BurmaNet News, July 7-9, 2007

[Editor]

July 7-9, 2007 Issue # 3242

INSIDE BURMA
Irrawaddy: Saboteurs plotting to obstruct National Convention: Burmese PM
AFP: Thousands homeless in Myanmar floods
Mizzima News: Junta conducts test drilling's for gas with forced labour
KNG: Junta orders census of Kachin State in two age groups

HEALTH / AIDS
AFP: 30 dead as dengue fever epidemic hits Myanmar: report
Xinhua: 2.5 million children vaccinated against polio in Myanmar
Irrawaddy: Burma’s Uranium lab lack health safeguards

ASEAN
Malaysiakini: Asean builds muscle to restrain Burma

INTERNATIONAL
UN News Centre: UN agency chief renews call for release of jailed
journalist in Myanmar
SHAN: Sydney: Funds and awareness raised for IDP of Burma

OPINION / OTHER
Mizzima News: An uncertain future yet road to democracy clear - May Ng
Bits of News: A Burmese bomb - Henry Midgley

____________________________________
INSIDE BURMA

July 9, Irrawaddy
Saboteurs plotting to obstruct National Convention: Burmese PM - Saw Yan
Naing

Burma’s acting Prime Minister on Monday warned that saboteurs were
plotting to interfere with the government’s National Convention for
democratic reform, according to state-run newspapers.

Lt-Gen Thein Sein urged the government-backed Myanmar War Veterans
Organization to protect the National Convention from disruption by
saboteurs, an article in the official newspaper The New Light of Myanmar
on Monday reported.

The National Convention, the Burmese military government’s first of seven
steps towards democratic reform, is scheduled to reconvene for its final
session on July 18, during which the body is expected to finalize the
draft of a new constitution.

Meanwhile, Burma’s main opposition party, the National League for
Democracy, was urged on Sunday during a pro-constitution rally at Yangon
[Rangoon] Educational College to accept the outcome of the convention,
according to German news agency Deutsche Presse Agentur.

“We weren’t informed officially, but we heard that a group gathered [on
Sunday] and that [group leader] Tin Shwe gave a speech like that,” NLD
Spokesperson Nyan Win told The Irrawaddy on Monday. “But we don’t have any
other details.”

Tin Shwe, an elected member of Burma’s first parliament from 1952-56,
served as chairman of the pro-constitution rally.

A recent report by Deutsche Presse Agentur said that hundreds of members
of the pseudo-social group Union Solidarity and Development Association
have held public rallies in support of the National Convention.

While the July session is expected to finalize a draft constitution, it
remains unknown how long it will take for a referendum on the constitution
and the general elections that are to follow.

The USDA has also launched similar pro-government campaigns in Mon State,
particularly in the capital Moulmein and in the townships of Paung and
Mudon, according a Mon ceasefire group.

"[The USDA] said that the government does good things for the people, so
the people should support them,” said Naing Ong Ma-nge, a foreign affairs
official with the New Mon State Party. “They asked local people to support
the national convention and vote to support the government in the
referendum.”

NMSP delegates attended the National Convention but only as observers.

USDA members have also traveled to Loilen Township and other areas in
southern Shan State to promote the convention and the government’s
roadmap, according to a member of the ceasefire group Shan Nationalities
People’s Liberation Organization, which recently fled its base in Shan
State.

In state-run media last week, Thein Sein urged the Burmese public to use
wisdom when voting in a future referendum o­n the country’s unfinished
draft constitution.

"When the time comes to do so, it is important people make their decision
based o­n wisdom and be able to distinguish right and wrong," Thein Sein
was quoted as saying in The New Light of Myanmar. He said nothing about
when a referendum would be held or when the draft constitution would be
complete.

Official press reports also said that the military government has begun
passing out ID cards in connection with the announcement that the National
Convention will soon be entering its final session, and that villagers in
some areas of Burma are being warned that they must accept the forthcoming
referendum without protest if they want to vote in future elections.

____________________________________

July 9, Agence France Presse
Thousands homeless in Myanmar floods

Thousands of people were left homeless after floods swept through central
Myanmar, washing out bridges, closing schools and forcing a suspension in
rail service, state media said Monday.

