BurmaNet News, July 29, 2005

[Editor]

July 29, 2005 Issue # 2771


INSIDE BURMA
DVB: NLD & students’ reactions on Burma’s rejection of ASEAN chair

DRUGS: Experts, people on ground never see eye to eye

BUSINESS / FINANCE
AP via Irrawaddy: CNOOC weighing whether to raise or drop Unocal bid

ASEAN
Reuters: Asia meeting in rare swipe at Myanmar, says free Suu Kyi
AFP: Asia says engagement of Myanmar more effective than isolation
AFP: Asian security forum ends, vowing to improve terrorism intelligence
sharing

REGIONAL
AFP: Pressure is not off Myanmar, says Thailand's foreign minister
Irrawaddy: Rangoon and Beijing’s quiet diplomacy

INTERNATIONAL
Irrawaddy: Suu Kyi 15th most influential woman, says Forbes

OPINION / OTHER
Bangkok Post: Rangoon lets Asean off the hook

____________________________________
INSIDE BURMA

July 27, Democratic Voice of Bumra
NLD & students’ reactions on Burma’s rejection of ASEAN chair

In a statement issued on 27 July, Burma’s main opposition party, the
National League for Democracy (NLD) urged the country’s ruling junta to
implement its pledge for reconciliation and democratization. “State Peace
and Development Council (SPDC) said that it had decided to relinquish its
turn to be the Chair of ASEAN in 2006 because it would want to focus its
attention on the ongoing national reconciliation and democratization
process,” the statement says. “NLD believes that with the present
situation, the implementation of national reconciliation and
democratization and economic developments are genuinely and truly
essential for the country.” The statement ends by urging the SPDC to hold
political dialogues with the NLD, ethnic national groups (including armed
ethnic groups) and other political parties, in order to implement national
reconciliation, democratization and economic developments. When DVB asked
NLD spokesman Nyan Win if the party would accept the junta’s so-called
National Convention and seven-point road map, he insisted that the NLD
need to accept them if they are for genuine national reconciliation. A
renowned student leader Ko Ko Gyi also said that if the junta really wants
to implement national reconciliation and democratization, all the people
concerned will be willing to participate. “After talking about the
national reconciliation, first, we have to accept and understand deeply
that there are political differences between us,” Ko Ko Gyi asserted.
“Therefore, we are repeatedly urging all sides to recognise the political
differences and try to solve the problems with patience and great
understanding. In fact, we are not opposing the national convention.” He
then added that a national convention must represent the wide-ranging part
of the nation in order to solve all the national problems.

____________________________________
DRUGS

July 29, Shan Herald Agency for News
Experts, people on ground never see eye to eye

The fact is best illustrated by one of my favorite comic strips where the
king, speaking from on top of the tower of his castle, announces, “I see a
land of milk and honey,” and one of the peasants, who are of course on the
ground, turns to his neighbor and groans, “The view must be different up
there.”

In fact, it was this cartoon that flashed through my mind when I recently
saw a newspaper report on the UN’s drug agency saying the region could see
itself opium-free in coming years.

While the experts are jubilant about the success story in Burma, the
peasants themselves are saying more and more of them have been pushed into
poppy cultivation each year. In 2002, the New Light of Myanmar itself
reported destruction of a poppy field in Magwe division. Early this year,
Narinjara was reporting about two farmers being arrested on March 2 for
poppy cultivation in Buthidaung, Arakan State.

Before 1962, the year the military took over the reins of government,
poppy growing was unheard of apart from in Shan State. But now, poppy
planting in four other states (Karenni, Kachin, Chin and Arakan) and three
divisions (Mandalay, Sagaing and Magwe) are being recorded.

The UN and US experts confidently refer to their satellite photographs and
annual survey trips, conducted together with military officials, to back
their yearly estimates.

The peasants, on the other hand, are giving us two different versions: the
official one when they know their survival is in peril if they dare speak
the wrong thing, and the unauthorized one when they know they are safe to
say anything they want.

“What do you expect us to do when we are burdened with the job of feeding
not only our families but also the Army that never stops demanding more
and more, as well as other armed groups, and poppy growing is being
permitted by them?” a farmer roared in desperation when S.H.A.N. put the
question to him. S.H.A.N., of course, wasn't packing a gun at the time.

