BurmaNet News February 25, 2005

[Editor]

February 25, 2005 Issue # 2663

INSIDE BURMA
Irrawaddy: No regime response yet to ceasefire groups’ demands
AFP: Myanmar general praises convention, but says nothing of talks

REGIONAL
Mizzima: Dhaka, Rangoon to set up trade commission

INTERNATIONAL
VOA: Burmese opposition says military falls short in effort to draft
constitution
Upstream: Gunning for French giant over Burma

OPINION / OTHER
Irrawaddy: Disciplining democracy
Irrawaddy: Tough at the top

______________________________________
INSIDE BURMA

February 25, Irrawaddy
No regime response yet to ceasefire groups’ demands

Ethnic ceasefire groups said Friday they were still waiting for a regime
response to their joint proposal for changes to the National Convention’s
agenda.

The six ceasefire groups tabled seven demands days before the National
Convention reconvened on February 17. They included a demand for a free
discussion of the Convention’s “sixth objective,” which seeks to guarantee
“military participation in the future state.”

No response to the demands has yet been received from the regime,
according to James Lum Dau, of the Kachin Independence Organization, or
KIO, on Friday.

The ceasefire groups also want the National Convention to change its
requirement of consensus at panel sessions and urge the participation of
different political movements. Armed groups should have observer status,
they say.

Apart from the KIO, the ethnic ceasefire groups making the proposals are
the New Mon State Party, or NMSP, the Shan State Army (North), or SSA-N,
the Shan State National Army, or SSNA, the Kayan New Land Party, or KNLP,
and the Karenni State Nationalities People’s Liberation Front, or KNPLF.

The SSA-N and the SSNA, which together comprise the Shan State Peace
Council, or SSPC, are boycotting the National Convention, following the
arrest of Maj-Gen Sao Hso Ten, SSPC president. The regime has ignored
appeals for his release, although Sao Khai Hpa, vice-chairman of the SSA-N
is still negotiating the issue with the junta.

Maj-Gen Sao Hso Ten was arrested by the military regime after attending a
meeting in Taunggyi, capital of southern Shan State, in early February.
According to Shan sources, the SSA-N and SSNA have their troops in
northern Shan State on alert.

The National Convention, which is charged with drawing up a new
constitution, is being held in Nyaung Hnapin, Hmawbi Township, about 40 km
from Rangoon. The government says 1,075 of 1,081 invited delegates are
attending. They include representatives of armed ethnic groups which
signed ceasefire agreements with the military government after 1989.

____________________________________

February 25, Agence France Presse
Myanmar general praises convention, but says nothing of talks

Myanmar's military rulers Friday praised the "active role" of their
hand-picked delegates to constitutional talks, but gave few details of the
internationally condemned convention that resumed last week.

Unlike the last session of the national convention, also held at an
isolated compound outside Yangon, the current round of talks features
prominently in state media, where it has played second only to the fawning
daily coverage of top generals.

"The people are now pleased as they learn through the media that the
delegates are playing an active role in the national convention and they
are doing so with peace of mind," said Lieutenant General Thein Sein, who
is first secretary of the government, known as the State Peace and
Development Council, in the state-run New Light of Myanmar.

"The delegates are to be armed with perseverance, diligence and
nationalist fervour and correct sense," he said, warning that unspecified
"internal and external destructive elements" wanted to derail the talks.

Thein Sein added that the military has seen to the delegates' every need
so they could concentrate on their work.

Those "needs" include top-rate medical facilities, a golf course and a
theatre at the convention site, known as Nyaunghnapin camp, where more
than 1,000 delegates are confined until the end of the session, expected
in mid-April.

One delegate said he was using the National Convention to get much-needed
dental work.

"I shall be going home with a brand-new set of teeth and a sound knowledge
of the game of golf at least ... all with the compliments of the convenor"
Thein Sein told AFP.

The European Union, the United Nations and the United States have
condemned the convention, which has been boycotted by the leading
opposition party, Nobel peace laureate Aung San Suu Kyi's National League
for Democracy.

She and the party's vice chairman are under house arrest, and the party
has refused to join the talks until they are released.

The convention aims at drafting a constitution to be put to vote as part
of the junta's "road map" to democracy.
_____________________________________
REGIONAL

February 25, Mizzima News
Dhaka, Rangoon to set up trade commission

Bangladesh and Burma agreed to set up a joint commission to strengthen
trade and economic between two countries.

