BurmaNet News, August 8, 2007

[Editor]

August 8, 2007 Issue # 3263

INSIDE BURMA
AFP: Activists mourn deaths in Myanmar's 1988 uprising
Mizzima News: Activists hark back to 8.8.88 uprising, warns junta of
similar unrest
Irrawaddy: Rights activist complains of harassment at Shwedagon Pagoda
NMG: Land mines prevent villagers from working in farms
KNG: 'Chained-Kachin State' posters pasted in Myitkyina

ON THE BORDER
Kantarawaddy Times: Ceasefire group kills Thai businessman

BUSINESS / TRADE
Irrawaddy: Burma port projects at standstill, say visitors

ASEAN
Xinhua: Myanmar strives for merging into ASEAN integration process

REGIONAL
AP: Myanmar pro-democracy activists, regional sympathizers mark
anniversary of uprising

INTERNATIONAL
AFP: UN hopes Myanmar talks lead to Suu Kyi's release

OPINION / OTHER
Mizzima News: Burma: 8-8-08 - Christopher Smith

PRESS RELEASE
The 88 Generation Students: The 88 Generation Students' Announcement on
the 19th Year Anniversary of the 8888 Democracy Uprising

____________________________________
INSIDE BURMA

August 8, Agence France Presse
Activists mourn deaths in Myanmar's 1988 uprising

About 500 opponents of Myanmar's military regime on Wednesday mourned the
deaths of hundreds killed in a pro-democracy uprising 19 years ago, and
warned that the junta could face renewed public unrest.

The solemn ceremony at the Six Storey Pagoda in central Yangon was led by
former student leaders who had spearheaded an uprising that began on
August 8, 1988.

Many had been in prison until two years ago, but since their release have
embarked on campaigns of civil disobedience with petition and letter
writing drives.

While their actions have been relatively small, the freed student leaders
have also breathed some life into the pro-democracy movement, which has
been largely moribund since the latest arrest of their leader Aung San Suu
Kyi four years ago.

"Today is an important day for us," Min Ko Naing, one of the former
student leaders, said at the ceremony, which was also attended by
diplomats.

In a statement, the student leaders warned that the military's drive to
write a new constitution, which would effectively bar Aung San Suu Kyi
from politics, risked sparking a new uprising in the country previously
known as Burma.

"Another uprising in Burma today depends entirely on the current
constitution drafting process," the statement said.

Min Ko Naing said that the student leaders planned to find more
non-violent ways of opposing the military, which has ruled this country
since 1962.

"We will take some action that the people can participate in," he said.

"These actions will be non-violent, but show the peaceful force of our
will. We have to fight together with the people," he added.

Myanmar's military says it is finalising a new constitution at a
closed-door National Convention, where some 1,000 mostly hand-picked
delegates are meeting outside Yangon.

The junta bills the constitution as the first step on its self-proclaimed
"road map" to democracy.

The current junta took power after crushing the 1988 uprising.

Hundreds or even thousands of people are believed to have been killed when
troops opened fire on mass student protests demanding an end to military
dictatorship.

A month later, Aung San Suu Kyi helped found the opposition party National
League for Democracy (NLD), which won 1990 elections in a landslide. But
the military never recognised the results.

Aung San Suu Kyi, a Nobel peace prize winner, has spent most of the years
since then under house arrest, despite international appeals for her
release.

__________________________________

August 8, Mizzima News
Activists hark back to 8.8.88 uprising, warns junta of similar unrest - Ko
Dee

Over 1,000 Burmese people in Rangoon today mourned as they marked the 19th
anniversary of the historic and bloody uprising on August 8, 1988, where
the army gunned down hundreds of peaceful demonstrators.

Organized by former student leaders of the 1988 uprising, the 88
generation students, the commemoration service at Rangoon's Chauk Htat Gyi
(six storeys) pagoda, brings back memories of those who sacrificed their
lives during the nationwide protest.

Ko Ko Gyi, a former political prisoner and one of the 88 generation
students, said the people attending the solemn service vowed to continue
the struggle for democracy, which cost the lives of hundreds of people.

