BurmaNet News, August 25, 2005

[Editor]

August 25, 2005 Issue # 2790


INSIDE BURMA
Reuters: Myanmar coup rumours die but mysteries remain
SHAN: Junta waging secret war against Wa
Irrawaddy: NLD cartoonist freed
DVB: A team of high-ranking Burmese officers to visit Russia soon
DVB: Instability leaves Burmese orphans at risk of hunger

REGIONAL
AFP: Thai PM says Myanmar coup rumours untrue

INTERNATIONAL
Bangkok Post: Thai PM to visit US next month
Mizzima: Burma campaigners protest against Total and Daewoo companies

OPINION / OTHER
Irrawaddy: Wishful-thinking in Rangoon

INTERVIEW
Radio Free Asia: Burmese opposition leaders angry about exclusion from
top-secret meeting in United Kingdom

____________________________________
INSIDE BURMA

August 25, Reuters
Myanmar coup rumours die but mysteries remain - Aung Hla Tun

YANGON (Reuters) - The whereabouts of Than Shwe, leader of Myanmar's
secretive junta, remained a mystery on Thursday, but rumours he had been
ousted by the army chief were dying rapidly.

The most popular explanation was that Than Shwe, 73, who appears in the
media only rarely, was in a hospital in Yangon's military zone and General
Maung Aye, the army chief and number two in the junta, was acting in his
stead.

"So far as we've heard, he was sent to the Mingaladon military hospital.
We don't know any further details," said U Lwin, the spokesman for
detained democracy icon Aung San Suu Kyi's National League for Democracy
(NLD).

Than Shwe's last media appearance was on August 19 when he met special
United Nations envoy Ali Alatas, the Indonesian former foreign minister.

The state-run media in the former Burma made no mention on Thursday of
either Than Shwe or the rumours of his ouster which swept Myanmar and
neighbouring Thailand a day earlier.

Officials, who rarely talk to journalists in a country ruled by the
military in various guises since 1962, were unreachable for comment.

But Thai Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra shrugged off the rumours as
baseless.

"The information we've got is that they are not true," he told a news
conference. "We have checked with every source. It was not true."

RUMOURS, HOPE, DISAPPOINTMENT

There had been no unusual military or police activity in Yangon on
Wednesday, leading diplomats to disbelieve the rumours, but the prices of
gold and the kyat currency moved, reflecting unease among ordinary people.

But the prices of both began to drift back to previous levels on Thursday
as the intensity of the rumours dissipated.

Gold, which rose from 270,000 kyat per tical (0.525 troy ounce) on Tuesday
to 276,300 kyat on Wednesday, dipped to 275,000 kyat.

The black market price of the kyat -- whose official exchange rate is
around 6 to the dollar -- dropped from 1,120 to 1,178 on Wednesday but had
recovered to 1,170 on Thursday morning, dealers said.

Rumours about what is going on in the military have been rife since
General Khin Nyunt was ousted unceremoniously as prime minister and
military intelligence chief last October.

That was followed by the mass release of prisoners the junta said had been
jailed improperly by military intelligence and the inclusion of a few
political detainees raised hopes it was serious about a seven-step road to
democracy Khin Nyunt had announced.

But, as has happened so often before in Myanmar as events spawned hope,
nothing appears to have changed.

Suu Kyi is still under house arrest and her NLD effectively barred from a
conference writing a new constitution critics say will merely cement the
military regime in place.

Nor do long-time Myanmar watchers expect things to change.

"If there were to be a change in leadership, I don't see any indication
that that would lead to a change in policies towards Aung San Suu Kyi or
the pro-democracy movement," said Robert Karniol, the Asia-Pacific editor
of Jane's Defence Weekly.

"There seems to be a very monolithic political viewpoint within the armed
forces and I don't see that being readjusted by a change of personality,"
he said.

"There is competition between individuals or blocks of individuals, but I
don't see a hardline verses moderate split within the armed forces."

