BurmaNet News, June 20, 2007

[Editor]

June 20, 2007 Issue # 3230

INSIDE BURMA
Mizzima News: Junta threatens and forces NLD member to turn informer
Irrawaddy: Rail tickets run scarce in Rangoon
Narinjara News: Two western battalions march east to battle Karen
Mizzima News: Mother and sister of solo protester also arrested
DVB: ICRC to close Taunggyi office

ON THE BORDER
Irrawaddy: Refugees yearn to return to a free, democratic Burma
NMG: SSA-s decides to expand army

BUSINESS / TRADE
Irrawaddy: Juggling business suitors could hurt Burma’s bottom line

DRUGS
SHAN: Drug fugitives return

INTERNATIONAL
AP: Burma's UN aide warns of looming humanitarian crisis
Mizzima News: Gambari to meet with U.S. leaders
VOA: U.S. campaign hopes celebrities can help Burma

OPINION / OTHER
Mizzima News: UN tries to revive its Burma strategy - Larry Jagan
The Statesman (India): Why is Suu Kyi still under arrest?
Irrawaddy: Conflicting interests impede Burma’s democratization -
Nehginpao Kipgen

____________________________________
INSIDE BURMA

June 20, Mizzima News
Junta threatens and forces NLD member to turn informer

In blatant disregard for the Opposition in Burma, a member of the main
political party – the National League for Democracy – in central Burma has
been threatened and forced to work as an informer for the military junta.

Myint Soe, a member of NLD organizing committee in Pyin Oo Lwin town,
about 40 miles east of Burma's second largest city Mandalay, told Mizzima
that his colleague Ko Win Bo, who resides in Naung Kham village, was
summoned by the authorities on June 17. He was ordered to close his shop
selling cigarettes.

The village council told Ko Win Bo to provide information about party
activities and act as an informer for them in exchange for allowing him to
continue running his shop on which his livelihood depends, Myint Soe said.

"They [authorities] told him bluntly to work as an informer for them. They
made it clear that if he acts as an informer they will consider providing
other remuneration to him. But Ko Win Bo flatly refused their offer,"
Myint Soe said.

Myint Soe added that the authorities threatened to close down Ko Win Bo's
shop in order to pressurize him to work as an informer to provide minutes
of NLD meetings and their plans and activities.

Earlier this month, authorities in Thar Yar Kone village in Pyin Oo Lwin
Township threatened an NLD youth Nay Myo Aung and forced him to resign
from the party, Myint Soe added.

According to Myint Soe, a group of people comprising members of the
village council, Union Solidarity and Development Association, local
police and Swan Arr Shin, people's militia, visited Nay Myo Aung's
residence on June 11 and forced him to resign from the party.

____________________________________

June 20, Irrawaddy
Rail tickets run scarce in Rangoon - Khun Sam

Overcrowding and inadequate transportation services have made it difficult
for residents in Rangoon to get railway tickets to Mandalay and areas of
northern Burma, according to sources in the former capital.

Some passengers have been queuing for tickets at the Rangoon train station
as early as 2 a.m., even though the ticket office doesn’t open until 6
a.m., sources said. Others sleep at the station or nearby in an attempt to
beat the crowds.

An official at the Rangoon train station said there are currently four
trains with service between Rangoon and Mandalay. Three depart in the
morning and a fourth departs at 12:45 p.m.

The official told The Irrawaddy o­n Wednesday that tickets can be
purchased o­ne day in advance for regular class, at a price of 1,550 kyat
(US $1.2), and three days in advance for first class, which cost 3,090
kyat ($2.4).

The difficulty in getting tickets has driven many to the black market.
“Everyday hundreds of people queue for up to two or three hours before the
office opens,” said o­ne Rangoon resident who travels frequently to
Mandalay. “I can’t always get a regular ticket, so I simply pay 7,000 kyat
($ 5.5) for upper class. “But you have to deal with a good source.”

Evening rail service to Mandalay was suspended last year after Burma’s
ruling junta announced its relocation of the capital to Naypyidaw, about
320 miles north of Rangoon.

Sources say that canceling the night train has made it difficult for
passengers to get tickets o­n the early trains, and many potential
passengers have begun to take buses in recent months.

“Without the evening train, service is more crowded,” another source in
Rangoon said. “Last Monday, I stood in line at 4 a.m. for a ticket, but
there were none available. So, I took a bus for 10,000 kyat ($8).”

Burma’s train service is unreliable and slow. The steam-powered engines
run o­n old and narrow tracks, in some cases dating back to the days of
British colonial rule.

The country’s military government launched five new Rail routes last year
and a sixth in April 2007, but all were direct routes between Naypyidaw
and other cities.

____________________________________

June 19, Narinjara News
Two western battalions march east to battle Karen

Two battalions from the western border of Burma went marching eastward in
the second week of June to wage battles with Karen rebels, reports a
source close to the army.

