BurmaNet News, February 23, 2007

[Editor]

February 23, 2007 Issue # 3148


INSIDE BURMA
AP: Myanmar's state-run media warns of crackdown after demonstration for
reforms
Mizzima: Reporters released after five-hour detention
AFP: Myanmar market eerily quiet after rare public protest
Mizzima: 88 student lambasts junta for accusing demonstrators
Mizzima: MI detains eight for organising literacy seminar
Irrawaddy: Regime troops increase assaults on Karen
SHAN: UN food agency in Burma: From emergency to protracted operations
AFP: Myanmar's new capital offers small luxuries in total isolation

ON THE BORDER
Global Insights: Forces from Myanmar capture key Indian rebel base

BUSINESS / TRADE
Irrawaddy: India aims for $1 billion trade target with Burma
Xinhua: Pearl auction underway in Myanmar

OPINION / OTHER
Irrawaddy: A dictator’s balancing act

____________________________________
INSIDE BURMA

February 23, Associated Press
Myanmar's state-run media warns of crackdown after demonstration for reforms

Myanmar's state-run media warned on Friday that a rare demonstration a day
earlier had broken the law, and could bring a crackdown against those who
took to the streets demanding lower prices and better education.

Myanmar's military junta tolerates little dissent, and strictly curbs
freedom of assembly and the media.

Only about 25 people took part in Thursday's demonstration one of the
first to challenge the leaders' competence in downtown Yangon, the
country's largest city.

They called for improved health care and education, better pension
benefits and lower prices for food staples. The government subsidizes
items such as rice and cooking oil but not enough to offset rising prices,
protesters said.

The New Light of Myanmar newspaper reported Friday that the protest, held
near a major marketplace, had panicked vendors, shoppers and passers-by,
and was "totally against the law."

"Action might be taken against the group" involved, the newspaper said.
Myanmar's state media closely report the government line.

The 30-minute demonstration ended peacefully. Police took away one
participant, and three Myanmar journalists were detained for several
hours.

The protesters carried placards with slogans such as "Down with consumer
prices," and "24-hour electricity is our cause" a reference to the
shortages and blackouts that often hit parts of Yangon because the
government cannot afford enough oil or other resources to generate
sufficient power.

By targeting economic issues, the demonstration was likely to win the
sympathy of many Yangon residents, who face strained financial
circumstances as incomes fail to keep pace with inflation in what is
already one of Asia's poorest countries.

Previous infrequent public demonstrations in Yangon have usually targeted
the legitimacy of the military government, and have been associated with
the opposition party of detained Nobel laureate Aung San Suu Kyi, or other
political activists.

Myanmar has been under military rule since 1962. The current junta was
installed in 1988 after authorities quashed mass pro-democracy
demonstrations.

General elections were held in 1990, but the military refused to hand over
power after Suu Kyi's National League for Democracy party won a landslide
victory.

____________________________________

February 23, Mizzima News
Reporters released after five-hour detention

Three reporters arrested yesterday by the police in Rangoon were released
after about five hours in detention.

Two local correspondents Myat Thura of the Kyodo news agency, Sint Sint
Aung of Nippon TV and May Thagyan Hein of Myanmar Dhana economic magazine,
were detained in the Aung Tha Pyay police guest house or detention camp in
Kyaikwine following their arrest by the police while they were covering a
demonstration by a group against the military junta.

The police reportedly interrogated the reporters as to how they knew about
the demonstration prior to it taking place.

Meanwhile, two demonstrators Htin Kyaw, a mechanical engineer and the
Myint Shwe are still in detention though Aye Min Win released on yesterday
evening.

About 20 people staged a demonstration against the junta in downtown
former capital demanding it solve the problems which were responsible for
the hardships of the people in their day to day life.

The statement released by the group addressed to Senior General Than Shwe
urged him to solve the problems of soaring inflation leading to rising
prices of essential commodities, children's parents being unable to afford
education, rampant corruption and illegal gambling, the state's apathy
towards basic health care, non-existence of human rights and lack of
freedom of speech.

Moreover, it also wished that military generals and all soldiers including
Than Shwe stay in good health and in wealth.

Although the junta allowed demonstrations against the United States and
the United Kingdom outside their embassies recently, where pro-regime
protestors accused the countries of interfering in domestic politics,
there was a crack down on yesterday's demonstration after 30 minutes of a
silent walk from 30th street to the City Hall with protestors holding
aloft placards.

