BurmaNet News, August 22, 2007

[Editor]

August 22, 2007 Issue # 3272

INSIDE BURMA
NY Times: Democracy rally held in Myanmar
Mizzima News: Spontaneous demonstration in Rangoon, biggest in decade in
Burma
AP: 13 pro-democracy activists arrested in Myanmar
Irrawaddy: Protests continue in Rangoon
DVB: Protestors march in Rangoon despite arrests
SHAN: Convention to conclude on September 3

HEALTH / AIDS
IPS: Burma's HIV rates falling as funds dry up, say experts

BUSINESS / TRADE
Dow Jones: Daewoo International certifies gas reserves at Myanmar Blocks

OPINION / OTHER
Irrawaddy: Behind Burma's fuel price rise - Alfred Oehlers

PRESS RELEASE
NCGUB: NCGUB supports right to peaceful demonstration, urges junta to
release unlawfully detained activists

____________________________________
INSIDE BURMA

August 22, New York Times
Democracy rally held in Myanmar - Seth Mydans

In a rare public demonstration in Myanmar, hundreds of people marched
today in the country’s largest city to protest steep increases in fuel
costs that have driven up the prices of transportation and commodities,
according to witnesses and news reports.

The protesters in Yangon dispersed after being confronted by a militant
youth group organized by the government that apparently took some of them
away in cars, The Associated Press reported.

It was the latest in a series of small demonstrations against inflation,
price increases and deteriorating living conditions in a country where
public protest has been all but choked off by intimidation and arrests.

The march followed the overnight arrests of 13 dissidents who led an
earlier protest against the price increases, including the leaders of the
88 Generation Students Group.

That group is named for a popular uprising in 1988, sparked partly by an
increase in the price of rice, that led to the killings of hundreds of
people and the emergence of the junta that now rules Myanmar, the former
Burma.

In an unusual public announcement, the government said in state-run
newspapers today that the dissidents had been arrested for “agitation to
cause civil unrest” and that they could face up to 20 years in prison.

Those arrested included Min Ko Naing, one of the country’s most prominent
dissidents, who spent 16 years in prison until his release in November
2004, since which he has been arrested and released again.

“The government is repeating the same mistakes of 1988,” said Aung Zaw, an
exile from Myanmar living in Thailand who edits Irrawaddy Magazine, a
political journal focusing largely on Myanmar issues.

“No announcement, no prior consultation.”

Prices of gasoline, diesel fuel and cooking gas more than doubled last
week, delivering a punishing blow to Myanmar’s population, much of which
lives hand-to-mouth.

“People cannot go to work, bus fares have been raised, children cannot go
to school because their parents cannot afford to pay for their transport,”
said Soe Aung, a member of a Thailand- based opposition group who has
contact with dissidents in Myanmar.

“There have been in recent months other demonstrations by people who say,
‘Why don’t we have regular electricity, why have the commodity prices gone
up high, very high?”’ Soe Aung said.

In 1990, the junta held elections that it lost and later annulled. It has
detained the pro-democracy leader Aung San Suu Kyi under house arrest for
most of the 17 years since then.

Critics say the junta’s economic mismanagement has turned a nation rich in
natural resources into one of the poorest in Asia. Myanmar, which was once
a leading exporter of rice, also has some of Asia’s largest reserves of
natural gas.

In contrast to 1988, the junta appears well-prepared to isolate agitators
and deal with unrest in the streets. It has moved college campuses far
from Yangon, the commercial capital, to disperse the students who have
historically been at the root of political protest.

Last year it moved the capital out of Yangon, also suddenly and without
official explanation, to Naypyidaw, nine hours away from Yangon by train.
One theory is that the move was partly intended to isolate civil servants,
whose participation swelled the protests in 1988.

The fuel price protest today had been announced in advance, and according
to Reuters, the government deployed armed police officers on the streets
of Yangon early in the day.

In addition, truckloads of men from the civilian militia known as the
Union Solidarity and Development Association network, carrying brooms and
spades, took up positions in the city center pretending to be road
sweepers, the news agency reported.

As in the 1988 protests, demonstrators, who numbered about 300, called on
onlookers to join them, witnesses said.

“We are marching to highlight the economic hardship that Myanmar people
are facing now which has been exacerbated by the fuel price hike,” a
protester who identified himself only as Mimi told onlookers, according to
The Associated Press.

According to Reuters, onlookers applauded but did not join the march.

