BurmaNet News, September 18, 2007

[Editor]

September 18, 2007 Issue # 3294

INSIDE BURMA
Irrawaddy: Monks march as boycott begins—authorities use tear gas
Mizzima News: “Overturning of rice bowls" headlines largest protests to
date, as monks lead the way
AP: Monks march in Myanmar amid tight security at temples
Reuters: Tear gas used against Myanmar protest, monks hit
KNG: Monks in Myitkyina under virtual house arrest in monasteries
DVB: Chauk monk attacked after protest
Irrawaddy: Prominent Burmese woman activist arrested in Rangoon

BUSINESS / TRADE
Narinjara News: Businessmen forced to buy fuel for patrol vehicles

DRUGS
Reuters: U.S. says Myanmar, Venezuela fall short in drugs fight - Paul Eckert

REGIONAL
Khonumthung News: UNHCR, India suspends registration of new comers from Burma
Mizzima News: India's Petroleum Minister to visit Burma

INTERNATIONAL
BreakingNews.ie: Burma refugees move into resettlement centre

OPINION / OTHER
Mizzima News: Courage of the sons of Buddha will finally tip the scale -
May Ng
Irrawaddy: The longest coup: Did China plan to invade Burma in 1988? -
Aung Zaw
Mizzima News: Burma: on the road to political chaos as junta fears growing
public protests is challenging their control - Larry Jagan

____________________________________
INSIDE BURMA

September 18, Irrawaddy
Monks march as boycott begins—authorities use tear gas - Kyaw Zwa Moe

Monks in Rangoon and other cities across Burma began their threatened
boycott of members of the ruling military regime and their families on
Tuesday, and also participated in peaceful marches. A demonstration by
monks and civilians in Sittwe, Arakan State, was broken up by the
authorities, using tear gas.

Hundreds of monks in rows of two and three peacefully marched through
downtown Rangoon and Pegu. They also marched in Pakokku and other towns in
Magwe Division. The monks walked in procession to local temples, chanting
metta sutta and paritta sutta (Buddhist calls for kindness and protection
against evil and harm).

Security forces fired tear gas to break up a demonstration by several
hundred monks and civilian protesters in Sittwe, according to a local
eyewitness. He told The Irrawaddy hundreds of local people had joined in
the demonstration by local monks, including some Muslim residents of the
town.

The news agency Reuters also said three or four monks were arrested in
Sittwe as the authorities used tear gas to break up the demonstration.
Protesters were hit, an eyewitness told Reuters.

Tuesday’s demonstrations were the first of this size by Burma’s monks
since the 1988 nationwide pro-democracy uprising, in which thousands of
monks participated.

Their alms boycott, called “patam nikkujjana kamma,” is the first time in
18 years that monks have withheld their recognition of members of the
ruling military regime and their families. Most of Burma’s community of an
estimated 400,000 monks are expected to follow, and there were reports
late Tuesday that the boycott was growing.

Their move is seen as a significant confrontation between the Sangha (sons
of Buddha) and the state and a big challenge for the military authorities.
The vast majority of Burmese citizens are Buddhist, including most of the
country’s military leaders.

The boycott went into effect on Tuesday as early as 3:00 a.m., in the
towns of Gyobinguak in Pegu Division, Aunglan and Pakokku in Magawe
Division, and in towns of Rangoon and Mandalay divisions.

Thousands of people applauded the protesting monks as they marched.

“I have never seen such a huge crowd in my life,” an eyewitness in Pegu
Division told The Irrawaddy. He thought there were as many as 100,000
people present. About 1,000 monks participated in the march in Pegu.

“I have mixed feelings of happiness and sadness to see the monks turn out
for the welfare of the people,” the eyewitness said. “At the same time, I
am so worried that those monks might be violently suppressed.”

Monks who refused alms from the military authorities in October 1990 faced
a heavy crackdown from the authorities. In Mandalay, where many
monasteries are located, more than 130 monasteries were raided and monks
were disrobed and given lengthy terms of imprisonment. As many as 300
monks were forced to disrobe and arrested across the country.

Apart from Sittwe, there were no reports of official action against the
protesters. In Zigon, Pegu Division, a local resident said he saw a board
reading: “Than Shwe, Maung Aye and Shwe Mann, who are against Buddhism, go
to hell.” Than Shwe, Maung Aye and Shwe Mann are the junta’s top leaders.

Witnesses said the marching monks were disciplined and didn’t allow
supporters and bystanders to join them. Rumors are circulating that bogus
monks are being infiltrated to stir up trouble and bring about a
legitimate crackdown by the authorities.

In demonstrations in August and early September, the military regime
organized mobs to violently disperse the protesters.

Observers expect that as the boycott grows in coming days the military
authorities will try to persuade senior monks to control their monks.
High-ranking military officers and ministers have been making merit
recently in unusual displays of Buddhist fealty.

One senior monk in Koesaung monastery in Myingyan, Magwe Division,
commented on the demonstrations: “That’s what we monks should be doing.”

A member of the Alliance of All Burmese Buddhist Monks said in an
interview: “This is a fight between dhamma and ah-dhamma (between justice
and injustice).”

Shah Paung also contributed to this story.

____________________________________

September 18, Mizzima News
“Overturning of rice bowls" headlines largest protests to date, as monks
lead the way

A sangha-led campaign of protest over the state of the Burmese economy and
the treatment of civilian and monk demonstrators at the hands of
junta-backed security forces has entered its second day, the single
biggest day of demonstrations the 2007 protests have witnessed, with
confirmed demonstrations occurring in Rangoon, Chauk, Kyaukpadaung,
Aunglan, Pakokku, Pegu and Sittwe.

An organization referring to itself as The Alliance of All Burmese Monks
had issued statements that as of yesterday monks were to desist in
accepting alms from persons associated with the government. And today the
group called on monks throughout the country to march in protest of
government economic policies and a refusal to apologize for the heavy
handed treatment of monk protestors in Pakokku on September 5th.

In Rangoon, a procession of some 400 monks descended on Shwedagon Pagoda,
drawing a crowd of onlookers numbering over one thousand and instilling
fear into authorities, prompting the closure of all entrances to the
Pagoda. Also in Rangoon, a gathering of an estimated 1,500 persons,
including 900 monks, was said to be marching to Theinbyu Street.

The site of the brutal response to demonstrating monks in the first week
of the month, Pakokku, was again the scene for monk protests on Tuesday.
Some 800 monks took to the streets after reciting scripture on the
importance of loving kindness. A reported 2,000 civilians looked on as the
monks made there way through the streets.

