BurmaNet News, March 26-28, 2005

[Editor]

March 26-28, 2005 Issue # 2684


INSIDE BURMA
Irrawaddy: The disciplined road ahead
SHAN: Convention rep: No law in Burma
Mizzima: Bomb scare mounts security cover in Rangoon hotels

ON THE BORDER
Kaowao News: Three Pagodas Pass under alert
AP: Border casinos feel pain of Chinese gambling crackdown

REGIONAL
AFP: Singapore's PM Lee to visit Cambodia, Myanmar and Laos
AFP: Thailand declines to push Myanmar on reforms
Bangkok Post: KL ups the ante on Rangoon
Bangkok Post: Laos will listen to Rangoon before deciding

INTERNATIONAL
AFP: Independent report urges EU to overhaul Myanmar ties

OPINION / OTHER
Straits Times (Singapore): Bells are beginning to toll for Yangon

______________________________________
INSIDE BURMA

March 28, Irrawaddy
The disciplined road ahead - Ko Jay

Burma’s junta leader and head of the armed forces Snr-Gen Than Shwe vowed
on Sunday that the country would move towards democracy with “fully
institutionalized discipline.” The remarks were made during his speech
marking Burma’s 60th Armed Forces Day in Rangoon.

Referring to the civil unrest of the immediately post-independence period,
from 1948, Than Shwe stressed learning from the past when making the
transition to a system “where both discipline and the core values of
democracy are guaranteed.” He added: “The government and national
institutions need to be strong and powerful in order to effect a
transformation from one era to another, and from one system to another.”

He described sanctions clamped on Burma by the United States and the EU as
colonial domination. Recently, Burma’s partners in the Association of
Southeast Asian Nations have also begun to lose patience with the junta’s
recalcitrance towards democratic reform. Despite this, Than Shwe said
Burma’s neighbors in the region as well as “all positive-thinking
countries” have approved the junta’s political reforms.

While Than Shwe’s speech included a brief history of Armed Forces Day, he
made no mention of the man who inspired it: Burma’s founding father Aung
San. Perhaps that was because he was also the father of opposition leader
Aung San Suu Kyi, now under house arrest. Armed Forces Day commemorates
the day in 1945 when Aung San led a struggle for independence against
Japanese forces occupying Burma.

Some western diplomats in Rangoon didn’t attend the ceremony, according to
diplomatic sources there.

Suu Kyi’s National League for Democracy, or NLD, held its own ceremony in
honor of what they called “the struggle against Japanese forces” day. Once
again, the NLD called for the release of both Aung San Suu Kyi and another
leader, Tin Oo.

Among those who attended this ceremony were prominent pro-democracy
activist Min Ko Naing and other student leaders.

______________________________________

March 28, Shan Herald Agency for News
Convention rep: No law in Burma - Hawkeye

"There is no law in Burma except what comes out of the generals' mouths,"
sighed a delegate from Shan State, one among the thousand plus people who
had been ordered to attend the National Convention, as he prepared to
return from his weekly outlet in Rangoon to the venue at Naunghnapin 40 km
away:

"The Wa tried on the preceding Friday (18 March) to recapitulate on what
they had proposed during the last round (17 May - 9 July 2004)," he
related without going into the details," but they were barred from doing
so resulting in some tensions."

"So were the Karenni (Nationalities People Liberation Front) people,"
added another delegate.

The delegates from ceasefire groups, who had previously proposed a federal
structure for future Burma, were later informed by one of the conveners
that further attempts to discuss their demands would come to nothing. "The
best you can expect is some rewording in the Preamble and perhaps, in the
Appendices, if there are any," they were reportedly told, "because the
main text of the constitution has already been drafted."

"I don't want to attend it anymore," said the first delegate. "What's the
use of it if you are not allowed to say what you believe is in the
interests of the people. But I have to, because I don't want to get into
trouble."

The other delegate also questioned the whole point of holding the
convention to lay down guidelines for the constitution if Burma's rulers
are not ready to listen to the participants, let alone consider their
ideas. "That's the disciplined-flourishing democracy for you," he
concluded. "It means nothing other than a chameleon democracy."