Light Infantry Battalion LIB 289 based in Pelatwa, southern Chin State,
began its march to the eastern border from its base on 15 June, while LIB
380 based in Minbya had already left its base for Karen State on 10 June.

The anonymous source said that in LIB 380 there are nearly 170 armed
forces, with 10 army officers. LIB 289 has 108 soldiers and 8 army
officers.

"It is for reinforcement for the eastern front line waging war with Karen
rebels," said the source.

The two battalions passed a few days ago through the town of Taungup, the
gateway to Burma proper at the foot of Arakan Roma.

Burmese military authorities have often dispatched troops from Arakan
State to eastern Burma in order to wage war against the Karen and Shan
rebels that are fighting for self-determination and equal rights from the
Burmese government.

As Arakan has not had any armed insurgencies in recent years, many army
battalions based in Arakan State are now on the eastern frontlines waging
war against Karen and Shan rebels.

____________________________________

June 20, Mizzima News
Mother and sister of solo protester also arrested - Nyein Chan

The mother and a sister of a solo protester who was arrested in Taung Goat
in Arakan State yesterday morning were also detained by the police a few
hours later.

Balagyi (a) Maung Kyaw Naing protested against the ruling military
government on the 62nd birthday of opposition leader Daw Aung San Suu Kyi,
demanding a solution to the severe inflation rate and the creation of jobs
for the unemployed. After demonstrating for half an hour he was arrested
by three policemen.

A neighbor told Mizzima that his mother and sister, Daw Thaung aged 49
years and 23-year old Ma Khin Aye, were arrested at their home the same
evening.

"They haven't been back home yet and we don't know why", she told Mizzima.

Relatives have yet to learn where the detainees are.

____________________________________

June 20, Democratic Voice of Burma
ICRC to close Taunggyi office

The International Committee of the Red Cross said today they were
preparing to close another of it remaining offices in Burma by the end of
this month.

Thierry Ribaux, the ICRC’s deputy head of delegation in Burma, told DVB
that organisation’s field office in Taungyi was in the process of being
shut down. In March, the ICRC announced that its Keng Tung and Moulmein
offices would close to due government restrictions on their activities.

“It’s a decision by the ICRC taken in the same line as when we had to
close the Keng Tung and Moulmein [offices] . . . because we are not in a
position to continue our activities on the field and these offices do not
make sense any longer,” Ribaux said.

In December 2005, the Burmese military stopped allowing the ICRC’s highly
regarded prison visits and in October lat year, the State Peace and
Development Council ordered the organisation to temporarily close down all
their field offices—Taungyi, Moulmein, Hpa-an, Mandalay and Keng Tung.

Their offices were later given permission to reopen, but many of the
activities they had previously carried out were not allowed to continue.
The ICRC has said that the government’s increased restrictions on their
operations have rendered them unable to perform much of their duties.

But the ICRC has remained adamant that it is not planning to withdraw from
Burma and Ribaux said there were currently no plans to close the remaining
Rangoon, Mandalay and Hpa-an.

____________________________________
ON THE BORDER

June 20, Irrawaddy
Refugees yearn to return to a free, democratic Burma - Violet Cho / Saw
Yan Naing

Living in the refugee camp is like being a bird in a cage,” said Lay Moo,
o­ne of more than 2,000 people commemorating World Refugee Day o­n
Wednesday at Mae La refugee camp, near Mae Sot, o­n Thailand’s border with
Burma.

The 21-year-old refugee, who has spent 17 years in the camp, added: “I
used to think about studying in university to become a doctor. But I can’t
find any opportunity.”

He and some young companions displayed a banner reading: “We Want Justice
in Burma, We Want to Go Home.”

“I feel frustrated when I think about my future,” Lay Moo said. “I had
expectations that I wanted to come true. But I’ve given them up.”

Burmese refugees number more than 700,000, according to a 2006 survey by
the US Committee for Refugees. Worldwide there are 35 million refugees.
Burmese are the largest group in Southeast Asia.

Some 148,000 ethnic refugees from Burma are currently living in nine camps
along the Thai-Burmese border. Most fled to escape hostilities in their
homeland. An estimated o­ne million internally displaced persons live
under appalling conditions o­n the Burmese side of the border, according
to the Thailand Burma Border Consortium.

Many young refugees turn to drugs because of the hopelessness of their
situation, according to a leader of the Karen Student Network Group, Poe
Eh, who is also a refugee. Lay Moo admitted that he had turned to drugs to
alleviate his depression.

Poe Eh said restrictions o­n travel, limited educational possibilities and
uncertainty about their future combined to make young refugees resort to
taking drugs.

Si Si, another young refugee in Umpiem Mai camp, near Mae Sot, confirmed
that conditions within the camps were not good. “The rules and regulations
of the camp are restrictive, and we are not allowed to go out.

“Even though I have finished high school there’s no work for me. I want to
continue my studies but I can’t find any opportunity. So I get mixed up
and depressed.”

