BurmaNet News, October 12, 2005

[Editor]

October 12, 2005 Issue # 2821

INSIDE BURMA
Irrawaddy: Internet censorship in Burma worsening
Mizzima News: Burma introduces SMS service
DVB: Aye Myint innocent, testify Burmese authorities
DVB: Burmese university and college tutors pressured not to give private
classes

ON THE BORDER
Daily Telegraph: Elephants hurt after stepping on landmines

HEALTH / AIDS
Reuters: Myanmar -- the world's bird flu black hole?

REGIONAL
AP: U.N. envoy rejects Myanmar's claim that moving faster toward democracy
might bring chaos

INTERNATIONAL
Irrawaddy: British official completes fact-finding mission to Rangoon
Deutsche Presse-Agentur: E.U. and Thailand vow closer cooperation, joint
development actions
Time Asia: Charm Tong, Educating Burma

OPINION / OTHER
Irrawaddy: Does a reshuffle mean anything at all for Burma?

ANALYSIS
Bangkok Post: Rangoon's generals prepare for the changing of the guard

____________________________________
INSIDE BURMA

October 12, Irrawaddy
Internet censorship in Burma worsening - Clive Parker and Khun Sam

A new report on internet censorship in Burma says the ruling military
junta is becoming more sophisticated in censoring online material after
the recent introduction of a new firewall, allegedly supplied by US-based
company Fortinet.

“Internet Filtering in Burma in 2005: A Country Study” by the Open Net
Initiative —a collaboration between Harvard University, the University of
Toronto and Cambridge University—tested access to a range of websites in
Burma and found 84 percent of sites “with content known to be sensitive to
the Burmese state” to be blocked. The blocked sites include The
Irrawaddy’s homepage, as well as 85 percent of web-based email sites.

The report notes that Burma “implements one of the world’s most
restrictive regimes of internet control” and suggests internet-based email
sites, such as Hotmail and Yahoo, are barred because they allow an avenue
for freedom of expression which cannot be monitored by the state. Burma
has only two internet service providers—Myanmar Posts and
Telecommunications and Bagan Cybertech—both of which charge for email
accounts. Free email sites would therefore be considered a threat to both
organizations’ ability to generate revenue.

MPT is directly controlled by the military, while Bagan Cybertech is
rumored to have come under the increasing influence of the junta following
the arrest of managing director Ye Naing Win—the son of ousted former
prime minister Khin Nyunt—on a series of charges including economic
crimes.

ONI’s study also found 65 percent of pornographic web pages to be
prohibited in Burma as well as 24 percent of gambling sites, although it
suggests the Burmese government’s “primary motivations for censorship
appear to be political as opposed to moral or cultural.”

The main concern for internet users in Burma, according to the report, is
the use of new filtering software which allows the junta to produce a more
complete filtering system. “Burma’s system of internet control shows no
signs of lessening” the report says, “and may worsen as it moves to a more
sophisticated software product.”

This statement was backed up by internet users in Rangoon today, one of
whom told The Irrawaddy “It’s becoming more strict—there are more bans on
websites
 the internet lacks much more freedom than before.”

ONI’s findings that Burma is further restricting its online services are
based mainly on the alleged recent introduction of a new firewall provided
by California-based Fortinet, a claim denied by the company.

However, junta-backed daily newspaper The New Light of Myanmar published
an article in May last year—“Prime Minister Attends Ceremony to Introduce
Fortinet Antivirus Firewall”—in which it claimed the Rangoon-based Myanmar
Millennium Group had been designated the sole representative of Fortinet
in Burma. The article also featured a photograph of Fortinet sales
director Benjamin Teh, of the company’s Malaysian office, shaking hands
with Burma’s former prime minister Gen Khin Nyunt.

Teh today denied that Fortinet has any involvement in Burma and refused to
confirm or deny whether he visited Rangoon last year. “We don’t have any
direct resellers and we don’t have any direct partners in Myanmar
[Burma],” he said, refusing to comment further.

