BurmaNet News, February 1, 2006

[Editor]

February 1, 2006 Issue # 2891


INSIDE BURMA
AFP: Suspended talks dash hopes for reform in Myanmar
Reuters: French ex-soldiers join up with Myanmar rebels
Kaowao: Army targets villagers for not speaking Burmese
IMNA: Burmese authorities ban Mon theatre shows

ON THE BORDER
Thai Press: Thailand police detains illegal immigrants from Myanmar (Burma)
DVB: Shan State Army leader insists no child soldier used

BUSINESS / TRADE
Irrawaddy: Resource-hungry China to devour more of Burma’s gas and oil
industry

INTERNATIONAL
Irrawaddy: Bush touches on Burma in State of the Union speech
The Hindu: U.N. for ASEAN role in Myanmar

OPINION / OTHER
Irrawaddy: Burma deadlock

____________________________________
INSIDE BURMA

February 1, Agence France Presse
Suspended talks dash hopes for reform in Myanmar: analysts

Yangon: The latest suspension of Myanmar's constitutional talks dashes any
hope of ending the process this year and is likely to deepen international
frustration at the lack of democratic reform, analysts said Wednesday.

On Tuesday the ruling junta adjourned the latest session of its National
Convention until the end of the year but gave no exact date for when talks
among its 1,000 handpicked delegates would resume.

"I don't think that the National Convention will end in the next session,"
said one delegate, Tin Tun Maung, a former member of the pro-democracy
opposition who attended the talks as an independent.

The generals say the talks on drawing up a new constitution are the first
step on their "road map" to democracy in a nation ruled by the military
since 1962.

The sputtering process began more than a decade ago and has achieved few
tangible results.

The latest rounds have been internationally condemned for failing to
include the opposition National League for Democracy, which is boycotting
the convention to demand the release of its leader Aung San Suu Kyi and
other political prisoners.

The postponement Tuesday came amid mounting international pressure for the
junta to deliver on long-promised democratic reforms.

Myanmar was among a short list of nations named by US President George W.
Bush in his State of the Union address Wednesday as part of the world that
still needs "freedom".

A western diplomat in Yangon said the delay means the constitutional
project could not end before 2007. "This is long. They have chosen to buy
time," the diplomat told AFP.

He said the junta may have slowed down the process because the generals
have yet to resolve "sensitive" issues like possible elections, the role
of political parties and the special powers of the military.

A military observer in Yangon warned that regardless of the outcome of the
talks, the junta would maintain its central role.

"In any future political equation, the military must be included as a
constant factor," the analyst said. "Everything else can change."

Sunai Phasuk, a Human Rights Watch consultant on Myanmar, said the junta
may have adjourned the talks because of disputes within the military about
how to proceed.

"Although the draft constitution gives the generals control over all
levels of the new executive and administrative structure, they could feel
that tensions are building up within the (junta) as well as between the
military and the rest of society," Sunai told AFP in Bangkok.

"They fear the possibility of a domino impact, similar to what happened in
Indonesia, which would lead to either a coup or democratic uprising (that
could) start a chain reaction and take away their power," he added.

But the delay was likely to upset the Association of Southeast Asian
Nations (ASEAN), which admitted Myanmar in 1997, one pro-democracy group
said.

Myanmar agreed in December to allow Malaysian Foreign Minister Syed Hamid
Albar to visit the country as an ASEAN envoy to check on the progress
toward democracy.

"In the past 12 months, any legitimacy the National Convention had as a
means of moving forward has evaporated," said Debbie Stothard, coordinator
of the Alternative ASEAN Network on Burma, the country's previous name.

"ASEAN members no longer give it weight," she said.

____________________________________

January 31, Reuters
French ex-soldiers join up with Myanmar rebels - Nopporn Wong-Anan

Pu Bo Mya Plaw, Myanmar: Former French commandos are helping train ethnic
Karen guerrillas locked in a decades-long struggle against Myanmar's
military junta, rebel leaders said on Tuesday.

Dressed in military fatigues, two foreigners attended a ceremony inside
rebel territory to mark the 57th anniversary of the Karen National Union's
(KNU) "Resistance Day", the start of what has become one of the world's
longest-running conflicts.