A significant protest also occurred in Pegu, located 50 miles northeast of
Rangoon, where an estimated 700 monks marched peacefully this afternoon,
supported along their route by thousands of citizens.

In Kyaukpadaung and Aunglan, approximately 100 monks led peaceful protest
marches in the early morning hours. During the course of their protests
the monks were reported to recite Sutras, scriptures of the Buddha's
teachings. Kyaukpadaung is in Mandalay Division, while Aunglan is in Magwe
Division.

"People are surprised to see this sort of thing and they are excited,"
commented one observer of the protest scenes in Kyaukpadaung.

Also in Magwe Division, in the town of Chauk, 200 monks led a procession
through the streets of the city. There was a solitary report of violence
resulting from the monk-led campaigns, though reports prevailed of
security personnel and vehicles in the vicinities of protests and
following the monks on the course of their marches.

"There was no harassment today, but a suspicious Dyna light truck was
seen
along with ward PDC members. They stayed on the opposite side of the
road from our march. When we walked on the left side, they took to the
right side with a lot of men and 5 motorcycles," said a monk who
participated in the demonstration in Aunglan.

While in Pakokku a monk told Mizzima, "There were a lot of security
personnel along these roads. We saw the familiar faces that were around
our monasteries over the last few days. They can be easily distinguished
from the others. They hang the sling bags on their shoulders. Yes, they
are Swan Arrshin and USDA members."

The incidence of violence occurred in Sittwe, where a crowd of 2,000 monks
and civilians staged a protest. One monk is said to have been injured when
hit by a member of the security forces, to which members of the sangha
responded by hurling stones.

The strength of the protest forced local administrative officers to seek
shelter in their offices.

"The police initially tried to block the protesting monks but later they
had to give in. Then, when monks went ahead with their marching, township
administrative officials and police ran into their offices," a local
resident told Mizzima.

"We want reduction of commodities prices. We want a roll-back of the fuel
price hike. Release the arrested monks." were said, by eyewitnesses in
Sittwe, to be demands written on placards carried by the monks during the
demonstration.

A report from Rangoon did state that the junta is actively recruiting
additional civilian security personnel from the ranks of the Union
Solidarity and Development Association, Swan Arrshin and local population,
at a rate of 2,000 kyat per diem, and positioning them at key points
throughout the city. Army troops are also reported to be on standby to
assist in the handling of any demonstration in the former capital if the
government's strategy of utilizing junta-backed civilian security forces
is deemed to have failed.

"In the inner security ring, there are only Swan Arrshin, USDA, police and
MI agents. The soldiers will join and intervene if they are needed by the
inner ring," one Rangoon observer told Mizzima.

The boycott of alms is characterized by the overturning of the alms bowl
carried by each monk on their procession through the streets. It is a
highly significant act of protest and defiance in Burma, where nearly 90
percent of the population is Buddhist. Refusal to accept alms is of
symbolic importance as it severs the connection and symbiotic relationship
expected between the sangha and laity. Burmese generals are often pictured
and publicized donating large sums of money and gifts to monasteries and
pagodas throughout the country in an attempt to embellish their
credentials as legitimate leaders, accepted by the religious order.

The protest strategy of "Overturning the Bowl" has been staged by Burmese
monks on multiple occasions in the past, including during protests against
the regime in both 1988 and 2003.

Meanwhile, in a show of solidarity with protestors inside Burma, activists
staged demonstrations in front of Chinese diplomatic missions in twenty
countries.

Today marks the nineteenth anniversary of the military coup that brought
the State Law and Order Restoration Council (SLORC) to power, as the
military regime refashioned itself at the time.

The international demonstrations are aimed at focusing attention on
China's cozy relationship with the Burmese generals. China is considered
one of, if not the, chief supporter of the regime; including economically,
politically and militarily.

____________________________________

September 18, Associated Press
Monks march in Myanmar amid tight security at temples

More than a thousand Buddhist monks marched peacefully in two Myanmar
cities Tuesday, as part of a rare wave of anti-government protests that
have rocked the country over the past month, witnesses said.

More than 400 monks, chanting prayers and walking in rows of two and
three, marched in the country's biggest city Yangon, said witnesses, who
refused to be named for fear of reprisals. They were turned away from
entering the famous Shwedagon pagoda by plainclothes officers and
continued their march into the heart of the commercial district, witnesses
said.

Hundreds of onlookers watching the protest paid respects to the passing
monks, by raising their hands and putting them together.

In the city of Bago about 80 kilometers (50 miles) away, about 1,000 monks
peacefully marched to the Shwemawdaw pagoda, residents said.

No one was arrested in either march.

The monks had given authorities a Monday deadline to apologize for beating
hundreds of them two weeks ago as they marched peacefully in Pakokku, a
center of Buddhist learning, to protest rising fuel and consumer prices.
The apology never came.

As a result, monks threatened to launch nationwide marches Tuesday, to cut
off contact with the military and their families, and to refuse alms from
them a humiliating gesture that would embarrass the junta.

The anti-government protests began Aug. 19 after the government raised
fuel prices by as much as 500 percent, putting the squeeze on already
impoverished citizens. The protests have continued despite the detention
of more than 100 demonstrators and the rough treatment of others.

Monks have been at the forefront of political protests in Myanmar since
British colonial times. Because they are so revered by the public,
repressing them is politically risky. The junta is wary that
demonstrations could gain momentum if monks keep protesting.

Tuesday's march also comes on the 19th anniversary of the coup in Myanmar,
in which the current junta took over after crushing a failed pro-democracy
rebellion that sought an end to military rule, imposed since 1962.

The junta held general elections in 1990, but refused to honor the results
when pro-democracy leader Aung San Suu Kyi's National League for Democracy
party won. Suu Kyi has been detained under house arrest for more than 11
years.

Rights activists Tuesday also were scheduled to hold protests over
Myanmar, also known as Burma, at Chinese embassies and consulates in at
least 14 cities worldwide, in effort to bring attention to China's support
of the junta.

Aung Din, policy director of US Campaign for Burma, said the protests were
being held to expose the role that China plays in blocking resolutions
critical of Myanmar at the U.N. Security Council.

China, like other Asian countries, has invested heavily in Burmese oil and
gas projects as part of its global effort to feed its huge energy demands.

"China's unilateral foreign policy on Burma has completely paralyzed the
United Nations Security Council, and as a result the council has been
unable to act, just as it acted far too late in Rwanda and Darfur," Aung
Din said.

