BurmaNet News, November 20-22, 2004

[Editor]

November 20-22, 2004, Issue # 2606

“I come back home like someone who has done his work.”
- Min Ko Naing, Burmese former political prisoner, upon his release from
jail, as quoted in Irrawaddy, November 22, 2004

INSIDE BURMA
AFP: Uncertainty surrounds Myanmar prisoner release as families wait
Irrawaddy: Min Ko Naing ‘unsurprised’ by his release
IHT: Myanmar junta freeing some of its foes
S.H.A.N.: Army set to move command from Rangoon

ON THE BORDER
AFP: Three bodies found in Myanmar refugee camp in Bangladesh
Network Media: Burma's media network launches new news website

DRUGS
Thai Press Reports: Thailand to join Asean NGOs' anti-drugs meeting in
Myanmar

BUSINESS
Observer: Protests mount as Burmese imports surge

REGIONAL
AFP: Economic integration, Thailand, Myanmar to dominate ASEAN summit
AP: Malaysia tells Myanmar to show "tangible" proof it's serious about
democracy

INTERNATIONAL
AFP: US sniffs at Myanmar prisoner release, demands freedom for all
political detainees
AFP: Foreign pressure may have prompted Myanmar junta to free some foes:
analysts

OPINION / OTHER

PRESS RELEASE

______________________________________
INSIDE BURMA

November 22, Agence France Presse
Uncertainty surrounds Myanmar prisoner release as families wait

Yangon: Myanmar's planned release of nearly 4,000 prisoners appeared to
have halted Monday with no sign of any easing of restrictions around the
nation's most famous detainee, democracy leader Aung San Suu Kyi.

Families of political dissidents faced an anxious wait after one
opposition MP expected to have been released was told he faced an
additional 60 days in prison, according to his family.

Myanmar's military leaders on Thursday ordered the release of nearly 4,000
inmates they say may have been wrongly imprisoned by a now-dissolved
military intelligence unit. The opposition said red tape meant the process
could take a week.

Only several hundred have so far been released, among them a couple of
dozen dissidents including the leader of 1988 student protests, Min Ko
Naing, the country's number two political prisoner after Aung San Suu Kyi.

Media on Monday gathered close to the home of the leader of the National
League for Democracy (NLD) amid widespread rumours of her release from
house arrest but security remained at normal levels, according to an AFP
correspondent.

The UN's special envoy for Myanmar, Razali Ismail, welcomed the "quite
exceptional" number of detainees due to be released and said Aung San Suu
Kyi wanted her freedom only after all other political prisoners.

However, relatives of lower level opposition politicians spoke Monday of
their frustration at delays surrounding the releases.

Than Nyen, 66, an NLD politician and brother-in-law of General Khin Nyunt,
the former premier who was sacked and put under house arrest last month
for corruption, was told he faced another 60 days in prison despite
serving his seven-year jail term, according to his wife who visited him
Monday.

The extension of jail terms is a popular tactic of the military if it is
not ready to free a political prisoner.

"I'm very worried about his state of mind... he has already gone through a
hunger-strike recently and was hospitalised," his wife Khin Aye told AFP.

Fellow NLD MP May Win Myint, 55, was jailed at the same time in 1997 for
trying to reform the party's youth wing in her township, against official
orders.

Following the release announcement, her husband U Win Myint waited for two
days outside the prison where she was being held without seeing her
emerge.

"I've decided to just wait at home and hope she appears at the door one of
these days," the tearful husband told AFP.

Authorities have not said exactly who is being freed. Those who have been
released include the small number of political prisoners as well as
several petty criminals and others who said they were serving terms of
five or seven years for robbery or assault.

Amnesty International says there are about 1,350 political prisoners in
Myanmar, including NLD members and others.

The opposition won elections by a landslide in 1990 but has never been
allowed to govern by the military, which has run the nation since 1962.

The US and European Union have imposed sanctions on Myanmar, formerly
known as Burma, for its crackdown on the opposition and detention of Aung
San Suu Kyi who has been held since May last year.

____________________________________

November 22, Irrawaddy
Min Ko Naing ‘unsurprised’ by his release - Aung Zaw

Min Ko Naing is a free man. But his freedom is still restricted—he’s
locked now not in a prison cell but in the embrace of a host of friends,
admirers and diplomats who have converged on his home to congratulate him
on his release last Friday.

