BurmaNet News, July 27, 2005

[Editor]

July 27, 2005 Issue # 2769


INSIDE BURMA
Irrawaddy: Burma’s wasted investment

ON THE BORDER
Irrawaddy: A life in hiding

BUSINESS
AFX: Thailand's PTT Exploration signs contract for Myanmar oil, gas
exploration
Xinhua: Burma, China striving for 1.5bn dollars worth of trade

ASEAN
AP: Chinese cuts short ASEAN visit, to travel to Myanmar
AP: Friends, foes hail Myanmar decision to skip ASEAN chair, as clamor for
Suu Kyi release rises

REGIONAL
Irrawaddy: Junta appoints new Ambassador to Thailand

INTERNATIONAL
Irrawaddy: UN votes to protect children in armed conflict

OPINION / OTHER
Nation: Keep the pressure up on Burma
Financial Times: Burmese nights
Irrawaddy: Rangoon the economic spoiler

PRESS RELEASE
ALTSEAN: Deferred chair not an excuse to forget about Burma, say activists

____________________________________
INSIDE BURMA

June 27, Irrawaddy
Burma’s wasted investment - Toby Hudson

The Burmese government’s decision to forgo the Asean chairmanship in 2006
means millions of US dollars invested in developing and beautifying
Rangoon may go to waste.

Since early 2003, the junta has sped up several development projects
designed to revamp the city, including the construction of apartments to
house Asean delegates—worth 2 billion kyat (about US $1.8 million)—and the
National Convention Centre, designed to host the 2006 summit and
reportedly worth a similar amount.

An overhaul of Kandawgyi Park in the center of Rangoon also began in 2003
and was expected to finish in time for the 2006 summit. The development
was thought to be worth at least US $5 million. The extension of the
Yangon [Rangoon] International Airport is believed to have been started in
preparation for the summit and is due for completion in July 2006.

Across Rangoon, high-rise buildings have been cropping up since early 2003
after the Yangon City Development Council fast-tracked building permits in
an attempt to refurbish the capital.

A Rangoon-based journalist told The Irrawaddy the government had “even
ordered [taxi] drivers not to chew beetle nuts and spit on the road,” or
urinate in public places to prevent the city from looking dirty.

Burmese economists had hailed the coming summit as a means to kick-start
the economy and increase the country’s employment levels, with well-known
economist Dr Maung Maung Soe telling The Myanmar Times: “I certainly think
it is true that employment . . . will have increased a lot as a result of
the coming summit, and I think that this will give the economy enough of a
boost to get some momentum going.”

But the government’s substantial development investments are likely to be
seen as a waste after their decision to give up the Asean chair was
announced on Tuesday.

One high profile Burmese developer and a member of the Myanmar
Construction Entrepreneurs Association said he believed developments in
Rangoon would slow and projects planned for completion in 2006 would now
take longer.

“Those developments [designed to beautify the city before the summit] will
now maybe not be finished until 2007 or 2008,” he said.

Several developments along Kaba Aye Pagoda road—one of the main arteries
from the airport to downtown Rangoon—have sat empty, and in some cases
unfinished, since 2003 when they were built to give Rangoon a modern look.

The government’s decision to relinquish the Asean chair has compounded
property developers’ worst fears—development levels in the capital have
been unsustainable and the oversupply of housing may further depress the
ailing market.

____________________________________
ON THE BORDER

July 25, Irrawaddy
A life in hiding - Yeni/Ler Per Her

Karen Internally Displaced Persons wonder when they will be able to go home

Sitting in his new bamboo hut in Ler Per Her camp for Internally Displaced
Persons, located on the bank of Thailand’s Moei River near the border with
Burma, Phar The Tai—a skinny, tough-looking man of 60 who used to hide in
the jungles and mountains of Burma’s eastern Karen State—waits for the
time when he can return home.

“We are living in fear all the time,” he says about the lives of IDPs. His
words reflect the general feeling among IDPs from Karen State, which has
produced the largest number of displaced people in Burma.

Since 2002 at least 100,000 ethnic Karen have been displaced because of
fighting between the Burmese army and the Karen National Liberation Army,
and to avoid abuses at the hands of Rangoon soldiers. The livelihoods of
these people have been undermined by the “systematic use of forced labor,
restrictions placed on farmers’ access to their land and the confiscation
of land and property,” according to the Norwegian Refugee Council.

