BurmaNet News, June 21, 2007

[Editor]

June 21, 2007 Issue # 3231

INSIDE BURMA
Mizzima News: Children given educational assistance by NLD, 88 students
Irrawaddy: Burmese children hunger as the generals splash out
Mizzima News: Ethnic ceasefire groups on resurgence mode

ON THE BORDER
The Telegraph (Calcutta): Manipur heat on Myanmar
Irrawaddy: Nine die in clash between rival Karen rebels, says KNU
Reuters: Bangladesh plans new camp for Myanmar refugees

BUSINESS / TRADE
Earth Times: Myanmar earns $2B in gas sales
Xinhua: S. Korea-Myanmar bilateral trade to grow unprecedentedly
Mizzima News: India still nurses hopes of gas from Burma: GAIL CMD

HEALTH / AIDS
Irrawaddy: Relatives of missing HIV activist threaten to sue authorities
DVB: Deadly fever hits high numbers of children in Bassein

ASEAN
Irrawaddy: New Asean charter could put pressure on Burma

INTERNATIONAL
Mizzima News: HR Council to continue work with Burma

OPINION / OTHER
Bangkok Post: China's thumb in every Burmese pie - Larry Jagan
Ohmy News: ASEAN needs to get tough on Myanmar - Gerald Giam

____________________________________
INSIDE BURMA

June 21, Mizzima News
Children given educational assistance by NLD, 88 students

Financial assistance to further the education of children of Burma's
prisoners of conscience was provided by the National League for Democracy
and 88 generation students to honour political prisoners.

The NLD on June 19, following party leader Suu Kyi's birthday
celebrations, conducted a ceremony, where 50,000 Kyats (approximately US $
38) each was donated to 22 children of families of political prisoners,
said U Hla Thein, secretary of NLD's Humanitarian Assistance Committee.

"The children were also provided with about half a dozen blank copies,
donated by 88 generation students," he added.

The donations are being organised annually since 2002, in keeping with the
vision of detained Burmese pro-democracy leader Daw Aung San Suu Kyi, he
said.

"We really wish she [Suu Kyi] could be present in person to hand out the
donations to the children. This would have boosted the morale of the
children," Hla Thein added.

____________________________________

June 21, Irrawaddy
Burmese children hunger as the generals splash out - Htet Aung

The public money spent o­n jaunts and junkets enjoyed by Burma’s junta
chief, Snr-Gen Than Shwe, his family and friends would cover the cost of
feeding 10,000 of the country’s under-nourished children for a year,
according to The Irrawaddy’s sources.

A rare document obtained by The Irrawaddy disclosed that nearly 10 million
kyat ($8,000) was spent in January 2006 o­n a four-day trip by Than Shwe
and a huge retinue to Ngwe Hsaung beach, in the Irrawaddy delta region,
which is being developed as a tourism destination. State-run newspaper The
New Light of Myanmar reported at the time that the purpose of the trip was
to inspect Ngwe Hsaung beach “resorts and
beautifying tasks.”

Than Shwe was accompanied by more than 400 central and local government
officials,  bodyguards and other security personnel. The 10 million kyat
bill was just for their stay at a hotel owned by Nawaday Hotel and Tour
Co. Ltd, and excluded the personal expenses of Than Shwe, his family and a
party of other top military brass and government members.

Those expenses were picked up by Tay Za, managing director of Htoo Trading
Co Ltd, who is believed to have secured profitable business contracts in
return. A visit to Tay Za’s Aureum Palace Hotel Resort was o­n the
general’s itinerary.

Tay Za shares a virtual monopoly over development projects at Ngwe Hsaung
beach with Wai Lwin, managing director of TMW Co Ltd and owner of Sunny
Paradise Resort, Htay Myint, chairman of Yuzana Co Ltd and owner of Yuzana
Resort Hotel and Win Aung of Dagon International Ltd, owner of Palm Beach
Resort. All enjoy close relations with Than Shwe, who included visits to
their hotels during his beach tour.

Than Shwe made at least four similar trips in 2006—to Upper Burma in
December, to Irrawaddy Division and Arakan State in April and reportedly
to Pyinmana in February. The total cost of a year’s travel around the
country would cover a o­ne-year supplementary nutrition program for about
10,000 malnourished Burmese children, said a former social worker in a UN
agency child development project.

More than 30 percent of Burma’s children under the age of five are
significantly undernourished, according to the UNDP Human Development
Report 2006.

The actual cost of Than Shwe’s jaunts is actually far higher than
officially documented, since he is usually accompanied by his entire
family, who are known to put extraordinary demands o­n the travel budget.

