BurmaNet News, February 15, 2006

[Editor]

February 15, 2006 Issue # 2901


INSIDE BURMA
Washington Post: Burma disputes report that led to U.N. action
AP: Myanmar press commentary blasts human rights lessons at Western embassies
AFP: Tourist arrivals to Myanmar up 59 percent since 2000: government

ON THE BORDER
AFP: Asian Lives: Myanmar doctor tends wounds from hidden war

DRUGS
AFP: China urges Myanmar to step up anti-drug efforts

BUSINESS / TRADE
Irrawaddy: German companies explore business opportunities in Burma

REGIONAL
Australian: Chinese heat on Rangoon

OPINION / OTHER
Slate Magazine: Is Burma the next Iran? - Ian Bremmer
Bangkok Post: Burma, China strengthen bilateral ties – Larry Jagan
DVB: 88 Generation Students’ support for NLD’s Union Day Special Statement

___________________________________
INSIDE BURMA

February 15, Washington Post
Burma disputes report that led to U.N. action - Glenn Kessler

The U.N. Security Council's first-ever meeting in December to discuss the
deteriorating situation in Burma was prompted in part by a comprehensive
report in September calling for Security Council action that was
commissioned by former Czech president Vaclav Havel and Nobel Peace Prize
winner Desmond Tutu.

Now, an unusual document has been making the rounds of diplomats in Burma,
attributed to an unnamed "group of academics" at Rangoon University, in an
apparent attempt by the military government to provide a detailed response
to the comprehensive report. In a mocking tone, the document repeatedly
belittles or disputes issues that have seized international concern.

The 70-page Havel-Tutu report contended that the Burmese government poses
a threat to peace and security in the region, in part because it relies on
forced labor, widespread rape of ethnic women and government-sponsored
drug trafficking to maintain control.

During the Dec. 16 Security Council session, Ibrahim Gambari, the U.N.
undersecretary general for political affairs, privately told the Security
Council that the Burmese people "have many of their essential rights and
calls for democratic reform denied," and that there is no evidence the
government is dealing with the emerging humanitarian crisis, according to
a copy of his remarks

The 23-page Burmese response asserted that the country, also known as
Myanmar, is "one of a handful of countries facing unproven allegations"
and "many well-informed analysts have been perplexed" by the United
Nations' attention. It alleged that many of the figures concerning abuses
in Burma are based on reports by dissidents and refugees who are not
credible or seek to tarnish the country's image.

The document does not offer many detailed figures to counter the
dissidents' reporting. The Burmese government "could be accused of lack of
transparency but the government may have its own reasons for the lack of
transparency," it said. "It is indeed unfair to make allegations by just
basing them on one-sided accusations."

The Burmese document denied that more than 500,000 people had been driven
from their homes through forced relocations, with many people forced to
live on the fringes of society. It said that the problem was a "complex
one" caused by insurgents and drug producers, and that the government is
not to blame if people are hiding. The report asked: "How can the
government provide access to health and education to those who are hiding
in the jungle?"

The document also questioned predictions that surging HIV infections will
increase, asking, "why could it not be lower?"

Jared M. Genser, an attorney at DLA Piper in Washington, which prepared
the Havel-Tutu report, said the Burmese response was "a pretty transparent
attempt on the part of the junta to try to distract from the enormous
weight of international pressure it is feeling."

President Bush and Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice have taken a
personal interest in Burma as part of the administration's democracy
campaign. Aung San Suu Kyi, who won the Nobel Peace Prize in 1991, was
prevented by the Burmese military from taking office after her party won a
landslide electoral victory the year before. She has been in detention for
10 of the past 16 years.

Assistant Secretary of State Christopher R. Hill told Congress last week
that the administration is "considering next steps" to bring the Burma
issue again before the Security Council.

___________________________________

February 15, Associated Press
Myanmar press commentary blasts human rights lessons at Western embassies

Yangon: A Myanmar newspaper has blasted Western embassies for offering
classes in human rights and democracy that that were attended by critics
of the military junta.

The article published Wednesday in the weekly newspaper Yangon Times also
assailed members of the opposition National League for Democracy for
attending the courses given by the U.S. and British embassies.

"Attending classes given by these embassies amounts to subjugating
themselves to these countries and brazenly declaring themselves stooges of
these countries," the newspaper wrote.

The courses included international relations, basic human rights and
democracy, as well as English-language lessons hosted by the British
Embassy.

The classes amounted to "the most daring act" of interfering in Myanmar's
internal affairs, the paper said.

