BurmaNet News, September 21, 2004

[Editor]

September 21, 2004, Issue # 2563

“The democratic hopes we see growing in the Middle East are growing
everywhere. In the words of the Burmese democracy advocate Aung San Suu
Kyi, We do not accept the notion that democracy is a Western value. To the
contrary, democracy simply means good government rooted in responsibility,
transparency and accountability.”

-United States President George W. Bush in his address to the United
Nations General Assembly, September 21, 2004

INSIDE BURMA
AFP: Myanmar's new FM due in UN for general assembly: sources
Irrawaddy: KNPP to talk with Rangoon
Kyodo: Myanmar to open liaison offices to fight human trafficking

BUSINESS
AP: Myanmar bans poultry imports from Malaysia

REGIONAL
Kyodo: ASEAN has better way to deal with Myanmar, Indonesian envoy says

INTERNATIONAL
AFP: Bill introduced in US Senate, seeking UN action on Myanmar
mtvnews.com: U2, Avril, Coldplay, Pearl Jam do it For the Lady
Kyodo: EU again urges Myanmar to improve human rights record

OPINION / OTHER
National Review: Saving Burma: A humanitarian crisis in southeast Asia
Bangkok Post: Junta hardliners strengthen their grip on reins of power

______________________________________
INSIDE BURMA

September 21, Agence France Presse
Myanmar's new FM due in UN for general assembly: sources

Yangon: Myanmar's new foreign minister will attend the United Nations
annual debate after being promoted in a weekend cabinet reshuffle that
strengthened the position of hardliners, a source close to the ministry
said Tuesday.

Major General Nyan Win, a political novice, will join a delegation already
in New York after speculation he may not show as the military regime faces
criticism over the continued detention of opposition leader Aung San Suu
Kyi.

He will be joined at the two-week meeting of world leaders by the Labour
Minister Tin Win, a former ambassador to the United States and experienced
in overseas dealings for the internationally isolated junta.

The general assembly meeting starts Tuesday but it was not clear when he
would arrive in New York.

"Nyan Win will be attending the UN General Assembly in the company of Tin
Win," the source said.

However, it remained unclear if he would attend a summit next month of
European and Asian nations next month that had been thrown into jeopardy
over the presence of Myanmar.

After months of disputes, the EU had agreed to attend the Asia-Europe
(ASEM) meeting in Hanoi on October 8-9 but only if Myanmar sent a
low-level delegation.

It had been expected to be headed by the former foreign minister Win Aung
but state media in Myanmar announced on Saturday that he and two other
ministers had been "permitted to retire".

The military has run Myanmar since a 1962 coup. The National League for
Democracy (NLD) headed by Aung San Suu Kyi won elections in 1990 by a
landslide but has never been allowed to rule.

She was put under her third period of house arrest after a violent clash
between her supporters and a pro-junta mob in May 2003, which resulted in
tougher international sanctions.

____________________________________

September 21, Irrawaddy
KNPP to talk with Rangoon - Nandar Chann

The Karenni National Progressive Party, or KNPP, plans to talk with the
Burmese government in Tachilek, a border town that abuts the Thai town of
Mae Sai, according to a KNPP leader. The Karenni proposal was made through
a peace advocacy group on September 4.

“The KNPP is now ready to talk,” said Raymond Htoo, general-secretary of
the organization. “The Burmese government told us through a peace advocacy
group that they will reply to us sometime after the 20th of this month.”

Raymond Htoo explained that the KNPP proposed to meet with the regime in
Tachilek. According to a source close to the KNPP, Rangoon insists that
the talks include the 16 points made at the 1995 ceasefire.

The KNPP claims that after three months, the 1995 ceasefire failed because
the regime broke the 16 points of the agreement, including the most
important condition that there was further increase in the number of
Burmese troops in Karenni State.

Rangoon wants Hte Bu Peh, chairman of the KNPP who was one of the
participants in 1995 ceasefire talks, to attend the new round, according
to the source close to the KNPP.

In late March, Rangoon refused to act on a letter from the KNPP as it did
not like the wording: “to meet government to government”.

Late last year, the Loikaw-based Kayah State Peace Advocacy Group
approached the KNPP with regard to talking with the Burmese government.

_____________________________________

September 13, Kyodo News
Myanmar to open liaison offices to fight human trafficking

Yangon: Myanmar will open liaison offices in border towns adjoining
Thailand and China to help crack down on human trafficking, the
semiofficial Myanmar Times reported Monday.