____________________________________

August 22, Mizzima News
Spontaneous demonstration in Rangoon, biggest in decade in Burma

Indian Time - 4:50 p.m - Veteran Burmese politician U Win Naing and
Myanmar Development Committee members led over 400 protestors, beginning
from Hledan traffic point, on a march to Sule pagoda in downtown Rangoon
today. However, at 4:00 p.m. local time, the demonstration was called-off
for the day.

"The situation is that, it is starting to rain and is getting dark, so at
about 4:00 p.m we dispersed. Some people have begun to move out and we are
also going back home now," said the self-styled nationalist, U Win Naing.

At least 100 people have been arrested in different locations in Rangoon
by the authorities today.

3:45 p.m - While the military junta has not used the army to crackdown on
peaceful demonstrators, as was done in the 1988 uprising, the junta has
effectively deployed its stooges, the USDA and Saw Arrshin, who claim to
represent the people of Burma.

Wednesday's public protest in Rangoon was mainly subject to crackdown by
the two junta-backed Burmese civil society organizations – USDA and Swan
Arrshin – who violently attacked protestors, arresting them and forcing
them to disperse. Included among the several arrested are Naw Ohn Hla, Ma
Yin Yin Myat, Ma Cho Cho Lwin, Ma San San Myint, Daw Kyin Yi, Than Zaw
Myint and Ma Htet Htet Oo.

Interview with Daw Tin Yee (one of the protestors)

"I did not see any weapons that the Union Solidarity and Development
Association and Swan Arrshin are using but, what I saw and experienced was
that they used their fists and we were pulled and pushed onto the trucks.
They used abusive language, and snatched cameras. And when they did that
the people started telling them not to act that way. But they forced the
people to get on the vehicles.

Among the many injured were two Monks and a small boy, the boy being hit
so badly that blood streamed down him. Then Ma Nilar Than [wife of 88
generation student Jimmy] said we should disperse as things were getting
worse, so we caught any vehicle and left the place.

The people were brutally beaten and their [USDA and Swan Arrshin] actions
were inhumane. They called themselves the 'people' and did whatever they
wanted. The people on our side were angry with them and told them that
they do not represent the people. Then these people again forced us to
disperse by pulling and pushing. I was also pulled by them and from my
side they pulled me again, so my arms were really badly hurt.

Among those that blocked us and violently beat us, there were people who I
had seen several times in front of our office [NLD office] and those
taking camera records when we used to go to pagodas for prayers.

Civilians and the people applauded us and welcomed our movement, and
therefore, we have faith in the people. We won't let the people down; we
will continue what we have started as we know the expectations of the
people. We will continue with our peaceful demonstration."

2:56 - Authorities have enacted tight security. Two army trucks have been
positioned near Sule Pagoda, in downtown Rangoon, beside Rangoon City
Hall. According to observers, the junta seems to be ready for a vioent
crackdown on protestors.

"They are preparing batons to beat us with, and at every junction there
are many pro-government groups, they are prepared to attack [protestors],"
a Rangoon resident told Mizzima.

2:55 - Demonstration continued in and around the Suule Pagoda and
Shwegonedaing junctions, Hlaing and Hantharwaddy circles.

1:56 p.m - With protestors originating from several parts of Rangoon, from
outlying areas to downtown, sources say the government is considering
imposing a curfew in a bid to effectively control the demonstrations.

12:47 p.m - Su Su Nway – "Special Branch Police have arrived at our
location and I may not be able to give anymore information if I am
arrested". Su Su Nway has not been participating in the protest this
morning. She said she was unable to go out as the Special Branch has been
waiting for her to leave her residence.

12:40 p.m - About 300 protestors marching through the Oat Kyin traffic
point were confronted by over 400 Swan Arrshin and USDA members and
subsequently attacked and forced onto lorry trucks. During the attack at
least seven protestors, including two monks, were severely injured. And
several protestors, including Naw Ohn Hla, Ma Yin Yin Mya, Ma Cho Lwin, Ma
San San Myint, Than Zaw Myint and Ma Htet Htet Oo, were arrested, a
protestor told Mizzima.

"They told us to disperse and tried to load us onto buses. They threatened
us, saying that if we don't disperse, they will use more violence," said a
student protestor.

Protestors said junta-backed thugs turned violent and began severely
beating the protestors.

"I had to flee for my live," a protestor who fled the brutal attack told
Mizzima.

12:15 p.m - A Rangoon protestor has sent an email message to Mizzima,
saying: "This is the Hledan to Insein group. A mass of more than 500 have
reached Hlaing Yadana market. A lady leader who wore a 'Pinni' spoke to
the audience. Most of the people encouraged her. But on the other side
there were soldiers with two lorry trucks and civilian thugs, who get
about 3000 kyat per day as members of groups such as Kyant Phut (USDA) &
Swan Arrshin (peoples' militia). They commanded the people to go back
home. My informer says she has seen a lot of people and thugs, hired with
money, on the Yangon-Insein Road."

