BurmaNet News, December 7, 2005

[Editor]

December 7, 2005 Issue # 2859

INSIDE BURMA
Mizzima: Junta's Burmese constitution will secure military role: Analysts
Mizzima: Rangoon fire victims ripped off by authorities

HEALTH / AIDS
AFP: Bird flu -- still a mystery to most in Myanmar

ASEAN
Xinhua: Myanmar PM to attend ASEAN summit
AP: ASEAN opens conference that will culminate in first East Asia Summit
Deutsche Presse-Agentur: Singapore hopes Myanmar won't be distraction at
Kuala Lumpur summit

REGIONAL
Irrawaddy: Environmentalists unhappy about Salween river dams project

INTERNATIONAL
Thai Press Reports: European Commission approves 1.5 Million in
humanitarian aid to Burma/Myanmar

OPINION / OTHER
Thai Press Reports: UN takes big step to address Myanmar (Burma) issues
Irrawaddy: Manila holds the key to the UNSC
IHT: Only a global campaign will change Myanmar

____________________________________
INSIDE BURMA

December 8, Mizzima
Junta's Burmese constitution will secure military role: Analysts -
Jessicah Curtis

As delegates at the National Convention debate the terms of Burma's new
constitution, opposition groups, political analysts and journalists say
any final document will be designed to secure military rule.

The latest session of the convention is aimed at deciding the role of the
Tatmadaw, or Burmese army, in any future government and Nyan Win, a
spokesman for the National League for Democracy said if documents and
statements released so far are anything to go by, Burma's political future
is anything but bright.

State-run newspaper the New Light of Myanmar today ran an article
detailing convention delegates' ideas for the future role of a Burmese
president. Nyan Win said there were several sections of the article that
were questionable.

In particular he questioned a section that appeared to indicate a
President would answer to no one.

"The President shall not be responsible for answering to any Hluttaw
(parliament) or to any Court for the exercise or performance of the duties
and functions vested in him by the Constitution or any of the existing
laws or for any of his actions in the exercise and performance of these
powers and functions," the statement said.

While in other sections of the same article it was clear the President
would have to answer to the parliament, the document is vague, which Nyan
Win said was a deliberate ploy to give the junta room to move.

"It shows the President would be not accountable to even the parliament
that elects him," Nyan Win said.

"This constitution will not give us a democratic system."

Burmese political analyst Aung Naing Oo said while much of the information
in the report was common to the constitutions of other countries there
were several serious problems with it including the fact that it almost
certainly required a member of the military to take on the position of
President.

"I have seen other documents also on this that require the President to be
well versed in military affairs. It is basically designed to make sure Suu
Kyi can not do it but it also means no civilian can really take on this
role," Aung Naing Oo said.

Most documents relating to the role of the President refer to possible
incumbents of the position as "he" which Aung Naing Oo says could also be
designed to exclude Aung San Suu Kyi.

"The fact that he is referred to as a he probably implies he will be from
the military."

A Burmese journalist based in Rangoon also told Mizzima documents on the
role of a future President were designed to keep much of Burma's political
power in the hands of one man - Senior General Than Shwe.

"It is obvious - these articles were written so Than Shwe could keep his
grip on power and still be able to say we have democracy," he said.

"There will be no democracy. It will still be a military government."

The Burmese military will expect to be represented by 25 percent of any
future parliament and the proposed National Defense and Security Council,
made up of senior cabinet members, is almost certain to be dominated by
the military.

"These are the guys who will make key policy implementation because the
President will chair this," Aung Naing Oo said.

"The constitution is in line with military thinking."

____________________________________

December 7, Mizzima
Rangoon fire victims ripped off by authorities

Victims of the fire that ravaged Hlaing township in Rangoon last week said
they were ripped off by Burmese officials who reportedly stole gifts given
to them as part of relief efforts.

Some meal packages donated by celebrities to people affected by fire were
found to contain gold ornaments and precious stones but when relief
operations officials caught wind of the bonuses they began searching
packages to claim the trinkets for themselves.

Sources told Mizzima victims of the blaze quickly became angry with
officials who used their hands to search cooked food for valuable items.
They said they shouted at officials for them to give aid packages directly
to those who needed them.

Victims also said authorities stole bottles of drinking water donated to
victims who only received five bottles per family.