In New Zealand's biggest city, Auckland, some 35 members of the Burmese
community marched to the Chinese Consulate and protested outside for two
hours Tuesday, said spokesman Naing Ko Ko.

"We called for democracy and human rights in Burma, and said that China
provides an economic lifeline to the military regime" in Burma, he told
The Associated Press.

Before the Yangon march started, witnesses said plainclothes police and
junta supporters could be seen guarding entrances to key temples in
Myanmar's biggest city, Yangon. At the Shwedagon pagoda, some visitors
were being turned away and those who entered had their bags searched,
witnesses said.

The first confirmed demonstration by monks in the latest round of protests
took place Aug. 28 in Sittwe, the capital of Rakhine State in western
Myanmar. It got less attention than a second one on Sep. 6 in the northern
town of Pakokku, which was cut short when troops fired warning shots and
junta supporters manhandled some marchers.

In response, young monks angry at their mistreatment briefly took
officials hostage, torched their vehicles and later smashed a shop and a
house belonging to junta supporters.

____________________________________

September 18, Reuters
Tear gas used against Myanmar protest, monks hit - Aung Hla Tun

Authorities in military-ruled Myanmar fired tear gas on Tuesday to break
up a protest of around 1,000 Buddhist monks and civilian demonstrators in
the northwestern city of Sittwe, a witness said.

Three or four monks were arrested as the crowd scattered and were hit and
slapped, the witness told Reuters.

The march, one of several in response to a call for a nationwide religious
boycott of the former Burma's ruling military, started with 500 Buddhist
monks but grew quickly as ordinary men and women -- some of them Muslims
-- joined in.

There were no further details immediately available.

In Yangon, authorities closed the famed Shwedagon Pagoda, the Southeast
Asian nation's holiest shrine, minutes before hundreds of monks arrived
for the launch of a campaign to refuse to accept alms from anyone
connected to the regime.

"We could not hold the formal ceremony to impose the religious boycott
because we could not enter the Shwedagon compound," a 25-year-old monk
told Reuters.

They then marched peacefully to the city centre, chanting prayers and holy
scriptures but no political slogans.

Plainclothes police and members of the feared Union Solidarity and
Development Association (USDA) shadowed their route. The USDA has played a
prominent role in breaking up protests against soaring fuel prices that
began four weeks ago.

They videotaped and photographed the monks, who were also watched by
hundreds of people, some of whom paid obeisance to them, witnesses said.
There were no arrests.

One middle-aged monk said the boycott would go ahead.

"For me, I have imposed it on them since 1990 and I'll keep it on," he said.

A similar protest was held in Bago, 50 miles north of Yangon, where exiled
groups reported 1,000 monks marching to the town's pagoda.

REFUSING ALMS

The Myanmar-language services of foreign broadcasters have said an
alliance of monks had demanded an apology for soldiers firing shots to
disperse a demonstration by monks in the town of Pakokku two weeks ago.

Such a boycott is taken extremely seriously in the devoutly Buddhist
country. Without such rites, a Buddhist loses all chance of attaining
nirvana, or release from the cycle of rebirth.

Although the army has run Myanmar since a 1962 coup, September 18 is the
anniversary of the latest incarnation of the junta, which now goes by the
name of State Peace and Development Council.

Monks launched a similar boycott in 1990 shortly after the generals
refused to honor the results of a general election they had lost by a
landslide.

Earlier the monasteries were key players in a nationwide uprising against
military rule in 1988 and analysts say the generals have been at pains to
treat the monks carefully this time around.

Official newspapers have given prominent coverage to men in uniform making
donations in temples -- and having them accepted -- especially in
Mandalay, the nation's second city and home to 300,000 monks.

____________________________________

September 18, Kachin News Group
Monks in Myitkyina under virtual house arrest in monasteries

Buddhist monks in Myitkyina Township, capital of Kachin State in Northern
Burma have been put under virtual house arrest.  They have been ordered to
stay in their rooms in the monasteries by the junta authorities since
Saturday evening. This explains the mysterious disappearance of the monks
over the weekend.

The monks are being fed by the military authorities and are not being
allowed to go even out of their rooms since the weekend, according to
local devotees.

There has been so significant movement of monks inside the precincts of
the monasteries in Myitkyina over the last three days. However, several of
Burma's ruling junta's security agents, including police personnel and
soldiers can be seen inside and outside the monasteries, eyewitnesses told
KNG today.

"I can't see monks as usual in the monasteries around Myitkyina Township
such as in Wuntu Monastery in Shanzu South Quarter, Myo-Oo and Andawshin
Monasteries in Yangyi Aung Quarter, and monasteries in Tatkone,
Kyunpyintar, Aung Nan and Nan Thidar Quarters.  But I can see security
agents both in uniform and plain clothes, policemen and soldiers inside
and outside the monasteries," a resident of Myitkyina told KNG this
evening.

There are about 200 student monks called Koyins and monastic leaders in
each monastery, said local Buddhist devotees.

All monks have been forced to stay in their rooms in the monasteries and
are not being allowed to go out of the monasteries' compounds and outside
on the orders of Commander Maj-Gen Ohn Myint of Kachin State, said sources
close to authorities in Myitkyina.

Things are quiet at the moment in Myitkyina but the soldiers are guarding
the junta's Kachin State Administrative Office (Pa-Ya-Ka) and homes of
high ranking military officers of the Northern Command Headquarters,
eyewitnesses said.

Today, hundreds of monks marched in protest against the junta's high
handedness in Kyaukpadaung in central Burma and Rangoon, former capital of
the country, after the junta denied having had the monks beaten up in an
earlier rally in Pakokko in Magwi Division, near Mandalay.

It is the latest in a wave of protests sweeping across Burma which started
last month, when the regime jacked up fuel prices.

____________________________________

September 18, Democratic Voice of Burma
Chauk monk attacked after protest

A monk from the Magwe township of Chauk was pelted with stones by a group
of unidentified men on Sunday after taking part in a protest against
government harassment.

U Withuda from the Ngwe Taung monastery in western Chauk township said he
was talking to a group of other monks in the monastery on Sunday night
when a group of men threw rocks over the wall of the compound.

“I got hit on my head and now there is a deep cut there. I don’t know why
those men had to do that,” U Withuda said.

He said the group of men was seen quickly fleeing the area after the
incident on a motorbike and that many monks from the monastery believed
the attack was staged by government supporters.

“We came out of the monastery compound to try to identify the men but they
sped off . . . We think the attack was planned by the local authorities,”
U Withuda said.

U Withuda and a group of about 30 other monks staged a protest march in
Chauk on Sunday.