The expression chameleon (Pok-thin-nyo) in Burmese gives a sense totally
different from that in English. Whereas in the latter, it means
'vacillator or shifter', in the former, it stands for 'yesman', as the
chameleon is commonly known in Burma for its habitual head-nodding.

With regards to the adjournment of the National Convention, the delegates
confirmed it would be before the annual water festival, 13-16 April,
though the exact date has yet to be announced.

"They never bother to tell us when it will stop or start again" grumbled a
delegate as he hurried off for Nyaunghnapin.

______________________________________

March 28, Mizzima News
Bomb scare mounts security cover in Rangoon hotels

Rangoon: A phone call threatening to blast the top Rangoon hotels sent the
the authorities scurrying for extra vigilance in the capital of Burma, on
the fascist revolution day yestereay.

An anonymous phone call made to the Kandawgyi Palace Hotel threatened
simultaneous bomb blasts in  Rangoon’s top hotels- the Sedona, Traders and
the Kandawgyi Palace. In an instant panic reaction, hotel authorities took
precautionary measures and extended the duty hours of the employees
overnight.

The Military government marked 27 March as Armed forces Day while
dissidents continued to observe it as the Fascist Revolution Day.  With
the recovery of a bomb two days ago in the Dagon Center Super market in
Sanchaung Township, authorities ordered the super market to remain closed
for two days on 26 and 27 March.

______________________________________
ON THE BORDER

March 26, Kaowao News
Three Pagodas Pass under alert

Civilians at the Three Pagodas Pass area at the Thai Burma border were
given a curfew notice not to travel at night due to possible clashes
between the Thai and Burma Armies.

According to local sources, Thai authorities warned civilians not to
travel at night from 6 p.m. to 5:30 a.m. in the morning local time after
the Burma Army issued an order to the Thai government to relocate over 50
Thai houses from the border area.

The source from the border town reported that the Burma Army Infantry
Battalion No. 36 led by Lt. Col Ye Naing has reinforced its troops with
the DKBA (Democratic Karen Buddhist Army) and KPF (Karen Peace Force) by
moving into strategic positions along the border.  Eyewitnesses report
that soldiers are digging trenches in case clashes break out between the
two armies.

Nai Phaen, a local businessman reported that the relationship between the
Burma Army and Thai has been tense since a DKBA member was killed by the
Thai army last week. Two companies of the Thai Army at the border town
have been put on alert.

Both sides have been in a state of readiness for possible clashes.  In the
past several clashes on the Thai Burma border have occurred between
Thailand and Burma with the Burma Army accusing Thailand of aiding ethnic
rebel groups fighting the Rangoon junta.

______________________________________

March 28, Associated Press
Border casinos feel pain of Chinese gambling crackdown

Shanghai: Scores of casinos along China's borders with Russia and Myanmar
have closed amid a major Chinese crackdown on gambling, official media
reported Monday.

A dearth of high-rolling Chinese gamblers has shuttered all but one of the
82 Myanmar casinos along the border with southwestern China, the Xinhua
News Agency and newspapers said.

Myanmar is also known as Burma.

Along Russia's border with northeastern Heilongjiang province, 18 out of
28 casinos have been forced to shut, the reports said.

"Those remaining in operation are in a poor state," said the Xinhua
report, quoting an unidentified official with the national antigambling
task force.

China recently has taken a hard stance against illegal gambling, thought
to be linked to official corruption, organized crime and other social
ills.

Chinese police have uncovered more than 48,000 gambling cases - including
320 that used the Internet - and seized 230 million yuan (US$28 million;
[euro]21 million) since the crackdown began at the start of the year,
according to Xinhua.

Xinhua gave no figures for arrests or punishments, but an earlier Xinhua
report from late January said 15,000 people had been arrested in that
month alone.

The high profile of the crackdown has apparently scared many Chinese away
from the poorly regulated border casinos that are a prime venue for
illicit gambling. Players are believed to often use embezzled government
funds or illegal business profits and authorities have identified the
casinos as a source of capital flight, Xinhua said.

China banned gambling, long a popular pastime, after the 1949 Communist
revolution. But betting resurged as social controls loosened in recent
years, with Chinese gamblers becoming sought-after customers in casinos
from Macau to Las Vegas.