The 88 students also warned that unless the junta take heed of their calls
for genuine dialogue and implements political reforms, but continues with
its declared roadmap by legalizing its one-sided draft constitution, there
could be an uprising similar to '8.8.88'

In a statement released prior on the eve of 8.8.88, the students said,
"Another uprising in Burma today depends entirely on the current
constitution drafting process."

Meanwhile, the Burmese junta is winding up the 14 year old national
convention, which is tasked with drafting a new constitution.

Despite repeated calls by the opposition including the 1990 election
winning party – National League Democracy – and the 88 generation
students, the junta seems to be determined to go ahead with its declared
seven-point roadmap of which the national convention is the first followed
by referendum and general election.

"We are warning that there could be another uprising similar to 1988, if
the junta's wants to enforce its one-sided constitution which will not
solve the political problems of Burma, and is rigid about amendments in
the future," Ko Ko Gyi said.

The students group, who has been released in recent years from long terms
in prison, said they will continue to engage in peaceful activities and
campaign with the people to boycott the junta's one-sided constitution,
which enshrines the role of military.
"A referendum is not only to give consent but it could also be a platform
for rejection. We will campaign with the people to make use of this
opportunity to express their true desire," Ko Ko Gyi told Mizzima.

However, a veteran Burmese politician and self-style nationalist,
Amyotharye U Win Naing, said with the junta's scrupulous ways of getting
things done, he doubted whether the people will have the luxury of freely
expressing their choice.

"Even in voting, there is no guarantee that the people will have a free
and fair system. The people could be deceived even while casting their
votes," added U Win Naing.

__________________________________

August 8, Irrawaddy
Rights activist complains of harassment at Shwedagon Pagoda - Htet Aung

Prominent Burmese human rights activist Su Su Nway complained on Wednesday
that she had been harassed by security police and a photographer while
visiting the Shwedagon pagoda in Rangoon on Tuesday.

Su Su Nway, 34, told The Irrawaddy in a phone interview: “I was thoroughly
scrutinized by the pagoda’s security police at the eastern gate when I
came to the pagoda. Then, while I was worshipping, an unknown photographer
repeatedly took my photo, without asking for my permission.”

She said she appealed to pagoda officials to arrest the photographer, but
her request was ignored. She also spoke to a crowd of several hundred
people gathered at the pagoda’s eastern gate, telling them that although
“nobody is above the law” the authorities were ignoring the harassment.

Su Su Nway, a member of the opposition National League for Democracy, won
last year’s
John Humphrey Freedom Award. She is an active participant in campaigns for
the release of NLD leader Aung San Suu Kyi, and was arrested along with
about 20 other activists in May for taking part in a demonstration in
Insein Township. She was released after three weeks.

She earlier spent 18 months in prison after bringing a legal action
against the local authorities in her village, accusing them of forcing her
and other villagers to repair a road without compensation.

Su Su Nway has also spoken out against harassment of opposition activists
by government-backed motorcycle gangs. Told by the Shwedagon pagoda’s head
of trustees not to make public speeches at the site, she said: “I have to
make the people aware of such harassment.”

____________________________________

August 8, Network Media Group
Land mines prevent villagers from working in farms

Local villagers are fining it extremely difficult to work in the farms
because of land mines planted around Nan Mahuu village, Loi Lin Lay ward
and Loi Kaw Township, said a local.

Since July 27, Loi Lin Lay village based LIB 530 (Light Infantry
Battalion) put touch-mines, step-mines and relinquish-mines around water
springs two miles north-west of Nam Mahuu village, said a local.
Relinquish-mines are dangerous.

"Villagers are afraid of going to the farms because they have planted land
mines around farms. After arriving in the farms we have to release the
buffaloes and cows. Buffalo and cows are known to step on land mines and
have been killed. About 15 buffaloes and cows were killed," a villager
said.

"Farmers requested the battalion to remove the land mines set up by LIB
530 but it turned a deaf ear," he said.

When ethnic armed groups travel they cook near the water springs. So the
Burma Army planted land mines near the springs, local added.