The offices will be opened at two eastern border towns, Tachilek and
Myawaddy adjoining Thailand, and one northeastern town, Muse bordering
China's Yunnan Province, the weekly reported, quoting Police Brig. Gen.
Win Myaing.

''The offices would help strengthen cross-border cooperation against human
trafficking,'' the general was quoted as saying.

According to Home Ministry figures, 795 human traffickers were arrested in
412 cases between July 2002 and July 2004, in which 335 offenders were
imprisoned, the report said.

Since 2001, authorities have publicized the human-trafficking issue to
more than 700,000 people living in border areas and have prevented about
16,000 from leaving the country illegally, the weekly paper said.

_____________________________________
BUSINESS

September 21, Associated Press
Myanmar bans poultry imports from Malaysia

Yangon: Myanmar has imposed a temporary ban on poultry imports from
Malaysia following the discovery of the bird flu virus there last month, a
livestock official said Tuesday.

Than Tun, director of Livestock Breeding and Veterinary Department, told
the Associated Press that poultry imports from India, Germany and France
are still allowed but that an earlier ban on bird imports from Thailand
and Indonesia stands.

A ban on poultry imports from Malaysia was imposed "as soon as we heard
the news that bird flu was discovered there," he said.

Authorities in Malaysia discovered bird flu Aug. 17 in fighting cocks
smuggled from Thailand. The deadly H5N1 strain of the disease has killed
28 people in Thailand in Vietnam, but Malaysia has so far escaped human
infections in the two outbreaks of the disease this year.

The disease has devastated the poultry industry in several Asian
countries, leaving tens of million of chickens dead or slaughtered.
Myanmar's poultry stock was unaffected.

Than Tun said livestock breeding companies are importing hatching eggs
only from Germany.

"We will continue to monitor the birds at poultry farms and have alerted
farmers to report to us if there is unusual disease or increase in
mortality among the chickens," he said.

_____________________________________
REGIONAL

September 20, Kyodo News
ASEAN has better way to deal with Myanmar, Indonesian envoy says

Yangon: Indonesia's special envoy to Myanmar said ASEAN has a better
method of approaching junta-ruled Myanmar, than placing sanctions on the
country, the Burmese service section of Washington-based Radio Free Asia
reported Wednesday.

Indonesia is current chairman of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations.

''Well, you know that the position of me and Indonesia -- not only
Indonesia but the entire ASEAN -- we don't believe that sanctions are very
effective and, especially in a country like Myanmar, sanctions can even
seriously hurt the livelihood of the ordinary people, envoy Ali Alatas was
quoted by the radio as saying.

Alatas's comments came a day after the foreign ministers of European Union
member countries decided in Brussels to tighten EU sanctions against
Myanmar unless Yangon improves its human rights situation before an
Asia-Europe summit set for Hanoi on Oct. 8-9.

The punitive measures under consideration include a ban on visas for
senior Myanmar officials and their families and prohibition of loans to
companies based in EU member countries but owned by Myanmar concerns.

''The approach of ASEAN is to quietly talk to Myanmar's government,
talking to them, trying to persuade them, trying to put them...trying to
tell them what the consequences are of failure to resolve the situation
and I think this is the better way,'' Alatas said.

When asked about the success of his ''quietly talking'' approach, Alatas
replied, ''Well, there has been progress, but rather slow and not quite
according to what we have hoped for.''

He added, however, there has been progress such as reconvening a national
constitutional convention.

''We hope in this gradual way democracy will arrive in Myanmar eventually.
But when we talk about democracy we have to note that there will be
different versions of democracy such as a Myanmar version of democracy,
Thailand's democracy, Indonesia's democracy, Malaysia's democracy,'' he
said.

Alatas visited Myanmar in September last year and urged the junta to
release opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi ahead of last year's ASEAN
summit in Bali, but that mission failed and the junta still holds Suu Kyi
under house arrest, despite global calls for her freedom.

_____________________________________
INTERNATIONAL

September 20, Agence France Presse
Bill introduced in US Senate, seeking UN action on Myanmar

Washington: A resolution seeking UN Security Council action against
Myanmar was introduced Monday in the US Senate, accusing the Southeast
Asian state's military rulers of brutally repressing ethnic minorities and
using rape as a weapon of war.

Senator Mitch McConnell, who introduced the bill, said the Security
Council should "immediately consider and take appropriate actions to
respond to the growing threats" posed by the military junta to the
Southeast Asian region.