Some have never met him before. Some came from the provinces to greet the
man with the name that means “Conqueror of Kings”.

Speaking to The Irrawaddy by phone from his home, the former student
leader, who is now 42, said he wasn’t too surprised to learn of his
release. Nearly 16 years in solitary confinement had taught him to cope
calmly with both good and bad news.

He was nonetheless grateful to learn the news of his freedom. “(Now) when
good things happen to me, I am ready to face (them) with calmness,” he
said.

“I come back home like someone who has done his work.”

Min Ko Naing doesn’t know why he was released, and he’s not sure if
international pressure had anything to do with it.

Some analysts have suggested Burma’s ruling State Peace and Development
Council, or SPDC, freed him because of international pressure and the
upcoming summit meeting in Laos of the Association of Southeast Asian
Nations, or Asean. Burma is an Asean member.

Whatever the reason, the junta made a courageous decision in freeing Min
Ko Naing, Burmese observers said.

Min Ko Naing said it was still too early to say if the Rangoon regime was
showing flexibility and a new policy direction. He was reluctant to
comment on the current political situation in Burma, or to talk about his
future plans. Nevertheless, he appeared to be cautiously optimistic in The
Irrawaddy interview.

Min Ko Naing said he was not tortured during his incarceration in the
notorious Insein prison, where he spent the first 12 years of his
sentence. He had a cell in a block that also housed some prominent
political prisoners, including Win Tin, Win Htein, and Khin Maung Swe.
They were not allowed to read books.

After he was transferred to Sittwe prison, 350 miles (560 km) northwest of
Rangoon, officials allowed him to read. To his delight, he had visits
there from representatives of the International Committee of the Red
Cross, or ICRC.

After the ICRC visits he was allowed books.

Min Ko Naing said he believed he was wrongfully charged and sentenced by
Military Intelligence, or MI. “So I thought it was appropriate that they
released me,” he told The Irrawaddy.

When Min Ko Naing and about a dozen other political prisoners were
released from prisons across the country last week, the military
government announced that the 3,937 prisoners it was freeing had been
sentenced improperly by the National Intelligence Bureau, or NIB. The
powerful NIB was dissolved last month after the military junta sacked
Prime Minister and intelligence chief Gen Khin Nyunt.

The charismatic student leader was arrested by the Military Intelligence
in March 1989 for his leadership role in the 1988 pro-democracy uprising.

Immediately after his release, he spoke to two radio stations, the BBC and
the Burmese service of Radio Free Asia, or RFA, which is based in
Washington DC.

The oratory that won admiration and applause in 1988 was still there in
his sober and mellow voice. “People were moved to listen to his
interviews,” a Burmese listener in Rangoon said.

There were no calls this time for strikes or anti-government revolt. He
talked about his prison experiences and about “mothers who have lost their
sons”, a reference to the many students who died in the 1988 uprising.

Min Ko Naing admitted in the interviews that he was out of touch because
of his long imprisonment. He said he needed to learn things and he the
time to do so.

Expectations are high following Min Ko Naing’s release, however. “His
release will add some energy and vigor in the democracy movement,”
commented a friend who is now living in exile.

____________________________________


November 20, The International Herald Tribune
Myanmar junta freeing some of its foes - Steve Hirsch

Mae Sot: Myanmar's ruling generals have begun a mass release of prisoners,
including some prominent political prisoners, in a move that appears to be
related to a purge of former Prime Minister Khin Nyunt's military
intelligence apparatus, a diplomat in Yangon said Friday.

The junta announced late Thursday that it intended to release 3,937
convicts, and the releases got under way Friday, said the diplomat, who
spoke by telephone from the Myanmar capital and asked not to be
identified.

News agencies reported from Yangon that senior members of Aung San Suu
Kyi's National League for Democracy were among those freed, although she
herself remained under house arrest.

Win Tin, a prominent journalist and aide to Aung San Suu Kyi, was released
Friday after 15 years in prison, Reuters reported from Yangon, quoting
league officials. It said at least two dozen members of the league had
been released.

