BurmaNet News, April 13, 2005

[Editor]

April 13, 2005 Issue # 2696

"Anyone found guilty of instigating unrest and disrupting national unity
will be punished effectively," the Thingyan Disciplinary Committee warned.

- quote from “Myanmar celebrates Buddhist new year [Thingyan], with
discipline,” Agence France Presse, April 13, 2005


INSIDE BURMA
AFP: Myanmar celebrates Buddhist new year, with discipline
DVB via BBC: Ethnic groups welcome defection of Burma diplomat in USA

ON THE BORDER
Bangkok Post: Stray shells land on Thai soil
Thai Press Reports: Thai villagers flee home after fighting inside Myanmar

DRUGS
Bangkok Post: Drug situation along frontier highly volatile
Thai Press Reports: Thailand launches another war on drugs

ASEAN
AP: Philippines wants Myanmar to carry out promised democratic reforms by
July
IHT: Asean puts ball in Myanmar's court; Junta is likely to take turn at
chairmanship

REGIONAL
Bangkok Post: Burma's nationality check `a ploy'

INTERNATIONAL
Thai Press Reports: Swedish parliamentarians sign Manila declaration on
Myanmar (Burma)

OPINION / OTHER
Korea Herald: Thaksin rising as regional leader?

____________________________________
INSIDE BURMA

April 13, Agence France Presse
Myanmar celebrates Buddhist new year, with discipline

Yangon: Thousands took to the streets in Myanmar's capital Wednesday to
celebrate the three-day water festival that marks the Buddhist new year,
under the strict watch of the military's festival disciplinary committee.

The Myanmar new year of 1367 begins on April 17, preceded by the three-day
Thingyan water festival, the country's most popular holiday when people
fill the streets and throw water on each other during the hottest period
of the year.

The security-conscious military government, leery of the crowds taking to
the streets, has warned against any "instigation," limited alcohol sales
and threatened to jail people found selling water balloons.

Such restrictions are traditional at this time of year.

"Anyone found guilty of instigating unrest and disrupting national unity
will be punished effectively," the Thingyan Disciplinary Committee warned.

The committee also warned against unruly behavior, decadent dress, as well
as speech and actions contrary to Myanmar culture and customs.

The junta also banned high-pressure hoses above 45 kilograms (100 pounds)
that could cause serious ear and eye injuries and other bodily harm.

"Sale of water balloons and plastic ice-packs to throw at others is liable
to a five-year jail term, while those found in possession or caught using
them will get one- and three-year jail terms respectively," another
warning said.

Despite these official warnings in the state press and private
publications, and defying the intense noon-day heat, Yangon residents
appeared bent on forgetting all their woes, temporarily at least.

Some residents used tonnes of timber to erect water-throwing platforms
along the city's streets and especially on the banks of Inya Lake, where
water could be pumped up in abundance. But anyone wishing to douse others
from the platforms has to pay 50,000 kyats (about 55 dollars), meals and
cold drinks included, a lavish expense in a nation where wages start
around 7,000 kyats (eight dollars) a month.

Hundreds of Yangon residents roamed the streets in stripped-down motor
vehicles with the roofs taken off, rented for up to 150,000 kyats (about
165 dollars) a day.

The government has imposed a strict ban on alcohol sales from the vehicles
or near the water-throwing platforms, and also limited the hours for
throwing water, from 7:00 am to 6:00 pm.

____________________________________

April 13, Democratic Voice of Burma via BBC
Ethnic groups welcome defection of Burma diplomat in USA

Ethnic armed groups including the KNU [Karen National Union] have welcomed
the action of former Maj Aung Lynn Htut, who resigned as the State Peace
and Development Council's deputy chief of mission at the Burmese embassy
in Washington DC and sought political asylum in the US recently. They said
if he opposes the military junta's suppression and has a genuine desire to
join forces with the democratic forces, then he should be welcomed.

Maj Aung Lynn Htut served at LIB [Light Infantry Battalion] No 81 from
1979 to 1983 and was then transferred to the Military Intelligence
Service. He attended training courses conducted by the CIA and the DEA in
Washington DC. He was part of the team involved in the suppression of
narcotic drugs and to negotiate cease-fire agreements with the ethnic
armed groups from 1992 to 1999. It has been learned that he was part of
the junta's negotiation team at the cease-fire talks with the KNU in 1996.

