BurmaNet News, August 16, 2007

[Editor]

August 16, 2007 Issue # 3268

INSIDE BURMA
Mizzima News: Prominent Chin politician faces house demolition notice
Irrawaddy: Business, transport in Burma hit hard by gas hike
DVB: Family claims son signed up for military at 15
Irrawaddy: Junta commander opposes KIO amendments to NC guidelines
DVB: Guards demand money from Insein prisoners
Xinhua: Myanmar leader meets Chinese PLA goodwill delegation

BUSINESS / TRADE
Irrawaddy: Burma's skyrocketing gas prices caused by 'Incompetence,' say
analysts
AFP: Two killed in Myanmar textile factory fire
UPI: India to continue to buy gas from Myanmar

INTERNATIONAL
Mizzima News: U.N. engagement with China over Burma continues

OPINION / OTHER
Irrawaddy: The French connection: More than meets the eye - Alfred Oehlers

____________________________________
INSIDE BURMA

August 16, Mizzima News
Prominent Chin politician faces house demolition notice - Mungpi

That ethnics in Burma are a persecuted lot is evident from the action
taken against a prominent Chin politician. A final demolition notice has
been served on Cin Sian Thang by Kale Township Municipal Corporation in
Burma's Sagaing Division. The authorities insist his house is encroaching
on the street.

The notice, a copy of which has been obtained by Mizzima, by the Kale
Municipal Corporation was sent to Cin Sian Thang on August 9, warning him
of a law suit that would follow unless his house, which the authority
feels is encroaching on to Bogyoke Street of Kale town, is removed before
August 26.

"
 unless Cin Sian Thang removes the portion of the house, which is
encroaching, on or before 26 of August, the municipal corporation in
accordance with 5/93 act, will file a law suit and take legal action,"
said the notice, signed by Soe Naing, Deputy Director of Kale Township
Municipal Corporation.

Cin Sian Thang, an elected Member of Parliament in 1990 general elections
and Chairman of the Zomi National Congress, has earlier been served notice
twice to demolish the portion of his house which has encroached.

Notwithstanding the notice, Cin Sian Thang, a lawyer, had earlier said
authorities have targeted him for his political involvement and stance. He
has said he would fight the case legally.

"If they (authorities) want to construct a wider road and had ordered
every house owner to move out, I wouldn't have complained. But it is not
like that," Cin Sian Thang earlier told Mizzima.

The municipal corporation in June had sent two notices to Cin Sian Thang
to demolish his house in No. 7, 8 ward of Kalaymyo in Sagaing Division.

While Cin Sian Thang could not be immediately reached for comment, his
son, who is currently residing in Rangoon, former capital of Burma told
Mizzima, "We will face the case legally."

Cin Sian Thang, member of Burma's opposition group Committee Representing
People's Parliament (CRPP), has faced several pressures in the past
including canceling of his license to practice as a lawyer. However, Cin
Sian Thang won the case.

____________________________________

August 16, Irrawaddy
Business, transport in Burma hit hard by gas hike - Shah Paung

The sudden rise in gas prices in Burma has had a tumble-down effect in
other areas of the economy by triggering similar increases in transport
costs and commodity prices.

People hang of the back of a crowded passenger bus in Rangoon (Photo:
Reuters)
The cost of public transport in Rangoon and Mandalay has doubled since the
gas hike went into effect, from 50 kyat (3 US cents) to 100 kyat (7 US
cents) in the former capital and from 200 kyat (15 US cents) to 400 kyat
(30 US cents) in Mandalay, according to local residents.

“People who work as craftsmen get 1,000 kyat (75 US cents) per day,” said
one Mandalay resident. “In addition to food costs, they must now pay bus
fees of 800 kyat (60 US cents) each day. I have no idea how these people
will be able to survive.”

The resident added that transportation costs from Mandalay to Pyinmana,
near the new capital Naypyidaw, used to be between 3,100 and 3,500 kyat
($2.30 and $2.60). Now, the price is between 4,600 and 5,500 kyat ($3.40
and $4.10).

A junior office staffer in the Ministry of Construction in Rangoon said
the lowest monthly salary of a government office staffer is 26,000 kyat
per month ($19.6), while manual laborers earn 15,000 kyat ($11.3) per day.
Daily bus fares, however, will now cost them between 8,800 and 13,200 kyat
($6.64 and $9.96) each month.

The high cost of gas has forced some transportation companies and
businesses to complain that they can no longer afford to operate.