The 'Hlaing fire', which broke out on November 28, was the worst fire in
Rangoon since 1988. According to official reports, 1,557 houses were
damaged in the fire while sources said more than 3000 homes were
destroyed.

But a policeman from Hlaing police station told Mizzima, "This is just
exaggeration. They thought that the government would give them back the
plot and flat to each house owner and household." He implied victims would
try to con the government into giving them property that was not theirs.

Fire victims rejected the statement saying household registration
documents were almost impossible to fake.

Sources told Mizzima construction companies were falling over themselves
to win the contracts to rebuild the area. Asia World have donated Ks. 10
million to the relief effort and stand the best chance of winning projects
in the areas, sources said.

____________________________________
HEALTH / AIDS

December 7, Agence France Presse
Bird flu -- still a mystery to most in Myanmar

Moeyingyi: Khin Maung Win stopped eating chicken a month ago when he
learned about bird flu from his friends.

Now he regrets having taken a job as a night guard at Moeyingyi Wildlife
Sanctuary, 110 kilometers (70 miles) north of Yangon, where migratory
birds descend every winter in search of rich harvests.

"It's dangerous to eat chicken because you will get bird flu. I see many
birds but I don't touch them," said Khin Maung Win, 25, at the sanctuary.

Myanmar's military rulers only recently started a public awareness
campaign about the deadly H5N1 strain of avian influenza, which has
claimed nearly 70 lives in Asia since 2003, including 13 in neighboring
Thailand.

The junta insists there is no bird flu in Myanmar.

"According to the ministry of livestock and fisheries, there is no bird
flu," agriculture minister Htay Oo told reporters.

He said that officials were monitoring the lakes where migratory birds
tended to stop during the winter months, and would notify UN agencies if
the H5N1 detected.

"It's quite a distance to come to Myanmar, and they have to fly over high
mountains to come to our country," he said.

"Therefore, we speculate that the birds that have this disease, they were
left behind because they cannot fly over the mountains to enter our
country."

But for villagers living next to the vast wildlife sanctuary, bird flu
poses a serious concern.

"Migratory birds will come here next month. We are worried some birds from
China or other countries may be infected with bird flu," said Aung, a
63-year-old carpenter who was polishing a wooden boat at the reserve.

The sunburned grandfather said he still ate chicken but had given up
chicken livers, kidneys and intestines -- all delicacies in Myanmar -- for
fear of bird flu.

The H5N1 virus can spread from birds to humans through close contact,
especially through blood or excrement. But scientists fear the virus could
mutate into a form that passes easily among humans, causing a global
pandemic.

UN agencies, notably the World Health Organization (WHO) and the Food and
Agricultural Organization (FAO), are active in Myanmar monitoring for bird
flu, but many experts fear the country's crumbling health system would
fail to detect an outbreak.

"The potential for spread is very high, and just the basic capacity to do
anything about it is very low," a senior western official in Yangon said,
on condition of anonymity.

At golden rice fields across the sanctuary, farmer Mar Ni, 30, said she
refused to eat chicken even though she is eight months' pregnant with her
second child.

"I am scared. You get infected by eating chicken," said the rice farmer as
she was taking a break from reaping rice harvests with a sickle. "My
doctor instructed me to eat chicken for the baby, but I don't eat
chicken."

Few people here understood that thoroughly cooking chicken eliminated any
danger of catching the disease.

Many people like Ma Maw, Mar Ni's co-worker, were confused about bird flu.

"There are all kinds of birds. I don't know which types of birds are
infected with bird flu," the 30-year-old female farmer said.

Wah Wah, an 18-year-old watermelon vendor, also believed eating chicken
could cause infection.

"I learned from people that you get sick by eating chicken," said the
vivacious girl. "But I am not really worried because nothing is happening
here."

At Tamwe Chicken and Poultry Market, the biggest of its kind in Yangon, a
supervisor said the government was taking every measure to ensure health
safety.

"We are doing whatever we have to do. Just look at the market. We have no
bird flu," said the supervisor who declined to be named.

Aung Khin, a 42-year-old worker at the market, said he was not worried
about bird flu.

"We wear shoes, gloves and masks. We don't need to worry about bird flu,"
he said, although none of the workers at the market appeared to be
anything on their hands or faces.