The embassies had no immediate comment.

Although the Yangon Times is privately published, the commentary is
believed to reflect the military government's opinion. The government
exercises tight control over all media, and can withdraw publishing
licenses at will.

The junta frequently accuses Western powers of trying to interfere in the
country's affairs and accuses Myanmar's pro-democracy movement of
collaborating with them.

The United States and Britain have imposed political and economic
sanctions on the Yangon regime because of its poor human rights record and
failure to hand over power to a democratically elected government.

___________________________________

February 15, Agence France Presse
Tourist arrivals to Myanmar up 59 percent since 2000: government

Yangon: Tourist arrivals to Myanmar have risen 59 percent since 2000 as
more visitors from Thailand, China and Japan entered the country, the
government said Wednesday.

Over 660,200 foreigners visited Myanmar in 2005, while the country's
tourism revenue reached 153 million dollars last year, up from 90 million
dollars in 2001, the tourism ministry said.

Thais accounted for the largest number of foreign tourists in 2005 with
27,199 visitors. China ranked second with 19,596 visitors, followed by
19,584 Japanese.

"We are developing the border tourism as our government opens more border
checkpoints for trading as well as for tourists," a ministry official
said.

Among European visitors, France ranked first with 15,295 tourists while
the number of US visitors totaled 16,598 in 2005.

____________________________________
ON THE BORDER

February 15, Agence France Presse
Asian Lives: Myanmar doctor tends wounds from hidden war

Mae Sot: There's no sign marking Dr Cynthia Maung's clinic, but almost
everyone on this stretch of the Thai-Myanmar border knows the way.

On a typical day, about 300 people come to the Mae Tao Clinic seeking her
care. Most are migrant workers who have fled the fear and desperation that
rules just across the river in Myanmar. Many have crossed the border
illegally, leaving them in constant fear of deportation and unable to turn
to Thai clinics for treatment.

But about one-third of her patients make the grueling and treacherous trek
from deep inside Myanmar, across the mountainous border, to seek her help.
She is their last hope of receiving even simple treatments that are either
unavailable or unaffordable at home.

They come to Dr Cynthia because she is one of them.

When a pro-democracy uprising shook Myanmar's military dictatorship in
1988, the response was brutal. Thousands are believed to have been killed
when security forces opened fire on protesters in the streets.

The crackdown sparked an exodus of refugees into Thailand, including Dr
Cynthia, who fled along with the rest of the people in the village where
she worked in Karen state.

At the time, she expected her exile would be brief.

"We thought to change the political situation in Burma would take three or
four months, but now it's 17 years," she says in a meeting room at the
clinic.

In those first chaotic weeks in Thailand, she travelled around the border
with ethnic Karen leaders, coordinating humanitarian and medical support
for people entering the refugee camps. She helped get people into Thai
hospitals, and then put together medical teams to coordinate doctors and
nurses among the refugees.

Her fledgling organization began as more of an administrative center to
coordinate medical services for the refugees. Gradually, she began to
receive some sick people who could not go back to their homes, and who
weren't sick enough to be admitted to the hospital.

So in February 1989, she began taking in patients, and eventually expanded
those services beyond emergency medical care.

-- 'We can't establish infrastructure or facilities' --

Clinic is too modest a word for the sprawling compound that Dr Cynthia has
created, just a few kilometers (miles) from the Myanmar border.

The brick and cinder-block buildings house a child-care center, a surgery,
a workshop to make prosthetic limbs, a delivery ward, and 120 beds
normally filled with patients. The shaded porches outside each room are
mostly filled with children playing with pregnant women getting check-ups,
and young people waiting for HIV tests.

Pictures of Aung San Suu Kyi, Myanmar's detained pro-democracy leader,
hang in many of the clinic's rooms. Many are posters urging her release
from house arrest.

The connection between the two women is not lost on the generals in Yangon.

Soft-spoken and simply dressed, her hair pulled back with a purple hair
band, 46-year-old Dr Cynthia has been attacked by the junta with the same
fervor as it has oppressed the pro-democracy opposition.

The junta has accused her of working with rebel groups, and in 1997 their
forces destroyed a network of small clinics she had created inside Myanmar
to serve people with no other health care.

But Dr Cynthia is determined to carry on the work she started in Myanmar
before the uprisings in 1988.

She grew up in the town of Moulmein, in Karen state along the Thai border,
where rebels have been fighting for autonomy for nearly six decades.
Conflict was always nearby, but her studies helped her get away.