12:05 p.m - U Win Naing and his group reached downtown Rangoon near Sule
Pagoda, while the rest are still marching toward downtown. "Our group has
reached near Sule, everything is fine so far but we are not able to start
anything much in downtown yet," U Win Naing told Mizzima.

11:9 a.m - National League for Democracy, Burma's main opposition party,
NLD leaders joining in the demonstration at Hledan.

11:00 a.m - Veteran Burmese politician U Win Naing led over 300 protestors
in a march from eight-mile junction to Heldan traffic point, where they
joined other protesters.

10:50 a.m - "This morning, when I went out to eat some breakfast, I saw a
group of people demonstrating and when I discovered their demands I
realized that it was what we the people of Burma need, so I joined them. I
am from Hlaing Township." – Ko Sithu, a bystander and university student
with an economics major who joined the demonstration, in a telephone
interview with Mizzima.

New Delhi: In what is turning out to be the biggest public demonstration
in Burma in a decade, over 500 people in Rangoon on Wednesday began a
protest march venting the people's grievance against the government's
massive fuel price increase.

Though authorities last night arrested 13 key student leaders, the
demonstrations were organised at various locations in Rangoon – Insein,
Myay Ni Gone, and Hledan - at about 10 a.m. (local time). The agitators
have joined hands to form a larger group in Hledan and marched along the
streets towards Thamine traffic point.

"We are now moving back to Hledan and we will head downtown, where we
expect to join forces with other demonstrators," a protester told Mizzima
over telephone.

A number of other demonstrations were staged in other parts of Rangoon
including South Dagon and San Pya bazaar, he added.

Mizzima was able to procure a live recording of one protester who spoke to
the people at the demonstration saying, "The government has raised fuel
prices without giving any prior notice, and due to this hike, all the
people are suffering. Therefore, we, the 88 generation students, NLD
members, University students, high school students and civilians are
protesting and demanding an immediate roll back in the prices of fuel."

While no particular individuals are spearheading the protest, the
demonstration has been joined by prominent activists including Naw Ohn
Hla, 88 generation student leader Ko Jimmy's wife Nilar Thein, and veteran
politician Amyotharyee U Win Naing.

Nearly half of the demonstrators are women wearing the traditional Burmese
Pinni -- white shirt and plain clothes.

____________________________________

August 22, Associated Press
13 pro-democracy activists arrested in Myanmar – Aye Aye Win

Myanmar's military regime arrested at least 13 activists, including
leaders of a pro-democracy group that staged a rare protest against
massive fuel-price hikes, and could face up to 20 years in prison, the
official media said Wednesday.

The state-run New Light of Myanmar newspaper said "agitators" of the 88
Generation Students group were detained Tuesday night for attempting to
undermine the "stability and security of the nation."

Members of the 88 Generation Students were at the forefront of the 1988
pro-democracy uprising and were subjected to lengthy prison terms and
torture after the rebellion was brutally suppressed by the military.

A Washington-based activist group, the U.S. Campaign for Burma, said in a
release that five university students and three members of another
activist group were also arrested in separate sweeps by the authorities.
The official media did not mention these arrests.

The detentions came two days after the group led more than 400 people in a
protest march through Yangon against the doubling of fuel prices on Aug.
15.

Those arrested included Min Ko Naing, one of Myanmar's most prominent
activists, Ko Ko Gyi, Pone Cho, Min Zeya, Zaw Zaw Min and Nyan Lin Tun,
the newspaper said.

Min Ko Naing, whose name means "Conqueror of Kings," spent 16 years in
prison despite international calls for his release and numerous awards for
his nonviolent calls for democracy in Myanmar.

"Their agitation to cause civil unrest was aimed at undermining peace and
security of the State and disrupting the ongoing National Convention," the
newspaper said, noting this amounted to violating a 1996 law which
mandates prison terms of up to 20 years.

The National Convention is drafting a constitution as a milestone in a
so-called seven-step roadmap to restoration of democracy in Myanmar, also
called Burma. Critics call the process a sham.

Myanmar has been widely criticized for its human rights violations
including the 11-year house arrest of Nobel Peace Prize laureate Aung San
Suu Kyi. The country has been under military control since 1962 which has
crushed several attempts to topple its supremacy.

The 1988 uprising was preceded by public protests over rising rice prices,
a sudden demonetization and other economic hardships.

