BurmaNet News November 16, 2005

[Editor]

November 16, 2005 Issue # 2846

INSIDE BURMA
DVB: Burmese soldiers, not rebels, opened fire on sports spectators

ON THE BORDER
Kaowao News: Buddhist monks flee Mon State
Network Media Group: Pinheiro meets ethnic leaders and youth
SHAN: Sino-junta talk worries Wa

BUSINESS/TRADE
Narinjara: New regulation concerning Burma-Bangladesh border crossings
Thai Press Reports: Thailand’s electricity provider EGAT to invest with
Myanmar

ASEAN
AFP: Rice chides ASEAN for being soft on Myanmar

INTERNATIONAL
New York Times: Bush, in Japan, suggests that China expand freedoms
Mizzima News: Bush slams Burma in Kyoto speech

OPINION / OTHER
USA Today: A chance for the U.S. — in Burma
Guardian: Onward and inward
Mizzima: Burma: Violence in the making

____________________________________
INSIDE BURMA

November 16, Democratic Voice of Burma
Burmese soldiers, not rebels, opened fire on sports spectators

A Chin human rights group said in a statement that two Burmese soldiers,
not rebels, as claimed by the state-controlled newspaper Myanmar Ahlin,
opened fire on spectators at a footaball (soccer) match in Burma’s
northwest Chin state, killing two people, including a 7-year-old boy, and
wounding six others.

Citing the testimonies of witnesses, the statement said that two Burmese
soldiers from Light Infantry Battalion – 304 fired on the crowd with small
arms on 12 November as awards were presented after the game at the Myoma
sports ground in Matupi.

The statement said that the army gave 100,000 kyat (less than US$ 100) in
compensation to the parents. Among those wounded are said to be Southern
Chin State, No.2, Tactical Command commander Lt-Col San Aung’s wife and
she is being treated at a special military hospital in Maymyo, and other
victims are sent to rundown Matupi, Pakokku and Mandalay hospitals.

Matupi is about 590km (370m) northwest of Rangoon, near the border with
Bangladesh.

____________________________________
ON THE BORDER

November 16, Kaowao News
Buddhist monks flee Mon State

Fearing persecution after being accused of supporting Mon guerilla groups,
15 Buddhist monks from southern Ye Township fled to the Thai-Burma border.

A clash between a Mon guerrilla group and a SPDC local battalion took
place close to a temple on November 8. "The SPDC accused us of supporting
the Mon guerrilla outfit and tried to arrest us on the spot, but we
managed to escape," the monks said.

The monks are from Bop Htaw village which is near a SPDC military base in
the Kao Jear sub town, southern Ye township.

A source in Ye Township said that local Mon people are more likely to
support Mon guerrilla groups because of the high incidence of human rights
abuse by the SPDC junta, which includes the conscription for forced
labour, portering, and confiscation of cultivable land owned by hundreds
of families. Because of confiscation many people are left without land and
are forced to live as internally displaced people.

The villagers have no weapons to counter such attacks, Nai Swoh, a young
political activist from the area told Kaowao shortly after arriving at the
border four days ago.

Big villages such as Ham Gam consist of 14 tracks and villagers must guard
each of the tracks on orders of the Burmese Army. Southern Ye township of
Mon State has about 20 villages where people are forced to guard the area
at night against attacks on SPDC soldiers by rebels.

The Burmese Army has designated the area as a black zone and villagers
have been restricted from visiting their farms since the army launched an
offensive aimed at wiping out the Mon guerrilla outfit.

____________________________________

November 16, Shan Herald News Agency
Sino-junta talk worries Wa

The latest round of negotiations between Kunming and Rangoon authorities
in Mongla on Monday, 14 November, has triggered a wave of panic through
the Wa leadership in the neighboring Panghsang, according to a report
coming in yesterday.