____________________________________

February 23, Agence France Presse
Myanmar market eerily quiet after rare public protest

Yangon: A normally bustling Yangon market was eerily quiet Friday -- a day
after a group of protesters held a rare demonstration there against
Myanmar's military-run government over economic hardships.

The Theingyi Market is usually thronged with shoppers, with dozens of
vendors outside the market also selling food and goods ranging from
Chinese-made shoes to shampoo.

But the vendors were absent, with just a few customers in the market,
which was open for business, according to an AFP correspondent. No
policemen or plain clothed officials were seen around the market.

"People are cautious after the protest yesterday. That's why we are seeing
few people today," said a taxi driver near the market in downtown Yangon.

A housewife who lives near the market told AFP that the vendors closed
their businesses due to fears of more protests.

On Thursday some 25 people, holding banners calling for lower prices for
basic commodities, more jobs and 24-hour electricity, staged the protest
near the market.

Police detained the 40-year-old male leader, who is still in custody.

They also briefly detained three local journalists, including two working
for Japanese media, who were covering the protest.

Protests are rare in Myanmar, under military rule since 1962, as the junta
cracks down hard on any dissent.

While supporters of Myanmar's detained democracy icon Aung San Suu Kyi
often hold anti-junta rallies demanding her freedom, Thursday's event was
highly unusual as it expressed public outrage over economic woes.

"People are fed up with economic difficulties. Prices for rice,
vegetables, cooking oil and fuel keep rising, but the government is not
doing anything about it," said Aung Naing Oo, a Thai-based analyst on
Myanmar.

"Yesterday's demonstration showed that people's patience was running out,"
he said.

Thursday's demonstrators were members of an organisation called the
Myanmar Development Commit-tee. Some were former members of Aung San Suu
Kyi's political party, the National League for Democracy.

Aung San Suu Kyi, 61, has been under house arrest at her rambling lakeside
home in Yangon for most of the past 17 years.

Despite its rich natural gas and mineral resources, Myanmar is one of the
world's poorest nations and is subject to US and European economic
sanctions because of human rights abuses and the house arrest of Aung San
Suu Kyi.

Decades of economic mismanagement have also worsened living conditions and
the World Health Organisation has ranked Myanmar's healthcare system as
the world's second worst after Sierra Leone.

Myanmar's state media predictably slammed the demonstration, saying it was
aimed at "instigating external anti-government groups and foreign media to
fabricate news about Myanmar."

The protest was to cause "public annoyance and panic.... Such a deliberate
attempt was totally against the law and action might be taken against the
protesters," said the official New Light of Myanmar daily Fri-day.

____________________________________

February 23, Mizzima News
88 student lambasts junta for accusing demonstrators - Ko Dee

An 88 generation student leader in Rangoon today lambasted the junta for
accusing peaceful demonstrators yesterday, of instigating unrest and riots
with a populist motive and to receive rewards from abroad.

Yesterday about 20 people took to the streets in downtown Rangoon
demanding the military junta curb widespread corruption, lower prices of
essential commodity and provide better education and health care .

The authorities, however, cracked down on the demonstrators and arrested
some people including three Burmese reporters.

The state-run New Light of Myanmar today condemned the demonstrators and
warned that the authorities could take action against the group for
inciting public demonstrations, which is against the existing law.

"Their purposeful movement to stir up a riot and their shouting and
carrying placards designed to incite a public demonstration made the
public dislike and disrespect the government and that action might be
taken against the group according to law," the newspaper said.

"While the newspaper said the people supported the demonstration held in
front of the US and British embassies, it condemned people who
demonstrated in the same way yesterday calling it "inciting public
unrest." This proves that the junta is not at all interested in building a
democratic country," said Jimmy, one of the 88 generation student leaders.

"In order to build a democratic nation, in the first place it is the duty
of the rulers, political parties and organisations to reduce fear in the
people. And the second point -- they must help the people make their
demands within the law and should build an open society where people
should be encouraged to speak openly," Jimmy added.

Local correspondents Myat Thura of the Kyodo news agency, Sint Sint Aung
of Nippon TV and May Thagyan Hein of Myanmar Dhana economic magazine, who
were detained by the authorities, were released after five hours in
detention. Authorities also released Aye Min Win, one of the
demonstrators, yesterday.