According Bangladesh Foreign Secretary Shamsher Mobin Chowdhury, the
decision come after an hour long meeting between visiting Burmese Foreign
Minister Nyan Win and his Bangladesh counterpart in Dhaka on Thursday.

Burmese minister also called on the Bangladesh Prime Minister, Begum
Khaleda Zia and invited her to visit Burma.

" And Begum Zia has accepted the invitation. The date and time would be
finalized after diplomatic discussion," Mr. Chowdhury said.

Nyan Win had arrived in Dhaka on February 24 mornings on a three-day
official visit to Bangladesh.
Two ministers planned to discuss on direct highway link between Dhaka and
Rangoon and the repatriation of Burmese refugees.

Reportedly, Bangladesh wanted to speed up the repatriation of about 19,000
Burmese Muslim refugees.
_____________________________________
INTERNATIONAL

February 25, Voice of America
Burmese opposition says military falls short in effort to draft constitution

Exiled Burmese pro-democracy leaders say the country's efforts to draft a
national constitution are falling far short of the military government's
stated goal of fostering genuine democracy. In Washington Wednesday, the
Voice of America hosted a panel discussion of Burma's, also called
Myanmar's, constitutional process, which is moving forward without the
participation of major opposition groups.

At last week's reconvening of Burma's constitutional convention outside
Rangoon, the junta's first secretary, Lieutenant General Thein Sein,
sounded like a democrat.
"Our government has several objectives, including the establishment of a
genuine multi-party democratic system, and this convention is designed to
further that objective," says the Lieutenant General.

But critics say a huge gulf exists between the general's words and Burma's
current political reality. David Steinberg directs Asian studies at
Georgetown University in Washington. "The military has conducted this
constitutional convention in a manner which they have heavily scripted.
They have controlled the process, they have controlled debate in the past,
and they will [tolerate] no interference form other people, including
opposition groups, in determining what the constitution might look like,"
says Mr. Steinberg.

The junta handpicked most of the delegates to the convention, which was
boycotted by two major opposition parties. One party, the National League
for Democracy, is protesting the continued house arrest of its leader,
Aung San Suu Kyi, as well as a deputy. United Nations Secretary General
Kofi Annan has said the absence of Aung San Suu Kyi and other opposition
leaders erodes the convention's credibility in the eyes of the
international community.

Those words were echoed by Sein Win, leader of the exiled National
Coalition of Government of the Union of Burma, who says the constitutional
exercise, as it is currently being carried out, will not move Burma
forward.

"This process will not give us, Burma and the people, any opportunity for
bettering their lives. The suffering will go on, problems will go on,
because the constitution and this process is meant to legitimize their
[the military's] rule," says Sien Win.

Keith Luse, an aide to Senator Richard Lugar, Chairman of the U.S. Senate
Foreign Relations Committee, says Aung San Suu Kyi will not be forgotten
by the international community, and that her absence will overshadow
anything Burma's military junta attempts to do. "Many of her colleagues
and other democracy leaders are still under arrest or have been newly
arrested. The personal security detail of Aung San Suu Kyi has been
removed. Why is this? What are her circumstances now? What is her health?
What is her personal condition? These are very important questions that
will not go away simply by holding a national convention," says Mr. Luse.

Georgetown University professor David Steinberg says Burma's opposition
groups face a dilemma: whether to take part in a flawed constitutional
exercise in hopes of swaying the process in some way, or to stand on the
sidelines.

"It is, in a way, a no-win situation either way, it seems to me. And that
is what makes it so sad," says Mr. Steinberg.

Burma has lacked a constitution since the military seized power in 1988.
The junta hopes to have a democratic constitution in place by 2006, when
Burma is to assume chairmanship of the Association of Southeast Asian
Nations (ASEAN). But Lieutenant General Thein Sein has said that order and
stability are essential prerequisites to a successful and lasting
democracy in the historically fragmented and fractious nation.

_____________________________________

February 25, Upstream
Gunning for French giant over Burma—Christopher Hopson

Campaigners crank up pressure on oil companies over ties with regime
linked with human rights abuses and imprisonment of opposition politicians

French major Total has been accused by an international coalition
comprising more than 40 organisations in 18 countries of playing a crucial
role in propping up Burma's brutal military dictatorship with up to $450
million a year of revenues flowing from the Yadana gas field.