____________________________________

August 25, Shan Herald Agency for News
Junta waging secret war against Wa

Burma watchers on both sides of the Tachilek-Maesai border believe the
military rulers of the country are launching a covert campaign on its own
strongest ally against the Shan State Army:

"Everything points out to an undercover warfare against the United Wa State
Army" said a long-time resident on the Tachilek-Maesai border:

* Politically, the Wa's political ally, the Shan State Peace Council, has
been shattered following the arrest of its leader Gen Hso Ten in February
thereby leaving the Wa politically vulnerable

* Militarily, the Burma Army has, for more than a year, been deploying
its troops in Shan State with the aim to outflank the ceasefire groups
especially the Wa

* Financially, the UWSA is also admittedly reeling under the strain caused
by Rangoon's seemingly accidental measures, such as the closures of Asia
Wealth Bank, Mayflower Bank (where Wa leader Bao Youxiang was reported to
hold 43% shares) and Myanmar Universal Bank (where the Wa's "remote
control" Wei Hsuehkang was said to be enjoying substantial holdings) and
the crackdown on unlicensed cars, the bulk of which were reportedly owned
by the Wa and its business company, Hongpang."

All the 42 names on the list of the Special Investigation Bureau that
arrived in Tachilek on Tuesday (22 August) are associates of U Tar Wai
(who has been arrested) and Wei himself, I was told," said a source close
to the official circle.

None of the sources asked by S.H.A.N. however has seen any Wa car seized
by the authorities. "Maybe the handover is being done quietly," said one,
"since the Hongpang office is just next door to Light Infantry Battalion
331 post. Of course, it is not the Wa way to give up anything without
orders from their superiors."

The deadline for submission of all unregistered vehicles is tomorrow,
Friday 26 August.

Asked why Rangoon is not fighting an open war that would likely have won
acclaims from both the Thais and the Americans, a border watcher much
respected in his community said, "That wouldn't be a smart move. It would
instead have alerted all and only got things out of hand. This way,
dealing with the Wa individually and on individual issues, is better. And
by the time they realize what's happening, it'll be too late for them."

Meanwhile, Wa officers in Mongton, opposite Chiangmai, are reportedly 
becoming uneasy about more Burma Army units stationing around their bases.

"We've asked Panghsang several times what we should do about it,"
complained a frustrated lieutenant colonel. "But our leaders are still 
keeping us in suspense."

____________________________________


August 25, Irrawaddy
NLD cartoonist freed

Chit Swe, a cartoonist and vice chairman of the National League for
Democracy in Thanlyin Township, was released from prison today, a
spokesperson for Burma’s main opposition party confirmed. Chit Swe was
arrested on July 12 after he held a gathering at his home without
obtaining permission from the authorities. He was sentenced to a month in
prison at a closed hearing on August 3. Burmese law states that gatherings
of five or more people are illegal unless prior permission has been
granted by the ruling State Peace and Development Council. Chit Swe’s
cartoons are published in Burmese monthly journals such as Dhana and
Myanma Dhana.

_____________________________________

August 24, Democratic Voice of Burma
A team of high-ranking Burmese officers to visit Russia soon

While rumours about Burma’s military junta, State Peace and Development
Council (SPDC) chairman Gen Than Shwe have been flying in Rangoon, a team
of high-ranking Burmese army officers are planning to visit Russia soon,
according to sources close to the military HQs in Rangoon.

The sources told DVB that the team is likely to be headed by the SPDC
vice-chairman Gen Maung Aye or Gen Shwe Mann. Although neither the exact
time nor purpose of the trip is not known, it could be related to the top
military secret ‘nuclear’ project at Kyaukse, Mandalay Division in central
Burma.

The project was suspended recently after high-raking military officials at
the Prime Minister Office and Than Shwe’s confidante education minister
Than Aung were removed from their positions.


_____________________________________

August 24, Democratic Voice of Burma
Instability leaves Burmese orphans at risk of hunger

Due to the ongoing banking problems, rapidly rising commodity price and
political instability in Burma, fewer people have been donating food and
other needs for orphans and poor children who are taking refuge in
orphanages, monasteries and nunneries.

A schoolgirl who frequents Suhtoopan Buddhist Monastery which looks after
around 300 children at Thanlyin (Syriam) near Rangoon, told DVB that the
monastery is desperately looking for new donors to cover for previous
donors who have disappeared due to various problems in the country.

