BurmaNet News October 22, 2004

[Editor]

October 22, 2004, Issue # 2585

INSIDE BURMA
AP: Myanmar's new prime minister moves to shore up relations with former
ethnic rebels
AP: Ethnic Peace May Be in Jeopardy in Myanmar
AFP: Myanmar's hardliner crackdown also a cash grab: analysts and opposition
AFP: Myanmar junta tells diplomats no policy shift with leadership change
Xinhua News Agency: Myanmar abolishes national intelligence bureau
AP: Myanmar exiles slam planned visit to India by Myanmar's leader

ON THE BORDER
Thai News Service: Myanmar shuts down border ports

DRUGS
Xinhua News Agency: Thai army intensifies anti-drug crackdown along
northern border

BUSINESS / MONEY
Thai News Service: Thai companies benefit from loan to Myanmar
Kasikorn Research Center: Myanmar shake-up creates uncertainties in
business ties with Thailand

REGIONAL
Reuters: Myanmar leader to go ahead with visit to India

INTERNATIONAL
AFP: Money-laundering task force withdraws counter-measures on Myanmar, Nauru

OPINION / OTHER

PRESS RELEASE

NCGUB: Moving Chairs About on the Titanic?

ANNOUNCEMENT

Burma UN Service Office: Burma in the midst: power struggle within the
military


______________________________________
INSIDE BURMA

October 22, Associated Press
Myanmar's new prime minister moves to shore up relations with former
ethnic rebels

Myanmar's new prime minister has assured former ethnic rebels that the
military government will continue to allow them limited autonomy and
promote development in their regions, a news report said.

Prime Minister Lt. Gen. Soe Win also said that a constitution-drafting
body that met earlier this year as part of the military government's
so-called roadmap to democracy would reconvene, Radio Free Asia reported
Thursday.

Soe Win's predecessor, who was abruptly replaced on Tuesday, played a
crucial role in achieving peace deals with rebel groups and in quelling
unrest among ethnic minorities that has plagued the country since it
gained independence from Britain in 1948.

Seventeen rebel groups have signed cease-fire agreements with the
government, and some have expressed concern that Soe Win might renege on
the previous government's promises.

But Soe Win told former rebels in the northern Kachin state that the
junta's "policy toward the cease-fire groups will not change," Radio Free
Asia quoted Ngu Yin Taung Haw, a spokesman for the New Democratic Army of
Kachin, as saying.

He did not say when the constitution-drafting body would reconvene, the
U.S. government-funded broadcaster said.

The pro-democracy opposition, led by detained Nobel Peace Prize laureate
Aung San Suu Kyi, has called the convention undemocratic and refused to
participate.

Soe Win, 56, is believed to espouse a hard line in dealing with Suu Kyi's
National League for Democracy and with Western countries that are
pressuring the junta to free Suu Kyi and hand power to an elected
government.

His predecessor, Khin Nyunt, 65, was considered pragmatic and more open to
dialogue with opponents.

The government announced on Tuesday that Khin Nyunt resigned for health
reasons, but officials privately said he had been implicated in a
corruption scandal and placed under house arrest.

Khin Nyunt also helped to draft the democracy roadmap, which was supposed
to culminate in free elections at an unspecified future date.

Foreign Minister Nyan Win promised foreign diplomats on Thursday that the
junta would stick to the plans for gradual democratization.

He said domestic and international policies would not change under Soe
Win, according to diplomats who attended the meeting but wished to remain
anonymous.

Nyan Win made no mention of Suu Kyi, who has been in detention since a
bloody attack on her and her followers by government supporters in May
last year, the diplomats said.

The National League for Democracy won elections in 1990 but was not
allowed to take power.

Some diplomats at the meeting with Nyan Win voiced their governments'
concerns that any progress toward democracy and improved human rights
might be halted by the surprise transition.

"As a friendly neighbor, we sincerely hope that Myanmar can maintain
social stability," Chinese Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Zhang Qiyue said
in Beijing Thursday. "We also hope that the process of national
reconciliation and democracy in Myanmar can move forward."