In a hard-hitting report, called "Totalitarian Oil Total Oil: Fuelling the
oppression in Burma", and marking the start of a major international
campaign, the Paris-based oil giant is alleged to have used its influence
over French foreign policy to protect its interests in the country.

John Jackson, director of the Burma Campaign UK, says Total has done more
than any other company to help prop up the regime in Burma. "The French
government is protecting Total's interests in Burma by blocking tougher
European Union sanctions against the dictatorship," he says.

Total's influence on the French government is claimed by the groups to
ensure an EU policy that is deviod of any serious sanction against Burma's
much-discredited dictators.

Last year, France is alleged to have vetoed a proposed EU ban on new
investment in Burma's oil and gas sector in order to protect Total's
investment in the country. The US banned new investment in 1997. "The
consequence of Total's Burma operation is that the regime knows it is safe
from any tough EU action," says Jackson.

Total, meanwhile, is standing its ground. The French supermajor tells
Upstream that, together with many international organisations and
especially those working in Burma, it believes sanctions against the
country and the pressure for withdrawal of foreign investors is not the
solution.

"It is our view that such measures would only increase suffering while
having no real impact on the political debate," says Total spokesman
Philip Gateau.

"The only victims would be the country's population. We believe that Burma
needs more openness, more dialogue and more commitment."

The Yadana project is estimated by analysts to earn the regime between
$200 million and $450 million in revenues per year, but these figures
remain unconfirmed. Due to contract confidentiality, Gateau declins to
reveal any specifics on revenues being earned by the military regime from
Yadana, but he claims it represents a "really marginal" contribution to
the state coffers.

The groups claim the Yadana pipeline has been closely associated with
serious human rights abuses, including forced labour, relocation,
beatings, torture, rape and the use of civilians as human mine sweepers.

The groups also point out that revenues from the Yadana project have been
associated with weapons purchases by the military. In particular, they
point to the acquisition of 10 Russian MIG fighter jets and helicopters.
Total insists that since the start of its operations in Burma it has
always maintained extreme vigilance to guarantee that international law,
human rights and the company's own code of conduct have always been
respected in the area of the Yadana pipeline.

"To do this, Total has acted with conviction and efficiency to eradicate
all forms of forced labour in the area where it operates, and has
regularly expressed concerns about unlawful practices to the Burmese
authorities. I would remind you that forced labour is unlawful in Burma,"
says Gateau.

Critics, however, are unimpressed and are gearing up for a full assault on
the French oil giant. Jackson says the groups plan to make the Total brand
very much linked in the public's mind with the dictatorship.

"We are calling for them to get out. It would be the biggest blow so far
to business confidence in the country if they were to do so," he claims.
The groups aim to make the new campaign against Total dwarf the scale of
previous campaigns against such companies as Premier Oil, PepsiCo,
Heineken, British American Tobacco, and Triumph International, which have
all been forced to pull out the country.

"We will be lobbying Total shareholders, European governments and taking
high-profile actions," warns Jackson.

Aung San Suu Kyi, leader of Burma's democracy movement and Nobel Peace
Prize winner, has repeatedly called on companies such as Total to leave
Burma. "Total has become the main supporter of the Burmese military
regime," she has said.

She recently began her 10th year under house arrest, is allowed no
visitors, her phone line has been cut and her mail is intercepted. At
present, there appears to be no prospect of her being released and fear is
growing for her safety.

Jackson says in France there is a significant body of opinion developing
calling on Total to leave Burma. "We have got a significant amount of
evidence that Total had knowledge of human rights abuses and that they
have compensated the victims of forced labour.

"We also believe that Total has paid, via its contract with MOGE, for the
Burmese army to offer security protection in the general area of the
Yadana pipeline. The military just feeds off the local population just a
few kilometres away from the line," he claims.

Gateau, however, denies that Total has any arrangement with MOGE regarding
the security of the Yadana pipeline.

"The pipeline is buried and we do not employ the army to protect something
for us. We have two metering stations on the line that are protected by a
fence and we use our own security guards," he adds.

Jackson says investors should be concerned over the recent court cases
taken by Burmese groups against Total in Belgium and France that could
prove costly for the company.