Three members of the Myanmar Development Committee, which had called for a
nationwide protest against the sudden hikes, were also arrested along with
five university students who were putting up posters demanding the
reduction of prices on fuel and basic commodities, the Washington group
said.

Rumors had circulated in Yangon that a nationwide protest against the
hikes would be staged Wednesday.

The Myanmar Development Committee vowed to the stage the protests despite
the arrests.

A key leader of the group Htin Kyaw has been in hiding but a member of his
group was arrested last night and released two hours later.

Security in Yangon and Mandalay, the country's second largest city, has
been tightened since Monday.

Tension was also reported among teachers and students at schools and
universities, traditional centers of protest, with some parents saying
they would not send their children to school on Wednesday in light of the
rumors.

"Student leaders have tried to reflect the hardship people are facing
because of the fuel price hike. The arrest was a temporary solution. The
government must tackle the root cause of the problems," said Myint Thein,
a spokesman for Suu Kyi's National League for Democracy Wednesday.

The crackdown comes just weeks before the special U.N. envoy for Myanmar,
Ibrahim Gambari, was due to visit the country to report on conditions.

The arrests drew immediate fire from human rights groups.

"The regime has been trying to persuade the international community that
it has a roadmap to democracy and will reform, but this exposes the raw
truth, the regime will tolerate no dissent, not even peaceful protest,"
said the London-based Burma Campaign UK.

"The United Nations must set a deadline for genuine reform, including the
release of all political prisoners. We have had 19 years of regime lies
and 19 years of the international community dithering while thousands of
Burmese people are arrested, tortured and killed," it said.

____________________________________

August 22, Irrawaddy
Protests continue in Rangoon - Shah Paung

Residents of Rangoon angry over a sharp rise in fuel and commodity prices
took to the streets of the former capital on Wednesday in non-violent
demonstrations of discontent that saw more than 150 people detained by
authorities, according to activists and participants in the protests.

Burmese activists shout slogans during a protest in the capital, Rangoon.
[Photo: AFP]

In Sanchaung Township, 88 Generation Students Group member Ma Thet said
the protest there at first attracted only about 100 people but grew larger
as passersby joined the marchers.

Yazar, a youth member of Burma’s main opposition party, National League
for Democracy, also took part in the Sanchaung Township protest and said
that as many as 1,000 people joined the ranks of marchers—some of whom
said they were assaulted by authorities and government-backed civilian
groups.

The demonstrators in Sanchaung were led by prominent female activists Naw
Ohn Hla from the NLD, Nilar Thein and Mi Mi from the 88 Generation
Students Group, and NLD youth member Phyu Phyu Thin, who is also a well
known HIV/AIDS activist.

Ma Thet said several young street vendors and students as young as 14 and
15 also joined the protest.

Naw Ohn Hla and six other women in the group were arrested by authorities
at the end of the march, according to Ma Thet, who added that two of the
protest leaders’ mobile phones were confiscated by authorities the day
before the protest.

“We hold these demonstrations on behalf of the people only to highlight
the problems they are facing,” said Htay Kywe, a prominent 88 Generation
Students Group leader involved in the demonstrations.

During the marches, local police, immigration officials and intelligence
officers monitored the events, taking video and still photographs of
participants while onlookers cheered the demonstrators, said Htay Kywe.

“To support the needs of our people, we are prepared to give and lose
everything,” Htay Kywe added.

The demonstrations came on the heels of a steep rise in gasoline, diesel
and compressed natural gas prices across Rangoon on August 15—in some
cases, prices soared three to five times their normal levels.

A protest that began at Hledan Market in Kamayut Township saw close to 200
marchers make their way to the Oakyin bus stop in Hlaing Township, where
authorities arrested more than 150 participants and took them away in
trucks. Witnesses said that four demonstrators were attacked by
authorities with sticks.

A handful of other demonstrators were arrested during a protest in
Anawrahta Road in Kyauktada Township. The event was supposed to have been
led by activist Htin Kyaw and scheduled to take place in front of Rangoon
City Hall on Wednesday, but the activist never arrived at the protest.

Another demonstration, led by Amyotheryei Win Naing, head of the
opposition National Politicians Group, was also scheduled in downtown
Rangoon on Wednesday.

Prior the demonstrations, Burmese authorities arrested 13 prominent
pro-democracy activists, including 88 Generation Students Group leader Min
Ko Naing and others such as Ko Ko Gyi, Htay Win Aung, Min Zeya, Mya Aye
and Kyaw Min Yu. Their current whereabouts are unknown.