“There are not many (donors) as before. The children are in trouble.
Previously, there were extra donations. We had nothing to worry for the
children then, but we have to now," she said.

At the same time, the monks, nuns and teachers who look after the children
are also finding it hard to procure food even for themselves. A monk who
doesn’t want to be named argued that rich and famous monasteries which
boast powerful and rich generals and businessmen as their patrons should
help those less fortunate monasteries and nunneries.

_____________________________________
REGIONAL

August 25, Agence France Presse
Thai PM says Myanmar coup rumours untrue

Bangkok: Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra said Thursday that Thailand has
discounted rumours of a coup in Myanmar which have circulated in the
military-run country this week, causing the kyat currency to fall.

"The coup d'etat in Myanmar is not true. It is a rumour that has been
released. We have checked the information with all of our sources," he
said at a regular press conference.

The rumours emerged on Tuesday, apparently triggered by an interview on
BBC's Burmese-language radio that said Myanmar's military ruler Senior
General Than Shwe had been forced to retire by number-two General Maung
Aye.

Diplomats in the Myanmar capital Yangon said the city was quiet, that the
government was giving every sign of being in business as usual, and that
they were extremely sceptical a coup had taken place.

"Everybody is aware of the rumours, yet it remains that there's no
evidence whatsoever that anything has happened," one western diplomat told
AFP.

The diplomat, speaking on the usual condition of anonymity, said the
rumours that General Maung Aye and his allies had taken over could also
have been fuelled by activity surrounding the birth of his grandchild this
week.

"That led to his presence at the hospital along with the health minister
... and fed into stories that Than Shwe was actually in the hospital as
well and was sick," he said.

By Thursday morning, Myanmar's non-convertible kyat had fallen from 1,170
to 1,165 on the black market, although trading in gold had settled down
after initial rises.

"Speculators usually make a killing in gold whenever panic is caused among
the general public and although the rumor was short-lived, many rushed to
the gold market to buy just in case something happened," said one
businessman.

Observers in Myanmar said that although the rumours were now dying down,
the speed with which they spread was a sign of desperation among its
citizens for political change after four decades of military rule.

"The military government has done nothing either to quash the widespread
rumour or try to calm down the panicky public who predictably rushed to
buy gold," said one local political analyst.

The population is also on tenterhooks after two sets of reshuffles in
recent months that have seen a number of powerful military leaders and
government ministers change posts.

The shake-ups are part of an ongoing junta effort to reorganise and
promote its staunchest loyalists after Prime Minister Khin Nyunt was
ousted last October in a sweeping purge.

Khin Nyunt, seen by some observers as a more liberal figure in the hawkish
regime, received a 44-year suspended sentence last month after being
convicted on eight charges including bribery and corruption.

_____________________________________
INTERNATIONAL

August 25, Bangkok Post
Thai PM to visit US next month

Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra will visit the United States next month
to deliver a speech at the United Nations and lobby for his deputy
Surakiart Sathirathai to become UN secretary-general.

During his Sept 11-19 stay, Mr Thaksin will meet US President George W
Bush for discussions that will include the Thai-US free trade area (FTA)
agreement.

At the UN headquarters, Mr Thaksin will speak on measures to reform the UN
to reduce poverty and improve sustainable development.

Mr Thaksin would also seek support for Mr Surakiart to become the next UN
secretary-general. A vote will be held late next year to choose who gets
the top UN job from among the candidates.

Before heading to the US, Mr Thaksin will visit Morocco from Sept 8-11.

During his visit, he will discuss the transit of Thai cargoes through the
country to other parts of the African continent, the possibilities for
investment by Thai businesses in tourism and hotels and import duty
exemptions for Thai rice.


August 25, Mizzima News
Burma campaigners protest against Total and Daewoo companies - Nem Davies

Campaigners and Burma Pro-Democracy activists plan to stage a massive
demonstration in Netherlands on October 14 to protest against the Total
and Daewoo Company’s investments in Burma.

