BurmaNet News, August 12, 2005

[Editor]

August 12, 2005 Issue # 2781


INSIDE BURMA
Mizzima: Junta's new censorship policy: a give and take policy?
Mizzima: Burma shakeup: sign of disunity among the generals
SHAN: Is nuke plant being moved from the plains to the hills?
Narinjara: Armed clash occurs between Arakan Liberation Army and SPDC
DVB: NLD supporters sent to Rangoon Insein Jail

ASEAN
Nation: Asean Social Charter would set a decent social safety net

OPINION / OTHER
Mizzima: What is there behind Burma's political and military reshuffle?
Mizzima: Be wary and wise

____________________________________
INSIDE BURMA

August 11, Mizzima News
Junta's new censorship policy: a give and take policy? - Han Pai

"There has to be a compromise between the literary fraternity in Burma and
the Press Censor Board for a softer (not restricted as before) policy on
censorship" said a Burmese government official.

He was quoted by Myanmar Times Journal Vol.12 - No.222.

''Our censorship policy cannot be too restrictive to and has to have more
Cupertino and co-ordination between the Censor Board and the Burmese
literary world aimed at national interests.

Therefore, we will compromise and negotiate with the literary world in the
future", Major Tint Swe, Director of "Press Scrutiny and Registration
Division of Printing and Publishing Enterprise" of the Burmese government
said.

The Press Censor Board will cut down restrictions thought to be too
restrictive while there are hopes that more and more people of the
literary fraternity will write in the interests of the nation, he added.

The hesitation on the part of the Burmese media inside the country to
cover news and to mention the government's position on the bomb blasts on
May 7 this year in Rangoon has made the government rethink its censorship
policy, Major Tint Swe added.

In June, Minister for Information Brig-Gen Kyaw Hsan had criticised the
Burmese media and literary people inside the country on their role in the
media coverage of the Rangoon bomb blasts.

"How soft will they be to the media? The whole state mechanism is wrong.
Will they (the authorities) allow us to write about these (government
mistakes and wrong mechanism)," lamented the duty editor Dr. Lwan Swe of
Myhar Nat Maung magazine, who recently fled to the Thai-Burma border.

"Whatever they say about changes is cosmetic. Only minor things which do
not endanger their establishment will be allowed. They will never allow
those which threaten their rule ", he added.

The junta's new censor policy is said to permit coverage of natural
disasters and portraying the life of poor people on condition that they
will not effect "national dignity." And it will also allow critical
writings about the government's functioning depending on the "reason and
aims" of the writer.

"If we write about poverty, we will have to write why the people are poor.
Then questions will naturally be raised about them (the rulers). Will they
allow these writings? They will never allow it!" Dr. Lwan Swe said.

"Without the change in the government in Burma, there can be no softening
of censorship in the country", he added.

Burma's Press Scrutiny and Registration Board was renamed in April this
year and called "Press Scrutiny and Registration Division." It was put
under the Ministry of Information.

The decision to practice "a softer policy on the Burmese media" by the
Burmese government was made at the first co-ordination meeting of The
Central Supervisory Committee for Press Scrutiny and Registration held on
July 8 in Rangoon, attended by its Chairman and Minister for Information
Brig-Gen Kyaw Hsan.

____________________________________

August 11, Mizzima News
Burma shakeup: sign of disunity among the generals - Mungpi

Chiang Mai: Burmese military junta on Thursday announced the re-shuffle of
its cabinet ministers for the fourth time within a year.

The junta terminated its Education Minister U Than Aung and "permitted to
retire' two ministers of Prime Minister Office, U Than Shwe and Brig-Gen
Pyi Sone, in an order signed by the junta's secretary (1), Lt-Gen Thein
Sein on Wednesday.

The order also includes the promotion of Chan Nyein, the deputy Minister
for Science and Technology, to the post of Education Minister and Col
Thurein Zaw as deputy Minister for National Planning and Economic
Development.

The authorities gave no reasons for the cabinet shakeup.

However, analysts see the move as the junta's usual practice and as signs
of instability within the regime.

"It [the re-shuffle] is a move by the Generals to fill the government with
people who are closer to them," said Win Min, a researcher on Burma. "In
any case it is a clear sign of instability among the Generals."