Heavy rains last week have sent flood waters rising up to four feet (1.2
metres), forcing thousands of people into emergency shelters, the
state-run New Light of Myanmar newspaper said.

Some rail services were suspended and schools were closed in parts of the
capital Yangon and several surrounding provinces, the paper said.

At least one bridge was washed out in Bago division, 50 kilometres (30
miles) north of Yangon, where residents waded with their belongings
through knee-deep water to reach higher ground.

Official media did not report any casualties or give further details on
those left homeless.

A tornado also hit the northern part of Yangon division on Friday,
injuring four and damaging 80 homes, the paper said.

The tornado was the second in two weeks, after an earlier one killed a
woman and injured seven people in the capital on June 28.

Myanmar's rainy season began in June, and seasonal flooding is an annual
problem here.

Some parts of Myanmar have experienced record rainfall while others have
seen the heaviest downpours in decades, state media said.

____________________________________

July 9, Mizzima News
Junta conducts test drilling's for gas with forced labour - Nyien Chan

In a fresh quest for energy, Burma's state-owned oil and gas enterprise
has started test drilling's in Pone Hna Kyun Township in western Burma's
Arakan state, forcing local villagers into labour and under paying them.

Since June 27, a team led by U Lwan Aung, senior engineer of the Myanmar
Oil and Gas Enterprise (MOGE) began onshore exploration with test drilling
in the foothills of Be Nga Yar hill in Pone Hna Kyun Township.

The light infantry battalion (LIB) – 550, of the Burmese Army based in the
area, was tasked to provide 50 people for the drilling. The LIB – 550
forced local villagers into compulsory labour with wages of Kyat 300
(approximately .23 US cents) per day, local residents said.

Fifty labourers are being supplied to the army's command by seven villages
in the township on a rotational system, a resident of Sar Ngan Pyin
village told Mizzima.

"We get only Kyat 300 Kyat and one Pyi (approximately 1.5 kg) of rice but
we have to work from 7 a.m. to 6 p.m. carrying our own lunch packs. We
have to plough and also cook for them and work according to their
directions. But we are scared of the LIB 550 and dare not flout their
orders," Ko Maung Maung told Mizzima.

"We will happily work for them if they would give us satisfactory wages.
Now, we get only Kyat 300 and a Pyi of rice, whereas if we work outside we
get at least Kyat 800 – 1000," another resident of Yo Ngo village said.

Following the discovery of Shwe off-shore natural gas in Arakan state,
Burmese military authorities have been on a natural gas searching spree.
Reports suggest that the junta plans to conduct further explorations in
Sittwe, Mraut Oo, Kyauk Phwe, Kyauk Daw and Man Aung.

The exploration and test drilling's are being conducted by the MOGE in
collaboration with Chinese Oil companies, reports suggest.

____________________________________

July 9, Kachin News Group
Junta orders census of Kachin State in two age groups

Burma's ruling military junta has ordered a census of Kachin State in
northern Burma. The census undertaken is divided into two groups of
people, those under 18 and over 18 year of age, residents said.

Work on the census has been undertaken by the junta's administrators in
districts, townships and villages and the activities have begun mainly in
Myitkyina and Bhamo, residents told KNG.

In Myitkyina, capital of Kachin State, the people have had to bring their
'Family Members List Book' to the concerned administrative offices over a
couple of weeks. The family members are being listed in two age groups, a
resident said.

In Bhamo, the second largest city of Kachin State, residents are being
listed in the same age groups with the issuance of National Identity Cards
for a month now, a Bhamo resident said.

Most residents of Myitkyina and Bhamo believe that the census is related
to pre-election activities. Election seems likely to be held next year
following the final session of the National Convention which reopens on
July 18, locals added.

Drafting Burma 's new Constitution will be concluded at the end of this
year in Nyaung Napyin National Convention in Rangoon, mainly supported by
Burma's 13-ethnic ceasefire groups.

Last Tuesday, five delegates of the strongest Kachin ceasefire group, the
Kachin Independence Organization (KIO)'s led by Dr. Manam Tu Ja left for
Rangoon for the Nyaung Napyin National Convention.