An entire Karen generation has grown up in Thailand’s border refugee camps
in the past 20 years. Newcomers constantly arrive, fleeing the o­ngoing
military offensives in Karen State. Around 27,000 Karen civilians have
been displaced because of o­nslaughts by the Burmese army in Karen State
since November last year, according to the New York-based Human Rights
Watch.

A report released in 2000 by the Shan Human Rights Foundation highlighted
the plight of more than 100,000 ethnic Shan refugees in Thailand. Unlike
the Karen and Karenni refugees from Burma, the ethnic Shan are not
recognized as refugees and there are no camps for them o­n Thailand’s
border with Shan State. The Shan refugees have therefore been forced to
survive as illegal migrant workers in Thailand.

The Burmese military regime is continuing to enforce its massive
relocation program in central Shan State, displacing more than 300,000
people since 1996, and causing large numbers of Shan refugees to continue
to flee to Thailand, the SHRF reported.

Many other Burmese people have left to seek work in Thailand, Malaysia and
Indonesia, despite official crackdowns o­n illegal migrant workers.

Lay Moo and many like him harbor a hope to return some day to a free and
democratic Burma. “We want to go back to our home country when it has
total freedom. Freedom to return, not o­nly for the Karen people, but for
all Burmese refugees.”

____________________________________

June 19, Network Media Group
SSA-s decides to expand army

The Shan State Army- south (SSA-s) has decided to strengthen and expand
its armed force. The decision was taken at its bi-annual meeting early
this week. At the meeting, the SSA-s decided that it would keep trying for
a dialogue with the SPDC and at the same time would expand its forces.

The decision follows a two-day meeting held at the SSA-s headquarters in
Loi Tai Lang from June 14.

Lt. Sai San Mueng, an assistance spokesperson of SSA-s, said "it is
related to military matters. We have to get organized on our side.
However, we will try to fall back on political strategies to solve
political problems. If we cannot solve the problems politically, we will
solve it by military methods which will be the final method."

The meeting reviewed matters over the last six months. It was decided that
apart from expanding its military strength SSA-s would try to negotiate
with SPDC politically. It would also try to unite the ethnic groups.

Col. Yut Serk, the chairman of RCSS (Restoration Council of Shan State )
and the leader of SSA-s political wing, Vice-chairman, SSA-s commander in
chief, committee members and representatives of other departments attended
the meeting.

A dialogue between the SPDC and SSA-s failed because the SPDC's delegation
did not turn up on May 23.

The SSA-s was set up in 1996 after the Mueng Tai Army, led by Khun Sa,
surrendered to the Burmese military regime.

____________________________________
BUSINESS / TRADE

June 20, Irrawaddy
Juggling business suitors could hurt Burma’s bottom line - William Boot

Burma is in danger of losing out in burgeoning India’s “Look East”
economic growth plan because of a blighted common border, the military
junta’s courtship of China and clear signals that New Delhi has mastered
the game of leapfrog.

India has made no secret of its interest in improving trade relations and
communications with Burma as a gateway to the rest of the 10-nation Asean
market of 500 million people. But Naypyidaw’s apparent preference to sell
the contents of the huge offshore Shwe gas field to the Chinese instead of
India “could well sour relations to the point where the Indians look
eastwards elsewhere,” said a commercial analyst at a Western embassy in
Bangkok.

“While Burma’s generals dither, New Delhi is forging closer ties with
Malaysia, Singapore, and especially Thailand,” said the analyst, speaking
o­n condition of anonymity.

These countries have large ethnic Indian minorities, mostly involved in
business.
India’s External Affairs Minister Pranab Mukherjee, o­n a rare visit to
northeast India last weekend to discuss that region’s much-needed
development, said in Shillong, the capital of  Meghalaya State: “Geography
is opportunity and the very geographical location of the [Indian]
northeast makes it the doorway to Southeast and East Asia and vice versa—a
doorway for these economies into India.”

India’s o­nly direct land trade link with Burma—via its underdeveloped
Manipur State at the Moreh-Tamu border point—is festering because of
frequent border closures through ethnic unrest, military curfews and
corruption.

“We need to urgently reduce transaction costs through a series of
measures, including simplification of border trade procedures and further
improve physical connectivity,” Mukherjee was quoted by Calcutta’s The
Statesman newspaper as saying.

India hopes to finance road, rail and river transport links with and
through Burma. Perhaps the most ambitious idea is a US $100 million scheme
to connect some of India’s landlocked northeast region with the sea via
the Kaladan River and the Burmese port of Sittwe. Much of this money was
earmarked for port infrastructure improvements to handle cargo moving up
and down the Kaladan in and out of India’s Mizoram State.

But the likelihood that the junta has succumbed to political pressure from
Beijing to sell to China most, if not all, of the 200 billion cubic meters
of verified recoverable gas in two blocks of the Shwe field near Sittwe
could sour this plan, say energy analysts.