The Thailand-based Assistance Association for Political Prisoners (Burma)
on Wednesday condemned the military government for arresting demonstrators
and student leaders.

According to a report on Wednesday in Burma’s state-run daily newspaper
The New Light of Myanmar, authorities arrested the student leaders under
the 1996 Act 5/56 and could face up to 20 years in prison.

While several Burmese pro-democracy activists in exile have said they will
hold protests in front of Burmese embassies, sources in Rangoon said
today’s demonstrations will continue in coming days.

____________________________________

August 22, Democratic Voice of Burma
Protestors march in Rangoon despite arrests

Almost 500 people have started a demonstration against the government’s
decision to increase gas prices and are currently marching along Insein
road towards Thamine junction in Rangoon.

Bystanders told DVB this morning that the activists started walking from
Myay Ni Gone, Hledan and Insein in separate groups at about 9:20am before
joining to form a larger group somewhere in Hledan.

Almost half of the protestors are reported to be women with the wife of
arrested 88 Generation Student Ko Jimmy, Nilar Thein, and well-known
activist Naw Ohn Hla also marching. The protestors are all reportedly
wearing traditional Burmese Pinni, white shirts and plain clothes.

“We are here peacefully demonstrating against the hiking of the petrol
prices, which have impacted hard on everybody,” one protestor was heard
saying by DVB reporters.

“At midnight last night our leaders were arrested but we will continue
what we vow to carry out today and hopefully they would be released soon,”
another protestor said.

Large numbers of police are believed to be following the protests and
taking photos but there have been no reports so far of government
interference.

Several demonstrators told DVB that they planned to stop briefly at the
Thanlan bus stop in Hlaing district to listen to activist speeches before
heading to an unknown location.

____________________________________

August 22, Shan Herald Agency for News
Convention to conclude on September 3

The 11th and concluding session of the Burmese military junta-organized
National Convention is scheduled to wind up on Monday, September 3,
according to a source close to some of the delegates.

"Actually we could have wrapped all of it up in a day," Lt-Gen Thein Sein,
Chairman of the National Convention Convening Commission, was quoted as
saying. "But there's a need to make it look good, isn't there?"

The convention delegates would then travel to the new capital, 244 miles
north of Rangoon, to attend a dinner party hosted by Senior General Than
Shwe before their departure for home.

As to whether a constitution drafting commission would be appointed before
the end of the convention, the delegates were unable to answer. "As far as
we know, it has already been drafted," said one.

Regarding the increasing tension with the Wa and Kachin ceasefire groups,
one delegate said that the junta generals appeared to have been more
irritated by the Kachin's 19-point proposal for greater autonomy than the
Wa's refusal to lay down their arms. "After all, they (the generals) may
still need the Wa in their war against the SSA (Shan State Army) South,"
he said.

But if one thing is common among the ceasefire groups, it is that they are
not ready to surrender their arms unless their demands for state rights
and democracy are met, according to the delegates.

The National Convention avowedly to lay down constitutional principles was
first held on January 9, 1993. According to comedians poking fun at the
ruling military council, the National Convention is the only thing that is
"longer than Samsara (the Wheel of Rebirths and Deaths)."

____________________________________
BUSINESS / TRADE

August 22, Dow Jones Newswires
Daewoo International certifies gas reserves at Myanmar Blocks - In-Soo Nam

South Korea's Daewoo International Corp. said Wednesday it has completed
the appraisal of natural gas reserves at its Myanmar blocks.

U.S.-based international energy certification agency Gaffney, Cline &
Associates certified the gas reserves in the two gas blocks offshore
Myanmar at 4.53 trillion to 7.74 trillion cubic feet, Daewoo said in a
regulatory filing.

Daewoo had earlier estimated the reserves at 5.7 trillion to 10 trillion
cubic feet.

Daewoo holds the operating rights to Myanmar's two large offshore gas
blocks A-1 and A-3, with a controlling 60% stake. It is followed by
India's Oil & Natural Gas Corp., which holds a 20% share, and GAIL (India)
Ltd. with 10%. Korea Gas Corp. holds a 10% interest.

Daewoo said it will start making investments in gas production facilities
at the two blocks now that the size of the gas reserves has been
certified. The company didn't provide information about the amount of the
investments.

Daewoo also said it is in talks with the Myanmar government on the export
of natural gas developed from the blocks. The gas will come from Block A-1
in the Shwe and Shwe-Phyu gas fields and Block A-3 in the Mya area.

