BurmaNet News, August 13-15, 2005

[Editor]

August 13-15, 2005 Issue # 2782


INSIDE BURMA
AFP: Myanmar tightens screws after abandoning ASEAN chair: analysts
Irrawaddy: Obituary: Tun Wai
Mizzima: KNU criticizes Burma Junta for arrest of Karen
Mizzima: Junta trying for a split in unified KSC
Mizzima: Lord Buddha's tooth in Burma stolen
DVB: Burma junta suspends ‘nuclear’ project

ON THE BORDER
Irrawaddy: Import restrictions threaten border traders
Mizzima: Economic blockade lift-off in Burma bordering state

BUSINESS / FINANCE
AFP: Myanmar predicts jump in exports to four billion dollars
Reuter: China, India zero in on Kazakh, Myanmar fuel assets

REGIONAL
The Star: Kuan Yew: Myanmar can't stay frozen

OPINION / OTHER
The West Australian: Burmese locked into a nightmare
Nation: Thaksin goes to Washington for support


____________________________________
INSIDE BURMA

August 15, Agence France Presse
Myanmar tightens screws after abandoning ASEAN chair: analysts

Three weeks after Myanmar agreed to forgo the chairmanship of ASEAN, the
country's military rulers have tightened the screws at home ahead of a new
round of constitutional talks, analysts and government sources said.

The junta agreed on July 26 to skip its turn in the rotating chairmanship
of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, bypassing a showdown with
the United States and the European Union which had threatened to boycott
the group's meetings under Yangon's leadership.

Analysts here said that decision had caused Myanmar to lose some face but
had staved off many other headaches -- not least of which was the mounting
pressure to free Nobel peace laureate Aung San Suu Kyi from house arrest
before taking the chair.

It also spared the junta from trying to control the inevitable invasion of
foreign journalists who would have flocked to ASEAN meetings here.

"We were let off the hook, thanks to the Americans," a high-level foreign
ministry source told AFP.

US pressure to forgo the chairmanship had "played right into our hands,"
the source said on condition of anonymity.

With the spotlight now shifted away, the junta has turned to shoring up
its authority.

"The military government is now showing increasing signs of further
centralising its power and tightening up its control in every respect,"
said one local analyst.

Diplomats have noted that Myanmar is making life more difficult for United
Nations agencies in Yangon, as well as for non-governmental organizations
which find it harder to work in the field as their travel becomes more
restricted.

The junta is also returning its focus to implementing what it calls its
seven-point "road map to democracy".

It has organized a series of public rallies at which military-sponsored
groups as well as "reserve forces" such as war veterans roundly denounce
"internal and external destructionists", condemn international groups like
the UN's International Labor Organization, and back the military's
political agenda.

Drafting a new constitution is the first step on the road map but the
National Convention tasked with the job was suspended in late March.

Veteran Myanmar politician Win Naing said the junta is obsessed with its
pursuit of the road map, which Western governments and the UN have
dismissed as a sham.

"The military authorities firmly believe that their long declared
seven-point political road map is the only way out from their present
predicament," Win Naing told AFP.

"They are therefore totally determined to go through with it, like it or
not."

Preparations for a new round of talks have been stepped up, with
Information Minister Major General Kyaw San leading much of the effort to
resume discussions, possibly by October.

The military appears committed to the road map despite having sacked the
man who announced it in 2003, former premier Khin Nyunt. He was deposed
last October and his powerful military intelligence dismantled.

He received a 44-year suspended sentence in July on eight charges
including bribery and corruption but remains under house arrest.

The military also plans to centralize its operations by moving the seat of
government to Pyinmana 600 kilometres (360 miles) north of Yangon, where a
100-million-dollar complex is being built, military and construction
sources said.

Only seven percent of the complex is complete, construction sources said,
but the military appears poised to move at least some operations there
within months.

"At the very least, some of the military establishments will be moved
there in October," a source close to the military told AFP.

Meanwhile, contributors to private journals and magazines say they face
heightened pressure from government and have received thinly-veiled
threats to toe the line.

The Foreign Correspondents Club, ostensibly an independent institution,
has been "kindly requested" by the information minister to keep him
briefed on its activities.