Among a handful of students who tested into the University of Rangoon, the
former name of Yangon, to study medicine, she finished her medical
training in the capital just before the pro-democracy uprisings in 1988,
and returned to work in a village not far from her hometown.

Despite the efforts of the junta to thwart her clinics on the Myanmar side
of the border, Dr Cynthia has found new ways of sending treatment to
people inside Myanmar. She recruited and trained medics who strap on
backpacks full of supplies and hike through Myanmar delivering medical
aid.

"We can't establish infrastructure or facilities, but the health workers
go from village to village to provide services," she says.

In Myanmar these backpack medics face certain imprisonment or worse if
they are caught. When they return to Thailand, many of them have no legal
status and could be deported at any time.

But most of Dr Cynthia's work is with the thousands of people who find
their way here to Mae Sot, a town in the mountains on the Moei River that
separates Myanmar and Thailand.

She shrugs off questions about why she decided to stay in Mae Sot when so
many of her compatriots, especially trained professionals, have found more
comfortable lives overseas. Instead she talks about the importance of
building community ties here, both among migrants and the Thai residents,
and her concerns for Myanmar's youth.

The cases she deals with open a rare window onto a decades-old conflict
that has taken place largely outside the world's view.

--- Wounds from a hidden war ---

Rights activists accuse the regime in Yangon of countless atrocities
against the ethnic minorities who live in the regions along the Thai
border.

Some have argued that the regime's tactics amount to genocide, with mass
killings, forced labor, burning of villages, forced relocations, and the
recruiting of child soldiers.

Some of Dr Cynthia's patients bear the wounds of that violence, like the
40 people who came seeking prosthetic limbs after landmine injuries last
year. Another 160 people needed repairs or replacements for their
artificial limbs.

But most suffer from the side effects of Myanmar's crisis -- the
infectious diseases and malnutrition that afflict people forced from their
homes either by violence or by desperation.

About 30 percent of the patients admitted to the clinic suffer from
malaria, and another 10 percent have HIV or tuberculosis. Many who cross
the border for treatment need surgery, from cataract removals to heart
operations.

Although three other doctors are on staff, international teams of surgeons
visit throughout the year to volunteer specialized services.

Increasingly common are victims of social ills, a consequence of the
changing demographics of Myanmar's migrants.

Thousands of new migrants slip across the porous border every year,
pushing up the clinic's work by 20 percent from year to year, reaching
60,000 cases in 2005.

Most of the migrants used to be men who came seeking jobs to send money
back to their families. Now many families move together, with both parents
taking low-wage jobs in factories or on farms, often forced to leave their
children at home without anyone to care for them.

-- 'Many children and young people lost their opportunity' --

The changing profile of Myanmar's migrants has also changed the clinic's
caseload, with more incidents of malnutrition among children, more
unwanted pregnancies and unsafe abortions among young women.

Many of the migrants are illegal, although Thailand established a
registration system in 2001.

Last year some 850,000 people from Myanmar registered as migrant workers,
which gives them some access to Thai schools and health care, but tens of
thousands more are believed to be working in Thailand without documents.

Among those who did register are 63,000 Myanmar children aged under 12.
But the education ministry says only 13,500 children from migrant families
are attending Thai schools.

Even those who do register often live in abysmal conditions.

Amnesty International last year warned that Myanmar migrant workers are
routinely abused, paid below the minimum wage, arbitrarily arrested and
forced to live in unhealthy conditions.

Dr. Cynthia says she's especially worried about the fate of the children
of these migrant workers, whose chances for a better life she believes
have been dashed by the junta.

"Many children and young people lost their opportunity when they were
young," she says.

She estimates about 10,000 migrant children live around Mae Sot, and about
half go to schools organized by the Burmese community.

But the other half receive no education at all and are often difficult to
reach -- either because their parents are itinerant workers who travel
constantly, or because they work on farms or other areas too remote for
school to be accessible.

For those who are illegal, they can be arrested and deported at any time.

"Sometimes when someone goes for a walk, they get arrested and deported
and no one knows. Or the whole family gets arrested and deported," Dr
Cynthia says.

The illegal migrants often lead lives of quiet desperation. Afraid to
return home but in constant fear of deportation, they tend to live in
isolation without friends or family to help them, Dr Cynthia says.

"Also there has been no good community support systems, because people are
always mobile. So they have no holidays, no recreation."