During a visit to Ngwe Hsaung beach in 2003 a special flight was rapidly
arranged to make a shopping trip to Singapore, to buy necessities for his
daughters. And during a visit in April this year to Maymyo a helicopter
was reportedly sent to Rangoon to buy roast duck for Than Shwe’s pampered
grandson.

____________________________________

June 21, Mizzima News
Ethnic ceasefire groups on resurgence mode - Mungpi

Moves for a resurgence is in evidence among several Sino-Burma border
based ethnic armed rebel groups, which have a ceasefire agreement with the
Burmese military junta, sources on the border reveal.

The rebel groups, most of whom are fighting for equality and
self-determination, are under pressure to surrender their arms once the
National Convention to be reconvened on July 18 is concluded, sources
said.

U Mya Maung, Sino-Burma border based military analyst told Mizzima that
preparations are in full swing among several ceasefire groups.

"What I can see is that the groups are planning to revitalize should the
junta's pressure to surrender arms go beyond a limit," Mya Maung said.

While avoiding mention of names of the armed groups, he said there are
possibilities that there might be a split in the armed groups on whether
they should succumb to the junta's pressure or revive resistance.

Sources said, the junta has indicated to the ceasefire armed groups to
give up their arms and form political parties to participate in the
planned general elections, which according to observers and Burma watchers
is likely to take place in 2008.

"I have been told by one of the armed groups of this notice and it gives
me the impression that many are not going to give up their arms," Mya
Maung said.

Several ethnic armed groups including one of Burma's longest surviving
ethnic insurgent groups, the Kachin Independence Army, are operating along
the Sino-Burma border.

Sources said the Burmese junta has been negotiating with the armed groups
to surrender arms and turn into political organizations.

With its announcement to reconvene the national convention, which took off
in 1993, the junta has indicated that it will call for an election, which
basically is aimed at legitimizing its role.

The junta feels that the ethnic armed groups are important in its
game-plan. They will help portray to the international community that the
regime has the support of ethnic minorities, observed Mya Maung.

"But with the armed groups hitching up their socks, the junta's hope is
bound to be shattered," he added.

There are possibly three factions of ideology that may emerge from the
armed groups. While some of the leaders, who have deeply committed
themselves to the junta for economic interests, are likely to succumb,
others with a strong sense of nationalism will continue armed resistance,
he said.

He added that among the armed groups there are people who have lost hope,
since the beginning of the ceasefire, and have returned to their villages
to live ordinary lives.

"It is evident that the ethnic groups will not accept anything less than
their demands and are bound to continue their armed struggle, unless there
is a genuine federal democracy in Burma," Mya Maung added.

____________________________________
ON THE BORDER

June 21, The Telegraph (Calcutta)
Manipur heat on Myanmar

Assam Rifles has held Myanmar partly responsible for the incidents that
left the border township of Moreh paralysed for 10 days this month.

Militant groups operating from Myanmarese territory killed 11 people from
the Kuki and Meitei communities in a single day, triggering a chain of
events that almost culminated in an ethnic conflict.

An Assam Rifles officer said the paramilitary force would make a formal
complaint about militant groups finding Myanmar an accommodating host
during a meeting with military officials from that country next week.

“We are concerned about the growing clout of militant groups of Manipur in
Myanmar. They come from across the border to create trouble here and
safely sneak back,” an Assam Rifles official said.

The issue was raised during an informal meeting between military officials
from both sides in Moreh recently. As on previous occasions, the
Myanmarese junta denied the presence of militants from Manipur on its
territory but promised to help restore law and order along the border.

The next meeting could be held either in Moreh or the immigration office
at Tamu, just across the border.

Assam Rifles, which took over the responsibility of manning the
Indo-Myanmar border from the Border Security Force in 2003, maintains that
groups operating from across the border masterminded most incidents in
Moreh in recent times.

Assam Rifles officials tried to convince their Myanmarese counterparts
during the last meeting that both countries would suffer if militants
remained entrenched across the border. They cited the blast at Namphalong
market, just across Moreh, on May 25 as an example of the terror network
expanding on either side. One person died in that incident and it led to
the Myanmar side of the border being sealed. Trading resumed after a few
days, only to be halted for the second time by the incidents on June 9.

Moreh opened its gates to traders yesterday for the first time in 10 days,
though trading was allowed only from 8 am to 12 pm. Trading hours were
extended by another three hours today.

Trading would take place in Moreh from 6 am to 6 pm prior to the two
violence-induced shutdowns.

Night curfew remains in force despite a semblance of normality returning
to the township.