The ONI report includes comments from Fortinet director of worldwide
public relations, Michelle Spolver, saying “Fortinet employs a two-tier
sales model, in which we sell 100 percent of our products to resellers,
who then sell to end-users. We do not directly sell, deploy or configure
our products for end-users. Additionally, we have no record in our
databases of Myanmar Millennium Group being a Fortinet reseller.”

Speaking to The New York Times in an article published today, Spolver said
“Our [Fortinet’s] intent is to fully comply with the law, and Fortinet
does not condone doing business with US-embargoed or sanctioned
countries.”

____________________________________

October 5, Mizzima News
Burma introduces SMS service

Short Message Services or SMS are now available to GSM mobile phone users
in Burma.

Sending a text message will cost Ks. 25 with no additional set up costs or
annual fees.

The service is provided by Myanmar Post and Telecommunications, which has
an information line for GSM users interested in the service on telephone
number 104.

When the service was introduced on October 2, most GSM users were busy
experimenting with the new service on their handsets.

By the end of the day, most were using the service, which only allows text
messaging.

 "We have to watch out how secured the service is," an observer said,
adding that the cost of an SMS was lower than that of a call.

All SMS sent will pass through a GSM Service Centre at +9595910003. It is
also possible for GSM users to send messages overseas.

____________________________________

October 11, Democratic Voice of Burma
Aye Myint innocent, testify Burmese authorities

Prominent lawyer Aye Myint from Pegu in central Burma who has been
detained for allegedly supplying the International Labour Organisation
(ILO) with false information, was taken to nearby Daik-U Township court
for trial on 10 October.

Unusually, even members of local authorities and Union Solidarity and
Development Association (USDA) who usually stand on the side of the
authorities, testified as witnesses that Aye Myint is innocent of the
charges and that he was arrested unlawfully.

The assistant commander of Daik-U Township police force Win Tin Oo
arrested and charged Aye Myint with Emergency Provision Act 5C.

According to Aye Myint’s lawyer San Aung, Win Tin Oo accused Aye Myint of
forcing the farmers from Phaungdawthi Village to write a false report to
the ILO on 6 May 2005. “But they (the witnesses) did not support the
accusation that the farmers were satisfied but Aye Myint told them not to
be so. The farmers were not feeling satisfied and they are not still
feeling satisfied now.”

The case started when the township authority, the army, army veteran
organisations and army supply corps confiscated 492 acres of the farmers’
lands and gave them back only 123 acres. The farmers reported the incident
to Rangoon-based ILO official Richard Horsey through the help of Aye Myint
who acted as their legal representative.

Horsey told DVB that he has been discussing the matter with Burmese
authorities concerned and that his organisation is doing its best but
could not reveal details to the media as the case is not finished yet.

____________________________________

October 10, Democratic Voice of Burma
Burmese university and college tutors pressured not to give private classes

The Education Ministry of Burma’s military junta, State Peace and
Development Council (SPDC) has been pressurising college and university
tutors and lecturers to sign a pledge to the effect that they will not
give private tuition classes to students.

The action of the authorities causes difficulties and dilemmas for both
the tutors and their students, as low-paid tutors are finding it hard to
survive without extra incomes from giving private classes to counter ever
rising commodity price, and correspondent course students in particular
are left helpless as they have to depend on the tutors for pre exam
lectures.

“I don’t know with what purpose they forced us to sign the pledge. Maybe
they don’t want us to give tuition classes,” a tutor from Rangoon
University told DVB. “But the pledge doesn’t say what kind of action will
be taken against us if we did.” She added that the students only have ten
days of intensive preparatory tuition classes before they take their
exams.

“The authorities from above should make sure that the students understand
their lessons and everything is OK for them. As for us tutors, we are
giving tuition classes because the salaries given from above are not
enough for us to survive on and we have to solve our economic difficulties
by teaching outside.”