The convention is vehemently opposed by Aung San Suu Kyi's National League
for Democracy (NLD) and other political opposition groups. They believe
that the junta is trying to transform to an official government after the
convention in order to legitimize military rule.

In Burma , all citizens, over the age of 18 years old have the right to
vote, in keeping with the past Constitutions which were scrapped by
successive military governments.

____________________________________
HEALTH / AIDS

July 9, Agence France Presse
30 dead as dengue fever epidemic hits Myanmar: report

Dengue fever killed 30 people in Myanmar in the first six months of the
year, local media said Monday, making it the latest country in the region
to experience a surge in the mosquito-borne disease.

Than Winn, a senior Myanmar health ministry official, told the weekly
Myanmar Times newspaper that the number of cases was soaring.

"In the first six months of this year there have been about 3,000 cases of
the disease and 30 deaths. This is much higher than the first six months
of 2006," Than Winn said.

The semi-official newspaper did not say how many people had died in the
first half of 2006, but said a total of 130 people died and 11,049 were
infected with the virus last year.

Dengue fever normally takes its greatest toll in Myanmar in the second
half of the year, after the rainy season begins in June. The disease is
especially dangerous in children and the elderly.

Myanmar's health system has suffered from decades of economic
mismanagement, and the United Nations estimates that the military-ruled
nation spends just 0.5 percent of its gross domestic product on health.

Dengue fever is on the rise across Southeast Asia. In Cambodia at least
132 people have died this year, while Myanmar's neighbour Thailand has
reported 21,000 cases in 2007, a 36 percent increase on last year.

The virus, which leads to a sudden onset of fever with severe headaches,
muscle and joint pains, thrives in urban areas.

____________________________________

July 9, Xinhua General News Service
2.5 million children vaccinated against polio in Myanmar

A total of 2.5 million children under the age of five in Myanmar were
vaccinated against polio during the country's third round of polio
vaccination campaign in the last five days under an expanded program on
immunization, the local Myanmar Times reported Monday.

The third round of the campaign lasted from July 4 to 8.

The expanded program on immunization was carried out in cooperation with
the United Nations Children's Fund (UNICEF) and the World Health
Organization (WHO) following the detection of fresh wild polio virus in a
two-and-a-half-year-old boy in Maungtaw township, western coastal Rakhine
state on April 19 this year.

The wild polio virus was spread from neighboring countries according to an
examination result of the WHO lab, earlier reports said.

Long-term cooperation is being made between Myanmar and Bangladesh, one of
the neighboring countries bordering Myanmar's Maungtaw.

Meanwhile, a UN delegation, led by Dr. Julian Bilous, Senior Adviser of
the Polio Eradication and EPI Immunization Vaccine and Biological of WHO
and Dr. Tadashi Yasuda, Acting Chief of UNICEF visited Myanmar in May to
discuss with the officials of the Ministry of Health over the prevention
measures.

The last round of the campaign, conducted from June 9 to 13, covered 82
townships in Rakhine, Ayeyawaddy, Magway, Bago and Chin states and
divisions.

So far, eight of the children have been confirmed with wild polio virus,
the report said.

In May 2006, a highly infectious polio, caused by a virus like wild-type
polio virus, was suspected in northern Myanmar's Pyin Oo Lwin township
creating a threat for a likely recurrence of the disease in the polio-free
Southeast Asian nation already recognized by a regional committee four
years ago.

The country selected the township as a central venue for launching its
biannual national immunization activities in September and October in the
year giving oral polio vaccination to children under five in 80 townships
surrounding Pyin Oo Lwin with the cooperation of the two UN organizations
as well as the Japanese embassy and non-governmental organizations.

More than two million children in the 80 townships scattered in Mandalay,
Magway, Sagaing, Shan and Kachin divisions and states were then covered.

The Myanmar health authorities have stressed the importance to continue
working towards a polio-free country despite enjoying the status since
2003.

The country has so far vaccinated at least 95 percent of the children
under five, the authorities claimed.

The last case of wild polio was reported in Myanmar in 2000.

____________________________________

July 9, Irrawaddy
Burma’s Uranium lab lack health safeguards - Htet Aung

Employees in Burma’s uranium extracting laboratory under the Ministry of
Science and Technology are working under conditions hazardous to their
health, according to a Burmese news broadcast.