“The proximity of an army causes prices to go up; and high prices cause
people’s substance to be drained away,” says The Art of War, the classic
military treatise written by Chinese philosopher Sun Tzu more than 2,500
years ago. “When their substance is drained away, they will be afflicted
by heavy exactions. With this loss of substance and exhaustion of
strength, the homes of the people will be stripped bare, and their incomes
dissipated; at the same time government expenses for (the military) will
amount to almost half its total revenue.” For both the poppy farmers and
small dealers, therefore, there is no doubt in their minds that poppy
cultivation is on the rise and not on the decline as trumpeted by both
Rangoon and the international drug busters. But how much is being produced
each season is something beyond their scope, an answer that can be given
only by those who make the most of it i.e. state tax collectors and
principal drug entrepreneurs.

According to the Shan, the annual output during the British days was never
more than 40 tons, although suspicious British officials thought the
actual figures must be twice or even three times as much.

But three decades later, following Independence, Kuomintang incursion and
in-house strife that rocked the nation, Shan figures that have swollen
considerably with time were still less than those of the international
experts. According to The Politics of Heroin by Alfred W. McCoy, the US
figure for 1970 was 500 tons. But six years later, in his proposal to
Washington for assistance, Khun Sa’s aides stated only the sum of 200
tons.

When I put the question to Khun Seng, Khun Sa’s uncle, who was handling
his day to day business affairs about this, he told me that the harvest
for each year at that time was running between 120-180 tons. “We simply
decided to put down 200 tons to be on the safe side,” he said.

For 1988, he put them at 160-230 tons. His figures were remarkable as they
ran contrary to the one given by Khun Sa the previous year, 900 tons,
which was hotly debated and rejected by Thai drug officials. Chaovalit
Yodmanni, then secretary general of the Office of the Narcotics Control
Board (ONCB), said Khun Sa’s figure was “not possible” as “a vast tract of
land would be needed for the cultivation of enough plants to meet Khun
Sa’s target.” (Bangkok Post, Jan. 29, 1987)

When I mentioned this to Khun Seng, he laughed and shook his head. “That’s
Khun Sa’s little game,” he said. It was a game that would soon prove in
favor of the regime he was fighting against.

As years went by, law enforcement officials, for reasons of their own,
appeared to have changed their minds about “Khun Sa’s impossible figures”
and instead began vying with him to predict larger yields each year. Two
years after his figures were discredited, the US government put forward
its estimate for the 1989 season, 2,625 tons.

The numbers in fact so irked Rangoon that it kept up a debate against them
year after year. In 1998, it conducted its own official survey and even
submitted its own figure, 665.28 tons.

However, the year 1998 also marked the end of the generals’ continued war
against UN and US figures. The following UN figures are themselves
self-explanatory:

1996 - 1,760 tons
1997 - 1,676 tons
1998 - 1,303 tons
1999 - 895 tons

The dwindling numbers, as one can see, appeared to be proving the generals
were really doing the job without assistance from outside. Thenceforth,
both sides seemed to have buried their hatchets. Farmers, meanwhile, are
deeper and deeper in trouble. Until 1996, they at least had ground experts
like Khun Seng, the drug entrepreneur who had been a missionary school
graduate and ex-university student, to testify in their defense. But since
then, he is believed to have gone into retirement and his successors, like
Wei Hsuehkang, are to all appearances media-shy.

So I placed an inquiry to one of Khun Sa’s former close aides, “The UN
says the 2004 output was 370 tons. What do you think?”

He told S.H.A.N. he doubted anyone, even Wei, could prove a more competent
reckoner than Khun Seng. “Why don't we do it by extrapolation from his
figures given to you?” he suggested. And this was what he wrote, which
showed the production has been on the increase by the decades: 1976 - 180
tons 1986 - 230 tons 1996 - 280 tons 2006 - 330 tons

“Drug experts,” he concludes, “are like economists. They live in a
different world, unlike businessmen who know what one little mistake in
their data and calculation can do to them.”

I didn't argue with him on this, of course. I just thought he must know
better than me when the topic in question is drugs.

_____________________________________
BUSINESS / FINANCE

June 29, AP via Irrawaddy
CNOOC weighing whether to raise or drop Unocal bid - Joe McDonald

Beijing: CNOOC Ltd. is trying to decide between raising its bid for US oil
company Unocal Corp. to as much as US $20 billion (€15.4 billion) or drop
it entirely due to political obstacles in Washington, newspapers reported
Friday.