Both sides had agreed to open the Mongla-Daluo border for "official"
cross-border trade, it says. For more than 16 years, this section of the
Sino-Burma border has been the scene of "unofficial" trade and tourism
under the until now undisputed leadership of the National Democratic
Alliance Army – Eastern Shan State (NDAA-ESS) of Sai Leun, one of the
United Wa State Army (UWSA)'s two closest allies. (The other is Kokang
that lies north of the Wa region.)

Accordingly, Rangoon would be bringing in its civilian and military
machines to take over form the present rulers of Mongla, officially
designated as Special Region #4. "Which tantamount to Sai Leun losing his
grip," reads the report. "Which also means the Wa will lose its free
access to the Mekong via Mongla. It will be nicely blockaded on all sides
by the Burma Army."

The report adds that the UWSA is still smarting from the September seizure
of half a ton of heroin by the joint Sino-Burmese operation.
However, it fails to mention how the NDAA-ESS has reacted to this latest
development. The group has, for months, been under heavy pressure to
"exchange arms for peace plus special privileges."
The news coincides with another report from the Thai-Burma border that the
second Friendship Bridge between Maesai and Tachilek will be opened on 30
November. The construction is aimed at facilitating the road linkage
between the three countries: China, Burma and Thailand and increasing the
flow of trade and tourism along the common borders, it says.

____________________________________

November 16, Network Media Group
Pinheiro meets ethnic leaders and youth

The UNSG Special Rapporteur for Human Rights Mr. Paulo Sergio Pinheiro met
ethnic leaders and youth on the Thai-Burma border and made inquiries about
human rights violations in the ethnic and border areas.

He met youth leaders from the Ethnic Youth Forum on Sunday. Separately he
met the KNPP, Karenni Women's Organization, Pa-O Women's Union, Pa-O Youth
Congress and border based women's organizations working for succour and
relief among migrant and refugee women in Mae Sot.

KNPP GS, Khu Rimond Htoo said that they welcomed the first ever visit of
Mr. Pinheiro to look into human rights violations. Pleased with the visit
he helped the special rapporteur see the ground reality to enable him to
table a first hand report on human rights violations at the UNGA meeting.

"All this time they have heard only one-sided propaganda of the regime
therefore they cannot see the ground reality. Now they have a chance to
see the situation for themselves. It will help him in preparing his
report. It will also be fruitful for ethnic people and all democratic
forces," he said.

The special rapporteur asked about the attitude and opinion of KNPP on the
forthcoming National Convention (NC) when he met KNPP Vice-Chairman Abel
Tweed, U Khu Rimond Htoo said. Pa-O Youth Congress Chairman Khun Kaw Wein
said that though he did not disclose his mission statement on the current
visit, he asked him about human rights violations in the last six months
and about the difficulties they face in their areas.

"He wanted to know about human rights violations in the last six months
and the difficulties we face. These are his main concerns," he added.

NY Forum administrator Shwe Myo Thant said that the special rapporteur
asked him about unlawful and forced farmland confiscation in Burma.

"There have been many cases of farmland grabbing in Rakhine State
recently, not only by military units, but also by the civil administrative
bodies. There are similar cases in Mon State too. Moreover there are cases
of human rights violations in Mon State. We gave him details of land
confiscation and cases of human rights violations."

Brazilian legal professional Mr. Pinheiro has been the UNSG Special
Rapporteur for human rights in Burma since 2001. He visited Burma six
times and his last visit was in 2003 November. After that he was not
permitted to enter Burma by the ruling military regime. The regime denied
and rejected all his visas.

____________________________________
BUSINESS/TRADE

November 16,Narinjara News
New regulation concerning Burma-Bangladesh border crossings hits poorer
traders the hardest

Burmese authorities in Maung Daw, a trading town on the Burma-Bangladesh
border, have issued a new regulation regarding border crossings for
business purposes, with poor traders who rely on daily crossings hit the
hardest.