The result of that stress is that violence in the home and the workplace
appears to be on the rise, she says. Wounds are often left to fester,
because workers are afraid of losing their jobs if they take a day off to
see doctor.

--- 'We need to have a vision' ---

Despite the hundreds of personal tragedies that enter the clinic every
day, Dr Cynthia still believes that Myanmar's military rulers could fall
from power.

"I think that they are getting weaker and weaker. They know what is
happening in the country but they ignore the problems. They just want to
continue their power," she says.

While she believes the international community hasn't offered the constant
support that Myanmar needs, she says part of the problem is that no one
has a vision for her country's future or for solving its problems.

"Many groups focus on an issue -- nutrition, HIV. The NGOs in Burma don't
have much opportunity to work closely with the community," she says.

"Sometimes (people trying to help) have short-term objectives but no
long-term vision. We need long-term commitment," she says.

"We still need to have a vision because the thing is, if the situation in
the political and social stability still threatens the country, it can
affect the neighboring countries, and the global community."

____________________________________
DRUGS

February 15, Agence France Presse
China urges Myanmar to step up anti-drug efforts

Beijing: China has urged Myanmar to step up efforts to fight drug
trafficking and warned of the dangers of the "flood" of narcotics crossing
their common border, state press said Wednesday.

Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao delivered the message to his Myanmar
counterpart, Soe Win, in talks in Beijing on Tuesday that opened the prime
minister's five-day visit to China.

"At present the Sino-Myanmar border area is being flooded with drugs,
posing a huge danger to the society and people," the China News Service
quoted Wen as telling Soe Win.

"We must pay much attention to this and adopt strict and punitive measures."

"The Chinese side hopes to strengthen with Myanmar bilateral and
multilateral cooperation and sign an anti-drug cooperation agreement at an
early date."

Myanmar is one of the world's biggest producers of opium, with the jungles
in the north of the country that border China one of the prime growing
areas.

Myanmar's military rulers, who took control of the country in 1962, have
long been accused by some foreign governments of condoning or having links
to the drug trade.

But Soe Win reportedly said he would cooperate with China to curb the
scourge.

As recently as 2004, Chinese police estimated that up to 80 percent of the
70 to 80 tonnes of heroin produced annually in Myanmar and nearby
countries transited China en route to global markets.

The trafficking has resulted in rising drug addiction and HIV/AIDS
infections in China, especially in southwestern Yunnan province, which
shares a 2,000-kilometer (1,250-mile) border with Myanmar, formerly known
as Burma.

The two nations have succeeded in curbing heroin trafficking through joint
police work in recent years, Chinese press reports said.

However the manufacturing of methamphetamine in Myanmar has also risen as
poppy fields are destroyed or planted with other crops.

Aside from discussing the drugs issue on Tuesday, the two nations signed a
series of bilateral economic agreements, including pacts to build a
hydropower plant in Myanmar and provide it with railway cars.

Wen also proposed stepping up joint efforts at energy and natural resource
extraction in Myanmar, the China News Service said.

Trade with China is vital for Myanmar's military rulers amid enduring
Western economic sanctions and increasing international isolation over the
lack of democracy and widespread human rights abuses in the country.

Trade between the two countries last year reached 1.2 billion dollars,
according to Chinese government statistics.

The two nations enjoy strong military ties, with China helping construct
naval bases in Myanmar, which sits on the Bay of Bengal and the Andaman
Sea near strategic global shipping lanes.

Soe Win met with President Hu Jintao on Wednesday, with both men praising
progress in bilateral ties, including growing economic and trade
cooperation.

The Myanmar leader departs Beijing on Thursday and will spend the rest of
his trip in the northern province of Shaanxi and Guangdong in the south.

____________________________________
BUSINESS / TRADE

February 15, Irrawaddy
German companies explore business opportunities in Burma

Delegations representing more than 50 German companies were due to arrive
in Rangoon this evening to explore business and trade opportunities in the
country. Representatives of the German trading company Rieckermann
Machinery Industrial Equipment arrived earlier in the week and met with
Burma’s Information Minister Brig-Gen Kyaw Hsan yesterday, the state-run
The New Light of Myanmar said. The Hamburg-based company is hoping to
supply printing equipment for books and journals to Burma’s military
government and the private sector, an employee of the German Asia-Pacific
Business Association—the body organizing meetings for the visiting
companies—told The Irrawaddy. Rieckermann already has offices throughout
the region including in Thailand, Indonesia and Hong Kong, and is hoping
to open a branch in Burma. The German Asia-Pacific Business Association
typically arranges business and trade visits to Burma every one or two
years. Germany’s foreign direct investment in Burma is, however, still
relatively low compared to other countries in Europe, reaching only US $15
million by the end of 2004, according to Burma’s Ministry of National
Planning and Economic Development.