In Kayah state, four men from Shar Daw Township and one woman from De Maw
Soo Township were killed by land mines between March and May, 2007.

____________________________________

August 8, Kachin News Group
'Chained-Kachin State' posters pasted in Myitkyina

Several 'Chained-Kachin State Map' posters have been unusually pasted
around Kachin State's capital, Myitkyina in northern Burma since Sunday,
said local residents.

The posters were pasted at crowded roadside shops, markets and Kachin
Christian Churches in Tatkone, Du Mare, Manhkring and Shatapru Quarters,
eyewitnesses told KNG today.

According to Shatapru residents, some posters put up at the local Baptist
Church have been taken away on Sunday by policemen from N0 (1) police
station in Myitkyina Township.

The posters depict the picture of a hand and the Kachin State map tied by
metal chains to a pole.  There is a bomb near the map and short sentences
written in Kachin language at the bottom of the map, the eye witnesses
added.

"The poster is targetted especially at Kachins and aimed to simulate the
Kachin's current pariah political situation under Burma 's ruling junta,"
a resident of Takone told KNG.

So far no organization has taken the responsibility for distributing the
posters but underground Kachin political activists may have done it,
residents told KNG.

This is the first time that Kachins have started a political movement in
Kachin State after the Kachin Independence Organization (KIO) signed a
ceasefire agreement with the Burma's ruling junta in 1994.

Last month, the junta's Kachin State's Commander Maj-Gen Ohn Myint
publicly rejected the Kachin Independence Organization (KIO)'s demand for
autonomy of Kachin State at the ongoing final session of the National
Convention.

At the same time, both the Burma Army and KIO are stepping up fresh
recruitment in the military in Kachin State, added locals.

Meanwhile, Commander Maj-Gen Ohn Myint unofficially is trying to convert
the name "Kachin State" into "Northern Division" by telling military
government personnel in Myitkyina "Don't say 'Kachin State' and don't use
the word 'Kachin State' in your offices, any more".

Now, residents of Kachin State are worried about inevitable civil war once
again between the Burma's ruling junta and the KIO, said locals.

____________________________________
ON THE BORDER

August 8, Kantarawaddy Times
Ceasefire group kills Thai businessman

A Thai businessman, Pi Toi from Hto Phu Kyeing village, Mae Hong Song
district was killed last Friday by the Karenni Nationalities Liberation
Front (KNLF) a ceasefire group. He was a business partner of the KNLF.

Pi Toi (50) was picked up at night and killed on the road by the KNLF.

"A person was ordered by the KNLF to pick up Pi Toi. He came to Hto Phu
Kyeing village at night. Pi Toi's wife asked why he had come at night. He
said he was hungry and requested food. After he ate, he requested Pi Toi
to accompany him because he was afraid to go back alone. Her husband did
not come back", said a local on condition of anonymity.

The son and daughter of the couple live in Huy Lon village. Pi Toi's wife
asked them to look for their father. Later they found Pi Toi's body on the
road, the local added.

Pi Toi was in business with the KNLF for a long time. The motive behind
the killing was a dispute over profits, said a Thai intelligence agent.

"The murder is being investigated. KNLF had brought lead and asked him to
sell it. It is not clear whether he gave the KNF the sale proceeds. It is
possible that the KNLF sent somebody to pick up money but he did not get
it from Pi Toi. He was killed after a quarrel," said the Thai intelligence
agent.

Pi Toi was a business partner of the KNLF and dealt in lead, hard-wood
among other things. He often sent material that the KNLF wanted. According
to his relatives, KNLF killed him because he could not pay back his debts
to the organization.

His funeral will be held on Wednesday at a temple in Huy Lon village, Mae
Hong Song.

____________________________________
BUSINESS / TRADE

August 8, Irrawaddy
Burma port projects at standstill, say visitors - William Boot

Chinese media continue to report about port developments along Burma’s Bay
of Bengal and Andaman Sea coasts, yet eyewitness accounts from the region
indicate that little or nothing is happening.