In order to now cross the border legally, a person has to be a member of
the Myanmar Chamber of Commerce, as well as possess permits from both the
Rakhaine State Peace and Development Council (SPDC) and from the
Immigration Department.

To gain membership of the Chamber of Commerce, a registration fee of
20,000 kyats is required, while 3,000 kyats have to be paid for the permit
from the Immigration Department. The processing time for the permit at the
SPDC office takes at least 20 days, according to one trader.

Since poorer traders who commute daily between the two countries cannot
afford such an amount of money, they are now not able to procure the
required travel permits to cross the border. The new regulation is not a
problem for wealthier traders, but poorer traders are now facing economic
hardship.

An Arakanese in Maung Daw says the new regulation is aimed at limiting
border crossings by opposition activists who travel to Bangladesh to
attend meetings with other exiled activists. Indeed, the new regulation
was implemented after rumors spread of activists from Arakan taking
advantage of the previous day passes to cross the border into Bangladesh.

Previously, a legal day pass only required permits from the District Peace
and Development Council office in Maung Daw and from Maung Daw Immigration
office. The cost of the pass was 150 kyats in Maung Daw and 25 taka at
Teknaf Checkpoint in Bangladesh.

____________________________________

November 16, Thai Press Reports
Thailand’s electricity provider EGAT to invest with Myanmar on building
hydroelectric dam

Soaring oil and electricity prices may persuade state-owned EGAT Plc to
jointly invest with Myanmar in building a series of hydroelectric dams on
the Salween River which could generate up to 1,200 megawatts of
electricity. Energy Minister Viset Choopiban said talks between his
ministry and the electricity ministry of Myanmar were held recently on
possible construction of five or six hydroelectric dams on the Salween
River which could generate electricity up to a total of 20,000 megawatts.

The Hat Gyi hydroelectric dam is expected to be the first dam of the
series of dams to be built, the energy minister said, and according to a
feasibility study, its electricity production could be increased to 1,200
megawatts from the 700 megawatts estimated earlier.

The planned joint investment in hydropower production with Myanmar will
benefit both countries and create a stable energy supply, Mr. Viset said,
while Yangon would gain additional revenue. EGAT Plc--the former
Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand--a recently privitised state
monopoly, has expertise in production of electricity and will provide
joint investment in this project with the Myanmar government.

Noting that the amount of water stored in major dams Thailand this year is
greater than in previous years due to several rainstorms, Mr. Viset said
the hydro dams would help Thailand save foreign exchange by not buying oil
for electric production.

Construction of PTT Public Co. Ltd.s third natural gas pipeline is
scheduled to be completed by mid-2006 and will also help lower electric
production costs, the energy minister said.

____________________________________
ASEAN

November 16, Agency France Press
Rice chides ASEAN for being soft on Myanmar

US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice on Wednesday chided Southeast Asian
nations for failing to speak out strongly enough against human rights
abuses in Myanmar, which she called one of the world's worst regimes.

"I don't think that we get the kind of international condemnation of
what's going on in Burma (Myanmar) that we really need," Rice told
reporters at the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) forum.

"I understand that a lot of countries that are neighbors of Burma feel the
need to engage them, but I would hope that that engagement also takes the
form of being serious about the really quite, quite appalling human rights
situation in Burma."

Washington has repeatedly called for the release of Myanmar's democracy
icon Aung San Suu Kyi and her National League for Democracy party leader U
Tin Oo as well as other political prisoners.

But Rice, calling the military junta in Yangon "really one of the worst
regimes in the world," said abuses went far beyond the mistreatment of
Aung San Suu Kyi, winner of the Nobel Peace Prize in 1991.

"We're talking about really systematic efforts to silence any critics of
the regime, to put human rights organizations completely out of business,"
Rice said. "Burma is a very bad case and so we are talking to people
here."

Rice upset some members of the 10-nation Association of Southeast Asian
Nations when she pulled out of an ASEAN meeting in July in Laos. She cited
scheduling problems, but it was widely seen as an attempt to pressure the
group over Myanmar.