____________________________________

September 18, Irrawaddy
Prominent Burmese woman activist arrested in Rangoon - Saw Yan Naing

A prominent Burmese woman activist who has been in hiding, Naw Ohn Hla,
was arrested by authorities in Rangoon on Tuesday, according to sources
close to her.

The source said that more than 200 members of the military-backed Union
Solidarity Development Association appeared in the neighborhood where she
was hiding.

However, Naw Ohn Hla, who is an ex-member of the National League for
Democracy, had left her hiding place and was enroute to pray at the
Shwedagon Pagoda for the release of pro-democracy leaders and Aung San Suu
Kyi.

Authorities arrested her at about 12 p.m. while she was on her way to the
pagoda, said the source, who said she prayed there every Tuesday.

Naw Ohn Hla is one of the leading members who led earlier protest
demonstrations in Sanchaung Township in Rangoon Division.

____________________________________
BUSINESS / TRADE

September 18, Narinjara News
Businessmen forced to buy fuel for patrol vehicles

Maungdaw: Businessmen and wealthy families are being forced to pay for
fuel for vehicles, including fire engines that are being used by township
authorities to patrol Maungdaw, Arakan state, Burma to maintain law and
order. The authorities have collected money from us, said a Maungdaw
businessman on condition of anonymity.

"I was forced by township authorities to pay 30,000 kyat for vehicles used
for patrolling by the authorities for security purposes. The authorities
sent a hand-written letter requesting me to donate some money but not less
than 10,000 kyat for the security of the town," he said.

Many townspeople had to donate anywhere between 10,000 to 100,000 kyat to
township authorities to buy fuel for the vehicles at the authorities'
request.

Security personnel have been patrolling the streets of Maungdaw in several
vehicles since the situation in Burma became restless after the government
increased fuel prices last month.

Several government law enforcement agencies, including Nasaka, riot
police, policemen, fire services, and peoples' militias have formed armed
patrol teams under the supervision of township chairman U Myint Mung, a
source said.

Moreover, the authorities need funds to provide food and other necessities
for members of the patrol teams.

The teams are still patrolling the streets in several government vehicles
night and day to prevent and quell any brewing demonstrations in Maungdaw,
townspeople said.

Maungdaw is on the Bangladesh border and is the most populated township in
Arakan. The majority of the residents are Muslims and it's believed public
demonstrations could begin in the town at any time.

____________________________________
DRUGS

September 17, Reuters
U.S. says Myanmar, Venezuela fall short in drugs fight - Paul Eckert

Myanmar and Venezuela have "failed demonstrably" to do enough to fight
illegal drugs for a third straight year, said a U.S. report on Monday that
waived sanctions on Caracas to maintain aid for democracy programs.
The 20 countries identified as major illicit drug transit and drug
producing countries in the annual U.S. presidential report to Congress
were unchanged from 2006, but Washington said allies Afghanistan and
Colombia had made some progress.

"Burma and Venezuela have failed demonstrably during the previous 12
months to adhere to their obligations under international counternarcotics
agreements and take the measures set forth in U.S. law," said the report,
using the former name of military-ruled Myanmar.

"However, the president determined to maintain U.S. programs that aid
Venezuela's democratic institutions," it said. Countries that fail to meet
anti-drug commitments can have non-humanitarian U.S. aid programs cut.

The report identified Afghanistan, the Bahamas, Bolivia, Brazil, Burma,
Colombia, Dominican Republic , Ecuador, Guatemala, Haiti, India, Jamaica ,
Laos, Mexico, Nigeria, Pakistan, Panama, Paraguay, Peru and Venezuela as
major drug transit or major illicit drug producing countries.

Christy McCampbell, the State Department's top drug enforcement diplomat,
said Washington still worked with Caracas despite strained ties with
Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez, but wanted more anti-drug cooperation.

"We still do work with the police there and do eradication efforts. One of
our greatest concerns though is the corruption there with
narco-trafficking and it is such a transit country it's just becoming a
real hub for drugs," she said.

Myanmar, Asia's largest source of methamphetamine pills, was "very
lackluster" in interdiction and fighting corruption, said McCampbell,
deputy assistant secretary for counternarcotics.

"The country's declining poppy cultivation has been matched by a sharp
increase in methamphetamine production," she said at a news conference.

The report said one third of Afghanistan's economy remains opium-based,
fueling corruption and boosting the militant Taliban insurgency.
McCampbell said, however, that 13 Afghan provinces had become poppy-free
and northern provinces had made some headway against opium, the raw
material for heroin.

Bolivia, the world's third-largest cocaine producer, has done enough to
fight the drug trade in the past year to avoid U.S. sanctions, but had
uneven results, McCampbell said.

The Andean country met a U.S. target of eradicating at least 12,360 acres
of coca, the main ingredient in cocaine, the report said. But Bolivian
President Evo Morales' "zero cocaine, but not zero coca" policy had
focused primarily on interdiction and not enough on eradication and
alternative development for growers, it said.

In response to the report, Bolivian Interior Minister Alfredo Rada told
Erbol radio the U.S. recognition of progress did not change his
government's view that the U.S. annual practice was "unilateral and
colonialist."

"It is a mechanism that is losing force in the new Latin American
context," Rada said.

____________________________________
REGIONAL

September 18, Khonumthung News
UNHCR, India suspends registration of new comers from Burma

The office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) in
New Delhi, India yesterday announced the indefinite suspension of
registration for new comers from Burma. The decision takes affect from
today.

The reason for the suspension has to do with the increasing number of new
comers from Burma and the backlog which needs to be cleared by the UNHCR
office in New Delhi. This is delaying the registration of Burmese people
who seek refugee status.

The UNHCR notification said it would try to clear the backlog before the
end of November, 2007.

However, the UNHCR office did not mention the date of reopening
registrations for newly arrived people from Burma.

The inefficiency of staff members in the office has held up the process of
interviewing and decision making for granting refugee status, said
Margarita Vargav, legal officer of the UNHCR office in New Delhi, at an
open house meeting for Burmese refugees held in August.

"I agree with the decision of the UNHCR as there are a lot of cases still
remaining to be dealt with. Some people have been waiting for two to three
years," said Jeremiah Lishang Chuiha, president of the Chin Refugees
Committee (CRC) in New Delhi.

 "The UNHCR office also assured intervention or necessary action in case
of deportation of Burmese by Indian authorities, he added.

There are 270 pending cases and 35 appeal cases locked in files in the
UNHCR in New Delhi, CRC said. Moreover, over 100 minor cases (less than
the age of 18) are registered in the UNHCR office.