State-controlled CNOOC, China’s third-biggest oil company, has drafted
plans to raise its US$ 67-a-share offer to more than US $70, beating a
competing bid by Chevron Corp. by some US $2 billion (€1.5 billion), the
Financial Times said. It said that plan hasn’t been approved by the
Chinese company’s board of directors.

But the FT and Hong Kong’s South China Morning Post newspaper said CNOOC
also is considering scrapping its offer.

“There is literally no point to pursue this any further. The dirty
Washington politics has basically killed the deal,” the Post quoted an
unidentified source familiar with the matter as saying.

A CNOOC spokesman in Hong Kong rejected the front-page report in Hong
Kong’s biggest English-language newspaper as just speculation and wouldn’t
comment on the FT report.

“The offer is still effective, and we’re still monitoring the situation,”
the spokesman said on condition of anonymity.

Unocal, based in El Segundo, California, first agreed to be acquired by
Chevron in April for US $16.6 billion (euro13.7 billion) in cash and
stock.

But two months later, Hong Kong-based CNOOC—70 percent owned by the
Chinese government’s China National Offshore Oil Corp.—offered US $18.5
billion (euro15.3 billion) in cash for Unocal.

The bid sparked fears in the US Congress that the proposed deal presented
risks to America’s economic and national security. A flurry of legislation
intended to derail CNOOC’s offer has been introduced in both houses of
Congress.

Last week, Chevron sweetened its offer for Unocal to US $17 billion
(euro14.1 billion), and Unocal’s board recommended that shareholders,
scheduled to meet on Aug. 19, approve the deal.

On Thursday, CNOOC denied media reports that it was increasing its Unocal
bid, China’s official Xinhua News Agency said.

“So far, CNOOC’s 67 US dollars per share all cash offer has not been
changed and remains in effect,” Xinhua quoted the spokesman as saying.
“There are many guesses recently on whether CNOOC will sweeten its bid for
Unocal. As for those guesses, the CNOOC won’t make any remarks.”

____________________________________
ASEAN

July 29, Reuters
Asia meeting in rare swipe at Myanmar, says free Suu Kyi - Nopporn Wong-Anan

Vientiane: The Asia-Pacific region's main security forum called on
Myanmar's military junta on Friday to speed up its planned transition to
multi-party rule, saying it was concerned about the lack of democratic
reform.

In rare criticism of one of its members, the ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF)
also told Yangon's generals to ease restrictions on the political
opposition, which includes the house arrest of Nobel laureate and
democracy figurehead Aung San Suu Kyi.

The final communique of the ARF meeting in Laos said the group's 25
ministers "expressed their concern at the pace of the democratisation
process" and urged the junta to open talks with Suu Kyi's National League
for Democracy.

They also pressed Yangon to give a visa to special United Nations envoy
Razali Ismail, who has not been allowed into the country since March 2004.

U.S. Deputy Secretary of State Robert Zoellick said the situation in the
former Burma, which has been under military rule since a 1962 coup, was
going backwards rather than forwards, as the generals profess.

"The process in Burma has actually been deteriorating," Zoellick told a
closing news conference, recalling his visit to the region with U.S.
Secretary of State James Baker in the early 1990s.

"I called for the release of Aung San Suu Kyi, and sadly enough I have to
still make the same call, so I don't consider that to be an example of
progress," he said.

Yangon's junta, one of the most isolated and reviled governments in the
world, says it is moving towards democracy along a seven-stage roadmap it
unveiled in August 2003.

However, few take its rulers seriously, especially while Suu Kyi
languishes under house arrest and her party is effectively excluded from
talks to draw up a new constitution.

European Union foreign policy chief Javier Solana said the generals, who
lost 1990 elections by a landslide but chose to ignore the result, must
make good on their promises to change and start delivering concrete
results.

"That means that the process of reconciliation will start, that important
prisoners who are in jail will be liberated, that the people who have been
elected could be allowed to exercise their prerogative," he said.

SECURITY SIDESHOW

After a slew of no-shows by key players and a sideshow over climate
change, the ARF, which is based around the 10-member Association of South
East Asian Nations (ASEAN), pledged greater cooperation to fight terrorism
and boost maritime security.

But, as in previous years at a forum frequently criticised for being an
irrelevant talking shop, the promises were short of substance and detail.