“It is difficult to imagine New Delhi footing the bill for port
redevelopment if their rivals the Chinese are going to move in to build a
transfer terminal from Shwe to pipe gas up to Yunnan,” said regional
energy commodities analyst Sar Watana in Bangkok.

“It is significant that India’s oil companies have just announced major
plans to conduct exploratory drillings in four northeast states [Mizoram,
Tripura, Nagaland and Assam]. Small deposits of oil have been found before
and if there is a major gas find the Indians can dispense with parlaying
for Burma’s reserves,” Sar Watana said.

Two major Indian state petroleum companies—Gas Authority of India Limited
and the Oil and Natural Gas Corporation—have a combined 30 percent stake
in the development of the Shwe field along with South Korea’s Daewoo, but
they hinted earlier this month that they may review their investments in
Burma.

Directly after the Shillong conference, Mukherjee leapfrogged Burma and
flew to Indonesia to discuss trade ties. For two days this week he has
also been in Singapore o­n a similar mission. Mukherjee’s Singapore visit
will be followed up by the establishment in the pivotal Asean city-state
of a permanent India Business Forum, backed by the Confederation of Indian
Industry, which will act as a conduit for business.

Next week, Thailand’s Prime Minister Surayud Chulanont leads a large trade
delegation to New Delhi. The Thais hope to wrap up a free trade agreement
with India, which will see trade offices opening in both New Delhi and
Calcutta.

An FTA is expected to lead to annual trade between the two countries
topping $3 billion a year. India’s trade with Burma for the financial year
that ended last March was o­nly $895 million, behind Thailand, China and
Singapore. The Indian Chamber of Commerce had set a target of at least $1
billion.

The potential of awakening economic giant India’s new thrust
eastwards—whether through, around or over Burma—is well summed up by a
commentary in The Jakarta Post this week marking Mukherjee’s Indonesia
visit: “With its booming information technology industry, pharmaceuticals,
outsourcing and manufacturing sectors, strong services as well as a
spending-hungry middle class, our maritime neighbor [India] should emerge
as an attractive place for our businesses to make money.

“And yet, we are still favoring China more than India in terms of
business. As proof, we have many direct flights to a number of Chinese
cities, but we don't have any with India.”

It’s an observation the Burmese junta might do well to heed—or ignore to
their country’s considerable loss.


____________________________________
DRUGS

June 20, Shan Herald Agency for News
Drug fugitives return

Following Bangkok's plan to re-survey and issue new identity cards for
non-citizen residents since April, hundreds of ethnic Chinese and
hilltribe people have been coming across the border to receive new
identities, according to both civilian and official sources.

Among them are family members of drug suspects who had taken refuge in
Burmese territory since an all-out war on drugs was declared by the former
prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra on 1 February 2003.

Reliable sources told S.H.A.N. at that time that the town of Nakawngmu, 29
miles north of Nong Ook, the village on the Chiangmai-Shan State border,
alone had been host to 104 fugitive families.

According to Yang Chaoching, an associate of druglord Wei Hsuehkang, at
least 65 families slipped across the border before 8 June, said a Nong Ook
resident.

Some 2,500 were said to have been killed extra-judicially during the
height of the anti-drug campaign.

____________________________________
INTERNATIONAL

June 20, Associated Press
Burma's UN aide warns of looming humanitarian crisis - Edith M Lederer

The UN humanitarian coordinator warned of a looming humanitarian crisis in
Burma unless efforts are stepped up to tackle acute poverty, AIDS, malaria
and tuberculosis.

"I think there is definitely a need for scaling up the humanitarian
response," Charles Petrie, who also heads the UN Development Program in
the country, said Tuesday.

Since he arrived in 2003, Petrie said, the United Nations has been able
"to start addressing some very difficult issues" with the country’s
military government including trafficking, forced labor, child soldiers
and destigmatizing HIV/AIDS.

The United Nations is concerned, however, about some specific areas of
"acute humanitarian need," he said.

"Basically, the areas are in the health sector—in terms of addressing the
three major diseases of HIV/AIDS, malaria and TB," Petrie said. "We are
seeing evolutions of these three diseases that is very worrying."

The UN is also concerned "that a significant percentage of population has
great difficulty sustaining themselves—earning their livelihoods," he
said.

UNDP, with a staff of more than 1,500, started out operating in 24
townships and has now expanded to 57 townships. Under a restrictive
mandate from the UNDP board, its assistance must be focused at the
grass-roots level, particularly in the areas of primary health care,
environment, HIV/AIDS, training and education and food security.

"We are seeing greater internal migration and fragmentation of communities
and even families." Petrie said, “Our concern is that as this evolves over
time, if there isn't an effort to try to address the three diseases,
address the issues of acute poverty that are emerging—that it is pushing
the situation towards a serious humanitarian crisis."