____________________________________

June 21, Irrawaddy
Nine die in clash between rival Karen rebels, says KNU - Saw Yan Naing

Fighting between the Karen National Liberation Army—the military wing of
the Karen National Union—and the breakaway Democratic Karen Buddhist Army
o­n Thursday in Burma’s Myawaddy left nine DKBA soldiers dead, according
to KNU officials.

A KNLA special battalion attacked a car carrying troops from the DKBA’s
907 Battalion o­n a road from Pa-an District to Myawaddy Township in Karen
State, just opposite the Thai border town of Mae Sot.

“Nine DKBA soldiers were killed, including a lieutenant,” Maj Hla Ngwe,
the secretary of the Karen National Union’s information department, told
The Irrawaddy o­n Thursday.

A source close to the DKBA’s 907 Battalion who asked to remain anonymous
for security reasons, confirmed to The Irrawaddy that the attack took
place but said o­nly two DKBA soldiers were killed and five others injured
in the fighting.

“Nobody from our side [KNLA] was killed, but two soldiers were wounded,”
said Mahn Sha, the general secretary of the KNU. “We also recovered seven
guns from the DKBA.”

The latest fighting follows an earlier 2-hour battle o­n Monday in
Kawkareik Township, Karen State, involving troops from KNLA 103 Battalion,
DKBA 907 Battalion and soldiers of Burma’s Light Infantry Battalion 203,
according to KNLA 103 Battalion’s Lt-Col Nay Say.

Clashes between rival ethnic armies and Burmese government troops have
increased in recent weeks. Last Friday fighting broke out between the
KNLA’s 201 Battalion and government troops in Karen State’s Brigade 6.
Mahn Sha claimed that 14 Burmese soldiers were killed and an unknown
number were wounded.

____________________________________

June 20, Reuters
Bangladesh plans new camp for Myanmar refugees

Dhaka: Bangladesh plans to set up a camp for 9,500 Muslim refugees from
Myanmar, an official said on Wednesday, the third such shelter since they
started arriving in the country more than a decade ago.

The new camp will be located at Leda, near the Myanmar border, 500 km (312
miles) southeast of the capital Dhaka.

Most of the refugees, known as Rohingya Muslims, crossed into Bangladesh
from Myanmar's western state of Arakan over the past several years,
alleging ethnic persecution in the Buddhist dominated country.

"The new camp will be in operation from early August," Ahmad Hossain Khan,
a senior official of Disaster Management and Relief Ministry, said.

The refugees have been living in sub-human conditions without sanitation
and health care, officials said.

The camp will be in addition to two existing camps housing some 21,000
refugees for more than a decade.

They are the remnants of some 250,000 Rohingya refugees who fled Arakan in
early 1992 to escape persecution by the military government.

The United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees, the World Food
Programme and the government of Bangladesh jointly look after the
refugees.

____________________________________
BUSINESS / TRADE

June 20, Earth Times
Myanmar earns $2B in gas sales

Myanmar earned more than $2 billion from the sale of natural gas in the
past year, official media said.

The Myanmar Times reported June 8 that the country's earning from natural
gas sales in the 2006-07 season was $1 billion more than the previous
year.

In 2005-06, the former Burma earned $1.079 billion from gas sales, and in
2006-07 it earned $2.16 billion, the report said.

The rise in income comes amid high global gas prices. The country's major
export market is Thailand.

Myanmar's gas reserves are limited -- 283.2 billion cu m in proven
reserves as per 2005 estimates -- but it is prized in a region with
economic powers that desperately need energy for growth.

____________________________________

June 21, Xinhua General News Service
S. Korea-Myanmar bilateral trade to grow unprecedentedly

Bilateral trade between South Korea and Myanmar is expected to grow
unprecedentedly at an extra high rate following South Korea's exemption of
tariff on most of the goods imported from ASEAN countries including
Myanmar, a local media reported Thursday.

63 percent of items of goods imported by South Korea from countries of the
Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) have been exempted from tax
since the first week of this month, a S. Korean embassy official was
quoted by the Myanmar Times as saying.

The move represented a first step of South Korea towards establishing
South Korea-ASEAN Free Trade Area, the official said.

According to the S. Korean Customs Department, South Korea- Myanmar
bilateral trade grew about 20 percent in the past two years, rising from
176 million U.S. dollars in 2005 to 216 million dollars in 2006.

South Korea has become the 8th largest trading partner of Myanmar with
about 3,000 items of Myanmar goods exported to S. Korea which covered
agricultural produces, marine and forest products, and garments, while
Myanmar mainly imported from S. Korea steel, garment, electrical and
electronic goods, the sources said.

As disclosed by the official, South Korea will continue to cut or exempt
tariff up to 95 percent of items of goods imported from ASEAN nations
including Myanmar, while expecting Myanmar to reduce or exempt tariff on
goods imported from South Korea beginning 2018.

