BurmaNet News, March 30, 2005

[Editor]

March 30, 2005 Issue # 2686

INSIDE BURMA
AFP: Myanmar gives citizens 24 hours to hand over unlicensed cars
AFP: Singapore's PM arrives in Myanmar
Irrawaddy: How to fool the cyber spooks

ON THE BORDER
Irrawaddy: Burmese refugees relocate to Thai camps

REGIONAL
AFP: Frustrated UN envoy backs ASEAN pressure on Myanmar
Vietnam News Briefs: Mekong nations gather in Hanoi to boost anti-human
trafficking

INTERNATIONAL
AP: Leading senator says U.S. should boycott ASEAN sessions if Myanmar is
chair
AFP: EU wants progress before Myanmar takes ASEAN chair
AFP: UN expert urges international community to make inroads into Myanmar

OPINION / OTHER
FT: No Burmese days: For their own good, neighbours should shun the junta
Wall Street Journal: Pressuring Burma
Sydney Morning Herald: Unseating Burma's junta

ANNOUNCEMENT
New US State Department report, “Conditions in Burma and U.S. Policy
Toward Burma,” available online:
http://www.state.gov/p/eap/rls/rpt/43970.htm

______________________________________
INSIDE BURMA

March 30, Agence France Presse
Myanmar gives citizens 24 hours to hand over unlicensed cars

Yangon: Myanmar's military rulers Wednesday warned owners of unlicensed
cars that they have 24 hours to hand over the vehicles or face seven years
in prison, state media reported.

"The illegal, unlicensed cars must be handed over to the police on March
31 at the latest," said the warning in the state-run New Light of Myanmar.

The warning specifically mentioned former ethnic armed groups that have
signed ceasefire deals with the ruling junta, saying they had been sent
"reminders" about the vehicles.

As of March 27 police had collected 4,781 unlicensed cars around the
country, including 151 turned over by Buddhist monks who had received them
as donations, the paper said.

"If an unlicensed car is found donated to a religious or other
organization, action will be taken against the donor and the owner," the
official warning added.

Owning an illegal and unlicensed car after March 31 is punishable by seven
years in prison and a fine, while the vehicle would be impounded.

Garages or spare parts shops that dismantle unlicensed cars could be
charged with hiding evidence and also face prison or fines, the warning
read.

Use of a fake number plate is also liable to seven years in jail, it said.

Experts estimate that 30,000 unlicensed cars have been imported into
Myanmar, many of them with permission from the now defunct Military
Intelligence Organization. It was dismantled in a government purge last
year.

______________________________________

March 30, Agence France Presse
Singapore's PM arrives in Myanmar

Yangon: Singapore Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong arrived in Myanmar on
Wednesday, amid rumblings over whether the military-ruled nation should be
allowed to become chairman of ASEAN as scheduled next year.

Lee, who became leader of his city-state in August, is on a three-day
visit to Laos, Myanmar and Cambodia as part of a new leader's traditional
visits to fellow members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations.

He was set to meet Prime Minister Lieutenant General Soe Win and later
Wednesday have talks with the junta leader Senior General Than Shwe,
before having dinner with Soe Win.

The meeting with Soe Win was to take place at a military guest house run
by the State Peace and Development Council, as the junta is known.

Singapore Foreign Minister George Yeo, who is travelling with Lee, said
this month ASEAN leaders were worried that its international reputation
would be tarnished unless Myanmar implements democratic reforms.

Unless Yangon demonstrates some changes, ASEAN leaders would have to
convey "hard messages," Yeo said.

Politicians in Malaysia and the Philippines are putting pressure on the
reclusive country, which has been ruled by the military since 1962, to
implement democratic reforms.

The politicians are trying to stop Myanmar assuming ASEAN's alphabetically
rotating chairmanship in late 2006 after Malaysia.

Filipino lawmakers are trying to get the issue discussed at an April 3
meeting in the Philippines involving 1,500 legislators from Asia, Europe
and America.

But Malaysia's government this week distanced itself from moves by
lawmakers to introduce a motion in parliament urging that ASEAN deny
Yangon the chairmanship until it releases detained democracy icon Aung San
Suu Kyi.

Her latest period of house arrest began in May 2003.

Lee's delegation leaves Thursday morning for Cambodia for a meeting with
Prime Minister Hun Sen, an audience with King Norodom Sihamoni and an
official lunch with Hun Sen.