Gateau insists Total is "really confident" about the outcome of the two
legal cases taken against it in Belgium and France. "With respect to our
reputation, we believe we are doing a lot of good things for Burma."

Opponents see it differently. "For 15 years, Total has argued for
constructive engagement," Jackson complains. "The problem is that its
investments do not trickle down to the population, but instead go to the
regime, which just increases its military capacity and oppression."
Total counters that it has spent about $12 million on socio-economic
programmes in the area of the Yadana pipeline since 1995. It says to date
about 45,000 people living in the area of the pipeline have taken
advantage of these programmes.

"Yes, we have made every effort to compensate when we have come across any
cases of forced relocation or forced labour," Gateau says.

Paul Monaghan, head of sustainable development at Co-operative Financial
Services, says: "There are many oppressive regimes around the world.
However, Burma presents a combination of circumstances that make a
particularly compelling case for action.

"The Co-operative Bank and Co-operative Insurance Society look forward to
a progressive response from Total and others involved in Burma."

_____________________________________
OPINION / OTHER

February 25, Irrawaddy
Disciplining democracy— Aung Naing Oo

So-called democracy under authoritarian regimes has had many colorful
names. Chile had “protected democracy.” In Suharto’s Indonesia, it was
“guided democracy.” In Libya, it was called “managed democracy.” In Burma,
under Ne Win it was labeled “democratic socialism” under one-party rule.

As democracies in all but name, all failed miserably. But appalling
polities continue to keep up the pretence. Burma is a case in point.
Sooner or later, the Burmese will experience “disciplined democracy”—the
generals’ new brand of the ideology.

If the junta has its way, the first step of its “road map to
democracy”—the current session of the off-on National Convention to draw
up a new constitution—may finish its work by year’s end. That means Burma
will have a new constitution to succeed the one suspended after the failed
democratic upheaval in 1988.

What would it mean? Would the country have a new form of democracy,
perhaps with a general election, before a Rangoon-chaired Association of
Southeast Asian Nations, or Asean, summit in November 2006? Let’s see.

For a start, any election would be for only 75% of parliament. The rest
would be hand-picked by the military, which guarantees itself a dominant
role in a new government anyway. Despite constitutional guarantees for
some forms of rights and freedoms we know about, there will still be no
free press, and in reality there will be no rule of law or freedom from
political prosecution. Lawmakers will also find it very hard to amend the
constitution or censure the government.

According to Thein Oo, a lawyer and exiled member of parliament, from what
is already known about the new constitution, women, children, workers,
farmers and youth will enjoy some basic rights for the first time in more
than 40 years.

Ethnic minorities will also enjoy some form of self-determination in their
own self-administered regions with state assemblies. Theoretically, ethnic
groups will have a say in their own affairs for the first time since
independence in 1948.

The constitution includes an article that allows judicial review. “Even
the 1947 constitution lacks such a provision,” said Thein Oo. With at
least some representation in a parliament previously controlled completely
by the military, Burmese civilians will have a voice in public affairs.

The bad news is that all these freedoms and rights will be “disciplined.”
The armed forces chief of staff will have more political power than the
elected president, who will also be required to be from the military. The
military will be allowed to manage its own affairs, including its budget.

Worse, the constitution will not stipulate elections for local
governments. Instead, the military will appoint officials who are likely
to be both active and ex-military men. This will surely hamper any move
towards grassroots democracy.

There will also be no “constitutional codes,” according to Hkun Okker, a
constitutional expert who is General Secretary of the opposition National
Democratic Front. That means there are no clear, definitive words for
constitutional rights and principles. “This leaves such clauses open to
manipulative interpretation by the military,” he pointed out.

Repressive state laws, such as the 1950 Emergency Provisions Act and the
1975 State Protection Law are likely to remain. The laws give the state
all-embracing powers.

In 1999, the exiled Burma Lawyer Council accused the regime of attempting
to retain “an authoritarian centralist government with very few checks and
balances” through the new constitution. Indeed, this appears to be what
the Burmese can expect:  “democracy,” yes—but with an even larger dose of
“discipline.”

All laws will be subject to broad interpretation by the military. In other
words, whatever “democracy” emerges will only be tolerated as long as it
doesn’t interfere with what the military regards as its prerogatives. For
Burmese, democracy will remain an enduring dream.

Aung Naing Oo is a research associate with Washington-based The Burma Fund.

