BurmaNet News, October 23, 2007

[Editor]

October 23, 2007 Issue # 3326

INSIDE BURMA
DVB: NLD members face two years’ imprisonment
Mizzima: Two locals arrested in place of key activist
IMNA: Moulmein residents worried about monks
IHT: Burmese monks are shown the limits of their moral authority - Choe
Sang-Hun

ANALYSIS
Mizzima News: Is dialogue a game for generals? - Htet Aung Kyaw

ON THE BORDER
AsiaNews: Over 20 thousand Christians gather in Manipur to pray for Myanmar
Khonumthung News: Christians pray for Burma

BUSINESS / TRADE
Irrawaddy: Tay Za grounded
Xinhua: Myanmar postpones holding mid-year gems emporium
Irrawaddy: Burmese products rejected by Swiss, S. African buyers
DPA via www.eux.tv: Danish pension scheme sells assets linked to Myanmar Oil

HEALTH / AIDS
Mizzima News: Detained NLD spokesperson's health deteriorates

REGIONAL
Mizzima News: Gambari happy with Indian response
AFP: Environmental group appeals to China to stop Myanmar dam project
The Straits Times (Singapore): Singapore's arms sales to Myanmar not
substantial;
No deals in recent years; weapons sold not suited to counter civilian
unrest; economic links limited, says George Yeo - Goh Chin Lian

INTERNATIONAL
AFP: UN says Myanmar agrees to rights visit
New Zealand Herald: Michael Richardson: China's priority for Myanmar is
stability rather than reform
FIDH/ITUC: Preliminary Key Findings of a Joint FIDH-ITUC Mission on Burma

OPINION / OTHER
South China Morning Post: A Buddhist solution for Myanmar's woes? - James
Rose
Asia Times: ASEAN key to Myanmar change - Michael Vatikiotis

PRESS RELEASE
BCUK: DFID defies MPs on Burma aid – no support for democracy or
cross-border aid

____________________________________
INSIDE BURMA

October 23, Democratic Voice of Burma
NLD members face two years’ imprisonment

Four National League for Democracy party members, including an elected
member of the people's parliament, have each been sentenced to two years’
imprisonment by their local courts.

People's parliament representative Myint Kyi and NLD's communication
department member Zaw Min, from Kathar township, Sagaing division, were
sentenced yesterday, as were NLD members Shwe Pain and Chan Aung from Inn
Daw township, also in Sagaing division.

The four were charged under section 505(b) of the penal code, for causing
public alarm or disturbing state tranquility, and imprisoned for two
years, according to NLD's spokesperson Nyan Win.

"It wasn’t only NLD members who protested. In fact, there were even some
of us who did not join the protests but were arrested later anyway," Nyan
Win said.

“I think this is the government’s attempt to prevent the NLD from carrying
out their activities.”

____________________________________

October 23, Mizzima News
Two locals arrested in place of key activist

Two locals were arrested in Pakhokku town in Magwe division of central
Burma on suspicion of having helped a key activist evade arrest, local
residents said.

Local residents said, Chan Zaw Myo (25), and Tun Naing (34) both residents
of Pakhokku were summoned by local police on October 17 for interrogation.
While Chan Zaw Myo was released the next day, Tun Naing continues to be
detained.

Police have been searching for an activist, Zarni, suspected of planning
and participating in the recent protests in Pakhokku. They have accused
Tun Naing of helping Zarni to evade arrest.

The recent protests, which began with the agitation over the junta's
sudden hike in fuel prices in mid August, snowballed when monks in
Pakhokku were ill-treated by local authorities during their initial
peaceful march joining other people calling for a roll back in fuel
prices.

Enraged over the ill-treatment of monks in Pakhokku, monks across Burma
boycotted the ruling junta and demanded the authorities apologize. The
junta's failure to apologize led the monks to overturn their alms bowls
and the protest gradually took a political turn, posing a direct challenge
to the junta's dictatorial rule.

"Neither of them [Tun Naing and Chan Zaw Myo] are involved in politics. We
saw Chan Zaw Myo being released. But Tun Naing, continues to be detained
on the accusation that he knows of the escape of Zarni," a local resident
told Mizzima.

"Zarni has been accused of playing a key role in the recent protests and
authorities are in hot pursuit of him now. We even heard concerned
officials have been warned that they will be stripped off their position
if they cannot arrest Zarni," added the locals.

____________________________________

October 23, Independent Mon News Agency
Moulmein residents worried about monks

Moulmein city residents from Mon state, Burma are anxious about monks who
were sent back to their home towns in upper Burma because they did not
reach home but were detained by the military junta authorities.

A rumour is doing the rounds that about 200 monks from Moulmein were
arrested in Thaton after they were ordered to go home following last
months protest.

"But nobody confirmed the arrests. They just heard that the monks were
arrested," an abbot in Moulmein said.

The 200 monks were sent by trains with travel documents from the Military
Southeast Command based in Moulmein . The command also arranged for two
rooms for the monks.

The monks are from Shin Phuu monastery and Ye monastery in Moulmein.

Monks from all monasteries in Moulmein were ordered to go home after they
protested against military regime for four days last month.

Almost all the monasteries the capital Mon state were investigated by the
authorities for their involvement in the protest.

 According to traveller many monks who traveling by bus and train were
dragged down and arrested in Thaton

____________________________________

October 23, International Herald Tribute
Burmese monks are shown the limits of their moral authority - Choe Sang-Hun

Mandalay, Myanmar: As the lunchtime gong chimed through a tree-shaded
monastery, several hundred monks in burgundy robes lined up, all holding
alms bowls.

It is a common scene in Myanmar, where 1 out of every 100 people, many of
them still children, are monks. But the lunch line at the Mahagandhayon
Monastery here, the country's largest, used to be much longer.

"We usually have 1,400 monks here," said a bespectacled senior monk.
"Because of the situation, parents took 1,000 of them home."

For decades, two powerful institutions have shaped Burmese life: the
500,000-member Buddhist clergy, which commands a moral authority over the
population, and Senior General Than Shwe's junta, whose 450,000-strong
military keeps the population in check with intimidation.

Their uneasy coexistence shattered last month. After scattered protests
erupted against sharp fuel price increases in August, thousands of monks
took to the streets to protest the junta's economic mismanagement and
political repression, and the military responded with batons and bullets.

The guns have prevailed over mantras, at least for now.

As of Oct. 6, the government said it had detained 533 monks, of whom 398
were released after sorting out what it called "real monks" from "bogus
ones." Four monks suspected of instigating the demonstrations were still
being sought. Monks and dissidents contend that a much higher number were
detained.

"They had the monks kneel down, with their hands on the back of their
heads," said the deputy head of a monastery in Yangon, the country's
largest city. "Anyone who raised his head was beaten."

He said that at Ngwe Kyayan, the largest monastery in Yangon, soldiers
took away food and donation boxes, and even beat the abbot and vandalized
images of the Buddha, as some of its 300 monks fought back.

He said the monks had been demonstrating to protest the economic
deprivation of ordinary Burmese. "It's a terrible situation," he said.
"Monks took to the streets to draw attention to this problem, pleading for
loving kindness. But our government is worse than Hitler's Nazis. They
have no respect for religion. I wonder how long it will take to heal this
wound."

When it was all over, The New Light of Myanmar, a government-run
English-language newspaper, said this month, "monks had been defrocked
during interrogation," so they could be questioned as ordinary lay people,
and then "ordained and sent back to their monasteries." In interviews,
monks denounced this process, saying the military had no authority to
defrock or ordain monks.