US President George W. Bush has imposed trade and investment sanctions on
Myanmar's military regime in his campaign to press for democratic reforms.

Speaking in Japan Wednesday, Bush said that "the abuses by the Burmese
military are widespread, and include rape, torture, execution and forced
relocation."

He is due to meet the leaders of seven ASEAN members -- Brunei, Indonesia,
Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand, Singapore and Vietnam -- at the APEC
forum on Friday. Myanmar is not a member of APEC.

Earlier this month Washington condemned Myanmar's leaders for holding
secret trials and sentencing eight Shan political leaders to lengthy
prison terms.

Human rights groups accuse Myanmar's military of atrocities against ethnic
minorities, including displacing more than 300,000 Shan and abusing
thousands -- including children -- as forced laborers.

Rice also singled out Myanmar for criticism in her speech to the APEC
ministerial meeting.

"When tyrannical governments like Burma abuse their citizens and deny
their rights, it is the responsibility of all free nations to condemn
these actions," she told the gathering.

Rice later told reporters she felt it was important to mention Myanmar
"because too often it kind of falls off the radar screen of people who
don't concern themselves every day with human rights and democracy
issues."

The government in Myanmar has frequently been a source of embarrassment to
ASEAN in recent years. But the group insists that engaging the junta will
more likely bring change than confrontation.

____________________________________
INTERNATIONAL

November 16, New York Times
Bush, in Japan, suggests that China expand freedoms – David E. Sanger

President Bush planned to open his tour of Asia on Wednesday with a
carefully couched warning to China's leaders, telling them they are
finding "that once the door to freedom is opened even a crack, it cannot
be closed."

Mr. Bush's comments, in the text of a speech that he is scheduled to give
in the afternoon after touring the Golden Pavilion of the Kinkakuji
Temple, one of the treasures of Japan's ancient capital, stopped well
short of prescribing to the Chinese a future course.

But coming just three days before Mr. Bush lands in Beijing, the speech
implicitly urges China's leaders to follow the path of Japan, South Korea
and - in a comparison senior administration officials said they knew would
annoy Beijing - Taiwan, which Mr. Bush called "free and democratic and
prosperous."

Since long before Mr. Bush took office, Chinese officials have borrowed
from other models, like Singapore, whose leaders have allowed economic
prosperity and elections, but have kept strong political controls in
place.

Mr. Bush never mentions Singapore's experience in his text, though he
excoriates Myanmar - which he refers to by its former name, Burma - and
North Korea for harshly repressing their people.

"Fifteen years ago the Burmese people cast their ballots, and they chose
democracy," Mr. Bush's text read. "The government responded by jailing the
leader of the pro-democracy majority," a reference to Daw Aung San Suu
Kyi, who won the Nobel Peace Prize in 1991 and has lived under house
arrest for 14 of the last 15 years. "The result is that a country rich in
human talent and natural resources is a place where millions struggle
simply to stay alive."

In his discussion of North Korea, Mr. Bush makes only the briefest
reference to the country's "pursuit of nuclear weapons," following the
administration's apparent policy of not publicly acknowledging the North's
claim that it already has several weapons, and the C.I.A.'s estimate that
it has produced the fuel for six or more during Mr. Bush's presidency.

Instead, he said, "we will not forget the people of North Korea,"
declaring that the "21st century will be freedom's century for all
Koreans."

The text of Mr. Bush's speech was notable in part for what it omitted: He
did not repeat his past characterization of Kim Jong Il, the North's
leader, as a tyrant, and he made no reference to the administration's
quiet effort throughout Asia to cut off the North's main sources of
revenue: counterfeit currency, drugs and the sale of weaponry.

That appeared to be an effort not to rile South Korea, where Mr. Bush is
scheduled to arrive Wednesday evening and which has adopted a different
approach to the North, boosting its aid and investment in the country even
as Washington is trying to cut off the North's income.