India is supposed to be investing a huge sum to rebuild and expand the old
British colonial rice port of Sittwe on the west coast of Arakan State in
western Burma.

However, a foreign traveler just returned from Sittwe says “there were no
signs of redevelopment along the shore in and around Sittwe at all.”

Chinese enterprises and the regime-friendly Asia World Company are
planning to collaborate in building a deep-sea port at Kyuakphyu on the
island of Ramree.

And just this week the Chinese government newspaper Peoples Daily reported
that Burmese authorities are “conducting a feasibility study to build a
deep-sea port in the coastal town of Dawei,” quoting Naypyidaw Ministry of
Transport officials.

The report says the plan is to develop maritime trade between neighboring
countries, including China’s southwest region.

Dawei was supposed to have been the subject of a port development
feasibility study by India in 2005 in support of plans by the New Delhi
government to also promote coastal trade.

India wanted to use Dawei as a stepping stone for trade across the narrow
sector of Burma’s southeast into Thailand to Bangkok and other regions of
Southeast Asia, bypassing the longer and more expensive sea route via the
Malacca Strait and Singapore.

Between times, nothing much more has been heard of the New Delhi-sponsored
Dawei study, although India continues to speak volumes o­n its “Look East”
economic policy.

More recently, New Delhi undertook to invest US $100 million in developing
Sittwe, partly to benefit its gas interests in the nearby Shwe gas fields
offshore—in which two Indian state companies have stakes—and to provide a
sea access for its isolated northeastern states via the Kaladan River,
which spills into the sea beside Sittwe.

However, a German journalist who visited Sittwe at the end of July told
The Irrawaddy there is no sign of the much-trumpeted $100 million
redevelopment planned by India, and nothing to indicate that barely 60
kilometers offshore is one of the biggest gas discoveries in the region.

The Shwe gas field, with an already independently confirmed recoverable
reserve of more than 6 trillion cubic feet (200 billion cubic meters) will
be dependent on Sittwe if production is to begin by 2009, as planned.

“Sittwe is a dirty and very poor fishing town,” said the visitor, who
spoke on condition of anonymity in view of the restrictions placed on
foreign reporters by the regime.

“There were no signs of redevelopment along the shore in and around Sittwe
at all. Run-down fishing vessels are moored along the Kaladan River. The
jetty nearby has an old passenger boat and two or three medium-sized cargo
boats arriving every second day or so.

He added: “Most vessels sailing up and down the river mouth are small
sailing boats or longtail boats. The street running along the shore of the
Kaladan river is still badly damaged from a storm a couple of month ago.
No one seems too keen to repair it.”
The Peoples Daily report claims Burma “is also conducting a survey to
build another deep-sea port on the Maday [Ramree] Island in Kyaukphyu to
serve as a transit trade center for goods destined for the port cities of
Chittagong, Rangon and Calcutta.”

The report also said Kyaukphyu would be on a proposed land route
“connecting southwestern China's Kunming in Yunnan Province with Burma’s
Sittwe through Mandalay.

“The overall road link between Myanmar [Burma] and China under study is
outlined as Kunming-Mandalay- Kyaukphyu-Sittwe,” the report said.

However, there are persistent reports that China wants to use Kyaukphyu as
a transit port for crude oil shipments from the Middle East through Burma,
at least as far as the Yunnan provincial capital of Kunming, and possibly
beyond.

“This is not the first time China has sought to portray itself as a
bystander hoping to benefit from Burmese enterprise when it is really the
Chinese who are going to manipulate the Burmese coast for their own
strategic benefit,” said a regional analyst with a Western embassy,
speaking Wednesday on condition of anonymity.

“India has been outflanked by China on buying the Shwe gas, so it is
looking increasingly unlikely that New Delhi would pay the bill to develop
Sittwe primarily for the Chinese benefit,” the analyst said.

____________________________________
ASEAN

August 8, Xinhua General News Service
Myanmar strives for merging into ASEAN integration process

Myanmar, as a new member of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations
(ASEAN), is experiencing inevitably a process of merging into the
integration of the regional bloc like other similar fresh members.