The junta also employed divide-and-rule tactics, by persuading the
state-sanctioned Sangha Maha Nayaka Committee, which oversees the Buddhist
clergy here, to accept its donations and to order monks to stop protesting
or face punishment.

"Some of these senior monks are bribed by the regime," said an editor at a
Yangon magazine. "They have accepted so many good things in life - cars,
televisions, big houses, telephones and mobile phones - that they simply
have to listen to the regime."

At the Mahagandhayon Monastery here in Mandalay, soldiers had pulled back
after cordoning off the temple for weeks. But their trucks continued to
lurk in back alleys near the compound, as rumors circulated that if the
monks rose up again, it would probably be in this city, the nation's
second-largest. About 20,000 of its million residents are monks, one of
the highest concentrations in the country.

Young men from across the country come here to train as monks, and they
have grown increasingly passionate about the poverty and injustice their
nation has suffered under the military government.

The fear was still palpable at Mahagandhayon, where monks chanted mantras
over their last meal of the day, a late-morning lunch of vegetable soup,
eggplant, rice and a special treat from a donor - instant noodles. But the
monks were clearly still reluctant to discuss the military's crushing of
the demonstrations less than a month ago.

"They are afraid of guns," the bespectacled senior monk said, making a
shooting gesture, before vanishing into the dining hall.

Long before the protests erupted, monks were keenly aware of people's
suffering. When they went out to receive alms, said the senior monk in
Yangon, they saw "no happiness in people's faces, people whose minds are
preoccupied with finding food and surviving one day at a time."

But the military's use of force against the monks has unsettled
fundamental Burmese values.

"To Burmese, monks are like sons of the Buddha," said Maung Aye, a taxi
driver, as he drove around Yangon's 2,000-year-old Sule Pagoda, which is
said to enshrine a hair of the Buddha and was a focal point of the
protests and their suppression last month.

One man, a 37-year-old shop owner in Yangon, said his 5-year-old son, who
like most Burmese children has been raised with Buddhist beliefs in karma,
had cried out: "I don't want to become a soldier. If I have to kill a
monk, the worst thing will happen to me in my next life."

At a Yangon temple, sitting before a golden Buddha figure encircled by
blinking electric lights, two middle-aged monks spoke with resignation and
anger.

"We learned a lesson from 1988," one monk said, referring to the
large-scale pro-democracy uprising that the military put down, leaving
hundreds, perhaps thousands, dead. "If it changes nothing and only gets
worse, why risk our lives? Why try, if nothing happens?"

The other monk said: "We would like to love our government. We tried but
couldn't. We want to like to go out and demonstrate again, but we know
they are out there with their guns."

The Buddhist Lent, which lasts three months, into late October, is a time
when monks focus on studying scriptures and refrain from leaving their
monasteries, except for early-morning outings to collect alms. The fact
that monks ventured out in protest during this period was widely seen here
as a sign of just how angry they were. But now many monasteries in Yangon
are deserted, after raids by the military drove thousands of monks to
flee.

In towns across Myanmar, dawn has traditionally seen the ritual of monks
filing down streets seeking alms and lay people gaining merit by donating
rice and other food. Families take pride in "adopting" monks, providing
them with food, clothing, books and other goods for a few months or years,
depending on their finances.

As poverty has worsened in Myanmar, however, the alms processions have
increasingly turned into a sad exchange of apologies for having to beg and
for being unable to give. Now, with the monks scattered, the alms lines
have dwindled in big cities like Yangon and Mandalay.

For centuries, whoever seized power in this country sought legitimacy by
lavishing money on pagodas and monasteries. When the democracy leader Aung
San Suu Kyi called for a "second struggle for national independence" in
1988, she chose Yangon's gold-spired Shwedagon Pagoda as the site at which
to deliver her watershed speech.

Thus when monks marched in September to the home where she is kept under
house arrest, the act was a moral reproof to the government.

But the monks themselves are not immune to criticism. Although senior
clerics are elected by monks and revered by lay people, "they form a small
closed society which doesn't know anything about the community at large,"
the magazine editor said. "Some of them do not know how poor people live
in a small village."

One of the many titles the government bestows on the senior monks is
Bhaddanta. Some lay people call these privileged monks "Bhaddanta Toyota"
or "Bhaddanta Toshiba."

Other lay people defended the aging clerics who have taken gifts from the
government. These monks, they said, are under moral obligation to accept
donations, and fear that confrontation could cost more lives.

Still, witnesses reported piles of rice donated by the government but left
uncollected at the gates of some monasteries, a rebuff of the government's
effort to placate the clergy.

Dissidents said many of the monks who led the protests belonged to two
unauthorized organizations: the Young Monks Union of Burma and United
Front of Monks.

At Mahagandhayon in Mandalay, the monks were going about their daily
routine. Droning sounds of scriptures being recited filled the monastery.
Stray dogs, which came to share leftover alms with child beggars, dozed on
the ground.

The senior monk said he hoped that the rest of the students would return
in a month or so. One young monk who had remained through the events of
the past month said: "Please go out and tell the world what really has
happened in this country."

He added, "I am scared just talking to you about this."

____________________________________
ANALYSIS

October 23, Mizzima News
Is Dialogue a game for Generals? - Htet Aung Kyaw

Following the deadly crackdown of the monk-led peaceful demonstrations on
the streets of Rangoon, junta Senior General Than Shwe announced an offer
to hold dialogue with detained opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi. Many
observers and politicians welcomed that as a significant move, even though
they knew well Than Shwe's real attitude for the past two decades. Why?

The statement was announced on October 4th after the General's meeting
with the UN Special Envoy for Burma, Ibrahim Gambari, at the isolated
jungle outpost of Naypyitaw. Moreover, Than Shwe also appointed a deputy
labor minister, Aung Kyi, to be a "go-between-person" with Aung San Suu
Kyi.

Unusual statements came out just before the United Nations Security
Council meeting in New York, where world leaders gathered to listen to Mr.
Gambari's briefing on his trip to Burma. After a week-long debate, the
Security Council adopted a presidential statement, reading in part that
the Council "strongly deplores the use of violence against peaceful
demonstrations in Myanmar" and "emphasizes the importance of the early
release of all political prisoners and remaining detainees." The body also
welcomed the appointment of a liaison officer and the calling for
cooperation between the Burmese government and all other parties to defuse
the current situation and find a peaceful solution.

However, the junta rejected the Security Council's demand, saying on
October 12th that they will forge ahead with their own road map. The
junta's statement, it's third, read: "It is regrettable the United Nations
Security Council's Presidential Statement. The Presidential Statement of
the Security Council should be in line with the desire of the entire
people of the Union of Myanmar. Nonetheless, the Government of the Union
of Myanmar together with the people will remain resolved to continue its
implementation of the Seven-Step Road Map".

Beyond these three statements on politics to the global media, there is no
reason to see real progress in Burma. "We have heard of the new Relations
Minister only from the media and we do not know any more, no official has
contacted us yet," said U Lwin, spokesperson for Aung San Suu Kyi's
National League for Democracy.

"In the past, they (the junta) allowed us to meet Daw Suu before the
process began," he told this correspondent in a telephone interview.

U Lwin was a key person in the previous dialogue process sponsored by
former United Nations special envoy Razali Ismail in 2001.