The employees in a uranium laboratory in Aler Township near Naypyidaw, the
new capital of Burma, are extracting Uranium Oxide U3O8 without sufficient
health protection devices, according to a letter written by laboratory
employees and broadcasted Sunday by BBC Burmese Service.

Uranium 3O8 is basically Uranium ore after dirt and other rocks have been
removed for Uranium processing.

The minister’s office declined to comment when contacted by The Irrawaddy
on Monday.

Burma has announced that it will build a 10-megawatt nuclear research
reactor fueled by less than 20 percent uranium-235 with the help of
Russia’s federal atomic energy agency, Rosatom.

The regime publicly confirmed in the early 2000s that uranium deposits
have been found in five areas of the country: Magwe, Taungdwingyi,
Kyaukphygon and Paongpyin in Mogok, and Kyauksin.

The ministry, which was set up in October 1996, is headed by U Thaung, an
extreme nationalist and a graduate of Defense Services Academy Intake 1.
The Department of Atomic Energy under the ministry is responsible for
carrying out research for the development of nuclear technology.

____________________________________
ASEAN

July 9, Malaysiakini
Asean builds muscle to restrain Burma - Yoges Palaniappan

Burma’s membership in Asean cannot be revoked at the moment even though
its actions have smeared the good name of the regional association, the
Dewan Rakyat was told today.

“We know Myanmar (formerly known as Burma) is a silent enemy to Asean and
our country’s international image, but that doesn’t mean that it is not a
member of Asean or the United Nations” said parliamentary secretary to the
foreign affairs ministry Ahmad Shabery Cheek.

“Although the conflicts in Myanmar involve human rights and democracy,
they can be resolved instantly. That is why sometimes Asean has defended
Myanmar, but we have stopped doing so now.

“Myanmar has even been taken to the UN Security Council, but China and
Russia used their veto power against punishing (its government).”

He said this in response to M Kulasegaran (DAP-Ipoh Barat) who asked when
Asean would expel Burma for abusing human rights and carrying out house
arrests of political dissidents.

Ahmad Shabery explained that, at this stage, the ministry hoped that the
soon-to-be-formed eminent persons group - which will set out the basis of
the Asean Charter - will come up with solutions to the situation.

The charter will give legal room and create a framework to deal with
issues related to human rights in the region.

“Its constitution will enable supervision of errant member-states,
followed by action,” he explained, without going into detail because the
mechanism is still at its formative stage.

However, he said it would highlight the two issues that Burma has always
ignored, poverty and human rights.

“The charter will enable us to say ‘Enough is enough, Myanmar...action
will be taken if you don’t comply’,” he said.

He further said Burma has been urged to resolve its democracy-related
issues and support Asean initiatives that are intended to help the country
to show that it is sincere about reform.

Member-states have also expressed regret over the government’s decision to
extend the house arrest of democracy leader Aung San Suu Kyi, up to May
next year.

“Despite constant attacks on its policies by many developed nations and
NGOs, Myanmar wants to achieve its ‘Road Map to Democracy’ in its own
way,”
he added.

____________________________________
INTERNATIONAL

July 6, United Nations News Centre
UN agency chief renews call for release of jailed journalist in Myanmar

The head of the United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural
Organization (UNESCO) today renewed his call to the Government of Myanmar
to release U Win Tin, the prize-winning journalist who has been in jail
since 1989.

"It's a sad anniversary of the one that marks the arrest, 18 years ago, of
this figure of Burmese journalism," said Koïchiro Matsuura,
Director-General of UNESCO, which awarded the Guillermo Cano World Press
Freedom Prize to the journalist in 2001.

"U Win Tin is today an old man and his state of health has deteriorated,"
said Mr. Matsuura, repeating his call for the Burmese authorities "to show
compassion and free him."

A former editor of the daily newspaper Hanthawati, U Win Tin was
vice-chair of the Myanmar Writers' Association before he was arrested in
July 1989 and accused of belonging to the banned Communist Party of the
country. He was sentenced to 14 years jail. In 1996 he received an
additional sentence of five years for breaking prison regulations
prohibiting the possession of writing materials.