At least 650,000 have been displaced along Burma’s eastern border—most are
living in Karen, Karenni, Mon and Shan states—because of armed conflicts
and human rights abuses such as forced labor and forced relocation by the
Burmese army and its proxies. The majority of IDPs were the direct result
of the Tatmadaw’s (armed forces) “four cuts” counter-insurgency strategy,
which involves cutting off the ethnic rebels’ access to food, revenue from
taxes, recruits and information, as numerous human rights groups have
noted.

Ler Per Her is a jungle camp located about 100 kilometers north of the
Thai border town Mae Sot. A group of 670 people, including many children,
lives in fragile bamboo huts in this small Karen National Union-controlled
area. The camp operates like a well-organized and stable village situated
within the mountainous border region of eastern Karen State, and contains
a clinic, school, church and a water system.

The camp’s clinic is a busy place, with patients registering for
healthcare, having their blood tested, and receiving a host of other
treaments. Children are particularly at risk in the camp. Malaria,
pneumonia and serious gastrointestinal problems like diarrhoea and
dysentery are common in the rainy season to those living in the deep
monsoon forest. The largest aid group working with Burmese refugees, the
Thailand Burma Border Consortium, has reported that child mortality and
malnutrition rates among IDPs are double Burma’s national average.

Saw Eh Nge, a 42-year-old chief medic, worries that the children will
suffer greater incidents of illness as the rainy season progresses. “We
can still take care of them,” he says, “but if the patient reaches a
critical point, we will transfer them to the hospital in Mae La refugee
camp, which is better than here.”

Access to education is also limited for IDPs. Despite the presence of a
primary school in the camp, students lack textbooks, pencils and other
educational materials—they even lack sufficient light to study at night.
Nevertheless, the young Karen teachers are hopeful and enthusiastic, and
the KNU education department has established a curriculum and examination
system. “Whether or not the students continue their studies afterwards,
the education they receive here provides the foundation for a better life
in the future,” says 28-year-old Rainbow, who heads the school.

There may be hardships in Ler Per Her, but life across the border can be
precarious.  The Burmese army continues to “target civilians in its war
against ethnic insurgents, forcibly displacing large numbers of poor
villagers,” New York-based Human Rights Watch has reported.

Traditionally, the Karen people—7 percent of Burma’s population and the
second largest of Burma’s ethnic minorities—have lived a peacful life of
cultivating rice and vegetables, hunting in the jungle and fishing in the
streams to get supplementary food. However the continued aggression in
Karen State by the army has prevented many Karen civilians from earning a
living and compelled them to flee their villages. Their survival depends
on their ability to hide safely in the jungle.

According to Phar The Tae, his family and 50 other Karen families moved
frequently in the jungle until their arrival at Ler Per Her. “We had
nothing to eat, but we didn’t want to meet the Burmese soldiers,” he said.
“We were afraid of being conscripted as porters.”

Some displaced Karen have entered Thailand as refugees to avoid
exploitation at the hands of Burmese soldiers. However, they are not
always allowed to cross the border; and when they are allowed, the Thai
authorities can only provide a short-term solution. “If there is fighting,
they [Thai authorities] grant the civilians permission to cross the
border. But when there is no fighting, they don’t,” said a local KNU
commander.

The KNU has said that the resettlement of IDPs is a top priority. Since it
reached a “gentlemen’s agreement” for a ceasefire with the junta in
December 2003, “some parts of Karen State have begun to see less fighting
and fewer incidents of human rights violations, such as extrajudicial
executions and torture, than before,” says secretary of the Committee for
Internally Displaced Karen People, Saw Hla Henry. “But there is still
widespread use of forced labor,” he adds.

Saw Hla Henry is also a member of the central executive committee of the
KNU. Refering to the regime’s frequent accusation that the KNU is playing
politics with refugees, Saw Hla Henry responds: “The KNU is working for
the Karen people, so we are always with them.”