The tightening of controls comes as the military is scrambling to recover
millions of dollars lost in a well-planned scam by one of their own
trusted businessmen who funneled off money and gold bullion before fleeing
to Singapore, according to Myanmar business owners.

The culprit was the brother-in-law of a former agriculture minister and
the ex-minister is a close confidant of supreme ruler Senior General Than
Shwe, they said.

The former agriculture minister and his wife have been jailed for their
alleged part in the plot.

Possibly as part of the effort to track down the missing money, the
state-run Myanma Economic Bank last week took over the operations of the
privately owned Myanmar Universal Bank.

The economy remains on the slide, and the government has imposed new
regulations for export-import licences that now can only be issued by the
trade council, the highest authorizing body.

____________________________________

August 15, Irrawaddy
Obituary: Tun Wai (1920-2005)

Tun Wai, the famous Burmese film actor and democracy activist, died at his
home on Saturday aged 85.

Widely considered one of Burma’s greatest actors, Tun Wai won a string of
top acting awards before his strong political views eventually led to his
being banned from appearing in films. At one stage his name was not even
allowed to appear in print.

A prominent supporter of Burma’s democracy movement, Tun Wai was
instrumental in securing the involvement of Aung San Suu Kyi in the 1988
uprising, famously introducing the National League for Democracy
figurehead at her landmark speeches at Shwedagon Pagoda and Rangoon
General Hospital.

“We, and the struggle, lost a great person,” said NLD spokesman Soe Win.

Also known as a left-leaning politician of Chinese descent, Tun Wai was
arrested during the anti-Chinese riots of 1967. He is survived by his
wife, Htway Htway, and two sons, Kyaw Zwa Tun and San Tha Tun.

____________________________________

August 14, Mizzima News
KNU criticizes Burma Junta for arrest of Karen - Han Pai

A Karen National Union (KNU) official has criticized the Burmese military
regime for the arbitrary arrest of Karen people in Ayeyawady Division,
Einme Township for alleged contact with KNU insurgents.

KNU General Secretary Pado Man Shar said, "They should not do like that.
They arrested Karen people arbitrarily on unfounded accusations and
tortured them."

According to reports, about 50 villagers have been arrested since last
July in Tagu-seik Village, Einme township. They are accused of having
contact with KNU and possessing illegal arms.

Among them, a school teacher died following torture, the 'Democratic Voice
of Burma' (DVB) reported.

Similar incidents took place in 1990 in Bogale township, Ayeyawady division.

Pado Man Shar said, "In the Bogale incident, there were only a few cases
in connection with KNU. But they exaggerated the figure and killed many
people. Some villages were either relocated forcibly or their villages
were burned down. There were many similar incidents before. There should
be no more such incidents."

Ceasefire

Though there is a "gentleman agreement" for ceasefire between KNU and
State Peace and Development Council (SPDC), clashes and skirmishes are
still taking place.

KNU source said that they had not yet received official offer from SPDC
for ceasefire. They had only informal talks among themselves for peace.

KNU Chairman Pado Saw Ba Thin Sein sent an open letter to SPDC Chairman
Senior Gen. Than Shwe in June 2005. The letter said "the current political
and economic situation in Burma is deteriorating badly. So, we must accept
the real position and situation and proceed to meaningful and substantial
dialogues, which can resolve the current crises of Burma.

____________________________________

August 12, Mizzima News
Junta trying for a split in unified KSC - Myo Gyi

The Burmese junta, State Peace and Development Council (SPDC), is
persuading Col. La San Awng Wah to split from Kachin Solidarity Council
(KSC) and stand independently.

Junta’s Northern Regional Commander Maj. Gen. Maung Maung Swe sent a
telegram late last month to KSC, currently based on Sino-Burma border Pan
Wah, saying that they couldn't accept KSC's merger with New Democratic
Army-Kachin (NDA-K),led by U Zahkung Ting Ying  and offered  separate
territory for KSC if the organisation agreed to stand separately.