The junta has come under constant criticism from the United States and
other Western powers for human right abuses, including the detention of
democracy icon Aung San Suu Kyi and clampdown of her National League for
Democracy (NLD).

"Today, there is no question that Burma's myriad problems are no longer
the internal affair of a handful of psychopathic generals in Rangoon,"
McConnell told the Senate. Burma is the previous name of Myanmar.

McConnell alleged that unchecked spread of HIV/AIDS fuelled by the junta's
use of rape as a weapon of war, illicit production and trafficking in
narcotics, brutal crackdowns on ethnic minorities and weapons purchases
from nuclear-armed North Korea were all posing a serious threat to the
region.

He pointed to alleged junta links to drug and human smuggling rackets and
said they were threatening the "lives of Asian youth and families" and
creating "significant populations of internally displaced persons and
refugees.

"If the Security Council takes up the matter of Burma, significant strides
will be made toward democracy and justice in that country," he said.

Six other senators are backing the resolution, which is likely to be
debated and voted on at a future date.

Last May, the NLD sought Security Council intervention in Myanmar, which
has been run by the military since a 1962 coup.

The NLD won overwhelmingly in Myanmar's 1990 elections, considered free
and fair by the international community, but was not allowed to govern.

McConnell urged UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan as well as the United
States and Britain -- permanent members of the Security Council -- to heed
the NLD's call.

Myanmar launched a national political convention earlier this year which
it billed as the first step in its "road map" to democracy but the process
has been rejected as a sham by the international community, including UN
Secretary-General Kofi Annan.

_____________________________________

September 21, mtvnews.com
U2, Avril, Coldplay, Pearl Jam do it For the Lady – Joe D’Angelo

U2, Avril Lavigne, R.E.M. and Pearl Jam are among the artists donating
tracks to a benefit album for Aung San Suu Kyi, an imprisoned Burmese
humanitarian known to some as "Asia's Nelson Mandela."

For the Lady: Dedicated to Freeing Aung San Suu Kyi and the Courageous
People of Burma, due October 26, features previously released tunes by
Lavigne, Coldplay, Bright Eyes and Travis, while Pearl Jam, R.E.M., Damien
Rice and Better Than Ezra contribute live cuts unavailable anywhere else.
Also exclusive to the album is "Let Freedom Ring," a studio track by
Audioslave guitarist Tom Morello's solo incarnation, the Nightwatchman.

U2 dedicated their contribution, "Walk On," to Aung San Suu Kyi on All
That You Can't Leave Behind, the album on which it first appeared. The
double album's final track, "Tempest of Blood," was written by a jailed
student activist for democracy in Burma (which is also known as Myanmar).

Aung San Suu Kyi is the world's only imprisoned Nobel Peace Prize
recipient. For her efforts to promote democracy and human rights in Burma,
she has garnered the support of President Bill Clinton, Senator John
McCain, former Secretary of State Madeline Albright, Secretary of State
Colin Powell and Desmond Tutu, among others. For the past 14 years, she
has been under house arrest by Burma's repressive junta.

Proceeds from the sale of the album will benefit the nonprofit
organization U.S. Campaign for Burma.

For more information, including the full track listing, visit:
http://www.mtv.com/news/articles/1491225/20040920/u2.jhtml?headlines=true

_____________________________________

September 20, Kyodo News
EU again urges Myanmar to improve human rights record

Brussels: Foreign ministers of European Union member countries decided
Monday to tighten the EU's sanctions against Myanmar unless Yangon
improves its human rights situation before an Asia-Europe summit in Hanoi
on Oct. 8-9.

The punitive measures under consideration include a ban on visas for
senior Myanmar officials and their families and the prohibition of loans
to companies based in EU member countries but owned by Myanmar concerns.

EU officials have said that the European Union has allowed Myanmar to take
part in the summit on condition that Yangon's junta does not send Prime
Minister Gen. Khin Nyunt but a lower-level official such as its foreign
minister.

EU foreign ministers agreed earlier this month to accept Myanmar as a
participant in the summit while deciding to slap the fresh sanctions on
Myanmar to press for democratization.

They decided to impose the new sanctions Oct. 8, demanding democratization
and the release from continued confinement of pro-democracy icon Aung San
Suu Kyi.

The Asia-Europe Meeting summit had been on the brink of being called off
due to an impasse between the EU and the 10-member Association of
Southeast Asian Nations over Myanmar's participation at the forum.

