BurmaNet News, May 15-17, 2004

[Editor]

May 15-17, 2004, Issue # 2477

"That the NLD and the ethnic nationalities have remained true to their
objectives and convictions comes as no surprise to those us who have
observed Burma...from afar."
US Senator Mitch McConnell, as quoted in Agence France Presse, May 15, 2004


INSIDE BURMA
AFP: Myanmar's constitutional talks open despite opposition boycott
Financial Times: Burma's military rulers in 'sham' drive on constitution
AFP: Myanmar drops death sentences against journalist, ILO-linked figures
Irrawaddy: Burma Army on Alert as National Convention Begins

BUSINESS
AP: Myanmar continues to threaten ASEM summit in Hanoi
Mizzima: Traders Worry Over New Government in India

REGIONAL
AFP: Malaysian police arrest activists demonstrating for democracy in Myanmar
AFP: Thailand dismayed over Myanmar convention without opposition role

INTERNATIONAL
Sunday Times (Australia): Annan plea for Suu Kyi
AFP: US asks Myanmar's junta to consider opposition demands
M2 Newswire: Mike O'Brien urges Burma's military regime to reconsider
requests by the National League for Democracy

OPINION/OTHER
Bangkok Post: Demilitarisation is key to transition


INSIDE BURMA
_____________________________________

May 17, Agence France Presse
Myanmar's constitutional talks open despite opposition boycott

Yangon: Myanmar's ruling junta opened constitutional talks here Monday
despite a boycott called by the pro-democracy opposition over the
detention of its leader Aung San Suu Kyi.

Officials said that 1,076 delegates, mostly handpicked by the government
and from all walks of life including farmers, workers and academics,
attended the forum which is being held at a complex north of the capital
Yangon.

"The emergence of the state constitution is the duty of all citizens of
our country. We are now in the meeting hall to discharge this duty which
is of utmost importance," convention organiser Lieutenant General Thein
Sein said in an opening speech.

Thein Sein said that during the national convention, delegates would
formulate principles which would form the basis of a constitution for
Myanmar, which has been ruled by the military for four decades.

The talks are the first step in the regime's "roadmap to democracy"
unveiled last year which is billed as ending in free elections. The
process has been dismissed as a sham by Washington as well as rights
groups.

Myanmar's government has not disclosed how long the convention will run
for. Some analysts believe it will continue for months while others
speculate it could go into recess as soon as this week.

Thein Sein insisted in his speech that the talks would be held under the
same precepts that governed an earlier convention which began in 1993 but
collapsed in 1996 when the National League for Democracy (NLD) walked out.

The junta's refusal to reform the rules under which the talks are held was
another reason behind the boycott from the NLD, whose leader has been in
detention for one year despite intense international protests.

In an apparent reference to the rancour between the two sides on Myanmar's
political divide, Thein Sein said delegates should set aside their
personal beliefs.

"I would like to urge the delegates to coordinate, discuss and make
suggestions... free from personal attachments and attachments to
ideologies, locality or race but in the interests of the nation and the
people," he said.

Myanmar's constitution was abolished in 1988 when the military reasserted
control under the banner of the State Law and Order Restoration Council, a
regime which in 1997 was re-christened the State Peace and Development
Council.

_____________________________________

May 17, Financial Times
Burma's military rulers in 'sham' drive on constitution - Amy Kazmin

Bangkok: Burma's military rulers are reviving public debate today on a new
constitution as part of a political "roadmap", which Rangoon unveiled last
year following pressure from Asian allies to clean up its image.

But with Aung San Suu Kyi, Burma's charismatic opposition leader, again
under house arrest, and her National League for Democracy party (NLD)
boycotting the talks, US politicians and human rights groups have already
dubbed the so-called National Convention to rewrite the constitution a
sham.

Western diplomats say it appears to have been set up merely to provide a
civilian face - and a veneer of respectability - to the perpetuation of
military rule.

In 1990, Burmese voters fed up with three decades of inept and oppressive
military rule handed a landslide parliamentary election victory to the
two-year old NDL, whose leader, Ms Suu Kyi, was also then under house
arrest.

Burma's stunned generals refused to cede power. Instead, they proclaimed
the vote was only to elect delegates for a National Convention, which
would write a new constitution before any political handover.