Nevertheless, IDPs in Ler Per Her, such as Phar The Tae, are obviously not
armed Karen fighters. They are victims of Burma’s ongoing civil war. “The
current situation is not clear yet,” said Phar The Tae. But he has not
given up his dream of going home. “I hope it will be a sweet home someday.
I have still enough strength to build a new house and farm again.”

____________________________________
BUSINESS

July 27, AFX International Focus
Thailand's PTT Exploration signs contract for Myanmar oil, gas exploration

Yangon: Thai state-energy firm PTT Exploration and Production
International has signed a deal with Myanmar to explore for oil and gas in
an offshore site, state-run media said.

Myanmar officials and Thailand's visiting Energy Minister Viset Choopiban
witnessed the signing on Monday between the Thai energy giant and the
Myanma Oil and Gas Enterprise for block M-11 in the Gulf of Martaban, the
New Light of Myanmar reported.

The production sharing contract allows the PTT EP subsidiary to be the
operator in the exploration of the block covering 7,200 square kilometers,
the company said in a statement to the Stock Exchange of Thailand.

'PTT EP plans for the geological and geophysical studies, seismic surveys,
and the drilling of one exploration well,' company president Maroot
Mrigadat said in the statement.

Neither the news report nor stock exchange filing provided financial details.

Last August, PTT EP International signed a deal to explore and develop two
offshore gas fields in Blocks M-3 and M-4.

In March, the military government here reportedly barred foreign firms
from onshore oil and gas exploration and production, saying the blocks
will be reserved for Myanma Oil and Gas Enterprise.

Gas production capacity averages around 1.0 bln cubic feet per day in
Myanmar, according to French oil group Total.

____________________________________

July 27, Xinhua news agency
Burma, China striving for 1.5bn dollars worth of trade

Yangon: Traders of Myanmar and China are striving to reach a targeted
bilateral trade volume of 1.5bn US dollars in the coming years set by the
two countries, a local news journal reported Tuesday [26 July].

As an initial step of the endeavour, businessmen of the two countries
signed trade deals worth 300m dollars early this month, with formal trade
contracts worth 176m and memorandums of understanding 124m, the Flower
News quoted business circle as saying.

According to the contracts, Myanmar is to export to China various items of
bean and pulse, maize, potato, eel, fish, prawn, crab, sesame and mango as
well as forest and metallic products.

In last May alone, Myanmar exported to China 20m dollars worth of such
goods, while importing 11m dollars' commodities including fertilizer, wax,
costic soda, paper, automobile spare parts, diesel engines and textile
products, a release of the Ministry of Commerce said.

Bilateral economic and trade relations between Myanmar and China have
maintained good development momentum in recent years. According to Chinese
official statistics, Myanmar-China bilateral trade, including the border
trade, reached 1.145bn dollars in 2004, up 6.3% from 2003. Of the total,
China's exports to Myanmar took 938m, while its imports from Myanmar
represented 207m.

Meanwhile, Myanmar's official figures show that China's contracted
investment in the country had amounted to 191m dollars in 25 projects as
of January this year.

____________________________________
ASEAN

July 27, Associated Press
Chinese cuts short ASEAN visit, to travel to Myanmar

Vientiane: China's foreign minister cut short a visit to Laos on
Wednesday, skipping a regional security forum to travel on to Myanmar.

There was no immediate official explanation for the change in plans, which
made Chinese Foreign Minister Li Zhaoxing the fourth top diplomat to skip
the annual security gathering of the 10-member Association of Southeast
Asian Nations and 14 other countries with interests in the region.

When asked why he was leaving early, Li quipped: "Myanmar is the only
country in ASEAN that I've never visited."

Li originally was due to attend the meetings in Laos through Friday and
then to pay visits to both Laos and Myanmar.

He joins U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, Japanese Foreign
Minister Nobutaka Machimura and India's foreign minister, Natawar Singh,
in skipping all or part of the annual security forum.

Communist-ruled China has been a stalwart supporter and source of aid for
the military-led government in Myanmar, which announced it would defer
taking its turn as ASEAN chairman next year in order to focus on political
reforms.

"We have a very good relationship with Myanmar," Li said.

Other diplomats attending the annual gathering in Laos said they
understood Li had other urgent business.

China is the host for six-nation talks on nuclear disarmament in North
Korea, now underway in Beijing. As a permanent member of the U.N. Security
Council, it also has a stake in ongoing negotiations on reforming the
United Nations.