The company said a total of three companies from China, India and Thailand
had shown interest in June in buying gas from its Myanmar blocks. By the
end of this year, it will choose just one buyer, which will then transport
the gas to its own country via pipeline.

____________________________________
HEALTH / AIDS

August 22, Inter Press Service
Burma's HIV rates falling as funds dry up, say experts - Johanna Son

Burma is seen as a reclusive country whose real HIV and AIDS situation is
a deep, dark secret. But top Burmese officials, independent experts and
AIDS researchers here painted a picture of a country that is making
progress, despite what some called its "unethical" abandonment by
international AIDS organizations.

At a discussion at the 8th International Congress on AIDS in Asia and the
Pacific (ICAAP), participants heard information showing that HIV
prevalence rates in Burma have been falling among some groups—intravenous
drug users, mothers who passed on the virus to their babies and military
recruits.

Experts said that a lot of resources are needed if Burma is to continue
with its efforts to address HIV and AIDS. It is hard pressed because many
donors and external agencies have restrictions on aid going to the
military-ruled country, whose human rights record has been under fire by
different governments and groups.

"Myanmar [Burma] is the lowest recipient of overseas aid in the world" and
it needs help, "otherwise, tens of thousands of people will die," said
Frank Smithius, the Medecins Sans Frontieres (MSF)-Holland's country
representative for Burma. More than 20,000 people die each year of AIDS in
the country.

Challenging oft-cited concerns that aid to Burma cannot reach its
beneficiaries, Smithius, who has worked in Burma since 1994, argued that
HIV and AIDS are a humanitarian issue and stressed that "foreign aid can
reach the people of Myanmar effectively."

"Projected resources are not sufficient to fund further scaling up," said
Min Thwe, program manager of Burma's National AIDS Program.

For 2007, Burma's government has US $28 million for its work on HIV and
AIDS, but needs $ 41.7 million. In 2008, he said, the government needs
$57.9 million but can only identify sources for getting $26.5 million.

Funding for HIV and AIDS programs in Burma comes from some foreign
governments and development agencies and some international non-government
and humanitarian groups. The World Bank and Asian Development Bank are not
present in the country.

Burma's Deputy Health Minister Mya Oo said the government was trying its
best despite resource constraints, especially after the Global Fund to
Fight Malaria, Tuberculosis and AIDS "unilaterally and abruptly
terminated" its program in August 2005. The fund said it could not carry
out its programs because of restrictions by the junta.

Asa Andersson, the regional adviser for HIV and AIDS for the Swedish
government, said Sweden decided to continue working in Burma even after
the Global Fund left.

"It's important to show that resources are reaching beneficiaries," he
said. "If you're able to show that, then maybe other donors would be there
[in Burma] too."

Citing preliminary results, Wiwat Peerapatanapokin, an epidemiologist with
the Policy Research and Development Institute in Thailand who has been
part of estimation exercises of HIV and AIDS in Burma, put the HIV
prevalence rate there at 0.67 percent as of 2007, after reaching a peak in
2000. This translates into 230,000 adults living with HIV and AIDS, 6,000
children and 13,000 new infections among adults, he said.

These new figures are in contrast to previous estimates of up to 2.2
percent HIV prevalence rates in the country of 50 million.

Mya Oo said that intravenous drug users with HIV fell from 62.8 percent in
1992 to 34.4 percent in 2004. This has now stabilized at about 40 percent,
Wiwat said.

He added that while HIV prevalence peaked among pregnant women at 2.5
percent in 2000, it now stands at 1.5 percent. HIV prevalence rates among
new military recruits climbed to 2.5 percent in 1997-98, and fell to 1
percent in 2006.

"The HIV epidemic in Myanmar is declining, but it has been happening
slowly in the last two years," Wiwat pointed out, calling the epidemic a
"long-term one" that has already impacted the low-risk population.

Burmese officials, medical experts and workers all pointed to the severe
lack of antiretroviral drugs in the country.

Only one out of 10 people get the antiretroviral therapy (ART) they need.

"We have a tremendous gap in ART," Min Thwe said, adding that 6,476 people
get antiretroviral therapy now although "the actual need is for 60,000
people".

ART is usually available only in big cities and is far from affordable for
many who need it, said Naw She Wah, who works with an HIV and AIDS program
in Rangoon. She tested positive for HIV 12 years ago but does not need to
take antiretroviral medication yet.

"Even those who get treatment need food and money, but many have no jobs,"
she told the seminar. "It's said that not everybody has an equal chance in
getting ART."

The need for ART is such that MSF-Holland, which runs clinics in Burma, is
giving medication to some 18,000 people. But in July this year, due to
resource constraints, Smithius said that it had stopped taking on new
people, except for staff and relatives of those already on ART.