Asked whether the cabinet shakeup has any political implications, Win Min
said, "The move has no political attachments and it is the generals'
random action."

"This move does not give any positive hopes for [political] changes 
inside Burma," told Win Min, a research scholar working with the US-based
Burma Fund organization to this correspondent through telephone.

Following the dismissal of Burma's foreign minister and his deputy in
September 2004, Burma's Prime Minister and Intelligence Chief Gen. Khin
Nyunt was purged with charges of corruption and subordination in
October2004.

The junta subsequently followed up the cabinet reshuffle by dismissing the
Home Affairs Minister Col. Tin Hlaing and Labor Minister Tin Win in the
following month.

____________________________________

August 12, Shan Herald Agency for News
Is nuke plant being moved from the plains to the hills?

As Rangoon gears up to transfer the state power center to Pyinmana in
central Burma, reports have reached the border of activity on the western
slopes of the Shan hills that sources suspect is the building of a secure
site for Burma's nuclear program.

The new location near Maymyo, officially known as Pyin Oo Lwin, 42 miles
east of Mandalay, lies on flat land surrounded on all sides by steep hills
"not unlike the crater in You only live twice (a James Bond movie) where
the bad guy prepares his scheme to conquer the world."
In addition, the area is so shrouded by year-around mist that the
project's planners believe it would be virtually invisible from the air.

The villages and their fields have already been confiscated without
compensation since 2003. Roads, some say tunnels as well, are being built.
 It has been declared off-limits to local people with long-term
imprisonment as punishment for trespassers.

An airfield has been under construction since last year at Aneesakhan, on
the way to Mandalay. Half of the homes in town and all homes in
surrounding Singaunggyi, Kangyigon and Nyannyintha villages were
demolished for the transfer of the nuclear plant from Magwe to Maymyo. 
However, they have so far been unable to give further details.

Maymyo, once part of Shan State's Hsipaw principality, was occupied by the
British as the seat of government from which they administered upper
Burma. Eventually, it became part of the district of Mandalay.

The city has become so militarized during the last decade that sources
estimate that its population is half civilian and half military. The
country's West Point, the Defense Services Academy, is located here.

For years, Burma has been suspected of developing nuclear power with
assistance from North Korea and Russia, where thousands are receiving
nuclear training.

However, Rangoon has maintained it was only acquiring nuclear technology
for medical research purposes and denied its nuclear program was a front
for bomb-making.

Still, junta critics have pointed out that atomic energy, atomic fuel and
atomic radiation are placed on its defense List. "It should instead be
placed on the energy and electric power list," a ceasefire group
participant suggested at the military-organized National Convention on
June 9, 2004, to draft the country's constitution.

_____________________________________

August 12, Narinjara News
Armed clash occurs between Arakan Liberation Army and SPDC

A violent clash between the Arakan Liberation Army (ALA) and Burmese
military forces occurred on Aug. 6 near the Burma, Bangladesh and India
border triangle.

At about 9 a.m. Aug. 6, a troop of Burmese Army soldiers led by Captain
Aung Kyaw Than of Light Infantry Battalion 20 met in battle with ALA
members. The engagement lasted for about half an hour.

Burmese Army sources claim the ALA retreated deeper into the border area
with three of its members wounded.

The Arakan Liberation Party (ALP), the political organization of the ALA,
said they couldn't yet confirm the news of an engagement or the result.

On July 18, a battle between the ALA and the Burmese Army resulted in a
Burmese officer getting killed.

Afterwards, the Arakanese headman of Satin Wa Village, his son and another
five villagers were detained and tortured in public in the middle of the
village, according to local sources. They were accused of being informers
for the ALA.

After that incident, the Burmese Army ordered local hill cultivators
living in border areas to relocate. For that reason a number of people
have left the fields they were cultivating and returned to their
respective villages, said a villager from the area.

_____________________________________

August 12, Democratic Voice of Burma
NLD supporters sent to Rangoon Insein Jail

A member of National League for Democracy (NLD) from Pegu, Pegu Division
in southern Burma Hla Myint Than and a party supporter Win Myint, who have
been detained since the beginning of July, were transferred from Rangoon
Mayanggone police station to the notorious Insein Jail.