There are over 2,000 refugees, majority from Chin state, Burma living in
New Delhi and among them, 1800 have been granted refugee status by the
UNHCR office, according to Other Media (Refugee Desk) in India.

____________________________________

September 18, Mizzima News
India's Petroleum Minister to visit Burma - Syed Ali Mujtaba

Union Petroleum Minister Murli Deora will visit Burma from September 23 to
look at the potential to tap hydrocarbon discoveries in the neighbouring
country.

"The Minister will be there to witness the production sharing contract
(PSC) signing between the ONGC Videsh Ltd and the Myanmar government for
stakes in three Rakhine (Arakan) offshore deepwater blocks," said a senior
petroleum ministry official.

Moreover, Murli Deora will hold talks with Brigadier General Lun Thi,
Burma's Minister of Energy to revise the decision of turning down India's
bid to natural gas from Burma's western off shore blocks, A1 and A3.

India is likely to try and lobby for a reversal of that decision, sources
said.

The agenda includes diesel exports from Numaligarh refinery to Burma and
training of its engineers by Indian public sector units across the
hydrocarbon value chain.

Even though the companies together hold 30 percent stake in the blocks,
the Burmese junta had recently decided that the gas from A1 and A3 blocks
would be sold to China through a pipeline.
Energy security is important for sustaining India's more than eight
percent economic growth. India procures 78 percent of its energy needs
from abroad.

____________________________________
INTERNATIONAL

September 18, BreakingNews.ie
Burma refugees move into resettlement centre

Families from war-torn Burma were beginning a new life in Co Mayo today
under a special UN refugee resettlement programme.

A group of 50 men, women and children have come from an isolated refugee
camp on Burma's border with Thailand.

A further 45 people will arrive in Ireland in mid-November.

The group will be accommodated in a training centre in Ballyhaunis, Co
Mayo, to prepare them for permanent resettlement in Castlebar.

The refugees were referred to the Government's resettlement programme by
the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR).

Ireland is only one of six European countries that participate in the
initiative.

"Resettlement is considered only as a last resort when all other options
for these people have been considered," said a spokesman for the
Department of Community, Rural and Gaeltacht Affairs.

"Most refugees hope to return to their country of origin to rebuild their
lives and when that option is not available their second preferred option
is to rebuild their lives in familiar surroundings in another country in
the region.

"Following arrival in Ireland, the group, consisting of 10 families, will
initially be accommodated in an orientation training centre in
Ballyhaunis, Co Mayo, where they will receive training to prepare them for
independent living in preparation for permanent resettlement in Castlebar,
Co Mayo."

Last year 180 Iranian Kurds arrived from a refugee camp in Jordan and were
resettled in Sligo, Carrick-on-Shannon and Mullingar, where they are
adjusting well to life in Ireland.

A total of 29,560 refugees were resettled in 15 countries worldwide under
UNHCR-sponsored programmes.

The Simon Cumbers Media Challenge Fund, which is grant-aided by Irish Aid,
financed media projects in Burma during 2007.

More than 160,000 people in Burma have been forced to flee their homes
since 1990 due to persecution from the ruling military regime. They live
in several refugee camps on the border with Thailand where NGOs provide
essential humanitarian services.

Opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi has been under house arrest in Rangoon
for almost 12 years.

The Irish Government has raised awareness of the politician's plight many
times and U2 and songwriter Damien Rice have dedicated songs to her.

Burma is one of the poorest countries in Asia and up to 40% of national
income is spent on the military.

Trocaire aid agency helps run projects in the refugee camps in conjunction
with the Thailand Burmese Border Consortium NGO.

Last year Irish aid helped fund two independent reports on the torture and
deaths of political prisoners in Burma.

____________________________________
OPINION / OTHER

September 18, Mizzima News
Courage of the sons of Buddha will finally tip the scale - May Ng

Recent events are proof that, though their faith in the world's highest
body has eroded since China and Russia vetoed the latest UNSC resolution
to encourage peaceful political reconciliation in Burma, Burmese people
are more resolved than ever to continue pressing for democracy in their
country on their own.

China continues to deny that escalating political conflicts and government
atrocities in Burma pose a threat to peace and security in the region,
while, according to Amnesty International, China has been the main
supplier of weapons, cash, and political and strategic support for Burma
since 1988. The report also said that India, with China and Russia, the
two permanent members of UNSC, supplied Myanmar Army with military
equipment, army vehicles, and aircrafts.

In the meantime, the Amnesty International, ILO, UN Human Rights
Commission, ICRC, EU, Human Rights Watch, and other NGOs have all reported
that the Myanmar regime routinely commit rape, torture, extrajudicial
executions, forcible relocation, forced labour, and forcible recruitment
of child soldiers.

But the late discovery of large oil and gas deposits in Burma has meant
that even India, the largest democracy, refuses to interfere in Burma's
internal affairs. Instead China and India are selectively drawing on their
shared past experiences in 'anti-colonialism and
resistance-to-foreigners,' to justify their diplomacy of 'none
interference' on Myanmar's sovereignty, to remain on the good side of the
army generals in Burma.

During the period right after World War II, the Communist government in
China promoted the centuries old 'opposition to encroachments upon the
territorial and political integrity of Chinese sovereignty' as 'the
supreme interest of each government and people,' reasoning that there will
be no human rights without the sovereignty.

Burma is being affected by this selective and misguided use of the
definition of 'sovereignty' by greedy China and India. While India may
claim to be ignorant of domestic tyranny, it will be false for China to
claim to suffer less in the hands of its own people during the Cultural
Revolution between 1969 and 1979 than in the hands of foreigners during
past colonialism.

The Chinese may or may not prefer to be abused by their own leaders than
foreigners, the world history indicates that since the end of second world
war, many nations continue to suffer not from foreign invasions but from
native barbarity, risen from post war extreme nationalism and strong man
politics.

Burma under the native despotic rule is beginning to suffer also from the
curse of natural resource riches, as great powers of Asia are vying over
Burma's treasures while disregarding the great sufferings their actions
entail.

The UN Watch reported in November 2006 that, beside China , Russia and
India, the United Nations also routinely failed to address gross human
rights violations. And the UN failed to end politicizing and selectivity
in championing the UN Charter's democratic values. The UN Watch continued
that although UN Human Rights Council had heard more than 40 special
rapporteurs' reports identifying serious human rights issues in countries
like Burma, it acted on none of them.