He said there are areas of chronic malnutrition, and in western Burma
there are more than the normal number of cases of severe malnutrition in
children under 5.

"We need resources from outside," Petrie said.

Earlier this year, Southeast Asian leaders offered to help the military
government take care of villagers displaced by an insurgency and fight
diseases.

____________________________________

June 20, Mizzima News
Gambari to meet with U.S. leaders - Christopher Smith

U.N. special envoy to Burma, Ibrahim Gambari, will meet with U.S.
political leaders in Washington over the next two days to discuss the
ongoing situation inside Burma.

Gambari is scheduled to meet with representatives from the White House and
State Department, as well as with Congressional leaders.

Meanwhile in response to questions on Tuesday as to whether the U.S. needs
to change its Burma strategy, especially regarding sanctions, due to the
ineffectiveness of U.S. policy vis-à-vis Burma, State Department spokesman
Sean McCormack was quick to pin blame for perceived failure in Burma
policy on obstructionist players in the international theater.

Speaking of the chance in positively affecting change inside Burma,
McCormack commented, "it requires everybody's effort and requires
considered pressure from all parties involved and interested in the issue
of human rights."

McCormack also pointed out the successful leadership of the United States
in getting Burma placed on last year's Security Council's agenda.

It is unknown whether the issue of Burma will be raised at the U.S.-China
Senior Dialogue set to begin today.

____________________________________

June 18, Voice of America
U.S. campaign hopes celebrities can help Burma - Ron Corben

A new campaign to highlight human rights abuses in Burma has been launched
as the detained opposition leader, Aung San Suu Kyi, marks her 62nd
birthday. The campaign hopes to use celebrity power to press for political
reform.

The new campaign to bring global attention to Burma's human rights record
- especially in the east of the country - is launched by the United States
Campaign for Burma.

It aims to copy the success of agencies such as the United Nations in
using the pulling power of celebrities, says Jeremy Woodrum, director of
the Washington-based campaign.

"The most important thing that we can do is to wake up the world to what's
going on. There's a lot of power in this world, not only in Hollywood -
elsewhere too - in New York City, all across Europe, across Africa, Latin
America. We have to tell the story about what's going on in Burma and in
eastern Burma in a way that people can understand."

The campaign took Eric Szmanda, an actor from the award- winning CBS TV
series Crime Scene Investigation, to the border between Burma and Thailand
to see the camps and clinics that house and assist more than 120,000
refugees. He says that more needs to be done to address the problems.

"There's an obligation on behalf of the artistic community to use their
power and position to convey how serious the crisis in Burma is. Sometimes
it takes celebrity to initiate change in government and to appeal to the
compassion of people around the world to not give up on fellow man."

Szmanda said he had seen pictures of the Burmese opposition leader Aung
San Suu Kyi in many places he visited.

"Her image is so present everywhere you go - everywhere I've been along
the border and in the camps. She is a symbol of hope and strength, not
just to the people of Burma, but to anybody who knows what it's like to
suffer any type of human rights violation or oppression."

People around the world are gathering to mark Aung San Suu Kyi's birthday
on June 19. More than 300 events are scheduled in the United States alone.

Aung San Suu Kyi, daughter of Burma's independence hero, Aung San, was
just two years old when her father was assassinated. Her National League
for Democracy won a landslide victory in elections in 1990. But she was
under house arrest from July 1989, and has been detained for more than 11
of the past 18 years.

The current military government has been in power in Burma since 1988. It
has promised to hold general elections once a national constitution is
complete. But it continues to ignore domestic and international pressure
to release Aung San Suu Kyi.

____________________________________
OPINION / OTHER

June 20, Mizzima News
UN tries to revive its Burma strategy - Larry Jagan

The UN is now urgently trying to restart its efforts to encourage the
Burmese government to push forward with its policy of national
reconciliation - the term the military junta uses to loosely to cover
political reform. The UN has an agreed mandate under the good offices of
the Secretary General to assist Burma's political reform process from
successive resolutions at the UN General Assembly.

Last week the newly appointed Special Adviser to the Secretary-General,
Ibrahim Gambari, held a special secret meeting in New York with
independent Burma specialists and senior UN officials, including the UN
resident coordinator in Rangoon, Charles Petrie, to try to map out a
strategy for the UN in relation to Burma. The special advisor reportedly
realises it is time for the UN to revive its efforts and that time may be
running out for the UN to be able to play a constructive role in the
process.

The special advisor is keen to return to Burma as soon as possible, but
felt he needed to consult with some of Burma's key neighbours and allies,
particularly Beijing, before he visits the country again, according to a
senior source at the UN. Initially he planned to go September, but is now
considering late-July or early August.

The junta is anxious for Gambari to come in mid-July and attend the
opening of the National Convention, which is drawing up the guidelines for
the new constitution, according to a senior Burmese official. The
constitutional process is set to resume on 18 July, and according to
Burma's acting Prime Minister, Thein Sein, who also oversees the National
Convention, this will be the last session of the body.