The market was littered with chicken feathers and blood stains.

"We cook chicken very well. There is no bird flu. It cannot happen here,"
market worker Aung Khin said.

____________________________________
ASEAN

December 7, Xinhua
Myanmar PM to attend ASEAN summit

Myanmar Prime Minister General Soe Win will attend the upcoming 11th
Summit of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), said an
official announcement here Wednesday.

The ASEAN summit, scheduled to begin on Dec. 11 in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia,
will be also attached with the Second Summit of Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar
and Vietnam (CLMV), ASEAN+3 (China, Japan and South Korea) Summit,
ASEAN-India Summit, ASEAN-Russia Summit and 1st East Asia Summit.

Soe Win is expected to brief the summits on Myanmar's latest development
and its policy, separately meet with some leaders of ASEAN members and
other dialogue partners on the sideline of the summit, and have bilateral
talks with them.

The 10th ASEAN Summit was held in Vientiane , Laos, in November 2004,
attended by Soe Win representing Myanmar for the first time after he
became prime minister in October the same year.

Meanwhile, Myanmar informed ASEAN in July this year that it had decided to
renounce its scheduled rotating ASEAN chairmanship in 2006 giving the
reason that it would want to focus its attention on the ongoing national
reconciliation and democratization process.

As a guideline towards the goal of national reconciliation and
democratization, Myanmar announced in August 2003 a seven-point roadmap
which mainly includes reconvening the long-suspended constitutional
national convention, which has already resumed now, holding referendum
over the draft of the constitution and holding general election to give
rise to a new democratic government.

ASEAN has expressed complete understanding over Myanmar's decision,
appreciating the Myanmar government for not allowing its national
preoccupation to affect the grouping's solidarity and cohesiveness and
appraising its commitment to the well-being of ASEAN and its goal of
advancing the interests of all member countries.

Myanmar was officially admitted into the regional grouping in July 1997.

____________________________________

December 7, Associated Press
ASEAN opens conference that will culminate in first East Asia Summit –
Vijay Joshi

Kuala Lumpur: Southeast Asian countries on Wednesday opened an annual
conclave that will culminate in their hosting of the first-ever East Asia
Summit in a still-vague drive toward greater European-style integration.

The summit plans drew fire from former Malaysian leader Mahathir Mohamad -
once a driving force behind the integration campaign - for including
Australia in the grouping, which he said would risk it being hijacked by
Washington's interests.

"Australia is basically European and it has made clear to the rest of the
world that it is the deputy sheriff for America," Mahathir told reporters.
"Therefore Australia's views would represent not the East, but the views
representing the stand of America."

On Wednesday, diplomats from the 10 countries of the Association of
Southeast Asian Nations, or ASEAN, opened talks in Malaysia's main city,
Kuala Lumpur, to discuss regional cooperation and threats of terrorism and
bird flu in preparation for a meeting of their leaders on Monday.

They also discussed the role of ASEAN in the East Asian Summit to be held
on the last day of the gathering, Dec. 14, when ASEAN government heads
join counterparts from China, India, Japan, South Korea, Australia and New
Zealand.

That grouping accounts for about 3 billion people, or half the world's
population, and a fifth of global trade, but the goal of the meeting
remains unclear. Some countries, led by India, want the summit to result
in firm moves toward an East Asia Community, along the lines of the
European Union, followed by the world's biggest free trade area.

However, some Southeast Asian countries and China fear that implementing
the grand vision of an East Asia community could overshadow ASEAN. Also,
Beijing is reluctant to share the top billing with economic rival India in
any mega Asian club.

The differences have delayed the drafting of a final summit declaration.

"The senior officials are in the final stages of working on the Kuala
Lumpur declaration on the East Asia Summit," ASEAN spokesman M.C. Abad
told reporters. But they will leave it to leaders to map out the future
direction, he said.

"This declaration will convey a message of ASEAN's centrality in the
process and at the same time, recognize the role of countries
participating in the East Asia Summit in the community building efforts in
the region," he said.

If India and others have their way, such a community would go beyond
simply easing the flow of goods as stressed in the region's free-trade
agreements, moving to liberalize investment, export of services and the
movement of people. Some Asian countries have even proposed an eventual
common currency, as Europe has instituted.