To remedy these, the UN Watch recommended that the UN Human Rights
Council's liberal democratic members must become more assertive and
proactive and speak out sooner, and more often, and in greater numbers,
and stop allowing the repressive regimes to dominate the debate at the UN.

The recent bloody crackdown in Burma has prompted the International
Federation for Human Rights and the Parliament of the European Union to
call for new programme of sanctions by EU members and to call on the ASEAN
to take more robust measures against the military, exceeding the power of
China in Asia.

In spite of United State's steadfast support in advocating for human
rights and democracy in Burma, and a deep commitment by the first lady
Laura Bush, an independent political observer, the ISA Consultants, has
given the U.S. a less than favourable report for its failure to follow up
on the political rhetoric with hard actions.

The ISA reported that 'while President Bush is likely to press Chinese
Premier Hu Jintao on Myanmar at the APEC summit, there appears to be
little political will in Washington for a confrontation, given Chinese
cooperation on North Korea. Myanmar does not loom large on the US State
Department's foreign policy radar and it is this fact that has allowed
India to cultivate its ties with Naypyidaw.'

While the world still has to take a decisive action on Burma, the Burmese
people are braving the storms and forging ahead with the struggle for
freedom and democracy on their own.

And it may yet be the best indication that Burma is moving in the right
direction.

Professor Michael Mandelbaum of Johns Hopkins wrote in 'Democracy without
America' that President Bush's military engagements in Afghanistan and
Iraq; and other U.S. efforts to foster democracy in Lebanon, the
Palestinian territories, and Egypt; have not succeeded. And the previous
Clinton administration's military interventions in Somalia, Haiti, Bosnia
, and Kosovo had also failed to establish democracy.

But, he said that the failure of Washington 's democracy promotion since
the founding of the Republic has not meant the failure of democracy
itself. For, even though only ten countries were democracies in 1900, by
2005, 119 out of the world's 190 countries had become democracies.


>From all indications, though it has been long and brutal, the NLD, ethnic

politicians, and the students, have been on the right track all along.
They have been steadfast in their determination to succeed, and have
remained the masters of their own cause from 1988 uprising to the present
confrontation with the military junta.

Finally, like Aung San Suu Kyi, Min Ko Naing, and ethnic leader Khun Tun
Oo, the monks of Burma have spoken.

And for evil doers and thugs, who regularly batter peaceful citizens, the
time to skip town is coming nearer as Burma's spiritual and moral
authority is beginning to reassert its power.

At last it is time for the world to take note and black list, the men who
bash up helpless citizens, and the generals who commit crimes against
humanity in the cover of darkness; and ban them from the civilized world.

____________________________________

September 18, Irrawaddy
The longest coup: Did China plan to invade Burma in 1988? - Aung Zaw

Exactly 19 years ago, on September 18, 1988, the Burmese army claimed it
was forced to stage a military coup to save Burma from chaos and
instability. An academic paper recently published by the Asia Research
Institute at the National University of Singapore sheds some new light on
the role of China and America in the uprising, although the facts
themselves are still in dispute.

The paper, written by a Burmese scholar, claims that China had a plan to
invade Burma, if US troops landed in Burma. Burma watchers who are
familiar with the 1988 uprising, however, are not ready to swallow the
argument of a US military takeover attempt or China invasion theory.

The research paper, “A Historical Overview of Political Transition in
Myanmar Since 1988” by Maung Aung Myoe claims Burma's military leaders saw
signs of a  “foreign intervention” in September 1988.

When millions of Burmese took to the streets, US Congressman Stephen J.
Solarz paid a one-day visit to Burma on September 3, about two weeks
before the Burmese army staged its coup.

Solarz met with Dr Maung Maung, then president of Burma (who supported the
military takeover), and other top officials. He also met with opposition
leaders including Aung San Suu Kyi and Tin Oo, the former army chief and
is now the chairman of the National League for Democracy. Both are now
under house arrest.

The US congressman’s visit did not cause alarm among the generals. But the
subsequent sighting of a US aircraft carrier and naval fleet in "Burmese
waters" was a major concern, Maung Aung Myoe writes in his paper.

Singapore-based Maung Aung Myoe, who is considered to be close to military
officials and is believed to have rare access to the armed forces
(Tatmadaw), wrote: “The sighting of a US naval fleet of five warships,
including the aircraft carrier Coral Sea, within the Myanmar territorial
waters on the morning of 12 September 1988 became a cause for concern for
the Tatmadaw.”

The military authorities lodged an official complaint and sought an
explanation from the US embassy in Rangoon for the brief but threatening
presence of US warships.

The US embassy said the US naval fleet was for the evacuation of US
embassy staff in Burma. But according to Burmese authorities, 276 people,
including some US embassy staff, had been evacuated on the evening of 11
September on chartered aircraft.

Maung Aung Myoe wrote in his paper that the US embassy in Rangoon
repeatedly requested permission from Burmese authorities to land C-130
military aircraft in Rangoon for evacuation purposes.

“The Myanmar authorities had rejected the request by explaining that such
an activity might not only lead to further confusion among the general
public, but send a wrong signal to regional neighbours.”

Bertil Lintner, the author of several books on Burma, notes that it is not
unusual to send naval vessels to an area that is in turmoil. “But that
doesn't mean that they (the US) are going to invade. I think Maung Aung
Myoe is just trying to find excuses for the 18 Sept coup, which I am
certain was planned long before 12 September.” He said the US fleet was
actually in the Indian Ocean not in Burmese waters.

At the time, the US embassy also issued a statement saying reports
claiming the US fleet was in Burmese territorial waters was not true.
Military leaders, after the coup, mentioned the presence of the US fleet
in press conferences and warned of possible foreign intervention.

Many activists who took to the streets in September naively believed the
US was preparing to stage an invasion and distributed leaflets claiming an
invasion was on the way.

But hold your breath. If US armed forces were planning to invade Burma,
China reportedly had a plan to invade Shan State, according to the
research paper.

Maung Aung Myoe writes: “At the same time, there were movements of troops
from the People's Liberation Army (PLA) of China along the Myanmar border.
Several PLA brigades were deployed along the border and put on alert.”

The paper says Burmese military authorities informed the Chinese military
attaché that the people's uprising would be under control in a fairly
short period of time.

“They (Burmese) even sent a delegation to the Myanmar border to meet
senior PLA officers and to verify the situation and assure that no foreign
power would interfere in Myanmar’s internal affairs. There had been some
reports that the PLA was quite prepared to take the Shan state, by using
the BCP [Burmese Communist Party] as a front, if the US fleet or troops
landed in Myanmar.”

