the initiative from the
government of Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra a doomed project. A piece
in the Nation on April 26 referred to the current atmosphere as ''roadmap
hysteria'', and said "the Bangkok Process, (in) its attempt to mediate a
solution to the political situation in Burma, has already outlived its
usefulness."

The Nation's criticism focussed on Thailand's ''honest broker" role, which
it suspected was an indirect way of self-promotion by the Thai foreign
minister in his anticipated bid to become United Nations secretary-general
in the near future. It also said that Thailand's role in Burma's national
reconciliation process is redundant, pointing out the existing UN role in
Burma.

Given these criticisms, it is imperative that an accurate assessment be
made of the likelihood for success of the Bangkok Process and the
relevance of the role Thailand is playing. Two factors, the dynamics of
Burmese domestic politics and the strength of regional (peer) pressures,
need to be looked at first.

Burma's democratic transition process has yet to see a real beginning, 14
years after the election which should have brought the National League for
Democracy (NLD), led by Aung San Suu Kyi, to power in 1990. Aung San Suu
Kyi is now a year into her third house arrest. The Bush Administration,
calling for her immediate release, subjected Burma to comprehensive
economic sanctions last August.

In December, Thailand hosted the opening stage of what would become known
as the Bangkok Process, which presented Win Aung, the Burmese foreign
minister, to the international community. He brought with him a seven-step
plan for political transition, fathered by General Khin Nyunt, the
''appointed'' prime minister of Burma.

The half-day opening event started off in a low key, but it ended well,
even giving a semblance of a silver lining for the democratisation
process. The second meeting was set by the end of last month and was
expected to bring an increased number of international spectators ardent
for more good news, including the release of Aung San Suu Kyi.

But last month Rangoon informed Bangkok that it was not ready for the
planned second meeting of the Process, and it wanted to reschedule to some
time after the resumption of the constitutional convention that was halted
eight years ago.

Rangoon's excuse that it is busy with preparations for the convention is
technical in nature. But given Burma's track record, as well as the recent
silent tension in Rangoon, worldwide Burma watchers are understandably
apprehensive. Thai leaders have agreed to shift the meeting to a later
date, but it has not yet been set.

CONSTITUTIONAL CONVENTION

Burma's roadmap to democracy came into being on short notice, as a rescue
plan prepared by Rangoon at the request of Bangkok, to dodge the political
dead-end after Aung San Suu Kyi was arrested again. The Association of
Southeast Asian Nations (Asean) endorsed the Burmese plan at its meeting
in Bali in October 2003. Rangoon also received the tacit approval of
unsympathetic western nations when the junta invited Aung San Suu Kyi and
the NLD to the national convention, which she had previously boycotted.
Thailand's offer to form a bridge between Burma and the West in the
reforming process increased the junta's commitment.

The junta has insisted on a leading role for the military in the new
makeup, as stated in the document called ''104 Guidelines and
Principles,'' approved by the last convention before it finally halted in
1996. The various segments of the Burmese political spectrum have never
built up enough confidence between them to begin to work together. The
distrust is evident in the political language between the groups.

Re-convening the constitutional convention, the first step in Rangoon's
roadmap, is thus the most difficult step. U Khin Maung Gyi, chairman of
National Unity Party which ruled Burma in the past as the Burma Socialist
Program Party (BSPP), said that once this is accomplished, the next steps
would be relatively smooth and fast. The NUP won 10 seats in the 1990
election.

Rangoon has showed its determination to see the constitutional convention
process through to the end this time _ with or without the participation
of the NLD. Myanmar TV beamed reports of meticulous preparations of the
convention venue supervised by junta generals, who are confident for solid
reasons.

For one, Burma's post-1990 election political arena has changed into a
fight between a power challenger and a power incumbent, with the rest of
the country looking on. Also, the junta has recruited important delegates,
nonpoliticians, to the convention from various segments of the population.
Most of Burma's numerous armed minorities have now entered into a
cease-fire agreement with the government.

Thirdly, the major Burmese opposition, the NLD, does not have a feasible
alternative to the junta's roadmap for democracy. Above all, time is on
the side of the junta. The overly-extended period since the last election
has means that the politics of the opposition has almost lost its meaning.
The endorsement by Asean and the tacit approval of the West of Rangoon's
''seven-step plan'' indicate an acceptance on the junta's side of the
effort to conclude the interminably long transition process.

Most of the Burmese opposition considers the convention to be only a ploy
by the junta to re-legitimate itself. This may be true, but the opposition
may be overlooking another equally important aspect. The convention is the
first step in putting the country back on a constitutional platform. The
new constitution certainly will be far from ideal, but as the first
product of groups working together it will be the only way to separate the
current junta from the state which it currently monopolises.

Moreover, If the NLD chooses to opt-out of the convention, it could be
difficult to opt-in to the next steps, especially the next election, given
the junta's level of cynicism.

It is not the convention but the next election _ the fourth step in the
roadmap strategy_ which is vitally important for the political opposition.
So long as its political rival is the military, NLD can win _ probably not
by a landslide again _ future elections and control the legislature. A
democratic majority parliament can lay siege to any president at the top,
to foil future undemocratic tendencies. Constitutions can be revised or
replaced over time. Thailand had seventeen constitutions before achieving
its current level of democracy. The real politics of Burma also demands a
long-term vision from all involved.