_____________________________________
OPINION / OTHER

September 20, National Review
Saving Burma: A humanitarian crisis in southeast Asia - Doug Bandow

Humanitarian crises encircle the globe. Violent resistance afflicts Iraq.
Mass death from starvation and war threatens Sudan. Millions have died in
other conflicts across Africa. So no one has much time for Burma.

But if only the right government officials removed some wrong bureaucratic
barriers, 1,000 Burmese children could be saved. Orphaned in their
government's war on its own people, they could trade helpless dependence
in crowded refugee camps in Thailand for positive futures with loving
families in America.

Burma, now called Myanmar by the military regime that has held power there
for more than four decades, is among the world's poorest and most
oppressed countries. The junta brutally crushed pro-democracy protests in
1988 but foolishly called an election two years later. The result was
victory by the National League for Democracy, led by Aung San Suu Kyi,
daughter of General Aung San, a leading independence figure assassinated
in 1947.

The government put Suu Kyi under house arrest, suppressed her party,
loosed thugs upon democracy advocates, and closed the universities.
Despite periodic hope for a more moderate course in Rangoon, the
self-styled State Peace and Development Council always returns to
repression.

At the same time the government has pursued a brutal war against ethnic
groups seeking autonomy. At least a million people have been displaced
within eastern Burma. Another 200,000 live in refugee camps in surrounding
nations, the most heavily afflicted of which is Thailand. Hundreds of
thousands more live and work illegally outside the camps.

Refugees began flooding into Thailand 20 years ago after government forces
launched a sustained offensive. The primary victims are Karen and Karenni,
many Christians whose ancestors were converted by missionaries in the
mid-1800s. Today vast refugee camps sprawl across undulating green hills
north of Mae-sot, Thailand, generating a solid carpet of two-story bamboo
shacks.

A tenuous cease-fire now exists between Rangoon and members of the Karen
National Liberation Army. But many of the Karen and Karenni have known no
life other than as refugees in a war of extreme brutality. The
ill-disciplined Burmese forces draft civilians as porters and routinely
kill and rape villagers before destroying homes, clinics, and churches —
and then sowing land mines.

Unfortunately, a refugee's life inside Thailand is fragile. The choices
are illegal work, which risks deportation, or helpless idleness within the
camps.

Bangkok complains of the burden, despite outside assistance. And Thailand
has not signed the U.N. Convention on Refugees, leaving the latter with
precious few legal guarantees.

Indeed, the government of Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra, who has
business interests in Burma, desires to push the Karen and Karenni back
across the border. Unfortunately, neither safety nor peace await them
there. They can only sit nervously in the camps, vulnerable to
cross-border attacks from Burma and threatening political initiatives from
Bangkok.

The violent conflict has yielded thousands of children without parents.
Many are orphans; some have been separated from parents who have
disappeared and may be dead. A number have been abandoned — in this
culture, a common practice when a father or mother remarries.

About 1,000 are under the care of Christian Freedom International, which
conducts relief operations along the border, provides medical aid inside
war-torn Burma, and runs schools and orphanages in the Thai camps. CFI is
pushing to make these children eligible for adoption.

They are, however, stateless: not recognized as Burmese citizens, not Thai
nationals, and not certified by the office of the United Nations High
Commissioner of Refugees as persons of concern. Thus, they are stuck in
legal limbo — and in the camps.

Jim Jacobson, CFI's president, has taken the children's case to UNHCR
officials, the Thai government, and the U.S. embassy in Bangkok, but all
point accusing fingers at one another. The Thai ministry of the interior
claims to have no objection and blames the UNHCR. Yet in the past Thailand
has obstructed adoption efforts, perhaps fearing a new influx of refugees.

That isn't likely: Jeremy Woodrum of the U.S. Campaign for Burma notes
that the Karen and Karenni generally flee only as a last resort, despite
the abuses that they routinely suffer. The adoption of 1,000 orphans is
not likely to increase the refugee flow.

However, the UNHCR says it cannot certify those of uncertain legal status;
without U.N. sanction, the U.S. will not allow adoptions. But UNHCR says
it cannot move ahead without prior American agreement. The embassy says
the decision is for Washington to make. They just "kick it back and
forth," complains Woodrum.

And so the orphans languish. Complains Jacobson, a soft-spoken activist
who has worked both in the White House and on Capitol Hill: "Over the last
nine years I've observed some of these kids grow up into young adults."

Jacobson, long a Virginia resident who has moved to Thailand to better
oversee CFI's operations, flew back in mid-August to seek support on
Capitol Hill. Breaking down the bureaucratic barriers would open the way
for adoptions not only in America but in other nations — such as Great
Britain — that in the past have taken in victims of foreign oppression.