The constitutional talks that eventually started as a result went on for
three years, but were suspended in 1996 after NLD delegates walked out.
The NLD said last Friday it would not attend the talks, because of the
junta's refusal to guarantee free and open discussion, or to release Ms
Suu Kyi.

Rangoon's roadmap was charted largely to appease fellow members of the
Association of South-East Asian Nations, which were embarrassed when Ms
Suu Kyi was attacked and re-arrested last May, just a year after her
freedom from house arrest raised hopes of change.

Concerned that Asean's reputation was being hurt by the generals'
intransigence, Asean countries have quietly told the junta to make
progress towards reform by 2006, when Rangoon is due to take over the
regional group's leadership.

The national convention is supposed to be the first step towards "free and
fair" elections. But ground rules for the talks already point to an
outcome far short of real civilian government, as delegates are expected
to complete, and endorse, the controversial draft constitution abandoned
earlier.

That draft's "guiding principle" - mandated by the junta - states that the
constitution will guarantee the military's independence and pre-eminent
political role.

Despite this unpromising starting point, the NLD initially said it would
participate in the talks if the generals freed Ms Suu Kyi, allowed NLD
offices to re-open and guaranteed that all constitutional principles could
be discussed afresh, conditions the government has described as
"unreasonable".

The junta said in a weekend statement that it had "fulfilled the demands
of the NLD to the most possible degree", and had asked Ms Su Kyi to
"retain (her) status quo with patience".

The NLD's absence will not deter the generals from attempting a political
makeover, analysts and diplomats say. The junta's quest will be to try to
reach agreements with Burma's myriad ethnic minorities, which together
account for around 35 per cent of the population.

But if the generals can reach deals with ethnic groups, the junta is
likely to present its constitution as a fait accompli, and try to move on
to the next stage of the process, ignoring the complaints of the west, as
long as their Asian allies do not complain, says the analyst.

_____________________________________

May 15, Agence France Presse
Myanmar drops death sentences against journalist, ILO-linked figures

Yangon: Myanmar's junta has dropped death sentences against nine men
accused of high treason, including a journalist and three men charged over
contacts with the International Labour Organisation (ILO), legal and
family sources said Saturday.

The nine were convicted last November for separate offences, mostly
related to alleged plots to overthrow the military government.

Zaw Thet Htway, the editor of Myanmar sports magazine First Eleven, had
his sentence commuted to three years imprisonment in a Supreme Court
hearing on May 12, his wife Ma Khine Cho Zaw Win told AFP.

"I am very, very happy that his sentence has been reduced to only three
years. I have not been able to see him yet to discuss about whether or not
further legal steps are to be taken," she said.

The lawyer acting for the nine confirmed reports that the court overturned
the death penalty and ordered new jail sentences.

Radio Free Asia said five were now imprisoned for life and the other four
were ordered to serve three years in prison, although it was not clear if
this included time already served.

The other men given three-year terms were Min Kyi, Aye Myint and Zaw Myo
Htet, who were arrested over their contacts with the ILO.

The ILO had objected to the death sentences handed down to the three,
saying it cast doubt on the credibility of the regime's cooperation with
the organisation, which is trying to stamp out forced labour in Myanmar.

Media groups had also campaigned for the release of Zaw Thet Htway, whose
magazine is the country's most widely read sports publication with a
circulation of more than 50,000.

He was arrested last July after the publication of a story alleging misuse
of a four-million-dollar international grant to promote football in
Myanmar.

Shortly afterwards, the magazine published an article on a fine imposed by
the organisers of the Asian Champion Club tournament on a Myanmar football
team for its failure to participate.

Decisions to overturn sentences for political crimes are rare in Myanmar,
but after the condemnation of the ILO three, the government admitted the
court's original decision was flawed and agreed to review it, the ILO said
in March.

_____________________________________

May 17, Irrawaddy
Burma Army on Alert as National Convention Begins - Naw Seng

Burma Army battalions in border areas went on the move and bigger guard
details were placed on government offices in towns, as the National
Convention tasked with drafting a new constitution began on Monday, ethnic
army sources said.

Nam Khur Hsen, spokeswoman of the Shan State Army-South, or SSA-S, said
there was no sign of major operations on the part of the Burma Army, but
battalions were moving around.