KSC leader N. Hkun Dwela (or) Col. Dwela said, "The SPDC might have some
ill intention. Some have split from the main organization. They are afraid
of them being strong. Since they are not the de jure government and such
de jure government hasn't yet emerged, they must follow divide and rule
policy with  us. I think this policy is totally wrong."

"Not only our two organizations, all organizations must come together to
build the genuine federal union. It cannot be done only by the SPDC. They
have only arms and power. We must strive for unity so that we become
strong. The SPDC is exploiting split of organizations and differing views
among them, this will only serve them only for a short  period to prolong
their power base. As for the federal union, it will create more crises and
obstacles.", he added.

 The Christian pastor N. Hkun Dwela a.k.a Col. Dwela and Col. La San Awng
Wah split from the biggest Kachin organization KIO and formed the KSC.
Regional commandant Lt. Gen. Maung Maung Swe urged Col. La San Awng Wah
to settle in the area arranged and prescribed by SPDC and do the
development work only when Col. Dwela met him at Myitkyina Regional
Command HQ on 29th July 2005.

KSC has total strength of 300 personnel and some of them would follow Col.
La San Awng Wah if he decides to accept the offer of SPDC and Col. Dwela
is under pressure now. But until now the Junta’s Northern Command hasn't
yet given any specific territory and arrangement to them.

Col. La San Awng Wah took refuge in NDA-K controlled Pan Wah area. He had
allegedly he taken part in last year aborted coup d'tetat in KIO. The then
Col. Dwela joined him later when he was released by KIO after being tried
and given death sentence for conspiracy with Col. Awng Wah in an aborted
coup.

Despite their great efforts, these two KIO splinter groups couldn't
succeed in reuniting and merging again.

____________________________________

August 15, Mizzima News
Lord Buddha's tooth in Burma stolen

In a sensational theft, which has left authorities dumbfounded a tooth of
Lord Buddha --a historic and religious relic was stolen on August 14. The
tooth was presented by the Chinese government to Burma.

Along with the tooth the thieves made off with, a small altar made of gold
that is currently valued at 50 million Kyat from the Buddha's Replica
Tooth Relic Pagoda (Swedaw Myat Pagoda) in Mayangone township in Rangoon.
The altar has been missing since Sunday morning, a source close to police
department said.

Police Confirm

When contacted by Mizzima, a police officer from the Mayangone Police
Station confirmed the theft.

"The Divisional and District Police Officers are now at the pagoda,
investigating it. We have detained some suspects but we do not know the
culprit (s) yet", he told Mizzima News over phone.

Gautama Buddha's sacred tooth was presented to the Burmese government by
China in 1994. The presentation was part of a programme of friendly
cooperation between the two countries.

The sacred tooth replica given its religious and historic value, was
enshrined in the Buddha's Replica Tooth Relic Pagoda, Rangoon on
Dhammapala Hill in Mayangone Township.

The pagoda is near the residence of the head of the military junta Senior
Gen. Than Shwe and is located in the same ward where he stays.

A tight security cordon has been thrown around the area. Investigations
are on.

____________________________________

August 12, Democratic Voice of Burma
Burma junta suspends ‘nuclear’ project

Due to recent power struggle within Burma’s military junta, State Peace
and Development Council (SPDC), works on secret nuclear project at Lun
Kyaw and Taung Taw Villages, Kyaukse Township, Mandalay Division in
central Burma have been suspended by the order of the junta’s chairman Gen
Than Shwe, according to sources close to military HQs in Rangoon.

North Korean experts had been leading the construction of a top secret
military complex in the valleys situated among Setchat Hills near Lun Kyaw
Village since 2000, and the ‘nuclear’ battalion is said to be supervised
by high-ranking Burmese military scholars who were trained in Russia.

Artillery, armoury and communication battalions are placed around Taung
Taw to protect the complex. It could only be accessed from heavily guarded
Han Myint Mo Village situated on Rangoon-Mandalay Highway or Naung Leng
village near Maymyo (Pyin Oo Lwin).

The place is said to be frequented by Rangoon Military commander and Chief
of Defence Services Military Security Maj-Gen Myint Swe and he reports
directly to Gen Than Shwe. Even ordinary military commanders are not
allowed to visit the secret complex.