____________________________________
ON THE BORDER

October 12, The Daily Telegraph
Elephants hurt after stepping on landmines - Sebastien Berger

Bangkok: Two Thai elephants were being treated in a specialist hospital
yesterday after stepping on landmines in Burma.

Mojay, six, and Motoo, two, had been taken into neighbouring Burma with
their mother, Lamu, so the older animals could haul logs. The sisters were
feeding when they set off two landmines, said Soraida Salwala, of Friends
of the Asian Elephant. They suffered severe injuries to their feet.

"They are hurt very badly," she said, adding that she was worried that
Motoo would contract septicaemia, which can kill an elephant in 72 hours.

"The elephants are comforting each other," she said. "The elder touches
the youngest one with her trunk when she cries. It is heart-rending."

The incident, about two and a half miles into Burma's Karen state,
happened last week but the elephants reached the hospital in Lampang,
northern Thailand, only yesterday.

While elephant victims are rare, hundreds of people are killed or injured
by mines in Burma every year.

____________________________________
HEALTH / AIDS

October 9, Reuters
Myanmar -- the world's bird flu black hole? - Ed Cropley

Bangkok: With big chunks of its territory in rebel hands and a military
government shrouded in riddles, mystery and enigma, Myanmar presents the
global fight against bird flu with a unique set of problems.

Officially, the H5N1 avian influenza strain that has killed millions of
birds and scores of people across Asia since late 2003 has not landed in
the former Burma, even though neighbouring China, Thailand and Laos have
all had outbreaks.

However, given the dearth of reliable information that comes out of
Yangon, as well as the junta's dubious track record with the truth, many
international observers are worried about a cover-up of potentially global
significance.

The fear is that the virus will infect birds in Myanmar then -- either
through a cover-up or a lack of monitoring in remote or rebel-run areas --
will remain undetected for long enough to mutate, "go human" and unleash a
killer flu pandemic on the world.

"Would they admit to it if it was here? That's the big question, since
they deny everything left, right and center," said one Yangon-based
diplomat.

Another said some of the ruling generals appeared to have grasped the
seriousness of the threat, but given the dire lack of infrastructure --
annual health spending amounts to a few dollars per person -- doubted
whether anything could or would be done.

"I think there's an assumption that if it isn't already, then it will be a
problem here, but you're lacking capacity and you're lacking will," the
second diplomat said.

Myanmar is spurned by most of the international community due to its human
rights record and detention of democracy icon Aung San Suu Kyi, but where
bird flu is concerned, sanctions, isolation and strong rhetoric are in
nobody's interest.

Bringing that problem into focus is this week's "front line" bird flu trip
by U.S. Health Secretary Michael Leavitt, who is going to Thailand,
Cambodia, Laos and Vietnam -- but not Myanmar, which Washington has
branded an "outpost of tyranny."

DRAFT PLANS

Officials at the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) treat Myanmar's
assurances it has never had bird flu with a degree of skepticism,
especially since it is situated on the path of migratory birds which could
be spreading the virus.

"If you consider the flight paths, and the fact the disease is spreading
westwards, infection in Myanmar may be likely now or in the future," an
FAO spokesman in Bangkok told Reuters.

However, they are loath to accuse the junta of lying, noting among other
things that after the Indian Ocean tsunami, Myanmar announced a death toll
only in double figures -- an estimate derided at the time but which later
turned out to be accurate.

On the ground, the FAO says cooperation with government veterinary
officials is good, and that bird flu reports from overseas dissident
groups are in all likelihood Newcastle disease, a bird illness which poses
no major risk to humans.

"I trust them," said Tang Zhengping, the FAO's representative in Yangon.

Under FAO auspices, Myanmar has been able to test samples for bird flu
since April by sending them to Australia for analysis, although Tang said
none had been sent either there or elsewhere.

No human or animal testing is available inside the country.

International health experts say the Health Ministry has drawn up a draft
bird flu management strategy, including plans to educate Myanmar's 45
million people about it, as well as disease surveillance and victim
treatment plans.