According to the International Freedom of Expression exchange,
representatives of the International Committee of the Red Cross have not
been able to visit U Win Tin or other Burmese prisoners since the start of
2006.

UNESCO is the only UN agency with a mandate to defend freedom of
expression and press freedom, and Mr. Matsuura has issued frequent
condemnations of the murder and detention of journalists around the world
in recent months.

____________________________________


July 9, Shan Herald Agency for News
Sydney: Funds and awareness raised for IDP of Burma

Fund raising helps increase community awareness on internally displaced
people, and creates opportunity for refugee community to gather at food
fair and musical evening event, said an event organizer.

The Sydney based Australian Karen Organisation (AKO) organized a
fundraising program for IDP in Burma. The funds raised go through the
Committee for Internally Displaced Karen People (CIDKP) and the Free Burma
Rangers (FBR) and are directly distributed to displaced people in the
Karen State, said Tamla Gaw, an event organizer and a vice Secretary of
AKO at the event at Parramatta Town Hall, western Sydney.

More than 300 people came to enjoy the delicious foods from both ethnic
Karen and Burmese refugee communities at the event. The participants were
entertained by a live music show from the Young Karen Band.

Documentaries revealing the critical condition of displaced people in war
zone were also presented. Tragic stories shown on the screen highlighted
the real picture of the situation on the battle field, in which innocent
people are being killed, and their houses are burned and destroyed by the
Burmese army.

According to the organizer, the event is not just a normal fundraising
project; it also aims to raise awareness to the Sydney community about
people’s lives in Karen state. Hundreds of thousands of people have been
displaced, and as the forced relocation continues every day, these people
desperately need help. Spreading these concerns will urge more people to
donate money to the cause of displaced people.

“We will raise thousands of dollars after other expenditures. Some
Australian guests donated up to $400” said Gaw.

The event allows Sydney’s Karen and Burmese communities, who have
different backgrounds, to gather occasionally with the hope of sharing one
another’s experiences.

Some people come to Australia for reasons that may be unrelated to
politics, and they are not aware of the issues of refugees and internally
displaced people.

The Karen communities in other Australian cities and in western countries
such as the US, Canada and within Europe organize similar fundraising
programs annually.

____________________________________
OPINION / OTHER

July 7, Mizzima
An uncertain future yet road to democracy clear - May Ng

On 7 July 1962, a few months after the political coup and killing of
elected Shan politicians, the military opened fire on students in Rangoon
University campus. And the long and harsh political repression had begun
in Burma.

Even though they continue to suffer the abysmal treatment, 88 generation
students yet again raised another clarion call for a true national
reconciliation and democracy transition in Burma. Myanmar's troubled road
to democracy via the faulty constitution-drafting National Convention has
been long tortuous and still has not offered a solution for peaceful
national reconciliation.

In his remarkable work 'Public Choice', Robert D. Cooter, a renowned
political economist reminded us that "constitution is the highest law of
the land. And therefore political constitutions can cause suffering on a
vast scale or lay the foundation for a nation's liberty and prosperity;
thus, making, amending, and interpreting constitutions is a political game
with high stakes."

The military recently warned of a possible terror attack during the
ensuing final session of the National Convention; exposing their own
uncertainty about Burma's political situation. In a true democracy, the
contending political opposition duel each other within the framework of a
political system, instead of resorting to terror and violence; true
democratic governments do not have to fear violence from their legitimate
political opposition. Political contests are resolved through rule of law,
and open, vigorous debates.

Thomas Carothers, a prominent authority on the subject of Democracy said
that "for democracy to be meaningful, citizens must have some real choices
between alternative sets of both the people and policies. And that the
problem of representation is-in establishing governments that are not
merely elected by the people but actually serves the people."

The Myanmar government is planning to buy a 10-megawatt nuclear reactor
with the help of Russia's federal atomic energy agency Rosatom. Professor
Richard Broinowski, an expert in nuclear proliferation, observed during a
television interview that, "a secretive, corrupt and very anti-democratic
junta in Burma bringing nuclear technology into the South-East Asian
region is going to encourage other countries like Vietnam, Thailand,
Malaysia and certainly Indonesia and the Philippines to want to improve
and increase their own nuclear technology."