____________________________________

June 21, Mizzima News
India still nurses hopes of gas from Burma : GAIL CMD - Syed Ali Mujtaba

India is still nurturing hopes of striking a deal with Burma for gas for
its energy sector, even after Rangoon has indicated that it would sell gas
to China, said Gas Authority of India Ltd. (GAIL) CMD Dr U D Chobey on
Wednesday.

Though Rangoon is looking for the best price, it cannot totally rule out
New Delhi as India 's state-run oil and gas companies hold stakes in two
blocks of Burma, Dr Chobey said.

The state-owned GAIL and ONGC Videsh Ltd. hold 30 percent equity in the A1
and A3 blocks at 10 and 20 percent shares respectively, he added.

The GAIL CMD said that Bangladesh has been a hurdle to the construction of
a pipeline from Burma through northeast India , but after the new proposal
for an offshore pipeline, it (Bangladesh) is no longer relevant. Rather
the constant availability of gas from Burma rigs is more important.

In the Burma gas project, India's competitors are China, Thailand and
South Korea . However, since the distance between Korea and Burma is very
large compared to China and Thailand, India 's threat from Korea is less,
Chobey said.

China has no stake in Burmese fields but South Korea's Daewoo
International has 60 percent stake and is the lead operator of the blocks,
and the Korean Gas Company holds the rest, the CMD said.

____________________________________
HEALTH / AIDS

June 21, Irrawaddy
Relatives of missing HIV activist threaten to sue authorities - Shah Paung

Relatives of an HIV/AIDS activist who was arrested by Burmese authorities
last month say they will file a missing person's case and sue the
authorities if information about her status is not forthcoming.

Phyu Phyu Thin, a National League for Democracy youth member and a leader
in the group's HIV/AIDS section, was arrested one month ago on Thursday.
Authorities have provided no information about her arrest or where she is
detained.

Yarzar, one of her colleagues, said, “We don't know whether she is healthy
or alive so we are turning to legal resources to try to find her.”

Phyu Phyu Thin was arrested o­n May 21. She had been working to help
HIV/AIDS patients through education, counseling, housing and arranging for
medical care such as providing medicine for HIV/AIDS patients.

Family members of Phyu Phyu Thin said authorities from the Ministry of
Home Affairs and the Police Special Branch took her from her home,
according to Yarzar.

Khin Cho Oo, a HIV/AIDS woman patient of Phyu Phyu Thin, said she traveled
from Ye Township in Mon State to Rangoon because she was worried about
Phyu Phyu Thin.

“I didn't come here for medical treatment, but because I heard Phyu Phyu
Thin was arrested,” Khin Cho Oo said. “Phyu Phyu Thin is very much needed
to take care of her HIV/AIDS patients.”

Since 2002, Phyu Phyu Thin has worked with hundreds of HIV/AIDS patients,
Yarzar said. Currently, her youth group gives aid to about 30 HIV/AIDS
patients who do not receive medicines from Weibargi, the Rangoon
Infectious Diseases Hospital, or the AZG clinic of the Dutch branch of the
French-based Medicines sans Frontiers.

Some of the 30 HIV/AIDS patients live in Rangoon while others live outside
the city.

Currently, more than 200 HIV/AIDS patients receive anti-retroviral
treatment from AZG, while about seven receive treatment from Weibargi,
according to Yarzar.

“We are now faced with more difficulties because Phyu Phyu Thin is not
with us, and she was quite well-known," Yarzar said. "Many people loved
her and gave donations to her."

____________________________________

June 21, Democratic Voice of Burma
Deadly fever hits high numbers of children in Bassein

There has been a sharp increase in the number of children dying from
hemorrhagic dengue fever in Bassein, Irrawaddy division, according to
sources close to the local hospital.

In the past five days more than 10 children have died from the disease in
Bassein, with local residents complaining the government had failed to
address the problem.

“Three children died on the 18th of this month and five more died in the
afternoon on the next day. At least 10 have died in total. The local
health authorities have done nothing to take precautions,” DVB’s source
close to the hospital said.

Residents also said that while a number of people from the community had
offered to donate blood to help save the children, the hospital had
attempted to sell the freely donated blood to patients and make a profit.

“The hospital chief is charging 9500 kyat for what he calls donation money
for a pack of blood. Some poor families haven’t been able to pay,” another
source told DVB.

____________________________________
ASEAN

June 21, Irrawaddy
New Asean charter could put pressure on Burma

The new Asean charter could contribute to the democracy movement in Burma,
the incoming general secretary of the 10-country bloc said on Wednesday.