_____________________________________
REGIONAL

March 28, Agence France Presse
Singapore's PM Lee to visit Cambodia, Myanmar and Laos

Singapore: Singapore Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong will visit Laos,
Myanmar and Cambodia this week as part of a new leader's traditional
introductory trips to fellow ASEAN states, his office said Monday.

The visit to the three fellow members of the Association of Southeast
Asian Nations (ASEAN) comes amid suggestions that Myanmar could lose the
ASEAN chairmanship next year unless tangible democratic reforms are
implemented.

Lee will begin his tour on Tuesday in Laos, where he will meet Prime
Minister Bounnhang Vorachith and call on President Khamtay Siphandone, an
official statement said.

In Myanmar on Wednesday he is scheduled to meet his counterpart Soe Win
and the chairman of the ruling junta, Senior General Than Shwe.

Lee will go on to Cambodia on Thursday for a meeting with Prime Minister
Hun Sen and an audience with King Norodom Sihamoni.

Lee, who took office last August, has already visited the other ASEAN
members Brunei, Malaysia, Indonesia, the Philippines, Thailand and
Vietnam.

Lee's visit to Myanmar comes two weeks before a foreign ministers' meeting
in the Philippines at which Yangon may come under pressure to carry out
reforms or risk losing the rotating ASEAN leadership next year.

Government MPs in Malaysia are reportedly planning to table a motion
calling on Myanmar to release democracy icon Aung San Suu Kyi and speed up
political reforms. Otherwise, they would press for it to be passed over as
ASEAN chair.

Thailand and Cambodia have said they will not support any such move while
Malaysian Foreign Minister Syed Hamid Albar on Monday played down the
threat.

Singapore Foreign Minister George Yeo, who will travel with Lee, said this
month that ASEAN is worried at the slow pace of democratic reforms in
Myanmar and its impact on the group's ties with its main dialogue partners
such as the United States and the European Union.

ASEAN rotates its chair alphabetically and Myanmar is due to take over
from Malaysia in 2006.

This means it would host the ASEAN summit in late 2006 and the foreign
ministers' meeting in mid-2007, which will include a regional security
forum involving the United States, China, Russia and the European Union
among others.

Washington has threatened to boycott ASEAN meetings and the EU may do
likewise if Myanmar assumes the leadership without tangible changes.

_____________________________________

March 28, Agence France Presse
Thailand declines to push Myanmar on reforms

Bangkok: Thai Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra refused Monday to
criticize military-ruled Myanmar, where the slow pace of democratic reform
has led to calls to strip Yangon of its ASEAN chairmanship next year.

"ASEAN should discuss when they meet about how (the reforms) will be, and
meanwhile Myanmar has to reform itself," Thaksin said.

"This is not an issue only for Thailand. It's an issue for all of ASEAN to
take up," he said.

Asked by reporters why his government refused to take a hard line against
Myanmar's junta, Thaksin said Thailand had always stood by its neighbour
in bilateral relations.

"But multilateral relations are decided by ASEAN," he said.

Thailand has already said it will not be a part of any campaign to suspend
Myanmar from the ASEAN chair.

The 10-member Association of Southeast Asian Nations rotates its chair
alphabetically and Myanmar is due to take over from Malaysia in late 2006.

Malaysia MPs warned Myanmar in December that its pledge to move towards
democracy could only be credible if opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi was
released from house arrest.

Malaysian Foreign Minister Syed Hamid Albar, however, played down Monday
threats to strips Myanmar of the chairmanship.

Meanwhile, Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Sen also Monday said Cambodia
would not back the Malaysian parliamentarians' campaign, saying it
violates ASEAN's policy of non-intereference in the affairs of member
states.

Singapore Foreign Minister George Yeo earlier this month warned that ASEAN
foreign ministers were unhappy about the pace of Myanmar's reforms and the
consequences these were having on the association's reputation.

ASEAN's other members are Brunei, Indonesia, Laos, the Philippines, and
Vietnam.

_____________________________________

March 27, Bangkok Post
KL ups the ante on Rangoon

Burma's chairmanship of Asean in jeopardy

Asplit is developing among Southeast Asian nations over moves to block
Burma from the rotating chairmanship of Asean next year, international
news reports said yesterday.

