BurmaNet News, September 13, 2007

[Editor]

September 13, 2007 Issue # 3291

INSIDE BURMA
Reuters: Myanmar protests "just the start" - top dissident
BBC Burmese Service: Burmese authorities step up searching for the
activists in hiding
DVB: Famous writers speak out against state-sanctioned violence
AP: Phones cut at Myanmar opposition HQ
Irrawaddy: Junta extends cut-off of phone service to journalists
Kaladan News: Prices of essential commodities double in northern Arakan
Irrawaddy: Military leader behind crackdown tries to placate monks
KNG: Burmese Army continues using civilians as porters
Mizzima News: Burmese people evacuate coastal area in fear of Tsunami
Irrawaddy: Rare species threatened by development of Burmese infrastructure
KNG: KIO delegates to NC welcomed home

ON THE BORDER
Mizzima News: One of an unidentified armed Burmese group shot dead by Thai
security

REGIONAL
Xinhua: China voices support for Myanmar's democracy process

OPINION / OTHER
Asia Times: Myanmar protests verge on mass movement - Larry Jagan
The Nation: Burma's 'constitutional' dictatorship - Supalak G Khundee

PRESS RELEASE
United Nations: United Nations Special Rapporteurs urge the Myanmar
authorities to immediately release peaceful protesters

____________________________________
INSIDE BURMA

September 13, Reuters
Myanmar protests "just the start" - top dissident - Ed Cropley

Nearly four weeks of protests in Myanmar are "just the start" of a mass
movement against the ruling junta and the grinding poverty endured by the
former Burma's 53 million people, a top activist said from hiding.

"There is no way this will stop," Htay Kywe told Reuters from a secret
location inside Myanmar, where he has been in hiding since evading an Aug.
21 crackdown on dissidents who launched a rare string of protests against
shock increases of fuel prices.

"Arresting and killing people will not free us from economic hardship,"
the 39-year-old said in digitally recorded answers to questions e-mailed
by Reuters and authenticated by a person known to be a very close friend.

Thirteen of Htay Kywe's colleagues in the "88 Generation Students Group"
that spearheaded a nationwide uprising against military rule in 1988 have
been arrested and accused of terrorism, charges that could see them jailed
for decades.

But Htay Kywe, who managed to elude midnight raids on homes across Yangon,
said the generals who have run the Southeast Asian nation for the last 45
years would never be able to cover up the reality of deepening poverty.

"As long as the public are experiencing a lack of development, economic
hardship, authoritarian rule and injustice, there will be, and will always
be, a situation where the public will not accept it and will fight back,"
he said.

More than 150 people have been detained in the current crackdown, one of
the harshest since troops were sent in to crush the 1988 uprising with the
loss of an estimated 3,000 lives.

Although memories of the bloodshed are still fresh in people's minds, Htay
Kywe said increasing economic hardship would fuel the underground social
movement.

As long as they are unable to solve the troubles the country is in today,
movements like this will never end," he said. "Like the rising tide and
waves, the military government will be hearing these voices loud and
clear."

Even as the protests have spread, they have remained focused firmly on
deteriorating living conditions in a country seen as one of Asia's
brightest prospects when it won independence from Britain in 1948 and now
one of the region's poorCountering junta charges he was being "sheltered"
by a Western embassy, Htay Kywe said he was hiding "among the public".

"We are hiding because we want to continue working hand-in-hand with the
public to show evidence of this military government's untruthful political
solutions," he said.

Analysts said the fact he and other activists such as Ma Nilar and Suu Suu
Nway had remained undetected for so long suggested the junta's internal
spy networks may not be as powerful or sophisticated as they used to be.

In particular, they pointed to the 2004 purge of Prime Minister Khin Nyunt
and the dismantling of his Military Intelligence-run network of informants
and secret police.

Despite the latest crackdown, the fuel price protests have spread to the
centre and northwest and have started to involve Buddhist monks, key
players in the 1988 uprising.

The army's firing of warning shots to disperse a crowd of protesting monks
in Pakokku last week triggered an angry response the next day from monks,
who seized 13 government officials and torched four of their vehicles.

____________________________________

September 13, BBC Burmese Service
Burmese authorities step up searching for the activists in hiding

U Myint Thein, a spokesperson of the National League for Democracy told
the BBC that the telephone line has been cut at the headquarters of the
NLD since yesterday.

He also said that several NLD members and pro-democracy activists' mobile
phone service has been cut since Monday in an attempt by the junta to curb
the flow of information.

Meanwhile Burmese government are trying to find the activists in hiding.

According to a monk, local police in Rangoon were told that they will be
rewarded 300,000 kyats if they could provide information of 88 generation
student leaders in hiding.

More than 150 activists have been detained as the military launched a
violent crackdown on a rare string of anti-government protests, which
erupted on August 19 in anger at a large hike in fuel prices.

____________________________________

September 13, Democratic Voice of Burma
Famous writers speak out against state-sanctioned violence

Several high-profile Burmese writers have urged the military to find a
responsible solution to the current commodity and fuel price crisis and to
stop crackdowns on peaceful protests.