As well as noting the importance of maritime security in a region which
serves as the energy gateway to Japan and China, the communique said
countries would improve counter-terrorism intelligence-sharing.

This week, South Korea, Pakistan and New Zealand signed joint declarations
with ASEAN to fight international terrorism.

The 12-year-old ARF also said it was looking to move up a diplomatic gear
from "confidence building" to "preventive diplomacy", although it did not
give details of the changes.

The ministers also welcomed the resumption of six-country talks in Beijing
to resolve North Korea's nuclear crisis, saying they hoped the
negotiations brought a nuclear-free peninsula.

ASEAN comprises Brunei, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, the
Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam. Its ARF partners include the
United States, Japan, China, Russia, North and South Korea, India,
Australia and New Zealand.

____________________________________

July 29, Agence France Presse
Asia says engagement of Myanmar more effective than isolation

Vientiane: Asian foreign ministers said Friday the West's policy of
isolating Myanmar was not working, and their own backdoor diplomacy was
more effective in persuading the military state to reform.

Both sides agreed however that Myanmar's decision to skip its chance to
chair the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) next year should
not spare the military-ruled nation from pressure to change.

The United States and European Union insisted during meetings of Asia's
main security forum in Laos that they would maintain their sanctions on
Myanmar while Asian nations said the sanctions were a failure.

Deputy US Secretary of State Robert Zoellick, who called Myanmar a
"cancer" that could affect the rest of the region, said his country's
economic sanctions would not be lifted any time soon.

"I urge the (Myanmar) government to take seriously the effort to move
towards a serious national reconciliation process," Zoellick told
reporters at the end of the ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF) security dialogue
in the Lao capital Vientiane.

"I hope that for the security of the ASEAN region that Burma changes its
course."

EU foreign policy chief Javier Solana, also at the meeting, confirmed
Europe's intention to keep its sanctions in place.

The European Union last October reinforced sanctions on Yangon after the
junta failed to meet its demands on human rights, including the release
from house arrest of democracy leader Aung San Suu Kyi.

Aung San Suu Kyi's National League for Democracy won the 1990 election by
a landslide but was never allowed to take government, with the army
seizing power instead.

The EU measures against Myanmar include an arms embargo, a visa blacklist
and an asset freeze.

"For the European Union, the situation vis-a-vis Myanmar has not changed.
Therefore, the position of the EU has not changed," Solana said.

Thai Foreign Minister Kantathi Suphamongkhon said that while ASEAN would
keep the pressure on Myanmar, it would also continue dialogue with the
generals.

The dialogue has been partly credited for Myanmar's dramatic decision
Tuesday to forego its quest for the ASEAN chair to avoid embarrassing the
grouping.

"Since we have kept Myanmar engaged, we have been able to relay to them
our concerns about their national reconciliation process," Kantathi said.

"So that door that we have left open with them has been very, very useful.
We have to be able to give them frank opinion, etcetera, and there has
been healthy interaction.

"We do have quiet diplomacy and we intend to use that door to engage
Myanmar in the direction that we would like to see... The pressure is not
off," Kantathi said.

East Timor's Foreign Minister Jose Ramos-Horta said sanctions were an error.

Ramos-Horta, who recently visited Yangon, said the way to induce change
was through diplomatic engagement and contact with tourism, education,
investment and trade.

"Looking at the dilapidated capital Yangon, the sad look in peoples'
faces, their isolation and poverty, reading the disturbing data about the
drugs and HIV/AIDS pandemic, the proliferation of irregular armed groups
and weapons, the absence of a sizable middle class and a private sector, I
feel it is an error to further punish Myanmar," he said.

In a final statement after their annual talks, the ARF demanded Myanmar
"lift restrictions" and resume dialogue with all parties.

They also said the UN special representative, who has been barred for a
year, must be allowed to return.

____________________________________

July 29, Agence France Presse
Asian security forum ends, vowing to improve terrorism intelligence sharing

Vientiane: Foreign ministers wrapped up Asia's main security forum Friday
with a pledge to step up intelligence sharing on terrorism, which they
called a threat to the "peace, order and security" of the region.

Concluding a day of ministerial-level talks in the Lao capital of
Vientiane, the 25-member ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF) vowed to "better
exchange relevant information and intelligence in a timely, effective,
systematic manner."