Even though he was not appointed a Minister for Relations with Aung San
Suu Kyi at the time, U Lwin had good contacts with government officials,
especially senior figures of ousted Prime Minister General Khin Nyunt's
intelligence unit.

"We had arranged for the release of some political prisoners, to reopen
some of our branch offices, and to go on party organization trips to some
parts of country. That is, until the incident of May 30th at Depayin,"
lamented U Lwin.

Since then, Aung San Suu Kyi has been back under house arrest, while all
National League for Democracy branch offices were closed, many activists
re-arrested and no one allowed a meeting with Suu Kyi other than current
United Nations special envoy Gambari, who has met her three times in two
years.

"Everybody knows Than Shwe is not sincere in wanting to talk with Daw
Suu," shouted Colonel Aye Myint, who retired from the Burma Army at the
time of the 88-uprising. "Can you believe the man who commanded to kill
her in Depayin is now saying he wishes to engage in dialogue with her?" he
questioned.

On the other hand, he is thinking a dialogue process could take place at
this time, "This is not because Than Shwe is sincere, but some
pro-democracy commanders push him to do that."

Although it is hard to know what really happens inside the army, some
evidence has emerged that a senior diplomat from the London Embassy
resigned and a Colonel from Dev 99 joined the Karen National Union last
week. These individuals were against the junta shooting monks.

Win Min, a Harvard University researcher for Military and Civilian
Relations agrees with Colonel Aye Myint. "I also heard that some educated
officers want to see change in Burma urgently. Pressure is coming now not
only from the international community but also from inside the military,"
he commented.

"It seems he (Than Shwe) just reacts to pressure, so we need to push for
it to become a real dialogue. If we look back to South Africa's national
reconciliation process, it began from pressure," he pointed out.

Although many Burmese are trying to see the move as a positive sign, a
senior American professor from Rutgers University gives a different view.
"I don't see how any result will come from this move to solve 20-years of
crisis in Burma."

"We all know what has happened in Burma for two decades. The generals are
never honest in wanting to talk with Suu Kyi. So this move is just a game
to buy time, diverting attention from the killing of the monks," the
respected retired professor told this correspondent.

To prove his comment, the generals are now showing their real color as
they continue the crackdown, torturing and killing dozens of activists and
arresting hundreds of activists every night. 88 Generation leader Htay
Kyew and other three others, who had been in hiding, were arrested just
last weekend.

"All monks are hiding and waiting now, to see how much the United Nations
Security Council and Mr. Gambari will do for us," says Ashin U Gamira, a
spokesperson for underground monks and the Alliance of all Burma Buddhist
Monks, which led the recent peaceful protests.

"We want real action from United Nations Security Council, at least to
send monitoring missions to stop the junta's ongoing violence. But now
they give us only words", he added. "If not enough progress comes from the
Security Council and Mr. Gambari's plan, we will have no choice but to
return to the streets until the government changes."

(Htet Aung Kyaw is a senior journalist for Oslo-Based Democratic Voice of
Burma radio and TV station.)

____________________________________
ON THE BORDER

October 23, AsiaNews
Over 20 thousand Christians gather in Manipur to pray for Myanmar -
Nirmala Carvalho

A prayer campaign for freedom and democracy has been launched continuing
to Sunday. Human rights groups are campaigning for India to recognise the
status if Burmese refugees and urging New Dehli to put Human Rights ahead
of commercial interests.

More than 20 thousand Christians in over 100 Churches in the Churachandpur
district and elsewhere in the north eastern state of Manipur, launched a
prayer campiagn for freedom and democracy in Myanmar on October 21st
expressing solidarity with the political prisoners and the democratic
leader Aung San Suu Kyi.

The campaign, organised by the Myanmar Christians Fellowships (Mcf)
comprising Burmese Christians in exile, the campaign will include mass
prayers every Sunday for Burma.

"The aim of this campaign is to pray for peace, restoration of democracy
and for the release of all political prisoners in Burma," Ko Lay, General
Secretary of the MCF said. He added the campaign also prayed for "the
Burmese military generals so that they change their mind and abandon their
evil ways".

Meanwhile Babloo Loitongban, Director of 'Human Rights Alert', in Imphal
(Manipur), revealed to AsiaNews that "Three Burmese nationals from the
Western side of Burma have been detained after the crisis in Burma by the
Indian authorities and they are in custody. We are trying to also give
some legal aid to them; we are also moving court to have them treated as
refugees, as we are doing with other Burmese mainly students. Many union
leaders from Myanmar have taken refuge in Imphal and we are also helping
them". "In western Myanmar, which borders Manipur there were some attempts
to protest against the military junta, but we were informed the number of
protestors were rather few, this is largely due to the fact that in the
border areas like the 'Tamu town' which is predominantly a 'Traders town'
and the people there earn a livelihood by trading with Manipur and the
rest of India, so the protest was not very strong.  ".

The group which organised a protest march in Imphal and a public encounter
in Churachanpur district in solidarity with the people of Burma, "is very
disappointed by the soft response of the Indian Government to this
situation of democratic uprising in Burma" and believes that New Delhi is
far too concerned with access to the nations energetic resources. "India
–he continues– is respected in South East Asia, its is because of the
values that India has stood for in the past, now if India wants to
surrender these Values and become merely trade–oriented, I seriously
foresee that even trade would loose in the long run.   A relationship
between neighbours based on Moral values is extremely important if India
wants to maintain its respectability in South Asia and the international
community at large. Economy and trade relationships should never take
precedence over Human rights and Moral Principles". "Manipur and Burma
share not only a long border but also long history.   Manipur history is
very much tied with the Burmese history and we firmly believe that not
only for Manipur, but for the entire North-East, an open and democratic
society in Burma would serve to empower and develop –politically socially
as well as economically the entire North East region". "International
pressure is important but much more crucial is the response by the
neighbours- big neighbours like India China and Thailand is what is going
to make a major difference in how Burmese military responds", such as
allowing access to the UN Observer and establishing dialogue with Aung San
Suu Kyi.

____________________________________

October 23, Khonumthung News
Christians pray for Burma

Around 400 people from Chin and Mizo Christian communities held a fasting
prayer for peaceful change in Burma in Aizawl, capital of Mizoram state,
northeast India yesterday.

The Christians belonging to 19 churches and fellowships began the prayer
after a brief sermon function held in Lai Christian fellowship in Aizawl
from 8 a.m. to 5 p.m.

The believers (Christians in the prayer function) prayed for the release
of Aung San Suu Kyi and other political prisoners, for the welfare of
immigrant workers and refugees from Burma who fled to neighbouring
countries due to persecution, repression and human right abuses by the
Burmese military regime and for Burmese in third countries.

"God wants the people to solve the problem on the basis of love not by
hatred. We also believe that God can change the attitude of the rulers,"
Rev. Timothy Thian Nun Thang, prayer meeting organizer said explaining the
purpose of the prayers.

"No body can be separated from national affairs and everybody has some
responsibility for his own country since God created the nation," he
added.

People from different walks of life such as politicians, businessmen,
workers, students and religious leaders among others participated in the
prayer meeting.

____________________________________
BUSINESS / TRADE

October 23, Irrawaddy
Tay Za grounded - Wai Moe

Air Bagan, the airline owned by Burmese junta crony Tay Za, has decreased
its flight schedule from daily flights to three days a week on its
Rangoon—Bangkok and Rangoon—Singapore routes.

Air Bagan flies internationally from Rangoon to Bangkok, Singapore,
Kunming and Siem Reap in Cambodia.