Two other supporters, Khin Zaw and Wai Lin, also from Pegu were also said
to be sent to the prison. According to sources close to their relatives,
they were transferred to the prison after being interrogated at Mayanggone
police station within last week and they are still not allowed to see
their families.

It is not known why the authorities arrested Wai Lin and Khin Zaw but the
other two were arrested because they were allegedly keeping ‘illegal’
satellite phones with them.

Moreover, Pegu Division Shwekyin Township NLD chairman Bogyi and
organising committee member Pe Tin were each given a seven year prison
term on 27 May for distributing extracts of Gen Aung’s speeches and they
are being detained in Pegu Prison.

_____________________________________
ASEAN

August 11, The Nation
Asean Social Charter would set a decent social safety net - Pravit
Rojanaphruk

Nearly four decades after Asean was founded, labour activists say it’s
time to push for an Asean Social Charter that would guarantee a certain
level of labour rights across the region.

Considering how free trade within the region has been pushed by Asean
political and business leaders, this is long overdue. Thai labour
activists and union leaders met last month to discuss the possibility of
such a charter, which would signal a shift towards greater people’s
participation in the 10-country regional block.

But any unrealistic optimism should be heavily doused by the fact that the
disparity in labour standards within the region is vast.

Consider Burma, with its infamous forced labour inflicted by the Rangoon
junta on its own populace. The majority of the estimated two million
migrant labourers in Thailand are from Burma; many are discriminated
against and paid much lower than the minimum wage. Some workers are even
cheated out of being paid anything at all.

In Tak province’s Mae Sot, situated right on the northern border with
Burma, abuse ranges from extrajudicial killings to rape, human
trafficking, arrests and deportation, says the Thai Labour Campaign, a
Bangkok-based non-governmental group. The organisation claims that workers
on the Thai side of the border are paid only Bt55 per day, roughly
one-third of the national minimum wage.

Workers’ freedom of movement is restricted by their employers and
worksites tend to resemble concentration camps rather than factories.
Child labour has also been reported, and one factory with 2,000 workers
has only 20 toilets on its premises.

People who think that Singapore is any better should bear in mind that any
unskilled female migrant worker who becomes pregnant is usually deported
by the island-state’s government.

Combined with this is the pressure on poorer Asean nation-states to
compete with each other by paying the lowest possible wages to workers, in
order to attract foreign investors, on top of subcontract work at
near-subhuman pay.

“[Asean] is a heaven for investors but a hell for workers,” said Sakdina
Chatrakul na Ayutthaya, a labour expert at the Bangkok office of Friedrich
Ebert Stiftung, a German pro-labour foundation.

Sakdina admitted at the meeting last month, however, that most workers in
Thailand and throughout the region still have no idea what the Asean
Social Charter is all about – so it’s time to kick off a campaign to raise
awareness. He said that the European Social Charter could and should be
referred to as an example.

Many at the meeting hoped that a minimum yet decent labour standard and
social safety net would eventually be endorsed by Asean.

Labour leader Wilaiwan sae Tia said that Asean cannot continue pushing for
a regional free-trade zone without taking labour rights into
consideration.

She’s right, although setting a common minimum standard will not be an
easy task. Intra-regional competition, especially between poorer nations,
for the cheapest wages with which to attract foreign investors will
continue, but a strategy to boost the region’s labour rights and
protection would be a move in the right direction.

There are some caveats that ought to be considered, however. Setting
standards too high may lead to an unattainable goal. Cross-border
solidarity is also needed, in order to ensure it is a success. This won’t
be easy. Labour movements are no exception to the ultra-nationalist
ideology spread by each member country. If the idea of a social charter
cannot be explained as a goal for the common good, a win-win strategy for
all member societies, then any hope of mustering any serious support for
the campaign will be dashed.

Nevertheless, it’s definitely worth a try. Any attempt would be long overdue.

_____________________________________
OPINION / OTHER

August 12, Mizzima News
What is there behind Burma's political and military reshuffle? - Myint Thein

Education Minister Than Aung is a very close confidant of General Than
Shwe. He is General han Shwe's "bag-man" who secretly delivers money to
Than Shwe's first wife who resides in Mandalay. Than Aung's dismissal from
the cabinet is an indication that political change is being precipitated
by Than Shwe's loss of face when ASEAN rejected his scheduled
Chairmanship.