Meanwhile, Burma’s ruling junta has also increased the price of compressed
natural gas and diesel fuel, with costs raised as much as three times
their normal rate.

Buses running the highway route known as Shwe Manh Thu Gate, complained to
authorities that they could not continue to operate with the high cost of
fuel. Government officials responded by ordering the company to continue
servicing their routes or risk the confiscation of their work permit.

Increased transportation costs have created confusion and anger at several
of Rangoon’s bus stations. According to residents in the former capital,
three photojournalists taking photographs at a central bus station were
arrested briefly by authorities on Wednesday but have reportedly been
released.

Rising costs have also led many residents to begin hording food supplies
such as rice, the price of which has also increased since the gas hike
went into effect, say residents in Rangoon.

Higher gas and diesel prices have also raised the cost of transporting
goods, where companies in the former capital have been forced to rely on
black market sales of diesel. The price of black market diesel has gone up
from about 3,000 kyat ($2.26) to as much as 5,000 kyat ($3.77).

Price increases have even affected the black market foreign currency
exchange rate, which currently stands at about 1,325 kyat to one US
dollar—up from 1,280 just days ago.

____________________________________

August 16, Democratic Voice of Burma
Family claims son signed up for military at 15

The mother of a 16-year-old boy has filed a complaint with the Minister of
Home Affairs and the International Labour Organization, claiming that her
son was recruited by the Burmese military early last year.

Ma Cho Cho Lwin reportedly filed a complaint alleging that her underage
son had been recruited by military officials from light infantry battalion
106 in Mingalardon who were fully aware of his status as a minor in
January 2006.

Her complaint reportedly alleges that he was sent to a military training
camp in Taungdwingyi, Magwe division, where he was taught along with a
number of other underage boys.

Ma Cho Cho Lwin’s son, who cannot be named because of his age, told DVB
that the military appeared not to care how old he was.

“I told them when I was registering that I was only 15 but they forged all
the necessary documents and enrolled me as a 19-year-old man,” the boy
said.

“Some of the boys attending training with me were even younger—about 13 or
14. They tried to escape but were caught and had their legs chained,” he
said, adding that while he was home on leave, he would be expected to
travel to Pyin Oo Lwin for further training on August 19.

When he came home on leave, the boy said his mother sought help from Ma
Win Pa Pa, a member of the Human Rights Defenders and Promoters in New
Dagon township, who helped her file the complaint.

Ma Win Pa Pa said that the boy's family was doing everything they could to
ensure that he did not serve more time in the military.

“We have also sent a letter of complaint to Naypyidaw, reporting the case
to lieutenant general Thein Sein,” Ma Win Pa Pa said.

____________________________________

August 16, Irrawaddy
Junta commander opposes KIO amendments to NC guidelines - Khun Sam

Burma’s northern commander, Maj-Gen Ohn Myint, has ordered authorities in
Kachin State to instigate public opposition against a proposed amendment
by the Kachin Independence Organization to the basic principles being
drafted by Burma’s National Convention, according to sources close to the
KIO.

In an effort to thwart the ceasefire group’s political demands, officials
with the Kachin State Peace and Development Council have been directed to
document the public’s stance on the issue in townships throughout Kachin
State, the sources said.

A letter expressing opposition to the proposed amendments appeared in late
July, purportedly written by minority Shan residents in Kachin State,
often referred to as “Red Shan.” The letter accused the KIO of trying to
insist on the independence of Kachin State from the central Burmese
military government.

However, sources close to the KIO say that the person behind the letter is
Ohn Myint, who has encouraged local authorities that the group’s proposal
was inappropriate—and who is even reluctant to use the name “Kachin State”
because Kachin is not the only ethnic group living there.

“In our proposal, the suggestions and demands to the National Convention
are very clear,” a KIO central committee member told The Irrawaddy by
phone from the group’s Laiza headquarters on Thursday.

“We are not proposing Kachin State as an independent country. We are just
demanding a genuine federal union,” the committee member said, adding that
the group did receive letters from the Red Shan but that the group thinks
Ohn Myint is responsible for them.

The KIO proposal—a six-page document containing 19 articles submitted to
the National Convention—was made in late July and contained the group’s
complaint that the basic principles adopted for the drafting of a new
constitution overlooked fundamental ethnic minority rights and the
emergence of a genuine federal union in Burma.