“I think the junta ordered its army on alert across the whole country,
because they don’t trust any group in Burma,” said Nam Khur Hsen. “We are
cautious that the junta may exploit the situation.”

The Burma Army is also worried that the SSA-S’s “resistance day” will be
celebrated on May 21st, she added. The SSA-S has been fighting Burma’s
military government since January 1996.

According the to the Shan Herald Agency for News, or SHAN, the Burmese,
Thai, SSA-S and United Wa State, or UWSA, armies have been put on alert
because Rangoon has instructed that it doesn’t want any major incident
during the National Convention. All four armies operate along the
Thai-Burma border.

SHAN said the Burmese government was unhappy that its closest ally among
the ceasefire groups, the UWSA, supported a statement issued by six ethnic
ceasefire groups with regard to the National Convention. The statement
demanded the right to discuss or amend some articles and objectives, which
it said were not in accord with democratic principles.

A resident in Tachilek, a Shan State, Burma border town abutting Thailand,
said Burmese soldiers and local militia were guarding government offices
in town. Last week two government-owned oil tankers were ambushed leaving
several dead.

Meanwhile, in Kachin State three Burma Army light infantry battalions,
LIBs 320, 387 and 438 left Bhamo township for operations along the
Bhamo-Myitkyina highway area, according to Aung San, a Kachin Independence
Army, or KIA, officer.

On Saturday the KIA handed over five Burma Army soldiers—arrested earlier
by KIA soldiers for banditry against villagers—back to their battalions.


BUSINESS
_____________________________________

May 17, Associated Press
Myanmar continues to threaten ASEM summit in Hanoi

Hanoi: Myanmar continues to jeopardize this year's Asia-Europe summit in
Hanoi by refusing to yield to European pressure to begin political reform
and tackle human rights, European officials said Monday.

The fifth ASEM summit, an 8-year-old forum of economic and political
cooperation designed to offset America's strong ties with Asia, is
scheduled for October. But some European countries may protest the event
if Myanmar's junta does not release opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi and
give her party a role in writing a constitution.

"It's still not 100 percent sure that it's going to take place," said Piet
de Klerk, Dutch ambassador for human rights during a visit to Hanoi. "If
nothing would change, then we have a problem."

On Monday, Myanmar opened a convention to draft the new constitution, but
the National League for Democracy - which won the 1990 general elections
but was prevented from taking office - opted not to attend after the
government turned down its demand that Suu Kyi, the party's general
secretary, and Vice Chairman Tin Oo be freed from house arrest first.

Ambassador Delfin Colome from Spain, the executive director of the
Asia-Europe Foundation - an arm of ASEM - said Monday that there was
originally optimism that Myanmar would cave to the demands, but that the
situation now looks more bleak.

"This is the biggest question mark that we have on the table," Colome said
during a visit to Hanoi to donate books on EU-Asia issues to the national
library. "The situation in Myanmar is one of a dictatorship by the
military. There is no respect for human rights and basic liberties."

Myanmar, Cambodia and Laos want to join the group, and the other members
of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations - to which the trio belong -
have threatened to veto ASEM membership for the 10 new EU members if the
Asian countries are not accepted.

The Netherlands, Britain and Italy most strongly oppose Myanmar joining
ASEM, and expressed their concerns in a meeting last month in Ireland.

"I hope that our Asian friends - and I know that some of them are making
big pressure on Myanmar - (are) able to get a way out of the problem,"
Colome said.

ASEM now includes 15 EU nations and Brunei, China, Indonesia, Japan, South
Korea, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, and Vietnam.

_____________________________________

May 16, Mizzima News
Traders Worry Over New Government in India - Surajit Khound

Guwahati: With the change of political guard in India, the relation
between India and other Southeast Asian countries is heading for a new
direction. During the last couple years, India has improved it's relations
with Southeast Asian countries to a large extent. India's relations,
particularly with neighboring Burma and Bangladesh, is remarkable as the
former National Democratic Front (NDA) government adopted a number
strategies to improve the relation with these countries.

The outgoing Prime Minister, in his last address to the nation yesterday, 
said "India has improved it's relations with Burma and other neighboring
countries due to constant support from various quarters."