Lee has already met Laotian leaders, including Prime Minister Bounnhang
Vorachith and President Khamtay Siphandone.

______________________________________

March 27, Irrawaddy
How to fool the cyber spooks - Shawn L. Nance

Rangoon: It can be a tricky task to surf the Internet in Burma. Telephone
lines reach less than 1 percent of the people and the country is subject
to frequent blackouts. The junta keeps a tight lid on information and only
opened email service to the public a few years ago (but it still won’t
allow the use of Hotmail or Yahoo!). Of 52 million people, only some
35,000 browse the web regularly.

Thirty-thousand of them use Bagan Cybertech individual dial-up accounts,
says a company spokesperson. Nearly all are in Rangoon and Mandalay. So
too, are the 1,000 or so ADSL digital-line subscribers. iPSTAR satellite
accounts, used in the countryside, only number about 100.

For the time being, those numbers won’t change. For most of the past six
months the government has barred Bagan from issuing new email accounts.
The company is accepting applications for new individual subscribers—for a
start-up fee of 60,000 kyat (roughly US $63) and an annual fee ranging
from 8,000 to 28,000 kyat. But it might be a while before an account is
opened, the spokesperson adds.

Existing Internet subscribers have access to around 12,000 websites. All
web traffic passes through government servers and strict penalties await
unlucky users caught browsing forbidden web pages.

Type www.irrawaddy.org into the computer and you will be denied by a Dans
Guardian content filter. But first visit one of several dozen proxy
servers and the information highway is wide open, unhindered by Burma’s
cyber spooks.

To seal the cracks, the junta has purchased an anti-virus and web content
filtering software package produced by the US-based Fortinet Co. The New
Light of Myanmar announced on its front page in May 2004 that Myanmar
Millennium Group managing director Min Zeya Hlaing was named the official
representative in Burma of Fortinet, a privately held company
headquartered in Sunnyvale, California.

The Fortinet Antivirus Firewall, the paper added, was introduced to
“support e-Government projects.” But a Western diplomat suspects the junta
bought the software to block proxy server traffic.

For all its efforts, the junta can’t monitor all web content and new
proxies pop up all the time. Determined web surfers in Rangoon’s couple of
dozen Internet cafes, and particularly those in the privacy of their own
homes, can access virtually any website they wish. So has the junta wasted
its money?

Don’t blame the software, says Uthaipat Ratanaphupha, a Fortinet
representative in Thailand. Burma is poor, and trained talent is thin.
“So,” he adds, “You have to be selective about what you block.”

______________________________________
ON THE BORDER

March 30, Irrawaddy
Burmese refugees relocate to Thai camps - Khun Sam and Elissa Thet

Burmese refugees are scrambling to meet the March 31 deadline set by Thai
authorities to relocate to refugee camps along the Thai-Burma border.

Those who have been granted Persons of Concern, or POC, status by the
United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees, or UNHCR, such as former
political activists, will be deemed illegal immigrants by Thailand if they
do not move out of urban areas and into the camps by tomorrow.

An immigrant in Bangkok estimated that at least 3000 POCs are living in
the Thai capital, with an additional 900 POCs in the border town of Mae
Sot.

“It can’t be helped, we must move to the camps,” said Ko Myo, a former
political prisoner now registered as a POC and living in Chiang Mai. “But
the camps are like prisons. We came to Thailand to avoid suffering, but
they are now forcing us into these prisons. It’s really senseless.” Ko Myo
will report to a special detention center in Bangkok later today.

As illegal immigrants, Burmese refugees may be subject to arrest,
detention and deportation. Thailand will also refuse to grant them exit
clearance to resettle in third countries, even if those countries have
already accepted their asylum applications.

The United States-based Human Rights Watch said in a statement yesterday
that “the forced relocation of Burmese refugees to the camps is a clear
attempt to improve relations with the military junta in Rangoon.”

Ko Myo concurs, claiming that the move is an attempt to destroy the
anti-junta opposition groups based in Thailand. “The Thai government and
the Burmese government want to do business with each other. Now all
political dissidents must first register as refugees. It [the Thai
government] no longer wants opposition movements on Thai soil.”

At the refugee camps located in rural areas, residents are not allowed to
use mobile phones or the internet. This will effectively cut them off from
the outside world. Health and sanitation conditions in the nine border
camps are also a cause for concern. Electricity as well as adequate water
and housing are said by human rights groups to be lacking.