But ASEAN members caution against haste.

"The process has just begun, and we don't know yet whether it will lead to
or contribute towards East Asian community building," said Indonesian
Foreign Ministry spokesman Marty Natalegawa.

Founded in 1967 as a bulwark against communism, ASEAN - comprising Brunei,
Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, Philippines, Singapore,
Thailand and Vietnam - has little to show in terms of political clout even
though it holds about 300 meetings a year.

Its biggest failure has been on Myanmar, whose military junta has
maintained an iron grip on the country and kept pro-democracy leader Aung
San Suu Kyi under house arrest despite frustrated pleas by its neighbors
to democratize.

Myanmar's politics won't be discussed in formal conference sessions. On
the agenda, however, are developments on the Korean peninsula, terrorism,
maritime security and the threat of bird flu.

____________________________________

December 7, Deutsche Presse-Agentur
Singapore hopes Myanmar won't be distraction at Kuala Lumpur summit

Foreign Minister George Yeo said Wednesday he hopes developments in
Myanmar (Burma) will not be too much of a distraction during the ASEAN
Summit and East Asia Summit in Kuala Lumpur.

Referring to the recent announcement that Nobel peace laureate Aung San
Syu Kyi's detention had been further extended, Yeo said, "What's happening
in Myanmar is very sad and a bit of an embarrassment to the ASEAN family".

"Some of the things which have happened there recently are still a mystery
to us," he told reporters. "But they are part of the family and we've got
to support each other, so I hope the issue will not be too much of a
distraction."

Aung San Syu Kyi opposition party won a landslide victory in the 1990
election, but the military leadership has never recognized the result.

The country's chairmanship of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations
(ASEAN) took centre stage when the grouping's foreign ministers met in
Laos in July for their annual meeting.

Myanmar announced it was foregoing the grouping's chairmanship in 2006.

It indicated it wanted to focus attention on the national reconciliation
process.

In addition to Myanmar, ASEAN includes Singapore, Indonesia, Malaysia,
Thailand, the Philippines, Brunei Laos, Cambodia and Vietnam.

____________________________________
REGIONAL

December 7, Irrawaddy
Environmentalists unhappy about Salween river dams project – Sai Silp

Environmentalist warn that a power plant project scheduled to be endorsed
by Burma and Thailand on Friday holds financial risks and also poses a
threat to the livelihoods of people living in the region.

The project—involving the construction of five hydroelectric plants on
Burma’s Salween River—is to be endorsed in a memorandum of understanding
between the Rangoon government and the Electricity Generating Authority of
Thailand (Egat). Egat’s chief executive officer, Kraisi Karnasuta, said on
Monday that the energy ministers of Thailand and Burma would witness the
signing ceremony,

Witoon Permwongsacharoen, an environmentalist from the Foundation for
Ecological Recovery, an environmental organization based in Bangkok, told
The Irrawaddy that the project represented a high risk investment, besides
posing a grave threat to the livelihoods of people living in the region
where the dams are to be built.

“The situation of Egat is not stable at this time, nor is the Burmese
military government stable for doing business,” Witoon said, pointing out
that Burma is the subject of international boycotts. There would be an
adversary effect on Thailand if Egat went ahead with the project, he said.

Satarn Cheewawichaipong, an environmentalist who works in Sob Mei, in
northern Thailand’s Mae Hong Son province, said the construction of the
planned dams would involve a diversion of the Salween River that would
endanger the livelihoods of people in the region, both within Burma’s
Karen State and in Thailand. No account had been taken of local concerns,
he said.

An official of EarthRight International, which is concerned with
environmental issues in Burma, said the Salween River project had not been
subject to the normally-required “environment and social impact
assessment.”

The first of the five hydro-electric plants initially planned by Burma and
Egat—Hat Hyi dam in Karen State near Mae Sot, on the Thai-Burma
border—will take up to six years to build and have capacity of 1,200
megawatts. The five plants will have a combined capacity of 10,000
megawatts.

Thailand says the plants are necessary to ensure adequate energy supplies
in the region.

____________________________________
INTERNATIONAL

December 7, Thai Press Reports
European Commission approves 1.5 Million in humanitarian aid to Burma/Myanmar

The European Commission has adopted a 1.5 million humanitarian aid
decision in support for vulnerable groups in Burma/Myanmar. The aid is
being provided through ECHO, the Commission's humanitarian aid department,
which comes under the responsibility of Commissioner Louis Michel.