It has even identified special "bird flu hospitals," including one at an
infectious diseases center near Yangon which is equipped with isolation
wards, said one expert, admitting nevertheless that much concrete action
needed to be taken.

"Developing a national plan is already a big step. If the government is
building a plan, I see that as a sign of political will," the expert said.

"But obviously, the Minister of Health will need resources in case
something happens. Whether he will get those resources -- that's another
story."

Even though years of mismanagement have crippled the economy, the expert
said Myanmar still had a relatively large number of overseas-qualified
doctors, unlike other impoverished nations in the bird flu firing line
such as Cambodia.

Health experts said they also expected open cooperation in the event of a
human outbreak, since that was the only way to get access to regional
stockpiles of treatments such as Tamiflu.

____________________________________
REGIONAL

October 12, Associated Press
U.N. envoy rejects Myanmar's claim that moving faster toward democracy
might bring chaos

Kuala Lumpur: The U.N. special envoy to Myanmar on Wednesday rejected
claims by the ruling junta that speeding up democratic reforms could throw
the country into Iraq-like disarray.

Razali Ismail, a former Malaysian diplomat, urged Myanmar's military
leaders to move toward national reconciliation "in the soonest possible
time" and release pro-democracy leader Aung San Suu Kyi from house arrest.

"I don't see any parallels between Myanmar and Iraq," Razali told
reporters. "Iraq is a very bad case where unilateralism was allowed to
happen. ... Nobody is talking about taking unilateral action" against
Myanmar.

Earlier this week, Malaysian Foreign Minister Syed Hamid Albar said
Myanmar's top leaders, including junta chairman Gen. Than Shwe, expressed
concerns that bringing democracy could create social instability.

"They want to ensure that the environment is conducive without chaos for
them to introduce democracy," Syed Hamid said Tuesday after a two-day
visit to Myanmar. "They said they want to avoid a situation like Iraq
which is gripped by violence."

Western nations have strongly criticized Myanmar's government for failing
to carry out promised democratic reforms and committing human rights
violations, such as Suu Kyi's detention.

Razali voiced concerns that Suu Kyi is unlikely to be freed anytime soon.

"From all indications, I don't think this (her release) is happening," he
said.

Razali urged the junta to let the United Nations "be engaged with Myanmar
the way we have been engaged before," noting that he hasn't been allowed
to visit Myanmar to jump-start democratic reforms since March 2004.

The U.N. will hold discussions with the 10-member Association of Southeast
Asian Nations on the current situation in Myanmar, Razali said, stressing
that other Asian countries such as China and India should also try to
encourage Myanmar's return to democracy.

Myanmar's current junta came to power in 1988 after crushing a
pro-democracy uprising. It refused to hand over power to Suu Kyi's party
after its landslide election victory in 1990. Suu Kyi has spent 10 of the
last 16 years in detention. Her latest detention started in May 2003.

____________________________________
INTERNATIONAL

October 12, Irrawaddy
British official completes fact-finding mission to Rangoon - Clive Parker

British Foreign and Commonwealth Office official Michael Ryder was due
back in London today after completing his second fact-finding mission to
Rangoon in four months.

The visit was used to collect information as part of the British
government’s recent “Countries at Risk of Instability” initiative, whereby
Ryder will submit a report before the end of the year which will be used
to formulate British policy on Burma.

“In June he was just getting started when he visited. Now he has had a
chance to gather his thoughts, chair the Wilton Park meeting, etc. He
thought it would be useful to come back and brainstorm in more detail with
a wide variety of Burmese stakeholders, which he duly has,” another
British official told The Irrawaddy.

The five-day visit saw Ryder meet with Minister for Agriculture and
Irrigation Maj-Gen Htay Oo and Minister of Cooperatives Col Zaw Min at the
Union Solidarity and Development Association headquarters on Monday. Both
ministers are high-ranking members of the USDA. The briefing—which was
also attended by the British Ambassador to Burma Vicky Bowman—was part of
a series held with members of Rangoon’s international community in recent
weeks in which the USDA has highlighted its “achievements” in rural and
social development. Ryder is known to have raised queries with the
organization, but his mandate means he is unavailable to answer media
questions on his work.

