BurmaNet News, June 3, 2004

[Editor]

June 3, 2004, Issue # 2488

“Myanmar's junta is ``impervious'' to criticism and sanctions aimed at
persuading it to return the country to democracy, said James Kelly, the
U.S. assistant secretary of state for East Asia and Pacific Affairs.”
- Bloomberg, “Myanmar's Military Is `Impervious' to Criticism, Kelly Says
,“ June 3, 2004


INSIDE BURMA
AFP: Red Cross puts Myanmar cyclone death toll at 220

ON THE BORDER
Dallas Morning News: Burmese orphans aided by ministry

BUSINESS
Japan Economic Newswire: Myanmar to import $250 mil. worth of fuel from
Malaysia
Times of India: Dhaka Clears Passage For Myanmar Gas Pipeline
Xinhua: 3 Thai-involved Myanmar industrial zone projects to start sooner

REGIONAL
AFP: Thailand to avoid controversy when Myanmar PM visits Friday
Xinhua: Myanmar PM to visit Thailand for enhancing bilateral ties

INTERNATIONAL
Bloomberg: Myanmar's Military Is `Impervious' to Criticism, Kelly Says

OPINION/OTHER
Mizzima: Burmese Junta Gradually losing the Regional Support
Irrawaddy: Burma’s Road Map: The End of Troubles for Thailand?


INSIDE BURMA
______________________________________

June 3, Agence France Presse
Red Cross puts Myanmar cyclone death toll at 220

Yangon: The death toll from last month's cyclone which devastated
Myanmar's west coast has risen to 220 with 14,000 people homeless, the Red
Cross said Thursday ahead of launching an emergency appeal for relief aid.

"There are 220 people dead," Uma Narayanan, acting head of delegation of
the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies in
Yangon, told AFP, citing figures reported to the agency by government
officials.

She added that an "unknown" number of people were missing from the worst
cyclone to hit the coastal communities of Rakhine state, near Bangladesh,
in nearly 40 years.

"We are going to launch an international appeal which will go out to Red
Cross societies around the world, either today or early tomorrow, and our
target is for basic food and non-basic food items," she said.

The appeal was expected to raise 120,000 dollars worth of aid, she said.

Red Cross officers and volunteers were on site in Sittwe, one of the
hardest hit townships whose harbour was devastated by the storm, and
confirmed official reports of severe damage to buildings such as schools
and homes, Narayanan said.

Several roads have been washed away in the storm's tidal surges, and at
least 200 boats were destroyed, the Red Cross federation said.

The social welfare ministry among other government agencies has reported
damage to 300 schools and 2,800 houses, it said.

"Water supplies have been contaminated and the threat of water-borne
diseases remains high," it said in a statement.

The updated death toll marked a significant increase from last Friday's
assessment by the United Nations Children's Fund (UNICEF), which reported
from Geneva that more than 140 people were dead or missing.

UNICEF had also stated that 18,000 people were left homeless by the storm,
which whipped across the Bay of Bengal and struck mainly at four townships
on May 19.

The UN agency said Myanmar had made a surprise plea for international
assistance, asking for 200 tonnes of rice, 4,000 tarpaulin sheets for
temporary shelters, medical supplies, rain water collection tanks and
18,000 blankets and sets of clothes.

UNICEF has already begun relief missions to the area.

"We have dispatched a series of relief supplies, particularly drugs to
prevent cholera, malaria and diarrhea for a population of 20,000 people,"
UNICEF information officer Jason Rush said.

About 3,000 corrugated iron roofing sheets were also distributed to health
centres, schools, and homes, he added.

At least 84 ships or fishing boats were lost at sea leading to an unknown
number of casualties.

"Information is still a bit hard to come by," Rush said.

Military-run Myanmar is known for under-reporting natural disasters or
accidents such as ferry sinkings and fires and only rarely seeks foreign
help.

The junta broke its silence on the disaster a full 10 days after the
storm, and while it admitted in state media that people were killed it did
not report specific casualty figures.

Tropical storms routinely lash Rakhine state -- a key fishing area --
during the monsoon season, which begins in May and can last for several
months.