Surin Pitsuwan, a former foreign minister and a senior member of the
Democrat Party, has been endorsed by the Thai cabinet to succeed the
current general secretary of Asean at the end of the year.

“On Burma, the spirit of democracy is reasserting itself in the region,”
Surin told the Bangkok Post, o­ne of Thailand's English language
newspapers.

“The charter is expected to touch upon the issues of human rights, people
participation and good governance, but whenever o­ne or more countries
become champions of the issues some others will back away,” he added. "How
we can sustain the spirit or regenerate the debate o­n the issue has yet
to be seen." The new charter is expected to be approved sometime this
summer.

Burma became a member of Asean in 1997. Asean has grown increasingly
impatient with Burma’s slow crawl toward political reform, particularly
with the junta’s refusal to free Burma's detained democracy leader Aung
San Suu Kyi. However, Asean was founded o­n the principle of
non-interference in a member state’s internal affairs.

Currently the five-year term of the Asean general secretary is held by Ong
Keng Yong of Singapore.

____________________________________
INTERNATIONAL

June 21, Mizzima News
HR Council to continue work with Burma - Christopher Smith

At the conclusion of a weeklong session which attempted to codify the
procedural behavior of the Council's activities, the UN Human Rights
Council agreed to continue the work of independent experts reporting on
the situation in Burma.

Outgoing President of the Council, Mexican Ambassador Luis Alfonso de
Alba, felt confident of the Council's achievements.

"The Council has better tools to act and to really reduce the number of
violations or identify a greater number of violators," de Alba said.

However the Council session was not without controversy.

The 47 Council members had to fight to overcome a Chinese proposal to
increase the vote needed to investigate a country's behavior from a simple
majority vote to two-thirds.

Additionally, the United States issued a statement critical of the
Council's position, saying it failed to adequately address the human
rights situations in countries such as Burma, Cuba and Zimbabwe, while
giving undue attention to the question of Israeli actions in the
Palestinian territories.

Neither Burma nor the United States is party to the Council, which
replaced the ill-fated Human Rights Commission a year previously.

Meanwhile, the human rights situation in Burma is poised to deteriorate
even further in the near future, speculated the UN Development Program
coordinator for Burma, Charles Petrie.

Speaking at a press conference in New York, Petrie spoke of the vicious
cycle of increased poverty and disease threatening Burma. He specifically
cited the likely increase in prevalence of HIV/AIDS, tuberculosis and
malaria.

Petrie further commented that internal migration of people and families
has served to further the economic and health crises gripping the nation.

____________________________________
OPINION / OTHER

June 20, Bangkok Post
China's thumb in every Burmese pie - Larry Jagan

Rangoon is now Beijing's best buddy in Southeast Asia and China's
influence is visible everywhere across Burma

Burma has now become China's most important ally in Asia. China's support
for the Burmese junta has recently strengthened immeasurably, as the
Chinese leaders have made Rangoon the cornerstone of their revised
strategy towards Southeast Asia in the face of what it fears is the
growing and unwanted influence of the United States in the region. Since
the beginning of the year there has been a flurry of diplomatic and
business visits between the two capitals, with the aim of boosting
economic, trade and technology ties. This included a secret mission by the
Burmese army chief, General Thura Shwe Mann, to Beijing in May.

But their burgeoning relationship is not without some irritation, as
Beijing realises its close relationship with its unpopular Asian ally is
likely to increase pressure on them from Burmese political activists and
the international community.

In early June, Burma's acting prime minister Thein Sein visited Beijing
where he met senior Chinese legislators from the National Peoples'
Congress and discussed a wide range of issues including political and
economic matters. Almost immediately the Burmese government hosted a large
delegation from Beijing, from the China-Asean Association which included
government officials, legislators and businessmen. China is anxious to
explore cooperation with Burma in almost all economic and business areas.
During the visit of provisional Chinese officials three months ago, some
600 businessmen from both countries discussed mutual cooperation covering
timber, bamboo and furniture, rubber, hydroelectric projects,
construction, mining, transportation, tea products, beverages, sugar
mills, textiles, fertiliser and chemicals, electric and electronic
products, livestock and fisheries, machine parts and farm equipment.

Some time ago China decided that Burma was crucial to its economic
development, especially for the more backward southern regions of the
country which have lagged behind the economic development along China's
eastern coast. But until recently, China's leaders have feared that
Burma's military junta lacked real legitimacy and could collapse
overnight, leaving Beijing's military and economic investment in the
regime worthless. There is no doubt that China's greatest fear remains
Burma's stability. More than a million Chinese farmers, workers and
businessmen have crossed into Burma in the last 10 years and are working
and living there. The Chinese authorities fear that any upheaval in Burma
would result in a mass exodus of Chinese back across the border, creating
increased industrial and social unrest in their border regions.