Dangon Taryar, an 88-year-old writer who was involved in the student-led
fight for independence from the British, told DVB yesterday that if the
government was serious about moving towards democracy then it would have
to start accepting people’s right to protest.

“Peaceful protests are common in democratic countries. If you look at the
history of Burmese political movements, you’ll see that even monks have
played a part,” Dangon Taryar said.

“They were involved in the fight for independence from British rule and
they were also involved in the 1988 uprising. People are not going to be
very pleased if you start beating up monks,” Dangon Taryar said, referring
to the government’s recent crackdown on monks who have staged
demonstrations.

Moe Thu, a well-known writer and former political prisoner, said yesterday
that the government’s strategies for combating unrest were completely
unsustainable.

“We will never have peace until we start solving our problems with
peaceful dialogue,” Moe Thu said.

____________________________________

September 13, Associated Press
Phones cut at Myanmar opposition HQ

The telephone line has been cut at the headquarters of Myanmar's top
opposition party, the National League for Democracy, a party spokesman
said Thursday.

The action, taken Wednesday, presumably at the behest of the military
government, came as the junta has been facing the most sustained protests
in a decade against its rule.

"We are a legal political party but we cannot perform legal party
activities," said party spokesman Myint Thein.

Members of the party, headed by detained Nobel Peace Prize laureate Aung
San Suu Kyi, have been active in the recent demonstrations.

The protests, triggered by a junta-ordered sharp increase in fuel prices,
have continued since Aug. 19 despite the detention of more than 100
demonstrators and rough treatment of other participants.

The National League for Democracy is to hold its annual ceremony
commemorating its founding on Sept. 27, but the current crackdown raises
questions about whether it will be allowed to go ahead.

Several party members and pro-democracy activists still at large or in
hiding have reported that their cell phone service has been cut since
Monday in an attempt by the junta to curb the flow of information, Myint
Thein said.

Several of the dissidents had given interviews over the past few weeks to
opposition Myanmar media in exile, including the Democratic Voice of
Burma, a shortwave radio station based in Norway, and Mizzima News, an
online service based in India.

An official involved in telecommunications, speaking on condition of
anonymity because he is not authorized to release such information, said
more than 50 phones were affected by the security sweep.

Photos and videos of the recent demonstrations have been smuggled out to
the exile media, which have sent their reports and images back by radio,
satellite TV and the Internet.

Domestic media are tightly controlled by the junta and have little public
credibility, so many people get their news from overseas.

The establishment of the foreign-based radio stations and use of the
Internet have meant that information about the protests has flowed more
widely and rapidly than during past challenges to the government.

Recently, however, Internet cafe operators have been ordered by
authorities to report any customers who visit political Web sites.

On Tuesday, the junta arrested a man who staged a solo protest in Taunggok
in the western state of Rakhine, according to Mizzima News and other exile
media.

The man, Ko Soe Win, displayed a placard saying junta leader Senior Gen.
Than Shwe should be excommunicated as a Buddhist and Suu Kyi should be
released from house arrest, they said.

He was reportedly tried the same day and sentenced to four years in prison.

The junta is very sensitive to the possibility of the protests spreading
among Buddhist monks.

In northern Myanmar last week, young monks angry at being beaten for
protesting economic conditions temporarily took officials hostage, burned
four vehicles and smashed a shop and a house belonging to junta
supporters.

The government initially responded by tightening security around
monasteries in major cities. But this week, in an evident attempt to
improve its image, high-ranking officials have been making high-profile
donations to Buddhist monasteries, according to the state-controlled
press.

____________________________________

September 13, Irrawaddy
Junta extends cut-off of phone service to journalists - Saw Yan Naing

The military government has increased its clampdown on pro-democracy
activists by extending the cut off of phone service to journalists who
seek interviews and information.

Since protests began on August 19, information about the demonstrations,
frequently from the participants themselves, flowed to journalists inside
and outside the country via mobile phones and the Internet.

A correspondent in Rangoon who works for a foreign news agency told The
Irrawaddy on Thursday his mobile phone service was blocked.

“First they [the authorities] blocked my mobile phone line," he said,
requesting anonymity. "And now my e-mail and photos bounce back.”

The Burmese junta cut off service to dozen of pro-democracy activists'
mobile phones on Monday, including the National League of Democracy
spokesman, Myint Thin, and activists Su Su Nway, Phyu Phyu Thin and
Amyotheryei Win Naing.

The next step was blocking phone service to journalists who are actively
covering the pro-democracy groups and their political activities.

“It's like they [the junta] have covered our eyes and ears," said the
journalist. "It is not good for us and it's even worse for them. It hurts
their image as well.”

Sein Win, an editor of Mizzima, a Burmese exile media group with offices
in India and Thailand, said his reporters find it harder to get
information from inside Burma.

“I have noticed that there is more phone tapping,” said Sein Win. ongoing
phone conversations are sometimes mysteriously cut off and then it's
impossible to call the person back.

A reporter for the Oslo-based Democratic Voice of Burma said many of his
sources' phones are now blocked. Before he could arrange interviews on the
same day, but now it can take two or three days to do the same amount of
work, he said.

In related news, a blog writer in Mogok, Thar Phyu, who has written about
flooding as well as about local demonstrations against the hike in fuel
prices, was called in by local police and issued a warning on Monday.