The British official also met with representatives of Burma’s Ministry of
Foreign Affairs as well as UN, US, EU and Asian officials. He did not see
any of the junta’s highest-ranking members, another British official
confirmed.

This week’s visit to Rangoon is the second by Ryder following a trip in
June in which he held talks with the main opposition party the National
League for Democracy ahead of last month’s Wilton Park retreat in southern
England.

Ryder’s mandate will end “probably by the end of November”—another British
official said—when he is scheduled to submit a report on Burma’s situation
to government ministers in London

It is expected that British Prime Minister Tony Blair will also receive a
copy of the document since the initiative is run by the PM’s Strategy
Unit, although this could not be confirmed.

The British government’s manual for the “Countries at Risk of Instability”
initiative states that once a country report has been submitted, the
appropriate ministers will then begin the “implementation stage” of policy
for the country in question.

Asked what this would likely mean in Burma’s case, a British official
commented: “That will depend on what recommendations the report makes, and
what our ministers decide.”

____________________________________

October 12, Deutsche Presse-Agentur
E.U. and Thailand vow closer cooperation, joint development actions

Brussels: Thailand and the European Union are close to agreeing a new
cooperation pact for expanded political and economic ties, European
Commission chief Jose Manuel Barroso said Wednesday.

"We have finalised negotiations for a new chapter in our relations,"
Barroso told reporters at a joint press briefing with Thai Prime Minister
Thaksin Shinawatra.

"This will lay a solid foundation for expanded relations," Barroso said.

Thaksin, who is currently on a tour of several European capitals, said
both sides were making progress in negotiating the partnership deal, the
first bilateral agreement that the E.U. will sign with a member of the
Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN).

The E.U.'s political, trade and aid dealings with countries in south-east
Asia have so far been based on a region-to-region pact with ASEAN.

But the agreement, signed in the 1980s, is now seen as out of date.
Efforts to renegotiate the deal, however, have run into human rights
problems linked to Myanmar's membership of ASEAN.

Barroso said the E.U. believed Thailand had an important role to play in
south-east Asia and was ready to undertake joint development actions with
Bangkok.

Such "trilateral cooperation" will allow the E.U. and Thailand to pool
their resources and expertise for development actions in other countries.

Barroso also welcomed Thaksin's offer to provide know-how on tackling bird
flu. Thailand has been badly hit by the virus but E.U. officials say
poultry in the 25-nation bloc has so far not been infected.

"The commission stands ready to work with the Thais," said a commission
spokesman.

____________________________________

October 3 (Issue dated October 10), Time Asia
Charm Tong, Educating Burma – Andrew Marshall

How's this for an intimidating experience? You're about to address a
200-strong meeting of the U.N. Commission on Human Rights in Geneva. Your
topic is the long-standing campaign of terror by Burma's military regime
against unarmed civilians in Shan state, the childhood home you fled. Your
audience includes members of that same military regime. Also, you're 17
years old.

"My voice was shaking," says Charm Tong, now 24, and already a seasoned
and celebrated campaigner for Shan state's embattled people. "But I
thought, 'You have to do this. You don't get so many opportunities to tell
the world.'" So she made an impassioned speech—the presence of Burmese
officials only emboldening her. "They were forced to listen to what I had
to say," she says. Three years later, aged 20, Charm Tong set up a unique
school for young Shan in northern Thailand, which is now training a new
generation of human rights activists. She is also a founding member of the
widely respected Shan Women's Action Network (SWAN), whose meticulous
reports have documented the rape of hundreds of women and girls by Burmese
soldiers.