He also said that one of the conceivable reasons for Burma to be arming
itself with nuclear weapons is as a "deterrence against their neighbour
Thailand and possibly the Chinese if they fall out with them."

To spend hundreds of million up to a billion dollars for an unwarranted
nuclear reactor while most Burmese citizens live well below the poverty
level is reckless and irresponsible; reflecting once again, the failure of
the Myanmar government. Hard earned cash should be spent on improving the
lives of the citizens, first. Spending an exorbitant amount of money on
shifting the capital to Nay Pyi Daw, merely to satisfy the astrologer or
quell the unfounded fear of foreign invasion, and buying an unsuitable
nuclear reactor, would not have taken place under a democratic regime in
Burma.

According to Robert D. Cooter, "under certain conditions majority rule
tends toward the center of the distribution of political preferences," and
therefore, a democratic political system is less likely to make extreme
decisions.

For the same reasons, another political economist Dennis Mueller said that
the greatest advantage of democracy over dictatorship may not be that
democracies outperform dictatorship on average, but that democracies
seldom sink to the depth of misery that one too often observes under
dictators. In an open and democratic society which is accountable to its
people, checks and balances can prevent reckless decisions by the people
in power.

As the world stood at the crest of democracy waves in 1988, Burma was
swept under a powerful political tide from China. Up until the end of Cold
War, Burma's strict political neutrality had more or less allowed the army
to enjoy international support, in spite of the political oppression at
home.

At the height of the Cold War, Lipset's view, "authoritarian governments
were considered more capable catalysts of economic progress. And the
development, in turn, would create the conditions—industrialization,
literacy, and a substantial middle class—that would eventually lead to
stable democracy," gave moral support to the West's Cold War policy of
supporting authoritarian governments that disavowed communism. And
Huntington and Nelson also agreed that, "political participation must be
held down, at least temporarily, in order to promote economic
development."

However, Halperin, Siegle and Weinstein's recent work, 'The Democracy
Advantage,' finally refuted the above claim with new findings that
"democracies have on average, out performed autocracies on virtually every
aspect of development considered."

President Nixon resumed diplomatic relations with China in 1972 and helped
usher in the final days of the Soviet Union and communism, 15 years later.
By 1979 China began to embark on the process of economic reforms.

According to Nobel laureate Amartya Sen, the policies that led to the
growth in the East Asian authoritarian-run nations included openness to
competition, the use of international markets, a high level of literacy
and education, successful land reforms and public provisions of incentives
for investment, exporting, and industrialization.

He said that there is nothing whatsoever to indicate that any of these
policies is inconsistent with greater democracy, and that any one of them
had to be sustained by the elements of authoritarianism. What is needed
for generating faster economic growth is a friendlier economic climate
rather than a harsher political system.

Hard line nationalists in the Burmese military are naturally suspicious of
China and Thailand. It is not surprising to see them spending their hard
currency on enormous nuclear project based on frivolous reasoning.

Except for the U.S. economic sanctions, Burma trades freely with most
other nations. Regardless of enormous pay out from business deals like
Thailand's purchase of natural gas for close to US $1.5 billion last year
a majority of Burmese people remain in desperate poverty.

Burma continues to receive the least amount of foreign direct investment
in Asia. Potential investors are usually wary of the political instability
in Burma.

Without a valid constitution and democratic institutions, Burma will
continue to decline.
The 88 student leaders have shown courage, perseverance, and wisdom, by
standing up to the oppression and asking for political rights in Burma, to
ensure that at the end, people of Burma will be able to achieve genuine
democracy. In spite of their brutal isolation and harsh repression, the
young leaders in Burma have not lost sight of their democratic goal.

They are asking for the first goal of the constitution, necessary
according to the constitutional scholar, Robert D. Cooter, "to impose the
rule of law and protect the liberty of citizens". Cooter said that "after
providing security, legality, and liberty, a constitution can look to the
prosperity of its citizens. To bring prosperity, the constitution must
provide the legal framework for allocating resources efficiently to public
and private goods. The legal framework includes competitive markets for
private goods and competitive politics for public goods. Democracy
provides a framework for alternative conceptions of justice to compete for
the allegiance of citizens."