____________________________________

September 13, Kaladan News
Prices of essential commodities double in northern Arakan

Buthidaung, Arakan State : The situation in northern Arakan is going from
bad to worse following the increase in fuel prices on August 15. The
prices of essential commodities have doubled, said a trader in Buthidaung
Town .

Fuel prices touched a new high with petrol prices going up by 66 per cent
to 2,500 Kyat from the previous 1,500 Kyat per gallon, while diesel has
gone up by 100 per cent to 3,000 Kyat from 1,500 Kyat per gallon and
compressed natural gas (CNG) by over 500 per cent to 273 Kyat from 52 Kyat
per kilogram.

The surprise fuel price hike in northern Arakan triggered an increase bus
fares which doubled overnight. The Maungdaw-Buthidaung bus fare is now
1,000-2,000 Kyats from the previous 500-700 Kyats while the Taung
Bazar-Buthidaung boat fare has gone up to 500 Kyat from the earlier 300
Kyat, he added.

The vehicle fare from Maungdaw-Aley Than Kyaw is fixed at Kyat 2,500 while
it was Kyat 1,500 earlier. The boat fare from Maungdaw-Donsay (Koe Tan
Kauk) village is now Kyat 1,500 from up from Kyat 800, according to
villagers of Maungdaw township.

In northern Arakan, in Buthidaung Township , a kilogram of rice is being
sold at Kyat 500 from the previous 300-350 Kyats while kerosene is for
5,800 Kyat from the previous 4,800 Kyat per gallon.  A Viss (1Viss=1.63
kg) of beef is being sold at 5,000-6,000 Kyat from the previous 4,000 Kyat
per Viss. Good quality fish is being sold for 3,000 Kyat from 2,000 Kyat
per kilogram while a dozen eggs are being sold for 1,200 Kyat from the
previous 600 Kyat. A big cock is being sold for 4,000 Kyat from the
previous 3,000 Kyat, a shopkeeper of Buthidaung said.

Similarly a kilogram of potato is being sold for Kyat 500. It was priced
at 450 Kyat earlier. A 40 kilogram sack of dried chili is being sold for
Kyat 80,000 from previous Kyat 70,000. A kilogram of mustard oil is being
sold Kyat 2,200 now. It was priced at Kyat 1,500 earlier. The daily wage
of a day laborer is kyat 2,000 while it was Kyat 1000-1,500 earlier.

In Maungdaw Township , a kilogram of rice is being sold at Kyat 700 from
the previous 400 Kyat. A kilogram of edible oil (Soybean) is being sold at
Kyat 2,000. It was being sold earlier for Kyat 1,200.

____________________________________

September 13, Irrawaddy
Military leader behind crackdown tries to placate monks - Shah Paung

A Burmese government minister believed to have been behind the crackdown
on recent demonstrations by a large group of monks has been making
high-profile donations to monasteries in what is seen as an attempt to
mollify them.

Minister for Industry-1 Aung Thaung donating offerings to an abbot on
Tuesday [Photo: NLM]

According to a front-page report in the state-run newspaper The New Light
of Myanmar on Wednesday, Minister for Industry-1 Aung Thaung attended a
donation ceremony for Maha Wisitayon monastery in Aungmyethazan Township,
which was held at Sasana Hitakayi monastery in Mandalay Division.

Aung Thaung, accompanied by senior military officers, donated robes and
other offerings to the monks, the newspaper said. They also donated
cooking oil for 102 monasteries of seven townships.

The highly-publicized ceremony followed a demand by an organization called
“the alliance of all Burmese Buddhist monks” for an apology from the
regime for the violent way in which recent demonstrations by monks were
broken up. The organization said that unless an apology was received by
September 17 monks would refuse alms offered by members of the military
regime by enacting a “patam nikkuijana kamma.” By refusing alms, the monks
would be withholding the granting of merit to the military officers and
officials.

A monk at Ma Soe Yein Monastery in Mandalay told The Irrawaddy on Thursday
that the military habitually tried to placate monks by offering gifts
whenever trouble was threatened, particularly in Mandalay.

The authorities provoked anger in monasteries throughout the country by
violently suppressing a peaceful demonstration by monks in Pakokku
Township, Magwe Division, on September 5.

Minister for Industry-1 Aung Thaung and another government member, Home
Minister Maung Oo, organized the crackdown on demonstrations not only in
Pakokku but also Rangoon and other cities, according to reliable sources
in Rangoon.

About 500 monks in Pakokku joined demonstrations against the recent sharp
price hikes, and were violently dispersed by troops, security officials
and pro-junta thugs. At least three monks were injured.

The following day, monks at Maha Visutarama monastery (known as Ah Le
Tiak) held  about 13 local officials hostage for more than six hours,
demanding the release of some  10 monks who had been arrested during the
Pakokku demonstrations.

Tension has since run high, and security has been tightened around
monasteries in Rangoon, Mandalay, Pegu, Pakokku and Sittwe, in western
Arakan State.

The BBC Burmese service carried a radio report on Thursday quoting a monk
in Sagaing Hill monastery as saying military commanders had asked leading
citizens—school  principals, doctors and community leaders—to approach the
monks and persuade them not to participate in the boycott threatened by
“the alliance of all Burmese Buddhist monks.”