However, veteran members of the Communist Party of Burma say the China
invasion theory is ridiculous.

Hla Kyaw Zaw, the daughter of Brig Gen Kyaw Zaw who received military
training along with independence hero Gen Aung San in Japan in the early
1940s and who now lives in China, told The Irrawaddy that there were no
Chinese troop movements along the border in September 1988. Hla Kyaw Zaw,
who is also a CPB member, was based on the China-Burma border in 1988.

China was a strong supporter of the CPB in the 1960s and 1970s but stopped
supporting Burmese communists in the early 1980s, particularly after the
end of the “cultural revolution” in China. In fact, since China had
decided to stop its military support to CPB units along the border, the
Burmese army launched a series of successful military offensives against
the CPB.

Southeast Asia specialist Lintner, who traveled along the
China-Burma-India border in 1986 and 1987 and interviewed several CPB
leaders during his 18-month journey, added: “The CPB did nothing during
the 1988 uprising. It was only when it was over that they took Mong Yang
in Shan State and fought a major battle in the north.”

Hla Kyaw Zaw who was at the Mong Yang battle said the Chinese were not
interested in taking over Shan State or Burma.

She said, “In the past, our military commanders asked the Chinese (to
invade Burma), but they always replied they wouldn't.”

Maung Aung Myoe also claims in his paper that during the uprising various
ethnic insurgent groups, including the Karen National Liberation Army,
were preparing major offensives against Burmese troops.

Again, Lintner disputes his statement: “The KNLA was doing nothing, just
enjoying some breathing space, because the 22nd LID (Light Infantry
Division) had been withdrawn to Rangoon (to control the situation there).”
 He said the Karens became involved only after hundreds of students from
the Burmese cities fled to the border after the September 18, 1988 coup.

Summing up the junta's reasons to take state power, Maung Aung Myoe
writes: “The Tatmadaw by then realized that it had to fight the major
battles at two fronts. With the chaos in Yangon (Rangoon) and other major
cities, the Tatmadaw could not fight wars in the border areas; therefore,
it appeared to take quick action to restore law and order in the cities.”
The "quick action" was the slaughter of thousands of monks, students, men,
women and children.

After nineteen years, the military regime still claims the September 18,
1988 coup restored “peace, stability and prosperity” in the country—and
they are still not prepared to leave.

____________________________________

September 18, Mizzima News
Burma: on the road to political chaos as junta fears growing public
protests is challenging their control - Larry Jagan

Burma's continuing political crisis is coming to a major crossroads with
the future of the ruling military junta now increasingly uncertain. The
country's top military rulers have called an emergency meeting of the
ruling State Peace and Development Council to plot their strategy for the
coming months.

The top dozen generals who control virtually every aspect of life in Burma
are due to meet next week in the new capital Naypidaw, some four hundred
kilometres north of Rangoon, to plan for the promise political change now
the National Convention has drawn up the guidelines for the new
constitution. A massive shake-up in government and the military hierarchy
also expected to help prepare for the transition to a form of guided
democracy.

This quarterly meeting of the top generals will take place amid growing
public anger at the government's failed economic policies, growing
anti-military protests by some of the country's revered monks, and
increased international pressure for change.

For the first time in nearly twenty years, there have been sporadic but
sustained public protests in the streets of Rangoon and other provincial
cities against rising food and fuel prices.

There are now growing signs that the government's usual response – a
concerted crack down on dissidents – is beginning to back-fire with the
revered Buddhist monks now starting to vent their anger against the
regime.

They are now beginning to stage their own protests in the wake of the
violent treatment suffered by a group of monks who joined the protest two
weeks ago.

This political cauldron is now threatening to boil over and Burma's
generals appear to be at a loss over what they should do. "In the midst of
a very uncertain period, the generals are trying to carry on with business
as usual," said a senior European diplomat based in Bangkok who has dealt
with the military regime for more than a decade. The generals'  greatest
fear now seems to be about to be unleased – mass protests led by students
and monks, similar to those which brought down the former dictator,
General Ne Win in 1988.

At the same time international pressure on the junta to introduce
political reform has increased in response to the brutal crack-down on the
peaceful protestors. While the international community remained uniformed
and largely unaware of the tragic events unfolding in Rangoon, 19 years
ago, this time they are extremely concerned and vocal.

The UN secretary general's special advisor, Ibrahim Gambari plans to visit
Burma within the next few weeks before reporting back to the UN General
Assembly later next month.

The issue of Burma is also certain to be put back on the UN Security
Council agenda in the next few weeks, according to diplomats in New York.
This will force Burma to call on its friends, especially China, for
support. This time though their allies may be more cautious in their
defence of the Burmese regime – and may demand concessions in return for
their votes.

Last week Beijing summoned the Burmese foreign minister, Nyan Win to China
where he met the senior Chinese state councillor, Tang Jiaxuan at the
headquarters of the Chinese government, Zhongnanhai. By Nyan Win was
received as an envoy of the senior general rathe than foreign minister in
the country's seat of power – the party. This was extremely significant –
at least symbolically.

He was told in no uncertain terms that China could not tolerate an
unstable Burma and feared that the protests were getting out of hand,
according to Chinese diplomats. They strongly advised the Burmese
government to treat the protests seriously and do nothing to endanger
regional stability. They urged the junta to push forward with democratic
reforms in order to ensure peace and stability.

Then last weekend another senior diplomatic delegation was despatched to
Moscow to muster support for the Burmese military regime as it faces
further pressure at the UN and another attempt to secure a Security
Council resolution – last time China and Russia used their vetos to
prevent it being passed.

All this is casting a long shadow over Burma's political future, with the
junta increasing tentative in its plans. The key issue remains, how do the
junta leaders intend to move forward with their proposed political reforms
now that the National Convention has ended its constitutional discussions
–
deliberations that took 14 years to conclude.

The National Convention, which had been meeting intermittently since the
beginning of 1993 to draw up a new charter, ended its last session with a
document outlining the principles for the country's new constitution which
would effectively leave political power in the hands of the military.

The next step in Burma's roadmap to democracy will be a referendum on the
new constitution, after it has been formally drafted, probably sometime
next year, according to government sources. Elections would then be held
some time in 2009. It seems stage two on the former prime minister Khin
Nyunt's roadmap -- creating conditions for peace and democracy will be
dispensed with, as Than Shwe is now anxious to go immediately to the
referendum process.