The proposal also suggested new principles that affirm a union system is
necessary in Burma, as well as several amendments to the current draft of
the convention’s basic constitutional principles, which included proposed
changes to the structure of the state, the role of the head of state and
an increase in the legislative power allotted to individual states.

Amendments proposed by the KIO were made against the recommendation of the
National Convention’s chairman, Lt-Gen Thein Sein, who told delegates on
the opening day of the body’s final session on July 18 not to seek
amendments to constitutional guidelines agreed on at previous sessions.

State-run The New Light of Myanmar reported on Wednesday that delegate
groups have presented suggestions on matters concerning amendments,
additions and repeals.

However, a KIO liaison officer based in Rangoon who has regular contact
with the group’s five delegates attending the National Convention, said
there has been no discussion about the KIO proposal, though it was
submitted at the beginning of the session.

____________________________________

August 16, Democratic Voice of Burma
Guards demand money from Insein prisoners

The families of several political prisoners in Insein jail said yesterday
that prison officials had stolen money from inmates after they were
ordered to pay for the cost of their detention in cash.

The family member of one political prisoner, who asked to remain
anonymous, said that officials recently ordered the inmates to pay for
prison services with cash and said that 20 percent of all money coming in
would have to be donated to the jail.

“Then, last month, the authorities ordered the prisoners to hand over all
their money, claiming that they were going to spend it on better food for
the inmates,” the family member said.

“So the prisoners handed them the money. But the officials reportedly used
the money for themselves and transferred the inmates to different cells.”

A woman who also recently visited a family member detained in Insein on a
political charge, said that the officials had clamped down on the amount
of food and medicine political prisoners were allowed to receive from
outside.

“They also punished the inmates who were found to have money by keeping
them in solitary confinement,” the woman said.

Officials from Insein prison were unavailable for comment today.

____________________________________

August 16, Xinhua News Agency
Myanmar leader meets Chinese PLA goodwill delegation

Member of the Myanmar State Peace and Development Council General Thura
Shwe Mann met with visiting goodwill delegation of the Chinese People's
Liberation Army (PLA) in Nay Pyi Taw Wednesday with the two sides
expressing wishes to enhance friendly ties between the two countries and
the two armed forces.

The Chinese PLA delegation is led by General Liu Dongdong, Political
Commissar of the Jinan Military Area Command.

At the meeting also attended by Military Attache of the Chinese Embassy
Senior-Colonel Fan Lianfeng, the two sides exchanged views on
international and regional situation.

The Chinese PLA delegation, which will also visit Myanmar's military
institute and technical institute, arrived Yangon on Tuesday on a four-day
goodwill visit to the country.

Myanmar is the first leg of the Chinese delegation's tour to five
Southeast Asian nations. The trip will continue to take the delegation to
Cambodia, Laos, Thailand and Singapore.

____________________________________
BUSINESS / TRADE

August 16, Irrawaddy
Burma's skyrocketing gas prices caused by 'Incompetence,' say analysts -
William Boot

Speculation about the reason for the sudden big increases in retail
petrol, diesel and natural gas prices in Burma is ranging from high global
oil prices to a foreign cash shortage.

But some analysts think it could be a combination of economic
mismanagement and panic in view of stock market plunges around the region.

An analyst with an oil and gas company in Bangkok, speaking on condition
of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the issue, said now was an odd
time to raise prices when global oil rates have been falling for the past
week because of market nervousness over credit problems in the US.

“Oil has come down a few dollars from highs last month, and natural gas is
generally steady because most is bought on long-term contracts rather than
at spot prices,” said the analyst.

“In any case, Myanmar [Burma] is a net exporter of natural gas.”

Only in March this year the Asian Development Bank said Burma was among
several Southeast Asian countries benefiting from high prices for its
natural gas exports. Natural gas is Burma’s biggest foreign currency
earner.

“It’s pretty bizarre for a country with so much energy resources, but then
it’s a pretty bizarrely run country,” said Bangkok-based energy
commodities trader and consultant Collin Reynolds.

“The story circulating is that the generals do not have enough foreign
currency to buy oil abroad. Maybe they don’t have the cash, but there is
nothing to stop them trading some of their much sought after gas exports
for oil.

“If, as we are led to believe, they are going to sell the large Shwe field
gas reserves to China, the Chinese could supply oil in part payment.

“I’m sticking my neck out, but there’s got to be an element of
incompetence involved here. The regime is earning big bucks from its
natural gas sales—more than US $1 billion a year from Thailand alone.”