When The Irrawaddy called the Air Bagan office in Singapore, its staff
confirmed that its flight schedule from Rangoon to Singapore was every
Sunday, Tuesday and Friday. Staff denied, however, that the schedule had
been reduced, even though Air Bagan states on its website that flights
from Rangoon to Bangkok and Singapore are daily.

A travel agent from Rangoon confirmed that the airline had indeed reduced
the number of international flights in late September.

The agent also confirmed that other Burmese airlines are suffering: Air
Mandalay is unable to guarantee regular flights from Rangoon to Chiang
Mai; and Myanmar Airways International has canceled its international
schedule indefinitely.

However, Air Mandalay denied that their schedule had been disrupted and
claimed that business was running as usual.

Myanmar Airways International confirmed that they had cancelled flights
from Rangoon to Bangkok and Kuala Lumpur; however, due to insurance
concerns the flights to Singapore are being maintained.

A passenger who flew from Rangoon to Bangkok with Air Bagan last week said
that Air Bagan normally accommodated passengers in large airbuses on the
Rangoon—Bangkok flights; however, now small planes were being used due to
a lack of costumers.

Air Bagan is a budget airline—owned by Tay Za, a wealthy businessman and
crony of the Burmese junta —which began operating about three years ago.
The airline had just launched flights to Singapore in September, with a
promotional 14-day return flight between Rangoon and Singapore offered for
US $223, and a 14-day return ticket between Rangoon and Bangkok for just
$129. Its airfares were about $50 cheaper than other airlines.

After the junta’s brutal crackdown on peaceful protesters and monks, the
US imposed further sanctions against the Burmese military government on
September 27 and October 19—including freezing the bank accounts of 25
military officials and 12 close associates of the junta, including that of
Tay Za.

Still in his early 40s, Tay Za has long been associated with back room
dealings. In 1990 he founded Htoo Trading Company, exporting timber and
gaining access over the years to large areas of virgin forest. He
consolidated his relationship with the junta by creating Myanmar Avia
Export, Burma’s sole representative of Russia’s Export Military Industrial
Group, known as MAPO, and of the Russian helicopter company Rostvertol.
Military analysts say he was instrumental in the junta’s purchase of
advanced MiG-29 fighter-bombers and helicopters from Russia.

Tay Za is known to keep his savings in Singapore where he owns luxury
apartments. Analysts say he acts as a business agent for Snr-Gen Than Shwe
and his family.

____________________________________

October 23, Xinhua General News Service
Myanmar postpones holding mid-year gems emporium

Myanmar has postponed the date for holding its mid-year gems emporium,
resetting for Nov. 14 to 26 instead of Nov. 7 to 19 which was announced
earlier, according to an official press the "New Light of Myanmar"
Tuesday.

To encourage national gem traders to sell more quality gems, jade, pearl
and jewelry, the 16th Mid-Year Gems Emporium will take place at the
Myanmar Convention Center on the basis of competitive bidding, the Central
Committee for Holding Myanmar Gems Emporium said.

Mid-year gems emporium is introduced in addition to the annual ones to
boost the country's foreign exchange earning, the authorities said.

In the 44th annual Myanmar gems emporium held in March this year, 3,652
lots of jade, gems and pearl were sold out, gaining 148 million euros (185
million U.S. dollars

That emporium was attended by 3,421 merchants, of whom over 2, 000 are
foreign ones, mostly coming from China and its Hong Kong Special
Administrative Region (SAR) and Thailand.

Again in July this year, a special gem, jade and pearl sale, which
attracted even more merchants, about 4,000 including 2,437 foreigners,
sold out more of the items reaching 4,665 lots but the proceeds were not
disclosed.

Myanmar started to hold gem shows annually in 1964, introducing the
mid-year one in 1992 and the special one in 2004.

Myanmar, a well-known producer of gems in the world, boasts ruby, diamond,
cat's eye, emerald, topaz, pearl, sapphire, coral and a variety of garnet
tinged with yellow.

There are six mining areas in Myanmar under gem and jade exploration,
namely Mogok, Mongshu, Lonkin/Phakant, Khamhti, Moenyin and Namyar.

To develop gem mining industry, Myanmar enacted the New Gemstone Law in
1995, allowing national entrepreneurs to mine, produce, transport and sell
finished gemstone and manufactured jewelry at home and abroad.

According to the state-run Myanmar Gems Enterprise (MGE), of Myanmar's top
10 exporters for 2006-07 which were dominated by the state sector, the MGE
stood the third with a gem sale value of 296. 9 million dollars after
Myanmar Oil and Gas Enterprise and the Myanmar Timber Enterprise.

The government's Central Statistical Organization revealed that in the
first three quarters (April-December) of 2006-07, Myanmar produced 13,732
tons of jade and 14.52 million carats of gems which include ruby,
sapphire, spinel and peridot, as well as 67, 985 mommis pearl.

____________________________________

October 23, Irrawaddy
Burmese products rejected by Swiss, S. African Buyers - Violet Cho

Businesses in Switzerland and South Africa, two countries that have not
officially announced a boycott of Burmese products, are rejecting imports
from Burma according to Burmese industry sources.

Switzerland has returned seafood and fish products, while South Africa has
sent back clothing made in Burma.

Although countries of the European Union tightened trade and investment
sanctions on Burma on October 15 in response to the regime’s September
crackdown on demonstrations, Switzerland is not a member of the EU.

A fishing industry source told The Irrawaddy that seafood was being
returned by Swiss purchasers. The rejected seafood is finding its way onto
Burmese market at greatly reduced prices—“We’ve been eating seafood for
three days now, the children are very happy to be eating prawns and crab,”
said a Rangoon housewife.

Garment factories report that clothing with the label “Made in Myanmar”
has been returned by South African purchasers. At least one factory, in
Rangoon’s Hlaing Tharyar Industrial Zone (2), is in difficulties because
of the boycott.

In their announcement on October 15 of tightened sanctions against Burma,
EU foreign ministers said they would "adopt a package of measures that do
not harm the [Burmese] population but that target those responsible for
the violent crackdown and the overall political stalemate in the country."

The US government has also tightened sanctions following the September
crackdown.

____________________________________

October 23, DPA via www.eux.tv
Danish pension scheme sells assets linked to Myanmar Oil

Denmark's largest pension scheme ATP said Tuesday it would sell its stakes
in companies that have interests Myanmar Oil or cooperate with the
state-owned group.

The ATP board said the decision would mean shedding shares in French oil
and gas giant Total.

The pension scheme has invested some 935 million kroner (177 million
dollars) in Total.

ATP said it would also abide recent European Union sanctions against
imports of timber and valuable metals from military-ruled Myanmar where
peaceful protests were recently put down.

http://www.eux.tv/article.aspx?articleId=16495

____________________________________
HEALTH / AIDS

October 23, Mizzima News
Detained NLD spokesperson's health deteriorates

The health condition of Myint Thein, spokesperson of the National League
for Democracy incarcerated in Insein prison has deteriorated, family
members said.

The Insein prison authorities, however, have denied the presence of Myint
Thein, and refused to accept all medical supplies for the detainee brought
by the family.

"Prison authorities have refused to accept medical supplies for him [Myint
Thein] saying he is not in the jail. But we were told by people who were
recently released from the prison that he [Myint Thein] is being detained
there," a family member told Mizzima.

Myint Thein was arrested along with several other NLD members, monks and
ordinary people on September 27, for taking part in protests against the
regime.