_____________________________________

February 25, Irrawaddy
Tough at the top—Shawn L. Nance

Prime Minister Soe Win may follow predecessor Khin Nyunt into the wilderness

While reported differences between the Burmese regime’s top two leaders,
Snr-Gen Than Shwe and Dep Snr-Gen Maung Aye, remain the focus of
speculation in Rangoon, the fate of Prime Minister Lt-Gen Soe Win is also
intriguing. Rumors also abound about what exactly is happening to his
disgraced predecessor, Gen Khin Nyunt.

Soe Win’s unexplained disappearance for more than two weeks in January,
and his low-key public image since are also fodder for tea-shop gossip. An
earlier story had it that he had either been sacked or killed during an
early-February gunfight at the War Office. BBC (Burmese Service) even
reported military sources as saying the junta had already chosen his
successor. Although Soe Win publicly resurfaced in late January, dramatic
rumors about him, as well as his junta colleagues, persist.

Sources close to the junta say that while most of the gossip is unfounded,
Soe Win  is in “serious trouble” with the regime’s Number One, Than Shwe.
He is also thought to be at odds with Maung Aye. This is supposed to have
begun in May 2003, when Soe Win ordered a deadly attack on opposition
leader Aung San Suu Kyi and her supporters in Depayin, Sagaing Division.

He kept both Maung Aye and Khin Nyunt in the dark about plans for the
attack, said a Western diplomat in Rangoon. A European diplomat believed
Khin Nyunt, also military intelligence chief at the time, was only
informed the afternoon before the bloody incident, and was deeply
concerned.

For now, Soe Win remains the country’s prime minister and heads several
national committees. He has only barely reemerged in the state-run media,
attending a graduation ceremony in Rangoon in late January, and
congratulating Thai Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra on his reelection in
early February.

A journalist in Rangoon, however, says this is only a token gesture on the
junta’s part to present an image of stability. His picture has not run for
weeks in the regime’s mouthpiece, New Light of Myanmar. “There’s no smoke
without fire,” commented the European diplomat.

Meanwhile, Soe Win’s predecessor is a persistent source of rumors. Khin
Nyunt lost both his positions when he was arrested in Mandalay last
October. It is believed his MI had grown too powerful for Than Shwe’s
comfort, and it was quickly dismantled.

It is not even certain where Khin Nyunt is being held. One rumor has him
being “brainwashed” in Yemon military camp, in Rangoon’s outskirts.
Another has him in a military base near Putao, in Kachin State, known for
its inhumane treatment of political prisoners—tortured with the same
methods he devised for his victims.
Or he could be under house arrest with his wife. She was also rumored to
have been either shot while resisting arrest, or killing herself. Most
think she is fine. Khin Nyunt’s son, Ye Naing Win, who headed Burma’s
largest internet service, Bagan Cybertech, and provided satellite feeds,
is under detention and awaiting trial.

As for the scores of intelligence agents also arrested, one of the more
far-fetched rumors, according to a Rangoon businessman, has it that they
are being injected with a serum which will eventually turn them insane
before dying.

“Remember Saw Maung?” the businessman asks. Snr-Gen Saw Maung set up the
current ruling State Law and Order Restoration Council in 1988. Three
years later, he publicly talked of his imminent death and of sightings of
Jesus in Tibet. No longer mentally fit to rule, he was replaced by Than
Shwe in April 1992.

Now, as a journalist puts it, it’s like Khin Nyunt has been “chopped into
four pieces.” These are: Maj-Gen Myint Shwe, who has taken control of
intelligence duties, handing responsibility to the police special branch
under the Ministry of Home Affairs; Lt-Gen Thein Sein, chairman of the
National Convention, tasked with drafting a new constitution; Gen Thura
Shwe Mann, the army chief of staff who is widely tipped to become the
country’s next army chief or prime minister; and Soe Win. Unlike Soe Win,
the other three have appeared almost daily in the New Light of Myanmar.

Maybe the outcome of the swirling morass of speculation is in the stars.
In Burma, prophecies carry a lot of weight. And these have been busy times
for the country’s soothsayers. One popular astrologer in downtown Rangoon
predicts “big changes” in April, as he strokes his beard and draws
pensively on a cigarette.

Looking around the room, perhaps to make sure nobody can hear him, he
adds: “And much bloodshed.”