Traditional organizations which regularly offer alms to the monks in
Mandalay had been told by authorities to suspend their offerings until
further notice, the BBC report said.

____________________________________

September 13, Kachin News Group
Burmese Army continues using civilians as porters

The Burmese Army continues to use forcibly not only prisoners but also
civilians as porters in contravention of the norms of the International
Labour Organisation (ILO), said an official of the Karenni National
Progressive Party (KNPP).

Fifty civilians from Chit Kehk and Pann Laung villages in Loi Kaw
Township, capital of Kayah State were forced to work as porters by the
Bawlakhe based Light Infantry Battalion N0 (429) since September 7 and 8,
Khoo Daniel, a KNPP official told KNG.

"The State Peace and Development Council (SPDC) proclaims that they [SPDC]
don't use prisoners as porters and has shunned forced labour but the fact
remains it continue to do so for its army. I want the international
community to take note," Khoo Daniel said.

Scores of civilians have been killed and thousands more conscripted for
forced labour. Prisoners are regularly used forcibly as porters. Worse
many of them were summarily executed during operations, according to the
New York based Human Rights Watch (HRW) World Report 2007.

On September 10, around 12:40 p.m. there was a firefight between the armed
wing of the KNPP and the Burma Army's Light Infantry Battalion N0 (429) at
a place between Salween River and east of Shar Daw Township. Two villagers
from Pan Lo village, where the clash ensued, were arrested by the Light
Infantry Battalion N0 (429).

"The clash was between KNPP and the Burmese Army but they took away
innocent villagers. They have not been released yet," said Khoo Daniel.

The KNPP is based along the Thailand-Burma border and was founded in 1955
for independence from Burma.

____________________________________

September 13, Mizzima News
Burmese people evacuate coastal area in fear of Tsunami - Nyein Chan &
Phanida

Chaos prevailed among residents in the coastal town of Arakan state, last
night as they had to hurriedly move to higher land, following a tsunami
alert by local authorities.

Residents in Maungdaw town in Burma's coastal state of Arakan fled to
higher lands and to the nearby hills as the local Municipal Corporation
rang the Tsunami alarm, warning residents of possible flash floods in low
lying areas in the aftermath of a quake in the Indian Ocean.

On Wednesday night there was a tsunami alert in at least four countries
along the Indian Ocean after a 8.4 magnitude earthquake struck the island
of Sumatra, Indonesia .

"At about 7 p.m. (local time), the Maungdaw Municipal Corporation
officials on loud speakers alerted people of a possible tsunami. As soon
as we heard the alarm, we ran up the hills," Thein Than, a resident of
Maungdaw ward No.4, told Mizzima.

According to a resident, similar chaos followed after the news of the
earthquake broke and tsunami alert was sounded.

"Last night, I even forgot to drum the pots (as a demonstration against
the junta), I was so concentrated on the tsunami news," said a Sittwe
resident Ko Myo Aye.

The tsunami alert in Maungdaw was sounded following the Bangladesh
government's announcement.

Similarly, in a once tsunami-stricken Southern Thailand, people rushed to
the hills and to higher land soon after the alert.

"Most people fled to places where the wave had not reached in the 2004
tsunami disaster.

People took to the hills and to higher ground, and some stayed overnight
in these places.

Some went back home this morning. And some went back after hiding their
families in a safe place," said Ko Htoo Chit, who resides in Phangnga
district in Southern Thailand.

Burmese and Thai labourers in Phangnga, and surrounding areas also
reportedly fled to nearby hills, high land and to Buddhist monasteries.

____________________________________

September 13, Irrawaddy
Rare species threatened by development of Burmese infrastructure - Violet Cho

Burma’s development of oil and gas fields and deforestation are critically
endangering 156 species of flora and fauna, according to the International
Union of the Conservation of Nature.

The threat was highlighted in the London-based organization’s latest
so-called “red list” of endangered species, issued on Wednesday.

Paul Sein Twa, director of Thailand-based the Karen Environment Social
Action Network, also told The Irrawaddy on Thursday: “The development of
infrastructure in Burma is the main factor that threatens the nature
species.”

Deforestation had a direct effect on the environment, Paul Sein Twa said.
The construction of dams and gas pipelines in various areas of Burma was
destroying the country’s biodiversity and ecosystem, he warned.

Paul Sein Twa said Burma’s “constant economic crisis also increases the
loss of natural resources.”

Twelve threatened species joined the 2007 “red list.” Among them is
Pallasa’s fish eagle, which faces extinction because of the growth of oil
and gas fields in Burma. Another rare species, the white-bellied heron,
had been added to the list because of threats to its existence by
deforestation and hunting in northern Burma, the organization said.

Five species of vultures, including the red-headed vulture and the
Egyptian vulture, have joined the list. Lack of food, due to habitat loss,
a reduction in grazing mammals and the increasing use of drugs to treat
livestock are blamed for the vultures' rapid decline.