The president's characterization of China is being closely scrutinized on
this trip because it may reflect the outcome of a long-festering internal
debate in Washington. At issue is how the United States should treat
President Hu Jintao's claims that China's ambition is simply for a
"peaceful rise" to superpower status.

In June, speaking in Singapore, Defense Secretary Donald H. Rumsfeld
challenged China's description of its own intentions, declaring that no
"candid discussion of China" could neglect to address what he charged was
a huge military buildup that China has refused to talk about publicly.

"Since no nation threatens China, one wonders: why this growing
investment?" Mr. Rumsfeld said. A later Defense Department report detailed
China's missile buildup opposite Taiwan, and its rapid modernization of
its comparatively small but effective nuclear arsenal. Mr. Rumsfeld was
also more direct than Mr. Bush in defining what path he expected China to
take to democratization, saying, "Ultimately, China will need to embrace
some form of open, representative government if it is to fully achieve the
benefits to which its people aspire."

But Mr. Rumsfeld was more circumspect during a recent visit to China, when
he was allowed to tour some military facilities. And Mr. Bush, in his
prepared remarks, did not use the words "strategic competitor" to describe
China, a phrase he often reached for during his 2000 presidential campaign
and in the early days of his first term.

"This is delicate for the president," one of Mr. Bush's senior aides said
in Washington last week. "He's been disappointed with the pace the Hu
government has been setting - and he needs to find the right way to spur
him." It is a problem, another senior official said, that is analogous to
Mr. Bush's mixed relationship now with President Vladimir V. Putin of
Russia, another leader who he thought, in the first term, he had a special
rapport with.

It is a measure of how much has changed in American perceptions of power
in Asia that Mr. Bush spent so much of his time in Kyoto discussing China
- a country whose rapid rise has become a preoccupation of the Japanese.
Fifteen years ago, when Mr. Bush's father visited Japan, it was Tokyo's
own rise that was paramount. On Wednesday, basking in his friendship with
Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi, Mr. Bush barely mentioned trade
differences with Japan, like disputes over the import of foreign beef or
the opening of the agricultural market, a key element of the negotiations
over a new global trade accord.

Instead, Mr. Bush fell back on lines now familiar from his past speeches,
talking about how during World War II "my father and a Japanese official
named Koizumi were on opposite sides," and now the son of that official
"is one of my best friends in the international community."

But his description of Japan as a democratic power in Asia could have been
uttered - and often was - by presidents a half-century ago. "Freedom is
the bedrock of America's friendship with Japan," he said, speaking of the
country's aid to Afghanistan and Iraq, "and it is the bedrock of our
engagement with Asia."

He also made no public mention of Japan's recent renewal of tensions with
China. It was unlikely, officials said, that Mr. Bush would raise Mr.
Koizumi's recent decision to go to the Yasukuni Shrine, where the spirits
of Japan's war dead are honored, inflaming the Chinese. As a result, Mr.
Koizumi appears unlikely to meet with Mr. Hu at the summit meeting in
South Korea that opens Thursday.

____________________________________

November 16, Mizzima News
Bush slams Burma in Kyoto speech - Alison Hunter

US President George W. Bush heavily criticised Burma yesterday in a speech
in Kyoto, Japan as part of his tour of Asia.

President Bush took the opportunity to slam the lack of freedom in Burma
and criticised the widespread abuse of Burmese people at the hands of the
military junta.

Describing Burma as a country, "that should be one of the most prosperous
and successful in Asia but is instead one of the region's poorest",
President Bush said Burma had seen little progress.

"Fifteen years ago, the Burmese people cast their ballots and they chose
democracy. The government responded by jailing the leader of the
pro-democracy majority. The result is that a country rich in human talent
and natural resources is a place where millions struggle simply to stay
alive," President Bush said.