A witness outside Yangon's Insein prison said about 200 prisoners were
freed Friday, most of whom had been serving short terms for criminal
offenses, The Associated Press reported.

The diplomat in Yangon cautioned that the mass prisoner release did not
necessarily mean that the ruling junta had softened its policy on dissent.
Instead, he said, it might have more to do with a continuing purge of the
influence of Khin Nyunt, who headed the National Intelligence Bureau until
he was removed last month.

"There are no signs this represents any fundamental change in their policy
toward the democratic opposition, or dissenters in general," the diplomat
said.

He said he had seen no evidence that Aung San Suu Kyi was about to be
freed, adding that there had been new arrests of members of the National
League for Democracy in the last week or two.

He also said that some of the freed political prisoners had already
completed their sentences.

Instead, the diplomat pointed to a crackdown by Myanmar's strongman,
Senior General Than Shwe, on the military intelligence wing of the army.

In its announcement Thursday, the junta said the nearly 4,000 prisoners
being released had been arrested "inappropriately" by the National
Intelligence Bureau, which it said had been "dissolved" on Oct. 20.

The diplomat confirmed reports reaching Thailand that hundreds of former
military intelligence operatives have been detained for interrogation by
the Myanmar authorities in recent weeks.

The military intelligence structure, he said, is "being targeted, if you
will, by the regime."

The Myanmar authorities have accused Khin Nyunt of corruption and
insubordination as the head of the intelligence bureau. There has been
speculation among Burmese exiles that his departure and the current
crackdown are linked to conflict between the intelligence and combat
branches of the military.

The prisoner release Friday came a week before a summit meeting of the
Association of Southeast Asian Nations.

A spokesman for the National League for Democracy, U Lwin, welcomed the
move, Reuters reported from Yangon. "We are very glad no matter who is
released," he said.

"It was a pleasant surprise for all of us," said Ohn Maung, 77, a league
official, who was among the first to reach home after an abrupt end to
more than six years of incarceration. "I went to prison on Feb. 26, 1998,
and got back home about 10 minutes ago," he told Reuters. "I did not have
to sign any undertaking, and I expect most of the NLD members will also be
released like me."

Other senior league members released Friday were Mey Win Myint, Kyaw San,
Toe Bo, Aung Zin, and Khun Sai, Agence France-Presse reported.

____________________________________

November 21, Shan Herald Agency for News
Army set to move command from Rangoon

Gen Thura Shwe Mann, Joint Chief of Staff of Burma's Armed Forces, is
making preparations to transfer the War Office to Pyinmana, 244 miles
north of Rangoon soon, according to a source close to the military, writes
Hawkeye from the border:

No details are available but the report agrees with a short article
contained in News on Burma (http://www.democratic-burma.com/) an online
daily paper published by the Opposition, 10 November, that spoke of
ongoing creation of a new town near Pyinmana.

A number of construction firms including Asia World of former druglord Law
Hsinghan, Olympic of U Aik Htun and Htoo of Quartermaster General Lt-Gen
Tin Aung Myint Oo are involved in the project, it says. Construction of
the military installations on the other hand are being handled by the
Army's engineering corps.

Pyinmana is located roughly halfway between Rangoon and Mandalay further
north and some 50 miles southwest of Panglawng, a town in Shan State's
southwestern rim. A motor road had already been built to connect Pyinmana
with the railroad in Panglawng that continues to Taunggyi, Shan capital,
82 miles further on.

Pyinmana is known by Shans as Piang-mark-na, Plain of Myrobalan Fruit
(terminalia bellerica). It has been an important way station for Shan
bullock caravans travelling between the Shan hills and Rangoon centuries
earlier.

____________________________________
ON THE BORDER

November 20, Agence France Presse
Three bodies found in Myanmar refugee camp in Bangladesh

Dhaka: Three bodies have been recovered from a camp for Myanmar refugees
in southeastern Bangladesh after a violent clash between residents and
police left more than 50 people injured, police said Saturday.

Fighting broke out after police raided the camp in southeastern Cox's
Bazar in search of criminals, district intelligence officer Balaiet
Hossain told AFP.

"On Thursday there was a violent clash between the refugees and police and
fire was exchanged in that incident -- those people might have died in the
crossfire," Hossain said.

At least 50 people were injured in the clash, among them a local
magistrate and five police, he said.