Ironically, the price for compressed natural gas, used to fuel Rangoon’s
buses, has increased 500 percent, according to a report by Agence France
Press news agency.

Bus operators are now paying 15,000 kyats (US $12) for a tank of fuel,
instead of 2,800 kyats at the beginning of this week.

The Asian Development Bank said in a report on Burma earlier this year
that buoyant and rising gas exports offered the military regime an
opportunity to embark on structural reforms needed to bring about economic
stability to reduce rampant inflation, believed to have been running at
nearly 40 percent before Wednesday’s sharply inflationary fuel rises.

The ADB has warned that further inflation would have a “disproportionate
impact on the large, poor, majority of the population. It could also
prompt further currency depreciation.”

More inflation, which seems inevitable following the fuel increases, will
damage prospects for growth and investment, the ADB said.

The bank said that in view of what it termed "macroeconomic fragility,"
Burma would be highly vulnerable to a downturn in gas export prices—which
hasn’t happened.

“I think what we are witnessing here is an example of a country in a big
economic mess,” said an economic analyst at a Western embassy in Bangkok.
“Regional markets might have the jitters just now over share conversions
to cash because of the US credit crisis, but Southeast Asia is generally
economically stable—if you are not a Burmese general.”

____________________________________

August 16, Agence France Presse
Two killed in Myanmar textile factory fire

Two garment workers were killed and eight people injured when a fire
caused by an exploding boiler swept through a Myanmar textile factory,
state media said Thursday.

Flames engulfed parts of the "Friendship" garment factory in an industrial
zone west of Yangon on Wednesday morning, the Mirror newspaper said.

Firefighters fought the blaze for more than two hours, but two people were
killed and eight others including a fireman were injured and sent to
Yangon's main hospital.

The cause of the boiler explosion in the factory kitchen was not reported.

Military-ruled Myanmar's garment exports have suffered under economic
sanctions, imposed by the United States and Europe because of human rights
abuses and the ongoing detention of democracy leader Aung San Suu Kyi.

Some garment factories still operate, supplying Japan, South Africa and
Latin America, but lower revenue means many rely on old equipment.

Myanmar exported 280 million dollars worth of garments in 2006, down more
than 12 percent from the previous year, according to official figures.

____________________________________

August 16, United Press International
India to continue to buy gas from Myanmar

India says it will continue to import natural gas from Myanmar as it
strives for "energy security" while demand continues to grow.

"In order to achieve energy security for the country, India will continue
to make all efforts for import of natural gas and liquefied natural gas
from all sources including Myanmar," said Minister of State for Petroleum
and Natural Gas Dinsha Patel.

Patel said India would not give up its efforts to buy gas from Myanmar
despite Yangon preferring to do hydrocarbon business with China.

"In the meeting held in Feb 2007 between Myanmar government and
PetroChina, Myanmar decided that the gas from A1 and A3 would be sold to
China through the pipeline route," Patel said in a statement.

"This development was conveyed to the consortium partners by Myanmar
government during a meeting held at Nay Pyi Taw on March 16, 2007. Gas
Authority of India Ltd. impressed upon the other partners and Myanmar
government that its pipeline offer was still the most competitive and
offered optimum value for them due to proximity of India to these fields.
However, Myanmar government stuck to their decision to sell the gas to
China," the minister said.

He said the ministry has keenly pursued the import of natural gas from
Myanmar. The Myanmar government had on March 9, 2006, signed an agreement
with India acknowledging GAIL as a preferential buyer of gas from A1 and
A3 blocs.

Patel said the Myanmar administration invited bids for selling 15.8 mmscmd
of natural gas and GAIL bid for that. But the Myanmar government without
assigning any reason canceled GAIL's bid and invited PetroChina to buy gas
from its two blocs.

____________________________________
INTERNATIONAL

August 16, Mizzima News
U.N. engagement with China over Burma continues

A high ranking United Nations official has left Beijing yesterday
following two days of talks with representatives of the Chinese Foreign
Ministry in which the situation in Burma was raised.

The meeting, between United Nations Under-Secretary-General for Political
Affairs, B. Lynn Pascoe, and Chinese officials, is a continuation of
Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon's comprehensive policy of engagement with
all relevant parties in addressing Burma.

Prior to Pascoe's discussion, most face-to-face dialogue between the
international body and the Chinese government was conducted through the
United Nations Special Representative to Burma, Ibrahim Gambari.