Burma's future is yet uncertain, but the student leaders still have not
forgotten the promises made to their people, in 1988. The road leading to
a democratic Burma is very clear; it is only a question of will power for
the military to serve the country they have sworn to protect at the
Independence and in 1988.

____________________________________

July 8, Bits of News
A Burmese bomb - Henry Midgley

Last week Burma and the Russian company Rosatom announced a new contract.
Rosatom would build Burma a nuclear power station. This news comes at the
end of a period in which suspicions have been raised about the intentions
of the Burmese regime. Over the last couple of years, both the
universities of Rangoon and Mandalay have added nuclear physics
departments to their faculties and 2,000 Burmese students have been sent
to Moscow to study Nuclear technology. In April of this year Burma resumed
relations with North Korea and dissidents have spotted shipments arriving
from North Korea into Burma, with the US state department reminding the
Burmese that under UN rules the United States is entitled to stop and
search any North Korean ship going to Burma. Russian companies have
discovered uranium in Northern Burma and it looks possible that the
Burmese are delivering uranium to Pyongyang in return either for plutonium
or for nuclear knowhow.

So why have the Burmese regime done it? The Iranians and North Koreans
have become international pariahs- rumours of American strikes on both
countries especially Iran have stirred up fears in both the West and the
Middle East: why would a regime volunteer for such attention? Why would
they volunteer to stand on more precipitous ground with regard to the
United States and the rest of the West? What are they thinking? Personally
I think that there are two reasons why Burma or a similar regime might aim
for a nuclear bomb- their present situation and their future membership of
the nuclear club.

At present Burma is ruled by a military junto with a horrific human rights
record- and thoroughly anti-democratic credentials. Burma is ruled by a
group of people who are thus seen internationally as pariahs- with various
restrictions on their activity from both the American and European
governments- and pressure on both sides of the Atlantic for governments to
shun the regime. There is no question as well that Burma depends for its
position upon the support of some nations within Asia- particularly China
that prop it up despite the anger of the Western public and their
governments.

The interesting issue here is what Burma would therefore lose from
international pressure- actually unless China turned against Burma in a
substantial way- and it has not done so against North Korea- I don't see
any way that Burma might lose from this situation. There isn't something
to lose given that the regime is already under international pressure,
already is subject to sanctions and to disruption of its presence at
international gatherings- so what have they to lose save for an invasion
which few beleive that the West has the energy or inclination to conduct.

Should Burma obtain a nuclear weapon though its regime would gain
substantially. It would give the world an interest in a stable succession
in Burma and the survival of the regime so that the bomb didn't fall into
the hands of more dangerous groups. Furthermore it would give the Burmese
the chance to imitate the North Korean trick- to barter the nuclear bomb
for food and money. From recent American negotiations with both India and
Pakistan the Burmese will have learnt that the possession of a weapon soon
becomes an accepted fact about a country. Furthermore possession of a
weapon could enable the Burmese to threaten neighbouring countries-
Bangladesh say- when it has disputes with them. There is some evidence
that some within the Burmese regime contemplate a more ambitious stance.
They see a new Burmese empire as an end result to look forward to- a
nuclear weapon could become the spearhead for that movement.

The dangers of a Burmese bomb are of course manifold- it would transform
the affairs of a secluded unstable dictatorship into affairs which concern
the stability of the world- like in North Korea instability might be a
prelude to the nuclear weapon falling out of the control of the national
leadership or even worse being used in internal domestic strife. A nuclear
Burma might encourage others in the region to go nuclear- it would raise
the chance of a nuclear Japan, or a nuclear Bangladesh or Thailand. But
notice that the dangers of the bomb are global dangers- whereas the
advantages all rebound to the regime- indeed were the regime to fall
messily they might all die anyway and so the nuclear instability to follow
would hardly be their concern.

The case of Burma points to something very dangerous that for certain
pariah nations it makes sense to go for a nuclear bomb- already excluded
from the global club- they have nothing to lose and may perceive the bomb
as a way to frighten people into making them respectable. For a Western
policy maker allowing that logic to take its course seems to me to be
unwise- Burma may or may not get its bomb, but the fact that the logic
inclines one to suspect it might means that we need to do something about
our diplomacy towards these kinds of regime- to make sure that they do
have something to lose by going nuclear.