BurmaNet News, December 29-31, 2007

[Editor]

December 29-31, 2007 Issue # 3370

INSIDE BURMA
Meri News: Monks exhorted to relaunch stir against Myanmar junta
DVB: Government seizes farmland from locals
DVB: Missionaries give Christmas donation to prison inmates
Mizzima News: Thelaythee on Asia tour

ON THE BORDER
JP: Myanmar reports bird flu outbreak in chickens near Myanmar-Thai border
town
Khonumthung News: Bangladesh authorities arrest 14 Chins from Burma

DRUG
Narinjara News: Burmese man arrested in Bangladesh with 800 Yaba tablets

BUSINESS / TRADE
AFP via thepeninsulaqatar.com: Myanmar's economy fuels fears of unrest
DVB: State cooperatives evict local businesses
Ame Info: Airways out of Myanmar

REGIONAL
The Nation: Press freedom in Southeast Asia deteriorates - Seapa
Wall Street Journal Online: China: New Dam Builder for the World - Shai Oster
Washington Post: India's halt to Burma arms sales may pressure Junta

INTERNATIONAL
BBC Burmese Service: Rome shows support to Daw Aung San Suu Kyi
The Asia Age: Global gas lines remain pipedream
Billings Gazette: Wyoming ministry comes to aid of young Myanmar girl

OPINION / OTHER
Burma Digest: U Gambira of Saffron Revolution: Burma’s Person of the Year
Mizzima News: Burma Military Institution: Turning into a major power
equation of National Reconciliation - Nyo Ohn Myint
Mizzima News: After Killings of the Burmese Monks; The Writing is on the
Wall - May Ng

____________________________________
INSIDE BURMA

December 29, Meri News
Monks exhorted to relaunch stir against Myanmar junta - Kumar Sarkar

In the aftermath of the bloody 'Saffron Revolution' in September there is
fresh unrest among the Buddhist clergy in Myanmar. Posters have begun to
appear in central Myanmar exhorting monks to rise in revolt once again
against the military regime.

THE MONKS in Myanmar are restive and plans are afoot to restart protest
movements similar to September, which has been dubbed the 'Saffron
Revolution'

Posters have begun to appear exhorting the Buddhist clergy to once again
hit the streets of Myanmar on the country's Independence Day. Posters have
been seen pasted in Pakhokku town in central Myanmar, the Myanmarese media
in exile reports.

The posters have exhorted monks to stage a mass rally of monks on the 60th
anniversary of Myanmar's Independence Day on January 4, 2008. The posters
were found pasted on the northern gate of the Mahawihzayarrama monastery,
also known as the East monastery, in Pakhokku, a town in Magwe Division
where the uprising first took place in September and snowballed across
Myanmar. The police hurriedly removed the posters.

In September this year the monks took over the protests from the
1988-generation students and were joined by the people, first demanding a
roll back in the hike in fuel prices and essential commodities and then
demanding change from military rule to democracy in a country plagued by
economic and political deterioration.

The Myanmar military junta came down heavily on the protesting monks'
students and the people killing, beating and arresting large numbers.
Though it officially claimed that 10 people died and 3,000 were arrested,
human rights activists have gone on record as saying that the numbers were
far higher. There has been international condemnation of the high handed
and ruthless suppression of the peaceful movement by the Myanmar military
junta.

What followed was worse for monks. Many were disrobed forcibly. The
younger monks and novices were rounded up and sent back to their
hometowns. Those detained were tortured and monasteries taken over. Monks
all over Myanmar except those on the side of the ruling regime were
publicly humiliated making a mockery of the Buddhist clergy who are held
in highest esteem in Buddhist dominated Myanmar. The generals gave the lie
to being Buddhists and scorning the clergy.

Now only one-third of the monks are visible in Pakhokku town after the
regime drove away many monks and novices to their hometowns.