Charm Tong's political education started early. She was born in Burma's
central Shan state, home to the country's biggest ethnic minority, and
where killings and mass relocations of civilians were—and still
are—shockingly common. Charm Tong was about six when her parents sent her
to a Catholic orphanage on the Thai-Burma border, where she was brought up
with 30 other children by a Shan nun. She saw her parents once a year. "I
cried a lot," she remembers. "I was young and didn't understand why my
parents had sent me away. Now I appreciate it. They thought I'd be safe
and get an education."

She was a voracious learner. Charm Tong rose just after dawn for English
lessons, attended Thai high school during the day, and took Chinese
classes in the evenings. Weekends were reserved for studying her mother
tongue, Shan. She was also schooled in the suffering of refugees who
poured across the nearby border into Thailand to escape persecution or
poverty. Unlike Burma's other ethnic minorities, the Shan have no refugee
status in Thailand, and therefore no official protection or support. Many
risk arrest and ill-treatment as illegal manual laborers, while women are
often trafficked into the sex industry.

At age 16, Charm Tong began working with human rights groups, interviewing
sex workers, illegal migrants, HIV patients and rape victims. The
following year, she spoke in Geneva on their behalf—and still speaks, in
four languages, with the poise and confidence of a mature woman.

In 2001 she set up the School for Shan State Nationalities Youth. Mostly
funded by private donations, the school is located in a modest rented
house in northern Thailand. Not only Shan students attend, but also
Burma's other ethnic minorities, such as the Palaung, Akha and Pa-O. Due
to the Shan's shadowy legal status, the school's exact location is secret.
The young students, who sleep on the floor in spartan dorms, cannot leave
the grounds unescorted during their nine-month term. "They're all under
house arrest," jokes Charm Tong. Each year more than 150 young people
apply; the school can accommodate only 24.

Survival comes first for many Shan, says Charm Tong, learning only a
distant second. Even outside the conflict zones, Burma's education system
is a shambles; untutored, even the brightest youths end up in menial jobs.
"I was very lucky to get nine years' education," says Charm Tong, whose
school is an attempt to rescue some of Burma's so-called "lost
generation." Students study English and computing, and receive training in
human rights action, such as how to collect testimonies and write reports,
from Charm Tong and other local activists. Most of the school's 90 or so
graduates now work for youth or women's organizations as teachers, human
rights defenders, health workers and community radio broadcasters. "The
idea is that they use their education to promote other people's rights,"
says Charm Tong.

When not at the school, Charm Tong lends her energy to SWAN, a small but
vocal women's group whose "License To Rape" report enraged the junta.
"Rape is still widespread and very systematic," says Charm Tong, who
co-authored the report. "It's used to terrorize communities." Burma's
generals, who dismissed the report as "fabrications," regard SWAN as an
enemy of the state. Charm Tong is unfazed. "The generals are the enemy of
the people," she shrugs.

So who are her own heroes? Her father, who died last year, was a commander
with the Shan State Army, an insurgent group still battling Burmese
government troops. Her heroine is "Teacher Mary," the Catholic nun who
raised and educated her, and who gave her the strength and self-esteem she
now imparts to her own students. Charm Tong is like "a candle in the
darkness," says May, 19, a girl from Burma's northerly Kachin state. "She
never behaves like she's superior or better. She is like our sister, and
the school is our family."

____________________________________
OPINION / OTHER

October 12, The Irrawaddy
Does a reshuffle mean anything at all for Burma?

For weeks, rumors have circulated among dissident communities in exile and
Burma watchers in Rangoon about a major government reshuffle. These rumors
include speculation on the health of Snr-Gen Than Shwe, an ongoing power
struggle between Than Shwe and Deputy Snr-Gen Maung Aye and possible
shifts of military commanders in strategic positions, including Rangoon
Division.

Looking back at Burma's recent history and the various purges in Burma's
armed forces, it is safe to say that we cannot entirely discount rumors.