____________________________________
REGIONAL

February 16, The Australian
Chinese heat on Rangoon - Rowan Callick

China has signalled to visiting Burmese Prime Minister Soe Win, a figure
unwelcome in the rest of Asia, that the pariah state could continue to
depend on China but needed to reform its medieval economy and relax
political repression.

Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao, who is to visit Australia in April, said after
meeting General Soe Win, leader of Myanmar (the national name introduced
by the military regime): "As Myanmar's neighbouring country, China
sincerely hopes Myanmar can continue to push forward reconciliation at
home and realise economic development and social progress."

This means Beijing wants Burma's military rulers to do more to accommodate
detained democratic leader Aung San Suu Kyi, and speed the country's
growth - in the interests of regional stability, and ultimately of China's
economic opportunities.

China withheld its veto to permit a discussion of Burma at the UN Security
Council last December, although only at an informal meeting.

At those talks, UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan expressed concern that
Rangoon's authoritarian government could threaten regional security.

And the Association of South East Asian Nations - with which Beijing is
building closer relations, including through a free trade agreement - has
become so angry with Burma's recalcitrance that the country was forced
last year to forgo the chairmanship of the association, and the hosting of
its major annual meetings.

While Burma provides China with strategic access to the Indian Ocean and
substantial supplies of timber, and is potentially a major oil and gas
producer, Beijing is starting to indicate concern, as it seeks acceptance
as the dominant Asia-Pacific power, about being viewed as the ally of
global pariahs.

North Korean leader Kim Jong-il toured China in January, and Zimbabwe's
President Robert Mugabe visited last year.

The diplomatic case that Beijing presents to its critics is that it is
presenting to these outcasts, through China's own example of global
integration, a persuasive case for gradual change - at least in the
economic arena.

General Soe Win will tomorrow visit the Chinese industrial powerhouse of
southern Guangdong province.

The two leaders signed agreements on Tuesday on the economy, technology
and aviation.

Mr Wen urged Burma to sign up to an international anti-narcotics pledge.

The Chinese Premier also pressed General Soe Win to be more accommodating
to the increasing numbers of Chinese - up to a million - who are living in
Burma.

However, China's Foreign Ministry spokesman Liu Jianchao reaffirmed
Beijing's view that questions about human rights in Burma were Rangoon's
"internal affair".

Beijing appears concerned that any lessening of its influence in Rangoon
would eagerly be replaced by that of India.

The Bangkok Post cited a Rangoon-based Asian diplomat as saying "the junta
is virtually bankrupt and needs Chinese financial support" - including to
build its bizarre new jungle capital, reportedly in response to
astrological warnings about the threat of foreign invasion.

____________________________________
OPINION / OTHER

February 15, Slate Magazine
Is Burma the next Iran? - Ian Bremmer

The United States and its European allies worry that if they simply accept
a nuclear Iran, other states will be encouraged to pursue nuclear
ambitions of their own. But that ship may already have sailed. As the
world watches the twists and turns of Iran's path toward the Security
Council, the military regime in Burma may be quietly selling its energy
resources to finance the acquisition of nuclear technology.

During her Senate confirmation hearings in January 2005, Secretary of
State Condoleezza Rice labeled Burma an "outpost of tyranny." Not without
reason. Since 1962, a military junta has ruled the country and carefully
maintained Burma's isolation from the international community. A popular
uprising in the late 1980s forced the regime to gamble on multiparty
legislative elections. But when the opposition National League for
Democracy won a landslide victory in 1990, the regime voided the result
and jailed many of the NLD's leadersincluding Nobel Prize-winner Aung San
Suu Kyi. A decade and a half later, Suu Kyi is again under house arrest
without access to even a telephone. Most of Burma's more than 50 million
people live in povertythough the government has blocked international
efforts to document their plight.

Burma's generals, known in state-controlled media as the State Peace and
Development Council, routinely harass and imprison opposition activists.
Citizens have been used as slave labor. The junta's security police have
been known to strafe demonstrators with gunfire. In December, an Asian
human rights group issued a 124-page report on the Burmese government's
"brutal and systematic" torture of political prisoners.