This latest round of discussions brings further attention to the
increasing stress placed on dialogue and engagement by the United Nations,
while also paying notice to the growing role and power of China in
regional and world affairs.

Gambari was in Beijing this past July for talks focusing on Burma. Pascoe
is en route to the Central Asian summit, yet another sub-region in which
the Chinese are seen as critical players.

____________________________________
OPINION / OTHER

August 16, Irrawaddy
The French connection: More than meets the eye - Alfred Oehlers

Since the election of Nicolas Sarkozy, it may appear the French government
is shifting its position on Burma. After successfully negotiating the
release of six Bulgarian medics from Libya, it was announced France had
set its sights on mediating a similar release for Aung San Suu Kyi.

The president's First Lady, Cecilia Sarkozy, also stepped into the
spotlight when it was learned that she exercised a high profile role in
the negotiations and hostage exchange.

Then, in a somewhat unprecedented move, French Foreign Minister Bernard
Kouchner openly criticized TOTAL Oil at a UN-sponsored business leaders’
conference for not doing enough to pressure Burma's junta, the State Peace
and Development Council.

In Rangoon, meanwhile, the opposition National League for Democracy
reports a new, warmer relationship with the French embassy.  The French
ambassador attended the 60th Martyr’s Day ceremonies and extended Bastille
Day invitations to members of the NLD, 88 Generation Students and other
pro-democracy activists.

So, does all this signal a new dawn in French engagement?  Is there reason
to be optimistic about a new French role?

Perhaps. But the escalating controversy over the Libyan prisoner release
should give cause to remain cautious.

As reported in Jane’s Defense Weekly and other sources, it now appears the
release of the Bulgarian prisoners was tied to a secret military agreement
to supply Libya with anti-tank guided missiles and radio communications
equipment.  Worth a total of US $384.8 million, the initial sale
reportedly will be followed by French assistance in building a plant to
manufacture and maintain military equipment in Libya.

This is the first agreement by a Western country to supply arms to Libya
since a European embargo on such sales was lifted in 2004.  And reports
suggest it will not be the last, as a slew of other deals are now likely
to follow.

In the months preceding the prisoner release, the French government had
instructed all French arms suppliers to suspend negotiations with Libya. A
day after the release of the nurses, however, President Sarkozy
immediately flew to Tripoli to sign a series of defense and defense
industry deals, including in the field of nuclear energy.

It appears items at the top of the Libyan shopping list include the new
generation Rafale fighter aircraft, the Tiger attack helicopter, fast
patrol boats, anti-aircraft missiles and radar surveillance equipment.  A
deal has also been struck to upgrade 12 Mirage fighters that were
purchased from France in the 1970s.

The French government has vigorously denied any link between the prisoner
release and these arms agreements—a position maintained by the French arms
companies involved as well as the Libyan government.  But in the political
row that has developed in Paris in the wake of these revelations, it seems
likely the French president will be forced to concede to a parliamentary
inquiry.  More may yet be revealed in this intriguing arms-for-prisoners
affair.

This entire episode should give cause for the pro-democracy movement to
pause and reflect. For a long time now, the movement has made the release
of Suu Kyi an absolute priority. Any assistance in obtaining
this—including from the French—was therefore warmly welcomed.

It appears now that such external assistance almost always comes with
strings attached.  While enlightened humanitarian concern and support for
the ideals of democracy should never be discounted, neither should the
commercial and national interests of those interceding be underestimated. 
Nor should there be an expectation that any such deal will necessarily be
to the disadvantage or detriment of the SPDC.

Indeed, the ‘sweeteners’ that will come with the deal may well strengthen
the SPDC while setting free the iconic democracy leader.

How far will the democracy movement be willing to go in accepting such
trade-offs?

It should be evident that the sorts of items Libya is interested in
procuring will similarly be of interest to the SPDC. Advanced fighter
jets, attack helicopters, fast patrol boats, anti-tank and aircraft
missiles, radar and communications equipment—not to mention the jewel of
them all, nuclear power—all must be on the wish-list of the SPDC.

The possibilities of doing such a deal with the junta would appear
endless. No doubt, many of these items currently fall under the terms of
an EU embargo and hence won't be on the table anytime soon.

But France, and other countries, has much to offer the SPDC.  So how would
the democracy movement respond to a similar deal?  Would the movement be
willing to countenance such a bargain?

What price would it be willing to pay for Suu Kyi’s freedom?

Alfred Oehlers is a security analyst based in Hawaii.