Swe Swe Thein, wife of Myint Thein, told mizzima that the NLD leader has
been suffering from high blood pressure and acute stomach ache and had
been under strict diet avoiding all rich food.

"I am very worried about his health and he needs immediate medical check
up," she added.

According to the NLD, the Burmese authorities have so far arrested at
least 276 of its members across the country in connection with the recent
protests led by Buddhist clergy.

Han Thar Myint, another spokesperson of the NLD, said the junta has to
date released 16 of its members from detention.

____________________________________
REGIONAL

October 23, Mizzima News
Gambari happy with Indian response - Mungpi

The UN Secretary General's special adviser on Burma is 'very satisfied' at
the response of Indian authorities but he urged the largest democracy in
the world to do more to pressurize the Burmese military junta for
political changes.

Ibrahim Gambari during a press conference on Tuesday said that he has
asked Indian authorities to exert pressure on the junta for the immediate
release of political detainees including Daw Aung San Suu Kyi and start a
more broad based dialogue for national reconciliation.

"I believe that India will do whatever it can to encourage the Burmese
government to bring changes in Myanmar [Burma ]," Gambari told reporters.

The Nigerian diplomat said he had a 'good and detailed meeting and
exchange of views' with the Indian Foreign Secretary, Minister of External
Affairs and the Prime Minister of India. He visited Indonesia, Malaysia
and Thailand and he will leave for Beijing tonight. However, no details
were divulged about his meeting.

Mr. Gambari reiterated the need for regional countries to do more on Burma.

"It is up to the countries what policy they want to have on Myanmar [Burma
], but the UN Secretary General's good offices is seeking more results to
be shown in Burma," he said.

While India, a neighbouring country had earlier stated that it wants to
see Burma's political problems resolved peacefully through an inclusive
and broad based dialogue, it avoided harsh criticism against the junta
saying it is engaged in 'non-condemnatory' and 'silent diplomacy'.

The military junta has invited the UN envoy to revisit in mid-November
when he had earlier requested to visit in the first week of November.

Mr. Gambari last visited Burma in late September amidst mounting protests
led by Buddhist monks followed by the brutal crackdown by the junta. He
met junta brass, including Snr. General Than Shwe and visited detained
Burmese democracy icon Daw Aung San Suu Kyi twice.

The regime responded by appointing a liason officer for Senior General
Than Shwe to negotiate with the opposition leader but there has been no
progress so far.

In a follow up action of the UN's initiative to push for changes in Burma,
Gambari is consulting leaders in Thailand, Malyasia, Indonesia, India,
China and Japan on Burma.

____________________________________

October 23, Agence France Presse
Environmental group appeals to China to stop Myanmar dam project

An environmental group appealed Tuesday to the Chinese government and a
number of Chinese enterprises to stop work on a dam project in Myanmar
that threatens to block one of Asia's great river systems.

China Power Investment Corp. and China Southern Power Grid are among the
handful of companies involved in building the Myitsone hydropower plant
across the Irrawady river, the Kachin Development Networking Group said.

"We are approaching the companies and the Chinese government because this
area is very important for our Kachin people," said a group spokesman,
referring to the inhabitants of Kachin state, where the dam is located.

"We're appealing to the Chinese government to stop the dam project," said
the spokesman, who asked not to be identified because of frequent trips to
China.

The group warned in a statement the dam had serious social and
environmental impacts, including the displacement of an estimated 10,000
people.

The Myanmar military junta allows Chinese partners to manage the project
which will eventually transmit electricity to China and potentially
generate more than 500 million dollars in revenue per year.

After an official opening ceremony in May this year, a permanent worker
camp was set up at the site and survey work is ongoing.

Dams in Myanmar, formerly known as Burma, have a poor safety record and
recent breaks in 2006 have led to flood surges which have swept away
houses and bridges, causing fatalities and destroying power stations, the
statement said.

The Irrawaddy dam site is less than 100 kilometres (60 miles) from
Myanmar's earthquake-prone Sagaing fault line.

Dam breakage would be disastrous for Myitkyina, the capital city of Kachin
State, which lies only 40 kilometres downstream, it said.

____________________________________

October 23, The Straits Times (Singapore)
Singapore's arms sales to Myanmar not substantial;
No deals in recent years; weapons sold not suited to counter civilian
unrest; economic links limited, says George Yeo - Goh Chin Lian

Singapore's military sales and economic links with Myanmar were in the
spotlight as MPs yesterday pressed for details and asked for tougher
action, including sanctions against the junta.

But Foreign Minister George Yeo, responding in Parliament, cautioned
against applying more pressure, saying that sanctions or expelling Myanmar
from Asean would make national reconciliation there harder to achieve.

The Myanmar issue dominated the question-and-answer session at
Parliament's sitting, with Mr Yeo responding to questions from seven MPs
and a slew of follow-ups that came thick and fast.

Speaking in calm and measured tones, Mr Yeo told Ms Irene Ng (Tampines
GRC), Nominated MP Siew Kum Hong and Non-Constituency MP Sylvia Lim that
Singapore had few defence interactions with Myanmar.

Links had to be maintained with the military as it was a key institution
there. But these were limited to a multilateral level, such as
international meetings.

And while Singapore's established policy has been not to divulge details
of defence sales, he said that over the years, defence sales to Myanmar
had not been substantial.

These had always 'been carefully limited to items that are not suitable
for countering civilian unrest', he said.

'There have not been any defence sales to Myanmar in recent years and,
going forward, we will continue to behave in a responsible manner.'

There is no arms embargo against Myanmar, but Mr Yeo said Singapore would
comply should there be one sanctioned by the United Nations.

There was also 'no truth' to claims that Singapore helped set up a
listening facility to monitor civil dissidents.

The Government had replied to The Age newspaper, and made repeated
clarifications to Australian newspapers, but these were ignored.

Economic links with Myanmar were also limited. Trade last year amounted to
$1 billion, or 0.1 per cent of Singapore's total trade.

Myanmar was 50th among trading partners, and cumulative total direct
investments by Singapore firms at the end of 2005 was just $742 million.

'Our policy on Myanmar does not hinge on this,' he said, referring to
trade and economic links. 'Instead, our actions are guided by what is best
for the long-term interests of Asean.'

Mr Yeo also reminded the House that the Monetary Authority of Singapore
operated a strict regime against money laundering and procedures were in
place to deal with suspicious transactions.

Regional and global attention has focused on developments in Myanmar after
the junta's recent crackdown on peaceful demonstrators and MPs wanted to
how Singapore and Asean were responding.

His key point to MPs on dealing with the Myanmar situation was to
underscore the importance of staying engaged - even as Singapore and Asean
register their strong concerns to the government.

The priority must be to support UN special envoy Ibrahim Gambari's
efforts, and 'it is important that whatever actions we take strengthen his
hand and not make his already complicated task more difficult', he said.

Cutting links with Myanmar would only give short-term satisfaction.

'If we in Asean boycott Myanmar, we would lose our moral influence which
is not insignificant. Such an approach would only worsen the long-term
position for us,' he said.

'In any case, the preference of all the Asean countries is to continue to
engage Myanmar, and keeping it in the family. This is certainly
Singapore's position.'

chinlian at sph.com.sg

____________________________________
INTERNATIONAL

October 23, Agence France Presse
UN says Myanmar agrees to rights visit

The ruling generals in Myanmar have agreed to the first visit by the UN's
top human rights official in four years, the United Nations said on
Monday.