To deepen the country's isolation, last November the generals began to
move Burma's capital from the southern coastal city of Rangoon to the
mountain stronghold of Pyinmana, deep in the country's interior. Perhaps
the regime's oft-stated fear of a U.S. invasion prompted the retreat from
the coast. That would explain press reports that the junta has surrounded
its new capital with land mines. Perhaps the regime is even more afraid of
the ethnically diverse and impoverished students of Rangoon. We can't look
for answers to the United Nations' envoy to Burma. He resigned in January
after failing for nearly two years to gain entry into the country.

Despite the regime's aversion to international attention, Burma generated
international headlines Jan. 11 when the Korean conglomerate Daewoo
announced a substantial gas find off Burma's northwest coast. Media
reports describe the field as "massive," though Daewoo won't know just how
massive until intensive exploration and testing are completed next year.
The company announced that a petroleum consultant, the Ryder Scott Co.,
estimates that the find may produce between 2.9 trillion and 3.5 trillion
cubic feet of gas, the equivalent of about 600 million barrels of crude
oil. Whatever the final numbers, the discovery provides yet another
reminder that Burma has become an important natural-gas provider for
Asia's wealthiest countries.

Just as Iran's energy wealth frustrates U.S. and European efforts to
sanction Tehran, foreign competition for gas contracts will obstruct
international attempts to pressure Burma toward democratic reform. China
has profited time and again by forging commercial deals with states that
are the objects of international scorn, and other energy-dependent Asian
countries (India and South Korea, in particular) don't want China to
monopolize Burma's energy reserves. These states and others will continue
to chase energy deals there, including agreements to build the
infrastructure needed to pipe gas or petroleum directly to their consumers
and industries. Even the United States and European Union have resisted
pressure to ban all investment in the countryso energy firms Unocal and
Total can join in the scramble.

The Burmese junta knows when it approves these deals that it's giving its
Asian neighbors an important stake in the regime's survival. China, a
veto-wielding permanent member of the Security Council, is an especially
useful provider of diplomatic cover. Energy revenues also help finance the
domestic repression that keeps the opposition in check and the generals in
charge.

What else might this new wealth buy? The riches generated by Burma's
natural-gas deposits may provide the junta with enough cash to realize its
long-standing ambition to purchase nuclear technology. In 2002, the
Russian government approved an agreement with Burma to help the regime
build a civilian nuclear reactor. The deal was never consummated,
according to the Russian foreign ministry, because Burma lacked the money
to pay for it. But when Russia's atomic agency announced last October that
talks on the subject had resumed, Western governments reacted with alarm
and dismissed official Burmese claims that the facility is meant only for
medical research and the production of radiopharmaceuticals for cancer
treatment. More worrying still, the junta's long-rumored high-level
contacts with North Korea may well include discussion of the transfer of
nuclear technology.

Maybe the Burmese government believes a nuclear weapon offers the ultimate
insurance against a U.S. invasion. After all, the United States invaded
Iraq, which did not have nuclear weapons, but has not attacked North
Korea, which does. Burma's fear of an American attack tells us more about
the junta's paranoia than about U.S. intentions. But the Burmese generals
cannot have been pleased when President Bush, during last month's State of
the Union address, included Burma on a shortlist of states in which "the
demands of justice and the peace of this world require freedom."

Another reason Burma matters for regional stability is that it adds to the
growing list of irritants in U.S. relations with China. Burma provides
China with the use of a military base on the Indian Ocean. Sino-Burmese
trade grew by more than 10 percent between 2004 and 2005 to more than $1.1
billion. Late last year, China outmaneuvered India for an agreement to buy
6.5 trillion cubic feet of gas. As China's dependence on Burma's energy
grows, we can expect Beijing to help the junta resist international
pressurejust as they have done for authoritarian regimes in Iran, North
Korea, Sudan, and Zimbabwe. (China has invested around $300 million in
Zimbabwe in return for mining concessions and direct supply of gold,
diamonds, chrome, bauxite, and possibly uranium.) That will only add to
Washington's diplomatic frustrations.

The United States and several other countries would like to move Burma
onto the Security Council's formal agenda and pressure the junta into
reform and greater transparency. But the more dependent Burma's neighbors
become on the country's energy resources, the less likely it is that any
international body can force change on this repressive regime. As a
similar scenario unfolds in the diplomatic battle over Iran's nuclear
weapons, Burma's generals will be watching closely from their new mountain
fortress.