According to Elizabeth Kirton, head of the UNHCR field office in Mae Sot,
refugees have been sent to the camps every day since Saturday. Three of
the nine border refugee camps are receiving the new refugees.

_____________________________________
REGIONAL

March 30, Agence France Presse
Frustrated UN envoy backs ASEAN pressure on Myanmar

Putrajaya, Malaysia: The United Nations' special envoy to Myanmar, who has
not been allowed into the country for a year, backed Wednesday moves by
ASEAN lawmakers to pressure the military junta for democratic reforms.

"The UN is always on the side of democracy. It supports the principles
these people are pushing and these principles are very important for all
government's to adhere to," Razali Ismail told reporters in the Malaysian
city of Putrajaya. The UN envoy was commenting on a move by government
lawmakers in Malaysia to strip Myanmar of the right to the Association of
Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) chairmanship next year unless it releases
democracy icon Aung San Suu Kyi and speeds up reforms.

Making clear his frustration at the military junta's response to his
diplomatic efforts, Razali said: "I am deeply disappointed that I am not
allowed to Myanmar for over a year. I can't imagine this should be so."

Razali said the UN was a friend of Myanmar's and wanted to help the
isolated country join the international fraternity.

"If I am allowed to return, I will impress on the Myanmar leaders to move
according to the democratic plan, release democracy leader Aung San Suu
Kyi and allow other political parties to participate in the national
convention," he said.

The military junta announced a seven-step roadmap to democracy in 2003 but
it has barely got off the ground and has been denounced internationally as
a sham.

Razali, a former top Malaysian diplomat, was last permitted to enter
Myanmar in March 2004 when he urged all parties "to turn over a new page
for a credible democratic transitional process".

The move by Malaysian lawmakers calling for Myanmar to be barred from
assuming the ASEAN chairmanship in 2006 is matched by a resolution pending
in the Philippine senate.

Filipino legislators are expected to propose that the stand is adopted by
all member countries when ASEAN legislators meet on the sidelines of an
Inter-Parliamentary Union conference in Manila on April 3.

The ASEAN chair is rotated alphabetically each year among members Brunei,
Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, the Philippines, Singapore,
Thailand and Vietnam.

Malaysia takes over the chair from Laos at a summit in Kuala Lumpur in
November and Myanmar's turn is due in 2006.

Myanmar's membership of the grouping since 1997 has been a growing
irritant in relations between ASEAN and Western countries, including the
United States, and Razali said Myanmar could not ignore the increasing
pressure from ASEAN lawmakers calling for change.

"Basically, if you join a club ..., you should not behave differently," he
said.

Malaysia warned Myanmar in December that its pledge to move towards
democracy could only be credible if Aung San Suu Kyi were released from
house arrest.

The international icon of democracy and Nobel peace prize winner has spent
various periods in house arrest since 1989. Her latest began in May 2003.

Her National League for Democracy (NLD) won a landslide victory in
elections in 1990 but has never been allowed to take power.

______________________________________

March 30, Vietnam News Briefs
Mekong nations gather in Hanoi to boost anti-human trafficking

Over 30 senior officials from six members of the Greater Mekong Sub-region
(GMS) including Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar, Thailand, China and Vietnam are
gathering in Hanoi to devise a course of cooperation in anti-human
trafficking for the next decade.

Addressing at the third senior officials' meeting of the Coordinated
Mekong Ministerial Initiative against Trafficking (COMMIT) scheduled for
March 29-31, Vietnam's Deputy Minister of Public Security Nguyen Van Tinh
called for the international community to help stamp out all acts of
exploitation and abuse of human rights.

Mr. Tinh also confirmed the country's determination to fight against these
activities, particularly those related to women and children.

Jordan Ryan, the United Nations Development Program Resident
Representative to Vietnam, said that the United Nations (UN) should
promote further technical cooperation among countries and international
law enforcement agencies to secure protection and support for victims of
trafficking in the countries of origin, transit and destination.

Participants shared the same view that the situation in the region has
become more serious with a sharp increase in the number of cases.

In Vietnam alone, since 1991, police nationwide exposed 3,700 cases of
such kind and brought to court more than 6,200 defendants, who had
reportedly trafficked thousands of local women and children abroad; mostly
to China for disadvantaged marriage, child adoption, labor and sex
slavery.

The three-day meeting will adopt an action plan on anti-human trafficking
in the GMS during 2005-2007 aimed at cementing the Ministerial Memorandum
signed in Myanmar in October last year.