For a decade since its joining of the ASEAN, Myanmar has attached
importance to the development of friendly and cooperative ties with other
fellow members, endeavoring to step forward in accordance with the ASEAN
targets and striving for merging into the integration process.

In line with the international political situation and the growing trend
of economic globalization, Myanmar had made a choice of its own strategy
and adjustment of its policy, formally joining the ASEAN in July 1997.

Myanmar affair experts analyzed that when Myanmar applied for joining the
ASEAN, ASEAN faced pressure from some Western countries. However, in order
to realize the splendid blue-print of "Great ASEAN", the bloc insisted on
admitting Myanmar as a formal member.

Today after a decade, in spite of the fact that ASEAN and Myanmar face
political pressure from the international community because of the
country's democratic process, the bloc, as a whole, has always expressed
its understanding and support for the country.

Since joining of the ASEAN, Myanmar leaders visited member countries for
several times, so did their ASEAN counterparts reciprocally. The exchange
of visits have greatly enhanced mutual understanding and boosted the
development of bilateral ties.

Meanwhile, Myanmar also actively participated multi-lateral ASEAN meetings
and activities and hosted some ministerial meetings and senior officials
meetings of the region.

Despite renouncement for 2006 ASEAN rotating chairmanship due to some
reasons internationally and domestically, Myanmar did not abandon its bid
for merging into the regional integration and implementation of a
seven-step democracy roadmap announced itself.

Economists said that in Myanmar's foreign economic and trade relations,
the relation between Myanmar and ASEAN have come up to an outstanding
status.

According to Myanmar official statistics, as of the end of 2006 since late
1988, Myanmar brought in a total of 14.2 billion U.S. dollars' contracted
foreign investment, of which ASEAN members' accounted for 9.7 billion
dollars or 68 percent. Of the ASEAN members investing in Myanmar, Thailand
stood the first with 7.37 billion dollars, followed by Singapore (1.43
billion), Malaysia ( 660 million), Indonesia (241 million) and the
Philippines (146 million).

Some ASEAN members have become Myanmar's most important trading partners.
According to the Myanmar Ministry Commerce, in the fiscal year 2006-07
which ended in March, Myanmar's foreign trade hit a total of about 7.9
billion dollars, registering a record high in the history. Myanmar's
foreign trade with other ASEAN members reached over 4 billion dollars or
51.2 percent of the total. Thailand stood as its top trading partner with
2.65 billion dollars, followed by Singapore (1.21 billion dollars) and
Malaysia (230 million).

Observers here said that in view of Myanmar's superiorities in terms of
geographical location and rich natural resources as well as an important
strategic position, it is a great significance to the development of
Myanmar and the entire ASEAN as well if Myanmar grasps the opportunity to
merge into the ASEAN integration process as early as possible.

The observers also pointed out that if Myanmar realizes smoothly national
reconciliation, political stability and economic development as well as
further implement successfully its seven- step roadmap announced in 2003,
it will not only be beneficial to Myanmar for its early merging into the
ASEAN integration process, but also contribute to the regional peace,
development and stability.

____________________________________
REGIONAL

August 8, Associated Press
Myanmar pro-democracy activists, regional sympathizers mark anniversary of
uprising

Pro-democracy activists in Myanmar and their supporters across Southeast
Asia marked the anniversary Wednesday of a popular uprising that was
brutally crushed by the military, which retains an iron grip on power.

On Aug. 8, 1988, demonstrations against a 26-year military dictatorship
spread across Myanmar, then known as Burma. The uprising forced dictator
Ne Win from power, but a new crop of generals seized power the next month
and put down the revolt. The junta continues to rule to this day.

Estimates of the 1988 death toll vary because no independent accounting
was allowed. Soldiers showed no hesitation in shooting into crowds on
Yangon's streets, and hundreds, perhaps thousands, are believed to have
died nationwide.

It was during the events popularly known as the 8-8-88 uprising that Aung
San Suu Kyi, daughter of Myanmar's independence hero Aung San, was
propelled into the political limelight, and helped found the National
League for Democracy party to challenge the army's rule.