"There is no way the special advisor would come during the first week of
the Convention," a senior UN official told Mizzima on condition of
anonymity.

"As that would be tantamount to giving the Convention a UN seal of
approval, but an August visit is not impossible," the source added.

A Nigerian diplomat, Gambari has now officially replaced the previous
special envoy for Burma, the former Malaysian diplomat Ismail Razali.
Gambari visited Burma twice last year as the head of the UN's political
affairs department.

During both those trips he met the country's top military leaders,
including Senior General Than Shwe, and the detained opposition leader
Aung San Suu Kyi who only recently had her house arrest extended for a
further year. In fact the UN envoy is the only person to have been allowed
to see Aung San Suu Kyi in the last three years, apart from irregular
visits by her doctor.

Gambari understands that he now needs to concentrate on Burma if the UN
mission there has any hope of helping the national reconciliation process.
There was considerable criticism of his predecessor for failing to pay
enough attention to Burma between his short visits to the country. But
Gambari also knows that if he is to be effective, the UN needs a detailed
and well-considered strategy and a mechanism to implement it before he
ventures on another exploratory visit to Burma, according to a senior aide
at the UN. That will be part of his agenda when he talks to senior Asian
diplomats in key capitals in the region, especially Beijing, before he
heads off to see the generals.

The UN now sees that it has distinct roles in Burma, which if possible
should not be merged. These are of course helping the national
reconciliation process and the return to democracy, for which, in his new
role Gambari would be primarily responsible. The other areas are human
rights, for which there are several special rapporteurs and
representatives, including the Brazilian lawyer and academic Professor
Paulo Sergio Pinherio - who has not been allowed back into Burma now for
more than three years, humanitarian assistance, economic reform and the
establishment of the rule of law. While these are separate concerns, the
UN sees the need for all activities related to the country to be
coordinated at the highest level within the organisation.

When Gambari returns to Burma he will concern himself with all sides,
including the military and pro-democracy groups - including Aung San Suu
Kyi and her National League for Democracy He will additionally explore
whether there is a role for the UN in the national reconciliation process
and what that might be, according to a senior UN official.

Gambari's first visit, more than a year ago, was essentially to
re-establish a relationship with the regime and the other players. This
was particularly necessary as the previous special envoy had become
persona non grata with the junta and had been effectively banned from
visiting Burma after what proved to be his last visit in March 2004. So
after more than a two year gap, it was crucial for the UN to re-establish
contact and do a stock taking.

Having done that, six months later he made a follow-up meeting and told
the regime what he expected them to do as a goodwill gesture to help build
trust and show their sincerity and commitment to the national
reconciliation process. "Having done that it is important for him to ask
the generals, the pro-democracy groups, and the ethnic leaders what they
expect of him," said a senior western diplomat based in Bangkok who has
dealt with the regime for more than a decade.

Gambari understands that a lot of time has been wasted since his last
visit, largely because of internal UN problems and restructuring after the
new Secretary-General took office earlier this year. Now there is no time
to be lost if the UN is to play a meaningful role. In fact there were
those at the meeting in New York who urged Gambari to go back to Burma as
soon as possible, even before the National Convention resumed its
deliberations, according to a source at the meeting.

This makes sense as the National Convention - the first step on the
Burmese roadmap to democracy announced by the then prime minister General
Khin Nyunt in late August 2003 - is drawing to an end. If the UN and
international community are to have an effective role, even as
interlocutors rather than mediators, it would be useful for the UN special
advisor to be involved before the completion of the first step. But there
may not be time to organise it and Gambari himself may not be fully
prepared, according to a Rangoon-based western diplomat.

In terms of a new strategy, last weeks' meeting in New York focused on two
main themes, according to sources at the consultation event. The first was
the need to engage China as a central player in the national
reconciliation process. There was a consensus that while Beijing may have
limited sway with the generals, the Chinese were the only ones who might
be able to make a difference and influence the junta if they were inclined
to.

"Beijing, the rest of Asia, and the UN should recognise that they have a
common objective - regional stability - and a strong, transparent,
developed Burma would no longer be a threat to regional security,"
according to a western diplomat who has been involved with Burma for many
years. "This has to be the thrust of Gambari's approach - not the need for
democracy and human rights," he added.

There have been signs recently that this may match Beijing's views too and
that they are willing to discuss these matters privately with other
countries. There has been a high level dialogue between the US and China
at the level of the under-secretary for Asia, Christopher Hill, on the
issue of Burma, a source in the US state department told Mizzima. The
Chinese have also been pressing Washington to start its own bilateral
dialogue with the ruling State Peace and Development Council (SPDC) on
Burma's political future, according to a senior Chinese government
official.

On the other hand with the planned Chinese mega projects in the north of
Burma - the road linking China to India and the two proposed pipelines -
Burma's economy and country will be radically transformed. It will become
completely dominated by Beijing. The generals must know this and it might
make them more ready to accept UN assistance.