About 35 refugees have been arrested in connection with the skirmish,
Hossain added.

As many as 250,000 Muslim refugees from Myanmar, locally known as
"Rohingyas", took shelter in Muslim-majority Bangladesh during the 1990s.

They accused Yangon's military government of persecuting them in
Buddhist-majority Myanmar.

The governments of Myanmar and Bangladesh signed an agreement on April 28,
1992 under which Dhaka was to repatriate all refugees within six months
beginning in the May of that year.

While most refugees have been sent home since then, some 20,000 are living
in two refugee camps in Cox's Bazar -- and many are refusing to return to
their homeland.

The violence Thursday was sparked by refugees protesting against
repatriation during the police operation, Hossain said.

"Those refugees started throwing bricks and beat the camp-in-charge. After
they were asked to stop their meeting and finally they started shooting
when police tried to pacify them," he added.

"Police resorted to gunfire in self-defence."

_____________________________________

November 21, Network Media Group
Burma's media network launches new news website

The network of border based media groups from Burma, Burma News
International (BNI), today launched a news website.

Nai Chan Mon, duty editor of BNI said, "We launch the website today.
Website can be read in both English and Burmese".

As BNI is the network of nine Burmese border based media groups, people do
not need to visit several websites to learn news on Burma. People can now
visit one website and see all the news from nine different news group,
said Nai Chan Mon.

"As the website gathers the news from the media groups based on Thai-Burma
border, India border and Bangladesh border, there are more variety of news
on our website. Then, as BNI includes ethnic media groups, one can see the
news from different areas in Burma," said Nai Chan Mon.

BNI is organizing training and sharing information among the member groups
so that the news from BNI is to reach the international standard, said the
 duty editor of BNI.

Burma News International (BNI) was formed in 2003 with the initiation of
the media groups based in India and Bangladesh. Later in two years, other
five news groups based on Thai-Burma border joined the network. BNI
consists of ethnic media groups from Chin, Arakan, "Rohinger", Mon and
Shan  as well as non-ethnic based media groups such as Mizzima News and
Network  Media Group.

BNI's new news website can be visited at www.bnionline.net

_____________________________________
DRUGS

November 22, Thai Press Reports
Thailand to join Asean NGOs' anti-drugs meeting in Myanmar

Thai non-governmental organizations (NGOs) will join their counterparts
from other member countries of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations
(ASEAN) in taking part in a regional workshop on anti-drugs early next
month.

The workshop, organized by the Myanmar Anti-Narcotics Association (MANA)
and the Central Committee for Drug Abuse Control, is scheduled to be held
in the Myanmar capital city of Rangoon on 4-6 December.

The workshop will focus on drug prevention in the region through art and
sport programmes.

Measures on anti-smoking and the prevention of alcohol abuse will also be
discussed at the three-day workshop.

_____________________________________
BUSINESS

November 21, The Observer
Protests mount as Burmese imports surge - Nick Mathiason

The quantity of goods imported into Britain from the military dictatorship
of Burma has risen sharply, prompting deep concern from MPs and
campaigners.

The government has disclosed that in the first six months of this year
£43.2 million of goods came into the UK from one of the world's most
corrupt regimes, responsible for widespread use of forced labour, and a
country where 1.5 million people have been forced from their land.

In 1998, the UK imported just £17.8m of goods from Burma. In 2003, the
figure was £62m. Given this year's figures, it is clear imports are rising
despite last year's Commons statement by Tony Blair saying companies
should not trade with Burma.

Pressure is mounting for Customs & Excise to disclose the companies which
are trading with Burma. The government faces an imminent legal challenge,
forcing it to do so on public interest grounds. Norway, the United States
and Canada currently disclose this information.

'The government says "Don't trade with Burma," but it's being ignored,'
said Mark Farmaner, media and campaigns officer at Burma Campaign UK.
'It's refusing to impose sanctions and by not naming companies importing
into the UK, it is not giving the public the ability to choose whether it
buys Burmese products.'

In just six months this year, £35m of Burmese clothes were imported into
the UK. Dan Rees, director of the Ethical Trading Initiative, said: 'The
regime does not just turn a blind eye to labour rights abuses, it
encourages slavery in order to gain a competitive advantage. Brands should
not be sourcing from Burma.'