The project was suspended after Gen Than Shwe’s close associate, education
minister Than Aung was removed from his position on 11 August.

____________________________________
ON THE BORDER

August 15, Irrawaddy
Import restrictions threaten border traders - Shah Paung

Burmese traders in the border town of Myawaddy in Karen State are feeling
the pinch of restrictions on access to markets in Burma—enforced by the
Burmese military manning checkpoints near the town—says a source close to
local traders.

In the past traders were allowed to travel from Myawaddy to Pa-an, the
capital of Karen State, where they would sell goods—medicine, clothing,
oil—imported from Thailand, providing that they paid the soldiers at the
checkpoints. For the last two weeks, however, the transport of goods to
Burma from Myawaddy has been strictly prohibited.

Some traders have struck deals with members of the Democratic Karen
Buddhist Army to transport them through the checkpoints in DKBA-owned
cars, according to Soe Soe, a resident of Myawaddy.

Traders attempting to pass the checkpoints in their own cars have been
arrested and their goods confiscated. One trader who specializes in the
sale of medicine was recently arrested, and Burmese soldiers confiscated
medicinal supplies worth nearly 30 million kyat (approximately US
$28,000).

Interference by Burmese soldiers has led to an increase in the local price
of commodities and a devaluation of the kyat, a situation that threatens
the livelihood of traders throughout the region, according to Soe Soe.

The Chinese news agency Xinhua reported on August 14 that the Burmese
government authorized the country’s trade council to take responsibility
for all direct import and export licenses for businesspeople conducting
foreign trade in the country.

Traders in Myawaddy do not know if the new policy for import/export
licenses has anything to do with the restrictions against transporting
their goods, but their inability to sell imported goods in Burma has led
to an economic downturn throughout the region.

____________________________________

August 13, Mizzima News
Economic blockade lift-off in Burma bordering state - Tin Zaw Moe

Naga Students have called-off the two month long road blockades, which
paralyzed trade and commerce in the Indian state of Manipur.

The All Naga Students Association Manipur called off on August 11 the road
blocks on Manipur's two arterial roads--National Highway 39 connecting
Guwahati,Dimapur,Kohima and Imphal and National Highway 53 linking
Guwahati with Silchar, Jerebam and Imphal. The blockades began on June 19.

The withdrawal of the blockades have been welcomed by the businessmen
operating in Manipur state.

“It was lifted at 12 noon. But the trucks were already lining up to go
ahead immediately. When it was under blockade, only the passenger cars
were allowed to pass through. But, after the blockade was lifted, the
goods and commodities were full even on the roof of Tata Sumo cars”, said
U Thu Ra, a Burmese democracy activist who live in Manipur.

Manipur's Chief Minister, Okram Ibobi Singh along with other political
leaders and civil societies welcomed the move. The economic blockade
freezed the flow of goods and commodities into the State and have only
allowed passengers without any goods.

The central government had to arrange supply of basic food and medicines
through air routes.

The President of All Naga Students Association Manipur, Paul Langhu, and
his counterpart in  Naga Students Federation Pushika Awomi in a joint
statement said the  blockade was lifted on humanitarian ground 
considering the difficulties of the people. They, however, warned that
same action would be taken if the government did not meet their demands.

”Now that the blockade has been lifted, the Indo-Burmese border trade
point, Nan Phalong market, has sprung back into life and normal business
has slowly come back. Goods from Burma are now being carried to India
thorough the border gate no. 2 and Indian goods coming from Imphal are
also traded in the Burmese territory," said a businessman, who is now at
Moreh town.

The currency exchange rate has reportedly gone down slightly since the
re-opening of the roads. During the blockade, the exchange rates reach up
to 2500 Burmese Kyats per 100 Indian Rupees.

However, it has now gone down to 2400 Kyats for a 100 Rupees after the
reopening.

_____________________________________
BUSINESS / FINANCE

August 14, Agence France Presse
Myanmar predicts jump in exports to four billion dollars

Military-ruled Myanmar expects its exports to jump to at least four
billion dollars this year, up from 2.9 billion last year, a senior trade
official told local media Sunday.