Norway-based Democratic Voice of Burma (DVB) reports that the
Director-General of the SPDC Chairman's office was removed and placed
under house arrest. The Director-General of the Prime Minister's office
was also removed. Both these changes are more significant than the
resignation of the two aging ministers assigned to the Prime Minister's
Office.

About four years ago, ASIAWEEK published a feature article about Regional
Army Commanders in Burma, and cited Southeastern Regional Commander
Major-General Myint Aung and Mandalay Regional Commander Major-General Ye
Myint as charismatic with leadership ability. ASIAWEEK speculated that M-G
Myint Aung could be a replacement for then very powerful S-1 Khin Nyunt.
ASIAWEEK also said that M-G Ye Myint could be a future Army Chief-of
Staff.

Khin Nyunt abruptly arrested M-G Myint Aung when General Maung Aye was on
an overseas trip. Myint Aung was a favorite of General Maung Aye and once
served as his battalion commander. It was Myint Aung's DSA classmates,
with the support of General Maung Aye, that arrested Khin Nyunt and
dismantled the hated Military Intelligence unit while General Than Shwe
was vacationing in India.

General Than Shwe's three main allies in the Burma Army are General Thura
Shwe Mann, Lt. General Ye Myint and Rangoon Commander Major-General Myint
Swe. The appointment of Lt. General Ye Myint as Head of Armed Forces
Training means that he no longer control any troops.

The Burma Army is now organized into four Corps, each of which is in
charge of three regional commanders. The Corps Commanders are called
Special Operations Commanders.

The appointment of Lt. General Kyaw Win as a Corps Commander (Special
Operations Commander) is an indication that General Maung Aye now controls
the Burma Army. When General Maung Aye was the Eastern Regional Commander
in the Shan States, Lt. General Kyaw Win was his Divisional Commander
stationed in Kengtung.

A political settlement may now be possible in Burma since Daw Aung San Suu
Kyi and General Maung Aye is reported to have a good relationship.

_____________________________________

August 12, Mizzima News
Be wary and wise - Kanbawza Win

It would be foolish if one remains jubilant at the Junta's giving up ASEAN
chairmanship and witnessing the uncomfortable Li Zhaoxing, China's Foreign
Minister, chastising the Junta's bulldog, General Than Shwe. Geopolitics
dictates that Burma is just a small cactus among the mammoth viz the
dragon and the elephant, with the flying eagle under the scorching sun.
All of them are out to outshine each other driven by self-interests,
priorities and concerns. But the most important aspect is that the Junta
is still in the driving seat and is heading at full speed with its power
in perpetuity.

Stocks have to be taken and the Burmese opposition in Diaspora should
meticulously plan out what the next objective should be in their endeavor
to reach their cherished goal. Now that several battles have been won with
the junta having had to relinquish the ASEAN chairmanship, President Bush
signing the law and very lately the WFP James Morris report highlighting
the real situation of the country to the international community, we
should get prepared for the coup de grace. But still our war for
liberations faces many hazards and is still far from being over and we
have to work more relentlessly.

Since the fateful announcement of relinquishing chairmanship, Burma has
become a fair lady, where every eligible bachelor tries to woo her. Of
course the first person happens to be our neighbour, the pigtail Pauk Paw,
who is very worried that the neighbouring damsel might elope with another
person and came rushing over the fence shouting "Wor I Nee" bringing 400
trucks.

The second one is a conglomerate of our family members, better known as
ASEAN, who having seen vividly the Pauk Paw's influence over Burma came
rushing, all eager to help the country on her road to democracy. How come
that after one-and-half decades of indifference towards state of Burma it
is now all eager to help? If the ASEAN had chosen to coax the Junta to
have some semblance of democracy as releasing Daw Aung San Suu Kyi or good
governance or a genuine National Convention earlier, then Burma would have
taken up this prestigious chairmanship without anybody objecting and to
it. The centre of their hypocrisy is ASEAN self interest. The economic
exploitation of the Burmese under the smokescreen of Constructive
Engagement has carried them too far and in their endeavour to counter
China with the help of Uncle Sam has now backfired. "Oh darling you came
late".