More than 500 people, including NLD members, veteran politicians and
diplomats attended a religious ceremony Wednesday at a monastery in
Yangon, while dozens of plainclothes security officers videotaped the
event.

Security in Yangon was tightened with police and soldiers deployed on
major roads, and road blocks were expanded outside the dilapidated villa
where Suu Kyi is currently held under house arrest.

The junta called elections in 1990 but refused to recognize the landslide
victory of Suu Kyi's party. Suu Kyi, 61, who won the 1991 Nobel Peace
Prize, was last detained in May 2003 after her motorcade was attacked in
northern Myanmar by a pro-junta mob. She has spent 11 of the past 18 years
in detention.

In the Philippines, about 25 protesters gathered in front of the Myanmar
Embassy in Manila to commemorate the uprising.

"Nineteen years have passed but justice remains bleak for the victims of
that 8-8-88 massacre. Until now, the peoples of Burma are living in the
climate of fear," said Egoy Bans, a protest leader.

A similar protest was staged by about a dozen Myanmar exiles at their
country's embassy in the Thai capital Bangkok.

Some 100 protesters in Malaysia rallied Tuesday outside of the embassies
of China and Russia, urging those countries and India to cut support for
Myanmar's government until democracy is restored.

Most Western democracies shun the military regime, applying economic and
political sanctions against it because of its poor human rights record and
failure to hand over power to a democratically elected government.

____________________________________
INTERNATIONAL

August 8, Agence France Presse
UN hopes Myanmar talks lead to Suu Kyi's release

The UN special adviser on Myanmar said Wednesday he hoped the junta's
ongoing constitutional talks would eventually lead to the release of
detained democracy leader Aung San Suu Kyi.

Ibrahim Gambari said that even though her party was not participating in
the junta's National Convention, he hoped that the talks would eventually
lead to her release from house arrest.

"The international community would have preferred a more inclusive
process, but nonetheless it's an important event," Gambari said of the
talks.

"We hope that that will lead to even more progress on the political front,
including the release of detained persons, including ASSK," he said,
referring to the Nobel Peace Prize winner by her initials.

Aung San Suu Kyi's National League for Democracy party won elections in
1990 with a landslide victory, but the junta has never recognised the
result.

The generals instead began work on a new constitution, which they say is
the first step on a "road map" toward democracy.

Opponents of the regime believe the charter will effectively bar Aung San
Suu Kyi from politics and cement the military's control.

She has spent most of the last 17 years under house arrest.

The last time the opposition leader -- the only Nobel peace laureate in
detention -- was able to leave her house was November 2006, when the junta
allowed her to meet Gambari for one hour.

Gambari spoke after meeting with Thai Foreign Minister Nitya Pibulsonggram
to discuss ways of prodding the regime to make good on its promises of
democratic reform.

The diplomat arrived here after holding similar talks in Singapore, and is
due to go on to Kuala Lumpur and Jakarta.

____________________________________
OPINION / OTHER

August 7, Mizzima News
Burma: 8-8-08 - Christopher Smith

Flashback to July 19, 1997. The hot, sticky morning air in Rangoon is no
different than usual, but on this day, it is said, history changing events
are to occur. Today, in an extremely rare occurrence, Martyr's Day will
coincide with the Buddhist holiday relating to the waxing of Waso – the
fourth month of the lunar-based Buddhist calendar. And not only will
Martyr's Day and the Buddhist holiday converge, but it is also the 50th
anniversary of the assassination of Aung San and colleagues. In a country
and populace addicted to numerology and astrology, no explanation is
necessary for the apparent auspiciousness of the date.

Throughout central Burma, people, including National League for Democracy
members, speak of the imminent and monumental events that are sure to
transpire in Rangoon; nothing less than total regime change seems assured.
The junta cannot choke the streets of central Rangoon for Martyr's Day as
they are accustomed to doing in fear of the anger that would then spew
forth from the throngs of people headed to Shwedagon, which stands in
close proximity to the Martyr's Mausoleum.