____________________________________

September 13, Kachin News Group
KIO delegates to NC welcomed home

Five Kachin Independence Organization (KIO) delegates back from attending
the Burmese military junta's final round of the National Convention (NC)
were welcomed home at a special ceremony on Tuesday in Laiza controlled
areas on the Sino-Burma border in Kachin State, Northern Burma. Soon after
their return senior KIO officials went into a huddle to formulate their
next step to wards achieving autonomy for the state.

The (KIO) delegates led by Dr. Manam Tu Ja had resubmitted a special
19-point charter of demands at the final session of the Nyaung Napyin NC
held between July 18 and September 3 in Rangoon, former capital of Burma.
However the KIO proposal was studiously ignored by the junta, KIO sources
said.

The KIO has demanded autonomy for Kachin State including administrative,
legislative and judiciary powers as a state government in its 19-point
charter on behalf of Kachins. The charter includes the opinions of
religious, political, cultural leaders and civilians of Kachin State,
according to senior KIO officials.

"Just as we tried for a political dialogue during the civil war in the
1980s, we would like to resolve the problems on the basis of a dialogue.
If we cannot sit across the table with the junta representatives, we will
send mediators," a KIO central committee member told KNG today.

"The KIO may conduct a series of people's conference on the current
political problems between the KIO and the ruling junta.  The KIO will
then decide whether it will surrender its weapons or fight the junta
again. It will depend on the Kachin people," he added.

At the moment a series of meetings of KIO's senior officials are underway
in Laiza controlled areas after the KIO delegates returned from the
Rangoon NC on Tuesday, according to KIO sources.

The KIO started attending the National Convention in 2004 after the
junta's first convention in 1993 was aborted in 1996 when Daw Aung San Suu
Kyi's National League for Democracy (NLD) delegates walked out in protest.
However the KIO''s proposal has never been discussed at the convention,
KIO officials said.

The KIO is the main political front of Kachins and it signed a ceasefire
agreement with Burma's ruling junta in January 24, 1994.

The KIO was formed on February 5, 1961 for an independent Kachin State but
the stand was changed into autonomy for the state in 1976 after Maran
Brang Seng became the chairman of the organization.

____________________________________
ON THE BORDER

September 13, Mizzima News
One of an unidentified armed Burmese group shot dead by Thai security -
Than Htike Oo

A member of an unidentified armed group from Burma was found dead
following a fierce gun battle with the Thai border security force on
Tuesday, a Thai security official said. The incident occurred in Mea
Seriang district of Mae Hong Song province in northern Thailand.

"The Thai soldiers were patrolling the area when they encountered a group
of armed men. The ensuing exchange of fire took place on Thai territory,"
a Thai security official told Mizzima.

The brief encounter took place about 300 metres inside Thailand across the
Burmese border.

In connection with the shoot out, Rimond Htoo from the Karenni National
Progressive Party told Mizzima, "As the incident took place on the border,
I assume the armed group must have encroached into Thailand territory and
must have run into Thai security forces. The dead man did not have any
uniform on making identification difficult."

According to Rimond Htoo, who is based along the Thai-Burma border, the
Karenni Nationalities People's Liberation Front, an armed ethnic Karenni
group which has signed a ceasefire agreement with the Burmese military
junta, is based on the Burma side opposite where the incident took place.

The armed group has still not been identified.

____________________________________
REGIONAL

September 13, Xinhua General News Service
China voices support for Myanmar's democracy process

China whole-heartedly hopes that Myanmar will push forward a democracy
process that is appropriate for the country, Chinese State Councilor Tang
Jiaxuan said on Thursday.

Tang said China, as a friendly neighbor of Myanmar, sincerely hoped
Myanmar would restore internal stability as soon as possible, properly
handle issues and actively promote national reconciliation.

Tang made the remarks as he met with the special envoy of Myanmar's head
of state, Than Shwe, in Zhongnanhai, the headquarters of the Chinese
government.

During his meeting with U Nyan Win, Myanmar Minister of Foreign Affairs,
Tang said the democracy process was in the fundamental interests of the
people of Myanmar and conducive to regional peace, stability and
development.

U Nyan Win briefed Tang on the latest situation in his country. His
government was concentrated on maintaining internal stability, reinforcing
national solidarity and promoting economic development. Myanmar will
continue to push forward the democracy process according to established
principles.

Myanmar set out on Monday the principles of drafting a new constitution,
under which the country will elect a parliament consisting of multiple
political parties and introduce a market economy.

____________________________________
OPINION / OTHER

September 13, Asia Times
Myanmar protests verge on mass movement - Larry Jagan

Popular protests have spread across Myanmar, putting the authoritarian
military government's hold on power to a crucial and potentially volatile
test. The demonstrations that started against the ruling junta's
fuel-price policy now threaten to become a full-blown mass political
movement due to the military's heavy-handed handling of protesters.

Many political activists are already starting to draw comparisons between
recent events and the pro-democracy demonstrations in 1988 that forced
longtime military leader General Ne Win to resign. Mass protests involving
students, civil servants, workers and Buddhist monks then brought the
country to a standstill for months until armed soldiers brutally crushed
the movement and reasserted the military's hold on power through a coup.