The campaigners group of Burma Centrum Nederland (BCN) and Young
Socialists will organize the demonstration which will start outside the
French Embassy and will conclude outside the South-Korean Embassy in the
Hague.

"During this demonstration we will protest against the human rights
violations caused by the Yadana gas pipeline project of Total and the weak
French-Burma policy because of Total’s investments in Burma," said a Press
release.

The contention of the Burma Campaign UK is that, "foreign investments in
Burma have given the military regime billions of pounds, helping the
regime expand the army and cling to power. Our campaign aims to cut this
economic lifeline by increasing pressure on the companies to withdraw from
Burma and raising public awareness of the issues relating to Burma".

John Jackson, Director of the Burma Campaign UK said that, "Total has done
more than any other company to help prop up the regime in Burma".

In a statement the Burma Campaign UK said that, Total Oil is the fourth
largest oil company in the world and one of the biggest foreign investors
in Burma.

"They have business with Burma’s brutal military dictatorship. The joint
venture -- the Yadana gas project in southern Burma earns the military
regime hundreds of millions of dollars every year. The protest is being
launched to get Total Oil out of Burma", said a campaign statement.

In cooperation with Burmese Junta, South Korea's Daewoo, along with
India's Oil and Natural Gas Corporation Videsh Ltd. (ONGC), is exploring
gas fields off the coast of Arakan State in Western Burma.

Aung San Suu Kyi, Nobel Peace Prize winner and leader of Burma’s democracy
movement, has repeatedly called on companies like Total to leave Burma.

Burma Campaigners, Burma Centrum Nederland (BCN) and Young Socialists have
invited Burma Pro-Democracy movement activists in Netherlands and people
in Europe to participate in the demonstration.

_____________________________________
OPINION / OTHER

August 25, Irrawaddy
Wishful-thinking in Rangoon - Aung Zaw

The recent news of a coup in Burma turned out to be untrue. It seems to
have been merely wishful-thinking, perhaps invented by some dissident
Burmese living outside the country. But the question is: Would a military
coup actually bring positive change in Burma? The answer is no.

Nevertheless, rumor of a coup or power struggle among top leaders should
not be treated lightly. Last year, before prime minister and chief of
secret police Gen Khin Nyunt was removed there was strong speculation
among both Burmese in the country and Burma-watchers that the prime
minister would soon be purged. The rumor was right.

It is no secret that the current military leaders do not trust each
other–and in the last 18 years, the country has seen many jolting purges
as powerful generals and ministers have been forced to retire, or have
disappeared from public view over night.

Today, just five powerful generals run the Burmese Government. They are
Sen-Gen Than Shwe, Deputy Sen-Gen Maung Aye, Gen Thura Shwe Mann, Prime
Minister Gen Soe Win and Gen Thein Sein, Secretary One of the ruling
junta, the State Peace and Development Council.

There is no doubt that Than Shwe calls the shots and he remains the most
powerful general. The rest are junior military leaders who are seen as his
puppets—except Maung Aye, who is also army commander and deputy commander
in chief of defense services. Than Shwe, who is chairman of the SPDC,
still holds the most important position in the Tatmadaw (armed forces) as
its commander-in-chief. It is unlikely that other top brass dare to
question his authority.

Though the recent rumor suggested Maung Aye and other top leaders had
removed Than Shwe, it is still unlikely Maung Aye—number two man in the
junta—would dare to make such a move. Remember, Than Shwe used to work for
the military’s psychological warfare department, and is dubbed a “secret
mover.” He has masterminded many purges in the past, including that of his
former boss Gen Ne Win, who spent his last days as a prisoner in his own
house. So if someone has plans to remove Than Shwe, he had better think
and act quickly. Or think twice.

There is little indication that Than Shwe intends giving up his throne. He
seems content with his development projects in the country and strongly
believes his government is going in the right direction. Worse still,
reliable sources suggest that when he makes decisions on national affairs,
he relies on his astrologer’s advice.

It does seem doubtful that one day Maung Aye might move against Than Shwe

This is a bad news for the country. Although he is not running day-to-day
affairs, he still makes all major decisions. For instance, a bizarre plan
to relocate the war office and government ministries (even the whole
capital) to Pyinmana, central Burma, is based on advice from his
trustworthy astrologer, Burmese sources said. He was told Rangoon is in
danger of collapse, or could face a seaborne invasion.