Colonel James Lum Dau of Kachin Independence Organisation (KIO) told
Perspective that boycotting the national convention or not working
together with the junta would amount to leaving all affairs of the country
to the junta. Non-cooperation will only serve the power incumbent. The KIO
delegation has already left their northern Burma homeland to take part in
the convention. Armed ethnic groups are expected to be more outspoken than
the politicians in the convention. And ideally, the presence of Aung San
Suu Kyi at the convention could embolden the delegates to radicalise it.

But the question of Aung San Suu Kyi remains. Since she is the only person
the junta cannot silence in Burma, if she is outside the convention it
will cost the regime dearly.

The ''enlightened'' section of the junta, however _ which seems to be
winning the junta's inner struggle at the moment _ discerns the value and
utility of her in their reconciliation with the West. The hard-liners
among the junta elite cannot stand her style (open, confrontational) of
politics, which is new to them. Emotions and personalities speak volumes
in the personal politics of Burma. But the need to accommodate Aung San
Suu Kyi seems a fact all are agreed upon inside the junta now.

Recently the junta allowed Aung San Suu Kyi to meet with her top political
lieutenants, and the NLD leadership is now thought to be secretly asking
certain concessions from the junta leaders. NLD spokesperson U Lwin
disclosed to AFP that his party "is almost certain to participate in the
convention, citing the interests of the country." He said he hopes Aung
San Suu Kyi will be released on the eve of the convention opening at the
latest. At the moment she is confined to her house, barred from her daily
party functions and reporters.

WAITING FOR GOOD NEWS

The name ''Bangkok Process'' is actually a misnomer. Burma's real
political process takes place in Rangoon, in fits and starts, depending on
the changing level of political will. Developments in Rangoon are
reflected in the Bangkok meetings, relaying information for international
reaction, but like it or not, Rangoon has total control over the Process.

That said, there are great advantages to the Burmese leadership if it can
solve its national problems, or at least give assurances that they can be
solved soon. Not least is to keep its standing in Asean.

Two years from now, Burma will serve a term as leader of the regional
bloc. Asean is solidly behind Burma's inclusion in the upcoming
Asia-Europe Meeting (Asem) gathering in October.

The Burmese generals have no friends in the West, and whether they admit
it or not, they rely heavily on their economically stronger neighbors in
Asean for many of their projects, political and economic.

Back in the year 2000, one pro-regime Burmese scholar wrote, in a
semi-official tone, in an academic journal published in Singapore,
Contemporary South East Asia, "Myanmar will not disappoint friends and
neighbors in ... its national reconciliation process."

But why would Burma want to continue to participate in the Bangkok
Process? There is already a UN process headed by special envoy Razali
Ismail to solve Burma's national problem, reasoned the Nation.

Multilateral formats, seemingly the most legitimate, do not always succeed
in solving long-standing political issues, especially in cases where an
international policy disunity exists and where personal politics reign
supreme, as is the case in Burma. The most important party for
reconciliation for the Burmese junta is, contrary to conventional wisdom,
not the political opposition, but the powerful West, particularly
Washington. Rangoon has called on Washington to directly deal with it,
starting with the narcotics question, but so far without success.

Thailand, as Washington's long standing and trusted ally in Southeast
Asia, is the best candidate as the liaison between Rangoon and Washington,
should the latter wants to change its mood and begin looking for channels
of dialogue. Washington will scorn deals with Rangoon until Rangoon
fulfills its long list of political demands.

In the meantime, the Bangkok Process provides a venue to begin the first
stage of repatriation into the global family. That explains why other
nations with a softer policy than the US on Burma are participating.
Bangkok will remain Rangoon's window to the West until Burma is fully
acceptable to the liberal West for direct deals. Rangoon also needs to
continue to show up and sell itself, until it finds the wanted buyers.

It was in regard for Rangoon's sensitivity to the principle of
non-interference (one of the two main working ethics of Asean, the other
being consensus in group decisions) that Bangkok consented to a quiet and
informal diplomacy.

Some in the Thai media overlook exactly this aspect _ politics as the art
of the possible _ when apparently following the often superficial, western
lead in the issue.

Apparently in response to media criticisms, Thai Foreign Ministry
spokesperson Sihasak Pueangketkeow explained Thailand's difficult position
at an Foreign Correspondents Club of Thailand (FCCT) meeting at the end of
last month, the date planned for Win Aung's show.

He said that in the past Thailand has been accused of being opportunistic
in maintaining its economic ties with Burma while doing nothing for
Burmese democracy. Now, with the Bangkok Process, Thailand is being
accused of helping only the side of the junta.

The international community wants to see real progress in the
democratisation process this time. The opposition, with some face saving
complaints, seems to be participating at the last minute.

As host of the Bangkok Process, Thailand stands to gain in prestige if it
succeeds and be embarrassed if it fails. Even if Bangkok is acting partly
out of self-interest, it is also serving the interests of the fifty two
million Burmese suffering undeservedly under political oppression and
economic sanctions, as well as Asean and the entire international
community. The Bangkok Process is relevant for the purpose of Burma's
reconciliation with the world.

The Burmese junta is an anachronistic oxymoron to the world's historical
trend. But, if they demonstrate the ''will to reform'', no matter what the
venue, this message should not be ignored.

It is not known when Win Aung's next trip to Bangkok will be, but whenever
it is, he will have to come bearing good news. He seems to be kept waiting
for that good news to happen.

U Myint Shwe is an interning journalist at the Post. He has a M.A. in
Political Science from York University in Canada.