Though India and Burma had signed a trade pact in 1994, the volume of
trade between the countries gained momentum in 1999 due to the untiring
effort of the former Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) led NDA government.
Moreover during this period, India and Burma agreed to expand business
operations in the information technology, oil and natural gas sectors.

Several Indian companies, including the Oil and Natural Gas Commission
(ONGC), Videsh Limited, Gail (India) Limited and other leading IT
companies, took an interest in expanding operations in Burma following
support from the Burmese junta.

Significantly, the NDA government decided to supply small weapons to the
Burma junta despite protests from various Southeast Asian countries.

During their five-year tenure, northeast India, that shares a 600 km
border with Burma, benefited greatly from the opening of border trade
points. The volume of trade between India and Burma increased three-fold.
Additionally, the Indian Commerce Ministry opened a new trade point at
Zokhuthar, giving a new fillip to the ongoing border trade between the
countries.

Since the elections, however, several trade bodies in northeast India have
expressed doubts regard the future of these trade initiatives.

"Will they be able to carry forward the trade policy with Burma and other
Southeast Asian countries", the general secretary of the Indo-Burma
traders union, Y Kapoor asked.

According to him, the NDA has done the most for northeast India,
particularly in the trade sector, which benefited young entrepreneurs in
the region. "Our trade with Burma has increased 20% during the last couple
of years. This is a healthy sign for the country as well as for the
northeast India, which was earlier neglected by successive governments,"
Kapoor said.

In view of improving relations with Burma, leading Indian companies are
now willing to invest in Burma and similarly Burmese are also keen to
expand their business in northeast India, continued Kapoor.

"This move has further cemented our relations among Indian and Burmese
people. But the change of guard may affect ongoing relations between the
countries," he said.

Another trade organization, the Northeast Federation of International
Trade, has appealed to the new government in Delhi to carry forward the
current trade policy, particularly with Burma.

The president of the trade body, SC Agarwal, who had close ties with the
previous Indian Commerce Ministry, said that the region is eagerly waiting
a comprehensive announcement from the new government so that traders of
the region, and their on-going business connections, can smoothly run
their business.

"With the globalization of trade, India should look forward, towards
Southeast Asian countries to increase their volume of business. The region
has immense business potential for which a positive policy is a must from
the new government, he added.

Meanwhile the leading trade body of India, the Confederation of Indian
Industry (CII), has also said that the reforms adopted by the former NDA
Government would go forward. But many traders of the region, it has been
learnt, have opted for other businesses instead of investing in border
trade as uncertainty prevails due to the change in national political
leadership.


REGIONAL
_____________________________________

May 17, Agence France Presse
Malaysian police arrest activists demonstrating for democracy in Myanmar

Kuala Lumpur: Nearly two dozen people, including a five year-old boy, were
arrested Monday while protesting against Myanmar's ruling military junta
outside the Myanmar embassy in Malaysia, police said.

The demonstration came as Myanmar's opposition National League for
Democracy (NLD) refused to attend key constitutional talks that opened in
Yangon.

"It was a peaceful demonstration but it is against our law to hold public
gatherings without a permit," local police chief Mohamad Noor told AFP.

Mohamad said police were investigating if the 21 people arrested had valid
travel documents.

"They are being held at the Cheras police station (just outside the
capital Kuala Lumpur) and are in good health," he said.

The NLD is boycotting the constitutional talks because Myanmar's military
rulers refused to free its leader, democracy icon Aung San Suu Kyi, from
house arrest or relax repressive rules surrounding the forum.

Aung San Suu Kyi was taken into custody one year ago after a clash between
her supporters and a junta-backed mob.

The constitutional forum under way at a venue north of Yangon has drawn
together more than 1,000 delegates, mostly handpicked by the government
and from all walks of life including farmers, workers and academics.

The talks are the first step in the regime's "roadmap to democracy", which
it says will end in free elections but without the NLD's presence have
been dismissed as a sham by Washington and human rights groups.

A way must be found for the NLD to attend the talks, Malaysia's Foreign
Minister Syed Hamid Albar said Monday.

Syed Hamid said the NLD's absence was a "hiccup" that had to be addressed
and the junta should be serious about engaging with Aung San Suu Kyi, a
Nobel Peace laureate.