"Humanitarian aid must be provided where it is most needed, and regardless
of the political situation in a country. The decision for Burma/Myanmar
will channel aid through humanitarian agencies direct to the
beneficiaries," said Mr Michel.

This latest decision for "1.5 million, the first of several planned for
2005, will address some of the basic humanitarian needs of the most
vulnerable populations in Burma/Myanmar. The decision focuses on forgotten
needs, especially in the border areas, including health, water and
sanitation and protection activities.

In many of the country's remote areas 75-85% of the population does not
have access to basic health care. In these areas the services provided by
humanitarian organisations represent a basic but often life-saving
presence for people who have never seen a doctor in their lives. ECHO
funds will be used to provide basic health care through mobile clinics
with special attention to malaria, tuberculosis and diarrhea, the most
life threatening diseases in Burma/Myanmar; mother and child care, as well
as health, hygiene and nutrition education to the population and training
to health staff are the other priorities for ECHO.

To reduce the incidence of waterborne diseases ECHO funds will be used to
improve the water and sanitation systems in schools in one of Yangon's
poorest townships, coupled with hygiene education for pupils.

Part of the funds will benefit children living in six special institutions
and four orphanages across the country. The buildings will be renovated
and children will receive kits with clothes, school items and hygiene
products. Health and hygiene training will also be organized for all
children.

The funds will also allow UNHCR to register and regularly visit returnees
from Bangladesh. School enrollment will be facilitated for the children
among them and literacy classes organised for adults and adolescents.

Around 250,000 people will benefit directly from this intervention. ECHO
contributed more than 19 million for the victims of this crisis in 2004.

(European Commission to Thailand: 16 June 2005)

____________________________________
OPINION / OTHER

December 7, Thai Press Reports
UN takes big step to address Myanmar (Burma) issues

The decision by the United Nations Security Council to attend a formal
briefing on Burma is by far the biggest step the world body ever has taken
against the string of military juntas which have run Burma for 43 years.

The UN is still obviously far from taking direct action as it did in
places like Afghanistan and Cambodia. But the decision puts Burma on
notice that the threshold for tolerating dictators is shrinking.

The UN bureaucracy already favours a regime change in Burma. Now the vital
Security Council has served notice the generals may be on borrowed time.
The case against the regime is long, and clear. What began in 1962 as an
indefensible move against freedom and democracy has metamorphosed into an
often vicious, entirely arbitrary regime, governing a voiceless
population. Military rule has impoverished the country, enriched the
generals and established a drug-dependent, alternate-universe economy
where honest businessmen suffer and drug traffickers are honoured.
Speaking of democracy means punishment, working for democracy is
actionable and leading a democracy movement brings imprisonment.

The Internet is something the outside world enjoys, and TV news means
reading officially censored bulletins, generally about glorious
agricultural projects.

A month ago, without notice, the government packed up and left Rangoon for
the hill community of Pyinmana. Diplomats were bewildered, almost as
confused as citizens needing government services. The reasons for the move
are unclear, but seems to be a combination of legend and astrological
prediction of a US military invasion. The secretive move will cost Burmese
tens of billions of baht. Of course, they have no such funds, and the
moving costs will come as usual from foreign aid, forced labour and - once
again - the largesse of wealthy, ennobled drug dealers. All these
resources are owned by the Burmese, and all could be put to better use.

The treasured narcotics dealers now are evolving into designer drug
traffickers''. The old, mass-market smuggling has given way to filling
specific orders for heroin, methamphetamines and similar drugs. While
claiming to be wiping out opium fields through heavy-handed destruction of
certain farms, the regime remains dependent on old and new heroin and pill
makers. Lo Hsing-han and his family, Khun Sa and his supporters and a
string of other drug barons continue to invest'' in the totally skewed,
largely corrupt Burmese economy. In recent months, the regime has also
announced it wants a nuclear research reactor. This is highly troubling.
Thailand has long had such a facility, but putting a nuclear station in
the hands of a secretive, unstable and seemingly incompetent regime would
be a bad idea.