"The abuses by the Burmese military are widespread, and include rape,
torture, execution and forced relocation. Forced labor, trafficking in
persons, use of child soldiers and religious discrimination are all too
common. The people of Burma live in the darkness of tyranny but the light
of freedom shines in their hearts. They want their liberty and one day,
they will have it."

President Bush also heavily criticised North Korea and warned China that
its people would soon expect greater freedom. The comments are likely to
further aggravate the Burmese military who have launched a media campaign
against the UN the US and the report by Vaclav Havel and Desmond Tutu,
'Threat to the Peace: A Call for the UN Security Council to Act in Burma'.

An article in the state-run New Light of Myanmar today again complained
about the report and the US record on human rights and slavery.

". . . the US should be very careful in putting pressure on and imposing
various sanctions against developing countries and should not forget its
historic events", the article said.

____________________________________
OPINION / OTHER

November 16, USA Today
A chance for the U.S. — in Burma - Haseenah Koyakutty

A solitary round-faced clock hung above the doorway of the monastery. It
was labeled "Myanmar," and it told Burma's time. The clock stood between
four empty slots that were labeled London and Tokyo to the left and New
York and Paris to the right. It was the kind of linear clock display that
would be common in an airport control tower. But this was a monastery in
backward Burma, where time ticked so slowly that monks who meditated all
day had little use for it.

This was one of those perfect metaphors for Burma's isolation and
idleness. If the passage of time had little meaning for monks, the same
might be said of the United States' apparent lack of concern for Aung San
Suu Kyi, Burma's pro-democracy leader, whose confinement and 10
accumulated years imprisoned passed this past month with little notice.

To be sure, while President Bush visits some Asian economic powerhouses
nearby this week, Burma gets overlooked. Indeed, Burma is so enigmatic,
even the United States is baffled about how to deal with it. The best
Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice could muster was to call Burma an
"outpost of tyranny."

Burma's repressive military government has ruled this outpost the size of
Texas since 1962. The country's freedom icon, Suu Kyi, still languishes
under arrest despite her party's landslide election in 1990. The army had
called for the elections, only to ignore the results when they did not go
its way. To be fair, the United States did respond after the Burmese
elections with economic sanctions. Even so, many countries have given the
sanctions limited support.

The United States can still make a difference. While it dawdles, however,
Burma has found better friends in India and China, which have ignored
those sanctions. And that does not bode well for U.S. leverage on the
military regime or for Suu Kyi. Even as U.S. sanctions continue to hold
Burma captive, its 52 million people are beginning to reap the rewards of
their economically vibrant neighbors:

• In Mandalay, to the north of the capital, Rangoon, roads are
increasingly jammed with motorbikes and used cars, a heady leap from ox
carts.

• Everything from TV sets, refrigerators, washing machines to chandeliers
is available at various shops.

• Another new bridge has been ceremoniously opened by the regime, widely
described as incompetent. A sign at Mandalay's contemporary airport reads:
Towards a Modern and Progressive Nation.

• Newspapers are sometimes smuggled. Cable TV is available and so is the
Internet, though notoriously filtered, and Web-based emails are blocked.

This transition is inevitable as Burma's geopolitics cuts into the
crossroads of two great civilizations. But what impact will the rise of
China and India really have on Burma's political process?

The Burmese army will have little incentive to change the status quo or
hurry to release Suu Kyi, who they fear is a destabilizing force.

The United States, however, still has the upper hand. U.S. diplomatic
pressure has recently helped force Burma to quit its rotating chairmanship
of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations. With its influence over
ASEAN, Washington should persuade members, who will meet in Malaysia for
its annual summit next month, to focus on Burma as vigorously as economic
integration. China and India mightignore U.S. sanctions but not ASEAN
members, whose goods and goodwill they need.