Southeast Asian countries friendly to the junta, such as Malaysia and
Thailand, have expressed similar sentiments, as have nations critical of
the military regime, such as the United States.

______________________________________


October 22, Associated Press
Ethnic Peace May Be in Jeopardy in Myanmar

One of the few unchallenged accomplishments of Myanmar's military junta --
securing peace with the country's armed ethnic rebel groups -- may be in
jeopardy after Prime Minister Gen. Khin Nyunt lost his job this week.

A delegation of Karen ethnic guerrillas -- among the last rebel groups
that has not signed a cease-fire with the government -- returned to their
jungle bases Thursday from a peace mission to Myanmar's capital, staying
only two days for what were supposed to be weeklong talks.

The interruption came after Khin Nyunt, architect of 17 ceasefires reached
with ethnic separatists, was abruptly ousted on Tuesday and replaced with
Lt. Gen. Soe Win, who is associated with a more hard-line army faction
disinclined to compromise with its opponents.

Myanmar officials have quickly underlined that policies won't change on
some of the major issues facing the regime -- a promised timetable for
gradual democratization and the cease-fires with ethnic minorities seeking
greater autonomy.

Myanmar, also known as Burma, has been under military rule since 1962. The
current group of generals has been in power since 1988 and has attracted
widespread international criticism for its widely documented human rights
abuses and refusal to allow democracy. It held elections in 1990, but
refused to hand over power when the party of opposition leader Aung San
Suu Kyi won a landslide victory. Suu Kyi is currently in detention.

Amid the government assurances, the Karen are taking a wait-and-see
attitude to the new premier. But another group, the Shan State Army,
believes the future is bleak.

"The generals are clinging to a military solution, we believe that once
they settle their internal affairs, the military will launch more
offensives on the ethnic nationalities," said the group's spokeswoman,
Khur Hsen.

Soe Win traveled to Myanmar's north to meet with former rebels to reassure
them that the government would maintain its policy of granting them
limited autonomy and promoting development in their regions, a news report
said Friday.

Soe Win told former rebels in the northern Kachin state that the junta's
"policy toward the cease-fire groups will not change," Radio Free Asia
reported, quoting Ngu Yin Taung Haw, a spokesman for the New Democratic
Army of Kachin.

Khin Nyunt, who was also military intelligence chief, was considered
pragmatic and willing to engage in dialogue with both ethnic rebels and
Suu Kyi's pro-democracy movement.

"Khin Nyunt was the man who masterminded cease-fires -- 17 in all -- and
reduced the wars on the frontier even if he did not stop the predatory
behavior of the military toward civilians," said Josef Silverstein, a
longtime U.S. scholar of Myanmar affairs.

Debbie Stothard, head of the Southeast Asian human rights group
ALTSEAN-Burma, said that as a result of the change in leadership: " In
addition to a hardening line against democracy movement, there is a
possibility that ethnic nationality communities will also see greater
military attacks, and therefore more refugees leaving the country."

Unrest among ethnic minorities, mostly along the eastern border with
Thailand, has bedeviled the country since it gained independence from
Britain in 1948.

The junta since 1988 secured cease-fires with most of the restive groups
by granting them a degree of autonomy. In some cases, this involved
turning a blind eye to production of illegal drugs, such as heroin and
methamphetamine.

The Karen National Union -- the only major group that hasn't signed a full
cease-fire agreement -- entered into peace late last year. Its 16-member
delegation arrived in Yangon for a third round of formal talks just as
Khin Nyunt was being ousted.

Returning Thursday to bases on the Thai border, they said nothing untoward
occurred during their abbreviated talks, denying reports they had been
held under house arrest in the Myanmar capital.

"We understood their elders were busy because of sudden (political)
changes, and they asked us to meet again next time but the date has not
been fixed yet," said David Htaw, the group's foreign affairs chief and
head of the delegation.