MPs from Malaysia's ruling party, with the tacit support of Prime Minister
Abdullah Badawi, are planning to put Burma on notice to implement
democratic reforms and release democracy leader Aung San Suu Kyi from
house arrest, or lose its turn to lead the Asean grouping, Radio Australia
said. ''It is understood Indonesia, the Philippines and Singapore may
support the [Malaysian] move,'' Radio Australia's Southeast Asia
correspondent Peter Lloyd said.

Voice of America radio reported yesterday that an aide to Mr Abdullah said
if the junta fails to make progress, Malaysia will seek to have Burma's
rotation as Asean chair suspended and given to other countries ''until
democratic reforms are carried out''.

But Thailand's newly installed Foreign Minister Kantathi Supamongkhon sa!
id his country was firmly against Burma losing its chance to lead Asean.
''Thailand will not get involved in Malaysia's campaign,'' Mr Kantathi
said. ''We have to be very careful, we cannot jump to conclusions.''

Mr Kantathi said he expected Rangoon to be aware of the region's wishes
for democratisation in the country, and that taking steps to convince
fellow members of progress was important. ''Burma must heed other
countries' signals,'' he said. ''Thailand wants to see positive change in
Burma, and because Burma will play a key role in Asean next year, thus it
will encourage Burma for positive change.''

Malaysia takes over the chair at a summit in Kuala Lumpur in November and
Burma's turn is due in 2006.

Former US ambassador to the United Nations Richard Holbrooke warned in
Bangkok last Monday that the US and other countries might boycott the 2006
summit and two major meetings immediately afterwards if they are held in
Rangoon as scheduled.

Debbie Sto! thard, coordinator of Altsean, a Bangkok-based human rights
group campaigning for democracy in Burma, welcomed the move. ''The
military regime in Burma has not engaged in any genuine moves towards
democracy. Giving the country chairmanship will only foster complacency
amongst the Burmese generals.''

Asean foreign ministers are to hold an informal meeting in the central
Philippine island of Cebu from April 9-12, and the issue of Burma's
chairmanship will be high on the agenda.

Singapore Foreign Minister George Yeo said in parliament on March 4 that
while Asean would be non-confrontational, ''in the end... some hard
messages may have to be put across''. He said ''many'' of his fellow
foreign ministers worry about Rangoon taking over the chair and warned
that ''unless the Burmese authorities handle the situation carefully,
Asean's credibility and cohesion would be jeopardised''.

Marty Natalegawa, the Foreign Ministry spokesman of Asean's largest member
Indonesia, said the chair is decided based on Asean's principle of
consensus, taking into consideration ''all aspects'' relevant to the
matter.

He stressed that while some developments may be considered internal to a
member country, Indonesia has ''also emphasised the need to see things
from the perspective of Asean as a collective family of nations''.

Former Asean secretary-general Rodolfo Severino said that while Burma has
been a thorn in Asean's side, disrupting the selection process could set a
dangerous precedent. ''Does this mean that when you don't like what
another member is doing, you skip the rotation process? This is a rather
dangerous move... we all know that there are member states that are not
happy with what's going on in Burma. But I also think that they should
look at the problems the Burmese government is facing and also look at the
consequences.''

______________________________________

March 28, Bangkok Post
Laos will listen to Rangoon before deciding - Bhanravee Tansubhapol

Vientiane: Laos will hear Rangoon's point of view before deciding on
Burma's controversial chairmanship of the Association of Southeast Asian
Nations (Asean) next year, Lao Foreign Minister Somsavad Lengsawat said
yesterday.

Mr Somsavad said he would raise the issue when his Burmese counterpart
visits Vientiane on April 6.

“Since it is Asean policy not to intervene in each other's internal
affairs, we must listen to Burma first before making any decision,” said
Mr Somsavad, who is Asean chairman this year.

The issue was not on the agenda for the informal Asean foreign ministers
meeting in Cebu, the Philippines, on April 9-12, he said.

Malaysia, Singapore, the Philippines, and Indonesia oppose Burma's
rotating chairmanship of Asean next year, citing its poor performance in
democratic reform and the continual detention of democracy leader Aung San
Suu Kyi under house arrest.