Accordingly, an effective network will be set up to prevent crime and help
the victims to repatriate.

______________________________________
INTERNATIONAL

March 30, Associated Press
Leading senator says U.S. should boycott ASEAN sessions if Myanmar is
chair - Ken Guggenheim

Washington: An influential U.S. senator said Wednesday the United States
should boycott ASEAN meetings next year if Myanmar takes over the
Southeast Asian bloc's revolving chairmanship next year.

Sen. Mitch McConnell also called on the European Union to make clear that
Myanmar's chairmanship "is completely unacceptable."

McConnell is one of the top voices on foreign affairs in Congress. He is
the No. 2 Republican in the Senate and chairs the subcommittee that funds
State Department operations and foreign assistance.

He has been the leading congressional critic of the military government in
Myanmar, also known as Burma, and his views carry considerable weight on
the issue with the administration of President George W. Bush, a fellow
Republican.

In a statement to The Associated Press, McConnell said he was "disturbed
that our close ally Thailand continues to fully and unequivocally support
the military junta in Rangoon."

"Thailand is simply out of step with the region and with other world
democracies," he said.

Myanmar has been under growing pressure in the region to make democratic
reforms and release political prisoners, including Nobel Peace Prize
laureate Aung San Suu Kyi. Some regional politicians have urged the junta
to relinquish the chairmanship of the 10-nation Association of Southeast
Asian Nations if it fails to do so.

McConnell said if Burma assumes the chairmanship, "the United States, the
EU and the community of democracies should boycott any and all ASEAN
meetings and events. To do anything less would betray the nonviolent
struggle for freedom that Suu Kyi, the National League for Democracy (Suu
Kyi's party), and the ethnic minorities have waged for over a decade."

The United States is not an ASEAN member, but regularly attends its
sessions. The U.S. government has raised the possibility of boycotting
ASEAN sessions if Myanmar assumes the chairmanship, but has not said it
would do so.

Asked last week if the United States was urging ASEAN nations to get
Myanmar to relinquish the chairmanship, a State Department official said
that "ASEAN will decide what ASEAN thinks is best for the organization."
But the official added "It's clear that Burma is a problem within that
organization."

"We've encouraged other countries, including other countries in ASEAN, to
try to use whatever influence and ability they have to impress upon the
leadership in Burma that they need to make changes," the official said,
speaking on condition of anonymity.

ASEAN members have been generally reluctant to criticize the Myanmar
government's human rights abuses because of a tradition of noninterference
in each other's domestic affairs. But criticism of Myanmar has been
growing in Malaysia, Singapore and the Philippines.

On Wednesday, the United Nations' envoy to Myanmar, Malaysian diplomat
Razali Ismail, urged the region's government's to push harder for
democratic reforms.

______________________________________

March 30, Agence France Presse
EU wants progress before Myanmar takes ASEAN chair

Brussels: The European Commission called Wednesday on Myanmar to meet key
demands including freeing opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi before it
takes over the chairmanship of the ASEAN regional bloc next year.

But the European Union (EU)'s executive arm also said it remains willing
to talk to Myanmar leaders, even though planned talks at a recent meeting
of the EU and the Asian group failed because Yangon did not send its
foreign minister.

A spokeswoman noted that critics -- notably in Malaysia -- have had
"things to say" about whether Myanmar's military regime should be allowed
to chair the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) in 2006.

"We hope very much that the problems that we currently have with
Burma/Myanmar could be resolved before then," said Emma Udwin, spokeswoman
for EU external relations commissioner Benita Ferrero-Waldner.

The EU notably wants Myanmar to free Aung San Suu Kyi, to launch a
"national dialogue for reconciliation that is truly inclusive" and that
all parties be able to participate in a national convention.

"We hope that in the time between now and then we can see some concrete
improvements," she said.

The EU last September bolstered sanctions against Myanmar, notably
including a travel ban, after Yangon failed to meet EU demands including
the release of democracy leader

But the commission on Wednesday reiterated the EU's willingness to meet
Myanmar's leaders, as planned at a March 10 EU-ASEAN meeting in Jakarta.

Those proposed talks, which would have marked a thawing of frozen
diplomatic contacts between the European bloc and Yangon, did not occur
because Burma's foreign minister was not present.

"There was a willingenss to hold such a meeting. I'm not aware that it has
been revoked in any way," said Udwin, although adding that no date has
been set for fresh talks.