"We understand that in today's world that things do crop up," said
Thailand's foreign minister, Surakiart Sathirathai, adding that he did not
view those absences as a slight to the region.

"We don't see it as a message," he said. "These are all situations that
they had some urgent things that they need to attend to and we hope that
they will join us next year."

____________________________________

July 27, Associated Press
Friends, foes hail Myanmar decision to skip ASEAN chair, as clamor for Suu
Kyi release rises - Vijay Joshi

Vientiane: Friends and critics of military-ruled Myanmar on Wednesday
welcomed its decision to skip the chairmanship of Southeast Asia's bloc
next year but warned it must get serious about establishing democracy and
free Nobel laureate Aung San Suu Kyi.

Myanmar's surprise decision grabbed all the attention this week at the
annual get-together of foreign ministers of the 10-member Association of
Southeast Asian Nations in Laos. The six-day conference ends Friday after
the ministers hold their annual security-oriented ASEAN Regional Forum
with 14 Western and Asian counterparts

By agreeing Tuesday to forgo the chairmanship, Myanmar gave ASEAN
breathing space in its confrontation with the U.S. and European Union over
the junta's failure to bring democracy.

Washington and the EU had threatened to boycott ASEAN meetings unless
Myanmar either released Suu Kyi from house arrest or forfeited its turn to
claim the bloc's rotating chairmanship. Most of Myanmar's ASEAN neighbors
had feared damage to their trade ties with the West.

But skipping the chairmanship doesn't solve Myanmar's problem, said U.S.
State Department spokesman Sean McCormack in Washington, noting that it
remains far from its stated goal of democracy. He renewed U.S. calls for
Suu Kyi to be released "immediately and unconditionally."

"Arrests of pro-democracy supporters continue unabated, as do egregious
human rights abuses," he said.

EU Foreign Policy chief Javier Solana welcomed the chairmanship deferral
as "going in the direction the European Union wants."

But EU sanctions against the Myanmar regime remain in place because it has
so far shown no signs of implementing promises to reform and release
political prisoners, Solana spokeswoman Cristina Gallach said.

"We do not see any change for the better," she said.

Myanmar has been controlled by the current junta since 1988 when it
crushed a pro-democracy uprising that saw Suu Kyi rise to prominence. The
generals called elections in 1990 but refused to hand over power when Suu
Kyi's party won, instead jailing hundreds of dissidents.

Suu Kyi spent 10 of the last 16 years in detention. Her latest house
arrest started in May 2003.

Myanmar justified its giving up of the chairmanship by saying it is
preoccupied with "national reconciliation," a reference to its a road map
to democracy.

"It's a good reason," said U.N. envoy to Malaysia Razali Ismail, contacted
by telephone Wednesday at his home in Malaysia. "And I hope there will be
results from those efforts," he said.

"We take that the national reconciliation process includes the release of
all political prisoners and that would include Aung San Suu Kyi," he said.

However, many observers consider Myanmar's democracy road map a sham
because it sets on timeframe and doesn't talk about freeing Suu Kyi.

Malaysian Foreign Minister Syed Hamid Albar said Wednesday that engaging
with Myanmar was "the best thing to do." He said the junta understands
that its now under pressure to reform.

"When they move on national reconciliation, there is also democratization
... there must rule of law, there must be free elections. I think they
understood this," Syed Hamid said.

He and his ASEAN colleagues met Wednesday with counterparts from China,
Japan and South Korea, and planned to sign apact with the South Koreans to
cooperate in anti-terrorism efforts.

New Zealand is scheduled to sign a nonaggression pact with ASEAN Thursday
and Australia will sign a document of intent to join the pact, acceding to
the treaty later in the year.

ASEAN comprises Brunei, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar,
Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam.

The ARF comprises ASEAN, Australia, Canada, China, European Union, India,
Japan, Mongolia, New Zealand, North Korea, Pakistan, Papua New Guinea,
Russia, South Korea and the United States.

____________________________________
REGIONAL

July 27, Irrawaddy
Junta appoints new Ambassador to Thailand

Burma has appointed a new ambassador to Thailand, the official New Light
of Myanmar reported on Wednesday. The Burmese Embassy in Bangkok said they
expected the new ambassador, Ye Win, to arrive in August. His predecessor,
Myo Myint, has already returned to Rangoon, the embassy added.