Current KNU General Secretary Phado Mahn Sha, who met Maj Aung Lynn Htut
at the cease-fire talks in 1996, gave the following view to DVB
[Democratic Voice of Burma] regarding Maj Aung Lynn Htut's defection.

[Phado Mahn Sha] I met with Maj Aung Lin Htut during the negotiations in
1996. At the time, apart from him, there were some refined military
intelligence officers. He resigned as deputy chief of mission at the
Burmese embassy in Washington DC due to their internal problems. But since
he sought political asylum, I think he should be welcomed if he really
departs from the military dictatorship and joins the people. But currently
we do not know anything about his political asylum status. I feel if he
abandons military dictatorship and joins the people, we should welcome
him. [End of recording]

That was the view of KNU General Secretary Phado Mahn Sha. U Raymond Htoo,
General Secretary of the KNPP, Karenni National Progressive Party, which
is still engaged in armed struggle against the SPDC [State Peace and
Development Council], gave the following view:

[U Raymond Htoo] In my view it seems he dissociated himself from the
military dictatorship. It would be better if there are more people like
him. Even better, if people of higher status realize that the situation is
not good. That would be good for us as well as Burma. In accordance with
our belief of forgiveness, we should accept him. Furthermore, it would be
much better for the future of Burma because he realized what the SPDC had
done and could participate in the change in Burma.

____________________________________
ON THE BORDER

April 13, Bangkok Post
Stray shells land on Thai soil - Subin Khuenkaew

Mae Hong Son: Yesterday's fighting between the United Wa State Army and
the anti-Rangoon Shan State Army in Burma opposite Pang Ma Pha district
prompted a security beef-up along the border after more than 30 mortar
shells strayed into Thai territory.

The UWSA's 171st brigade began shelling the SSA's Ban Mai Lan stronghold
with 82mm mortar guns at 5am yesterday in an all-out effort to seize the
base, but failed, as the SSA guerrillas once again repelled the attack.

The Third Army was worried that if the the fighting continues at this
rate, more stray shells would rain on Thai territory.

This was the second clash between the UWSA and the SSA this month. The
first one, from April 1-5, saw UWSA soldiers mounting an unsuccesful
attack on the SSA base on Doi Tailang. The Wa forces have now reinforced
their troop strength in the area by another 1,000 fighters called in from
Pang Sang town.

Third Army deputy commander Maj-Gen Manas Paorik has ordered the Naresuan
and Pha Muang task forces to watch the situation closely, retaliate if
attacked, disarm and push back armed intruders, and evacuate those
residing near the border to safer areas if necessary.

Yesterday's clash in Ban Mai Lan in Pang Ma Pha district, about 2km away
from the SSA headquarters on Doi Tailang, prompted the 7th infantry
special task force of Mae Hong Son to seal the border to prevent
intrusions and ensure the safety of Thais. A helicopter gunship was also
deployed to patrol the troubled border.

Mae Hong Son Governor Supoj Laowansiri, as director of the provincial
border command centre, instructed Pang Ma Pha district chief Veerasak
Sirisidh to keep Ban Mai Lan villagers out of harm's way.

SSA leader Col Chao Yodsuek said failure of Monday's peace talks between
the two warring sides in Mae Sai district, Chiang Rai, was a clear
indication that UWSA representatives wanted to ``fight first, talk later''
in line with Rangoon's wishes.

An SSA source said on condition of anonymity that heavily-armed Burmese
troops from Kengtung were marching to Ban Mai Lan to reinforce the Wa
forces.

_____________________________________

April 14, Thai Press Reports
Thai villagers flee home after fighting inside Myanmar

Section: General News - Residents in a Thai village in this northern
province fled from their homes Tuesday morning for fear of possible
attacks following fighting between two armed groups on Myanmar border.

The ethnic Shan guerrillas have retaliated after their base in Doi Tai Lae
opposite Thailand was attacked by some 700 armed men from the United Wa
State Army. Casualties were unknown for the time being.

Residents of Ban Mai Lan, about 2 kilometres from the Thai-Myanmar border
where the fighting took place, fled their village and have been
temporarily sheltered in a camp on Thai soil.

Soldiers from the 7th Special Battalion were despatched to the area to
prevent the fighting from spilling over into Thai territory, said the
reporter.