The other key factor that the meeting identified was how to give the
pro-democracy leader a role. "While we cannot convince the Chinese that
she is the answer, we need to make her less irrelevant and recognise that
at the very least she is part of the solution that would ensure regional
stability," the meeting as told.

This of course will remain Gambari's most difficult task - to get the
generals and some of their key Asian allies to accept - that Aung San Suu
Kyi cannot continue to be ignored. Whether he can, as his predecessor
managed, to get her freed is another matter. And of course nothing short
of an unconditional release from house arrest would satisfy the
pro-democracy movement inside the country and most of the international
community.

Gambari has already started his consultative meetings this week at the
White House, including an exchange with the first Lady Laura Bush, senior
State Department officials and politicians on the Hill.

But the special advisor faces the same problems his predecessors have --
the main problem remains the intransigence of Burma's top military leaders
and their reluctance to allow what they regard as foreign interference,
combine with their grave mistrust of the UN in general.

The first real test of whether there may be any softening on the part of
the generals may emerge next week when a senior UN envoy visits Burma on
an investigative mission.

The UN Special Representative for Children and Armed Conflict, Radhika
Coomaraswamy, is scheduled to start a five -day visit to Burma on Monday.
She will certainly meet the acting prime minister, Thein Sein, who is
responsible for this area. But who else she is able to talk to remains to
be seen. How flexible and accommodating the regime is to her may signal
how responsive they will be when Gambari finally visits again later this
year.

(Larry Jagan is a freelance journalist and Burma specialist based in
Bangkok. He was formerly the News and Current Affairs editor for Asia and
the Pacific at the BBC World Service.)

____________________________________

June 20, The Statesman (India)
Why is Suu Kyi still under arrest?

Campaigners say the key to changing Myanmar lies with India, China and
Russia - all of which have considerable financial and trade links with the
regime, writes ANDREW BUNCOMBE Today marks the 62nd birthday of the
pro-democracy leader and Nobel Prize winner Aung San Suu Kyi, a woman who
has spent much of the last two decades either imprisoned or living under
house-arrest at the command of one of the most repressive regimes in the
world. Today she will have spent a total of 11 years and 238 days (4,253
days) in detention. She lives in isolation in a peeling lakeside villa on
Yangons University Avenue, and visits to her are strictly controlled. Her
phone line has been cut and her post is routinely intercepted.

Her current period of detention began on 30 May, 2003 when a convoy she
was travelling in was attacked by a militia backed by the regime. Though
she escaped the attack she was later imprisoned by the authorities. Around
100 of her supporters were reportedly killed. Today, her birthday will be
marked by readings and performances of The Lady of Burma - a play about
Suu Kyi by Richard Shannon - in seven countries and 11 locations around
the UK.

At Westminster, Bollywood star Kabir Bedi will introduce an extract from
the play, performed by actress Liana Gould. Why is Suu Kyi so loved by the
Myanmarese people and so hated by the regime? More than just a democracy
activist, The Lady as she is widely known, embodies the struggle of the
Myanmarese people in the face of adversity. Her father, General Aung San,
negotiated Myanmars independence from Britain in 1945 before being
assassinated by his rivals.

In 1988, a month after up to 3,000 democracy activists were massacred by
the government, Suu Kyi established the National League for Democracy
(NLD). In 1990 the regime called a general election. Suu Kyis party won
convincingly, securing 392 of 485 seats, but the authorities ignored the
result and refused to hand over power. That year she was awarded the
Sakharov Prize, and in 1991, the Nobel Peace Prize, the award being
collected by her two sons, Alexander and Kim, in her absence. Her husband,
Michael Aris, an Oxford professor, was diagnosed with prostate cancer in
1997 and was refused a visa for Myanmar.

Suu Kyi was faced with an agonising decision: leave Myanmar, knowing that
she would never be allowed back in; or not leave Myanmar and leave her
sick husband without her. She chose to stay in Myanmar, and Michael died
in March 1999. Their two sons live in the UK. Last month, the Myanmarese
regime - the State Peace and Development Council - led by General Than
Shwe announced that Suu Kyis period of detention, due to expire at the end
of May, had been extended. At that time, the UN Working Group said it
believed her detention was in breach of the Universal Declaration on Human
Rights. What can be done to influence the regime? Campaigners say the key
to changing Myanmar lies with India, China and Russia - all of which have
considerable financial and trade links with the regime, offer political
support, and supply it with weapons.