"Hiccups do happen from time to time. In the process of trying to
reconcile, the best thing is for them to find ways of making sure they
(NLD) attend," he told reporters.

In April, a Myanmar embassy staff member was injured when three men tried
to burn down the embassy building.

The staff member was hospitalised with axe wounds on his hands and head,
while the embassy was partially torched.

_____________________________________

May 17, Agence France Presse
Thailand dismayed over Myanmar convention without opposition role

Bangkok: Thailand said Monday it was disappointed that neighbouring
Myanmar was holding constitutional talks despite a boycott called by the
pro-democracy opposition over the detention of Aung San Suu Kyi.

Thai Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra said it was unfortunate the
military junta was unable to break the impasse with the National League
for Democracy (NLD) which also protested the regime's refusal to reform
the forum's rules.

"I don't feel comfortable," Thaksin told reporters. "I am trying not to
intervene in their internal affairs but if you ask me personally, I would
like to see all parties included."

The premier said he would ask his foreign minister, Surakiart Sathirathai,
to consult Yangon over the possible release from house arrest of democracy
icon Aung San Suu Kyi, who was taken into custody one year ago after a
clash between her supporters and a junta-backed mob.

"We will ask and listen for their reasons" for her continued detention,
Thaksin said, adding that he still held out the hope that the national
reconciliation process could be salvaged.

"Democracy must be step by step," he said.

Myanmar officials said 1,076 delegates, mostly handpicked by the
government and from all walks of life including farmers, workers and
academics, attended the forum which is being held at a complex north of
Yangon.

More than 50 NLD delegates had been invited but they steered clear of the
event after party chairman Aung Shwe announced the boycott Friday.

The talks are the first step in the regime's "roadmap to democracy"
unveiled last year, which purportedly ends with free elections. The
process has been dismissed as a sham by Washington as well as human rights
groups.

Officials at the convention said the talks would be held under the same
precepts that governed an earlier convention which began in 1993 but
collapsed in 1996 when the NLD walked out.

The United Nations, Washington and rights groups have expressed dismay
over the collapse of the process, which far from advancing the national
reconciliation cause has only highlighted the extent of the political
divide.


INTERNATIONAL
_____________________________________

May 16, The Sunday Times (Australia)
Annan plea for Suu Kyi

New York: UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan yesterday asked Burma to strike
a last-minute deal that would allow the participation of democracy icon
Aung San Suu Kyi in the country's coming constitutional convention.

Suu Kyi, winner of the 1991 Nobel Peace Prize, has been confined to her
home since September, her telephone cut off and visitors restricted.
Before that, she was detained at a secret location.

Suu Kyi's National League for Democracy had demanded her freedom and that
of vice-chairman Tin Oo, as a condition for joining Monday's convention.

The convention was organised by the military government, which has ruled
Burma since a 1962 coup.

"The Secretary-General urges all parties to make every effort in the next
two days to reach an agreement, taking into account suggestions made by
the NLD," UN spokesman Fred Eckhard said.

_____________________________________

May 15, Agence France Presse
US asks Myanmar's junta to consider opposition demands

Washington: The United States on Friday urged Myanmar's military junta to
consider opposition and ethnic groups' demands to release democracy icon
Aung San Suu Kyi and hold free discussions to frame a national
constitution.

Washington hoped the ruling State Peace and Development Council, the
junta's official name, "will take the views of the National League for
Democracy and the United Nationalities Alliance into account in this
process," US State Department's deputy spokesman Adam Ereli said.

The National League for Democracy (NLD), Myanmar's main opposition party,
and the United Nationalities Alliance, a group of eight ethnic-based
political parties that participated in Burma's 1990 election, have
announced a boycott of a national convention organised by the junta to
draw up a new constitution.

NLD Chairman U Aung Shwe cited the Council's refusal to release senior
party leaders Aung San Suu Kyi and U Tin Oo, to reopen party offices
across the country, and its failure to clarify procedures of discussion at
the convention. The United Nationalities Alliance noted restrictive
conditions on debate at the convention next week, "which mean that it
cannot solve the country's problems."

Ereli said the United States maintained its consistent view that stability
throughout the country would require "substantive discussions" among the
democratic opposition, the ethnic minorities and the government, Ereli
said.