For the first time since those tragic and momentous events, the military
government faces concerted and growing public protests, which political
analysts believe could easily escalate to a popular demand for the end of
military rule. The State Peace and Development Council's (SPDC's) drive to
introduce neo-liberal-inspired economic reforms, including last month's
sudden and unexpected withdrawal of fuel subsidies, has apparently
backfired badly.

Public protests are rare in Myanmar, where the regime maintains strict
social controls. Military leaders apparently did not foresee or plan for
the protests that have attended their shock-therapy policies. Whether the
public anger snowballs into a full-blown mass movement, as happened in
1988, depends largely on how the historically heavy-handed regime responds
in the weeks ahead.

The violent tactics employed by the regime to quell the protests so far,
however, do not augur well for future stability. Small, peaceful protest
marches have continued for weeks in Yangon, Myanmar's main commercial city
and until recently the national capital.

They have since spread to several other parts of the country, including
crucially the central town of Pakokku, near Mandalay, where an estimated
100 Buddhist monks recently spearheaded the unrest, including taking
government officials hostage and burning their cars. The military
eventually fired warning shots, and one monk was badly hurt in the melee.

The junta has long fretted about politicized monks - who command deep
respect among the population and many of whom are known to sympathize with
opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi, who is under house arrest. Since the
early 1990s, the military have effectively controlled the Buddhist
governing religious bodies by retiring, replacing and relocating
known-dissident abbots.

But the recent clergy-inspired violence and the military's violent
response may yet prove to be a watershed moment. The monks have demanded
an apology from the government for its use of force, but to date junta
leaders have failed to reply. In the meantime, in an unprecedented move,
police and security forces have been deployed outside the monasteries in
the key Buddhist cities of Mandalay, Pakkoku and Yangon to prevent the
monks from staging further protests.

Nonetheless, the monks have expressed their particular concerns about the
government's reported use of armed civilian vigilante groups to counter
and contain protesters. Since the protests erupted last month, the
authorities have arrested hundreds of people. The junta has often used
pro-government thugs to disperse the crowds violently and deter
journalists from recording events.

The vigilantes are known to be part of a pro-government community group,
the Union Solidarity and Development Association (USDA), which the regime
often deploys to drum up popular support for the junta and is expected to
morph into a full-fledged political party with the SPDC's promised
transition to democracy. USDA vigilantes launched an assassination attack
on Suu Kyi in May 2003, and many of her National League for Democracy
supporters were killed in the violent exchange.

Now the USDA's special security force, known as the Swan Arrshin, is at
the forefront of countering the current protests. "The members of this
group have been especially trained in crowd control and the violent
suppression of protests," a Western diplomat in Yangon told Asia Times
Online. "We have had reports of its foundation to act as a security and
intelligence wing since the beginning of the year."

Many former criminals recently released from prison have reportedly been
recruited as vigilantes, according to diplomatic sources in Yangon. At
least 600 convicted criminals were released from Yangon's notorious Insein
Prison in recent months and recruited by the USDA into the Swan Arrshin,
the sources say. The pro-democracy opposition in Yangon puts the figure at
closer to 2,000 members.

"It is the use of these thugs which has particularly upset the Buddhist
clergy. Pitting Buddhist civilians against other Buddhist civilians
disturbs social harmony," said a senior Buddhist monk in the central city
of Mandalay, who spoke by mobile telephone. "The government should not
condone this practice, let alone promote it."

Popular protest leaders
The junta has a potentially bigger problem in dealing with the 88
Generation Student group, which was involved in organizing the original
protests. The dissident group's key leaders, including internationally
renowned poet Ming Ko Naing and the charismatic Ko Ko Gyi, were released
from prison two years ago after spending nearly 14 years behind bars and
are known to command immense respect among the local population.

The authorities detained nearly 20 of the group's members immediately
after the first protest and they are being interrogated in Insein Prison.
There have been unconfirmed reports that one of

the group's leaders, Kyaw Min Yu, popularly known by his English nickname
Jimmy, has died in prison as a result of the injuries he sustained while
being detained by armed vigilantes.

The International Committee of the Red Cross has made discreet inquiries
about the prisoners, though no information is available about their
treatment or condition. The regime is acutely aware of the public sympathy
the group's leaders command and as an early concession released one
arrested member who had suffered a broken leg upon being arrested. At the
same time, the government has warned that the other detained group members
face 20-year jail sentences if convicted and sentenced.

Such harsh treatment could politicize and add new fuel to the fire of the
protests, some analysts predict. It's still unclear whether the protests
are part of a larger political strategy launched by the dissident group.
"They knew they would be detained again and could face another stiff term
in prison," said one of the group's supporters. "So they had contingency
plans in place for that."

The authorities have since placed all of the arrested leaders' families
under strict surveillance and are searching for a key member of the group,
Htay Kywe, who is in hiding. On the run, he has become the public voice of
the movement through interviews given to the Oslo-based Democratic Voice
of Burma and e-mail communications with the international media.

In an e-mail sent over the weekend to foreign journalists, including Asia
Times Online, he disputed the government's accusations that the 88 Student
Group is using violence to try to overthrow the government, and retorted
that it is the junta that is using violence as a pretext to detain the
group's leaders.