Some observers even speculate that Than Shwe may retire soon and Gen Shwe
Mann, third in the line of expected succession, will become the new head
of Burma’s ruling council. Shwe Mann joined the War Office several years
ago and is now attached to the Ministry of Defence. It is believed that
the duo—Than Shwe and Maung Aye—are grooming him to take control of the
armed forces in the future. It has not happened yet, and it is unlikely to
happen any time soon. Military tradition holds that junior officers cannot
advance without the blessing of their seniors. Such blessings do not seem
to be forthcoming.

It hardly seems credible that Than Shwe would leave his throne while Burma
is engaged in a constitutional drafting process which will be resumed in
the next few months. The regime also faces increasing international
pressure, including the threat of UN Security Council action. The generals
cannot afford to show any weakness or disunity. Considering all the
speculations and wild rumors, it won't be surprising to see some cosmetic
changes in the government or armed forces. If you are waiting for some
dramatic changes, however, you are fooling yourself.

Some observers claim that Than Shwe—now 72—is unwell and wants to leave
his position. Such speculations usually prove untrue, as the most vicious
dictators seem to have formidable constitutions.

Even if Shwe Mann has been tapped to succeed Than Shwe, such a move would
take time. Don’t forget about Maung Aye, the man widely believed to be the
mastermind of former prime minister and spy chief Gen Khin Nyunt’s ouster
last October. He is unlikely to let an opportunity to consolidate his
power slip past so easily.

More interesting than rumors about Shwe Mann is the possibility that
Burma’s two most powerful generals may be at loggerheads. Such discord
could soon produce a reshuffling in the military as both men seek to align
their supporters in positions of power.

Many observers are wondering who will be named regional commander for
Rangoon, a position of considerable importance, after the Tatmadaw’s
quarterly meeting that began this week. The post is currently held by
Maj-Gen Myint Swe, who is also in charge of Burma’s intelligence units.

Myint Swe is undoubtedly Than Shwe’s puppet. Observers wonder, however,
whether his removal—and the installation of one of Maung Aye’s
loyalists—might indicate that the junta’s second in command might have the
upper hand. The generals are sure to make careful and calculated decisions
about their respective futures.

Behind these swirling speculations stands the truth that the generals are
firmly in control of Burma. Whichever one assumes the mantle of ultimate
power, the country’s future will remain bleak. The generals are
well-versed in the politics of totalitarian leadership, and they are
always eager to demonstrate their skill with weapons of war—especially
when used against their own people. But they have no idea how to run a
country.

____________________________________
ANALYSIS

October 12, Bangkok Post
Rangoon's generals prepare for the changing of the guard – Larry Jagan

Burma's top military leaders are planning a massive shake-up in the army
and government. The major changes are expected to emerge at the end of the
quarterly meeting of the country's governing State Peace and Development
Council or SPDC. The top military ruler, General Than Shwe, is also
expected to stand down as the junta leaders pass power to the next
generation of
generals. The country's top 12 generals are currently meeting in Rangoon
to discuss their plans and strategy for the future. The meeting comes at a
particularly crucial time for the military as the National Convention
prepares to complete the draft of the new constitution before the end of
the
year. It is likely to be put to a referendum, with fresh elections being
held within the next 12 months.

The planned changes are the most dramatic since the army seized power 17
years ago. The top general is reportedly planning to give up at least one
of the three key posts he holds as chairman of the SPDC, supreme commander
of the army, and defence minister.

``We expect Than Shwe to relinquish his position as defence minister in
the forthcoming reshuffle,'' said a senior Southeast Asian diplomat who
has regular contact with the Burmese regime. Gen Than Shwe recently told
the visiting Thai army's supreme commander, General Chaisit Shinawatra,
that he would retire soon and that General Thura Shwe Mann would take over
as the country's leader in due course.

There are increasing doubts about the senior general's health. Six months
ago he had a very mild stroke, but has recovered from that. Dr Kyaw Myint,
the health minister and Gen Than Shwe's personal physician, visits him
every day to monitor his medical condition, according to family friends. A
Singaporean doctor also recently visited Rangoon to attend to him,
according to Burmese military sources.