The decision to replace the junta’s ambassador to neighboring Thailand is
not thought to be part of the recent purge of Military
Intelligence-affiliated diplomats as Myo Myint had already served more
than three years in Bangkok.

____________________________________
INTERNATIONAL

June 27, Irrawaddy
UN votes to protect children in armed conflict

The UN Security Council on Tuesday voted for a series of measures to
protect children involved in armed conflict, including those conscripted
by the Karen National Liberation Army (the military wing of the Karen
National Union) and Burma’s military, it said in a statement. The measures
will include the establishment of a monitoring and reporting mechanism to
highlight grave human rights violations against children, while offenders
will be ordered to prepare a timetable to end such abuses. “For the first
time, the UN is establishing a formal, structured and detailed compliance
regime of this kind,” said UN Special Representative for Children and
Armed Conflict Olara Otunnu. “This is a turning point of great
consequence.” According to the UN, two million children have been killed
in armed conflict in the past decade, while six million have been disabled
or injured. Over a quarter of a million children are being used as
soldiers, it says.

Meanwhile, Amnesty International on Tuesday called on Asean to ratify UN
conventions on refugees and migrants. The organization is particularly
concerned about vulnerable peoples in Thailand and Malaysia, it said, many
of which are Burmese. Cambodia is the only Asean member to have adopted
both measures.

_____________________________________
OPINION / OTHER

July 27, Nation
Keep the pressure up on Burma

The pariah state relinquishing next year’s Asean chair is only a start –
it must do much more to reform itself. Burma has made a shrewd and
calculated move to win over Asean by announcing its willingness to skip
playing host to the group’s annual meeting next year.

Lao Foreign Minister Somsavat Lengsavat told reporters yesterday that
Burma would like to postpone being chairman, so that it can focus on the
process of national reconciliation and democratisation. He also said that
once Burma was ready to assume the chairmanship, it could do so at a later
date. The question is when?

This is a good opportunity for Asean to do some soul-searching now that
Burma has finally stepped aside. For the past eight years, Asean has
suffered endless international humiliation, thanks to Burma.

As a full member, Burma has failed to act in the best interest of its
comrade nations.

Burma’s postponement could be problematic, unless Asean considers how best
to deal with the country when it tries to reclaim the chairmanship. So
far, Rangoon has merely asked for a postponement. That could mean that the
chairmanship would go to the Philippines after Malaysia, to be followed by
Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam. However, Burma may choose to reclaim it
anytime it chooses after next year.

And it is entirely possible that during next year, the Rangoon regime will
consolidate its position, both domestically and internationally. Its new
constitution is expected to be completed early in 2006 and be ready for a
national referendum a few months after, in time for the year-end Asean
summit. Asean leaders and their counterparts from China, Japan and South
Korea would have no qualms attending the meeting in a pariah state.

But this is a very tricky situation. If Burma says at the summit it would
be ready to assume the Asean chair in 2007, what should the group’s
response be? Should Asean say no and tell Burma to wait until the other
four countries have taken their turn as chairman? Or should it say yes,
because Burma has already saved Asean’s face by postponing taking the
chair next year? Only God knows.

It is likely that by the end of next year, Burma will have a new
government, albeit one elected under a junta-dictated constitution. It
will thus be payback time for Asean. Of course, the West and most of the
world would condemn the outcome of such an election, which would surely
give a majority of seats to the government and its affiliated parties.
Then Asean will be faced with a dilemma in regard to recognising the new
regime as a legitimate representative of the Burmese people. Indeed, it
would be a fait accompli for the Burmese regime.

If that turns out to be the case, it would be unlikely that Asean’s
dialogue partners would attend any meeting hosted by Burma in the future.
The US Secretary of State, Condoleezza Rice, for one, has already said she
wouldn’t. In fact, she deserves a fair amount of credit for skipping the
Vientiane meeting, which is really a big snub for the group. Therefore, it
is imperative for Asean to deal with the Burmese question in a decisive
manner. Asean can argue that the current rotation will end in 2010 and
that Burma can take its turn after that, after having cleaned up its
horrible act.