Thus, a mass gathering of people in the vicinity of the most noted
landmark of the Burmese state, on the anniversary of a date of lasting
significance for the political crisis running the country into the ground,
is assured.

And yet
nothing happened.

When contemplating what the political landscape in Burma will resemble on
the 20th anniversary of the 8-8-88 uprising, the specific date is less
important than possible happenings in the interceding 366 days. This
article will briefly consider four players, or factors, that figure
prominently into deciding whether the political landscape will have
changed at all come 8-8-08: junta leadership, external actors, internal
politics and an 'X' factor.

The junta's current leadership is rapidly ageing. Senior General Than Shwe
is 74 years old, while Vice-Senior General Maung Aye has long left his
youth behind. At some point, through death, the handing over of power or
an internal coup, in the relative near future the nominal leadership of
the junta must undergo a transformation. Could a change in leadership
radically alter the political equation inside Burma?

Analysts appear in agreement that the chances of change resulting from an
overhaul in the upper echelons of the military's leadership are slim at
best – especially in the course of the next year. It could be that it is a
question of generational shift, but this would not drastically effect the
situation in the upcoming year.

Ne Win, Khin Nyunt, Saw Maung and others have all left the scene, and yet
the military dictatorship persists, notes military analyst Ronnie Nyein.

Even if the current set of ruling generals were to disappear, "the next
military generation guys will still hold the power unless you could get
rid of the military dictatorship system in Burma," believes Nyein.

External voices have been largely critical of any steps taken by the
military government for the last 19 years. This is unlikely to change as
long as the military remains in power and, significantly, as long as Aung
San Suu Kyi remains under house arrest and the 1990 electoral victory of
the National League for Democracy remains unacknowledged.

"In order to move the country toward democracy and national
reconciliation, the Burmese regime should release Aung San Suu Kyi and all
political prisoners, and initiate a meaningful dialogue with the
democratic opposition and ethnic minority political groups," reads a
statement from the United States State Department.

American and European governments were critical of the reform mechanisms
proposed and enacted by former Prime Minister Khin Nyunt, and they will
remain critical of any undertakings by the military-led government.

China may be the international actor with the largest potential clout, as
it has an active hold and interest in Burma. The Chinese government has
given signs of wanting and willing to push reform onto the junta, but,
critically, such reforms as deemed adequate by the Chinese will in all
likelihood fail to impress Western leaders and organizations.

Thus, the overall dynamics of the external actors is unlikely to alter.

In the ensuing year there are two major questions on the domestic
political scene: the significance of a constitutional referendum and the
following façade of democratic governance, along with the potential
evolution of a nascent civil uprising along the lines of the recent
demonstrations enacted under the leadership of the 88 Generation.

A 'democratic' Burma under the guidance of a constitution resulting from
the conclusion of the National Convention process and a following
referendum on the constitution, which must be assumed will pass, will not
impress opposition parties or vocal international opposition.

However, the success of any constitutional government in Burma will
ultimately rest on how well it is sold and accepted by the Burmese people
themselves. Depending on the reaction, this could either assist in
quelling the chances of any drastic changes inside the country or deepen
the domestic divide and further swell the masses of citizens willing to
stand in civil opposition.

If civil demonstration and unrest is to reach critical mass, then groups
such as the 88 Generation, under the leadership of noted personalities Min
Ko Naing, Ko Ko Gyi and others, will likely play an even more prominent
role. But the success of their campaigns, and others, relies on and
highlights the necessity of mass support across Burmese society.

"The public, the people inside are the main force. We have plans to get
the international pressure, but we regard it as the reserve help. As long
the public doesn't do a mass movement, we will find it difficult to move
forward," stated Forum for Democracy in Burma joint-secretary Ngwe Lin.

And then there is the 'X' factor. As this is an unknown variable, it is
more illustrative to highlight an historical example of what an 'X' factor
may entail than to wildly conjecture on the specifics of what anomaly may
befall Burma.

On December 26, 2004, Aceh, Indonesia and the eastern coast of Sri Lanka
bore the brunt of an enormous tsunami. Both these countries, and regions,
had witnessed prolonged conflict at the time of the natural disaster.
Subsequently, the Acehnese rebels have entered into a peace agreement with
Jakarta, while the conflict in Sri Lanka has only intensified.