The announcement comes in the aftermath of a violent crackdown on
pro-democracy protesters that left at least 13 people dead and intensified
international criticism of the military junta.

The junta agreed to a visit by Paulo Sergio Pinheiro, the UN special
rapporteur on human rights, and suggested that it take place before a
regional summit in Singapore next month, UN spokeswoman Michele Montas
said.

The UN's top envoy on Myanmar, Ibrahim Gambari, is also scheduled for a
return visit to the country next month amid a flurry of diplomatic efforts
to put pressure on the junta.

Myanmar, formerly known as Burma, has been in the international spotlight
since pro-democracy protests spearheaded by the country's revered Buddhist
monks were put down by the regime.

Nearly 3,000 people were rounded up and detained -- many of them monks --
and at least 13 people were killed. The military, which has run the
country with an iron fist since 1962, has repeatedly quashed any shows of
dissent.

Pinheiro has not been allowed to visit the country since 2003. The UN
spokeswoman said Myanmar had suggested that he come before November's
summit of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN).

Myanmar's Foreign Minister Nyan Win confirmed the offer in a letter to UN
Secretary General Ban Ki-moon on Friday, she said.

In an appearance at the United Nations in New York earlier this month, the
foreign minister blamed the bloodshed in his country on "political
opportunists" backed by "powerful countries."

Protests with only a small number of demonstrators erupted in August when
the regime doubled the price of fuel overnight, leaving many people in the
impoverished nation unable even to afford transport to get to work.

The fuel price protests mushroomed into mass demonstrations against the
regime after the monks took up the cause. In the last two or three days
before they were quashed, the marches drew an estimated 100,000 people to
the streets.

The demonstrations were the biggest challenge to the regime in 20 years.

Their suppression has unleashed a wave of international criticism and
sanctions against the regime, which has kept opposition leader and Nobel
Prize winner Aung San Suu Kyi under house arrest for most of the last 18
years.

The junta has repeatedly insisted it will act on its "road map" for
democracy, but international critics have called the process a sham.

Aung San Suu Kyi's National League for Democracy (NLD), which won
elections in 1990 but was never allowed to govern, said it welcomed
Pinheiro's visit.

"We hope to meet him," NLD spokesman Han Thar Myint told AFP in Myanmar.

Meanwhile Gambari, the UN envoy on Myanmar who visited the country last
month to express outrage over the crackdown, is also expecting to return
in November.

The US ambassador to the United Nations, Zalmay Khalilzad, told reporters
Monday that Washington was working with the UN, China, India, ASEAN and
European allies to Gambari back into the country as soon as possible.

"It's urgent that Mr Gambari be allowed to come into Burma, to facilitate
in the reconciliation that is necessary and in the transition to a new
order that's necessary for Burma (Myanmar) to become a normal state," he
said.

____________________________________

October 23, New Zealand Herald
Michael Richardson: China's priority for Myanmar is stability rather than
reform

Will China do in Myanmar what it did this year in Sudan - send a special
envoy to ease political tension in the country after calls by
international activists to boycott the summer Olympics in Beijing next
year?

Or will it heed a call last week from Thai Prime Minister Surayud
Chulanont to join and perhaps chair a regional forum on Myanmar that would
include Southeast Asian nations as well as India and Japan?

The proposal for a forum appears to be similar to the format of the
six-party talks set up to persuade North Korea to abandon its nuclear
ambitions. China hosts these negotiations. Other participants include the
two Koreas, Japan, Russia and the United States.

While the talks focus on the nuclear issue, they also deal with North
Korea's political and economic relations with the outside world. Of all
Myanmar's immediate neighbours, China has the most influence with the
military regime. Beijing is in a similar position in Sudan and North
Korea.

Hopes for a more activist approach by China towards Myanmar have been
raised by the Chinese decision to support a United Nations Security
Council statement last week strongly deploring the Burmese regime's
violent crackdown on peaceful demonstrators last month and calling for
political dialogue.

Although Beijing insisted on watering down the UN statement before the
final version was agreed, it was the first time the Security Council had
taken official action on Myanmar. It also marked a shift of position by
China, which had previously used its veto to shield the Burmese junta from
harsh criticism, as well as sanctions sought by the West.

After the Security Council meeting, Ibrahim Gambari, the UN envoy to
Burma, is visiting Southeast Asian countries, Japan, India and China to
try forge a regional consensus on how to deal with the junta. He hopes to
return to Myanmar this month or in November to continue the UN effort to
start substantive negotiations between the military government and
opposition groups.

However, Beijing's priority in Myanmar is stability, not political reform
leading to democratic rule. As China seeks international status as a
rising but responsible global power, it has been embarrassed by its close
association with the Burmese regime, as it has by links to three other
pariah states - North Korea, Sudan and Zimbabwe.

But the consistent Chinese line has been that resolving internal political
problems is up to locals, not outsiders. China and Burma grew close in the
early 1990s, when both were shunned by the West for crushing pro-democracy
protests; in 1988 in Burma and in 1989 in China. Since then, China has
become a leading arms supplier, trade partner and investor in Myanmar with
increasingly important strategic and energy interests in the country.

As China's long-standing ally, Pakistan, struggles to contain Islamic
extremism and political unrest, Myanmar has become the most promising
gateway to the Indian Ocean for the land-locked western areas of China.

Not long before the pro-democracy protests were crushed in Myanmar, the
junta declared its intent to sell a huge amount of natural gas to China
from two offshore fields, even though they have been developed by Indian
and South Korean firms.

This supply of gas is the key to China's plan for an energy and transport
corridor linking Kunming, capital of southwestern Yunnan province, to the
Bay of Bengal and Indian Ocean through Myanmar territory. Stretching for
nearly 2000km inside Myanmar, the corridor would include oil and gas
pipelines running alongside a highway to deepwater terminals and ports on
the coast.

The gas would come from Myanmar and most of the oil would be shipped in
from the Middle East and Africa, enabling China to reduce its dependence
on Southeast Asian straits for its vital supplies of imported oil.

As ties with Myanmar are tightened in this way, it would be unrealistic to
expect Beijing to displace the regime that is serving as guarantor of
China's access to the Indian Ocean.

* The writer, a former Asia editor of the International Herald Tribune, is
a security specialist at the Institute of SouthEast Asian Studies in
Singapore.

____________________________________

October 23, International Trade Unions Confederation and International
Federation for Human Rights
Preliminary Key Findings of a Joint FIDH-ITUC Mission on Burma

Illustration de l´article Paris-Brussels: After the September crackdown on
peaceful protests in Burma, the International Trade Unions Confederation
(ITUC) and the International Federation for Human Rights (FIDH) decided to
send a joint international fact-finding mission on the Thai border with
Burma to collect first-hand information on the wave of repression. The
objective was also to discuss with Burmese pro-democracy and human rights
groups about possible international strategies to contribute to the
democratization of the country.

The mission, composed of four members from Australia, Belgium, and
Thailand, stayed in Bangkok and on the Thai-Burma border from October 13
to 21. The mission did not travel to Rangoon or central Burma as the risks
involved for the people interviewed would have been too high.

“We interviewed 13 persons who participated in the protests in Burma and
subsequently had to flee to Thailand. They could not live safely anymore
in Burma as they had been followed, their homes raided, and their pictures
distributed”, said Alison Tate, mission delegate representing ITUC.