Last September, Nobel Peace laureates Vaclav Havel and Desmond Tutu called
for the release of their colleague Aung San Suu Kyi. Their report called
for Security Council action, reminding the UN of its own past record
against outrageous regimes in Afghanistan, Sierra Leone, Haiti, Yemen,
Rwanda, Liberia and Cambodia.

Burma, they said, is worse than all seven, far worse'' in their words.
Russia, that wants to sell Burma the nuclear reactor, and China, a
defender of many brutal dictators, at first resisted the US-led call for
Secretary-General Kofi Annan to arrange the formal briefing on Burma. But
even Moscow and Beijing failed to justify any more protection of the
Burmese junta. Similarly, every man and woman at a meeting of Asean
parliamentarians last week in Kuala Lumpur called for their governments to
stop supporting the generals.

A Malaysian MP compared the Burmese generals to Hitler and Stalin. As
former Thai ambassador to the UN Asda Jayanama said, the UN action is a
big step forward for democrats. The chairman of the inter-parliamentary
Burma caucus, Zaid Ibrahim, called on Asean to suspend or expel the
regime. As even China and Russia join the UN in searching for an end to
the Burmese dictatorship, the Thai government should change its policy. It
is no longer fitting for Thailand to be seen to be supporting such a
clearly disreputable and insupportable dictatorship at our border.

____________________________________
Dec 7, Irrawaddy
Manila holds the key to the UNSC – Clive Parker

The Philippines has demonstrated that at least one Asean country can help
to get the international community moving on the Burma issue. And its
usefulness in bringing the issue to the fore globally may not stop at
casting its vote to have the UN Security Council receive a briefing on
Burma.

Whether or not Manila broke Asean’s traditional “constructive engagement”
stance towards Burma by supplying the crucial ninth vote at the UNSC, it
means that at least one member of the regional grouping could play a
crucial role in convincing China and Russia and maybe others to soften
their stand on Burma.

If Washington’s permanent representative to the UN, John Bolton, is able
to make the forthcoming briefing on Burma—possibly by UN Secretary General
Kofi Annan—the beginning of UNSC intervention, and not the end, then Asean
as a grouping could be seen to be playing an important part in convincing
skeptical Council members, including China and Russia.

Moscow’s representative to the UN, Andrey Denisov, has already said he and
other members do not consider the Burma problem to be an international
one. In China’s case, this is difficult to fathom. It is already widely
accepted that its HIV/AIDS epidemic originated in Yunnan province, a
southern province which shares a border and an intravenous drugs problem
with Burma.

So for the time being, Washington’s primary target should be the only
other permanent UNSC member not to fall into line on the Burma
issue—Russia.

Denisov’s recent insistence that Asean should be consulted, given it knows
the Burmese junta best, may be the opening Bolton and his allies on the
Burma issue are looking for. If Moscow is sincere in its stated desire to
consult Asean, then Manila could play the crucial role in bringing the
rest of the bloc onside.

Vietnam, Laos and Cambodia are unlikely to be swayed, given their own poor
record on human rights and democracy. However, if Thailand—widely
considered too soft on the Rangoon regime—were persuaded to give an
honest, accurate assessment of its problems caused by the junta, it could
point to a long-running refugee crisis caused by ethnic conflicts over the
Burmese border. Like China, it too has been greatly affected by drugs
produced in Burma, most recently methamphetamines.

Some of Burma’s various ethnic insurgency movements have also spilled over
the Thai border, as well as into India. But perhaps the biggest reason for
Asean to unify behind Manila’s lead is the sheer embarrassment caused by
Burma, an Asean member, internationally.

Critics argue that if the Council is prepared to address the Darfur human
rights issue—contained within Sudan’s borders—then why not Burma’s? Darfur
may be a problem of greater intensity, but Burma’s slow-burning conflicts
promise to continue indefinitely unless the international community takes
action.

The junta’s current progress towards democratization—a paltry third of the
way through the first stage of a seven-step “roadmap”—has taken 13 years.
On this basis it would take more than a century to reach Rangoon’s
definition of democracy, whatever that is.

When touting its policy of non-intervention, Asean would do well to
recognize that Burma’s military government will be a huge embarrassment
and core of regional suffering for years to come.