However, two demonstrators, Htin Kyaw and Myint Shwe, continued to be
detained, sources in Rangoon said.

Meanwhile, the 88 generation students' "open heart" letter campaign, which
has gained momentum, is coping with restrictions by the authorities,
organizers told Mizzima.

"In areas like Insein and Aung San township, the police and the USDA
[Union Solidarity and Development Association] members withheld the
letters from local residents saying that it could be letter bombs. They
took away about 20 letters," said Jimmy.

He said, the letter campaign has resulted in their receiving numerous
letters from people across the country especially from central Burma.
While the letters are from all class of people, the students have received
the highest number of letters from retired ex-servicemen, Ko Jimmy said.

Jimmy added that they would review the letter campaign, which started on
January 4, and decide whether or not to continue in March.

____________________________________

February 23, Mizzima News
MI detains eight for organising literacy seminar - Nem Davies

The military authorities are still detaining eight people who had
organised a pubic literacy seminar in Paungtalei town without framing
charges for over two weeks now.

The eight members of the organising committee were arrested by military
intelligence after a seminar in a Buddhist monastery in Paungtalei, Bago
division on February 8. Writer Ko Tar and cartoonist Orpikweh were
addressing the audience at the seminar.

Six people including Min Kyi and Myint Oo were arrested by military
intelligence just two hours after the seminar concluded and two more
people Maw Si and Naing Oo (a) Tote Gyi were picked later.

They are all in detention in Minkyitaung military intelligence camp near
Pyi. According to politicians in Rangoon they were arrested under the
Emergency Provision Act 5J.

Some reports suggested that the detainees were sentenced to three months
in prison but Myint Thein, the spokesperson of the opposition National
League for Democracy, who is monitoring the situation, could not confirm
this.

'So far as I know they have not been sentenced yet. They are currently
being detained in a military security camp called Sitlone in Mingyitaung',
Myint Thein said.

Moreover, he rejected the local Union Solidarity Development Association's
accusation that the detainees are members of NLD.

"The leading organising committee members of that literacy seminar Maw Si,
Naing Oo are not members of the NLD," he said.

The authorities denied issuing permission for the literacy seminar which
was supposed to be held in Paukkhaung as usual and it was shifted to
Paungtalei next to Paukkhaung.

"It is proof that there are no human rights in our country. There should
be the right to speak and the right to organize such events. Literature
opens the eyes of people. It won't work if they (military) see everything
from the security point of view," he added.

____________________________________

February 23, Irrawaddy
Regime troops increase assaults on Karen


The Burmese military government has stepped up its military assault on
Karen communities in eastern Burma, according to latest reports by the
Free Burma Rangers.

After offensives throughout the rainy season, involving more than 50
battalions, the Burmese army was now stepping up its military assaults in
the region, the FBR said in a report on the deteriorating situation.

Six major units were being rotated—“Attacks against civilians throughout
northern Karen State are expected to continue when the new units are in
place,” said the FBR report.

Since early 2006, more than 30 new Burma Army camps have been built and 76
civilians, including women and children, have been killed in the army
offensives.

More than 2,000 villagers have been forced to work for the Burma Army
without compensation and over 100 people been use as human shields.

More than 2,000 prisoners have been used as army porters and 265 of them
had been killed, the FBR report said. Incidents included the rape of a
35-year-old woman by Burmese soldiers in late January in Bilin Township,
Thaton District.

The report said that over 25,000 people had been displaced in eastern
Burma since early 2006.  The areas where the offensives are occurring
include Taungoo District, Nyaunglebin District, Papun District and Thaton
District.

____________________________________

February 22, Shan Herald Agency for News
UN food agency in Burma: From emergency to protracted operations

The United Nations World Food Programme (WFP) has upgraded its food
assistance that began in 2004 to former poppy farmers in Shan State from
emergency operations to protracted relief and recovery operations
beginning 2007, according to a copy of its project proposal with S.H.A.N.

The three-year operation will be targeting 726,000 people whose
livelihoods have been affected by the poppy ban. "WFP's April 2006
evaluation mission indicated that food was a major requirement for
vulnerable families and recommended a shift from relief to recovery/
rehabilitation to address the needs of the targeted population," said the
document.

The area most severely hit by the opium ban is in Wa territory that was
declared opium free in June 2005. Before the year, the 6,000 square mile
area in the Sino-Burma border was reputed to be the largest producer of
opium in Burma.