"In the first four months of this fiscal year up to July, Myanmar's
exports totalled 1.2 billion dollars, and official export volume for the
entire fiscal year is likely to reach at least four billion dollars,"
Brigadier General Maung Maung Thein, a member of the Myanmar Export Import
Supervisory Committee, said in the semi-official Myanmar Times.

Maung Maung Thein also accused businesses of deliberately undervaluing
their goods when they apply for export licenses in order to claim lower
taxes.

"If they listed the right prices on the invoices, Myanmar's exports would
likely reach about five billion during this fiscal year," he told a
Commerce Ministry meeting on August 5, the weekly said.

Myanmar's official statistics are notoriously unreliable, with large
amounts of cross-border trade taking place in frontier regions outside the
military government's control.

The country's economy has been reeling under decades of mismanagement by
the military. European Union and US sanctions that have been tightened
since the detention of opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi in May 2003 are
also biting hard.

In the last fiscal year, which ended March 31, Myanmar's exports totaled
2.9 billion dollars and imports reached 1.9 billion dollars, according to
official statistics.

____________________________________

August 15, Reuters
China, India zero in on Kazakh, Myanmar fuel assets - Charlie Zhu

Singapore: The upcoming sale of two major oil assets in Asia is set to
generate intense competition between Chinese and Indian state oil firms,
giving lie to the notion that the two may collaborate as they scramble for
overseas reserves.

China National Petroleum Corp. (CPNC) and India's Oil and Natural Gas
Corp. (ONGC) (ONGC.BO: Quote, Profile, Research) are in the running for
PetroKazakhstan Inc. (PKZ.TO: Quote, Profile, Research)(PKZ.N: Quote,
Profile, Research), a $3.2 billion Canada-based company with all its
assets in central Asia.

The expected sale by Chevron Inc. (CVX.N: Quote, Profile, Research) of its
$700 million-plus gas field stake in army-ruled Myanmar is also set to
stir up Chinese and Indian interest. Top firms from both nations are
already major investors in the gas-rich Southeast Asian country.

Ultimately, however, both could fail if project partners opt to excercise
their pre-emption rights, forcing the two to search even harder for a
dwindling pool of regional oil and gas prospects to help fuel their
fast-growing economies.

India's ambitious oil minister, Mani Shankar Aiyar, has urged Chinese and
Indian state energy firms to collaborate to prevent acquisition costs
climbing higher. But heated contests for these two latest assets
illustrate the difficulty of joining forces in the high-stakes game of oil
security.

The PetroKazakhstan sale will not be smooth, analysts say. PetroKazakhstan
has had rocky ties with Kazakh authorities. It was also caught in a battle
with Russia's LUKOIL (LKOH.MM: Quote, Profile, Research), its partner in a
joint-venture in the Central Asian country.

"I know that obviously the Chinese would be interested and the Indians may
be interested. But at the end of the day they need to work with the Kazakh
government and they have got to settle all the ligitation with LUKOIL,"
said a top investment banker familiar with the Kazakh oil industry.

CNPC, parent of PetroChina (0857.HK: Quote, Profile, Research)(PTR.N:
Quote, Profile, Research), is better placed to win the auction as
PetroKazakhstan would complement its already substantial presence in
Kazakhstan, sources said.

CNPC has built a mega pipeline pumping Kazakh crude oil to energy-starved
China, which is especially desperate for an overseas oil interest after
having lost in the race to acquire Unocal Corp.

"This is a complex issue. There are lots of legal issues," a source
familiar with the Chinese company said of hurdles faced by the
PetroKazakhstan sale. "We think CNPC is a front-runner."

An Indian oil ministry official told Reuters on Sunday ONGC had submitted
a bid to acquire PetroKazakhstan. Goldman Sachs, financial adviser for
PetroKazakhstan, declined to comment, while CNPC officials were not
immediately available.

Sources familiar with the bidding process said ONGC had a lower chance of
winning the company. Even if ONGC placed the highest bid, the Kazakh
government might exercise its first right of refusal before onselling it
to CNPC.

The Kazakh government has said it might exercise its rights to block any
sale of assets in the country by PetroKazakhstan.