Time appears to be catching up with the 75-year-old general, say diplomats
who have recently met the Burmese leader. Gen Than Shwe is known to suffer
from hypertension and is a diabetic. ``He's subject to frequent diabetic
rages when his sugar levels get out of control,'' a Burmese army doctor
said. But many Burmese analysts believe much of the old man's
deteriorating
health is largely a psychological illness, the result of a depression
caused by the increasing public revelations of his wife and children's
rabid corruption.

He was particularly shocked when, during his trial for corruption, the
former agriculture minister, Nyunt Tin, disclosed that he had presented
Gen Than Shwe's wife and their daughter with five diamonds, each worth
US$1.5 million. ``He was so shocked by these corruption revelations and
the extent of his daughter's business dealings that he took to his bed
with depression for days,'' a Burmese source said.

This may have prompted the senior general to withdraw from the public eye
and take a back seat for the time being. Although he may even retire as
the SPDC chairman, he is unlikely to give up the post of supreme commander
of the army. ``Even if Than Shwe officially retires he will not give up
his power. Instead he'll remain the grey eminence behind the throne, along
the lines of the Chinese leader Deng Xiaoping in the years before his
death,'' said Burmese analyst Win Min, based in Chiang Mai.

Gen Thura Shwe Mann is tipped to replace Gen Maung Aye as the army's
commander-in-chief, paving the way for him to take the reigns of power
sometime next year. And Gen Maung Aye may well become the SPDC chairman.

There is no doubt that at present Gen Than Shwe is taking a back seat. 
``Than Shwe has withdrawn from involvement in the day-to-day government of
the country and Maung Aye has effectively taken over the former prime
minister Khin Nyunt's role of running Burma,'' said a senior Asian
diplomat based in Rangoon.

In recent weeks, it has been Gen Maung Aye who has dominated the front
pages of the government-controlled newspapers, with Gen Than Shwe
increasingly less prominent. ``Maung Aye's mug is everywhere in the
Burmese media a clear sign that he has strengthened his influence and
control within the junta,'' according to a Rangoon-based Western diplomat.

But others believe this is only a ploy by the senior general until he is
ready to resume his central role and become the country's first president
under the new constitution that is expected to be adopted early next year.
``Than Shwe is only giving Maung Aye enough rope to hang himself,'' said a
Southeast Asian diplomat.

``The National Convention will have drawn up a new constitution by the end
of the year and it will be put to a referendum in early 2006,'' said a
senior Chinese diplomat.

And new elections are likely before the end of next year. Beijing believes
Gen Than Shwe will stand down next year and become the civilian president.
``He wants to be president for life,'' a senior military source close to
him said.

Gen Thura Shwe Mann is scheduled to take over as head of the army and
replace Gen Than Shwe as head of the junta, according to a senior Chinese
diplomat.

When that time comes, he will grant a mass amnesty to all political
prisoners, including Aung San Suu Kyi, Khin Nyunt, and the former military
intelligence officers who were sentenced to hundreds of years in prison
for corruption and economic crimes earlier this year, according to Asian
diplomats.

To prepare for these momentous political changes, Burma's top leaders are
planning to hand over control of the military to the next generation of
army officers. Gen Thura Shwe Mann will head the new triumvirate of
military leaders, supported by Prime Minister Gen Soe Win and Secretary
One, Gen Thein Sein.

``This is the new generation of military leaders who are being readied to
take over power,'' according to senior Indian diplomats who deal with
Rangoon. But, they warn, this group of generals lacks the manners and
intelligence of their superiors. ``These men are uncouth, uneducated and
only know how to bark orders,'' said a former Indian diplomat who has been
based in Rangoon previously and knows the new generals well.

This new generation of leaders is likely to be just as preoccupied as
their predecessors with holding on to power. And they are certain to be
unprepared to compromise with either the pro-democracy parties or the
ethnic minorities.