"The ministers reaffirmed the need to combat by all means, in accordance
with the Charter of the United Nations and international law, threats to
international peace and security caused by terrorist acts," a final
statement said.

In another signal of commitment to step up information sharing on
terrorism, the ARF unveiled a new website which includes a restricted
section aimed at speeding up the exchange of intelligence.

Most of the forum's members, including Association of Southeast Asian
Nations (ASEAN) members Indonesia and the Philippines, have suffered
casualties in bombing attacks.

But the issue has gained renewed urgency with the deadly bombings this
month in London and the Egyptian resort Sharm el-Sheikh.

This has reinforced the need "to increase the frequency and quality of
intelligence exchanges to make sure that we're much better coordinated,"
Australian Foreign Minister Alexander Downer told reporters here.

Another major topic on the agenda was the North Korean issue, said a
senior Southeast Asian official.

The United States and North Korea resumed their dialogue for the fourth
time this week in Beijing after a 13-month hiatus.

South Korea, China, Russia and Japan are also party to the talks on ways
to persuade North Korea to abandon its nuclear programs. All the
participants are also members of the ARF.

As defense officials from the ARF countries prepared Thursday for the
ministers' talks, South Korean Foreign Minister Ban Ki-Moon met for the
first time in a year with North Korean counterpart Paek Nam-Sun.

Ban said relations between the two sides were better than ever.

The Korean ministers sat side-by-side at the minister-level ARF meeting
Friday, when the forum also welcomed tiny East Timor as its newest member.

They also agreed to accept Bangladesh as the 26th member next year.

The ARF dialogue concluded a week of annual talks between foreign
ministers and officials in the 10-nation ASEAN.

That meeting was dominated by a row over Myanmar's 2006 chairmanship,
after the European Union and United States threatened to boycott the
group's meetings with the military government at the helm.

The ARF's final statement expressed concern at the pace of democratisation
in Myanmar and called for the country's special UN representative, who has
been barred for more than a year, to be allowed to return.

ARF's agenda also called for increased cooperation against piracy on the
region's vital sea lanes and in responding to disasters like the killer
tsunamis that swept the region last December.

The forum went ahead without the foreign ministers its three most powerful
members: US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, Japan's Foreign Minister
Nobutaka Machimura and China's Li Zhaoxing.

Indian officials confirmed Friday that their foreign minister was also
absent.

ARF was established in 1994 to foster dialogue and consultation on
political and security issues.

In addition to ASEAN members Brunei, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia,
Myanmar, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam, the ARF groups
Australia, Canada, China, East Timor, the European Union, India, Japan,
Mongolia, New Zealand, North Korea, Papua New Guinea, Pakistan, Russia,
South Korea the United States.

_____________________________________
REGIONAL

July 29, Agence France Presse
Pressure is not off Myanmar, says Thailand's foreign minister

Vientiane: The pressure is not off military-ruled Myanmar after it agreed
to forego the chairmanship of Southeast Asia's ASEAN group, bending to US
and EU demands, Thailand's foreign minister said here Friday.

The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) had "opened a door"
with Myanmar's ruling generals that it would continue to use to push for
democratic reform, Kantathi Suphamongkhon told reporters in the Lao
capital Vientiane.

Myanmar yielded the chairmanship on Tuesday after the United States and
European Union said they would skip ASEAN meetings if Yangon took the
position in 2006, as it was scheduled to do.

But the country has ignored international demands that it free democracy
leader Aung San Suu Kyi, whose party won 1990 elections by a landslide but
was never allowed to rule. Neither has it undertaken other reforms.

Myanmar joined the 10-nation ASEAN in 1997, and has been considered by
some an embarrassment for the group that is trying to assert itself in the
international community.

"Since we have kept Myanmar engaged we have been able to relay to them our
concerns about their national reconciliation process," Kantathi said as a
week of ASEAN meetings with its various partners drew to a close.

"So that door that we have left open with them has been very, very useful.
We have to be able to give them frank opinion, etcetera and there has been
healthy interaction," he said.

"We do have quiet diplomacy and we intend to use that door to engage
Myanmar in the direction that we would like to see."

"The pressure is not off," Kantathi said.

East Timor's foreign minister, Nobel peace prize laureate Jose
Ramos-Horta, said Friday that "sanctions are not fair and wise in some
cases and Myanmar is one such case."

The European Union last October reinforced sanctions on Myanmar after the
junta failed to meet its demands on human rights, including releasing Aung
San Suu Kyi.