The worst storm on recent record there was a 1968 cyclone which killed
1,037 people and destroyed a quarter-million homes, according to the
Japan-based Asian Disaster Reduction Center.


ON THE BORDER
_____________________________________

June 3, The Dallas Morning News
Burmese orphans aided by ministry - Rena Pederson

Chiang Mai: Jim Jacobson was exhausted. He had stayed through the night at
a Chiang Mai hospital, helping a little girl who'd had surgery to fix a
foot twisted by polio.

"She was in a lot of pain," he said. "Poor kid did not understand how to
work the button to insert the pain relievers into her I.V. She's doing
better this morning. ... And she should be able to walk in about seven
weeks."

Jacobson, who's 41, said he "felt like 71" after spending most of the week
at the hospital, keeping watch over the girl because she had no family to
help her. She is one of thousands of children orphaned by the violence in
neighboring Myanmar, also known as Burma, one of the harshest
dictatorships in the world.

Jacobson heads up a U.S.-based missionary group, Christian Freedom
International, that is trying to call attention to the orphans' dilemma.

"Burma exports two things," he said with more than a trace of frustration.
"Drugs and orphans."

By some estimates, there are 1 million Burmese refugees, including
thousands of orphaned children, hiding in Thailand. Victims of Myanmar's
brutal military junta, they are trapped in a bureaucratic never-never
land: They can't go home because they would risk repercussions from the
military. They can't find work in Thailand because they don't have proper
identification papers. They are, essentially, stateless.

The lack of papers means the children cannot be adopted. Without help,
advocates say, many of the youngsters are doomed to wind up as street
prostitutes, tiny cogs in the huge underground sex industry of Bangkok.

The children could be appealing candidates for adoption, in a world where
childless couples often must wait years to adopt. But for now, the orphans
of Myanmar are not on anyone's list.

That's where Jacobson comes in. A former White House policy analyst for
President Reagan and the first President Bush, he has been using his
political skills since 1996 to bring Christianity to troubled spots around
the world. He founded CFI, "a nonprofit, nonpartisan Christian human
rights organization" financed by small donations from churches and private
foundations. The group's mission, he said, is to go places and do things
that others may shy from.

Christian Freedom International has taken Bibles into China, despite
prohibitions against doing so. It is sending backpack medical teams into
Myanmar, despite threats from the military dictatorship there.

The group is part of a new breed of action-oriented Christian outreach
organizations working in the region. Another is the Free Burma Rangers.
It's run by Dave Eubank, a former Army special forces officer who slips
across the border into Myanmar with teams of medics.

Think of Bruce Willis with a Bible and you've got Burma Free Rangers.

Jacobson is more like Jimmy Stewart with a Bible.

Christian Freedom International does not overtly proselytize or evangelize
in Thailand, it simply tries to help. Jacobson has helped build churches
and schools in the sprawling refuge camps. One camp, Mae La, has grown to
more than 50,000 people in the last decade. As far as the eye can see, its
bamboo huts wrap around the Thai hills. Generally, the huts are sparse but
neat. But there is little to do and nowhere to go. Thai soldiers guard the
entrances.

Jacobson has brought delegations of U.S. congressional staffers to Mae La
and other camps so they could see firsthand the cruel limbo the refugees
are in.

"This is not a partisan issue, it is a humanitarian crisis," he said. "I
feel certain that we could find hundreds of churches in the United States
that would like to help these children and give them homes _ if only we
could get through the red tape."

So far, observers say, the United Nations has dragged its feet on
addressing the Burmese orphan problem. And the Thai government hasn't been
overly helpful, either.

Which means a solution may have to come from Washington.

According to the U.S. Committee for Refugees, a nonprofit advocacy group
for "uprooted people" worldwide, the most expedient path would be for the
U.S. government to expand the number of Myanmar refugees granted political
asylum _ and include a substantial number of the orphans.

That option makes sense, many say, because the United States has not
accepted as many political refugees from around the world since 9-11 and
could perhaps afford to take more on. The Burmese refugees could make good
candidates. Many of those who have fled to Thailand speak English and are
converted Christians, so they probably wouldn't have as much difficulty as
some other foreigners assimilating into American communities and finding
local mentors.