Fears are growing that the Burmese junta is turning even more hardline. A
power struggle last month saw the removal of prime minister Khin Nyunt,
considered to be a 'moderate'.

The country's pro-democracy leader, Aung San Suu Kyi, has just started her
10th year in jail. Calls for effective economic sanctions against the
regime have been ignored by both Asian and western governments.

Within three years, the junta will see increased revenues from oil and gas
projects in partnership with Thai and French companies.

_____________________________________
REGIONAL

November 22, Agence France Presse
Economic integration, Thailand, Myanmar to dominate ASEAN summit - Martin
Abbugao

Vientiane: Accelerating regional economic integration, unrest in Thailand,
terrorism and Myanmar's political problems are expected to dominate the
annual summit of Southeast Asian leaders in Laos.

Senior Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) officials will kick
off talks in the Laotian capital of Vientiane on Wednesday, followed by a
gathering of their foreign ministers on Saturday and a two-day leaders'
summit from November 29.

Southeast Asian governent officials who will attend the summit told AFP
that a push to accelerate a 2020 timetable for ASEAN to establish a
European Union-style single market would be a key topic of discussion for
the leaders.

Singapore Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong and Thai Prime Minister Thaksin
Shinawatra are leading the call for an earlier deadline, saying 2020 is
too far away, although the less developed ASEAN nations are more
reluctant.

The ASEAN leaders will be joined at their summit by their counterparts
from China, Japan, South Korea, India, Australia and New Zealand, as the
Southeast Asian bloc seeks to pursue closer economic ties throughout the
Asia-Pacific.

"The Vientiane summit will put across ASEAN's drive to remain focused on
promoting ASEAN's economic integration and on building common economic
space within East Asia," ASEAN Secretariat spokesman M.C. Abad told AFP.

ASEAN is already negotiating separate free-trade agreements with China,
Japan and India to be completed within 10 years, and South Korea, which
has dithered on such a pact, also now wants to hitch onto the bandwagon.

South Korea is expected to sign a comprehensive cooperation partnership
joint declaration with ASEAN to establish a free trade area within 10
years or earlier, according to a Southeast Asian source who asked not to
be named.

ASEAN is also expected to discuss with Australia and New Zealand plans to
elevate their current "closer economic partnership" into a free-trade pact
that would be implemented within 10 years, added the source.

The accord is important because the combined gross domestic product of
Australia and New Zealand is estimated at 1.3 trillion US dollars, not far
off China's 1.4 trillion dollars, he said.

To speed up economic integration within ASEAN itself, the leaders are
expected to endorse an agreement reached by their finance ministers in
September to remove trade barriers in 11 priority sectors.

These are: air travel, auto, electronics, fisheries, agro-based products,
healthcare, information and communications technology, rubber, textiles
and clothing, tourism and wood products.

Concrete developments are also expected in the ASEAN-China free trade
accord currently under negotiations, with ASEAN and Chinese leaders
expected to sign an agreement to liberalise trade in goods.

This is the first component in the negotiating process leading to an
overall pact, the other chapter being opening up the services sector.

The ASEAN-China FTA promises to create the world's biggest free-trade bloc
of nearly two billion people.

While officially not on the agenda, the violence in Thailand's restive
southern Muslim provinces that has left nearly 550 people dead this year
is also expected to be raised.

Analysts expect Bangkok to escape rebuke due to ASEAN's policy of
non-interference in members' internal affairs, although Thaksin may feel
obliged to explain to his counterparts the problems in the south.

"It is not on the agenda. But there is a practice in ASEAN to give
voluntary briefings on issues of interest to most members," the ASEAN
source said.

Myanmar's military rule will also undoubtedly be a topic of discussion,
following last month's leadership shake-up that saw prime minister Khin
Nyunt placed under house arrest and replaced by Lieutenant General Soe
Win.

With Soe Win regarded as a military hardliner, his briefings to his ASEAN
counterparts on Myanmar's so-called "roadmap for democracy" will be
eagerly awaited.

"He and his foreign minister will face some hard questions, for sure," a
senior Southeast Asian diplomat said.

Terrorism will also be a key talking point, with ASEAN and Japan expected
to adopt a joint declaration for cooperation in counter-terrorism.