This clearly means Burma in effect is ruled by an absolute monarch who is
paranoid and makes decisions based on his emotions.

To be sure, there are high-ranking government officials who quietly
express unhappiness with the way Than Shwe has been handling the
government and the country’s affairs.

Diplomatic sources in Rangoon say that even government ministers are
shaking their heads as they realize the country is going in the wrong
direction, and is more unpopular now than it has been for many years.

Is it because of Than Shwe? Perhaps. But it does not mean that Maung Aye
and other generals are Burma’s future hope.

One senior western diplomat says: “He [Maung Aye] cannot distinguish
between international organizations and UN agencies. He thinks they are
all bad and want to destabilize the government.” But on the other hand, he
is regarded as a professional soldier who wants to keep the army away from
politics.

This is all just speculation, though it does seem doubtful that one day
Maung Aye might move against Than Shwe.

Burma’s generals are known to be narrow-minded and rigid, with little
public exposure. There is no general known to be progressive-minded and
with the vision to steer the country in the right direction.

Ironically, coup rumors may even remind generals that they need to stick
together. Some desperate Burmese, including dissidents at home and abroad,
may cling to the hope some army leaders may be fed up with the current
situation and try to remove Than Shwe.

However, any hopes that there are some in the military leadership
enlightened enough to want to guide the country in the right direction and
return power to the people remain just that: hopes—and pipe dreams.

____________________________________
INTERVIEW

August 24, Radio Free Asia
Burmese opposition leaders angry about exclusion from top-secret meeting
in United Kingdom

 (Unofficial translation)

RFA: Dear listeners. RFA learned that a meeting to discuss about the
situation of Burma is going to be held in United Kingdom soon, as directed
by the British Prime Minister Tony Blair. Tony Blair has directed (his
Foreign and Commonwealth Office- FCO) to hold the seminars to review the
situation of the countries at risk of instability and to brainstorm how to
respond effectively to the negative impact from that countries. Burma is
on the top of the list and therefore, the Wilton Park conference is to be
held to discuss Burma. This meeting will be held on September 4-6, 2005
and British Foreign Service officials, experts on Burma, the
representatives from international organizations and some Burmese
activists living inside and outside the country will be participating.
But, this meeting will be a close door meeting with limited numbers of
participants. In this meeting, the participants will discuss how to solve
the problems in Burma and whether current policy of punishment and
sanctions are effective or not. Providing humanitarian assistance to Burma
will also be a major issue, an invited person told RFA on the condition of
anonymity. RFA also learned that major political forces inside Burma are
not included in the list of invitees.

Dear listeners. In this regards, RFA's member U Min Zin reported as follows.

Min Zin: Although the Burmese democracy activists inside and outside the
country welcome in principal on the initiative of Prime Minister Tony
Blair to hold a meeting to brainstorm better solution for Burma, they are
also concerning about who will represent Burma's democracy movement in the
meeting.

NLD said that they didn't know about this meeting specifically in advance.
But, a source closed to the British FCO said that British Government
official Michael Rider has visited Burma and met and consulted with
important political organizations about the Wilton Park Conference. I
asked U Lwin**, spokesperson of the NLD about this.

Min Zin: We heard that British government official Michael Rider came to
Burma and met with the NLD. In this regard,

U Lwin: Yes, it was. He told us that he was assigned by the Prime Minister
and Foreign Secretary to come and meet with us. But he didn't tell us what
would be going on. He just said that Prime Minister has intention to do
something for Burma and continue to do so in the future. That's all he
said. He didn't say anything in detail.

Min Zin: Have he said anything about the Wilton Park Conference?

U Lwin: No. If he wished, he could say since then who would be invited.
But, he didn't say anything about that. We didn't know about that meeting.
The meeting time did not last long. He just said in general, who he
represented and what position he held. He didn't say anything about the
Conference you asked now specifically. We learned about it just recently.