He cautioned against relying too much on the figure of 60,000 people
needing ART.

"Many people in Burma don't know they have AIDS, so the number of people
who need ART should be higher," he added. Wiwat put the figure at 73,000
people who need ART.

Min Thwe said that the National AIDS Programme reached more people in its
intervention and education program in 2006. He said it reached up to
36,000 sex workers and 28,542 men who have sex with men, distributed 24
million free condoms, gave out more than 1.8 million needles to drug users
and treated more than 100,000 people with sexually transmitted infections.

But he said he was worried about having enough resources to keep this up,
as the government tries to make its interventions "in line with
internationally accepted means and ways."

Explaining the declines in HIV prevalence in some groups, Wiwat and
Smithius said these were also supported by the fact that reported sexually
transmitted infections among males—whose trend usually reflect the HIV
trend—have also been going down for syphilis, gonorrhea and other sexually
transmitted diseases since 2000.

Reported AIDS deaths, now exceeding 20,000 each year, have been rising
because the people who had HIV a decade ago are now getting sick. Women
are also making up a greater proportion of AIDS cases, rising to 37
percent in 2006, Wiwat said.

Other worrisome trends in Burma's pandemic include the fact that HIV among
children is still rising even if overall HIV prevalence has peaked, Wiwat
added.

Likewise, he said that while there is now higher use of condoms, it
remains low for casual sex. He cited figures showing that an average of 54
percent of people use condoms during commercial sex, but only18 percent
use them in casual sex.

Overall, Wiwat said, Burma's pandemic is shifting from being highly
prevalent among the groups with high-risk behavior, such as drug users, to
those traditionally viewed as low-risk people, including women who get HIV
from their husbands.

____________________________________
OPINION / OTHER

August 22, Irrawaddy
Behind Burma's fuel price rise - Alfred Oehlers

The fuel price increase in Burma last week has been greeted by shock,
amazement, and despair. The question many are asking is, how can this be?

How can a country so rich in gas and oil be unable to provide its own
citizens with affordable supplies?  How can a government raise prices such
a huge extent, especially when it is selling gas for what must be an
incredible profit?

So far, various explanations have been put forward by analysts.  Some have
suggested the economic mismanagement of the regime is largely to blame,
while others have pointed to an emerging foreign exchange and budgetary
crisis as reasons behind the move.

Some others have warned the political machinations of the regime should
not be underestimated.  The price increases, in sparking off popular
protests, could serve as a pretext for the State Peace and Development
Council to launch another political crackdown, prolongation of National
Convention proceedings or even postponement of the upcoming visit by UN
envoy Ibrahim Gambari.

All these may perhaps be true.  But to fully understand the pressures
behind the increase in fuel prices, it is also important to consider some
deeper structural characteristics of the Burmese economy and oil and gas
sector.

To begin, one bold fact: Burma is essentially a diesel-powered economy. 
We see this in the buses, trains and trucks that rumble around the
country.  We also see this in the dilapidated power plants that sometimes
generate electricity.  Most of all, we see this in the ubiquitous portable
generators that exist in nearly every home, factory and shop that can
afford one.

For a long time now, diesel prices have been kept artificially low through
subsidies.  And as demand for diesel has continued to grow in tandem with
an expanding economy, the amount spent on these subsidies has similarly
expanded, posing an ever increasing strain on the regime’s finances.

In an attempt to increase the supply of diesel, the regime attempted to
encourage greater crude oil output from the domestic oil industry in
recent years.  This has not met with great success, as onshore wells are
declining in productivity (the “peak oil” phenomenon) and there are few,
if any, offshore wells.

In any case, sources suggest, even if higher volumes of crude could be
obtained domestically, another bottleneck would have developed around the
available refining capacity in Burma.  Burma’s ageing refineries simply
cannot refine crude volumes sufficient to meet demand.  These refineries,
in addition, are incapable of refining crude from other sources with
different sulfur content, thus ruling out imports of crude to augment
domestic supplies.

The only solution then, is to import diesel.  And as this is usually done
at spot market prices, it is an extremely costly solution.  But wait. 
Surely revenues obtained from gas sales should be enough to cover the
higher expenditure?

It is true that such gas sales provide some revenue to help in defraying
the cost of diesel imports.  But it is questionable if they are sufficient
to cover the escalating cost.

First, most of the gas contracts were negotiated some time ago and have
probably locked-in much lower prices than those prevailing today.  These
lower gas prices cannot compensate for the higher spot prices for diesel.