"No, I'm French," one of the pair said when asked if he was American. He
and his colleague, who appeared to be in their late 20s, refused to answer
any more questions from reporters.

They were also reluctant to appear on film, moving away from television
cameramen present at the ceremony in the guerrillas' jungle hideout around
150 miles (230 km) east of Yangon.

"They are French commandos who help us fight the SPDC," said Colonel
Nerdah Mya, son of renowned and now wheelchair-bound, 79-year-old KNU
supremo, General Bo Mya.

The SPDC -- or State Peace and Development Council -- is the official name
of the military junta which has run the former Burma under various guises
since a 1962 coup.

Nerdah declined to give details of the full extent of the French pair's
involvement in the KNU's fight for an ethnic Karen homeland inside the
southeast Asian nation which won independence from Britain in 1948.

FRENCH MERCENARIES KILLED

Officials at the French embassy in Bangkok said they were surprised by the
sighting and suggested the foreigners might have been masquerading as
Frenchmen.

"I have no information about any French nationals staying with the Karen
-- either mercenaries or not. But anything is possible," an embassy
spokeswoman said.

However, analysts say it would not be unprecedented for former French
soldiers to become involved with the KNU and its armed wing, the Karen
National Liberation Army (KNLA), which could have between 2,500 and 5,000
soldiers.

"There has been longstanding, if informal and sporadic, relationship
between former French military people and the KNLA," said Anthony Davis of
Jane's Intelligence Review in Bangkok.

In 1985, state media in Burma -- as Myanmar was then called -- said
28-year-old Parisian Jean-Phillippe Courreges-Clercq was killed when 150
Karen rebels attacked a Burmese military outpost near the Thai border.

An Australian, identified as Martin Donnelly, 26, alias Sonny Wingate, of
Perth, suffered shrapnel wounds in the same incident and was treated in a
hospital in the Thai border town of Mae Sot, the reports said.

Four years later, state media in Yangon said a French mercenary, Olivier
Thiriat, had died of shrapnel wounds sustained during clashes with Karen
guerrillas along the Thai border. (Additional reporting by Darren
Schuettler and Ed Cropley)


____________________________________

February 1, Kaowao News
Army targets villagers for not speaking Burmese

Sangkhalaburi – With no respect for basic human rights, the Burmese
military junta in Wear Kwao in northern Ye Byu Township, are forcing
villagers to work as labourers and torturing them simply for not speaking
Burmese, according to refugees who recently fled the area.

Nai Hla Aung from Wear Kwao explained what happens in the village when
Burmese troops arrive over the past nine years.

“About 24 villagers in two groups are put on standby and are called upon
to serve as porters when the troops go on the offensive. When not engaged
in any operation, villagers are forced to get water from the stream,
collect wood and vegetables for cooking. Other villagers are ordered to
guard the railway road against rebel attacks, such as bombs being thrown
at soldiers at night.

“Children of the ages of 10 are forced to work as labourers for the
troops, but are replaced by adults when the troops need them to carry
ammunition to launch an offensive” Aung said.

He fled the village with others because he can speak Burmese and is able
to communicate with SPDC soldiers, but is now worried that the Mon armed
group will attack him. He added that the there was no fighting or open
fire between the two sides, only the occasional ambush like the one last
month in which SPDC soldiers were killed. “The SPDC soldiers are afraid of
launching an offensive outside the village,” he added.

The village abbot, 70, wanted to leave the village, but was forced by the
SPDC to stay in the village .He is distressed with the situation he is in.

“Most villagers cannot speak Burmese and because of this four were used to
pull an ox-cart as part of a torture, and like an ox, a small piece of
wood with nails was used to make the men walk,” he added. Nai Agoh, Nai
Apin and two others were tortured in this manner. . Many were tortured
simply because they could not speak Burmese and they could not explain
where the rebels were hiding.

“Mr Nai Aboh, 30, and Mr Nai Akyin, 35, each paid 700 Kyats to the
commander to be freed and the village abbot was ordered to make sure they
did not communicate with the rebel group” Aung added.

Ms, Tin Shwe says that she has given everything and has no more money
left. Her husband had to flee to the border in the hope of getting work in
a rubber plantation to survive.

“We have no more money. We must work in plantations in Thailand’ Shwe said.