On Thursday, Foreign Minister Nyan Win told foreign diplomats that
government policy toward ethnic minority groups with whom it has signed
cease-fires would remain the same.

But Shan State Army spokeswoman Khur Hsen said that "They sacked Khin
Nyunt because Khin Nyunt pushed for democracy and national reconciliation
with ethnic minorities."

____________________________________

October 22, Agence France Presse
Myanmar's hardliner crackdown also a cash grab: analysts and opposition

The sacking and arrest of Myanmar's premier has exposed the political and
economic battle between rival military factions and highlighted widespread
corruption in the isolated nation, analysts said Friday.

Myanmar's foreign minister Nyan Win told diplomats that General Khin Nyunt
had to bear his share of responsibility for the corruption within the
ranks of Military Intelligence (MI), which he headed for 20 years, said a
source close to the meeting.

The intelligence wing allegedly controls much of the black market and drug
money in Myanmar -- the world's second largest opium producer -- and is a
bitter rival of hardline army factions loyal to the junta leadership.

With the generals struggling to stay afloat in the face of crippling trade
embargoes and with widespread jitters among foreign investors, analysts
said those loyal to general number one Than Shwe had long set their sights
on MI's fortunes.

"These fellows (MI) have been acting like the mafia," a source close to
Myanmar's military intelligence told AFP, adding that they had used the
unit's elite status to collect a lot of "unaccountable income."

MI corruption is particularly strong along the border areas where the
daily income of a sergeant far outstrips the pay of a mainstream military
man, said the source.

Last month the army reportedly became disgruntled when MI began moving
into their own business territory.

Soon afterwards, regular army soldiers raided a busy checkpoint at Muse,
some 800 kilometres (500 miles) north of Yangon, near the Chinese border,
where they reportedly arrested dozens of officials including members of
Military Intelligence.

The soldiers seized an unspecified amount of gold bars, jade, cash and
other valuables.

The smuggling of drugs by ethnic minorities, which have signed ceasefire
deals with Military Intelligence, has become so prolific that Thailand
threatened to build a fence along the border earlier this year.

Ceasefire deals have given Military Intelligence access to the country's
gem mines and teak forests, that environmentalists have warned are being
overexploited to the point of eradication.

"(MI) negotiated all the ceasefire agreements with the ethnic minorities,
the terms of which saw a lot of money flowing from these regions into
Myanmar banks which thrive on money laundering and corruption," the head
of Thailand's Senate Committee on Foreign Affairs, Kraisak Choonhavan told
AFP.

"It is also common knowledge that the generals are incredibly corrupt and
have been struggling to maintain their fortunes."

The wealth shake-up began before Khin Nyunt's arrest on Tuesday with
several profitable businesses operated by Military Intelligence, such as a
travel agency, closed down.

Khin Nyunt was considered close to Myanmar's former dictator Ne Win who in
2002 died at his Yangon home, where he had been held under house arrest
along with his favored daughter Sandar Win on charges of planning a coup.

A medical doctor in her 50s, Sandar Win was reputed to preside over a clan
that parlayed its patriarch's influence into a significant business empire
encompassing hotels, medical services and telecommunications. She remains
under house arrest.

Myanmar was ranked among the top five most corrupt countries in the world
in a global corruption index released Wednesday by graft watchdog
Transparency International.

Diplomats have described the corruption as so entrenched that it is simply
viewed as unofficial taxation or the accepted way of doing business.

"They (the junta) run the economy and have a hand in all deals... and a
lot of those economic turns are for the army or sometimes a ministry,"
said former Australian ambassador to Myanmar Trevor Wilson.

Groups pushing for an end to military rule in Myanmar said corruption was
the glue binding the junta together.

Debbie Stothard, from pro-democracy group Altsean, said almost all
enterprises were owned by the state, individual generals, or family and
friends of the military.

She cited Khin Nyunt's son who runs Internet firm Bagan Cybertech. The
company was raided by the military after Khin Nyunt's arrest and officials
were going through the company's books on Friday.