Asean and its individual governments must not rest on their laurels and
think that Asean has polished its image with a minimum of fuss. Together,
they must continue to heap pressure on Burma to open up the country and
release Aung San Suu Kyi and the rest of the political prisoners being
held. The grouping’s future relevance depends very much on how it can
influence the situation in Burma for the better.

_____________________________________

July 27, Financial Times
Burmese nights

Robert Zoellick, the new deputy US secretary of state, has the most
difficult assignment of his short tenure in Laos this week.

Zoellick is being dispatched to the meeting of the US and south-east Asian
(Asean) foreign ministers tomorrow in place of his boss Condoleezza Rice.

Rice cited a diary clash for her absence but observers think it is
effectively a boycott aimed at pressing the military junta in Burma into
democratic reforms.

Though yesterday the generals agreed not to take up the chairmanship of
Asean next year in response to pressure there is no sign of release for
Aung San Suu Kyi, democracy leader and Nobel laureate, as demanded by
Rice.

Zoellick will have to communicate her displeasure while keeping lines open
to Burma's more sympathetic neighbours such as Thailand and Laos itself.

Even trickier, he will have to replace Rice at the traditional
end-of-summit karaoke party. Rice might have dazzled the guests by playing
a little Brahms on the piano. Though she plays only rarely in public, Rice
is an accomplished pianist - she started playing at age three, and for a
while considered a career as a concert pianist.

A change of tone from her predecessor, Colin Powell, who wowed last year
with a rendition of "YMCA" while wearing a hard hat.

Zoellick's musical tastes are unknown, but Observer suggests he deliver
his message through song.

How about a version of the Special AKA's iconic "Free Nelson Mandela" with
the words changed to "Aung Sang Suu Kyi"?

_____________________________________

July 25, Irrawaddy
Rangoon the economic spoiler - Philip Bowring

Burma’s narrow-minded generals are a barrier to Asian development

The Burmese junta doubtless believes it is clever in the way it plays its
close relationship with China to gain leverage with India and even with
fellow Asean members. The play is well recognized internationally, not
least in India where realpolitik is adjudged to override commitment to
democratic government. But what is less often realized is the damage that
Burma’s combination of incompetent and thuggish government is doing to
Asian development as a whole.

One can of course view Burma as a natural barrier open only to the sea,
with high hills cutting it off from China to the north and northeast, the
rest of southeast Asia to the southeast and the Indian subcontinent to the
west. That seems to be the way the generals like it, cut off in their
pitiful domain from Asian progress, second only to Kim Jong-Il in their
obscurantist xenophobia. The border trade—drugs and all—with China, the
gas sales to Thailand, the stalled efforts at tourism and garment exports
are simply opportunism to make a few quick bucks to feed the military’s
need for guns and other toys. They do not form part of any coherent policy
of development, such as one finds in diverse neighbors Thailand, China and
Bangladesh.

Burma is not just an economic disaster in its own right, it is a major
barrier to closer cooperation between South and Southeast Asia. The damage
this does becomes clearer as the economies of India, Sri Lanka and
Bangladesh open up to the outside world, more aware of the benefits of
trade and investment flows. South Asia as a whole may finally be about to
make some progress towards a trade grouping and India is talking about a
deal with Asean. But, as ever, Burma remains a physical obstacle to
interaction between South and Southeast Asia as well as casting a shadow
over the whole Asean process.

Bangladesh for one is very keen to “look east” if only to reduce its trade
and transport dependence on India. But what scope is there to do business
with the xenophobic generals?  What do the two have to trade? How can
Bangladesh get closer to thriving Thailand when Burma is astride the land
links?

In principle, Burma, India and Bangladesh have signed an agreement to ship
Burmese gas to India by pipeline through Bangladesh and perhaps linking to
Bangladesh’s own gas fields. But concerns in Dhaka that this would
increase its dependence on India, and continued unwillingness to export
its gas, may mean it will never happen.  The Indians want it not only to
give themselves some influence in Rangoon but, ironically, because US
opposition is holding up their bid to buy gas from Iran—a country which
has at least some democratic and plural aspects. India is also prone to
blame Burma and Bangladesh for its own problems with minority hill tribes.
It believes—or claims—these neighbors have more control of these regions
than is probably the case.  New Delhi finds it easier to deal with Burma’s
generals, who have similar problems, than with democratic Bangladesh. But
trade deals founded on short-term political shifts seldom come to
fruition.