There are two groups from the village who just arrived on the Thai border.
More villagers are expected to arrive soon.

“Many of our villagers have moved out to other villages over the years. No
one wants to live in that village anymore. But it is not easy to sneak out
of the village. We can only escape gradually or else we will be shot dead
if caught” Shwe explained.

____________________________________

February 1, Independent Mon News Agency
Burmese authorities ban Mon theatre shows - Chan Mon

In the hands of the Burmese military junta nothing is safe not even
culture. The regime has banned Moulmein, based groups from performing
theatre in Mon State. The reason for not allowing the drama performances
to be held is not clear.

“It is difficult to get permission for a show. They (Burmese authorities)
said the dates for the shows were coinciding with the examination schedule
of students,” a group leader explained.

“I performed the show one night but our show has been stopped by the
authorities over the last two days. I am still waiting for permission to
perform the show,” he added.

According to a source close to the authorities, they banned the shows to
stop students from joining in on the amusement. Local authorities
regularly prohibit the public from watching video shows and private film
shows during this time of the year. In the third week of February, most
government schools have examinations lined up for students.

“We are still performing dramas in our town. Although students sit for
their tests we continue to have theatre shows this time of the year, every
year, said Ko Tun Shwe from Three Pagoda Pass.

The authorities have also denied permission to some theatre groups and
have stopped them from performing shows during the Mon National Day
celebration.

“The authorities did not give permission for a show in Chungzone town for
the Mon National Day celebration slated for February 13,” said a Mon
theatre actor.

The Mon National Day Celebration Committee is worried about the attitude
adopted by the local authorities. Recently local authorities in Mudon and
Moulmein township ordered that the Mon National Day hoardings to be
brought down.

According to the theatre groups, the Burmese military government was being
strict because of what they had performed. The theatre groups have to
report about the show they have performed and have to apply for a show
detailing what they are going to perform. The Township Peace and
Development Council regularly censor the script of the drama.

____________________________________
ON THE BORDER

February 1, Thai Press Reports
Thailand police detains illegal immigrants from Myanmar (Burma)

Marine police Friday afternoon rounded up 53 illegal immigrants from
Myanmar (Burma) who tried to sneak into Phuket by a boat, The Nation
reports.

Acting on tips-off from some fishermen, marine police found the illegal
immigrants on board a boat on the westerly side of the island province at
about 1 pm.

The boat was about 3 nautical miles from the popular Kamala beach.

Most of them were Muslims and five were children.

Pol Lt Col Prathuang Sriramontree, a marine police officer, said most of
the illegal immigrants were Muslims.

They were charged with illegal entry into the kingdom. They are being
detained at the Krathu district police station pending interrogation by
Special Branch police and they would be later deported, Prathuang said.

____________________________________

January 31, Democratic Voice of Burma
Shan State Army leader insists no child soldier used

The leader of Shan State Army – South (SSA-S) Col Yawd Serk insisted that
his group does not use children, denying allegations by Burma’s ruling
junta, the State Peace and Development Council (SPDC) that he pressed boys
into military service, according to a report by Reuters.

Yawd Serk insisted that all his fighters are aged 18 to 50 and none under
18. His emphatic denial came after the SPDC claimed this month that a
group of captured guerrillas had included several teenage SSA soldiers,
including one, a private called Soe Naing, who was only 13.

The SPDC, which has frequently been accused of using child soldiers
itself, paraded Soe Naing and his colleagues in front of diplomats and
Rangoon-based reporters two weeks ago.

However, Yawd Serk said the news conference was a ploy to discredit his
guerrilla force, insisting that Soe Naing is a not Shan but a Burmese boy.
Yawd Serk added that his group doesn’t use threats and force to recruit
new fighters as it is not practical.

In 2002, Human Rights Watch accused the SPDC of recruiting an estimated
70,000 child soldiers, many of whom were forced to commit atrocities
against ethnic minority civilians, the New York-based group said.

____________________________________
BUSINESS / TRADE

February 1, Irrawaddy
Resource-hungry China to devour more of Burma’s gas and oil industry -
David Fullbrook

Chinese energy company PetroChina has reached an understanding to buy
almost a tenth of Burma’s huge gas reserves. Those gas dollars will most
likely be squandered on guns rather than education and healthcare. Many
more dollars will probably flow as a pipeline plan, road, and railway
projects suggest Beijing is close to opening trade routes through Burma—a
long-held dream.