Foreign Minister Kantathi Supamongkhon said yesterday the issue of Burma's
chairmanship was sensitive and serious discussions were needed between
Asean members.

``We must follow policy carefully and come up with the best strategy,'' he
said.

In Rangoon, the junta chairman Senior General Than Shwe vowed to press
ahead with its controversial ``road map'' to democracy despite Western
criticism, in a speech marking Armed Forces Day, Reuters news agency
reported.

More than 7,100 members of the army, navy, air force and police paraded
through Resistance Park in downtown Rangoon, with uniformed officials from
the military government on hand.

Sen Gen Than Shwe, the 72-year-old top military leader who heads the State
Peace and Development Council, arrived in a Mercedes flanked by security
to inspect the troops, and then gave a speech vowing to prepare for a
democracy with ``institutionalised discipline''.

``The transition process constitutes a subtle and delicate but
epoch-making revolution making a new order,'' he said, apparently
referring to the junta's seven-step ``road map''.

``The nation needs reforms in all sectors - political, economic, social
and others - to be well prepared for a democratic system with fully
institutionalised discipline,'' he said.

``Without the dynamism of patriotic spirit it is impossible to face the
challenges from abroad that come from all directions.''

The junta's latest round of constitutional talks, the first step on its
self-declared road map, resumed in February to a chorus of criticism from
Western countries who condemned the proceedings for failing to include
Aung San Suu Kyi's National League for Democracy.

______________________________________
INTERNATIONAL

March 28, Agence France Presse
Independent report urges EU to overhaul Myanmar ties

Yangon: An independent report to the European Commission obtained Monday
urges the European Union to overhaul its policies on Myanmar in favor of
an approach that would boost the economy and improve governance.

"Fifteen years of western censure and sanctions have had no visible impact
on the will or the capacity of the military rulers to maintain power,"
said the 29-page report commissioned by the EC, a copy of which was
obtained by AFP.

"Whatever policies and attitudes the outside world adopts toward
Burma/Myanmar, the military will remain in power for the foreseeable
future," the report said.

"The failure to effectively understand and work with the government
undermines the EU's strategic and humanitarian objectives," the report
added, calling for sweeping changes in EU policy.

Among the report's 12 proposals are: recognizing Myanmar instead of Burma
as the official name of the country; resuming regular high-level visits;
revising the use of sanctions; and restoring some aid programs aimed at
easing crushing poverty and improving basic education.

The report was written by long-time Myanmar researchers Robert Taylor,
currently a fellow at the Institute of Southeast Asian Studies in
Singapore, and Morten Pederson, an analyst for the International Crisis
Group.

Their findings are due to be presented at a Burma/Myanmar Day meeting in
Brussels.

"To recognise the political reality of the situation now and in the future
is not to pander or kowtow to the interests of the generals. It is to
acknowledge that meaningful democratic change depends on local capacities
to bring it about and make it work for the benefit of the population at
large," the report said.

The EU imposed sanctions on the military regime in June 2003, and
tightened them in September 2004, after Yangon failed to meet its demands
including the release of pro-democracy leader and Nobel peace laureate
Aung San Suu Kyi.

The sanctions include a visa blacklist on Yangon leaders, trade
restrictions, an arms embargo and a freezing of assets.

The United States also has tough sanctions in place against Myanmar,
including a ban on new US investments and all financial services, a
prohibition of imports, an arms embargo and suspension of all bilateral
aid.

______________________________________
OPINION / OTHER

March 26, Straits Times (Singapore)
Bells are beginning to toll for Yangon - Verghese Mathews

Asean parliamentarians grapple towards an acceptable solution to the
problem of Myanmar's assumption of the grouping's chairmanship.

I am sure that there are many like me who will say syabas to Datuk Seri
Nazri Abdul Aziz, Minister in the Prime Minister's Department in charge of
parliamentary affairs, for his widely quoted statement in local and
international media that "Myanmar's turn to be the chairman of Asean
(ought) to be suspended and given to other countries until democratic
reforms are carried out".

He also declared tellingly that "a motion to suspend Myanmar's
chairmanship would be introduced in Malaysia's Parliament next week".