In the past few years Chinese businessmen and provincial government
enterprises have boosted their investment in Burma: Lashio, Mandalay and
Muse are virtually Chinese cities now. Even in Rangoon, the Chinese are
involved in building a special tax-free export zone around the port.

China already has major oil and gas concessions in western Burma, and is
planning overland pipelines to bring it to southern China.

Burma is an important strategic transit point for goods produced in
southern China. They want to transport these by road to the Rangoon port
for shipment to India, the Middle East and eventually Europe. Repair work
is under way on Burma's antiquated internal road system that links
southern China, through Mandalay to Rangoon.

Now there are fresh plans to rebuild the old British road through northern
Burma that would connect southern China with northeast India. The Chinese
have agreed to finance the construction of this highway using 40,000
Chinese construction workers. Some 20,000 would remain after the work was
completed to do maintenance work on the road.

''When this happens the northern region of Burma will be swamped by
Chinese government officials, workers, lorry drivers and businessmen _ it
will no longer be Burma,'' according to a senior Western diplomat-based in
Bangkok who has followed Burmese affairs for more than a decade.

Already along the Burmese border with China, every small town has
restaurants and stores run by migrants from China, many have been there
for more than a decade. Chinese teachers are also being recruited to work
in the Chinese-language and bilingual schools that are popping up in many
of the major cities in northern Burma. Already in the major border towns
in Shan state like Mongla and Muse, only the Chinese currency _ the
renminbi or yuan _ is used; Chinese calligraphy dominates the landscape:
billboards, street signs and shopfronts almost all use Chinese characters
exclusively; very little Burmese writing can be seen.

In some towns along the border the clocks are set to Beijing standard time
rather than Burma's clock to facilitate cross-border contact, according to
local Burmese officials.

The Chinese authorities are planning to use Burma as a crucial transit
point, not just for the products grown or manufactured in southwest China,
but as a means of transporting goods from the country's economic
power-houses along the eastern seaboard.

''By shifting the transit route away from the South China Sea and the
Malacca Straits to using Burma's port facilities to reach South Asia, the
Middle East and Europe they hope to avoid the dangers of crowded shipping
lanes and pirates _ the Malacca dilemma as Beijing calls it,'' a senior
Chinese analyst told the Bangkok Post on condition of anonymity.

But Beijing is also well aware that the junta's failure to implement
political reform may backfire, not only for Rangoon, but on China as well.
Already under increased international criticism for its unswerving support
of what the international community regards as pariah states _ especially
Burma, North Korea, Sudan, and Zimbabwe _ Beijing has begun to distance
itself and take a more active role in trying to influence its allies to be
more flexible. That has certainly been the case as far as Rangoon is
concerned.

Beijing has been far more pro-active behind the scenes in pressing Burma's
military rulers to introduce political and economic reform as quickly as
possible. They have also quietly raised the vexed issue of the detained
opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi, suggesting that she be freed. But when
Gen Thura Shwe Mann told the Chinese leaders in May that this was
impossible as she still posed a security risk, they backed off.

Instead, they are now pressing both Washington and Rangoon, behind the
scenes, to start a secret dialogue to try to overcome some of the issues
which keep Burma internationally isolated.

Beijing is also alarmed by Rangoon's nuclear ambitions and the recent deal
with Moscow to build a nuclear reactor in Burma. China's leaders have
already communicated their displeasure and warned the Burmese they could
not rely on Chinese assistance if anything went wrong.

China's leaders were also extremely annoyed at Rangoon's re-establishment
of diplomatic relations with Pyongyang.

''They no longer trust North Korea and were dismayed that two important
neighbours had effectively gone behind their backs and resumed
relations,'' according to a Chinese government source.

Officially, of course, Beijing welcomed the development.

But despite these irritations, China's leaders have realised that Burma is
by far its strongest ally in Southeast Asia.

For some time Beijing has eyed suspiciously the growing American influence
in the region, especially in what it regards as its backyard and natural
sphere of influence _ Cambodia and Vietnam, and to some extent in Laos as
well.

China's leaders now fear that in Thailand the opposition Democrat party is
going to sweep back into power if elections are held according to plan in
November or December. The Chinese also see the Democrats as avowedly
pro-US and have already threatened to overhaul or rescind the Free Trade
Agreement between Bangkok and Beijing. And, of course, Beijing would not
welcome Aung San Suu Kyi coming to power in Rangoon, as they regard her as
an American puppet.

So for Beijing, this growing potentially hostile environment in Asia means
their only trustworthy and truly anti-American ally in the region remains
Burma's military regime.