In early November or December, Rangoon quietly agreed to a memorandum of
understanding to sell 6.5 trillion cubic feet of gas to Chinese oil giant
PetroChina, an amount that would take Singapore 30 years to exhaust.

Given Rangoon and Beijing’s relations, which remain close despite friction
after the ouster of Khin Nyunt as prime minister and intelligence chief in
October 2004, turning the memorandum into a deal should be a mere
formality.

“It certainly contributes to the consolidation of Sino-Burmese solidarity
and drives a wedge between Burma and India,” says Dr Li Nan, senior fellow
at Singapore’s Institute of Defence and Strategic Studies.

Neither Burmese officials nor PetroChina executives have been trumpeting
the sensitive agreement. PetroChina did not respond to requests for
further information.

The PetroChina deal is embarrassing for India, who had been making much of
joint-ventures between Chinese and Indian energy companies in Syria and
Sudan during 2005. More so because Indian firms also hold a 30 percent
stake in the Korean-led consortium developing Burma’s A1 gas block.

“This pattern—China trumping India—seems to be recurring through the
region, their ‘joint pact’ notwithstanding,” says Dr Sean Turnell, an
economist studying Burma at Australia’s Macquarie University.

India apparently only learned of the matter when senior official Ajay
Tyagi arrived earlier in January to negotiate a deal for gas from Block
A1. After that snub he reportedly cut short his trip.

Not that Delhi has publicly rebuked Rangoon or Beijing. Indeed, the matter
only slipped out because Indian consultants leaked it to the Indian press,
after Tyagi returned empty handed.

Delhi hoped to be the first customer for gas from Block A1, which lies
under the Bay of Bengal offshore from the Burmese town of Sittwe, a few
hundred kilometers from Kolkatta.

Fortunately for Delhi, and other prospective customers, PetroChina does
not appear to have agreed to buy all Burma’s gas. With 87 trillion cubic
feet of gas estimated to lie off the coast, Burma’s reserves are among
Asia’s largest, only slightly less than Indonesia. Their position,
sandwiched between energy-hungry giants China and India, could hardly be
better.

Even if China’s economy stopped growing—it currently doubles in size every
9 years—its oil and gas imports would continue to rise because China’s own
oil and gas fields are small and shrinking. Piping in gas from neighboring
Burma will help make up that shortfall. “It's good for development of
southwest China,” says Li.

Delivery to China could start as early as 2009, when Block A1’s Shwe field
will start production. Construction of a pipeline at least 800 kilometers
long, from Sittwe, where Block A1 oil will come ashore, to Kunming, must
start this year to be ready in time.

Building the pipeline may well entail much blood and many tears. When a
pipeline was built from Burma’s offshore Yadana gas field, through
mountains once controlled by Karen and Mon guerrillas battling oppression
by the Burmese military, to power stations in Thailand, human rights
groups documented many cases of human rights abuse and forced labor. In
Thailand people claimed their rights and objections were cast aside.

A pipeline to Yunnan carries more significance than just fueling China’s
booming economy. It would set a precedent for more pipelines between
Burmese ports, closer to much of central China than east coast ports like
Guangzhou and Shanghai, reducing China’s dependence on shipping energy
imports via the crowded Malacca Straits between Indonesia and Malaysia.

Chinese generals worry the Malacca Straits might be closed either by a
terrorist attack or a blockade caused by an international crisis, perhaps
between China and America over Taiwan.

Tankers unloading their cargoes into pipelines running from Burma’s coast
to China shipping times would cut shipping times by about a week. Exports
travelling down roads, railways and the Irrawaddy to Burma’s coastal ports
and from there on to India, the Middle East and Europe would enjoy similar
savings.

Cheaper energy would also make Yunnan, Sichuan and Chongqing more exciting
to investors. China’s often slow and congested transport makes inland
China unattractive for many. They currently favor coastal provinces
despite land and labor being more expensive than in central China.

Beijing, however, wishes they would go west. It needs to energize the
inland economy because protests and riots by irate peasants, angry at
abuse by local officials stealing their land or pilfering compensation
funds, are increasing. With not enough jobs to go round and low wages,
discontent is growing.