Congress also could approve a bilateral agreement with Thailand addressing
the orphan issue. Or, Congress could update its regulations on what
constitutes a foreign orphan eligible for adoption, making it easier for
the Burmese children to qualify.

"If we wanted to show that our country would like to reach out to these
kids, it could be done. And it would be good for the U.S. image," said
Michael McMahon, president of the Gladney Center for Adoption in Fort
Worth. "This is a problem that could be solved. It could be a win-win."

Similar problems have delayed the adoptions of children in the aftermath
of wars in other zones, from Cambodia to Romania, Mahon said, but that's
all the more reason to create a better system.

"It could happen," said Veronika Martin, of the U.S Committee for Refugees.

"If the U.S. wanted to prioritize the Burmese refugee situation and if the
U.S. would pressure Thailand to speed up the process, it could happen."

In the meantime, Jacobson is doing what he can on the scene, rebuilding a
hospital that was burned, providing pigs for an orphanage to raise,
looking for a backdoor way around the red tape to get homes for the
orphans.

"We are not waiting for a political solution," he said. "I am afraid I'll
get old and die before that happens."


BUSINESS
______________________________________

June 3, Japan Economic Newswire
Myanmar to import $250 mil. worth of fuel from Malaysia

Yangon: Myanmar will import $250 million worth of gasoline and diesel fuel
from Malaysia's state-run oil company Petronas this year to meet growing
domestic demand, a local newspaper reported Thursday.

'In the last fiscal year (2003-2004) we imported $200 million in fuel and
we will increase it to $250 million in the current fiscal year
(2004-2005). We will buy it from Petronas,' the deputy director of the
Energy Ministry, Thein Lwin, was quoted as saying in the weekly '7-Day
News.'

The report said the consumption of gasoline in Myanmar has increased to
440,280 kiloliters from 209,610 kl a decade ago, while the consumption of
diesel fuel almost tripled to 1,510,650 kl from 504,270 liters during the
same period.

Thein Lwin did not say if last fiscal year's imports were all from
Petronas, but official sources said Petronas is the only company selling
fuels to Myanmar in recent years.

Gasoline has been sold under a rationing system in Myanmar since the early
1980s, with each registered car allowed 9 liters of fuel a day at a
subsidized price of 36 kyat (about 5 cents) a liter from state-run filling
stations that are assigned according to the address of the car's
registered owner.

The black-market price for gasoline is about eight times the subsidized
price.

_____________________________________

June 3, The Times of India
Dhaka Clears Passage For Myanmar Gas Pipeline - Sanjay Dutta

New Delhi: Dhaka on Tuesday cleared in principle a pipeline through its
territory for transporting New Delhi's share of gas from Myanmar which
could change India's energy map and its ties with Bangladesh.

The breakthrough came on the back of oil minister Mani Shankar Aiyar
offering more diesel to Bangladesh foreign minister Morshed Khan for
bridging a 2.3 million tonne shortfall in petroproducts.

Khan said his government would have no objection if the pipeline is
constructed on "a mutually beneficial term", even though he ruled out
export of gas from Bangladesh's Bibiyana fields as per US energy major
Unocal's plan.

A pipeline from Myanmar through Bangladesh territory would help unlock the
gas trapped in ONGC's fields in Tripura.

ONGC has capped production at 10 lakh cubic metres of gas daily against a
capacity of 45 lakh cubic metres due to poor local demand and absence of a
cost-effective way to feed the gas into the national pipeline network.

But the jury could still be out on the pipeline as Khan's statement is a
hint of Dhaka's resolve to extract its pound of flesh by way of a transit
fee.

This will push up the cost of the Myanmar gas. But there's another opinion
that says unlocking of the Tripura gas could make up for this
disadvantage.

A Bangladesh construction company, Mohona Holding Ltd, had evinced
interest in building a pipeline for evacuating Tripura gas, saying it
could also be used by India in the eventuality of gas imports from the
Myanmar fields where ONGC and GAIL have stakes.
The two Myanmar oil and gas fields in which ONGC and GAIL have equity are
estimated to have over six trillion cubic feet of gas reserves.