"This is the military's answer to Asian family values," said Stothard.

"People on the streets in Burma are finding this amusing that Khin Nyunt
has been arrested for corruption, when the whole regime is built on
corruption."

____________________________________

October 22, Agence France Presse
Myanmar junta tells diplomats no policy shift with leadership change

Myanmar's military leadership has admitted the ouster of the nation's
premier was linked to corruption but denied it signaled an end to
tentative democratic reforms, diplomatic sources said Friday.

Foreign Minister Nyan Win told diplomats that General Khin Nyunt had
retired for health reasons but had to "bear his share of responsibility"
for corruption within military intelligence, which he headed for 20 years,
the sources said.

Khin Nyunt was not named as being personally involved in corrupt dealings
but paid the price for a raid by authorities on a checkpoint at Muse on
the border with China last month.

Dozens of officials, including military intelligence men, were arrested
and gold and gems seized.

State media reported Tuesday that the ex-premier had retired on health
grounds. Officials in neighboring Thailand said he had been sacked for
corruption and was under house arrest.

Nyan Win, briefing senior foreign diplomats in Yangon, stuck by the
junta's assertion that he stood down for health reasons but made clear the
"unofficial, official position" was that corruption was linked to his
sacking, one source said.

The former prime minister was described as being at home with his family.

The diplomats were also told the military would continue with a
seven-point "road map" to democracy outlined by Khin Nyunt in August 2003.

It includes a national convention to draft a new constitution. The
convention is currently adjourned and there are concerns it might be
delayed further after the leadership shake-up.

The "road map", which is supposed to conclude with multi-party elections,
has been dismissed as a sham by the United States and boycotted by the
opposition National League for Democracy (NLD).

Nyan Win also stressed the junta's willingness to work with ethnic groups
opposed to the military regime, despite canceling peace talks due this
week with the country's largest group defying the military, the Karen
National Union.

The former premier was seen as responsible for persuading 17 ethnic groups
opposed to the regime to sign ceasefire agreements.

His replacement by hardliner Soe Win sparked concerns that the military
would take a tougher stance against ethnic groups who make up about a
third of Myanmar's 50 million population.

But Nyan Win stressed "those were government negotiations and not Khin
Nyunt's," a source close to the meeting said.

Khin Nyunt supported dialogue with NLD leader Aung San Suu Kyi, who has
been under house arrest for the past 16 months, and analysts said his
sacking and arrest had deepened gloom for the prospects of her release.

His ouster change was seen as a move by Than Shwe, the head of the junta
known as the State Peace and Development Council, to consolidate control
over the country's leaders.

The leadership has been marked by worsening political and business rivalry
between a military intelligence faction and those from the mainstream
military.

The military has ruled Myanmar, formerly known as Burma, since 1962. The
NLD won elections in a landslide in 1990 but has never been allowed to
rule.

____________________________________

October 22, Xinhua News Agency
Myanmar abolishes national intelligence bureau

Myanmar on Friday enacted a law abolishing the National Intelligence
Bureau (NIB), state-run Radio Myanmar reported.

The law, signed by Chairman of the State Peace and Development Council
(SPDC) Senior-General Than Shwe, states that the existing NIB law, enacted
in 1983, is no longer in the interest of the people while the country is
on the way to becoming a modern, developed and disciplinary one.

The NIB previously included such intelligence sub-organizations as Bureau
of Special Investigation (BSI) and Special Branch (SB) dealing with
political, economic and criminal matters.

Observers here said although the NIB is no longer in existence, the
military intelligence (MI) under the defense services is still in
operation. However, the special power of the intelligence organization has
been much weakened and restricted according to the new law abolishing the
NIB.

The promulgation of the new law came three days after Myanmar carried out
a surprising and major cabinet reshuffle on Tuesday, in which former prime
minister General Khin Nyunt, who had been military intelligence chief for
about 20 years, was removed.