The orphans' cause crosses party lines. Rep. Frank Wolf (R., Va.) has led
the effort to eliminate adoption barriers. Also pushing for action are
Republicans Rep. Mark Souder (Ind.), Sen. Elizabeth Dole (N.C.), and Sen.
Sam Brownback (Kan.) and Democrats Rep. Joseph Crowley (N.Y.) and Sen. Jon
Corzine (N.J.).

Observes Jacobson: "We've got everyone from the right to the left. It's
crazy that we can't get something done." Yet so far Bush administration
officials have been strangely unhelpful.

The State Department remains mired in bureaucratic minutiae, while the
White House refuses to discuss the issue. In response to his request to
meet with an administration official "who could help break this
bureaucratic logjam," Jacobson received a form letter explaining that the
president was extremely busy. Rep. Wolf hosted a meeting with State
Department personnel in mid-September, but they were reluctant to adjust
their procedures and suggested that any babies admitted would have to be
placed in America's already badly over-burdened foster care system.

Immigration issues have become particularly controversial after September
11, but the case of 1,000 orphans in a war zone should be a no-brainer.
Many of these children have witnessed the destruction of their homes and
villages; today their futures remain bleak.

They deserve a better life. And generous Americans are willing to give
them one. Says Jacobson, "We are in touch with many American families
willing and able to adopt these kids." But bureaucrats and red tape stand
in the way.

America cannot right every wrong in the world. But Americans can aid some
individuals and families now at risk — including a few desperate children
languishing in Thai refugee camps.

Doug Bandow is a senior fellow at the Cato Institute and a former special
assistant to President Ronald Reagan.

_____________________________________

September 21, Bangkok Post
Junta hardliners strengthen their grip on reins of power - Larry Jagan

Burma's cabinet reshuffle at the weekend leaves Prime Minister Khin Nyunt
out in the cold as the leaders pull down the shutters to the outside world

Burma's hardliners have strengthened their control over the government and
signalled a major shift in policy towards the outside world. In a
significant shake-up of the cabinet, Burma's military leaders have axed
the foreign minister and deputy foreign minister and replaced them with
two little known military officers without any diplomatic experience.

"It is a clear snub to the UN and the West, who have been demanding
political changes and the immediate release of pro-democracy leader Aung
San Suu Kyi," said a Western diplomat based in Rangoon.

More importantly, the cabinet changes reflect the intention of the
country's top leader, Senior General Than Shwe, to shun the international
community and even rebuff Burma's Asian allies.

The appointment of two army men to look after foreign affairs, relatively
junior officers and with no international experience, underlines the
Burmese government's downgrading of the posts. It also means Burma's top
leader has opted for isolation rather than engagement with the region and
the rest of the world.

"Than Shwe is clearly pulling down the shutters to the outside world,"
said a Burmese businessman in Rangoon. "Burma's leaders have always been
quick to impose self-isolation when they do not want to deal with
problems."

The cabinet changes come just ahead of some major international meetings
at which Burma's human rights record and lack of progress towards
political reform will certainly come under scrutiny. In the next few
weeks, Burma's foreign minister is scheduled to attend the UN General
Assembly in New York, the meeting of Asia and European leaders, or Asem,
in Hanoi and the summit of Asean leaders in Vientiane.

"To change the foreign minister at this crucial moment is an insult to the
international community and it is a clear message that Burma's leaders
have little or no regard for international opinion," a senior UN official
told the Bangkok Post.

Win Aung, the foreign minister, was replaced less than a week before he
was due to go to New York for the start of the UN General Assembly and
defend Burma in the face of international criticism. Apart from addressing
the UN, the foreign minister was also scheduled to attend an informal
meeting on Burma with UB Secretary-General Kofi Annan and the UN envoy to
Burma Razali Ismail.

Last week, Mr Annan released a very critical report on the state of
Burma's national reconciliation process. In it, he condemns the regime for
failing to involve the opposition leader and the political parties in the
national convention, which is drawing up a new constitution.

Earlier this year, Win Aung consistently told UN representatives and his
Asian counterparts that Ms Suu Kyi would be released, the offices of her
National League for Democracy party would be allowed to re-open, and the
political parties permitted to function normally before the National
Convention convened.

None of this, of course, eventuated, and the United Nations continues to
demand an explanation from the foreign minister. The secretary-general's
report also highlights the foreign minister's unfulfilled promises.