The measures include an arms embargo, a visa blacklist, and an asset freeze.

Recently the US House of Representatives and the Senate overwhelmingly
passed a resolution renewing a one-year ban on all imports from Myanmar.

Speaking to Asia's main security forum of ASEAN and other countries,
Ramos-Horta said the way to induce change was through diplomatic
engagement and contact with tourism, education, investment and trade.

"Looking at the dilapidated capital Yangon, the sad look in peoples'
faces, their isolation and poverty, reading the disturbing data about the
drugs and HIV/AIDS pandemic, the proliferation of irregular armed groups
and weapons, the absence of a sizable middle class and a private sector, I
feel it is an error to further punish Myanmar," said Ramos-Horta. He had
just returned from four days in the country.

"During my visit to Myanmar I was assured by the officials I met about the
commitment to a road map, even if a slow one, towards democracy."

_____________________________________

July 28, Irrawaddy
Rangoon and Beijing’s quiet diplomacy - Aung Lwin Oo

A top Chinese diplomat’s decision to back out of a regional security
meeting in Laos in favor of a visit to Rangoon came only a day after the
military-ruled Burma backed out of an opportunity to assume the chair of
Asean in 2006.

Originally planning to stay until Friday, Foreign Minister Li Zhaoxing cut
short his meeting with the 24-member Asean Regional Forum in Vientiane
Wednesday and headed off to the Burmese capital. When asked the reason for
his change of plans, Li said only that Burma was “the only country in
Asean I’ve never visited.”

Li is now the fourth top diplomat to skip the annual security forum,
following US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, Japanese foreign
minister Nobutaka Machimura and India’s foreign minister Natawar Singh.

Thai Foreign Minister Kantathi Suphamongkhon expressed concern and
surprise at “the last minute take-off of the Chinese foreign minister.”

Li is expected to meet with the Burmese junta’s top brass, including
Snr-Gen Than Shwe and Prime Minister Soe Win.

Officials at the Chinese embassy in Rangoon were unavailable to comment on
the matter, though Aung Kyaw Zaw, a China-based dissident, quoted China’s
Foreign Office in Beijing as saying that “only low-level diplomats remain
for the forum and that’s the reason why he left the meeting.”

Observers, however, believe that Beijing wanted Rangoon to accept the
Asean chair next year and are upset with the regional grouping and the
junta for failing to secure it. “For China, it’s a defeat on the
diplomatic front in the face of western power,” said Nyo Ohn Myint, a
member of the exiled National League for Democracy-Liberated Area’s
foreign affairs committee. “I think China is worried that the junta’s
attitude attracts western interference.”

Li is the second diplomat to visit Burma this week, with Thailand’s deputy
prime minister Surakiart Sathirathai having made a one-day trip on Monday.
On his return, Surakiart said that he discussed strengthening bilateral
cooperation with the regime to help the suppression of narcotics and human
trafficking.

_____________________________________
INTERNATIONAL

July 29, Irrawaddy
Suu Kyi 15th most influential woman, says Forbes

Burma’s democracy icon and Nobel Peace Prize Winner Aung San Suu Kyi has
come 15th in a list of the world’s most influential women conducted by
Forbes magazine, AP reported on Friday. US Secretary of State Condoleezza
topped the list for the second year in a row but there were a number of
high-profile Asian women not far behind. China’s Vice Premier Wu Yi came
second, while scandal-tainted Philippine President Gloria Macapagal Arroyo
was listed in fourth place. However, Forbes said Arroyo "could soon be
off" the list if she fails to survive impeachment proceedings brought
against her amid allegations of cheating in last year's presidential
election. Other notable female Asians included Singapore's Ho Ching, who
helms the city-state's investment arm, Temasek Holdings, and is married to
Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong, in 20th position. The magazine formulated
the list based on "visibility, measured by press citations, and economic
impact.”

_____________________________________
OPINION / OTHER

July 29, Bangkok Post
Rangoon lets Asean off the hook - Larry Jagan

The issue of Burma's scheduled chairmanship of the Association of
Southeast Asian Nations in 2006 has preoccupied the member governments, in
the face of international pressure to force Rangoon to stand down

Rangoon stunned Asia and the international community earlier this week
when it declined the regional bloc's chairmanship in 2006 at the foreign
ministers' summit in the Lao capital Vientiane.