Washington is also hoping to bring the plight of the Burmese to the United
Nations Security Council. After the Iraq debacle, though, not many may
listen. So, America has to try harder. Burma has no nukes and is not
swimming in oil. Yet it represents the United States' chance to regain its
moral standing in the world.

No one knows what's in store for Burma. But time — in any time zone — is
ticking away for Suu Kyi and for democracy.

Haseenah Koyakutty is a Singaporean journalist and former Indonesia bureau
chief with an Asian news network.

____________________________________

November 15, The Guardian
Onward and inward - John Aglionby

Burmese information minister Brigadier General Kyaw San tells reporters
the capital is being moved to Pyinmana because it is centrally located
with quick access to all parts of the country.

The first video emerged yesterday of the new Burmese capital, Pyinmana,
located deep in the jungle, 250 miles north of the long-time seat of
government, Rangoon. It shows drab, grey buildings, few people in the
streets and lots of construction in progress.

The fact that these pictures were not beamed out triumphantly across state
media at the time of last week's move, but taken surreptitiously and
smuggled out to the Japanese television station NHK, speaks volumes about
the whole project. Virtually everyone outside the tiny ruling clique finds
it either bizarre or, more usually, as with most things associated with
the regime in recent years, completely unfathomable.

The two main questions regime watchers are groping with are why move at
all and why move now considering so much of the fortified compound is
unfinished?

In true Orwellian fashion, the government justified the upheaval it cannot
afford in a terse and ambiguous statement. "Due to changed circumstances,
where Myanmar [the regime's name for the country] is trying to develop a
modern nation, a more centrally located government seat has become a
necessity."

But the only changed circumstances many people can identify are the
junta's growing isolation and the nation's continuing spiral down into
economic chaos.

Locating the capital in Pyinmana has some precedent - independence hero
General Aung San used it as his headquarters during the second world war -
but little else can be said to justify the move.

Even Singapore, which is usually pretty sympathetic to Burma and might
well have been expected to remain silent on such a matter, went so far as
to publicly describe the move as "puzzling". "That's diplomatic speak for
barmy," a western diplomat based in the island state told Guardian
Unlimited.

Rumours swirling around Rangoon explaining the move usually begin with the
generals' paranoia about a US invasion, making Rangoon, which is near the
sea, an easy target. The fact that the US military is already
overstretched and that Washington has much higher priorities than wading
into Burma appears to have escaped attention.

More credible is the idea that, since Pyinmana is close to the rebellious
Shan and Karen states, the generals will now find it easier to exert their
control in these areas.

But perhaps most likely is the fact that the current regime, led by Senior
General Than Shwe, wants to divide the military from the civilian
bureaucracy and so hinder any attempt to seize power as it moves slowly
towards pseudo-civilian rule under its almost universally criticised
roadmap to democracy.

Astrology is also thought to have played a significant part, although more
in the timing of the move. This goes someway to explain the complete lack
of readiness, the fact that the initial move was done in secret and that
only one of the nine ministries which moved - foreign affairs - issued
contact details in the first week after upping sticks. Foreign diplomats
wanting to contact government officials were told to "send a fax" but they
have no idea where to.

So the changing circumstances lauded by the government are all but certain
to continue changing - for the worse.

As the UN resident coordinator in Burma, Charles Petrie, was quoted as
saying in the Thailand-based publication, The Irrawaddy: "We're still not
sure exactly how we will be able to continue interacting with our
counterpart ministries during this period and afterwards. As a result we
are not really sure how we need to organise ourselves to ensure minimum
disruption," he continued. "We fear a period of complication that will
probably delay things."

Another puzzle surrounding the move - particularly if it was designed to
stifle dissent - is the fact that civil servants will be separated from
their families for months. As the family accommodation is still not ready
the staff will be treated as virtual prisoners in the fortress compound.
Not only will they have to run two households but their means to do so
will be severely curtailed since they will no longer be able to run the
businesses many developed in Rangoon to finance their lifestyles.