_____________________________________
DRUGS

April 13, Bangkok Post
Drug situation along frontier highly volatile - Wassana Nanuam

The drug situation along the Thai-Burmese border remains highly volatile,
as United Wa State Army soldiers are increasing the production of
methamphetamines following reports Burma wants to shut down their drug
business, Third Army commander Lt-Gen Picharnmet Muangmanee said
yesterday.

The general said he could not estimate how many million speed pills were
being produced in the latest run. There was also an unknown amount which
had already been manufactured but which could not be trafficked into
Thailand and had been hidden at the border, he said.

An army source said Wa minority forces had asked the Burmese military
junta for permission to continue producing methamphetamines in exchange
for its attacks on the Shan State Army (SSA) for Rangoon.

The source said more than 1,000 Wa soldiers from Pangsang had been
deployed at the border for an attack on Doi Tailang, the SSA's major
stronghold opposite Mae Hong Son's Pang Ma Pha district.

The forces brought with them 30 million speed pills and two tonnes of
heroin, the source said. ``That can cause heavy drug problems at the
border,'' he said.

Lt-Gen Picharnmet said part of the methamphetamines had been smuggled into
Thailand via Laos, but major production sources and trafficking routes
remained close to the Thai-Burmese border. A drug suppression campaign has
been launched since March and will end in May, he said.

Third Army deputy chief Maj-Gen Manas Paorik said Thai troops would step
up crackdowns on traffickers.

He said the southern region had become a transit point for the smuggling
of methamphetamines into Malaysia, South Korea, Japan and Australia.

Drug trafficking via the Mekong river also had turned many farm villages
in Laos into affluent communities, Maj-Gen Manas said.

``Those farmers now have big houses with satellite dishes in their
backyards. They are rich now,'' he said.

Lt-Gen Picharnmet said the Third Army and the Doi Tung Royal Project had
already scrapped their assistance to various development projects for
ethnic Wa, including the 30-million-baht Yongkha village development
project and development of twin villages at the border costing 20 million
baht, because the minority group did not stop producing drugs.

Many Wa leaders also were blacklisted and wanted by the United States on
drug charges, he said.

Military coordinators had been pulled out since February, he said.

Drug suppression and problems concerning minority tribes in Burma will be
discussed at the Thai-Burmese regional border committee to be held in
Kengtung on April 29 and 30.

_____________________________________

April 14, Thai Press Reports
Thailand launches another war on drugs

Human-rights activists fear another spate of extrajudicial killings, The
Nation reports.

Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra has launched a new round of the War on
Drugs, sparking fears that drastic action could lead to another wave of
extrajudicial killings and further tarnish the country's standing on human
rights.

We will pay extra attention to former convicts and drug suspects who have
had arrest warrants issued against them, Thaksin said, as representatives
from relevant agencies gathered to hear his anti-drugs policy.

Thaksin said the first War on Drugs was the government policy that the
public was most happy with during the last administration. The new
crackdown will last from this month until June.

And as long as I am the prime minister, the scourge of drugs will never be
able to frighten people again, he said.

Human right activists day expressed concern over the new war'', saying the
government had not yet answered questions over extrajudicial killings
stemming from the last crackdown.

Up to 3,000 people died in the first round of the war on drugs, from
February to April 2003.

Many countries, including the United States, strongly criticised the
campaign and called on the government to explain the high death toll.

Thaksin instructed authorities to get serious about eradicating illicit
drugs and told senior officials to transfer subordinates who fail to
perform up to scratch.

He urged the Metropolitan Police Bureau to step up its fight against
drugs, saying illicit drugs were available again at entertainment venues
in the capital.

Thaksin said narcotics traffickers were currently avoiding the Thai-Burma
border due to the heavy presence of anti-drug officials, and were now
sending drugs into the country via Laos and Cambodia.

Stop them [drug dealers]. Don't fear anyone. The government will protect
you, he said.

Thaksin said anti-drug officials in charge of Thai-Burma border zones
should share their experiences with their counterparts at other border
zones so that they can prevent the flow of drugs into the country.

According to the premier, the Office of Narcotic Control Board (ONCB) will
monitor each agency's performance.

I will consider rewards for the successful agencies, especially those
managing to nab major drug traffickers, Thaksin said.