Khan, however, did not commit to Aiyar's offer of 60,000 tonnes of diesel
a month from next year, double the current exports.

_____________________________________

June 3, Xinhua News Service
3 Thai-involved Myanmar industrial zone projects to start sooner

Yangon: Three Thai-involved Myanmar industrial zone projects are due to
start sooner this year, the local Myanmar Times reported in its latest
issue.

The projects are part of the economic cooperation strategy (ECS) program
agreed upon at a summit of Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar and Thailand held in
Myanmar's ancient city of Bagan last November.

The three industrial zones opposite to Thailand, namely Myawaddy and
Hpa-an in southeastern Kayin state and Mawlamyine in southern Mon state,
will take two years to complete, the Ministry of Industry-1 was quoted as
saying.

The three industrial zone projects will be implemented in cooperation with
the Industrial Estate Authority of Thailand, the report said, adding that
Thai investors are interested in making products from the zones for the
Chinese and Indian markets.

Under the Myanmar-Thai cooperation, Thai factories will be moved to the
zones and it is expected that both countries will be benefited from the
establishment economically and socially.

Arrangements are also being made to set up more economic development zones
in Myanmar's Tachilek, Kengtung, Dawei, Myeik and Kawthoung, covered by
the ECS program.

The ECS provides for cooperation in five strategic areas covering
agriculture, industry, trade and investment, transport, tourism and human
resources development.

The ECS program is aimed at fully harnessing the huge economic potential
of the four countries to promote spontaneous and sustainable economic
development by transferring their border areas into zones of durable peace
and stability as well as economic growth.


REGIONAL
_____________________________________

June 3, Agence France Presse
Thailand to avoid controversy when Myanmar PM visits Friday

Bangkok: Thailand will spare Myanmar Prime Minister General Khin Nyunt the
discomfort of explaining his country's much-criticised approach to
democratic reform when he visits the kingdom Friday, a government
spokesman said.

Jakrapob Penkair said the general will meet with his Thai counterpart
Thaksin Shinawatra for bilateral talks on broad cooperation issues
including border ties, migrant labour and infrastructure development.

Thai hosts will not press Khin Nyunt on his first official visit to
Thailand since becoming premier last August with queries about the
continued detention of democracy icon Aung San Suu Kyi or the junta's
ongoing national convention to help draft a new constitution.

"We will not raise these topics but we are ready to talk if Myanmar
mentions them," spokesman Jakrapob Penkair told AFP Thursday.

When asked specifically if Thaksin would seek comment on Aung San Suu Kyi,
who remains under house arrest one year after her detention last May 30,
he said "No, we won't raise the issue."

Thailand had positioned itself as a key facilitator by hosting
international talks on prospects for democracy in Myanmar, but Yangon
backed out of the latest round of the "Bangkok Process" talks planned for
late April.

"The Bangkok Process is part of the national convention, so we will not
raise it in discussions," Jakrapob said.

Shortly after becoming premier last August Khin Nyunt announced a
seven-step "roadmap to democracy" billed as kicking off with the
convention and culminating with "free and fair" elections at an
unspecified date.

The convention, which began May 17 without the participation of the
democratic opposition, has been dismissed as a sham by the United States,
the United Nations and human rights groups.

Regional rights monitor Forum Asia on Thursday urged Thailand not to
soften its stance on Myanmar during Khin Nyunt's trip.

"During the visit of General Khin Nyunt on 4 June 2004, Thailand should
advocate for genuine reforms and the immediate release of Aung San Suu Kyi
and other political prisoners," Forum Asia said in a statement.

"ASEAN should be prepared to cease its defense of the Burmese regime until
it is willing to deliver on its promises of reform."

Khin Nyunt is undertaking a traditional introductory tour by new leaders
of the 10-member Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN).

He visited Malaysia on Tuesday, where senior officials said he "gave a
detailed report on the reconciliation process and constitutional
convention" to his host, Prime Minister Abdullah Ahmad Badawi.