Soon Japan and other countries may follow the suit and so it is no wonder
that Thailand's Deputy Prime minister Surakiart Sathirathai has made a
one-day visit to Rangoon, on the 25th ultimo, which will soon be followed
up by Thai Foreign Minister Kantathi Suphamongkhonon by the end of this
month. Both of them are endeavoring to put some sense and logic on the
conservative, obstinate Burmese supreme. Than Shwe, whose obsession to
become the Burmese emperor has driven him a little crazy and is dragging
not only his country and people down the drain but also pulling ASEAN on
its descent.

The third person is of course the smelly, greasy Ka lar who came in from
back door of the kitchen to make his presence felt to the Burmese lassie
with infrastructure, economic incentives such as the gas pipe line and
suppressing the Burmese ethnic and democratic forces and so on. Shaking
his head he seems to say, "Thum Ko Hum Pyar Hae". Obviously the Junta will
play off one with another as long as that suitor can guarantee the Junta
in power. How do we react to this and follow up our goals is food for
thought? The Junta has many choices and will carefully choose the one that
will guarantee the best. What card do we play is to be carefully
considered.

International Front

To understand some of the nature of what is going in around us and beyond,
we must understand the nature of the hegemonic game in the world. We
should remember that Burma such a small country and merely a pawn in the
game of international political chess, which can be sacrificed easily to
achieve a greater goal by one of the two components particularly the
dragon and the flying eagle. Obviously, the flying eagle's nourishing meal
is a snake, as according to the Burmese myth, a Galon bird likes the taste
of the dragon flesh, which indicates that finally the eagle will prevail.

The Sino American relations became very crucial for ASEAN's survival and
longevity and Burma is the black sheep that is spoiling all these
relations. The Deputy Secretary of Sate Robert B. Zoellick's China visits
after the ARF meeting on 2nd August indicates that the two countries are
trying to normalize their bilateral relations. Earlier in July, Condolezza
Rice had visited Beijing. The fact that China is supporting the Burmese
Junta and the US is enforcing punitive actions reveal that the Burmese
regime is one of the major thorns, in the bilateral relations of the two
mammoths. Burma hosts China's only military base on the Indian Ocean that
can monitor the American base in Diego Garcia, and also plays a crucial
part in the growing rivalry between India and China. It has big reserves
of natural gas, which it already sells to Thailand and plans to pipe it to
Kunming.

Another meeting between US and China is schedule before Christmas in
Washington.
Hitherto, unheard of any regular meetings between the two countries
disclose that he relations of the two are not going well and both sides
are desirous to level it.  We should also note that since Dr. Rice took
over Collin Powell's place, as Secretary of State, the bilateral relations
of the two giants has run into road blocks. The publication of the former
Chinese Foreign Minister Chang Xi Ching's article in the People's Daily
accusing America of trying to become the sole mega power in perpetuity,
clearly indicates that a sort of a small under the table Cold War is going
on between the two. It seems that even though China regards America as a
co-worker is not satisfied over its hegemony while the US considers China
as a competitor that eventually one day would challenge him. It is already
outlined in Samuel Hungtinton's "Clash of Civilizations". But it is a fact
that China is growing stronger day by day and Uncle Sam is getting
nervous, and is bent on preventing it by any means and the classic example
is the episode of the purchase of the Unocal oil company by CNOOC.

China being a dictatorial communist regime is not shy of encouraging the
dictators of the world, whether they are communist or otherwise, and this
was demonstrated when the Chinese Foreign Minister Li Zhaoxing was
chastising Than Shwe for Burma's diplomatic set back-- in not taking the
rightful chair-- Beijing was rolling out red carpet to Robert Mugabe of
Zimbabwe, another equally pugnacious dictator of Africa. So in this
impending new Cold War, Burma became crucial, when the West has already
made known that democracy and human rights as its hall mark. Beijing will
do anything to counter the Western move regarding democracy as it
encourages not only Mugabe and Than Shwe but also Uzbekistan dictator
Islam Karimov whose government opens fire on peaceful demonstrators. It is
in this scenario that we will have to make a move. But how, is a strictly
confidential policy paper, which cannot be written here.