____________________________________

October 22, Associated Press
Myanmar exiles slam planned visit to India by Myanmar's leader

Exiles from Myanmar on Friday criticized a visit to India next week by the
head of Myanmar's military government, saying it sends a wrong signal
shortly after the generals replaced a more moderate prime minister with a
hardline officer.

Senior Gen. Than Shwe starts a six-day visit on Sunday -- the first to
India by a Myanmar leader in 24 years.

Relations between the military dictatorship and the world's largest
democracy have warmed over the past four years, reversing the strains of
1988, when Myanmar's military rulers violently crushed a pro-democracy
uprising.

"The visit will send a wrong signal to people of Myanmar and the
international community, which supports democratic forces in Myanmar,"
said Soe Myint, editor of the New Delhi-based Mizzima Internet news site,
which campaigns against the Myanmar military government.

Thi Law, a spokesman for the Students' Youth Congress of Burma, said his
group and other exile organizations would hold a rally in central New
Delhi on Saturday to demonstrate support for pro-democracy leader Aung San
Suu Kyi.

The Nobel Peace Prize winner has been in detention since an attack on her
and her followers by a pro-government mob last year.

The Indian government said late Thursday it expects to sign agreements
with Myanmar on cooperation in security, a hydroelectric project and
cultural exchanges.

Than Shwe and Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh also will explore
expanded cooperation in industry, energy, rail transportation,
communications, science, technology and health, it said.

India is one of Myanmar's major trading partners and is the second-largest
market for Myanmar's goods, after Thailand. India and Myanmar have set a
target of US$1 billion (euro 814 million) worth of trade by 2006.

The Times of India said Friday that New Delhi wants joint military
operations to flush out armed rebels that India believes operate from
Myanmar, crossing the 1,330-kilometer (830-mile) border.

A series of explosions and attacks killed more than 70 people this month
in India's northeastern states of Assam and Nagaland, near the Myanmar
border, where dozens of tribal-based militant outfits have fought for
decades for independence or autonomy.

Than Shwe's visit come days after former Myanmar Prime Minister Khin Nyunt
-- viewed as a relative moderate -- was replaced by a hard-liner, Lt. Gen.
Soe Win.
____________________________________
ON THE BORDER

October 22, Thai News Service
Myanmar shuts down border ports

Myanmar yesterday ordered the closure of 19 cross-border trading ports on
the Moei River while mobilizing troop reinforcements in the border area,
but local business leaders remained optimistic that the impact on trade
between the two countries would be short-lived.

The closure of the ports, which follows Monday's removal of Myanmar Prime
Minister Khin Nyunt from political office, was ordered today by Gen Maung
Aye, the deputy chairman of Myanmar's State Peace and Development Council.

Sources said that the port closures, with a simultaneous ban on the
movement of Thai goods across the border, indicated that the entire border
might be closed in the future.

Myanmar has also moved fully-armed troops into the border area of Karen
State, adjacent to Thailand's Tak Province. On the Thai side, immigration
police have tightened checks on anyone crossing the border, while border
military and police patrols have been undertaking surveillance operations,
with aircraft ordered to monitor the border area in preparation for
further political changes in Myanmar.

Mr. Suchart Treeratwattana, president of the Tak Chamber of Commerce, said
that the disposal of Gen. Khin Nyunt had sent the Myanmar Kyat sliding,
with 100 Kyat now valued at Bt4.30, compared to Bt4.40 at the weekend.

Nonetheless, he expressed confidence that the political changes in Myanmar
would have only a short-term impact on cross-border trade.
_____________________________________
DRUGS

October 22, Xinhua News Agency
Thai army intensifies anti-drug crackdown along northern border

At least 1,200 soldiers have been ordered to participate in a renewed
combat against drug-smuggling in two northern provinces near the
Thai-Myanmar border, a senior army officer said on Friday.