The declaration will cover exchange of information on the activities of
terrorist groups and law enforcement cooperation, including through
extradition and mutual assistance in prosecution of terrorists, an ASEAN
source said.

ASEAN groups Brunei, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, the
Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam.

_____________________________________

November 21, Associated Press
Malaysia tells Myanmar to show "tangible" proof it's serious about
democracy - Jasbant Singh

Kuala Lumpur: Malaysia says military-ruled Myanmar should show "tangible"
proof it is moving toward democracy to reassure an increasingly skeptical
and frustrated international community.

If Myanmar does not address the problem, "then not only Myanmar is going
to be affected, but the credibility and integrity of ASEAN as a whole is
going to be affected," Foreign Minister Syed Hamid Albar told The
Associated Press late Sunday.

He was speaking ahead of a leaders' summit of the 10 countries of the
Association of Southeast Asian Nations, or ASEAN, to be held next Monday
and Tuesday in the Laotian capital, Vientiane. It will be preceded by a
meeting of ASEAN foreign ministers.

Myanmar, whose unfulfilled promises to allow democracy are now largely
dismissed as lies by the West and some Asian countries, has become an
embarrassment for ASEAN's other members - Brunei, Cambodia, Indonesia,
Laos, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam.

"ASEAN will always defend its fellow members. But they (Myanmar) must do
justice to their fellow members ... in order to find the best way for us
to convince the international community that Myanmar is moving on the
right track," he said. "There must be something tangible," he said.

Myanmar's junta, which came to power in 1988 after crushing a
pro-democracy movement, last week released nearly 4,000 prisoners,
including many members of opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi's party.

But Suu Kyi remains under house arrest, and the release seemed more an
attempt to discredit former Prime Minister Khin Nyunt, whose intelligence
ministry is said to have jailed the detainees. Khin Nyunt was fired last
month for alleged corruption and is in custody.

Also, referring to the festering discontent among neighboring Thailand's
minority Muslims, Syed Hamid said Thai authorities should not use
excessive force to control an Islamic insurgency that many fear will
become a breeding ground for Islamic terrorism.

Violence between Islamic insurgents and security forces has killed more
than 500 people have been killed this year in southern Thailand near
Malaysia.

The Thai government has been criticized for using strong-arm tactics on
civilians and militants, especially after 85 people in military custody in
the south on Oct. 25.

Syed Hamid said he believed Thailand will be able to restore peace in the
south.

But any use of excessive force "is going to be counterproductive ... in
finding a durable solution," he said.

He added that ASEAN should discuss problems with regional implications
openly.

"We cannot just say we shouldn't discuss because it is domestic or
national," he said. "We must be able to help each other in order to create
a better region for ourselves."

_____________________________________
INTERNATIONAL

November 19, Agence France Presse
US sniffs at Myanmar prisoner release, demands freedom for all political
detainees

Washington: The United States on Friday pronounced itself unimpressed by
this week's mass release of nearly 4,000 prisoners from jails in
military-run Myanmar and demanded immediate freedom for all political
detainees, including opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi.

The State Department said Washington's concerns about the political
situation in Myanmar, formerly Burma, could not begin to be assuaged until
Aung San Suu Kyi, who lives under house arrest, her deputy, Tin Oo, and
other leaders of the National League for Democracy are free.

"We've seen the reports that several thousand prisoners, including some
that have been held for their political beliefs, have been released from
Burmese prisons," deputy spokesman Adam Ereli said.

"They do not, obviously, include Aung San Suu Kyi, U Tin Oo and other
leading political dissidents," he told reporters. "We call upon the
Burmese authorities to release these individuals and all political
prisoners immediately and unconditionally."

Myamnmar's ruling junta on Thursday ordered the mass release of 3,937
prisoners whom it said may have been wrongfully jailed by a military
intelligence unit disbanded in the wake of a top-level power struggle in
the country.

Scores of male and female detainees were seen trickling out of Yangon's
notorious Insein prison on Friday and NLD sources said several senior
opposition figures were among those released.

Amnesty International in its 2004 report said more than 1,350 political
prisoners remained imprisoned in Myanmar. Yangon has never admitted to
holding political prisoners but under international pressure it freed some
detainees in in 2002 and 2003 for "humanitarian" reasons.