Win Aung has been the face of Burma for the international community. His
removal is a clear indication that Gen Than Shwe no longer wants to engage
with the international community.

It also casts doubt on the future of UN envoy Razali. It is now seven
months since he was last allowed to visit Rangoon. Repeated requests to
return have been rebuffed by the regime, according to diplomats in
Rangoon.

Mr Razali angered the senior general last time he was in Rangoon by
calling for the prime minister to be given a mandate to introduce
political reform and by suggesting that there was a rift between the top
military leaders, according to a senior Asian diplomat.

The foreign minister's removal also means that the hardliners, who see no
need to introduce political reform nor engage the international community,
have strengthened their control within the government.

The pragmatists, including Prime Minister Khin Nyunt, who favour involving
Ms Suu Kyi in the national reconciliation process and engaging in a
dialogue with the international community, are being increasingly
sidelined.

Because of its role in bilateral and international affairs, the Foreign
Ministry has traditionally come under the country's military intelligence
chiefs. They have generally served abroad as ambassadors or military
attaches.

Win Aung had a long career abroad, including as ambassador to London,
before taking up his post as foreign minister in 1999. His military
background was also in intelligence and he was very close to General Khin
Nyunt, the prime minister and intelligence chief.

With Win Aung's replacement, Gen Than Shwe has wrested the control of
foreign affairs away from military intelligence. The new foreign minister,
Major-General Nyan Win, is a pure army man, having graduated from the
elite military Defence Service Academy. He is a Gen Than Shwe loyalist.

It is also highly significant that the cabinet changes were signed and
announced by the State Peace and Development Council's secretary one,
General Soe Win, and not the prime minister. After Gen Khin Nyunt was made
prime minister a little over a year ago, he announced the cabinet posts.
So the announcement of these cabinet changes by Gen Soe Win is much more
than just a slight to Gen Khin Nyunt.

In a country where rumour and symbolism are everything, this is a clear
sign that Gen Khin Nyunt has been marginalised and is relatively
powerless.

"My prime minister is in a very dangerous situation," Win Aung reportedly
told his counterparts and Mr Razali at the Asean foreign ministers meeting
in Jakarta in late June.

Khin Nyunt is worried about his position, and may even fear for his life,
according to a senior Asian diplomat who met Win Aung recently. The
foreign minister also hinted that both he and the prime minister may have
to leave the country for their own safety in the near future.

The cabinet changes took almost all the regional governments by surprise.
The only exception was Beijing. The deputy intelligence chief,
Major-General Kyaw Win, visited China a little over a week ago and briefed
the Chinese leaders on the new cabinet.

Diplomats in the region are treating the changes with caution. "We should
not be too quick to jump to any conclusions," said a senior diplomat in
Southeast Asia who regularly deals with Burma. "The new man is an unknown
quantity but he has a reputation of being a bright, young officer."

Several foreign ministries in the region spent much of the weekend burning
the midnight oil trying to assess what impact these changes will have on
Burma's relations with its neighbours, especially the countries of Asean.

Thailand is particularly worried as it has invested substantial time and
effort in trying to coax Burma's leaders into introducing political reform
and releasing Ms Suu Kyi.

Foreign Minister Surakiart Sathirathai has cultivated his Burmese
counterpart and the two had developed a very warm relationship, often
discussing bilateral matters on the telephone.

The Thais are worried about what will happen to the Bangkok process they
initiated last year, where Asian and European minister tried to help
Burma's reform process. Win Aung's removal leaves Thailand marooned.

"It is three years of work virtually down the drain," a Thai diplomat said.

Since the first meeting in December, Rangoon has cooled on the idea of the
Bangkok Process. The second meeting planned for April this year had to be
cancelled because of Burma's reluctance to participate.

Burma's top leaders are split Gen Khin Nyunt favours working with
Thailand, whereas Gen Than Shwe mistrusts Bangkok's motives and personally
dislikes Thailand. With Gen Than Shwe strengthening his control over
foreign policy, Win Aung's replacement as foreign minister may be the
final nail in the coffin of the Bangkok Process, according to many Asian
diplomats.

In the end, these cabinet changes are probably bad news for most of
Burma's Asian allies. There is going to be increased pressure on them now
to convince Rangoon to introduce a measure of political reform, especially
at the forthcoming international meetings like Asem in Hanoi and the Asean
summit in Vientiane.

It is quite likely though that Rangoon will leave its chair at Asem empty
on the pretext that the new foreign minister is unprepared for the meeting
and too busy with other matters.