We were told by a secretary from the British Embassy about that conference
and the names of the people invited, just verbally, not in writing. Among
the names we heard, we know some of them. We were also told about the
subjects to be discussed in that conference roughly. But, we were not told
who would be major sponsor and who would be carried with the outcome. As
far as I know, this is not practical, nor natural. We don't know many of
the invitees. We know some names; but we never heard some of them. If the
British government thinks that it can work out with those who have no
political background of past and present, we can't say anything. That will
be their responsibility.

Min Zin: If so, he never asked an opinion of the NLD to present at the
meeting?

U Lwin: No. He never asked our opinion. I was not alone. We, three NLD
leaders, including Chairman U Aung Shwe and CEC U Nyunt Wai, were at the
meeting with this official.

Min Zin: That is what U Lwin, NLD Spokesperson explained to the RFA. If
the NLD was not consulted and invited to the meeting, what about the
ethnic national leaders? Were they invited or consulted? I asked U Pu Cin
Shing Thang***, a prominent ethnic national leader and a member of CRPP
(Committee Representing the People Parliament). He answered as follows.

U Pu Cin Shing Thang: So far, we didn't know yet. We didn't hear anything
about that conference among the CRPP members and ethnic national leaders.

Min Zin: What we heard was that British government official Michael Rider
came to Rangoon and met with the persons whom he assumed appropriate to
meet. Did he meet with ethnic leaders and CRPP members? Did ethnic leaders
know about his visit to Burma? Have you had a chance to meet with him?

U Pu Cin Shing Thang: We didn't know anything at all. I never heard of the
name of Michael Rider. We were never invited to meet with him as well.

Min Zin: We knew that some people from Burma were invited to attend this
conference. Now, we learned that ethnic leaders and the NLD are not
invited until today, what do you think about the situation of that
meeting?

U Pu Cin Shing Thang: What I think is, when they invited the people from
Burma, they should invite the people who can really represent the people
of Burma. This is very important. I heard that NLD was not invited as
well. We, all ethnic leaders are also not even informed, so do the CRPP
members. Therefore, convening such a meeting without people
representatives will be meaningless, I assume.

Min Zin: Yes, in principle, what do think about having that kind of
meeting to discuss about Burma? Please review.

U Pu Cin Shing Thang: Principally, it will be a good idea to have a
meeting like that. But, it is wrong that they are going to hold a meeting
about Burma with the people whom they like and whom they have close
relationship and they excluded the people who really represent the people
of Burma. We don't think people whom they picked can really present the
current situation in Burma correctly in the meeting. And I am afraid that
there will not be reliable outcome.

Min Zin: Let's say, they will argue that you guys can't make a trip to
England even you guys are invited. What will you say?

U Pu Cin Shing Thang: If they invite us, we will try and if there is
obstacle to make the trip, then it will be more obvious to the world how
we are restricted in the country. And whether we can be able to make a
trip or not is not current issue. Now, we are not even included in the
list of invitees.

Min Zin: Yes, we understand that they didn't invite you for participation
in the meeting. Did they ask your suggestion or opinion?

U Pu Cin Shing Thang: If they thought about our difficulty to make a trip
and asked us to present our opinion, we would be happy to take it.
Therefore, I really mean that consultation and discussion with the
people's representatives are very important.

Min Zin: That's was what U Pu Cin Shing Thang explained. RFA tried to
contact the invitees inside and outside Burma. But, due to the fact that
this Wilton Park Conference is a secret meeting and they all have to obey
the Chelton House Rule, which is a restriction not to expose anything
about the meeting, they denied answering.

RFA: It was a presentation of RFA member U Min Zin about the Wilton Park
Conference. RFA also contacted the British Foreign and Commonwealth Office
several times about this meeting, but no one responded yet.

================
(Interpreter's Note:

**U Lwin is Secretary of the National League for Democracy and official
Spokesperson. He is an elected Member of Parliament from Thongwa Township
Constituency, Rangoon Division.

***U Pu Cin Shing Thang is elected MP from Tiddim Township Constituency in
Chin State. He is also a leader of Zomi National Congress party and United
Nationalities Alliance, a coalition of ethnic political parties that won
seats in the 1990 general election.)