PetroKazakhstan's New York-listed shares last traded at $43.53, surging
more than 70 percent since mid-May. Russian investment bank United
Financial Group said in a research note on Monday any bidder would need to
pay a premium for a controlling stake.

Assuming long-term Brent prices at $35-$40 a barrel, "a bidding range of
between $45-$50 a share is justified," it said. Brent crude is trading
above $66 a barrel on Friday.

MYANMAR GAS ON THE BLOCK?

PetroKazakhstan and Chevron's Myanmar assets are not expected to get much
attention from Western majors because of regulatory or legal risks.

U.S. oil producer Unocal, which has just been taken over by Chevron, has
faced a series of protests from human rights activists over its business
in Myanmar.

Chevron has not yet made public its plan on the Myanmar assets, which
include a 28.26 percent stake in the offshore Yadana field, which mainly
supplies the Thai market, and a gas pipeline. But it is widely expected to
sell its stakes in the country to avoid more protests or lawsuits.

"So many people are interested, but I don't know if they are going to do
it through bilateral talks or an auction," a person close to the situation
said. He expects Chevron would kick off the sale later this year.

CNPC and ONGC would certainly want to expand their presence in Myanmar,
experts said. India is hoping to build a natural gas pipeline from Myanmar
to help meet its growing demand.

But a Merrill Lynch research note said shareholders in Yadana, including
Thailand's state-run PTTEP (PTTE.BK: Quote, Profile, Research) that
already owns 25.5 percent stake in the field would most likely be the
winner as it could exercise its pre-emption right.

It is not clear whether the other Yadana shareholders, France's Total SA
(TOTF.PA: Quote, Profile, Research), which holds a 31.24 percent, and the
Myanmar Oil and Gas Enterprise, with a 15 percent stake, would also
exercise their first right of refusal.

____________________________________
REGIONAL

August 12, The Star via Straits Times
Kuan Yew: Myanmar can't stay frozen

Singapore: Myanmar must face up to the fact that the world is changing and
moving ahead and it cannot stay "frozen in time", said Minister Mentor Lee
Kuan Yew.

In an interview with Japan's Yomiuri Shimbun, he warned that the problems
of the military-controlled country would spill into the wider region.

"To stay frozen in time means they are building up problems for
themselves, and those problems will overflow into Asean," he said.

Last month, at an Asean ministerial meeting in Vientiane, Myanmar gave up
its chairmanship of the grouping for next year to focus on its internal
political situation.

Asked about the move, Lee noted that it "avoids embarrassment but the
problem still remains". He believed that Myanmar's lack of prosperity
compared with its richer neighbour, Thailand, would cause unhappiness
among its people.

One of Myanmar's major problems, he felt, was the lack of agricultural R&D.

_____________________________________
OPINION / OTHER

August 15, The West Australian
Burmese locked into a nightmare - P T Singam

Junta remains free to rule by fear but ASEAN flexes its muscles and offers
a glimmer of hope

Another year has passed since the Burmese military crushed pro-democracy
protests, yet the regime remains firmly in power and the people are no
closer to regaining any of their freedoms.

The crackdown on August 8, 1988 - better known as the tragedy of 8888 -
was remembered this week by Burmese expatriate communities and their
friends around the world.

In Perth, the frustration and despair of Burmese expatriates and their
friends were fully evident as they pleaded for Australian Government and
international action against atrocities and abuses perpetrated by the
junta in Rangoon.

State politicians of both persuasions railed against the inability of the
Federal Government, regional authorities and the United Nations to take
collective action.

Planning and Infrastructure Minister Alannah MacTiernan, who has a 30-year
association with Burma, declared that "tyranny creates nothing but
international instability", and despaired that the gathering was doing
nothing more than preaching to the converted. She called for wider
community involvement to stir up Federal and international action.

Liberal MP Ray Halligan was disillusioned that he was attending the
gathering for the seventh year with no progress in sight. He was
particularly disappointed with UN efforts, which mirrored the UN's failure
to act in Rwanda and the Balkans.