Perhaps the most accurate explanation for the move is thus the most
obvious; namely, the regime's bunker mentality has just risen to a whole
new level. As Debbie Stothard of The Alternative Asean Network on Burma
told Guardian Unlimited: "It seems Than Shwe would rather live in a
fortress than with the consequences of his own misrule."

____________________________________

November 16, Mizzima News
Burma: Violence in the making - Aung Naing Oo

A possible outbreak of violence is staring into Burma's face. This is a
view shared by many Burmese who saw its devastations in 1988 during the
uprising.

"There is greater probability of violence erupting in Burma than before,"
Concurred May Nyein, a well-known lecturer and writer from Burma.

Indeed, there is a genuine concern in the country these days because if
violence erupts this time around it will be far more destructive. It is a
combination of understanding and fear that if violence breaks out in Burma
it will likely come from the ordinary people.

In 1988, it was the military that unleashed its tremendous force on its
own people who reacted by exacting revenge on a few agent provocateurs. To
use the words of Dr. David Keen, violence then was almost entirely
"top-down." Other acts of violence such as attacks on pro-democracy icon
Aung San Suu Kyi in 1997 in Rangoon and May 2003 at Depayin have all been
the handiworks of the Burmese junta.

Since the junta is responsible for initiating violence, violent acts have
somewhat been controlled and directed against very specific targets such
as the National League for Democracy and other pro-democracy and ethnic
activists. The junta has also been able to contain violence in the area it
initiates.

Unfortunately, Burma meets all seven conditions described by Dr. Keen in
his book "the Economic Functions of Violence in Civil War" from being a
weak state, an undemocratic regime under threat to economic crisis and a
prolong conflict. It is not a surprise at all that violence of this nature
has happened in Burma.

But the "bottom-up" violence or violent acts the ordinary people in Burma
may initiate are likely to be spontaneous, and can spread quickly. They
will do so not because they want to but because "they are forced to" as
Dr. Keen mentions in his book. And the violence is not likely to be
politically motivated. It will be intended for "short-term" gains. This
short-term is likely to be of economics in nature.

Indeed, there are dire economic conditions in Burma that choke the daily
life of the ordinary people. They devise ways to survive in these
difficult times. But as the country slides further down hill economically,
alternatives - survival methods not the livelihood - that are once
available - disappear steadily. When all means considered civil if not
entirely degrading to survive another day get exhausted, they will have
nothing left to resort to. They may turn to violence.

Although such violence will not be political in nature, the responsibility
will squarely fall on the junta because it will be the direct product of
the failures of the state. The military government has not invested in
social sectors such as health and education since it came into power in
1988. It commits policy errors and makes one blunder after another. It has
become more and more repressive. Above all, it appears to have total
disregard for the suffering of the Burmese people.

But one is not to play blaming games here but to warn how much such
bottom-up acts of violence can wreak havoc in the nation. Perhaps, the
stakeholders can look out for troubling signs such as increasing incidents
of violent crimes in the country. And perhaps, they can make necessary
preparations in order to prevent bloodshed and destruction.

But first let's see some simple scenarios in an advent of bottom-up violence.

The junta will react violently as it did in 1988. Such reactions will
solicit public outcry. And when the people walked out onto the streets in
1988 they had food to eat at home. In 2005 or 2006, they will have nothing
to eat at home so looting or other acts of violence aimed to filling the
empty stomachs will spread quickly. Also, as such kinds of violence are
initiated by the ordinary people themselves they will have motivation to
intensify. Violence will also be directed against government authorities
and employees.

There are other possible scenarios. But one thing is certain; it will turn
into politically charged gathering of peoples venting their anger on the
junta, confirming junta's worst fears.

Once the junta has tasted its own medicine, the country will have suffered
more. The generals may have to begin to walk on the shaky ground even to
the extent of losing their footholds. And the reconciliation after mass
killings takes longer. So does the rebuilding of shattered an traumatized
families and communities.