ONCB deputy secretary-general Chatchai Suttiklom said his agency was
expecting to reduce the number of drug abusers across the country to less
than 60,000 by June and would make the country drug-free by the end of the
year.

We will put drug abusers in drug-rehabilitation programmes. If they return
to their drug habit after that, we will catch them and send them to jail,
Chatchai said.

The ONCB was co-operating closely with Lao and Cambodian authorities, he
said, and the three countries were united in the fight against the illegal
drug trade.

Their [Laos and Cambodia] situation is like us in the past. Drug abusers
also serve as small-scale drug pushers because they want money to pay for
their drug habit, he said.

_____________________________________
ASEAN

April 13, Associated Press
Philippines wants Myanmar to carry out promised democratic reforms by July
- Jim Gomez

Manila: Foreign Secretary Alberto Romulo on Wednesday said he had urged
Myanmar to introduce promised democratic reforms by July, when ASEAN
foreign ministers plan to meet in Laos, to ease international opposition
to its chairmanship of the regional bloc next year.

Romulo said he reiterated Manila's call for the ruling junta to free
pro-democracy leader Aung San Suu Kyi from house arrest, craft a new
constitution and allow a U.N. special envoy to visit, at a meeting of
foreign ministers from the Association of Southeast Asian Nations in the
central Philippines on Monday.

"The Myanmar representative said that he will convey the concerns, of
course the fears that were expressed, to the leadership," Romulo told a
news conference.

Foreign ministers attending the annual ASEAN retreat in Cebu agreed to
discuss Myanmar further at their next meeting, in Laos in July, in the
hope that the country would be able to address their concerns by then,
Romulo said.

Western nations have long condemned the human rights record of Myanmar,
also known as Burma, and their concerns have become more of a focus as
Myanmar's turn to take the leadership of the regional bloc approaches.

The United States and European Union have threatened to boycott any
meetings hosted by Myanmar, while Malaysian and Philippine legislators,
along with pro-democracy groups, have warned that ASEAN could lose
credibility if Myanmar takes its chair without substantial democratic
reforms.

Nevertheless, the ASEAN foreign ministers at the Cebu retreat left the
military-ruled nation to decide for itself whether to assume the group's
chair in 2006, declining to contravene the group's policy of not
interfering in each other's affairs.

The Myanmar issue has divided ASEAN, with Cambodia, Laos and Vietnam
reportedly backing Myanmar's right to the rotating chairmanship. Malaysia,
the Philippines and Singapore have indicated they want to see progress in
implementing reforms first.

ASEAN, founded in 1967, groups Brunei, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos,
Malaysia, Myanmar, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, and Vietnam. It
admitted Myanmar in 1997 despite strong opposition from Western nations.

_____________________________________

April 13, International Herald Tribune
Asean puts ball in Myanmar's court; Junta is likely to take turn at
chairmanship - Carlos H. Conde

Mactan Island, Philippines: When officials from a number of Southeast
Asian countries expressed their concerns over the past week about the
repercussions of Myanmar's impending chairmanship of the Association of
Southeast Asian Nations, many observers here thought that they would echo
the positions of the United States and the European Union, which do not
want the military junta that controls Myanmar to have the position because
of the its poor human rights record.

But as the foreign ministers of the 10 Asean members met informally in
this island resort in the central Philippines during the weekend, it
became evident that they thought an overbearing attitude toward Myanmar
might not do the trick in convincing it either to give up the chairmanship
or to put even token democratic reforms in place.

By the end of the retreat, the consensus among the ministers was
apparently to give Myanmar a chance to prove itself. Myanmar's leaders,
meanwhile, had shown no signs of backing down from their desire to occupy
the chairmanship. Barring any major shift in positions among the members,
there does not seem to be any impediment to Myanmar's taking over the
chairmanship, which is rotated alphabetically among the members.

According to diplomats here who spoke privately, Myanmar must be given the
chance to save face while, at the same time, Asean cannot be seen as
responding to pressure from the Americans and the Europeans.

Asean foreign ministers discussed the Myanmar's chairmanship during a
45-minute coffee break on the last day of the retreat, which means their
remarks and any decisions would not be noted in the official proceedings.

Foreign Minister George Yeo of Singapore called the coffee break chat a
"family discussion, and a family discussion should be private and
intimate."