We should note that the resolution of the chairmanship problem, has
unwittingly removed a campaigning target from Burma's more vociferous
critics and we in Diaspora are now back to square one. Hence the unwritten
contest of "statesmanship" is between the Junta and the Diaspora with the
backing of the NLD. The Junta's decision reveals a very shrewd awareness
of where their real interests lie and when, as a regime which is almost
totally impervious to external pressures, can give away gracefully when
the benefits of so doing far outweigh the disadvantages.  Are we prepared
for that kind of compromise taking into consideration the internal and
international affairs? Careful strategies have to be laid out.

Neighbouring Front

India's emergence as an important player on the Asian theatre was a fact
and recognized by the nearly hundred leaders from Asia and Africa during
the 50th anniversary of the Bandung summit in Jakarta when in a rare
gesture, China, Japan and the host country Indonesia stepped aside to let
Prime Minister Manmohan Singh lead Asia, at the anniversary celebrations.
Again Manmohan Singh is about to add more global feathers in India's cap
with its impending admission to the East Asian Summit (EAS), and his
historic visit to Washington at the invitation of President Bush. But
India's recognition as a global power by the US came after Condoleeza Rice
took over as the Secretary of State from Colin Powell, who was known for
his pro-Pakistan tilt. Administration officials disclosed that Rice during
her recent Indian visit, had presented a policy outline to Prime Minister
Manmohan Singh on helping India become a major world power. Condoleeza
Rice when she came to India. She held out similar assurances to Natwar
Singh and at a joint press
conference on April 16 saying that US wants to be supportive of 'positive
trends in India's global role.'

China seems to be worried that the United States with the help of Japan,
is wooing India which is an emerging economic power next only to China to
stem Beijing's influence ' both its military and economic clout. China is,
therefore, trying to counter-balance the moves of these two countries
through such overtures to India as the `guiding principles' to resolve the
border dispute, which were signed during Wen Jiabao's visit to India, and
the formal recognition of Sikkim as part of India.

The US concern is China's military modernization and its need to create
strong alliances in the region that will contain the growing aspirations
of China. The foreign policy honks, at the State Department have openly
cautioned that the 'Red sun rising has to be managed by being active in
making certain that our alliances in the region are as strong as
possible.' The message of Dr. Rice to New Delhi was to convey that America
was forging alliances to contain the emerging China. Will the Indian
elephant be ready for an alliance with the American flying eagle against
the rising dragon is still to be seen.

If India has remains true to its conviction as the biggest democracy in
the world and continues encouraging the democratic forces, there is some
hope for the Burmese resistance. At first we thought that because the BJP
was in power, there was a slight change in the Burma policy, but as of now
the Congress Party in power, so far no improvement has been detected. It
is hope that the Indian leaders will soon remember that the founding
fathers of both India (Pandit Nehru) and Burma (Bogyoke Aung San) has
fought shoulder to shoulder in their country's independence.

Whether India, which has a long record of historical relations with the
Burmese struggle, is ready to help the Burmese cause or parley with the
Junta in their effort to contain China will be known soon. A proper
approach must be made on a give and take basis instead of solely on moral
grounds have to be figure it out. If there is any possibility of the
American and India joining together then what the average man in Burma
dreams can come true. Their thinking is if America has invaded Iraq why
hasn't it invaded Burma are the only questions, which the people of Burma
are asking. A Buddhist monk, a taxi driver, a student, all shyly and
secretly ask this crucial question of whether America might not be
prevailed upon to topple their dictatorial regime next. The country is
stuck in such a rut that the prospect of a foreign invasion is a fond
hope, not a fear. Can we reach that level with what we are doing now?