“While no accurate and verifiable number of deaths or wounded can be given
at this stage, we can assert that the repression was brutal and
systematic. Most of the participants witnessed people being shot dead, as
well as persons beaten to death”, said Gaëtan Vanloqueren, FIDH mission
member and Actions Birmanie spokesperson. It is the first time that the
monks have been a direct target of repression. “Arrests are still taking
place. The regime is now taking family members in hostage when the
searched persons are not at home. SPDC is conducting widespread arbitrary
arrests in Rangoon and elsewhere”, he added.

People and organisations met by the FIDH/ITUC mission believe that the
SPDC is not genuinely committed to a process of political dialogue. “The
regime is trying to save time in order for the media attention to phase
down. This is the stalling tactics the regime has played over the years.
Than Shwe’s proposal came with unacceptable preconditions placed on Aung
San Suu Kyi at a time when large-scale arrests and other repressive
measures are still on-going”, said Olivier De Schutter, Secretary General
of FIDH. All organizations mentioned that the top priority for a genuine
dialogue is the release of all political prisoners, including Daw Aung San
Suu Kyi and Ko Ming Ko Naing. Gambari’s mission cannot be a success
without increased pressure from the international community “The
international community must establish benchmarks and a timeframe for the
coming year, and assess progress every month” said Guy Ryder, General
Secretary of the ITUC.

“Negative signals to the SPDC need to be combined with signs of
encouragement to the Burmese people” added the mission delegates
Vanloqueren and Tate. All organizations from the Burmese democratic
movement in exile repeated their call for immediate sanctions on trade and
investment in the three ’milkcow’ economic sectors that provide vital
support to the military regime (oil and gas, timber and mining, including
gems and minerals). While Burma saw a 2000% increase in FDI between 1995
and 2005, 95% of the population lives with less than 1$ day, and 90% with
less than 0.65$ a day. “Sanctions hurt the regime and the crony elite, not
the people, living from agriculture or the informal economy” mission
delegates were told many times. Economic sanctions from the EU, whilst not
as impactful as a freezing of Burma-China or Burma-ASEAN trade, are seen
by Burmese democrats as a moral issue and a positive signal to the people
living inside Burma.

The organisations met by the mission also discuss and consider ways to
bring the SPDC generals to account for the crimes they committed. Most
interviewed persons thought increased pressure would help, not hurt the
existing possibilities of political dialogue. The root causes of the
protests have not been addressed. The fuel price rise, the widespread
violations of economic and social rights as well as the severe
restrictions on civil liberties, the lack of rule of law and the impunity
of the authorities are fueling the desire for change more than ever.

If “this is not over”, as told by a Burmese resident who participated the
protests, there is an urgent need for the international community to seize
the opportunity As noted by Daw Aung San Suu Kyi, “Dictatorships are not
eternal”. She also said, “Please use your liberty to promote ours”. More
than ever, these two quotes need to be read together: third countries can
play a role to accelerate the transition towards democracy.

Availability for interviews :

Olivier De Schutter : +32 (0) 2.640.42.95
Gaëtan Vanloqueren : +32 (0) 472.331.771
ITUC – Mathieu Debroux : + 32 (0) 476 621 018

____________________________________
OPINION / OTHER

October 23, South China Morning Post
A Buddhist solution for Myanmar's woes? - James Rose

Buddhist monks and nuns are by and large pretty special people. Perhaps
they don't get enough credit for being a political force, especially in
certain parts of Asia. In Myanmar, Buddhist monks and nuns have been at
the forefront of what might be a significant moment in the history of
their country, the region and the world.

The timing of the latest rallies for democracy was significant and seems
chosen specifically. This is no robed rabble. This is smart politics. The
last time there was serious pro-democracy action in Myanmar was in 1988.
Today, similar hopes are once again in the air. The Myanmese religious
leaders must have based their hopes, at least in part, on successful
Buddhist involvement in political affairs across the border in Thailand
last year. As the followers of the Santi Asoke Buddhist sect gathered in
central Bangkok, set up camp and generated nightly protest rallies last
year, it was clear that the government of prime minister Thaksin
Shinawatra was in serious trouble. It was, and Thaksin remains an exile in
London.

Buddhist activists have had significant political impacts in Laos,
Cambodia and Vietnam over the decades. Who can forget the self-immolation
of the monk Thich Quang Duc, protesting against the repression of the
pro-US Vietnamese regime of Ngo Dinh Diem in 1963? The Dalai Lama's rise
as a global spiritual leader has done no disfavours for Buddhism
generally. His efforts mobilised political action in Tibet and globally.

In most cases, however, while the involvement of revolutionary Buddhist
leaders may presage regime change, they generally file back to their
temples in the aftermath. Buddhist involvement appears not to influence
the incoming secular leadership nor society's emerging political shape.

In Thailand last year, for example, Santi Asoke sought to undermine
rampant materialism, which it said was killing Thailand. This agenda has
been largely ignored since Thaksin left.

As for Myanmar, if the recent protests are revived, and succeed, then what
will replace the junta? Democracy leader Aung San Suu Kyi has many
credentials, but it is questionable whether Myanmar could establish a
democratic system quickly. And, so, we look to the Buddhists: could they
devise a system for Myanmar that would cover at least an interim stage?

As persecuted monks cross into Thailand, there is news of another, more
focused, campaign to be undertaken by Myanmar's monks. In turn, there may
be other outbreaks in such places as Tibet and perhaps Thailand, as
Buddhist leaders there reassess their success in encouraging a more
selfless political society.

What shape might a Buddhist-based regime take? Nominally Buddhist rule in
Tibet for centuries remained largely feudal until Beijing imposed its own
form of secular dictatorship. Few other examples are known. It remains to
be seen, then, whether the rest of the world is as time-sensitive and as
smart as Myanmar's Buddhists.

James Rose was an adviser to a UN special ambassador working in the area
of humanitarian relief

____________________________________

October 23, Asia Times
ASEAN key to Myanmar change - Michael Vatikiotis

The announcement of a constitutional drafting committee in Myanmar may
look like another step along the military junta’s seven-step road map to
such a goal, but in fact it is more bad news for the international
community’s determined effort to encourage a peaceful political transition
to democracy there.

The appointment of the 54-member committee appears to close off the
possibility of making the process more inclusive, and denies the fledging
dialogue process between the junta and opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi
of a major area of compromise.

The junta appears to be doing just what everyone feared: closing ranks and
resisting pressure to make concessions to the domestic opposition and
concerned members of the international community. This makes it all the
more important for Myanmar’s neighbors, big and small, to agree on a
strategy involving political and economic aid and assistance.

The military regime may now be talking to United Nations envoy Ibrahim
Gambari, but the absence of regional accord on the way forward ensures
that Myanmar’s generals can play divide and rule, however loud the calls
for change, however strong the threat of sanctions.

There have been calls for Myanmar’s powerful neighbors China and India to
take the lead, but a paucity of constructive advice about how to change
the status quo. One idea gaining currency is a core group based on the
permanent five members of the United Nations Security Council, plus
Norway, Japan and Singapore, the latter as the 10-member Association of
Southeast Asian Nations’ (ASEAN) standing chairman.

While such a configuration may send the right message in terms of global
concern, it may be the wrong way to persuade China and India to change
their views as it smacks of great power arm-twisting. Myanmar’s military
rulers will also be able to spout the usual rhetoric of neo-colonial
conspiracy.