However, the response to the Wa's "supreme sacrifice," as one of its top
leaders calls the ban on its more than a century old opium production has
not been encouraging, according to a Wa administrative officer in
Pangkham, as Panghsang is officially known. "We had expected that
assistance would rush in," he said in August. "But what we are getting is
only a tenth of what we need."

The UN agencies meanwhile have blamed the 7-page guideline on UN and
international humanitarian agencies issued by Naypyidaw last February. The
restrictions, said U Soe Tha, Minister for National Planning and Economic
Development to AFP, were to ensure "no unpleasant incidents" happen to
them. "Even we ourselves have to take security precautions while
traveling," he was quoted as saying.

The WFP however rejected Naypyidaw's "concern" by saying, "Myanmar is
classified as security phase I by the United Nations Department of Safety
and Security (UNDSS). There have been no threats to United Nations staff
to date; the findings of WFP's threat assessment missions in February 2005
did not indicate major security threats."

Apart from Shan State , the areas targeted by the WFP include Northern
Rakhine (Arakan) State, Magwe division, Chin State and Kachin State ,
totaling 1.6 million people, of whom 1.18 million are said to be children
of school-going age.

The Ethnic Nationalities Council (ENC) that claims to speak for the
non-Burman ethnic states has welcomed humanitarian assistance from the
international community.

____________________________________

February 23, Agence France Presse
Myanmar's new capital offers small luxuries in total isolation - Hla Hla Htay

Naypyidaw: Myanmar's generals call their new administrative capital "the
abode of kings" and in keeping with the name the year-old town of
Naypyidaw offers many luxuries that are unimaginable elsewhere in the
country.

Here the electricity runs 24 hours a day, while in Yangon daily blackouts
last up to six hours. Government workers here can buy new condos with
official assistance, something few could dream of before the move.

Traffic moves easily down freshly paved concrete roads, and the brightly
coloured new buildings give Naypyidaw the feeling of a mountain retreat
rather than a military bunker.

But those benefits come at a steep personal cost, because the tens of
thousands of people who are believed to now live in this remote mountain
town in the jungles of central Myanmar must give up almost all contact
with the outside world.

It's an arduous 10-hour drive to cover the 400 kilometres (250 miles)
between Yangon and Naypyidaw, so weekend visits for the relocated
bureaucrats to visit family and friends -- or vice versa -- are out of the
question.

Even calls home are difficult because Naypyidaw was intentionally designed
without any cell phone coverage and has no plans to introduce it. The
military says this is to guarantee security for the senior officials
living here.

"We have no plans for mobile phones because of security reasons. We use
walkie-talkies here," said a senior military official who lives in the new
city.

Private telephone lines are not allowed inside the apartments allocated to
most government employees, so they are forced to call home from the few
public phones located in the lobbies of their buildings.

The nearby town of Pyinmana, which was a simple logging centre until
Naypyidaw sprang up, remains largely undeveloped and offers little in the
way of communication.

"I cannot use my mobile here, even in Pyinmana. We can use the land line
in our offices whenever we need to talk to our families, but we can't use
those phones to call home every day," said a junior official in the health
ministry, adding: "We feel lonely here."

When the military government made its surprise announcement early on
November 7, 2005 that it was moving the capital, civil servants were told
they would not be permitted to take their spouses or children along when
they moved.

At the time, Naypyidaw had no schools or clinics -- not even a grocery
store or market.
Life has slowly improved as new buildings and facilities have opened, and
two months ago the junta lifted the ban on families though many are still
reluctant to take advantage of the eased rules, mostly be-cause of
concerns about the standard of schooling available for their children.
The compound that houses Myanmar's military headquarters remains secluded
and strictly off-limits to outsiders, but the zones including government
offices and residences have begun to resemble functioning neighbourhoods.

"Some lower-level staffers want to move there because they can own an
apartment, which they can only dream about in Yangon," an employee of the
telecommunication ministry in Yangon said.

"But not many family members moved there because they worry for children's
education," she said. "I don't want to move there, because I wouldn't be
able to call my family when I get homesick."

Businessmen and diplomats say the lack of telephone service makes it
impossible to get any kind of work done in Naypyidaw.

"We lose all our communication there. We don't want to make business calls
from government offices. It's always a problem for us," said one
businessman who goes to regular meetings in Naypyidaw. "I can't stay there
for very long."