"Maybe, we should send our SAS troops in to grab the generals, bring them
here, put them on trial and banish them to a prison in Antarctica," he
said.

Of course, Mr Halligan knows that such action would not come, considering
regional sensitivities, but his sentiment is clearly representative of the
views of most people disappointed with events in Burma.

Every year for two decades, Burma's leaders have promised change but
failed to deliver. The generals claim the economy is doing well, the
people are not going hungry and there are no human rights abuses.

But there is ample evidence that things are not rosy. There are 70,000
child soldiers, women are frequently raped by soldiers, people are
routinely abused and tortured, more than 1000 political prisoners remain
in jails and border refugee camp populations have swelled to 100,000 in 20
years.

The secretive and paranoid Government has not allowed the UN special
rapporteur to visit for more than a year and has turned against the
International Labour Organisation and other international bodies.

It says it is working through the national convention to draw up a new
constitution that will lead to elections and democracy, but the convention
is flawed. How could there be democracy when Nobel laureate Aung San Suu
Kyi remains under house arrest and her opposition National League for
Democracy, which won nearly 80 per cent of seats in the 1990 elections, is
not represented at the convention.

Sanctions by the West, particularly the United States, have not worked.
Neither has constructive engagement by countries of the region. The
sanctions might have made it slightly uncomfortable for the generals but
they have not made life difficult. The failure of sanctions can be
attributed to the lack of agreement within the international community on
how to deal with the military regime and deep divisions among the Burmese
inside and outside the country.

The US has banned imports and financial dealings, but European banks are
still dealing with the generals. Australia, which has limited economic
dealings with Burma, has banned defence exports and travel by military
leaders and shelved a human rights education program.

But China is investing in the Burmese economy and even strengthening its
military links, and so are Thailand and many countries in the region.
Japan has resumed aid to the country and India is looking to invest there.
These are contradictory signals to the generals.

Burma is the world's second biggest heroin grower. It is spreading AIDS
and other diseases and its refugees are a burden for neighbouring
countries trying to improve conditions for their own people.

Most Association of South-East Asian Nations members are realising that
the sooner Burma becomes transparent and democratic the better it will be
for the whole region. That view was reflected at the recent ASEAN meeting
in Laos, where Burma was pressed to give up its chairmanship of ASEAN next
year. The move does not bring immediate change for the Burmese, but it
signals the regional grouping's preparedness to move from non-interference
to constructive intervention when problems in one country threaten the
stability of the region.

The formation of the ASEAN inter-Parliamentary Burma Caucus by Malaysia,
Indonesia, Thailand, Singapore, Philippines and Cambodia is an important
development; it could become the prime mover of regional support for
change.

The caucus, says Malaysian chairman Zaid Ibrahim, wants governments to
persuade Burma to make good its assurance when it joined ASEAN in 1997
that it would move forward with political reform. The caucus wants Ms Suu
Kyi released and people allowed basic freedoms

No longer can the military regime dismiss international concerns as
meddling or intimidation by the West. It cannot talk of imperialism or the
West imposing its values. The call for change is coming from within the
region - and Burma is keen to remain in the good books of ASEAN, China and
India.

Next, the ASEAN caucus could target interests in their countries that are
investing in Burma, pressing them to seek reforms or run the risk of
financial loss. Australian groups, such as the WA Friends of Burma
parliamentary group, could link up with the ASEAN caucus and support a
campaign by Burmese groups for action by the UN Security Council.

China might be reluctant to report Burma to the Security Council but it
must realise that democratic change in Burma is inevitable and the longer
it supports the military regime the greater will be the instability along
its southern border.

_____________________________________

August 15, The Nation
Thaksin goes to Washington for support - Kavi Chongkittavorn

After two and half years of waiting, Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra is
scheduled on September 19 to visit the White House in Washington for a
summit meeting with US President George W Bush. He will first stopover in
New York to attend the United Nations World Summit from September 14-16.

The trip comes at the time when his popularity at home is taking a plunge,
following a series of corruption scandals and the much criticised
imposition of the Emergency Powers Act. Internationally, Thailand’s
reputation and image have been further tarnished by continuing violence
and violations of human rights in southern Thailand.