In January, China and Russia were condemned for vetoing a UN Security
Council resolution requiring the restoration of democracy to Myanmar.
India has been widely condemned for supporting the regime, in particular
for its involvement in the massive Shwe gas project, which includes a
pipeline to India. Indias Myanmar policy, say campaigners, does not help:
it is dictated not by human rights but by Indias economic interests. India
hopes to counter the increasing Chinese influence in Myanmar, and wants
cooperation from the regime to tackle insurgents in the North-east. The
worlds largest democracy has abandoned Burmas democrats, said Zoya Phan,
campaign coordinator at the Burma Campaign UK. India should be ashamed of
what it has done, supplying money and weapons to one of the worlds most
brutal regimes. The secretary general of the Association of South-East
Asian Nations (Asean) said that sanctions against Myanmar would have
little impact because China and India would continue to support it.

____________________________________

June 20, Irrawaddy
Conflicting interests impede Burma’s democratization - Nehginpao Kipgen

Interests often dictate an individual or a nation in shaping diplomatic
relations with others. Neither the world’s lone superpower nor a
dictatorial regime like Burma is an exception. Interests can be manifold:
economic interest, political interest and strategic interest, among
others. These interests are coupled by o­ne’s national security.

At a meeting o­n June 5, 2007, the chairman of National Convention
Convening Commission announced that the convention final phase would
resume o­n July 18, 2007, following its adjournment since December 29,
2006.

Lt-Gen Thein Sein said, "The government is constantly implementing the
roadmap for a smooth transition to a peaceful, modern and developed
discipline-flourishing democratic state."

A week later o­n the 12th, a group of bipartisan US senators, Mitch
McConnell and Dianne Feinstein, joined by Patrick Leahy, John McCain, Sam
Brownback and Barack Obama, introduced legislation to renew economic
sanctions o­n Burma.

Both programs are likely to proceed as envisaged. Despite critics calling
the national convention a “sham,” the military leadership appears resolute
to the seven steps roadmap toward the so-called “disciplined democracy.”

The Burmese Freedom and Democracy Act was signed into law by US President
George W Bush o­n July 28, 2003, in the aftermath of the attack o­n Aung
San Suu Kyi’s motorcade at Depeyin o­n the May 30, 2003. The act freezes
the assets of senior Burmese officials and bans virtually all remittances
to Burma. The act has been renewed every year since then.

The interest of the military government is to consolidate its foothold and
advance the country’s democratization process in its own ways. It is also
by and large a forgone conclusion that the Western nations will continue
to impose sanctions and isolate this Southeast Asian nation, which has
over 428,000-man army.

The Western world and Burmese opposition groups will cling to the argument
that any outcome of the national convention is illegitimate, and
therefore, unacceptable. In other words, the military regime will leave no
stone unturned to legitimize itself even if it resorts to coercion.

It is almost certain that Burma will have a general election under the
supervision of the generals or officials appointed by them. If the
election result goes in favor of the military government, which is very
unlikely under a free and fair election, the name of the current regime
State Peace and Development Council is expected to be replaced.

As Burma’s internal problems are of an ethno-political nature, the
military is keen o­n making excuses along the lines that the country could
disintegrate o­n ethnic lines. In fact, with the nullification of the 1947
Panglong Agreement and the subsequent constitution, all ethnic
nationalities of Burma can claim pre-independence status.

However, claiming pre-independence status is likely to create more
instability and violence in this volatile nation. Building the Union of
Burma would better serve the interests of the different nationalities. To
do so, voices of both minority and majority ethnic nationalities need to
be heard.

With the gradual development of a democratic struggle, the Burmese people
now better understand the pros and cons of different governing systems
around the world. Although democracy is not the perfect solution to the
country’s problems, it will be a hallmark to national reconciliation.

The basic principles of Burma’s constitution drafted at the national
convention are to frame a unitary or centralized government with ultimate
power resting o­n the army. Conversely, the overwhelming majority of
ethnic minorities would opt for a decentralized government of more
autonomy in their respective states, administrative divisions and regions.

One other significant factor in the Burmese democratic movement is the
role of Aung San Suu Kyi and her National League for Democracy (NLD).
There are world leaders who are very concerned about Suu Kyi’s safety and
freedom. o­n May 14, world leaders sent a letter to Snr-Gen Than Shwe
urging him to release her was a dramatic example.

The more popular the lady is, the longer she might be put under house
arrest, unless something unusual occurs. When the world looks o­n the lady
with support, the military regime finds itself more threatened. To the
army generals, confining the 62-year-old lady is an effective means of
suppressing the democracy movement.

A contrasting interest of the opposition groups and their international
supporters: to free Suu Kyi and allow the NLD and other ethnic groups to
participate in a transparent convention leading to reconciliation.
Unsurprisingly, Suu Kyi’s house arrest was extended for another year o­n
May 27.

The Burmese people both inside and outside the country will watch the
slow-moving implementation of the seven steps roadmap toward democracy
with skepticism and caution. The release of the 1991 Nobel peace laureate
from detention before the elections is also a miniscule possibility.

This slow-moving process of democratization is a heavy burden o­n more
than 50 million citizens of Burma.

Nehginpao Kipgen is the general secretary of US-based Kuki International
Forum and a researcher on the rise of political conflicts in modern Burma
(1947-2004).