Malaysian MPs are planning to table a motion calling on Myanmar to release
opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi and speed up political reforms or face
being passed over as ASEAN chair next year.

______________________________________

March 30, Agence France Presse
UN expert urges international community to make inroads into Myanmar

Geneva: A UN human rights expert on Wednesday urged the international
community to seize every opportunity to make inroads into Myanmar and
maintain dialogue with the government despite the apparent hardening of
the junta.

"I think it's very important for the international community to have
effective dialogue with the new administration. There are not too many
options," said the UN Special Rapporteur on human rights in Myanmar, Paulo
Sergio Pinheiro.

Pinheiro welcomed a possible reassessment of the European Union's approach
on Myanmar following an independent advisory report to the EU this week
recommending a policy overhaul, including revising the use of sanctions.

"It's positive that countries are reassessing their approach," Pinheiro
told journalists, while advocating continued political pressure for
democratic change.

The UN expert insisted that that stance should be accompanied by moves to
bolster private economic ties or social programmes that deal directly with
Myanmar's civilian population.

"I think it's not a good approach to wait until the end of a military
regime to begin to engage with the population," Pinheiro said.

He called on outside players -- especially neighbouring countries -- to
seize any opportunity of "empowering the community to deal with concrete
problems", listing privatisation, anti-corruption measures, health
programmes, education reforms and environmental protection.

Pinheiro, who has been shut out of the country by the junta recently, also
warned that 2006 would be a watershed, with Myanmar due to take over the
presidency of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN).

"If changes are not guaranteed now we'll arrive in 2006 with the meeting
of ASEAN. We'll find Asian countries divided, Europe in I don't know what
position, and the US without big change in the Congress."

The 10-member Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) rotates its
chair alphabetically and Myanmar is due to take over from Malaysia next
year.

But ASEAN members have been pressing Myanmar behind the scenes to make
changes before then, diplomats said.

The UN expert admitted that many international actors were waiting to see
how the country's political reforms would progress with the "slow"
National Convention process towards democracy.

"We are waiting to see new events that could confirm there is some
inclication by the new administration to move ahead."

In a report to the UN Human Rights Commission, Pinheiro said it would be
"unfair to refuse to acknowledge progress because the changes do not meet
a maximalist scenario".

However he urged more swift action from the junta, including the full
reintegration of opposition parties including the National League for
Democracy (NLD), the release of political prisoners and the halt of
ongoing abuse of civilians, especially of minorities.

"I am very distressed that the recent leadership changes in Myanmar do not
seem to have led to greater tolerance for the peaceful expression of
views," he said in the report.

Pinheiro repeated calls for the release of pro-democracy leader Aung San
Suu Kyi, who remains under house arrest.

"She's more isolated now than before October 2004," the UN expert said,
referring to a power shift within the junta last year.

______________________________________
OPINION / OTHER

March 30, Financial Times
No Burmese days: For their own good, neighbours should shun the junta

If there is one thing that the US and Europe can agree on without any
soul-searching, it is that the Burmese military junta is unfit to host an
international meeting. Burma has made no progress in introducing democracy
or improving human rights in the last decade. Nor is the country an
important enough oil producer or economic partner to cause the West to
hesitate for long about isolating the regime.

The significance of this is beginning to dawn on Burma's neighbours in the
Association of South East Asian Nations (Asean). Burma is due to take the
rotating chair of Asean from the middle of next year, and thus to host
meetings with western and Asian governments, but the more sensible Asean
leaders realise that something has to give: if the junta does not withdraw
from the chairmanship or suddenly produce tangible evidence of
democratisation, there will be embarrassingly few participants from
abroad.

This is no small matter. Under current conditions, including the continued
house arrest of Aung San Suu Kyi, the Burmese democracy campaigner,
invitations to a meeting in Rangoon would prompt a western boycott and the
collapse of the main diplomatic forum for south-east Asia.

Not surprisingly, the advanced, internationally connected economies are
putting the most pressure on Burma. Lee Hsien Loong, Singapore's prime
minister, will discuss the issue with Burma's rulers in Rangoon today.

In Malaysia, which championed Burma's entry into Asean in 1997, the
government is backing a parliamentary motion calling for Burma to be
passed over for the Asean chair. A meeting of Asean foreign ministers in
the Philippines next month will put further pressure on Burma to withdraw.