Home Front

The Junta have no intentions of handing over power or preparing the way
for a civilian overnment, Burma's military rulers are digging in and
doggedly eliminating all potential position, including within the army as
the fate of Prime Minister Khin Nyunt particularize. It has not only
centralized its power among the top hand picked Generals but also moving
the capital to
Pyinmana demonstrates that they are prepared for the worst. However the
most disturbing aspect is the vitriolic attacks on Daw Aung San Suu Kyi,
when government-sponsored women's groups demanded that she be expelled
from the country in what is clearly a concerted and coordinated campaign
that clearly specifies a hardening of policy. It also clearly demonstrates
that all political parties except those sponsored by the Burmese army will
have no future, to play after the new constitution, which is worst than
the 1977 Burmese Socialist Constitution. But the unmistakable message is
that the regime will not negotiate with the ethnic groups and the word
Federalism is as anathema as Daw Aung San Suu Kyi is. If possible would
like to exterminate all the un Burmanized ethnic groups in their quest to
have one nation (Burma), one language (Bama) and one religion Buddhist
better known as 3 Bs. Releasing of the few hundred political prisoners it
has endeavor to repair its image an also by the sham trial of Khin Nyunt,
the Junta wants to manifest to the international community that it is
moving to national reconciliation in lieu with the National Convention. So
from these events it is predictable that the National Convention in
November year will be just a brief short sessions and discussion will not
be allowed and every body must be a chameleon nodding their heads, if they
did not want their heads to be chopped off.

Diaspora Front

Anybody desirous to make a move both in the national and international
front needs to have the people's mandate. Countless articles have been
written that the NLD, which have the people's mandate could not move a bit
as not only its head Daw Suu is under lock and key but also its body, the
NLD central committee was scrutinized every move. Hence the historical
duty fell on the shoulder of the Burmese Diaspora.  But the Burmese
Diaspora was not homogeneous lot there are the ethnic group under the
umbrella of EN and the Burman group under the umbrella of the UB and LA
groups.  No doubt Burmese dissidents in exile together with their
supporters around the world have transformed what had been an obscure
democratic struggle in Burma into one of the largest human rights
campaigns in the world. Almost in every country, Burmese dissidents and
their supporters have successfully used of the Internet to form coalitions
and share strategies and highlighted the Burmese cause in their efforts to
weaken the grip of the military rulers of Burma. But now it seems that
they have come to a full stop and is endeavoring to find the next move.

Conceivable Solution

After one and half decades of struggle, whether one likes it or not the
mantle has fallen on the EN group to make a move and approach the various
Burman groups to form a central authority. If not, we will be in the
doldrums for another half a century and the various groups and strata will
also be surviving on the dole out of the NGOs. Even though the EN has
clearly realize that they are unable to face the Junta without the support
of the Burman group, yet we have not notice any move in that directions.
They are now in the position to visualize that if they don't unite the
country and people will continue to suffer as according to the Burmese
rhyme Sit Bo, Taik Hsauk, SitTthar, Gyaing Htauk and Pyi Thu, Baik Hmauk
literally interpreted means the generals will continue to prosper
constructing new houses, while a private soldier will be on the crutches
having fought so many battles and the people have nothing to eat will have
to sleep on their stomach to ease the pain of hunger. It is high time that
the EN should prove to the Burman that they are not racist but one of them
and at the same time take the initiative and educate their brethren
especially the Wa and the Kachin and entirely stop letting the Junta to
swindling the ethnic nationalities.

Credit should be given to where credit is due, the FTUB should be given
the credit because it has thoroughly done its homework and the Junta is
now thinking of withdrawing from the ILO, but if the FTUB is of any
relation with the NCUB they should advice them to stop quarrelling with
the NCGUB and come up as a united UB front in approaching the EN group. 
On the other hand is the historical task for the EN to play the role of
the peacemaker, if they want to be the children of God.

The ethnic minorities who make up more than half of Burma's population
that dominate the country's peripheral regions, have fought against the
central government on and off since independence but the Junta has slyly
managed to arrange uneasy ceasefires with 17 of them. Now, the Junta is
forcing the ceasefire groups be disarm, and pursue their goals through the
political process outlined in the road map. The architect of the truces,
Khin Nyunt, was long gone and even though representatives of the ethnic
militias are still participating in the National Convention, the Junta has
completely ignored most of their suggestions. Indeed, the Junta had
recently signal its intransigence by arresting the leader of one ceasefire
group the (SSNA), along with various other politicians from Burma's
biggest ethnic minority, the Shan drawing the conclusion that most of the
ceasefire will not dare to go back to war.  Most of these cease- fire
groups knew this as a trap and so far only one small group has surrendered
its weapons. Others, especially the United Wa State Army and the Kachin
are still well armed. The SSNA has shows its example by merging with
another fighting Shan group and continue to resist. In face of such a
scenario it is up to the dexterity of the EN groups to organize the
formidable Wa and the Kachin, to drive home the point that their tribes
would soon be extinct in the near future if they go along with the Junta
and would soon be in the annals book of history books because the top
brass is determined to press on with its plans, even in the face of fierce
resistance.