Major Gen. Manas Paorik, the commander of the Pha Muang Task Force in the
northern Chiang Mai province, said a renewed campaign against
drug-trafficking in Chiang Mai and Chiang Rai have begun this week in a
bid to make the areas drugs-free and build confidence among local
residents.

"We target people who might have been part of trafficking rings and have
hidden narcotics in their residence," the commander was quoted by the
official Thai News Agency as saying.

He added that the soldiers were divided into two groups with one operating
in mountain area and the other in border villages, where they have set up
checkpoints, intensified patrols and intelligence gathering to search for
drug-related activities.

Since the government's anti-drug war started last February,
drug-trafficking in Thailand has been reduced to a much lower level
compared to early period. But in some border region, the situation still
remains grim.
_____________________________________
BUSINESS / MONEY

October 22, Thai News Service
Thai companies benefit from loan to Myanmar

Shin Satellite, Krung Thai Tractor, Italian-Thai Development, Tipco
Asphalt and Marubeni are among the beneficiaries of the Bt4-billion "soft
loan" to Myanmar, The Nation reports.

The credit line was extended recently by the Export-Import Bank of
Thailand (Exim) to the Myanmar Foreign Trade Bank, which allows Burmese
agencies to buy capital goods and related services from Thai companies.

The financing deal is part of Thailand's Economic Cooperation Strategy to
help its neighboring countries boost their economies.

A source at the Senate foreign relations committee said Krung Thai Tractor
would stand to gain the most with the Burmese pledging to acquire its
products with a loan of US$25 million (Bt1 billion).

It is followed by ShinSat ($15 million), Italian-Thai Development ($3.6
million), Tipco Asphalt ($3.6 million) and Tomain Enterprise ($2.4
million).

Exim Bank's Bt4-billion credit package aims to support 51 projects and 15
businesses in Burma. But after the coup in Rangoon on Tuesday, Prime
Minister Thaksin Shinawatra ordered the Exim to review the loan to ensure
the money is being used according to the original intended purposes.

To date, some Bt339 million has already been lent. Exim president Sataporn
Jinachitra said earlier the Burmese bank was scheduled to take another
Bt1.5-2 billion before the end of this year.

_____________________________________

October 21, Kasikorn Research Center
Leadership shake-up in Myanmar creates uncertainties in business ties with
Thailand

The abrupt change in Myanmar's Prime Minister has attracted the attention
of the international community to keep a close watch on the internal
political direction there, once again.

Thailand, as one of Myanmar's neighbors sharing a common border, has
developed smooth cooperation with this country over the past three years.
Kasikorn Research Center (KRC) has assessed the economic impacts that this
political change may have on Thailand and Myanmar in light of three main
aspects including trade, investment and tourism.

1. Thai-Myanmar Trade - Impacts on trade between Thailand and Myanmar were
felt immediately after the change in political power in Myanmar,
particularly along the border between the two countries. Both Thais and
Myanmar who had trade deals along the border began to feel uncertain with
what had happened in Myanmar and put off their frontier trade temporarily,
though the situation returned to normalcy on the following day.

Kasikorn Research Center (KRC) takes the view that impacts on border trade
between Thailand and Myanmar will be only short-term if the new Myanmar
Prime Minister continues to run the country as an economic partner with
other countries, including Thailand.

However, if the new leader changes their economic policy, Thailand must
monitor the situation closely to find ways to mitigate the impacts that
may occur.

So far, frontier trade between Thailand and Myanmar this year has been
very bright. Exports of goods from Thailand through Thai-Myanmar border
rose by 65.6 percent to Bt12.642 billion during the first eight months
this year.

On the import front, Thailand's imports of Myanmar products dropped
modestly to Bt29.516 billion over the same period. Among major goods
Thailand imported from Myanmar were natural gas, accounting for more than
90 percent of Thailand's total border trade. Thailand has suffered a
border trade deficit with Myanmar since 2001, when we started buying
natural gas from Myanmar. During the first eight months of 2004, Thailand
posted a trade deficit of Bt16.874 billion with Myanmar.