The tsunami killed an estimated 170,000 in Aceh, destroying the capital
city of Banda Aceh. In short, it decimated the demographic base of the
Acehnese rebel opposition. This untold of devastation and loss of life
greatly altered the equation necessary to reach an agreement between the
two warring factions, together with the international attention given to
the region in the ensuing massive relief effort.

As Indonesian Foreign Minister Hassan Wirajuda said only weeks after the
disaster: "Behind the cloud there must be a silver lining. Behind the
scenes, a process is happening toward reconciliation."

Yet in Sri Lanka, the years following the tsunami have seen a spike in
violence.

"The tsunami didn't wash away political divisions. In fact it may have
made them worse," said Jehan Perera, director of the National Peace
Council in Sri Lanka.

Thus an 'X' factor is one that drastically realigns the relative strengths
and positions of actors, resulting in a new matrix which may or may not be
conducive to major political developments.

Four criteria have been briefly considered. If substantive change is to
come to Burma in the next year at least one of these criteria will have to
play a major role, though in all likelihood change will entail events
across multiple variables.

The military regime, National League for Democracy, Western governments
and activists are currently so entrenched in a climate of political
polarization, that the catalyst to a Burma in 8-8-08 looking appreciably
different from the one today likely must be initiated from one of the
other sectors examined: internal, civil opposition or following in the
wake of some traumatic, and currently unforeseen, event.

Otherwise, subtle and cosmetic alterations will fail to fundamentally
transform what will remain a militarily dominated failed state of
political exclusiveness and oppression.

____________________________________
PRESS RELEASE

August 8, The 88 Generation Students
The 88 Generation Students' Announcement on the 19th Year Anniversary of
the 8888 Democracy Uprising

(1) Today is the 19th year anniversary of the 1988 popular democracy
uprising in Burma, which is remembered to this day as a great event not
only in the history of Burma, but also of the world.

(2) We should learn from the lessons of this history. We need to learn and
review logically and without prejudice about the immediate and accumulated
causes that forced the uprising to be born.

(3) Thousands of peaceful democracy activists, including students, monks
and peoples from all walks of life, were killed or injured during the 8888
uprising. Thousands of families were brutally broken by the tragedies as
family members were taken to prisons, fled to the borders to live in exile
or were killed.

(4) A State Constitution is key to shaping the political, economic and
social life of the country. The 1974 Constitution, which cemented the
single-party dictatorship and its closed-door economic policy, was created
by the previous dictator Ne Win, while politicians who held different
opinions were put in prisons.

(5) This was the reason why Burma, a country with the most potential to be
developed among the Southeast Asian nations and other newly-independent
countries, became the poorest one.

(6) By making it extremely difficult to amend, the 1974 Constitution did
not have enough flexibility to timely solve the political, economic and
social problems that led to a general crisis.

(7) Both, those who govern and who are governed, had to suffer the
consequences as a result of having a Constitution which was drawn by force
and intentionally designed to be difficult to amend.

(8) Therefore, the military government had recognized the demands of the
people of Burma, who led the 1988 popular democracy uprising. It had
promised to implement a multi-party democratic system and market economy
when it came to power.

(9) History does not want us to move backward, but to move forward step by
step. Today citizens of Burma are the best witnesses of this history. They
can compare the situations in 1962 when General Ne Win staged a military
coup and in 1974 when a single-party dictatorship emerged from the
Constitution.

(10) The 8888 popular democracy uprising in Burma was born because of the
peoples' unhappiness with the 1974 Constitution. It is true that another
uprising in Burma today depends entirely on current constitution drafting
process.

(11) Therefore, we, the 88 Generation Students, would like to attest that
preventing the negative consequences of another disempowered and
detrimental State Constitution will be the duty of all people of Burma.

The 88 Generation Students
88generation at gmail.com
Rangoon (Yangon), Burma (Myanmar)
Ref: 15/ 2007 (88)