It would be not much of a problem for the EN to organize these two groups
as after the National Convention, they have realize the true intention of
the Burmese brass.  Besides, the younger generation of these two groups
who are going to be potential leaders are more educated then their ageing
leaders. The triumph card is held by EN, if they can weed out the pro
Burman leaders in time. But the EN groups should also realize that they
must think in terms of the whole country, if they want to have the support
of the entire people of Burma other than their own tribe or race. They
must think for the salvation of the entire country, if they are desirous
to get the peoples' support. They cannot afford to ignore the pro
democracy groups who are the majority, even though they may be splinter
hopelessly. So among the Burma groups they should invite those who are
willing to cooperate and work with them for the Democratic Federal
Pyidaungsu and by passed the extremist Burman groups who are vociferous
and refused to participate. This will be the very first step and after
recruiting the academics, and the intelligentsia, they will get the
mandate and began to move both in the international and national circle.

We should note that the Diaspora works from the outside, and is not afraid
to confront issues, he is extremely familiar with western ways therefore
makes him a valuable commodity. He acts out his ideas to test
probabilities and moves accordingly.  The other person is an ethnic
nationality and although working to a similar pattern, works from the
inside, and on the battlefield, therefore holds first hand knowledge of
the situation on the ground. What we now need is the nexus of these two.
We must understand that both work for the same goal even though they work
independently of each other but, inadvertently perhaps, are building the
same wall, they simply started at opposite ends? (Please read UK.org.
Collective comment of the 15th July issue) Of course there will be some
differences in the combination of bricks and perhaps the type of brick
used, but in essence, the individual  skills held by each party is the key
to a door which for too long, has kept Burma imprisoned?  The job requires
two determined minds of different categories, which can battle out
solutions without holding back through fear or criticism, even if at
times, they lose their footing and are forced to back peddle for a while.
These two groups are most prominent figures to emerge from what was
decades of stagnation. For many years the same old voices and loyalties to
tradition, and the inaptness of those who have dictated progress, or the
lack of it, now finally it is time to meet.  Both have displayed their
courage in different ways, but both have moved the goal posts of Burma
politics into focus. They have travel to the same destination, but it is
inexorable their routes will meet.

Once this central authority is formed then the Burmese intelligentsia
including our foreign advisors and donors will flock to give advice and
help to this authority of how to steer our noble cause.  Because of their
critical reasoning skills, intellectuals are obligated to raise questions
of social and political importance. Because the domain of the critical
intellectual is to write and speak within the public sphere, denouncing
oppression and fighting for justice, human rights, and other values so
dear to our heart. Given the cruelly repressive nature of the regime, the
Burmese intellectuals inside the country is finding extremely difficult to
fulfill the role of the critical thinking. But this critical thinking both
inside and outside Burma, is crucial to finding a solution of our
country's troubles and would be very happy to corporate with this central
authority going all the way step by step.  The nixies of the domestic
policy (Diaspora policy or rather the Home policy) with the foreign policy
are very crucial, if not, the key to the success of our cherished goal.

We should bear in mind that the NLD is willing to be flexible if the
generals would only agree to negotiate and there is talk of ending the
party's support for international sanctions and calling for more foreign
investment and tourism, including a prominent role for the army in
politics. This proposal if carried out, will surely sideline the ethnic
group as in the days of U Nu and so the EN must not missed this golden
opportunity to transform itself as a serious working group capable of
representing the whole country and people and a viable alternative other
than the Junta. This seems to be the only solution for the moment.

It seems ridiculous to write confidential policy papers on the Internet
where there is public access rather than presenting them to the central
authority. But in the absence of the latter there seems to remain little
choice. The top secret has become bottom open for there is no platform to
write such policy papers save through the Internet. We hope and pray that
the leaders of the Diaspora are wary and wise, and will not shirk away
from their duty to take the initiative.