2. Investment between Thailand - Myanmar This circumstance of Myanmar
changing prime ministers is not likely to have much impact on Thailand's
investments in Myanmar because Thai investments in Myanmar have been
rather small since the Asian financial crisis in 1997.

Existing Thai investment projects in Myanmar include shrimp farming
projects and animal feed manufacturing by the CP group, Ital-Thai in
mining, PTT's surveying and pumping of natural gas, and Shin Corp.
investments in telecommunication, etc., which are not likely to be
affected by Myanmar's internal affairs. As these investment projects
benefit the Myanmarian people directly and will help create foreign
currency earnings for Myanmar, as well.

3. Tourism between Thailand - Myanmar Tourism is an activity that will be
immediately affected by political volatility. However, it is anticipated
that the changing political situation in Myanmar will only have temporary
impacts, as the atmosphere for tourism in Myanmar is very bright, at
present. The Myanmar government is campaigning to promote tourism and
better facilitation for foreign tourists, recently, in such aspects as
issuing visas, etc.

Moreover, new tourism venues were opened and a new transportation route
that was developed and opened in the beginning of 2004, linked a
transportation route from Mae Sai District in Chiang Rai province of
Thailand through the Myanmar border town of Tachilek to Kyaingtong and
Mong Lar in Myanmar's Shan State, which connects with the Chinese southern
border and permits further travel to Dali in the Sipsongpanna autonomous
zone in China's Yunnan province. This has resulted in Thai tourists
pouring into Myanmar at the beginning of the year, soaring 123.7 percent
to 9,763 tourists in the first quarter of 2004.

Tourism business is a good source of income that brings foreign currency
into Myanmar, and it is expected that Myanmar's administrative management
will not likely make any adjustments or changes to its current tourism
policies.

Kasikorn Research Center Co., Ltd.
Tel. +66 2273-1883-4, Fax. +66 2270-1235, 2270-1569
Email: info at krc.co.th
____________________________________
REGIONAL

Octobre 22, Reuters
Myanmar leader to go ahead with visit to India

Myanmar's military leader Senior General Than Shwe will go ahead with a
historic trip to India next week, which had been in doubt after a
political shakeup in Yangon.

The Indian foreign ministry said Than Shwe, his wife, and a delegation
including eight cabinet ministers, would pay a state visit from Oct. 24 to
29, the first by a leader of the former Burma in nearly a quarter century.

"This visit is historic in nature," it said in a statement.

"India has friendly relations with the Union of Myanmar. In recent years,
the relationship has grown and diversified, based on the mutual desire to
establish a long-term cooperative partnership, and culminating in Senior
General Than Shwe's visit to India," it said.

This week's purge of Prime Minister Khin Nyunt could cast a pall over the
trip to India, which has been pursuing closer ties with Myanmar despite
some domestic opposition to the junta.

Khin Nyunt, who was also the powerful head of military intelligence, was
sacked just over a year after he had announced the junta's seven-step
"roadmap to democracy".

The military, which has ruled in various guises since 1962, pledged on
Thursday to continue with the democracy roadmap dismissed by some Western
critics as a way to entrench army rule.

Myanmar exiles living in India after New Delhi supported their
pro-democracy cause in the late 1980s said they would protest against Than
Shwe's visit.

"We are against his visit. We support Suu Kyi," said Thi Law, a spokesman
for the Students' Youth Congress of Burma, referring to Myanmar's detained
democracy icon Aung San Suu Kyi.

New Delhi was among the first countries to condemn Myanmar's military
rulers for their repression of pro-democracy activists in 1988.

But worried over the rising influence of China in Myanmar and prompted by
a "look-east" policy that sought to boost ties with South East Asian
countries, India did a dramatic turnaround in the early 1990s and pushed
bilateral initiatives in trade, investment and security.

Than Shwe would hold talks with Indian President A.P.J. Abdul Kalam and
Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, the statement said.