____________________________________

February 15, Bangkok Post
Burma, China strengthen bilateral ties – Larry Jagan

General Soe Win, the prime minister of Burma, has arrived in Beijing for
an official four-day visit. The trip was originally scheduled to take
place several months ago but was postponed by the Chinese authorities. "We
expect that this visit will further expand and deepen the traditional
friendship between China and Myanmar [Burma]," the Chinese foreign
ministry spokesman, Kong Quan said in Beijing on the eve of the Burmese
leader's trip.

Gen Soe Win is expected to be given the red carpet treatment. He is
scheduled to meet President Hu Jintao and Premier Wen Jiabao. He will also
have discussions with Foreign Minister Li Zhaoxing. Several trade and
economic agreements will be signed during Gen Soe Win's visit. The trip
was delayed last year because Beijing was not ready then to sign them.

With international sanctions against Burma, Rangoon is increasingly
dependent on its neighbours for trade and political support. "We have good
relations with all our neighbours and that is what is important,
especially China, India and Thailand," Burma's Foreign Minister Nyan Win
recently told the Bangkok Post.

Over the past year China increasingly has emerged as Rangoon's most
important ally, even though there have been tensions between them at
times. There had been significant questions about Burmese corruption
involving major Chinese contracts and construction deals. But recent
important oil deals between Beijing and Rangoon for oil and gas extraction
rights in western Burma seem to have helped mend some problems between the
two countries.

Trade remains high on Gen Soe Win's agenda as the military regime finds
itself in increasing economic difficulties, intensified by the excessively
expensive relocation of the country's administrative and military centre
from Rangoon some 400 kilometres north to Pyinmana.

"The junta is virtually bankrupt and needs Chinese financial support to
help it overcome some of its immediate problems," said a Rangoon-based
Asian diplomat. They are looking for more soft loans, especially to
complete the infrastructural needs of the new capital, he added. Much of
the telecommunications for the new centre, including the satellite and
mobile phone infrastructure, has already been provided by Beijing. China
is not expected to push Burma on its human rights record, but the current
political impasse in Rangoon is likely to be discussed when Gen Soe Win
meet's China's foreign minister. "Human rights will not be discussed when
the Burmese leader meets his Chinese counterpart," according to a Chinese
government official in Beijing.

But Beijing will discuss Burma's political reform programme during the
visit, senior Chinese officials admitted. China is expected to urge
Rangoon to step up its national reconciliation programme and the need for
more political and economic transparency.

China has been quietly disturbed by the lack of progress on the junta's
seven-stage roadmap announced in August 2003 by the then prime minister
Gen Khin Nyunt. Beijing was dismayed by the recent adjournment of the
National Convention until the end of this year.

While China believes political reform is an internal matter for the
Burmese regime, they fear that excessive delays in the national
reconciliation process are only likely to increase instability in Burma.

This is China's greatest concern. They fear social unrest in Burma would
dramatically affect their southern provinces. More than 200,000 Chinese
migrants have crossed into Burma in the past decade, according to senior
Chinese officials. Some western analysts believe there could be as many as
a million Chinese now resident in Burma.

Most of them are there unofficially. They are running small businesses
throughout northern Burma, Mandalay and even Rangoon. Technical experts,
workers and even farmers have migrated across the border in search of
work. Many of the market sellers in the border region, especially in the
border towns like Mongla, are also Chinese.

China's main strategic concerns are to see Burma int roduce some measure
of political reform and boost economic development. The last thing Beijing
needs is thousands of Chinese migrants flooding back across the border,
increasing the number of restless, unemployed Chinese peasants looking for
work and adding to China's growing social and rural unrest. "China's
leaders understand that the Burmese military regime is illegitimate," a
senior Chinese official in Beijing said. "It needs to build a greater
degree of consensus within the country behind it, and develop the economy.
Without that Burma remains unstable and a constant threat to the security
and stability of the region, especially China," he said.

There is no doubt that privately Beijing continues to worry about the lack
of progress towards political reform in Burma. For more than a year now, a
senior political academic from Beijing has been in Rangoon advising the
regime's top generals on various political scenarios.

Although China remains Burma's most consistent supporter when the military
regime is criticised at the UN or other international forums, they have
been increasingly trying to distance themselves from Rangoon. "China is
increasingly circumspect in its defence of Burma, especially at the UN,"
said a western diplomat, who regularly attends the UN sessions in New
York.