He also met briefly there with the UN special envoy to Yangon, Razali
Ismail, who helped broker secret talks between the generals and Aung San
Suu Kyi in 2000 but which have since collapsed.

_____________________________________

June 3, Xinhua News Service
Myanmar PM to visit Thailand for enhancing bilateral ties

Yangon: Myanmar Prime Minister General Khin Nyunt will pay a working visit
to Thailand on Friday, aimed at enhancing the bilateral relations between
the two countries, according to an official announcement here Thursday.

Khin Nyunt's one-day visit is part of his regional tour to member
countries of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN).

Khin Nyunt is expected to discuss with his Thai counterpart Thaksin
Shinawatra on a range of bilateral issues including economic cooperation.

In November last year, Thaksin visited Myanmar's Bagan for a summit
meeting of Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar and Thailand on an economic cooperation
strategy, during which the two countries signed a bilateral production
sharing contract on natural gas exploration by Thailand in two offshore
areas in Myanmar.

Also under the Myanmar-Thai economic cooperation covered by the
four-country strategy, some Thai-involved special industrial zones are
being set up in Myanmar's border areas such as Myawaddy, Pha-An and
Mawlamyine opposite to Thailand.

In recent years, Myanmar-Thailand bilateral trade has witnessed a growth,
amounting to 1.5 billion US dollars in 2003, the highest among Myanmar's
bilateral trade with other ASEAN members, according to official
statistics.

Meanwhile, Thailand's investment in Myanmar reached 1.29 billion dollars
in 49 projects as of the end of March 2003, ranking the third after
Singapore and Britain.


INTERNATIONAL
_____________________________________

June 3, Bloomberg
Myanmar's Military Is `Impervious' to Criticism, Kelly Says

Myanmar's junta is ``impervious'' to criticism and sanctions aimed at
persuading it to return the country to democracy, said James Kelly, the
U.S. assistant secretary of state for East Asia and Pacific Affairs.

Myanmar ``lives in its poverty and isolation,'' Kelly told a Congressional
committee yesterday in Washington, according to a transcript. ``The
military prospers, even as the people do very badly in a country that by
every logic should be one of the leaders of the region.''

The U.S. is ``very troubled'' at events in Myanmar where the ruling junta
began a constitutional convention last month without the opposition
National League for Democracy, Kelly said. The party refused to join
because its leader Aung San Suu Kyi remains under house arrest a year
after being detained.

The military has ruled Myanmar for 42 years. The country of 42 million
people formerly known as Burma has been under international sanctions
since the military nullified elections the National League won in 1990.
President George W. Bush last month extended U.S. sanctions that include
freezing the assets of Myanmar's leaders and banning the import of its
goods.

``We have just about every conceivable sanction that we could have enacted
in law and in regulation against any kind of economic activity,'' Kelly
said. ``This is a military government that seems remarkably impervious to
criticism from outside, and in fact sanctions from outside.''

Myanmar's Neighbors

Myanmar's fellow members in the 10-counrty Association of Southeast Asian
Nations, including Thailand and Malaysia, haven't joined the sanctions,
Kelly said.

``They have been optimistic that they will somehow socialize a kind of
changed, enhancement of democracy and an openness in Burma and, time after
time, have been disappointed,'' he said.

The U.S. won't recognize any constitution or government emerging from the
convention unless Suu Kyi is released, Kelly said in answer to a question
during his testimony.

United Nations Secretary General Kofi Annan has joined the international
criticism of Myanmar's convention. The meeting must be all-inclusive and
all delegates must be able to express their views without sanction, Annan
said last month.

Myanmar's government has said the National League's demands for taking
part in the talks were ``unreasonable,'' Agence France- Presse reported
last month.

The government said 1,076 delegates representing political parties and
ethnic groups attended the convention's May 17 opening at a complex about
40 kilometers (25 miles) north of Yangon, AFP reported.

Myanmar's last held a constitutional convention in 1993. The talks
continued with interruptions until 1995 when the National League withdrew
saying the process was undemocratic.