In the first half of this year, Thaksin has already seen the Asean leaders
from Indonesia, Vietnam and Singapore pay high-profile visits to
Washington. Thais view this as a strong sign of a new pattern of US
interest in Southeast Asia under the second Bush administration.

US policy-makers are no longer solely relying on the so-called traditional
allies such as Thailand and the Philippines. Under US Secretary of State
Condoleezza Rice, Jakarta, Hanoi and especially Singapore have emerged as
reliable strategic partners. For instance, the US and Singapore recently
signed the strategic framework agreement, which will further strengthen
their security and strategic cooperation. Although Singapore is not an
American ally, its security activities with the US are far more intense
than the US-Philippine or US-Thai alliances. In the near future, expansion
of US cooperation on strategic matters with Indonesia and Vietnam is
likely to increase.

This trend has caused high anxieties, not to mention heartache, at
Santimaitri Building, which would like to see Thaksin shaking hands with
US President George W Bush in his office as soon as possible. After all,
he has yet to make an official visit to the US, even though he has been in
power since 2001. This will be his third short “working” visit.

When he visited the White House in June 2003, Thaksin was at the pinnacle
of his power. He managed to have a tete-a-tete with Bush at the Oval
Office even though his trip was primarily to give a business-lunch
address. It worked out fine for both leaders as they knew what each other
wanted. The outcome was that Thailand’s status was elevated to that of a
major non-Nato ally, the last of the Asia-Pacific allies of the US to get
the privilege. Bush praised Thaksin for his effort to fight international
terrorism.

The US also signalled its readiness for free-trade-agreement negotiations
with Thailand. In return, Thaksin on his own committed to dispatch Thai
troops to aid US-led efforts in Iraq.

Will the forthcoming meeting be similar in fashion to that of June 2001?
Assuredly not, as this is not a trip about Thaksin. It is about Thai-US
relations and US interests in the region. Next month’s meeting will be
genteel, of course, but firm and for three reasons.

First of all, Thailand is facing a huge time bomb in the South. While both
countries want to combat terrorism, Thailand is seeking further US
understanding for its failure to keep its promise to dispatch troops to
Iraq following the first mission that ended last September. Granted the
current situation in the three troubled southern provinces, having Thai
troops in Iraq could add fuel to the fire.

The US fears that if the South is not stabilised it will be fertile ground
for foreign terrorists with possible links to al-Qaeda or other militant
groups to meddle with the local situation. Furthermore, the US wishes to
see Thailand more active not only in counter-terrorism campaign but in
counter-proliferation on weapons of mass destruction.

Recently Bangkok has turned down Washington’s call to sign the
Proliferation Security Initiative, which Singapore, the only Asean member,
has joined. Thaksin might reconsider this position on the eve of his visit
next month.

Second, both countries want to push for the conclusion of a free-trade
agreement (FTA). To this end a firmer commitment from both sides is
needed. The US often offers an FTA as a foreign-policy incentive to
allies. But the success of a Thai-US FTA would need support of the US
Congress, and Thailand’s reputation among US lawmakers is at its lowest
ebb.

Apart from its gross human-rights violations, muzzling of the media and
promotion of a culture of impunity, the Thaksin government has pursued a
pro-Burma policy that has strengthened the hand of the Burmese junta and
led to the widespread mistreatment of thousands of Burmese refugees.

Thai-US relations are under closer scrutiny by US lawmakers than ever
before. The Bush administration needs to balance the US Congress’ concerns
with its own agenda, or else FTA negotiations and other aspects of
bilateral ties may be hampered.

The final point has to do with the Chinese factor in Thai-US relations.
Thailand’s growing closeness with China is no secret. It has already
raised eyebrows in Washington. Strong ethnic and business connections that
Thaksin and his party’s top echelon have enjoyed with China in recent
years have dwarfed the traditional rapports the Thai leaders have had with
the US, even though it is one the country’s top three investors.

If Thaksin continues his strongman style of politics and diplomacy, it
will further irritate the US government and the Congress. That would have
serious repercussions for future Thai-US relations and subsequently could
push Thailand deeper into China’s embrace.