In theory there is to be a new road link, the Asian Highway, linking
Thailand to Bangladesh and India via Rangoon. Work has started on a small
section. But the reality is that commercial demand for such a road will
remain minimal while Burma itself is so divorced from the trade-centered
development of its neighbors and discriminates against the Indian and
Chinese minorities, who in a private-sector led economy would long ago
have developed the sort of trans-border linkages for which much of
Southeast Asia is renowned.

Burma wants to export more gas and in theory would like to sell large
quantities of hydro-power. But it is not at all clear whether it has
sufficient gas or hydro potential if its energy demand expands
dramatically—as it would if dynamic economic forces were unleashed.
Electricity consumption is roughly one twentieth that of Thailand.

In any event, it is not going to acquire the capital, whether from private
companies or the likes of the World Bank and ADB, to grow rapidly while
its regime continues current policies.

It is not clear whether even China is happy with the state of affairs. It
may have been able to use the junta’s isolated and parlous position to
acquire commercial as well as strategic influence. But trade is pitiful
compared with what it conducts with other neighbors such as Thailand, to
which its southwest is now linked through new road and air connections.
China’s hopes that it could provide an outlet to the sea and a new route
for Middle Eastern oil from the Bay of Bengal to western China is likely
to remain just that while the regime is so isolated and capital so scarce.

Vietnam is proving that it is possible for a middle-sized southeast Asian
country to move from a socialist economic system in an authoritarian
political set-up to one which, though lacking the freedoms now taken for
granted in other Asean countries, is delivering modest prosperity. It is
also trying to fit into the regional and World Trade Organisation
commercial norms which are at the root of shared progress in Asia.

Burma is a roadblock. Asean and India should both understand why playing
footsie with the generals is in none of their longer term economic
interests.

Philip Bowring is a former editor of the regional weekly Far Eastern
Economic Review. Based in Hong Kong, he is now a freelance writer for
various journals, including a regular column in the International Herald
Tribune.

_____________________________________
PRESS RELEASE

July 27, Alternative Asean Network on Burma
Deferred chair not an excuse to forget about Burma, say activists

Asean-based activists have called for the regional body to ensure that the
deferral of Burma's chairmanship becomes a catalyst for genuine reforms.

The Alternative Asean Network on Burma (Altsean-Burma) warned Asean
members  that they should not use the deferral as an excuse to forget
about Burma  for another year: "Asean diplomats may have heaved a
collective sigh of
relief that the controversy over the Burma chair is over but they must
realize that without genuine reforms, Burma will continue to be a
problem," emphasized Debbie Stothard, coordinator of the regional human
rights group.

"We hope Asean has learned that consistent pressure produces stronger
results than unconditional engagement. Asean must keep up the pressure to
ensure that the Burmese regime actually delivers genuine national
reconciliation and democratization as promised in the Asean ministers'
joint statement.

"The regime must release all political prisoners including Daw Aung San
Suu Kyi, Hkun Htun Oo and other leaders. It must declare a nationwide
cease-fire and stop hostilities against civilians. It must engage all key
stakeholders in genuine dialogue. Otherwise, Burma will continue to
threaten regional security and fester like a thorn in Asean's side.

"We hope that the pro-democracy and ethnic nationality movements in Burma
will take heart that they are not alone. Despite the face-saving
diplomatic language, it is clear that many Asean countries have openly
made a stand for human rights and democracy in their country," she
emphasized.

Ms Stothard expressed Altsean's congratulations to activists and concerned
legislators who had campaigned against the Asean chair: "In a long
struggle such as this one, little victories like this make all the
difference. We hope the activists - parliamentarians and NGOs - alike will
keep up their great work. We should all be hopeful that this is a
breakthrough not just for Burma but for the region. We want to see Asean
be more pro-active on human rights and democracy for the entire region,"
she added.

Media contacts:

Altsean-Burma Secretariat: tel +661 850 9008
Debbie Stothard: tel+ 661 686 1652