A previous convention collapsed in 1995 when the opposition walked out.

The United States imposed trade and other sanctions on Myanmar last year
after Aung San Suu Kyi's detention following an ambush on her NLD
supporters by a junta-backed mob.

The US Congress has been clamouring for the sanctions to be renewed and
the government is expected to heed the demand.

Senator Mitch McConnell, among sponsors of a resolution proposed in the
Senate last month to renew import sanctions against Myanmar, said he fully
supported the decision of the NLD and the United Nationalities Alliance in
boycotting the convention.

"That the NLD and the ethnic nationalities have remained true to their
objectives and convictions comes as no surprise to those us who have
observed Burma (Myanmar's old name) from afar," he said.

McConnell said the European Union, the United Nations and Myanmar's
neighbors should "stand with the people of Burma.

"They have an opportunity to do so now -- by supporting the courageous
decision of the NLD - and they must not miss it," he said.

_____________________________________

May 17, M2 Presswire
Mike O'Brien urges Burma's military regime to reconsider requests by the
National League for Democracy

Foreign Office Minister Mike O'Brien today said that he fully respected
the decision of the National League for Democracy (NLD) not to participate
in the Constitutional Convention due to start in Rangoon on 17 May. He
urged Burma's military regime to urgently reconsider the NLD's reasonable
requests and reach agreement with all parties in the time remaining before
the Convention opens.

Mr O'Brien said "I fully respect the NLD's decision which will not have
been taken lightly. I believe that the reassurances they sought from the
regime concerning the conditions under which the Convention would be held
were entirely reasonable. I know that similar concerns have been expressed
by others, including the ceasefire and ethnic groups. If the Convention is
to be at all meaningful, it is essential that delegates should be able to
discuss freely key issues such as the future role of the military.

"As I have said before, without the full participation of the NLD, the
Convention lacks any credibility. I firmly believe that the NLD's requests
to the regime which included the release of Daw Aung San Suu Kyi and her
Vice Chairman and the reopening of all their offices were wholly
justified.

"For the sake of Burma and its people I urge the regime to reconsider the
NLD's requests. There is still time before the Convention begins on
Monday."


OPINION/OTHER
_____________________________________

May 16, Bangkok Post
Demilitarisation is key to transition - Maxmilian Wechsler

The existence of so many heavily-armed segments of the Burmese population
presents a threat to any democracy which may emerge

Burma, with its estimated 400,000-strong Tatmadaw (armed forces) and
dozens of pro-government militia units fighting against 15 insurgent
armies, several gangs and some radical organisations, could probably be
considered the most militarised nation in Asia. And this doesn't even
include the 17 still heavily-armed ethnic groups which have signed a
ceasefire agreement with the governing State Peace and Development Council
(SPDC).

Many poor Burmese citizens who live in the rural areas along the border
are subject to abuse not only by the SPDC, but also by a number of armed
organisations who extort money and levy taxes from them. In some
instances, these already impoverished people must pay taxes to several
different groups who occupy the same area.

Some exiled leaders blame Burma's problems entirely on the government.
They preach democracy, but at the same time, allow their soldiers to
collect taxes and extort money from the people. "Imagine if these leaders
could run Burma some day, they might be even worse than the SPDC," said a
Burmese in exile.

"Our country is undeveloped and impoverished. Anyone who holds weapons can
control the people and make money," said U Aye Saung, who leads a small
armed group called the People's Liberation Front from outside the country.

The SPDC spends about half of its budget for the Tatmadaw 's three
branches: Army, Air Force and Navy. The money is used mostly for upgrading
the nation's military capability with expensive weaponry. This includes
the recent purchase of a fleet of 10 Russian-made MiG-29 Fulcrum jet
fighters worth US$130 million. These are the most advanced interceptors
ever bought by Burma. Russia also supplied them earlier with MI-17
helicopters and other sophisticated weapons.

A number of other countries, such as China, India, Israel, North Korea,
Pakistan, Singapore, Sweden and Ukraine, supply the Tatmadaw with
aircraft, patrol boats, ammunition, machineguns, mortars, anti-aircraft
artillery, armoured personnel carriers, tanks, and other kinds of military
equipment.