Far more effective would be a core group or mechanism anchored in the
region, rather than in New York. China in particular needs cover from
regional neighbors before breaking with its long and now outdated
tradition of non-interference in other countries' internal affairs.
Therefore support from ASEAN, of which Myanmar is a member, is critical.

If ASEAN can agree to support a peaceful transition, with appropriate
measures of carrots and sticks, there is no question that major powers
like India, China and Japan, upon which the Myanmar authorities depend for
vital trade and aid, will have to follow. The question is how? ASEAN's
track record on Myanmar isn’t all that consistent. For years since
admitting Myanmar as a member in 1997, the regional grouping has made
ineffectual attempts to influence the regime and never quite able to
confront the repression and isolation that has kept the country one of the
poorest in the region, with close to 60% of the population living on an
average income below US$400 a year.

The screw started to turn after the latest outburst of protest and the
brutal crackdown that followed. Singapore, the current chairman of ASEAN,
wrote to the government expressing the group’s "revulsion" at the violent
repression of demonstrators. There followed a chorus of disapproving
comments from other ASEAN capitals.

But alas, almost a month after the crackdown began, no one can agree on a
plan. And time is running out. Once ASEAN heads of government gather in
Singapore for a summit towards the end of November, if nothing concrete is
proposed, the generals in Myanmar will correctly conclude that they have
once again been given a pass.

Most ASEAN leaders have expressed full and unqualified support for
Gambari’s mediating mission in Myanmar. But they should go further and
seek high-level consultation with China and India. Such a move would
indicate an emerging regional consensus for political reconciliation and
transition in Myanmar and further strengthen Gambari’s hand.

Next, ASEAN and China should agree on a mechanism to facilitate aid and
assistance to Myanmar. For all of its strategic clout, China will not want
to take the lead. Such a working group might be composed of ASEAN's
immediate past chairman (the Philippines), the current chairman
(Singapore) and the incoming chair (Thailand) as well as China and
possibly India. Indonesia will ask for a role and should be given one in
the form of a high-profile convenor or envoy to lead this group, which
might be dubbed "Friends of Myanmar".

Something like the Six Party Talks framework pioneered by China in a bid
to end the nuclear crisis in North Korea likewise has some resonance in
the case of Myanmar. Pyongyang's stubborn recalcitrance was broken only by
China’s intervention, yet China managed to find a mechanism that made this
intervention seem benign and mutually beneficial for all the parties. A
mechanism like this for another neighboring state, Myanmar, could be
convened swiftly once China in particular gives a green light.

Once established, the working group could be placed at the disposal of the
United Nations and support internal dialogue brokered by Gambari. It is
not enough for ASEAN to simply support Gambari’s mission with words; there
must be action and a plan to contribute aid, investment and technical
assistance to help the Myanmar people achieve comparable levels of
prosperity in the region.

As usual, however, ASEAN is divided. Malaysia’s Foreign Minister Syed
Hamid Albar, perhaps still smarting from his own rude rebuff at the hands
of the Myanmar junta last year, sees no need for ASEAN's active
involvement. Thailand, rather positively, is in favor of a working group
mechanism. Indonesia, unhelpfully, appears to place trust in its own ties
to the junta in a vain hope that Myanmar’s generals will follow the
example of Indonesia’s generals a decade ago and go quietly into political
retirement.

There is an urgent need for ASEAN to end its disagreements and dithering,
and work as one with China to shape a regional consensus. Myanmar has made
it known that it will only speak to Gambari, so he must go with the full
backing of the region. Other major powers may want a role, but experience
suggests that interventionist diplomacy is best managed within the region.

In the 1980s, ASEAN broke all of its rules and backed a mechanism for
bringing the warring Cambodian factions to the table. True, the parties to
this conflict were exhausted, weak and divided; Myanmar's generals remain
defiant and have all the guns. But the outcome is what counts. Cambodia
was subjected to more than a decade of interference and intervention; it
has emerged a strong, sovereign state. Its democracy may be imperfect, but
a robust civil society keeps its strong leadership playing by basic
democratic rules.

No one in ASEAN wants to see Myanmar destabilized, but ASEAN in concert
with China must send a strong signal of concern about the constitutional
road map since it is now becoming clear that there is no willingness to
include the opposition in the process and there is no intention to start a
real dialogue with Aung San Suu Kyi. Constructive change and stability
will only flow from a more inclusive political process, and only Myanmar’s
regional friends and neighbors can effectively deliver this message.

Michael Vatikiotis is regional director for Asia of the Center for
Humanitarian Dialog, based in Singapore.

____________________________________
PRESS RELEASE

October 23, Burma Campaign UK
DFID defies MPs on Burma aid – no support for democracy or cross-border aid

DFID takes no action on any key recommendations by Parliamentary Committee.

The Burma Campaign UK today expressed its shock and disappointment at the
Department for International Development’s response to an inquiry into UK
aid to Burma by the International Development Committee. DFID has not
taken action on any of the key recommendations made by the Committee.

The MPs’ report called for a fundamental change in DFID’s Burma aid
policy, including:

* A quadrupling of aid to Burma by 2013, taking aid from £8.8m to £35.3m a
year.
* Providing cross-border aid in addition to in-country aid, to ensure aid
reaches internally displaced people who cannot be reached through
in-country mechanisms because of restrictions imposed by the regime.
* Funding projects promoting human rights and democracy, including exile
based Burmese women’s groups and the trade union movement.
* Setting up alternative mechanisms to provide funding for HIV/AIDS,
malaria and TB in parts of the country that the 3D fund can’t reach
because of restrictions by the regime.

“DFID’s response is disgraceful and inexplicable,” said Mark Farmaner,
Acting Director of the Burma Campaign UK. “They have not changed their
position on any key issues, no commitment on increasing aid, no
cross-border aid, and no funding for pro-democracy work. They are ignoring
the democratic process in the UK, and refusing to fund pro-democracy work
for Burma.”

Despite already knowing what its budget for the next three years will be,
following the Comprehensive Spending Review earlier this year, DFID has
made no commitment to quadruple aid, as MPs requested. It has only said it
is ‘considering’ increasing aid.

The regime will not let the UN or other aid agencies deliver aid to large
parts of Burma, mainly ethnic areas in the east and north of the country.
The people in these areas are among the poorest and most vulnerable in the
country. Millions of people could be reached by cross-border aid from
neighbouring countries, but DFID refuses to fund this kind of aid.

DFID uses figures that downplay the number of people that can be reached
by cross border aid, as it only counts Internally Displaced People (IDPs),
not everyone in need of assistance. For months now DFID has tried to
deflect criticism by saying it is waiting for the outcome of a UN study
into the humanitarian needs. However, DFID did not need a lengthy study
before its recent announcement of a £1 million increase in in-country aid
following the crackdown. While DFID dithers, people are dying from
preventable diseases every day. These lives could be saved by UK aid.

With tight restrictions inside the country, organisations and projects
promoting human rights and democracy have to be based in exile, and work
through underground networks in Burma. Despite the International
Development Committee reccomending funding for these organisations, DFID
is still refusing to fund such projects. Many of these organisations
played a crucial role in getting news and images out of Burma during the
recent protests and crackdown.

“This is not joined up government,” said Mark Farmaner. “The government
isn’t putting its money where its mouth is. The Prime Minister and Foreign
Secretary have been leading the international community in supporting
Burma’s democrats, but DFID seems to be going in a different direction,
only prepared to deliver aid to people and projects that the Burmese
dictatorship agrees to.”

For more information contact Mark Farmaner, Acting Director, on 02073244713.