OPINION/OTHER
_____________________________________

June 2, Mizzima News
Burmese Junta Gradually losing the Regional Support - Nyo Ohn Myint

Burma’s military junta has launched its first step on its self-proclaimed
political roadmap to democracy with the National Convention intended to
draft a new national constitution.

In its third week, the junta has received only negative responses from
within and outside the country. Even its long-term sympathizers, including
Thailand, China and ASEAN countries, have expressed anxiety concerning the
junta’s game plan.

Without participation of Aung San Suu Kyi-led National League for
Democracy (NLD) in the Junta's National Convention, regional players feel
that this is not a game but a ‘one man show’. This does not satisfy their
expectations. Moreover, the Burmese junta’s actions not only challenge the
regional players, but insult their willingness to providing understanding.

The region seems to be more interested in promoting corporations in
regional development than being ideologically upfront. The ASEAN countries
try not to intervene in their members’ internal conflicts as much as
possible. However, the regional players, with a degree of discomfort, have
urged the junta to reconcile with the NLD after its leader, Daw Aung San
Suu Kyi, colleagues and followers were brutally attacked near Depayin,
north of Rangoon, on 30 May 2003. Despite their urgings, the junta has
refused to compromise with the NLD and other ethnic political parties on
their demands for basic principles democratic principles to be respected
in the National Convention and has recklessly pushed away advice of its
people and the regional players.

Unlike the United States and other Western countries, the ASEAN and
regional super powers, China and India, have taken a flexible approach
towards the junta over the past decade. However, their approaches,
including the introduction of ‘constructive engagement’, have failed to
encourage change in the junta’s unwise policies or progress towards
political reconciliation.

Differences can be discerned between the various ASEAN members' approaches
towards the Burmese junta that reflect their various national interests.
Singapore shows more support for the junta’s policies than Thailand as
Thailand’s democratic principles do not allow them to close their eyes to
the junta’s unacceptable methods of government. However, all ASEAN members
share the common view that Burma should not become a burden to ASEAN in
2006 when Burma is scheduled to chair ASEAN. And the junta’s current plans
for political transition do not have the capacity built into them to meet
ASEAN’s minimum expectations for Burma to be an acceptable chair. Thus,
ASEAN is now in a position where it has to reconsider their stance towards
the junta.

Indeed, the political weather of the region does not favor the junta,
particularly after the Congress Party in India has just regained power
through a coalition government in India’s recent elections. That Burma as
an agenda item has been left out of recent foreign policy statements of
the new government indicates that the Indian government could be reviewing
the previous government’s ties with the junta. Reading this diplomatic
language also indicates a negative outcome for the junta.

Additionally, China might reconsider its stance towards the junta if it
cannot cater for Chinese’s national and commercial interests in the
country that depend on progress in national reconciliation and genuine
political development. China’s main concern remains the resolution of the
current political instability inside Burma . The Burmese democratic forces
have suggested that China consider employ the Cambodia model of
withdrawing its support the infamous junta.

More importantly, regional countries seem to be not buying the junta’s
notion of anti-colonialism contained in its latest rhetorical challenges
to the United States and United Kingdom. They clearly see that Burma’s
political crisis today is not a clash between a pro-Western opposition and
nationalist military junta. Instead they understand this crisis as being
between nationalist democratic parties representing Burmese citizens and
the illegitimate handful of power holding generals. However, the generals’
recent decisions and statements have confused the regional players
bringing uncertainty as to their next step of engagement. The regional
players have differently interpreted the junta's mixed messages, given out
at the regional Burma forum, the Bangkok Process last December.

The patience of regional countries has almost expired after junta’s
one-sided political forum. There may be a few excuses given by the junta
for excluding the NLD and the main ethnic opposition parties. But it is
unlikely to convince regional players that their roadmap is leading down a
positive path. The junta is not able to convince the rest of the citizens
that they are capable of providing basic needs in public utilities or halt
uncontrollable basic food prices. It will be very surprising if the
regional players can continue to listen to the same old story that the
junta’s “roadmap to democracy” is working.

(The author is a leader of Foreign Affairs Committee of the National
League for Democracy – Liberated Area.)