The two countries will sign security and cultural pacts and an agreement
on the Tamanthi hydroelectric project in Myanmar, it said without
elaborating. The Myanmar delegation would also visit the Taj Mahal city of
Agra, India's technology hub Bangalore, Calcutta and the Buddhist holy
centres of Sarnath and Bodh Gaya, the statement said.
_____________________________________
INTERNATIONAL

October 22, Agence France Presse
Money-laundering task force withdraws counter-measures on Myanmar, Nauru

The Financial Action Task Force, an international body against money
laundering, said Friday it was withdrawing counter-measures against
Myanmar and Nauru.

"FATF members have withdrawn the counter-measures against Myanmar and
Nauru, as these countries have now introduced new measures to remedy
anti-money laundering deficiencies," the body said in a statement.

FATF president Jean-Louis Fort told a news conference that Myanmar had
adopted mutual assistance legislation and that Nauru had taken important
steps to stamp out offshore banks.

Nevertheless, the two countries would remain on the FATF's list of
uncooperative countries and territories until they take further measures.

The FATF, which operates under the auspices of the Organization for
Economic Cooperation and Development, currently numbers 31 countries along
with the European Union executive commission and the Gulf Cooperation
Council.

The task force has no precisely defined structure and recently had its
mandate extended to 2012.
_____________________________________
OPINION / OTHER

PRESS RELEASE

October 21, National Coalition Government of the Union of Burma
Moving Chairs About on the Titanic?

The National Coalition Government of the Union of Burma does not believe
that the dismissal of Prime Minister General Khin Nyunt will drastically
change the country’s political direction. This is because the military has
already hijacked the country moving on a course toward a
military-dominated political future which is what Senior General Than Shwe
and his cohorts have been working for over the years.  Besides, General
Khin Nyunt—regardless of whether he is a “moderate” or a “hardliner”—
never really had the decision-making power at the national-level which
remains solely in the hands of Senior General Than Shwe. This situation
will continue to hold true for the new Prime Minister Lt Gen Soe Win as
well.

Factional struggles over the years have been depleting the ranks of
generals and they belie the claim that the Burmese Army is a monolithic
institution.  These struggles will continue until the military seriously
considers working with the people to resolve the ills of the nation.  Only
a genuinely democratic system of governance can guarantee the stability
and security of the country and the military as well.

The generals will not be able to overcome the economic backlash, regional
instability arising from unrest among armed cease-fire groups, and
dissatisfaction within the armed forces if they refuse to work with the
people.  The country will be dragged to doom and the current change in the
military hierarchy will become nothing more than what must be described as
“moving chairs about on the Titanic”.

But, the opportunity to do the right thing is here and now.  The military
can start anew and bring peace to the country by starting a dialogue with
the election winning political parties, particularly the National League
for Democracy, to work toward national reconciliation.

Prime Minister Dr Sein Win said: “Without corrective intervention, we are
concerned that the generals will continue to ignore popular opinion and
step up the hostilities against ethnic and democracy movements and
threaten the safety and security of Daw Aung San Suu Kyi and other
democratic leaders.  Regional and neighboring countries, which have been
supporting and defending the Burmese generals regardless, should also
adopt appropriate measures to guide Burma back on to the correct path
toward democracy.”
ANNOUNCEMENT

Burma in the midst: power struggle within the military & its impact on
Democratization

When: October 29, 2004 Friday, 1 - 3 p.m.

Where:
777 UN Plaza 12th Floor
New York, NY 10017
RSVP : (212)-338-0048
burma1un at igc.org

Speakers:
Khun Teddy Buri
[NLD MP-Elect and President of the Members of the Parliamentary Union, Burma]

Saw David Tharckabaw
[Joint Secretary for Foreign Affairs of the Karen National Union]

Thaung Htun
[Representative for UN Affairs, NCGUB]

Moderator:
Maureen Aung-Thwin
[Director of Burma Project/Southeast Asia Initiative, Open Society Institute]

Sandwiches will be served.

Sponsored by Burma UN Service Office