This strategy, according to one Indonesian diplomat, was adopted to avoid
any appearance that the Asean ministers were ganging up on Myanmar at the
behest of the United States and Europe.

Diplomats said the Asean solution was a master stroke of diplomacy that
signified Asean's desire to keep itself intact, but at the same time
acknowledged the contradiction of having an undemocratic country leading
an organization that is supposed to foster democratic ideals.

An Indonesian official called it the good-cop, bad-cop routine: the Asean
ministers were the good cops while the bad cops were the United States and
the European Union.

Yeo said Myanmar "knows that there is a reluctance on the part of Asean to
take the chairmanship away from anybody. That will set a very dangerous
and bad precedent." At the same time, Yeo said "there were very serious
concerns expressed by the members."

"It is a tough decision they got to make and the earlier they make it, I
think the better it is for their own domestic political process," Yeo
said.

"We don't want Asean to be dragged into Myanmar's own internal politics,"
he added

The United States and the European Union applied sanctions against Myanmar
in 2003 after the junta arrested Aung San Suu Kyi, the opposition leader
and Nobel laureate. Human rights groups, the United Nations and the U.S.
State Department have castigated Myanmar for its human rights violations,
including the imprisonment of political activists and journalists.

Within the Asean, there have been criticisms of the strident complaints
against Myanmar coming from the United States and Europe. These
complaints, according to diplomats in the organization, could undermine
the "constructive engagement" policy that Asean wants to maintain toward
Myanmar. Asean, one diplomat said, wanted to bend over backward as far as
possible to avoid Myanmar's disintegration.

A Laotian diplomat said the Myanmar issue goes far beyond the question of
human rights. If not handled properly, and if Asean is seen as buckling to
the pressure by the United States and Europe, Myanmar could end up a
divided country "like Yugoslavia," referring to the serious political and
ethnic instability in Myanmar.

"It is in the interest of Asean to have a stable Myanmar," the diplomat said.

Asean, founded in 1967, is composed of Brunei, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos,
Malaysia, Myanmar, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam.

Within Asean, Myanmar has support from Laos, Vietnam, Cambodia and, to
some extent, Thailand. These alliances, according to Sunai Phasuk, a
Myanmar expert for Human Rights Watch based in Bangkok, support the Asean
policy of "non-interference" in the internal affairs of its members that
makes it difficult for the international community to make Myanmar
accountable for issues such as human rights abuses.

Myanmar also enjoys the support of India and China.

However, Singapore, the biggest foreign investor in Myanmar, has been
vocal lately about its desire to see Myanmar become more democratic.

"This is not the world asking Burma to bend to its will. It is merely
asking Burma to fulfill its promises," Phasuk said in defense of the
pressure on Myanmar formerly Burma from the West. He was referring to the
military junta's promise to follow a "democracy road map," which includes
political reforms and the release of activists and journalists.

Phasuk said sanctions and pressures were necessary to show the military
rulers in Myanmar that "they will not be recognized as long as they
continue treating their people inhumanely."

Benito Lim, an expert on Southeast Asian affairs at the Ateneo de Manila
University, fears that the "interference" by the United States in Asean
issues will have far-reaching implications for the regional group.

"This means that the next time the U.S. does not want somebody within the
Asean, the Americans can always use threat and intimidation," he said.

If the West succeeds in blocking Myanmar from the Asean chairmanship, Lim
said, "it would mean that the Asean is not independent, that it doesn't
respect the sovereignty of nations."

Lim and Phasuk agreed, however, on one thing: Myanmar will elevate human
rights into an important issue within the Asean.

Phasuk said "If Asean can make a decisive common position that from now
Asean cannot engage in any regime that violates human rights, the whole
Asean people not just the Burmese can benefit from it."

Lim, however, cautioned that Asean could not be selective in applying
standards on human rights.

"If the issue is about human rights, the standards should be applied
equally," he said, adding that some countries in the Asean, such as the
Philippines, also have poor human rights record.

"I have yet to hear the Asean complain about the increasing number of
executions of Filipino activists by state forces," Lim said.

_____________________________________
REGIONAL

April 13, Bangkok Post
Burma's nationality check `a ploy' - Achara Ashayagachat Penchan
Charoensuthipan

Calling back migrants to pressure Asean

Burma's suggestion that Thailand send a million Burmese migrant workers to
Rangoon for nationality verification is a ploy to pressure Bangkok not to
join calls on Burma to pass over its turn to chair Asean, activists on the
Burma issue alleged.