Opening up Burmese trade routes should make transport quicker and cheaper,
luring more investors into central China, boosting the economy and
creating jobs. Beijing appears to have decided to go down this route,
judging by its recent actions.

Shan Herald Agency for News reports Chinese workers busy building roads
from Ruili in Yunnan to Bhamo, a port on the Irrawaddy River in northern
Burma, and from Tengchong to Myitkyina, the northern terminus for Burma’s
dilapidated railway.

These towns in the past lay on thriving trade routes. Britain even
maintained a consulate in Tengchong. Before the Second World War the broad
Irrawaddy was thick with huge passenger and cargo steamers.

Traders in Ruili, which attracts migrants from across China hoping to make
a quick yuan or two from border trade, say Chinese engineers have surveyed
Bhamo’s port for expansion and even consider dredging the upper reaches of
the Irrawaddy to improve navigation.

A new 12-lane customs and immigration post at Ruili awaits the arrival of
one of seven new national expressways Beijing announced a year ago. Locals
talk of a railway from Kunming arriving in 2007. A building boom suggests
this small town, now synonymous with gambling and prostitution, is betting
on a bright future. Clearly, China has grand plans for Burma.

Plans that Burma’s rulers appear to share. They have forced rebels to
surrender or agree to ceasefires in a corridor sweeping through southern
Kachin State and northern Shan State that covers trade routes between
Mandalay and China. The presence of active opposition forces made running
a pipeline through this area to China risky.

Receipts from gas sales and transportation fees will further insulate
Rangoon from western sanctions imposed for its dismal human rights record
and failure to restore democracy. Asean’s feeble efforts to coax Rangoon
into changing its ways seem even less likely than ever to work. “In the
longer term such monies allow the regime more breathing space to keep at
bay the fundamental reforms the country requires,” says Turnell.

It seems unlikely that Rangoon will spend gas revenue wisely, given the
regime’s obsession with security and a passion for arms spending. Thailand
already spends a billion dollars a year buying 20 percent of its gas needs
from Burma. “I suspect a 'gas curse' will function in Burma as much as the
'oil curse' has for exporters everywhere,” adds Turnell.

Oil revenues have only led to jealousies, political turmoil and fighting
in many poor countries. Rational analysis is about as valuable as the
prediction of a Rangoon fortune teller. What few facts there are about
Burma’s mysterious rulers bob upon a sea of rumors. “Political stability
in Burma could be one of the big unknowns for an agreement stretching 30
years,” says Li.

Persuading Beijing to offer a more stable alternative is probably the
opposition’s only hope to change the government. However if those gas
dollars fill any cracks and ease any tensions within the regime it could
rule on for a long, long time to come.

____________________________________
INTERNATIONAL

February 1, Irrawaddy
Bush touches on Burma in State of the Union speech

US President George W Bush last night referred to Burma as an example of
one of the increasingly few undemocratic nations of the world in his State
of the Union address, saying the spread of democracy had been one of the
main success stories since the Second World War. In an address littered
with references to democracy, freedom, evil and terror, the president
focused on America’s continuing push for democracy throughout the world as
a means of fighting “tyranny.”

“At the start of 2006, more than half the people of our world live in
democratic nations. And we do not forget the other half—in places like
Syria, Burma, Zimbabwe, North Korea, and Iran—because the demands of
justice, and the peace of this world, require their freedom as well,” Bush
said. The president’s mention of Burma in a speech seen as the blueprint
for US policy for the coming year is the latest in a series of comments
Bush has made on the country, particularly since his meeting with Shan
human rights campaigner Charm Tong at the White House in October last
year.

____________________________________

February 1, The Hindu
U.N. for ASEAN role in Myanmar - P. S. Suryanarayana

Singapore: United Nations Secretary-General Kofi Annan is understood to
have suggested that the Association of South East Asian Nations (ASEAN)
encourage the military-ruled Myanmar to move towards democracy, according
to Malaysia. This comes in the context of moves by some Western powers to
take the `intractable' issue to the U.N. Security Council.

Mr. Annan's apparent expectations acquire importance on two other counts
too - the recent resignation by U.N. Special Envoy to Myanmar Razali
Ismail, a former Malaysian diplomat; and the Council recognising the need
to discuss Myanmar's dismal human rights situation.