The military has offered embassies and UN agencies five acres (two
hectares) of land each to build new missions here starting next year, but
so far no one has taken up the offer.

____________________________________
ON THE BORDER

February 23, Global Insights
Forces from Myanmar capture key Indian rebel base - Elizabeth Mills

Forces from Myanmar have captured a rebel base run by the Indian
separatist group, the National Socialist Council of Nagaland-Khaplang
(NSCN-K).

The group admitted to the loss of its base, which is reportedly near the
village of Chuiyang Noknu in Myanmar s eastern Sagaing Division. Myanmar
has recently started a new offensive against Indian separatists operating
out of its border areas, concentrating on the Sagaing Division.

 It appears to have taken a week to take the rebel base, with at least 12
rebels killed along with an unknown number of soldiers.

Significance: Military operations have increased as a result of Indian
pressure, with India keen to see the porous border areas it has with
Myanmar, Bhutan and Bangladesh sealed to stop rebels training and hiding
in them.

This has led to increased bilateral relations with Myanmar in particular,
with India controversially supplying Myanmar s ruling junta with military
equipment and training in return for its co-operation.

Rights groups have argued that the junta uses these supplies against
ethnic groups within its borders. Notably, the NSCN-K has a ceasefire
agreement with the government, although the loss of its base and myriad
other incidents highlight that the group remains active.

_____________________________________
BUSINESS / TRADE

February 23, Irrawaddy
India aims for $1 billion trade target with Burma - William Boot

India is Burma’s second-largest export market and ranks seventh as a
source of imports into Burma. This added up to $577 million in the
financial year 2004-2005, but the Indian Chamber of Commerce has set a
target of almost double that figure to $1 billion for the current
2006-2007 year.

But the ICC admits that the “full potential of bilateral trade faces
obstacles—not least in transport, banking and infrastructure. The ICC
believes the potential includes greater trade in agriculture, textiles,
telecommunications and oil and gas.

However, the Burmese regime is more interested in pursuing business in the
fields of tourism and technology, according to Indian sources in Bangkok.

New Delhi recognizes the two sides will have to walk faster before they
can start running: It is providing $35 million in “assistance” to improve
Burmese infrastructure, such as roads, railways and telephone systems.

Meanwhile, Burmese delegates to an India-Burma conference in Kolkata on
February 15, called Trade and Commerce: Challenges and Prospects,
suggested that bilateral trade be costed in Euros instead of US dollars.

____________________________________

February 23, Xinhua General News Service
Pearl auction underway in Myanmar

Yangon: A three-day pearl auction, sponsored by the state-run Myanmar
Pearl Enterprise (MPE), is underway here, attracting dozens of foreign
pearl traders.

A total of 515 pearl lots and 94,319 pearls weighing 56,188.55 mommis are
being sold through tender system at the Myanmar Pearl Auction-2007 which
began on Thursday, said sources with the MPE under the Ministry of Mines.

Meanwhile, Myanmar has introduced some measures to boost pearl sale,
outlining them as increasing the size of pearls cultured by the
enterprise, boosting pearl output in Myanmar waters and fixing reason-able
prices for the pearls to attract foreign merchants.

According to official statistics, under an oyster breeding program,
Myanmar produced nearly 400,000 units (about 200,000 mommis) of cultured
pearls in 2006, 30 percent up from 2005.

Oysters are bred along Myanmar's southern coast mainly on Pearl Island,
Mali Island and Shwe Island.

Myanmar, which specializes in producing South Sea Pearls, possesses a
total pearl production area of 25,600 square- kilometers. The country
started yielding pearls in 1956.

Cultured pearl production, which is undertaken at farms in Myeik
Archipelago in southern Tanintharyi division, has been up sharply since
1992 when the government launched a campaign to encourage more domestic
and foreign investment in the sector.

Of the six pearl producers in the country, there are Myanmar- foreign
joint ventures involving companies from Japan, Australia and Thailand. Of
them, the Myanmar-Japan partnership represents the biggest producer with
an investment of about 8.47 million U.S. dollars, according to the MPE.

Pearl lots, along with locally-produced quality gems, jade and jewelry,
are sold at the country's regular gems emporiums, which are held up to
three times a year in recent years through a sale system ranging from
sealed tender to competitive bidding.