"At the General Assembly last year, when the UN special rapporteur on
Burma, Professor Paulo Pinheiro, presented his findings, China reluctantly
defended Rangoon, and simply queried Mr Pinheiro's sources," she said.
They appeared uneasy at being associated with Rangoon's only other
defendants - Cuba, North Korea and Venezuela. Washington has also
signalled its belief that Beijing has private reservations about the
Rangoon regime, which it fears is exporting Aids and drugs into China.
"Chinese officials, while yet to speak publicly about the situation in
Burma, have privately noted their concern, and we are engaged in an active
dialogue with them," US Assistant Secretary of State Christopher Hill -
America's top diplomat for Asian affairs - told Congress last week.

Many other diplomats involved with Burma have also noted China's
ambivalence towards Rangoon. The real issue is whether Beijing will
actively encourage Rangoon to move towards political reform, even if it
does so privately rather than publicly.

"China has a critical role to play in any effort to bring reform and
democracy to Myanmar," Razali Ismail, the Malaysian diplomat who has
recently resigned as the UN secretary-general's special UN envoy after
being denied access to the country for almost two years, recently
reflected. "I should have spent more time trying to convince Beijing that
it was in their interests to be more pro-active with Rangoon," he said.

But Beijing is not convinced it has any real influence with the Burmese
generals, according to Southeast Asian diplomats who have discussed the
issue with senior Chinese officials in the past few months. There is no
doubt that China lost one of its main allies in Burma when Gen Khin Nyunt
and his supporters were arrested and purged at the end of 2004. At the
time China had dubbed him Burma's Deng Xiaoping. Since his fall China has
tried unsuccessfully to find another ally within the regime.

"Their greatest fear now is that Burma's second in command, General Maung
Aye, who is seen as pro-India, may gain in influence," said an Asian
diplomat in Rangoon. "Any suggestion that he may take over from the
country's main ruler, General Than Shwe, sends them into an apoplectic
spin." So strategic priorities, including countering possible Indian
influence in Burma, and economic benefits may count for more in Beijing
than longer-term concerns about the country's potential instability.

____________________________________

February 14, Democratic Voice of Burma
88 Generation Students’ support for NLD’s Union Day Special Statement

Reactions on the NLD’s Union Day Special Statement by renowned 88
Generation Students of Burma

****
Ko Ko Gyi

“The National League for Democracy (NLD) had said in general about the
national reconciliation and dialogue in the past. (But), it had not said
in a concise way like now. As it is saying thus now and it is an offer
that heads to the national reconciliation and it is a political solution
based on the 1990 election. Therefore, as it fits in with our principles,
we support it.”

“In order to solve political difficulties, we are contriving with the
spirit that there could be some damages and losses to us. As I said
earlier, I don’t think they (the generals) will respond to it atrociously.
The reason is – soldiers, rank and file and officers from all levels in
the present army will understand and see that we are facing difficulties.
Before this, there was no positive offer from democracy forces. Now, there
is a concise offer. They are also taking seriously the role of the Tamadaw
(army), but I am not saying how many percentages. If the country changes
peacefully and heads towards democracy, for the transitional period, we
will fully hand over power to the current army government, 100 percents.
The most important thing is the country changes and transforms peacefully.
As it is clear that the offer takes the matter seriously that we hope that
the army government will respond to it with a positive offer. It is also
an offer of the people who were elected by the people in (19)90 election.
As it is a very ‘soft/gentle’ offer, ethnic national forces, the army, the
people of the country who voted should say that this is our cause, we
ourselves should actively involved in this and support the statements
vigorously – I want to urge thus.”

****
Htay Kywe

“The most important thing is – since our releases from long-term
imprisonments, we want our country to develop peacefully. In order to do
that, we need to be able to solve the current political difficulties. Only
then would our country and people be able to stand up with dignity in the
middle of the international community. The main thing is – the unity of
all people involved in the politics within the country – the national
reconciliation. The NLD’s Union Day special statement heads towards the
national reconciliation. As we believe that it is a brave offer, we said
that we support it.”

“It is one method of trying to find a solution for a peaceful transition.”

****
Min Ko Naing

The role of all political prisoners including Daw Aung San Suu Kyi and U
Tin Oo is automatically hooked to their releases. The reason being –
political prisoners are those who are detained for their beliefs.
Therefore, when you are negotiating and discussing for a transitional
period, there should be a chance for those who are being detained for
their beliefs. There should be a chance for them to express and
substantiate their desires. As for those who are to sit on the negotiating
table, there is an important role for those party members who were elected
by the people in (19)90 – I want to memorably urge all, at this moment and
time, to think over seriously this section and substantiate it fully.”