Many non-governmental organisations (NGOs) and exiled groups claim that
the SPDC troops and pro-government militias are involved in human-rights
abuses against the population, especially those who are suspected of
aiding the insurgents. A number of reports, with photographs and other
"evidence", have been distributed on the internet lately.

The pro-government militias were formed by the Burmese government and
equipped with locally made weapons. Their main duty is to "protect" the
villagers, and to make sure that they don't supply intelligence, food,
shelter or other assistance to the insurgents.

A Shan ethnic activist, Sai Doue, commented: "No one can really explain
why a relatively small country like Burma, with very limited resources,
maintains such a large military machine. The role of the SPDC army should
be to defend the country and not to be involved in the suppression of
their own people. Army members shouldn't be involved in politics or in
business. We must reform the role of the army in order that the problem
can be reduced. This also applies to the ceasefire and opposition armed
groups who may grab power one day."

CEASEFIRE GROUPS

The first armed group that made a ceasefire agreement with the Burmese
government, in March of 1989, was the Kokang's Myanmar National Democracy
Alliance Army (MNDAA). This agreement was followed by 16 more with other
groups. The Democratic Karen Buddhist Army was the last to agree to a
ceasefire, in December 1995.

Recently, the Karen National Union (KNU), which has been fighting
different Burmese regimes for over half a century, has been negotiating to
become the 18th ceasefire group. It has held several rounds of official
and unofficial meetings with the SPDC, both in Thailand and in Burma.
However, several top KNU leaders, who also want peace and a ceasefire,
strongly disagree with the way that some of their junior military officers
are manipulating the negotiations.

Most of the ceasefire and insurgent groups operate along a 6,099-km-long
mountainous, jungle-covered borderline that Burma shares with Bangladesh,
India, China, Laos and Thailand.

This type of terrain is suited for all kinds of illegal activities, such
as drug and weapons smuggling, with little chance for the central
government to stop it.

Most of the criminal activities flourish in the Northern Shan State's
Special Region 1, under the command of the MNDAA, the Shan State's Special
Region 2, with the United Wa State Army in charge, and the Eastern Shan
State's Special Region 4, controlled by the National Democratic Alliance
Army.

The 2,276-km-long coastline represents a heavy workload for the Burmese
Navy as well. Some fishing boats are engaged in smuggling, and most of the
armed groups collect taxes from off-shore vessels by using high-speed
boats mounted with machineguns.

By making agreements with the ceasefire groups, the Burmese government has
put themselves into a difficult position to effectively crack down on
illegal activities which are of concern to the international community _
particularly the drug trade _ as they have pledged to do.

This is especially true in the Shan State, where most of the opium fields
and heroin and amphetamine factories are located. This also applies to the
suppression of illegal weapons and other smuggling.

Many of the ceasefire groups maintain a full or a partial control over
their territory. Their armies are outfitted mainly with Chinese-made
weapons. It is known that SPDC officials in some cases must ask for
permission to enter a ceasefire territory and must leave their weapons
behind.

THE HOLDOUTS

There are five groups in the Military Alliance still holding out against
the SPDC: the Arakan Liberation Army, the Chin National Front, the Karen
National Liberation Army, the Karenni Army and the Shan State Army-South.

Some of the commanders of these insurgent groups are becoming increasingly
frustrated by their armed struggle which goes nowhere. They know very well
that their combined forces, numbering only around 10,000 men, have no
chance against the Tatmadaw.

Insurgent groups stationed along the Bangladeshi, Indian and Thai borders
are facing hardships from increased political and military pressure as the
three governments move steadily to strengthen relations with the SPDC.

This results in shortages of food, basic commodities and medicine, as well
as in weapons and ammunition. In this respect, the KNU receives the most
impact. The acute shortage of ammunition for their AK-47 rifles has
lessened the combat capabilities of the KNU. AK-47 bullets, which are
currently not even available, cost 12 baht (30 US cents) each. Bullets for
M-16 rifles are still available on the black market for 7 baht (17 US
cents) each.