_____________________________________
OPINION / OTHER

February 23, Irrawaddy
A dictator’s balancing act - Aung Zaw

Burma’s generals are quoted in official newspapers as claiming they want
to build a modern and developed nation with “flourishing disciplined
democracy.” But consider the true picture


Burma’s prisons still incarcerate more than 1,000 political prisoners,
according to Amnesty International. Burma’s most famous political
prisoner, Aung San Suu Kyi, remains under house arrest, and the regime
recently announced that her release date hasn’t been decided yet.

Residents in many parts of Rangoon still live in semi-darkness as the
government can only provide electricity six hours a day. Roads are in an
appalling state, and those who have to use them jokingly say it’s like
driving on the moon.

It doesn’t take economists or political scientists to confirm that Burma
is in a state of limbo. The slowdown is clear for all to see.

Some, including Burmese political observers, believe the slowdown might
lead the country and its government to a complete halt. Their fears are
compounded by rumors of a power struggle among top leaders, about Snr-Gen
Than Shwe’s health and his hesitant departure from the political scene.

Persistent rumors indicate that Than Shwe, who is in his late 70s, wants
to relinquish the post in which he has served so long, but might not want
to vacate the throne for Vice Snr-Gen Maung Aye. Than Shwe became
commander in chief of the armed forces and chairman of the ruling junta,
the State Peace and Development Council, in 1991.

Pundits also point out that Than Shwe may also be worried about his family
business and the personal safety of his family members. His desire to
leave office may, therefore, face the opposition of his wife, Kyaing
Kyaing.

Kyaing Kyaing, who has five daughters, two sons and grandsons, is said to
call the shots in the family and is considered to wield considerable
influence within its circle. Her sons are involved in business, and her
eldest grandson, a favorite of Than Shwe, is currently studying in
Singapore.

It’s likely, therefore, that Than Shwe may remain in power indefinitely.
But that possibility didn’t prevent his likely successor, Gen Thura Shwe
Mann, from making a move after Than Shwe received medical treatment in
Singapore in January.
Shwe Mann, who is attached to the Defense Ministry, appeared at several
state functions, receiving foreign visitors and making an official visit
to India.

After graduating from the Defense Services Academy, Intake 11, in 1969,
Shwe Mann earned the honorific title "Thura" for his bravery in fighting
the Karen National Liberation Army in 1989. He continued his studies at
the National Defense Institute, then joined the Ministry of Defense in
2001, becoming joint chief-of-staff. In 2003, he was promoted to general.

Shwe Mann was rarely seen in public, but is known to be Than Shwe’s
favored choice to lead the armed forces when, or if, he retires. After
being given a top job at the Defense Ministry, 59-year-old Shwe Mann kept
in the shadows for many years. Than Shwe encouraged this secretiveness,
keeping foreign and Burmese observers guessing. It’s likely, though, that
the top job within the armed forces is being reserved for Shwe Mann, who
has been running day-to-day affairs at the Defense Ministry.

Deputy Snr-Gen Maung Aye, army commander-in-chief and one of the two
remaining members of the ruling council that staged the bloody coup in
1988, may not ready to embrace Shwe Mann, however.

Recent rumors circulating among political observers say that Shwe Mann and
Maung Aye may be at loggerheads. Maung Aye, a former northern commander
who graduated from DSA Intake 1, played a pivotal role in eliminating
former Prime Minister Gen Khin Nyunt and his once powerful intelligence
apparatus in 2004. The two had been locked in a power struggle for many
years, but finally Khin Nyunt lost and was given a 44-year prison sentence
for insubordination and corruption. He is now under house arrest.

The Burmese army normally resists the advance of an intelligence chief to
its top post, but Khin Nyunt was an exception since he had the blessing of
the late dictator Gen Ne Win, who was seen as godfather within the armed
forces until the 1990s. If there is indeed a serious rift at the top
between Maung Aye and Shwe Mann, it will therefore pose a real threat to
the unity of the armed forces. An intervention by Than Shwe can be
expected soon.

Than Shwe looked healthy enough at the Union Day ceremony on February 12,
although his absence at the Independence Day observances on January 4
fuelled speculation that he may be dying of cancer.

As things stand at the moment, even if Than Shwe wants to leave office he
may be forced to make a delicate and difficult decision to balance the
power between powerful generals, as well as clearing it with his wife and
ensuring the safety of their children. He must still be clever enough to
realize that if he fails in this balancing trick the predictions of the
pessimists will come true and there will be a dogfight.