The military has ruled Myanmar since 1962 despite the NLD winning a
landslide election in 1990.

_____________________________________

November 21, Agence France Presse
Foreign pressure may have prompted Myanmar junta to free some foes:
analysts - Michael Mathes

Bangkok: As Myanmar's pro-democracy movement digests the recent release of
several top political dissidents from prison, analysts ponder whether it
was foreign pressure that forced the military junta into conceding the
gesture.

On Thursday the government ordered the shock release of nearly 4,000
prisoners who it admitted may have been wrongly jailed by a military
intelligence unit headed by now-ousted pragmatist prime minister Khin
Nyunt.

It released the nation's number two political dissident, 1980s student
protest leader Min Ko Naing, at least three opposition parliamentarians
and two dozen other pro-democracy figures. More are expected to follow as
jail cells are emptied and reports trickle in about who has been freed.

A Western diplomat called the releases "an overture to the international
community which has become more and more stern" in its approach to the
junta.

Some analysts and observers say the ruling generals were trying to stave
off opprobrium ahead of this month's summit of Southeast Asian leaders,
and deepening international sanctions which they said could ultimately
sink the longstanding regime.

Debbie Stothard, of regional pressure group Altsean Burma, labeled the
releases "extremely significant" in that they signalled Yangon may be
bowing to pressure from beyond its borders.

"This was very clearly a response to regional pressure on the regime,
particularly from China and Indonesia, which quietly made their concerns
known to the generals after Khin Nyunt was ousted," Stothard told AFP.

Khin Nyunt was effectively sacked from his post last month, placed under
house arrest on corruption allegations and replaced by a hardline general
aligned with junta supremo Senior General Than Shwe.

The changes appeared to mark a shift towards a more hardline stance and
was a blow to activists seeking the release of Aung San Suu Kyi, who has
been languishing under house arrest since May last year.

Before his sacking, Khin Nyunt wanted to negotiate with the leader of the
National League for Democracy (NLD) and Nobel peace prize winner. But Than
Shwe reputedly even refuses to utter her name.

Now his isolated government has sought to defuse swelling international
criticism of its human rights record and concern that the junta has taken
virtually no steps towards democratic reforms ahead of the upcoming summit
of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN).

Myanmar, which joined the grouping in 1997, is due to assume its rotating
presidency in 2006. There are movements to try and disqualify Yangon from
the role.

"ASEAN and neighbours India and China have been worried about the present
situation, and the junta needed to show some signal they were on the
democratic trend," said Zin Linn, a former Myanmar political prisoner and
now the Thai-based information director for the National Coalition
Government of the Union of Burma.

"There may have been some suggestions to them that they should go along
with democratic reforms," he said.

Earlier this month Indonesian Foreign Minister Hassan Wirayuda became the
first senior foreign dignitary to visit Yangon since the leadership
upheaval, meeting with the new premier, Lieutenant General Soe Win.

Wirayuda had said the prospects for Aung San Suu Kyi's freedom looked
"even slimmer" under the new leadership.

ASEAN has also warned Yangon it could be a liability for the 10-member
bloc as it strives to forge vital trading pacts.

China, Myanmar's most important ally and trading partner, and ASEAN have
plans to establish a free trade area (FTA) by 2010, which will create the
third largest FTA worldwide, with a population of more than 1.7 billion.

The prisoner releases could also be intended to thwart a dire economic
development threatened recently by the International Labour Organisation
(ILO).

The ILO this month warned it was ready to revive punitive sanctions
against Myanmar after the agency concluded that the junta had shown little
political will to stop forced labour.

"They have been under siege, and they have to do something to win back
some ground and ease internal and regional pressure," Stothard said.

The latest prison releases have encouraged NLD spokesman U Lwin, who said
they boosted chances for reigniting UN-brokered national reconciliation
talks which were secretly launched between Aung San Suu Kyi and Khin Nyunt
but collapsed last year.

Not everyone is hopeful that the prison releases have initiated a chain of
events that would ultimately lead to her freedom or greater
democratisation.

"This government has never cowed down to any international pressure,
otherwise they would have released Aung San Suu Kyi a long time ago," said
one analyst in Yangon.