____________________________________

June 21, Ohmy News
ASEAN needs to get tough on Myanmar - Gerald Giam
Group risks becoming a laughing stock if it continues to tolerate the
military regime

The extension of the imprisonment of Myanmar's pro-democracy leader, Daw
Aung San Suu Kyi, on May 27, 2007 was a widely expected move by the
country's military government, which has already kept her under detention
for most of the 17 years since her party won the national elections by a
landslide in 1990.

While Indonesia, Philippines and Malaysia (and occasionally Singapore)
have voiced their dissatisfaction with the lack of democratic progress in
Myanmar, there is still a lot more that the countries of the Association
of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) can and should do to push the regime
towards the path of democracy. ASEAN's continued reluctance to take
concrete action against Myanmar has only served to embolden the Myanmar
generals' sense of invincibility and reinforce the commonly held view that
ASEAN is a "toothless tiger."

Background

Myanmar (also known as Burma) was admitted as a member of ASEAN in 1997
with the support of the grouping's most influential members -- Indonesia,
Malaysia and Singapore. This was despite protests from Western governments
and Aung San Suu Kyi herself that admitting Myanmar was tantamount to
endorsing the junta's despotic ways. However, ASEAN had its reasons for
admitting Myanmar, despite the latter's dismal human rights record.

Firstly, ASEAN governments saw the expansion of the grouping from six
original members (Brunei, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore and
Thailand) to 10 members (with the addition of Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar and
Vietnam) as a way to increase its attractiveness as an investment
destination. With over 567 million people and a combined gross domestic
product of over US$1 trillion, "ASEAN-10" is trying to make itself an
attractive alternative to China and India.

Secondly, ASEAN felt it was imperative to engage Myanmar to prevent it
from drawing too close to China, which ASEAN countries have always been
wary of. China views Myanmar as a country of strategic significance,
providing it with much needed access to the Indian Ocean.

For Singapore, which pooh-poohs abstract notions of human rights and
democracy in favour of hard-nosed economic pragmatism, Myanmar provides a
sizeable export market, particularly for its military equipment and
ordnance. (Singapore has long been a major supplier of arms to Myanmar).

Some analysts have speculated that the admission of Myanmar was the ASEAN
leaders' way of asserting the supposed superiority of "Asian values" and a
rejection of Western governments' attempts to impose "alien" values of
liberal democracy on the region. At that time, Southeast Asian economies
were brimming with confidence and optimism on the wings of phenomenal
growth rates over the previous decade. In an almost Titanic-like turn of
events, however, all this came crumbling down just a few weeks after
Myanmar was admitted to ASEAN. The sudden devaluation of the Thai baht led
to a regional economic meltdown known as the Asian Financial Crisis.

To garner support Myanmar's admission, ASEAN governments promoted the idea
that so-called "constructive engagement" of the regime rather than
isolation and sanctions would be a more effective way of prodding the
generals to behave according to internationally-accepted norms. Ten years
on, constructive engagement of Myanmar has proven to be an abject failure.
The level of oppression of the opposition and people in Myanmar has
increased, rather than abated, since its admission into ASEAN.

The Myanmar Thorn

Since coming into the ASEAN fold, Myanmar has been a thorn in ASEAN's
relations with its major trading partners, the European Union (EU) and the
U.S. Because of Myanmar's membership in ASEAN, a number of ASEAN-EU
Ministerial Meetings have been cancelled or downgraded. These were lost
opportunities for ASEAN as the meetings could have further enhanced
ASEAN's political and economic relations with the world's most important
trading block.

Myanmar has also proven to be a impediment to talks on an ASEAN-EU Free
Trade Agreement (FTA). It is virtually impossible for the EU to consider
an FTA with ASEAN while maintaining trade sanctions against Myanmar for
human rights abuses.

Meanwhile, a trade and investment pact with U.S. was postponed several
times because of Washington's reluctance to have anything to do with
Myanmar's generals. Eventually, the U.S. did sign a watered-down Trade and
Investment Framework Arrangement (TIFA) with ASEAN.

In 2005, US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice broke with tradition and
skipped the annual ASEAN-led security meeting known as the ASEAN Regional
Forum (ARF), signalling Washington's displeasure over the lack of
democratic progress in Myanmar.

Perhaps the biggest threat that Myanmar poses to ASEAN is its potential to
derail the grouping's bold plans to achieve regional economic integration
by 2015. With its moribund economy and lack of progress on almost all
aspects of development, Myanmar is likely to be a huge stumbling block to
economic integration, which requires a minimum degree of parity in
economic development between member states in order to be successful.