Senate foreign affairs committee chairman Kraisak Choonhavan said his
committee was considering the link between Rangoon's recent suggestion to
bring migrant workers to Rangoon or the border for citizenship
verification and the international pressure upon Burma over the Asean
chairmanship.

Asean, whose members include Burma and Thailand, is due to choose its new
chairman and it is Burma's turn to take up the post.

Some Asean members, including Malaysia and the Philippines, have suggested
Burma be bypassed because of its human rights record.

Thailand has for a number of years asked Burma, Cambodia and Laos to help
verify their large numbers of illegal migrant workers in the kingdom.

Myint Wai, a Burmese activist with the Thai Action Committee for Democracy
in Burma, said it was a political ploy to persuade Thailand not to join
the international and regional campaign against Burma's Asean chairmanship
in 2006.

``Thailand should protest to Burma on its ridiculous response since it
does nothing to help solve the [problem of] illegal immigrants here,''
said Mr Myint Wai.

It was not in the interests of Thailand or the workers to have the process
take place at the border or in Rangoon, ``Who will pay for the
transportation and accommodation and who will take care of workers'
security?'' he said.

He also said recent border bickering at Three Pagodas Pass in Kanchanaburi
province, in which Rangoon demanded 50 Mon villages be removed from
overlapping border area claims in Sangkhlaburi, and protests against
Thailand's killing of a Burmese soldier, were ``warm-up exercises'' for
Rangoon when it was dissatisfied with Thailand's policy or attitude.

The National Security Council sought consultation with Deputy Prime
Minister Surakiart Sathirathai last month to resolve the disputes.

Vice chairman of Burma's ruling State Peace and Development Council Gen
Maung Aye informed Supreme Commander Gen Chaisit Shinawatra in February
that verification of migrants' nationalities must be done on Burmese
territory so authorities could issue passports or travel papers for them
to work in Thailand.

Labour Minister Sora-at Klinprathum said it was not easy to transport
hundreds of thousands of workers to Rangoon or the border and the process
could take four to five years.

The committee for administration of illegal immigrants, chaired by Mr
Surakiart, would discuss the issue urgently, he said.

Laos and Cambodia have already cooperated with Thailand to try to resolve
the illegal labour problem by sending officials to verify and issue
temporary passports for their nationals working in Thailand.

Burma, which has some 920,000 people temporarily registered as workers in
Thailand, should also be cooperative, labour sources said.

Nearly 1,300 out of 179,887 Lao migrant workers had been ``legalised'' in
the first batch. The remainder would be verified later this month when Lao
officials returned for the second time.

Cambodian officials were also starting the same process for 183,541
Cambodians.

_____________________________________
INTERNATIONAL

April 13, Thai Press Reports
Swedish parliamentarians sign Manila declaration on Myanmar (Burma)

Swedish parliamentarians from the left, middle and right scale of politics
have signed a common Nordic declaration in Manila conditioning Burma's
upcoming chairmanship of Asean 2006.

The Nordic parliamentarians demand that the opposition leader Aung San Suu
Kyi and other political prisoners in Burma must be released and real
political reforms introduced before the country can be allowed to chair
Asean.

The eight Swedish parliamentarians participated in the IPU spring session,
held in Manila between 3 and 8 April.

_____________________________________
OPINION / OTHER

April 13, Korea Herald
Thaksin rising as regional leader?

The retirements from frontline politics of Singapore's Lee Kuan Yew and
Malaysia's Mahathir Mohamed have deprived Southeast Asia of its senior
leaders. Can Thailand's Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra fill the
regional leadership vacuum?

A series of bold foreign-policy strokes - the Asia Cooperation Dialogue,
the Economic Cooperation Strategy for the development of mainland
Southeast Asia, and America's designation of Thailand as a "major non-NATO
ally" - turned the international spotlight on Thaksin during his first
term. Violence in Thailand's predominantly Muslim south seemed to dent his
ambitions last year, but his Thai Rak Thai (TRT) party's landslide victory
last February gave his bid for regional leadership a new lease on life.