Some soldiers who were thrown out for bad behaviour or deserted from
ceasefire, militia or insurgent groups have formed armed gangs who make
their living by kidnapping, extortion or smuggling weapons and drugs. The
biggest such group is a 100-strong Mon group called the Hongsawatoi
Restoration Party (HRP), led by Colonel Pann Nyunt, who also commands its
military wing, the Monland Restoration Army (MRA). They operate inside
Burma, opposite the southern Thai province of Prachuap Khiri Khan. But
instead of fighting the SPDC, they annoy their own people who are still
loyal to the ceasefire group, the New Mon State Party.

In the most serious incident to date, which occurred on January 12, 2004,
the MRA kidnapped at gunpoint six Burmese and one Thai worker employed by
a Thai logging company in the northwest of Kawthaung, opposite the
southern Thai province of Ranong. The group demanded and received five
million baht (US$128,000). All seven hostages were released afterwards.

The HRP cooperates closely with another gang who call themselves the
National Democratic Army. The gang consists of about 18 rogue Karen,
Merguian and Thai criminals.

A radical group called the Vigorous Burmese Student Warriors (VBSW), which
seized the Burmese Embassy in Bangkok in October 1999, and together with a
former Karen splinter group, the God's Army, attacked the Ratchaburi
Hospital in January 2000, is reported to be continuing their armed
struggle somewhere inside Burma. In a statement released by the VBSW in
August 2003, group leader Ye Thi Ha said: "As for the warriors, we will be
mainly targeting the generals who have been holding on to power and
controlling the country, and we will keep on fighting them."

THE SENSIBLE WAY

Some exiles publicly blame the militarisation in Burma on the different
ruling military regimes, including the SPDC, and express confidence that
everything will be improved when a democratic government is installed.
Privately, however, they are worried that the transformation from the
present dictatorial regime to a democracy could trigger an upsurge of
ethnic tensions which could develop into unrest and explode as in the
former Yugoslavia, where there existed only a fraction of the eight major
and approximately 135 sub-ethnic groups living in seven states and seven
divisions of Burma.

No exiled leaders have yet called for demilitarisation and disarmament,
only for democracy to be installed in Burma. Disarmament should be the
priority, otherwise the country will sink into anarchy and chaos.

"Without an effective political organisation which can guide and control
the armed groups, they will be a threat to each other and to society," U
Aye Saung warned.

A real disarmament in Burma would have to include the widespread presence
of land mines, another by-product of the long history of antagonism in
Burma. The SPDC has not signed the UN Mine Ban Treaty. The landmines were
planted in big numbers mainly by the Burmese army and the Karen National
Liberation Army, which manufactures its own anti-personnel mines,
surprisingly easy to do.

"The mines are designed not to kill but to maim. Whenever the enemy troops
step into a mine-field and a soldier is killed, the rest will leave him
behind and continue to attack us. But if a soldier is crippled, they have
to stop the advancement and carry the injured back for treatment. Then we
can ambush them," said one KNLA commander.

A senior member of the KNU, David Tharckabaw, said: "Weapons surpluses
originating from the Korean, Vietnam and Cambodian wars have been a major
source of weapons supplied to the resistance forces in Burma. Another
source, especially for ammunition, is from troops of the Burmese regime
itself. The soldiers sell ammunition to the opposite side if they can get
the right price."

"The quickest and most sensible way to demilitarise Burma is for the SPDC
to declare a renunciation of its imperialistic policies and programmes and
a nationwide ceasefire, and start the reduction of its forces to, let us
say, 10 percent of their present strength. This should be followed by the
formation of an interim government, consisting of the National League for
Democracy (NLD), ethnic and SPDC representatives. The interim government
should invite the United Nations to oversee the transition to democracy,
federalisation and the reduction of the forces of the various resistance
groups," concluded Tharckabaw.

The Burmese National Convention (NC) will begin tomorrow, May 17, with the
aim to lay the foundations and approve the principles of a new Burmese
constitution, which will then be drafted and put to a nationwide
referendum, followed by general elections.

About 80 percent of the delegates will be handpicked by the SPDC, which
include farmers, government officials, military and workers. The 20
percent left will consist of several representatives from political
parties and ceasefire groups. Some exiles are already dismissing the NC as
a ploy by the SPDC to legitimise the regime and perpetuate its power. It
will be interesting to see if any delegates, whether appointed or invited,
will raise the subject of the demilitarisation of the country.