Mr. Razali seemed to have been unable to visit Myanmar for nearly two
years after the initial talks he held with the parties concerned. His
frustration has been generally traced to the intransigence of Myanmar's
junta. It has not only refused to take credible steps to engage democracy
icon Aung San Sui Kyi but also failed to quicken the implementation of its
own selective "roadmap for democracy."

The Council's move came after Myanmar's rulers successfully dodged Western
pressure on democracy by giving up their rotational right to chair the
ASEAN in 2006. The move for Council scrutiny includes the possibility of
imposing economic sanctions on Myanmar.
Malaysian Foreign Minister Hamid Albar is awaiting the junta's clearance
to visit the country on behalf of the ASEAN. Mr. Hamid has taken the line
that democracy is "not a security concern" of the international community
to merit scrutiny by the Council.
Indonesia, keen to re-establish itself as the prime ASEAN player, is also
planning an initiative with U.S. encouragement. The possibility of a visit
to Myanmar by Indonesian President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono is being
explored, according to diplomatic sources.

____________________________________
OPINION / OTHER

February 1, Irrawaddy
Burma Deadlock - Aung Zaw

As expected, Burma’s military leaders adjourned the latest round of
constitutional talks at the National Convention yesterday. The move has
prompted observers in Rangoon to suggest that Snr-Gen Than Shwe pulled the
plug.

A well-informed source in Rangoon has claimed that the most likely reason
for this most recent delay in proceedings is that the “Old Man” is not
prepared to see the convention through to a formal conclusion.

Burma has conducted the National Convention since 1993, in an on-again
off-again fashion that moves at a snail’s pace. Some regional governments
were hopeful that this year would be different after Burma’s foreign
minister, Nyan Win, said in a news conference that 2006 would be a
critical year for the constitution-drafting National Convention, a chief
element in the country’s professed road map to democracy.

Rangoon-based political observers suggest that Than Shwe’s focus is not
currently on the convention, but rather on military affairs and the
relocation of government ministries to Pyinmana in central Burma, the
country’s new administrative capital.

This latest postponement has caused disappointment among ethnic delegates
at the convention, but such feelings are not unfamiliar. The message from
Than Shwe is clear.  Constitutional talks will drag on well into 2007. No
one knows when or if they will ever formally conclude. And the road
leading to democracy gets longer and more treacherous.

Than Shwe is known to be the chief political strategist among Burma’s top
military leaders. Dubbed the “secret mover,” he never reveals his plans to
subordinates, let alone to the nation. Some analysts in Rangoon have
suggested that yesterday’s recess may have something to do with the
on-going reshuffle of military commanders, which has led to speculations
of a growing power struggle at the highest levels of the country’s armed
forces.

It has long been rumored that Than Shwe, who wants to oversee the
completion of the administrative city in Pyinmana and the relocation of
the junta’s War Office, is at loggerheads with the junta number two,
Deputy Snr-Gen Maung Aye.

Some observers believe that Maung Aye will be sent to Pyinmana, while Than
Shwe and his coterie of faithful lackeys remain in Rangoon. This would
allow Maung Aye to guide the day-to-day affairs of the War Office, but
under the watchful eyes of a staff loyal to Than Shwe. Military insiders
say that while Maung Aye has no political ambitions and thus poses no
threat, the junta supremo wants to keep him contained.

Rumors persist that Than Shwe, 75, will retire soon. But he has shown no
sign of slowing down, and so will need to tend carefully to his future and
that of his family. Before he lets go of the reins of power, he wants to
install a trustworthy replacement to lead the country’s armed forces.
Junta number three, Gen Shwe Mann, is considered a prime contender. With
Maung Aye lodged firmly between the two, the country—and indeed the
world—must wait for Than Shwe’s next grand move.

In addition to a looming power struggle for control of the military, Than
Shwe faces another serious issue. Many military officers have expressed
increasing dissatisfaction with delays in the completion of the National
Convention.

For now, though, the Old Man still calls the shots, and he will make
certain that his next step is safe and secure. This can only mean that any
future political transition will be further stalled, and Burma could be
stuck in a deadlock for years to come.