In a well-orchestrated campaign designed to keep everyone guessing until
the last moment, Rangoon managed to get everything it wanted to be left
alone to carry out political reform inside the country in its own time.

But in the past week, two senior Asian politicians, Timor Leste's (East
Timor) Foreign Minister Jose Ramos Horta and Thailand's Deputy Prime
Minister Dr Surakiart Sathirathai have been on peace missions to Burma,
while Chinese Foreign Minister Li Zhaoxing made a one-day visit to Rangoon
yesterday when he met the junta's top leaders and discussed the regime's
planned political and economic reform.

For months, the issue of Burma's scheduled chairmanship of the Association
of Southeast Asian Nations in 2006 has preoccupied the member governments
in the face of international pressure, especially from the European Union
and the United States, to force Rangoon to stand down because of the lack
of political progress and the continued detention of the opposition
leader, Aung San Suu Kyi. They threatened to boycott future Asean meetings
if Rangoon was allowed to take its turn at the helm of the regional
organisation.

In the days before the Asean foreign ministers were due to meet, Mr
Horta's initiative was probably the most dramatic attempt to break the
political impasse.

Although ostensibly in Burma to discuss opening an embassy in Rangoon and
the junta's attitude to East Timor's desire to join Asean, the Nobel Peace
Prize winner took the opportunity to try to see his fellow Nobel laureate
Aung San Suu Kyi.

The pro-democracy leader is currently under house arrest. She is
effectively in solitary confinement. For more than a year now, the regime
has refused to allow her any visitors, apart from her doctor who sees her
for a monthly medical check.

Mr Horta, of course, was also told the time was not right to see her,
according to Asian diplomats. But they did agree to allow him to send her
a letter.

In the letter, Mr Horta urged Aung San Suu Kyi to publicly condemn
international sanctions as they were only hurting the average Burmese
citizen. He also advised her to stand down as secretary-general of the
National League for Democracy (NLD) and offer her services to the generals
as a national figure rather than an opposition leader.

Mr Horta believes Aung San Suu Kyi's role in Burma's political future
could be like that of the South African leader and Nobel laureate, Nelson
Mandela, after he was released from prison, according to senior Asian
diplomats in Vientiane.

He also wrote to the junta's top general, Than Shwe, urging him to release
Aung San Suu Kyi as soon as possible, and to offer her a role in the
political process as a national leader.

This approach is not new. Many top pro-democracy activists have advised
Aung San Suu Kyi to adopt the ``Nelson Mandela role'' in the past.

Months after the pro-democracy leader was released from house arrest the
last time in May 2002, the leaders of the Kachin ceasefire group, the KIO,
also urged her to resign from the NLD and play a role as a national leader
representing all the Burmese, including the national minorities, according
to a senior ethnic community leader.

Mr Horta has resurrected this idea because he feels a fresh approach is
needed to break the current political deadlock in Burma, according to
sources close to East Timor's foreign minister.

They say he has long wanted to be a mediator or envoy between the military
regime and Aung San Suu Kyi.

However, Senior General Than Shwe, the head of the junta, is unlikely to
heed Mr Horta's appeals as the regime is committed to carrying out its own
seven-point road map announced in August 2003 by the prime minister, Khin
Nyunt, who has since been sentenced to 44 years' imprisonment for bribery
and corruption.

The Chinese foreign minister, is more likely to have some influence on the
junta's thinking.

Beijing has been Rangoon's staunchest ally since the military seized power
17 years ago.

But China does see the need for Burma to introduce significant political
and economic reform.

In stark contrast to the Western strategy of international pressure and
sanctions, Beijing's approach is support and encouragement.

Burma recently released more than 200 political prisoners, the largest
ever single release of pro-democracy activists, a week after Burmese Prime
Minister Gen Soe Win met his Chinese counterpart Wen Jiabao in Kunming and
discussed Burma's political future.

The Chinese premier pledged Beijing's support for Rangoon taking its place
as the chairman of Asean next year, according to Chinese government
officials.

Now that they have skipped their turn, the Burmese government will
concentrate on its national reconciliation process and democratisation,
Burma's Foreign Minister Nyan Win told his Asean counterparts at the
summit in Laos.

Beijing is now offering to support the junta's plans for the future and
seems to believe it is privy to what is in the pipeline.