With the TRT capturing over 75 percent of the seats in the lower house of
parliament, Thaksin is now politically invincible at home. Indeed, he has
become the first elected Thai leader to finish a four-year term, be
re-elected, and preside over a one-party government. Thaksin's dominance
of Thai politics is unprecedented, and his resilient popularity in the
face of a fickle electorate is unparalleled.

Apart from his complete control of domestic politics, Thaksin commands
other prerequisites of regional leadership. Already eyeing a third term,
he can count on political longevity on the order of Mahathir's 22-year
rule. Notwithstanding the one-party system that the TRT is cultivating,
Thaksin is armed with democratic legitimacy in a global arena bent on
democracy promotion, and he speaks English decently enough to articulate
his views and vision to a global audience.

He even has his own development strategy, dubbed "Thaksinomics," a
self-styled approach that blends neo-liberal export-led growth with
grassroots-based domestic demand. The Thai economy emerged out of its
post-1997 crisis doldrums under Thaksin's watch, and is now firmly
positioned on a 6 percent annual growth trajectory. While it relies on
profligate subsidies and cash handouts, Thaksinomics also banks on
structural reforms to propel economic growth.

The strategy's most promising prospects include the promotion of
industrial upgrading, niche industries, and competitiveness-boosting
cluster projects that aim to make Thailand a global and regional hub for
food, fashion, tourism, automobiles, and healthcare. A vibrant economy -
GDP growth is second only to China's in Asia - is indispensable for
regional leadership.

Of the policies that will determine his future role in the region, the
Asia Cooperation Dialogue and Economic Cooperation Strategy stand out.
Based on the concept of "Asia for Asians," the nascent ACD's membership
straddles the Asian landmass from the Korean Peninsula to the Middle East,
with Thailand at the geographic center. Although its future directions are
uncertain, this 26-member forum trumps Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation,
the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), and ASEAN+3, which
includes China, Japan, and South Korea.

The region-wide crisis in 1997, weak progress on free trade, and the
region's security vulnerabilities have made Thaksin aware of ASEAN's
limitations. As Indonesia's size makes it a natural leader of ASEAN, the
ACD lends Thaksin a broader platform that stresses Thailand's geographical
advantages. It allows him to trumpet Thailand's strategic objectives and
the region's major issues, sometimes in confrontation with the interests
and the demands of the West. Within the ACD framework, Thaksin launched
the $1 billion "Asia Bond" last year in an effort to match Asia's
financial capital with its financing requirements.

In a smaller sphere of operations, the ECS envisages economic development
in Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar, and Vietnam. Under Thaksin, Thailand graduated
from aid recipient and became a donor country for the first time, having
turned away development assistance from countries like Japan. A Thai fund
of 10 billion baht was established to provide outright aid and soft loans
to the ECS members. Like the ACD, the ECS shifts Thai foreign policy
priorities to the Southeast Asian mainland, highlighting Thailand's role
and Thaksin's canny leadership.

Two major obstacles stand in Thaksin's way. The raging violence in
southern Thailand over the past 15 months has made him look bad, as his
myriad strategies and tactics have failed repeatedly. Nor have his bluster
and ill temper improved matters. Thaksin initially dismissed the violent
attacks as the work of bandits. Only late last year did he admit that
southern Muslim separatism was the cause.

Signs of a symbiotic relationship between local separatists and regional
terrorists have emerged. If the attacks widen beyond the three
southernmost provinces of Yala, Pattani, and Narathiwat, Thaksin's
regional leadership chances will be dimmed.

Thaksin knows this. Since his sweeping re-election, he has been
surprisingly modest and magnanimous. He has appointed Anand Panyarachun, a
former Thai prime minister who recently headed a United Nations reform
panel, to select and direct a blue-ribbon national commission to seek
reconciliation with the southern separatists.

In addition, Thaksin will have to do something about Myanmar if the
international community is to accept his wider role. To many, Thai-Myanmar
relations are too cozy. Critics accuse Thaksin of conflicts of interest,
as his family-owned telecommunications conglomerate holds sizeable
investments in Myanmar.

It is now largely up to Thaksin himself. If he is enlightened enough to
make amends with disaffected southerners and move beyond his vested
interests in Myanmar, he retains a good shot at becoming Asia's next
spokesman.

Thitinan Pongsudhirak, a professor of political science at Chulalongkorn
University in Bangkok, is currently a visiting research fellow at the
Institute of Southeast Asian Studies in Singapore.