Wake Up Call for ASEAN

Condoleezza Rice's snub of the 2005 ARF was a wake up call for ASEAN
governments, as it dawned on them how much of a liability Myanmar was
turning out to be. The leadership of ASEAN is rotated annually among its
10 members. The most important responsibility of the ASEAN chair is to
host all the major ASEAN meetings, including the ASEAN Ministerial
Meeting, the ASEAN Summit, the ARF and the East Asian Summit (which
involves Australia, New Zealand and India).

Of these meetings, the ARF is probably the most significant as it involves
ASEAN's "Dialogue Partners", including the U.S., the EU, China and Russia.
It was a no brainer that any meetings held in Yangon (Myanmar's capital)
would be skipped by the U.S., the EU and probably Australia and New
Zealand.

To stave off this looming crisis, ASEAN foreign ministers in 2005 took an
unprecedented move to strongly hint to Myanmar that it voluntarily forego
its turn as ASEAN chairman. This was probably the furthest ASEAN has got
to breaking its tradition of "non-interference" in the domestic affairs of
member states. Fortunately, Myanmar got the hint and did give up its
chairmanship, although the option still remains open for it to reclaim its
turn at a future rotation.

Put Them "in the Dog House"

By this time, ASEAN leaders were starting to openly voice their
frustration at the continued recalcitrance of the Myanmar junta, and their
unpredictable behaviour. On June 1, during the Shangri La Dialogue (an
annual security forum in held in Singapore), Prime Minister Lee Hsien
Loong told the audience, "We (ASEAN) have exercised our influence,
persuaded, encouraged, cajoled the authorities in Myanmar to move and
adapt to the world which is leaving them behind. The impact has been
limited."

He admitted that "Myanmar is a problem. It's a problem for ASEAN, it's a
problem for Myanmar itself." He continued, "We can take a strident
position and say well, we will condemn you, we will shut you off, we will
embargo you, we will put you in a dog house. Will we make things better?
Will we cause things to change? I don't believe so."

These unusually bitter words coming from a Singapore leader were carried
by Reuters and Associated Press, but were conspicuously absent from
Singapore's newspapers, including The Straits Times.

It is true that ASEAN's influence over Myanmar is limited. Even without
ASEAN's support, Myanmar can still count on the support of its two giant
neighbours, China and India, who are competing with each other to give
more money, aid and weapons to the regime in order to exercise more
influence over that strategically located nation.

It was a colossal mistake for ASEAN to have admitted Myanmar into the fold
in the first place. Although that is now water under the bridge, ASEAN's
continued reluctance to take concrete action against Myanmar has only
served to embolden the Myanmar generals' sense of invincibility and
reinforce the commonly held view that ASEAN is a "toothless tiger".

Myanmar rightly belongs in the dog house. Some parliamentarians from ASEAN
countries have called on ASEAN to suspend their membership. However, none
of the ASEAN countries appear ready to support this very harsh measure.
They would reason that if Myanmar can be suspended because of foreign
pressure, then the same might happen to their own countries in the future.

If ASEAN stops defending Myanmar (for example when the EU refuses to give
the Myanmar representative a seat at ASEAN-EU conferences), the generals
may realise that they cannot gain anything more from remaining in ASEAN,
and might decide to voluntarily withdraw Myanmar from the grouping. This
would save ASEAN the dilemma of deciding whether or not to suspend
Myanmar.

Should Myanmar remain obstinate, and move even further away from its
"roadmap to democracy", ASEAN should take a bold step to bite the bullet
and suspend them, lest Myanmar becomes a millstone around ASEAN's neck
which eventually drags down the grouping. At a minimum, ASEAN governments
should break their traditional silence and speak more strongly against the
behaviour of the Myanmar regime.

The ASEAN Inter-Parliamentary Myanmar Caucus (AIPMC) has repeatedly called
for the release of Daw Suu Kyi and for ASEAN's ties with Myanmar to be
suspended should they fail to do so. (The AIPMC includes of lawmakers from
Cambodia, Malaysia, Indonesia, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and an
MP-elect from Myanmar.) Since ASEAN governments find it difficult to take
a more strident tone on Myanmar, the AIPMC provides a good alternative
voice of ASEAN, especially since it consists of elected MPs from member
states. Therefore, the profile of the AIPMC should be enhanced and their
statements given more coverage by the media.

However, at the end of the day, ASEAN governments will see no compelling
reason to act against Myanmar unless their electorates take a keener
interest in the issue and call on their governments to stop turning a
blind eye to the plight of Myanmar's suffering people. Malaysian
opposition leader Lim Kit Siang probably expressed it best, when he once
remarked that "ASEAN cannot be expected to be forced to promote
democratization in Burma until democratization itself has taken deep and
firm root in the majority of ASEAN nations."