As yet, political parties are unable to operate openly in Burma. The
offices of the main pro-democracy party, the National League for Democracy
(NLD) have been compulsorily closed for years, apart from its headquarters
in Rangoon. Amnesty International estimates there are still more than a
thousand political prisoners languishing in Burma's jails. The NLD's top
two leaders, Aung San Suu Kyi and U Tin U are still under house arrest and
unlikely to be released before elections are held.

The country's third top general and army chief, Thura Shwe Mann told the
Chinese leaders earlier this year when he visited Beijing on a secret
mission that Aung San Suu Kyi – who has spent more than 12 of the last 18
years in detention -- could not be released anytime soon as she remained a
major security risk.

At the moment it is unclear whether the opposition leader's party, the NLD
will be allowed to run in the elections that follow the referendum on the
new constitution. Burma's top general, Than Shwe told the UN envoy Ibrahim
Gambari, when he met him last November in the new capital Naypidaw, that
the NLD would be permitted to field candidates in future elections, but
most analysts believe the military will find some pretext to disqualify
them.

The next stage of the roadmap will be the key issue discussed at the SPDC
meeting, according to a reliable government source. A drafting committee
to complete the formal constitutional document will be set up, as well as
an election committee to oversee the planned referendum and elections.
Before the national Convention finished, many of its provincial and rural
members were instructed to return home and form local parties, with
prominent citizens in the region, to fight the election.

The biggest obstacle to progress towards the military's planned paternal
democracy, so far endorsed by the regime's Chinese backers – will be
disarming the ethnic rebel groups that have ceasefire pacts with the
junta.

Tension is already mounting as the military government tries to force the
key groups top disarm. None of them are prepare to lay down their weapons
while their demands for a measure of autonomy and cultural rights have
been effectively ignored by the SPDC leaders.

Many of them, especially the powerful Wa and Kachin in northern Burma in
the border area with China, are now so dissatisfied with their exclusion
from the constitutional process that they have begun to rearm and are now
threatening to resume their armed struggle against the Burmese army, if
their demands are not taken seriously before the draft constitution is put
to a referendum.

While the junta mulls over what it will do next, its brutal suppression of
the recent protests against the rising fuel and food prices reflects its
strong distaste for real democratic reform.

The authorities have arrested hundreds of people for organising and
participating in small protest marches throughout Burma in the last few
weeks. Several thousand pro-government vigilantes, armed with wooden
batons and sticks have attacked the marchers in Rangoon and throughout the
country, leaving them badly beaten.

Over the past few weeks, sporadic, irregular public protests against
soaring inflation have rocked the Burmese regime, since the government's
sudden increase in fuel prices. Small peaceful protest marches are
continuing to be staged in many parts of Burma, especially in the
country's main commercial city, Rangoon. These demonstrations have spread
to several other parts of the country.

In the most critical incident, nearly two weeks ago, a hundred monks took
to the streets of a small town in central Burma, Pakokku near Mandalay.
They were beaten by vigilantes, leaving several monks badly injured. The
protest was eventually quelled when the security forces opened fire on
them.

The monks are demanding an apology from the government for the treated
meted out to the monks at Pakokku, which has so far not been forthcoming.
As a result a ban on taking alms from the military is in place in many
local areas in Burma – though at this stage it is not nation-wide.

The military's characteristic response has been to step up repression. In
an  unprecedented move, police and security forces have been deployed
outside the monasteries in the key Buddhist cities of Mandalay, Moulmein
and Pakkoku, Pegu, as well as Rangoon to prevent the monks getting
involved in further protests. They have issued appeals to the monks and
public not to come out into the streets through the state-controlled
media.

Monasteries in many towns, including Mandalay, Moulmein, Pegu and Rangoon
have been closed and the monks, especially the novice monks, told to
return to their homes. A key teaching university for monks in Rangoon has
also been closed. Hundreds of monks have now taken to the streets to
demonstrate their anger at the military's actions.

The military have also seized the most important temple in Rangoon, the
Shwedagon. It is closed to the public and occupied by hundreds of troops –
reminiscent of the events of 1988.

Public protests are very rare in Burma as the military regime keeps a
tight grip on the population. But the numbers joining these marches have
grown since more than a hundred people joined the first demonstration
demanding  that the government immediately lower fuel and food prices in
the middle of August. The action against the monks and closing of
monasteries and temples has also further infuriated the ordinary people.

"The current protests are still economic for sure," a leading Burmese
activist based in Thailand with close links to the organisers of the
protests, Khin Ohmar told Mizzima. "But everyone recognises that the root
cause of the inflation is the junta's economic mismanagement."

Many activists are already drawing comparisons with the events if the last
few weeks and the mass pro-democracy demonstrations in 1988 forced the
authoritarian leader, General Ne Win to resign. Mass protests, involving
students, civil servants, workers and monks brought the country to a
standstill for months until the military brutally crushed the movement and
seized power in a coup on 18 September 1988.

So far the signs are that while people are angry they are not yet prepared
to risk joining the protests. But there is no doubt a fury is bubbling
away under the surface. Rising rice prices would almost certainly be the
last straw. And with the heavy rains and flooding in Burma's rice bowl,
yields and supply will be substantially reduced compared to last few
years. "A hungry man is an angry man," a Rangoon taxi driver told a
foreign journalist recently.

"Its not human rights we are concerned about; we just want them [the
military government] to stop treating us like animals," one of the
organisers told Mizzima.

Although the public anger and the protest marchers are still only focusing
on economic issues, it will inevitably turn political, according to Ms
Ohmar. "At the moment the movement is not talking about power at this
stage. But by concentrating on what really concerns people in their daily
lives, people will be encouraged to participate and that will eventually
generate a momentum for real change – that's what happened in 1988," Ms
Ohmar said.

The dramatic events of August 1988 took months to evolve. It started in
fact in late 1987 with demonetisation and the withdrawal of some currency
notes, which wiped out peoples' savings overnight. The initial peaceful
protest marches were suspended after the regime violently cracked down on
them. But some three months later the students initiated a fresh series of
protests which grew into a mass movement by August. The involvement if the
country's Buddhist monks proved critical at that time.

For the first time since the momentous events of 1988 brought down the
country's dictator and his one-party rule, the Burmese military government
is facing concerted public protests against its continued control of
power. If the regime mishandles these small, sporadic protests they could
easily escalate into demonstrations demanding the end of military rule.

"Burma is a social volcano ready to erupt," according to a leading Burmese
businessman. "These prices increases may just be the spark that ignites
it."

(Larry Jagan is a freelance journalist and Burma specialist based in
Bangkok. He was formerly the News and Current Affairs editor for Asia and
the Pacific at the BBC World Service.)