Second, revenues are not always obtained in such sales.  Sources indicate
that the deal with Petronas, for example, involves the SPDC bartering its
share of gas production for diesel from the Malaysian company on
pre-agreed terms, without any money being exchanged.

Third, it should also be remembered that though revenues may be obtained
from gas sales, expenditure on refined gas products are a drain on such
income and can diminish what is available for diesel imports.  It is a
great irony that while Burma sells unrefined natural gas to neighboring
countries, due to lack of capacity to purify such gas domestically, it
must import refined gas products at substantially higher prices.

What we have currently is a conjuncture of these structural
characteristics and circumstances that make it impossible to sustain
subsidies at the previous level.  Rising imports of diesel, gasoline and
gas products at escalating prices cannot be paid for from existing gas
revenues.  Nor can an already weak state budget—depleted by projects such
as a new capital—absorb such rising costs.  The only solution is to slash
the subsidies and raise fuel prices.

While this may help shed light on the price increases, some intriguing
questions remain.  one concerns the timing of the move.  These pressures
have been evident for some time, so why now?  Another concern is the
magnitude of the price increase.  Why such a large increase?

Again, one might speculate on any number of reasons for the timing and
size of the price increases.  But sources suggest there may be at least
one nefarious motive.

For some time, the regime has been considering a privatization of the fuel
distribution system in Burma.  Under the terms of this, retail outlets for
diesel, gasoline and gas products will be sold to a private company.  The
company would buy fuel products wholesale from the government then sell
them to the public for a profit through this retail network.  It was
rumored that one of the key contenders in this privatization was of course
the tycoon, Tayzar, and his Htoo Group of companies.

But there was a problem in this scheme.  The profit margin between the
wholesale prices paid to the SPDC and the retail price charged to the
public was too small.  Indeed, under the old subsidized prices, the big
money was being made in the black market for fuel and not in the retail
outlets.  So, to make it profitable for a company to take over the retail
system, it would be necessary to raise fuel prices.  This would also have
the additional benefit of killing off the black market and delivering a
monopoly to the company controlling the retail outlets and allowing it to
capture the big money.

How far is this true?  We may never know.  For the moment though, there
are crucial political developments flowing from the fuel price increases. 
Looking longer term, there are also critical questions around the
resilience of the energy sector in Burma.
Unless serious attention is paid to developing the sector in areas such as
an indigenous refining capacity, the pressures that have been described
above will continue to plague the country.  Sadly, under a current
leadership which seems obsessed with selling off natural resources without
further thought, this unfortunately will be the case.

Alfred Oehlers is a security analyst based in Hawaii.

____________________________________
PRESS RELEASE

August 21, National Coalition Government of the Union of Burma
NCGUB supports right to peaceful demonstration, urges junta to release
unlawfully detained activists

The Burmese generals have unlawfully arrested the leaders of the 88
Generation Students, including Min Ko Naing, as well as other leading
pro-democracy activists today.  The move is apparently aimed at thwarting
the peaceful demonstration called for by activists and the student leaders
who wanted the military regime to reduce fuel oil prices.

We, the National Coalition Government of the Union of Burma (NCGUB),
strongly condemn the Burmese generals for the unlawful arrest of these
student leaders -- many of whom have already been imprisoned over a decade
without any due process of law -- and urge the regime to immediately and
unconditionally release them.

We also fully support the democratic right of the people to express their
will through peaceful demonstration and hold the Burmese generals fully
responsible for the public discontent in the country originating from
their decision to increase fuel oil prices without taking into
consideration the suffering of the people who are already under enormous
pressure from exorbitant commodity prices.  Their decision has already
sparked another round of inflation and has plunged most people deeper into
poverty, particularly those in the poor quarters who are barely surviving
on one meal a day.

Hence, nationwide peaceful demonstration called for by the people is their
right and a struggle for their survival.

The Burmese generals should try to understand the true situation and the
general sentiment in the nation and resolve the problems for the people
instead of resorting to arbitrary arrests and exerting unlawful force to
settle all problems.

The NCGUB calls on governments, the United Nations, and international
community at large to closely monitor the Burmese generals and dissuade it
from deploying its thugs from the Union Solidarity and Development
Association to brutally quell peaceful demonstrators if the people take to
the streets to protest.

The NCGUB is constituted and endorsed by representatives elected in the
1990 elections in Burma

Contact:
77 South Washington Street, Suite 308, Rockville, MD 20850, U.S.A.
Tel: 301-424-4810
Fax: 301-424-4812
E-mail: ncgub at ncgub.net