This is surely a seriously considered commentary calculated to send a
clear signal to Yangon that Malaysia means business.

It is interesting that the Myanmar issue is now reaching the various Asean
parliaments.

Earlier in the month, Singapore Foreign Minister George Yeo expressed
frustration and disappointment in his Parliament that Myanmar's roadmap to
democracy was still without a timeline; that United Nations efforts to
facilitate and advance the national reconciliation process in Myanmar were
unsuccessful and that Aung San Suu Kyi remained in detention.

Likewise, I am sure that any discussion in the Malaysian Parliament will
see an even greater outpouring of frustration and disappointment.

Some of the parliamentarians can be expected to be tougher and more
demanding than Nazri. But would Myanmar's military rulers really care what
Singaporean and Malaysian parliamentarians have to say? They have not been
bothered by more strident criticism before. Why should they now?

If need be they can always adopt the famous ostrich posture and ask
themselves what Asean can do.

This would lead to the question of how serious Malaysia is in spearheading
this initiative to prevent Myanmar from tak ing over as chair of Asean in
July 2006 and whether the momentum can be sustained. I would suggest that
Malaysia is very serious indeed.

For a start, there is precedence. Back in 1961, it was Prime Minister
Tunku Abdul Rahman who championed the cause against apartheid South
Africa, which subsequently led to Pretoria walking out of the Commonwealth
and declaring itself a republic. Two years later, Malaysia worked with
India for South Africa's ouster from the UN.

Second, I would suggest that the clarion is deliberately sounded early
enough, before Malaysia assumes the chairmanship in four months, to
encourage other Asean members to join Malaysia in pushing for Myanmar to
defer its chairmanship.

Malaysia understandably wants this to be an Asean effort. It knows well
the extent of the frustration within the organisation on this issue. It
realises that Myanmar knows this, too, but is sitting tight.

By individual Asean countries expressing their unhappiness op enly, the
pressure is calculated to increase on Myanmar.

Third, over the years Malaysia has demonstrated that whenever it assumed
the Asean chairmanship, it is single-mindedly focused on moving the
regional grouping forward. It does not want to be distracted by
unnecessary and unhelpful theatrics.

Unfortunately, all present indications are that much time and energy will
indeed be wasted on the Myanmar issue.

As chairman, much of the firefighting will fall on Malaysia. Worse, if in
fact Myanmar is to assume the chairmanship, it will be Malaysia that will
have to do the honours of passing on the baton. Yes, Malaysia is indeed
serious - it does not want to be the baton-passer.

Better for those presently in power in Myanmar to realise that the
proverbial bells have begun to toll.

Only a few days ago, former US ambassador to the United Nations Richard
Holbrooke declared that "by holding these meetings in Rangoon, Asean runs
a serious risk that countr ies which attended regularly for a quarter
century will not show (up)."

The message was not directed at Myanmar but at Asean and Holbrooke was
advancing a considered opinion.

Myanmar is not easily threatened by rhetoric but analysts in its military
corridors would not have failed to recognise that the Asean tide is
uncharacteristically building up against Yangon at a time when the ruling
junta is itself facing internal problems.

The analysts probably realise that this is no time to play the
recalcitrant and that it is no time for bravado even though deep down they
realise that the fear of the military leaders is that every concession to
the democratic forces is one loosened grip on the levers of power. The
analysts need to point out that power is flowing out of the military hands
sooner than later.

More importantly, analysts in Yangon need to take cognisance of an
important point - no one in Asean is pushing Myanmar into a corner - it is
already the re of its own making. Instead, what Asean is really attempting
is to arrive at an acceptable solution to the problem.

Elsewhere, it has been mentioned that there is still one opportunity for
Myanmar to alter the unprecedented tide - by themselves declaring that
this time around they will pass the chairmanship to the next in line,
which is the Philippines.

Such a move will be painful and not in the character of the military
rulers. Most analysts dismiss this option totally as they do not believe
the military is enlightened enough to see the advantages of such a move.

I hope the military leaders in Yangon will prove these analysts wrong.

* The writer, Singapore's former Ambassador to Cambodia, is presently a
visiting research fellow at the Institute of Southeast Asian Studies.