Even Thaksin Shinawatra, the Thai prime minister, whose family company has
invested in Burma, spoke this week of the need for Burma to improve in the
interests of Asean. Only minor players such as Hun Sen, the strongman in
charge of Cambodia, and the Communist rulers of Laos are calling for Asean
to maintain its policy of non-interference in domestic politics.

This policy has been used as an excuse for inaction since Burma joined
Asean eight years ago, but the snag is that its accession in the 1990s was
agreed under a completely different policy known as "constructive
engagement": Asean would take in Burma, reach its full complement of the
region's 10 nation states and so present a united front to the outside
world, while Burma's neighbours would work behind the scenes to encourage
political and economic reform.

So far, constructive engagement has failed. The junta's intransigence
threatens to expose Asean to the humiliating spectacle of its meetings
being hosted by a regime better known for brutality than for international
understanding. Burma must withdraw from the chairmanship of Asean, and its
fellow members must not shrink from the task of persuading it to do so.

______________________________________

March 29, Wall Street Journal
Pressuring Burma

Burma's fellow members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations are
showing signs that they are no longer willing to turn a blind eye to its
military junta's suppression of democracy and human rights.

In Malaysia and Singapore, government ministers have publicly expressed
dismay at the damage Burma's membership -- and, especially, its scheduled
chairmanship of the regional body next year -- is doing to Asean's
international image. Government lawmakers are expected to table a motion
in the Malaysian parliament this week calling for Burma to be denied the
chairmanship. Similar moves are afoot among Indonesian and Philippines
legislators.

But the Thai government of Thaksin Shinawatra is bucking the trend,
refusing to allow Malaysia to raise the chairmanship issue at a meeting of
regional foreign ministers next week. That is a stance for which Asean may
pay dearly, given the reluctance of the U.S. and Europe to deal with an
organization that has such a repressive regime chairing its meetings.

Only concerted international pressure can force the Burmese junta to
release Aung San Suu Kyi and move toward democracy. Malaysia and others
now recognize that means reconsidering Asean's outdated doctrine of
non-interference in member states' internal affairs. Thailand is not doing
itself any favors, in terms of world opinion, by opposing this initiative.

______________________________________

March 29, Sydney Morning Herald
Unseating Burma's junta

The rules of the diplomatic game in South-East Asia go something like
this. Whatever a government, despotic or otherwise, chooses to do within
the privacy of its borders is its business. Specifically, the key
neighbourhood club - the Association of South-East Asian Nations (ASEAN) -
lists as a core principal the "non-interference in the internal affairs"
of another member state. When ASEAN was founded in 1967 this cosy deal was
enthusiastically embraced. At the time the region was in mainly
authoritarian hands; Indonesia's Soeharto was especially keen to have a
blind eye turned on his political armoury of summary executions, torture
and disappearances.  The unprecedented threat from Malaysia to break the
non-interference code over political repression in Burma has the potential
to reshape regional diplomacy positively. Willing interference in Burma
from ASEAN would be a far more powerful lever than the economic sanctions
and condemnation Western nations can dish out.

When Burma gained ASEAN membership in 1997 the military regime in Rangoon
won the benefits of regional co-operation, but accepted no constraints on
repression at home. The political map of South-East Asia, however, has
been shifting since the 1980s as more affluent populations have demanded
accountable and democratic governments. The recent election of the
reformist Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono as president in Indonesia and Abdullah
Ahmad Badawi as prime minister in Malaysia has tipped the balance inside
ASEAN.  Malaysia, due to assume the rotating chairmanship later this year,
is manoeuvering to have Burma, next in line for 2006, passed over for the
ASEAN chairmanship. Malaysia's Parliament will also demand the release of
Burma's pro- democracy leader, Aung San Suu Kyi.

Whether ASEAN will manage to speak as one on Burma is not yet clear.

Indonesia, Singapore and the Philippines have expressed their dismay over
Burma's intransigence. But Thailand, now a mainly stable democracy, is
wary of stoking opposition inside Burma which may spill, as it has before,
across its borders. Many powerful Thais also have lucrative business
interests linked to Burma's junta. China, too, is an important player.
Beijing is keen to reap the benefits of access to Burma's rich natural
resources. The increasing integration of ASEAN economies with China's
booming markets means Beijing may be able to pressure Malaysia to back
off. ASEAN, however,  also realises its continuing tolerance of Burma
could damage ties to the  European Union and the United States, both of
which promise a comprehensive  boycott if Burma manages to assume the
ASEAN chairmanship. Australia, with its recently enhanced links to ASEAN,
should amplify this message.