If Manila can convince the rest of the grouping that results could be
achieved much more quickly by following its “more explicit” approach, it
would send a powerful message to the rest of the 15-member Council. A
trickle of countries switching sides on the Burma issue could well turn
into a flood—one with the potential to prompt dramatic, positive change.

____________________________________

December 8, International Herald Tribune
Only a global campaign will change Myanmar - Michael Vatikiotis

Singapore: The decision to discuss the situation in Myanmar at the United
Nations Security Council is a bold move, prompted by the United States, to
ratchet up international pressure on one of the world's most stubborn
military dictatorships.

Putting Myanmar on the council's formal agenda won't produce any binding
resolutions that force the military junta to change, nor will it secure
release for the opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi, who has just had her
detention order renewed another year. But it does signal that Myanmar is
creeping high up the U.S. policy agenda in Asia. This could help unify
international efforts to bring about change in the country.

Myanmar is one of the few issues in Southeast Asia - perhaps the only one
- that Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice feels strongly about. Rice has
called the military junta "one of the worst regimes in the world."
President George W. Bush raised Myanmar in his public speeches and private
consultations with Asian leaders on his recent Asian tour. "The people of
Myanmar live in the darkness of tyranny," Bush said in Kyoto on Nov. 16,
adding "they want their liberty - and one day, they will have it."

That day has been a long time coming, in part because attempts at
persuasion using sanctions and political isolation have not received
backing from the two powerful countries with which Myanmar shares a land
border. China and India are Myanmar's largest trading partners and compete
for influence over the junta to protect their strategic access to the
country. China needs
access to the sea, and India wants protection from irredentist movements
in Assam. By engaging the Security Council on the issue, the United States
hopes to close the back door to China and India that has allowed Myanmar
to survive global opprobrium and sanction.

The Security Council debate also indirectly sends a signal from the
Association of Southeast Asian Nations, which brought Myanmar into the
grouping in 1997. The Philippines, which is serving a term on the Security
Council this year, supports the debate.

The Myanmar question has long been debated at the United Nations through
an annual resolution in the General Assembly, which the junta ignores. The
hope in New York is that by moving the debate to the Security Council a
precedent can be established so that more effective pressure can be
sustained.

The question is, what kind of pressure? Bringing Myanmar to the council
amounts to little more than a desperate move if there is no plan behind
it.  Conditions inside the country suggest an urgent need for action on
humanitarian grounds. The World Food Program estimates that one third of
children in Myanmar suffer from malnourishment or are physically stunted. 
Thousands of people languish in prison or endure forced labor for spurious
political offenses.

Myanmar's generals have proved even more resistant to international
sanction than the North Korean regime, which at least seeks aid and
development from the world in return for giving up its nuclear weapons
program. Myanmar's reaction to this anticipated push for change has been
to move the capital to a remote site in the hills 300 kilometers north of
Yangon. It isn't even certain how the results of the Security Council
debate might be conveyed to the junta in its new bunker, since the fax
numbers provided to foreign missions aren't yet working.

China, along with Russia, tried to sabotage the Security Council move and
would veto any binding resolution that emerged. India, the world's largest
democracy, has proved a stubborn hold-out on Myanmar, citing instability
on its northeastern border as a major reason for coddling the junta. If
New Delhi can more or less ignore long standing UN resolutions on Kashmir,
how
much more difficult will it be to turn a blind eye to tougher resolutions
on Myanmar?

Perhaps more forceful diplomacy is needed. The UN secretary general, Kofi
Annan, has only tepidly tried to engage the junta using special
representatives who are routinely denied access. When one such envoy, Ali
Alatas, a former Indonesian foreign minister, finally made it to Yangon
earlier this year, he was given a long lecture on the history of Myanmar
and told that the secretary general could visit the country at a time that
was convenient to both sides - diplomatic code for not anytime soon.

Annan should lobby China and India to support the debate and prevent
Myanmar's ruling generals from selling the Security Council debate as a
purely American ploy in a country that still uses arcane anticolonial
rhetoric to justify keeping the outside world at bay. He should spend more
time in Asia talking about Myanmar, and present the briefing to the
council himself. The danger of a solely U.S.-led campaign in the Security
Council is that regional states, already tired of American bullying, could
be persuaded to defend their indefensible neighbor.

(Michael Vatikiotis is a visiting research fellow at the Institute of
Southeast Asian Studies, Singapore.)