"We believe that no Myanmar people ... will accept these acts of political
violence by the military government," said Htay Kywe in the e-mail. "We,
the 88 Generation Students, together with people including monks,
students, workers and farmers, will continue our efforts to remove the
military dictatorship by firmly resisting any kind of arrest and torture."

Economic squeeze
Runaway inflation, meanwhile, is causing economic chaos. An unofficial
consumer price index maintained by a leading Yangon-based economic journal
based on a basket of essential commodities showed a 35% spike in prices as
a result of the fuel-price increase.

According to recent United Nations-conducted surveys, more than 90% of
Myanmar's population spent 60-70% of their household income on food.
"These price increases are likely to be the result of speculation and
anticipation, rather than a real increase in costs," the top UN official
in Yangon, Charles Petrie, told Asia Times Online.

A UN economist based in Yangon, requesting anonymity, said in a recent
interview: "I estimate that now the vast majority of Burmese people are
spending over 80% of their monthly salaries on food."

As inflation gallops, the potential for widespread unrest, not yet at the
tipping point, is growing. Already more people are living without
permanent shelter on Yangon's streets, many of them workers who have day
jobs but cannot afford to travel from home and back, a Japanese
businessman and regular visitor to Yangon recently observed.

Laborers who live in poor areas on the outskirts of Yangon - after the
government razed their slums and relocated them there in 1988 in a policy
designed to depopulate the national capital - are now walking to work
rather than paying higher transportation costs. "Many workers are taking
more than an hour and a half to walk to work," said an economist, a
Myanmar national based in Yangon. "Some even spend up to three hours
walking to their factories."

UN officials believe the policy will in time impact adversely on public
health conditions - which because of low government spending were already
abysmal. "Malnutrition will increase as a result" of the policy, said a UN
official. "While people will not starve, there will be a slow increase in
deaths from diseases which should not be terminal - it will especially
affect children and the elderly."

The majority of people are not yet so deprived that they are willing to
risk joining the protests. But tensions are bubbling away under the
surface, which could be accentuated in the weeks ahead, particularly if
rice prices were to surge. Heavy rains and flooding in Myanmar's rice bowl
this year means yields and supply could be substantially reduced compared
with recent years - providing yet another source of inflationary pressure.

"The current protests are still economic," said Khin Ohmar, a leading
activist based in Thailand with close links to protest organizers. She
said she believes it's only a matter of time before the protests become
political. "Everyone recognizes that the root cause of the inflation is
the junta's economic mismanagement. By concentrating on what really
concerns people in their daily lives, people will be encouraged to
participate [in the rallies], and that will eventually generate a momentum
for real change - as happened in 1988."

The dramatic events of August 1988, which likewise were spurred by
economic mismanagement, took months to evolve. In late 1987, the military
demonetized certain denominations of the local currency, the kyat, which
wiped out many people's savings overnight. The initial peaceful protest
marches were suspended after the regime violently cracked down on them.
Three months later, student groups initiated a fresh series of protests
which by August of that year had grown into a mass movement.

Nearly 20 years later, the military's economic mismanagement and political
heavy-handedness are strikingly similar.

Larry Jagan previously covered Myanmar politics for the British
Broadcasting Corp. He is currently a freelance journalist based in
Bangkok.

____________________________________

September 13, The Nation
Burma's 'constitutional' dictatorship - Supalak G Khundee

Burma looks set to create a new form of authoritarian state as the
National Convention has completed a marathon session, drafting guidelines
for its next constitution, which will maintain the military's central role
in government with little or no checks and balances.

The junta-sponsored National Convention, which started in 1993, ended its
final session in early September with 15 chapters of basic principles set
out for the constitution, which is to be drafted by a committee that has
yet to be named. The timeline for the new constitution for the
military-ruled country remains unknown. Burma has now completed only the
first of the seven steps on its "road map to democracy".

Burma has previously had two constitutions: the democratic one of 1947
during the U Nu regime and the authoritarian one of 1974 during the reign
of dictator Ne Win. The current junta, the State Peace and Development
Council, wants its own version to fit new circumstances.

The junta, previously known as the State Law and Order Restoration
Council, called the 1990 election but refused to open the People's
Assembly and hand over power to those who had won the election. Instead,
the junta set up the National Convention three years later to lay down
principles for the drafting of a constitution. Very few of those elected
in 1990 participated in the convention.

Basically, the 14 years of constitution drafting had only two objectives:
barring major opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi from leading the country,
and constitutionalising the military's political power.

The basic principles for the constitution make it clear that Aung San Suu
Kyi, whose National League for Democracy won a landslide victory in the
1990 elections, would have no chance to stand as a candidate for the
leadership of the country. Among the qualifications it sets for the
position of state president is a clause stating that "either of his/her
parents, spouse, any legitimate child or the spouse of any of legitimate
children shall not be a loyal subject to any foreign government or a
person under the influence of a foreign government or citizen of an alien
country".

Aung San Suu Kyi was married to Briton Michael Aris, who died in 1999.
With his death, Suu Kyi could claim that she has no spouse, but her
children could still be deemed loyal subjects of a foreign government.
Even if she could prove that they are not the subjects of any foreign
government, she might still be disqualified for lacking a military
background, as the constitution stipulates that the candidate for state
president should have a vision for military matters, as well as national,
administrative and economic affairs.