______________________________________

June 3, Irrawaddy
Burma’s Road Map: The End of Troubles for Thailand? - Aung Naing Oo

Burmese Prime Minister Gen Khin Nyunt will visit Thailand tomorrow. While
in Bangkok, he will meet his Thai counterpart Thaksin Shinawatra and brief
him on the progress of the ‘road map for democracy,’ just as he is
believed to have done in Malaysia earlier in the week.

The road map’s first step, the National Convention, tasked with drafting a
new constitution—is underway at a small village in Rangoon’s outskirts.
And it will continue forward, despite widespread opposition and the
exclusion of key national stakeholders such as opposition leader Aung San
Suu Kyi.

But what does success for the junta mean for Thailand? Will it end
Thailand’s past troubled relationship with the Burmese generals?

Unlikely. Thailand and several members of the Association of Southeast
Asian Nations, or Asean, has long abetted the Burmese junta in its pursuit
of a constitution. It continually urged the junta to finish the
constitution following the suspension of the National Convention in 1996.
When the Burmese junta announced the seven-point road map in August last
year, Thailand was one of the very few countries that expressed support
for the regime.

Despite earlier statements regarding the exclusion of Suu Kyi from the
reconciliation process, Thailand will give its tacit, if not open, backing
to the junta. At least, as a truly diplomatic nation, Thailand will
refrain from criticizing the junta, especially for its continued detention
and exclusion of Suu Kyi from the road map process.

In turn, Burma’s Prime Minister will praise Thaksin for his unwavering
support for the junta and his role as the peace facilitator between the
Karen National Union and the junta. Khin Nyunt will ask for continued Thai
support of the regime with regard to the roadmap, the upcoming Asean
summit in Indonesia in July and the Asia-Europe Meeting, or ASEM, meeting
to be held in October in Vietnam.

Over the past decade, Thailand has had problems with Burma over border
disputes, the more than 100,000 Burmese refugees languishing Thai refugee
camps (not to mention the continued presence of anti-Rangoon groups on
Thai soil), and drug smuggling into Thailand by Burma’s Wa and other
ethnic groups.

Thai-Burma relations have improved since Thaksin took office three years
ago, and will likely continue to do so as long as he is in office. But
unresolved bilateral issues remain.

According to the constitution currently being debated at the National
Convention, the men in uniform will remain in power—just as they’ve done
for the past 40-plus years. Thailand won’t forget the ordeal it has had to
go through dealing with the generals in Rangoon during this time.

Also, mutual mistrust runs deep. The generals, usually tough negotiators
with the Thais, have softened their stance against Thailand and lures
influential Thai businessmen with lucrative business deals in Burma. Once
the junta gets what it wants from the road map, it will revert to its true
character—that of the tough neighbor.

Another outstanding issue is the Karen ceasefire negotiations with
Rangoon. It won’t happen unless the junta provides a concrete promise of
safety for refugees, who Thailand hopes to repatriate to Burma. Even if
the Karen sign a truce with the junta before the end of the year,
repatriation will not be easy.

Burmese opposition groups, in Thailand for years with no place else to go,
will continue to disrupt Thailand’s relationship with Burma.

And what will the two sides do about the Wa and other ethnic groups who
are responsible for the influx of illicit drugs? They will continue to
enjoy freedom and even the junta’s blessing to remain in the business—in
return for endorsing the regime’s road map. Despite Thailand’s efforts to
eradicate drug use, the flow of heroin and methamphetamine from Burma is
unlikely to stop in the future.

Finally, as the junta has excluded all major political and ethnic
stakeholders from the road map process, the conflict in Burma will not
end. And the junta will face mountains of resistance implementing the
outcome of the road map. Politically strong ethnic groups such as the
Karen and the Mon will continue to demand greater autonomy from Rangoon.
In these resilient struggles, Thailand will feel the spillover effects it
has experienced for more than 40 years since Gen Ne Win seized power from
the democratically elected government of U Nu in 1962.

It is understandable that Thailand wants to enjoy better relations with
its unpredictable neighbor. But Thailand should also bear in mind what the
Burmese generals can unleash in their determination to remain in power.

Aung Naing Oo is a research associate with Washington-based The Burma Fund.