``The National Convention will have drawn up a new constitution by the end
of the year and it will be put to a referendum in early 2006,'' said a
senior Chinese diplomat.

New elections are likely to be held after Thingyan _ the Buddhist New Year
_ and could be as early as next May, according to a senior ethnic
community leader from northern Burma.

Beijing believes Gen Than Shwe will stand down next year and become the
civilian president. ``He wants to be president for life,'' a senior
military source close to him said.

The No. 3 in the regime, Gen Thura Shwe Mann, is scheduled to take over as
head of the army and replace Than Shwe as head of the junta.

When that time comes, he would grant a mass amnesty to all political
prisoners, including Aung San Suu Kyi, Khin Nyunt, and the former military
intelligence officers who were recently sentenced to hundreds of years in
prison for corruption and economic crimes, according to Asian diplomats.

``China was keen to have Burma as the Asean chairman as they believed this
would make it easier for them to increase their presence and influence in
the region,'' said Win Min, an independent Burmese analyst based in Chiang
Mai.

For Beijing, Rangoon remains a significant ally in Southeast Asia and the
visit of the Chinese foreign minister is intended to strengthen their
bilateral ties.

The Chinese are already expanding and refurbishing Rangoon's airport,
doubling its size, ready for when Burma does become the chairman of Asean.
Architectural designs for a new massive convention centre in Rangoon, also
to be built by the Chinese, have now been approved. Many diplomats believe
this is also part of the preparations for Burma's future chairmanship of
Asean. Burma may have skipped its turn now, but Rangoon is likely to take
the chairmanship of Asean in 2007, according to senior Asean officials
attending the Vientiane meeting.

The announcement on Tuesday was suitably vague, simply stating that Burma
would take its turn at the appropriate time, but this is a thinly
disguised diplomatic ploy to deflect criticism and pressure on the
organisation for as long as possible.

Above everything else, the Asean governments fear a repeat of what
happened in the Lao capital. No one knew till the last minute what Rangoon
had decided. Burma's ruling State Peace and Development Council (SPDC)
made its final decision at a meeting on Monday.

After the foreign minister arrived in Vientiane, he refused to disclose
the Burmese position at the Asean ministers' informal dinner that evening.

Only at the ministers' retreat the following morning did he relay Gen Than
Shwe's decision _ just hours before Asean had to formally announce who
would be the chair in 2006.

But for Asean, the continued detention of Aung San Suu Kyi remains a major
embarrassment.

Two years ago, the foreign ministers' meeting in the Cambodian capital
Phnom Penh demanded her immediate release, a little more than a month
after the pro-democracy leader had been detained following a brutal attack
on her car by pro-government thugs as she was travelling in the north of
the country.

The UN envoy Razali Ismail politely reminded the Asean ministers of this
when he met several of them in Vientiane earlier this week.

``The Indonesian, Singaporean and Thai foreign ministers were apparently
embarrassed, but did not really respond,'' said a diplomat who knows the
envoy well.

``By postponing their turn as the chairman of Asean in 2006, the junta has
allowed Asean off the hook,'' said a Western diplomat in Bangkok who deals
with Burma.

The issue now is to find ways where Europe and Asia can work together to
secure meaningful change in Burma, according to a European diplomat who
covers Burma. Burma has little intention of allowing Mr Razali back into
Burma any time soon. The Burmese foreign minister snubbed the envoy's
efforts to see him, after Mr Razali flew to Laos on Sunday to specifically
meet the Burmese minister.

Clearly, Rangoon believes it now has the support of Asean and can ignore
the United Nations. The UN's next move appears to be to try to arrange a
visit to Rangoon by UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan.

Senior Gen Than Shwe invited Mr Annan when they met in Jakarta earlier
this year. But UN officials need certain guarantees before Mr Annan
contemplates any trip to Rangoon. He would need to be sure that he would
see both Gen Than Shwe and Aung San Suu Kyi.

Burma's ethnic leaders strongly support the proposed visit. Even the NLD
supports it _ with two provisos: that the UN secretary-general is allowed
to meet Aung San Suu Kyi and the visit takes place before the National
Convention reconvenes in November, according to senior opposition sources.

So even for the UN, the window of opportunity is limited. And the fear is
that buoyed by their successful handling of Asean, Burma's top generals
will simply continue to rebuff international efforts to encourage a
national reconciliation process that also includes the opposition leader
Aung San Suu Kyi and the NLD.