It is too naive to imagine that the military, which has run the country
since the 1962 coup to overthrow the democratic U Nu government, would
work itself out of politics. On the contrary, the new Burmese constitution
would provide legal grounds for the generals to continue holding on to
political power.

The guidelines for the new constitution indicate that the military will be
entrenched in every state institution including the union presidency, the
union government, the union assembly as well as regional and state
assemblies.

The Burmese military, known locally as Tatmadaw is essentially established
as an ultra-constitutional organisation. The constitutional guidelines
state that the Tatmadaw is the sole existing army and that it must be
strong and modern. The commander-in-chief of the army is constitutionally
the most powerful person in the country. The president would appoint the
commander-in-chief with approval of the National Defence Ministry and the
Security Council, but the process for his removal was not mentioned in the
National Convention's adopted guidelines. The commander-in-chief has
complete authority over the armed forces. His decision is final in matters
of military justice. He is not responsible to any assembly, but he has the
authority to pick some members of the assemblies within the military's
quota.

Burma's parliament, which is called Pyidaungsu Hluttaw (Union Assembly),
comprises two assemblies: the People's Assembly, which is composed of
representatives elected on the basis of population, and the National
Assembly, composed of representatives from different states and regions.
Nonetheless, the commander-in-chief has the authority to pick up to
one-fourth of the total number of members in each assembly. In other
words, the military has a quota of 110 out of 440 seats in the People's
Assembly and 56 out of 224 seats in the National Assembly.

Like the Thai military, the Burmese military also believes in selection
rather than election, as Burma's constitutional guidelines state that the
state president of the union (the head of state) shall be "elected" by the
presidential election body, rather than directly by the population. The
presidential election body was formed by members of the parliament,
including those MPs who were picked by the commander-in-chief of the army.
In short, the selection of the top leader of the country cannot be done
without military approval.

Burma's state president is very powerful. The president is authorised to
pick ministers to sit in cabinet, summon an emergency or special session
of the Union Assembly and appoint and dismiss heads of public-service
agencies. The president, in principle, needs to report to the Union
Assembly but he/she "shall not be responsible for answering to any
assemblies or to any courts for the exercise or performance of the duties
and functions vested in him by the constitution or any of the existing
laws or for any of his action in the exercise and performance of these
powers and functions".

The Burmese military got what the Thai military only dreamed of when they
sponsored the 2007 constitution-drafting process. The Tatmadaw is able to
exercise full power during a state of emergency. The president is
obligated to announce a state of emergency and later transfer executive,
legislative and judicial power to the commander-in-chief, enabling the
latter to take necessary measures to restore the country to normalcy. All
assemblies would be terminated during the emergency.

In practice, the president should refrain from declaring a state of
emergency, as it could dissolve his authority unless he is also acting as
the commander-in-chief of the Defence Force. The constitutional guidelines
do not bar the commander-in-chief from holding the presidency. In that
case, a military leader, in his capacity as the president and the
commander-in-chief, could declare an extended state of emergency and
impose dictatorship for as long as he pleases.

____________________________________
PRESS RELEASE

September 13, United Nations
United Nations Special Rapporteurs urge the Myanmar authorities to
immediately release peaceful protesters

Geneva: The Special Rapporteur on the situation of human rights in
Myanmar, Paulo Sérgio Pinheiro, the Special Rapporteur on the promotion
and protection of the right to freedom of opinion and expression, Ambeyi
Ligabo, and the Special Rapporteur on the independence of judges and
lawyers, Leandro Despouy, call on the authorities of Myanmar to
immediately release the peaceful protestors who have been detained
following demonstrations against the unprecedented increase in the prices
of fuel.

The Special Rapporteurs recall that the brutal arrests of more than 150
people since the beginning of the protests, on 19 August 2007, are in
violation of international recognized human rights standards and should
not be tolerated by the international community. It is shocking that
peaceful demonstrators have received life sentences in trials without any
basic guarantee of the due process of law and that local journalists were
prevented from reporting on these measures.

The Special Rapporteurs are aware of the important and courageous role
played by women, student leaders and monks in these peaceful protests. The
Myanmar authorities should be proud of its vibrant civil society and
engage without hesitations in a constructive and transparent dialogue with
all parties so as to lay down a road map for a healthy and empowered
democratic society, for the benefit of the country and the region at
large. There will be no progress in Myanmar's political transition unless
ordinary people have space to express their views and discontent,
peacefully and in public.

The Special Rapporteurs note that Myanmar and the international community
have a responsibility to safeguard the universal right to freedom of
expression and association and urge States in the region to assist the
government of Myanmar in upholding the principles of democracy and rule of
law. They recall that when the situation in Myanmar was discussed at the
United Nations Security Council earlier this year, several members urged
parallel action at the United Nations Human Rights Council.

The Special Rapporteurs consequently urge members of the Human Rights
Council to press the authorities of Myanmar for the immediate and
unconditional release of the detainees and political prisoners and a
relaxation of the current situation.

http://www.unhchr.ch/huricane/huricane.nsf/view01/F71ADE7E0F22DAD2C1257355004E91B8?opendocument