Monks in Pakhokku have boycotted the monks' examination being conducted by
the junta administration to protest against the treatment of the monks by
the junta during the protests and after.

http://www.merinews.com/catFull.jsp?articleID=128911

____________________________________

December 31, Democratic Voice of Burma
Government seizes farmland from locals

The Burmese government has seized over 1000 acres of privately-owned
farmlands near Meikhtila airbase for an upcoming factory project,
according to locals.

On 27 October, Meikhtila military airbase authorities summoned 350 farmers
from 16 villages in the area surrounding the airbase to the village-group
Peace and Development Council and asked them to sign an agreement allowing
the government to seize 1300 acres of their farmlands, a Meikhtila
resident said.

"Villagers who own farmlands in 16 villages from three village-groups were
asked by an air-force officer to sign the agreement which says they
acknowledge the government's seizure of their lands for a future factory
project," said the Meikhtila resident.

"Most of the paddy rice produced in the district comes from these
farmlands. They are vital food sources for all the people in the whole
district."

The airbase authorities reportedly promised the farmers compensation of
twelve times their farm tax rate for the loss of land.

The tax rate for each acre of farm is 1.50 kyat.

____________________________________

December 31, Democratic Voice of Burma
Missionaries give Christmas donation to prison inmates

Christian missionaries in Kalay township, Sagaing division, were given
permission to provide a Christmas meal and donate clothing to inmates in
three local prison camps.

The missionaries had been denied permission to give donations last year,
but were told this year by authorities that they would be able to do so.

The clothing and meat-based meals were provided to inmates in the
Yarsakyo, Mawlike Kalay and 55 Miles work camps.

Kalay township residents said that the living condition for inmates in
prison work camps in the area has been very poor, with prisoners shackled
and given demanding farm work to do with no proper meals.

Death rates among prisoners have been on the rise too, residents said.

____________________________________

December 28, Mizzima News
Thelaythee on Asia tour

One of the famous 'Ahnyeint' (variety dance show) troupes in Burma,
'Colourful Ahnyeint' by Thelaythee will perform on December 30 in Kuala
Lumpur, Malaysia to commemorate the 60th Independence Day.

This dance troupe is popular for its jokes which mocks and ridicules the
weaknesses and faults of the military regime with great sense of humour.
The Burmese people from Malaysia have organised this show and will proceed
to Thailand and Singapore too.

"They will perform in Kuala Lumpur on December 30 and on January 6 in
Penang. In Kuala Lumpur, they will perform at the Kotaraya mall. We have
booked the auditorium which can accommodate about 1,500 people. The ticket
price will be 25 Ringgit", Ko Kyaw Kyaw, one of the organizers of this
show told Mizzima.

There will be four comedians viz. Panthee (Apple), Zithi (Plum), Kyethee
(button), and Godzilla. The main dancer will be Chaw Suu Myo and the other
dancer will be Mya Sabe Ngone.

"We believe this show can highlight the sufferings of the people inside
Burma and what is going on in Burma which is not known to the Burmese
people in exile. This is the reason why we have organised this show", Ko
Kyaw Kyaw added.

After performing in Malaysia, the dance troupe will proceed to Bangkok in
Thailand and Singapore. They will perform in Bangkok on January 12 and 13
and on January 19 in Singapore.

Since they could perform their dance variety show to the satisfaction of
the people in Burma, the troupe hopes they can perform too in a foreign
land to the satisfaction of the Burmese people in exile, the comedian
Godzilla said.

"We will crack jokes in a foreign land too as we do in Burma. Though we
will have more freedom in foreign countries, we would crack the same
jokes. It won't be much different. In the meantime we will perform which
will move the hearts of our people", Godzilla said to Mizzima.

The VCD of their show performed on November 24 in Kandawgyi Hmyaw Sin Kyun
in Rangoon is very popular among the audience and is being circulated
among people.

"I think the people love our performance, because we say what they are
feeling," Godzilla further said.

The comedian Godzilla said that all the proceeds from the sales of the
tickets of these shows will go to charity social works for HIV infected
children and other social causes.

"We shall go to any county if we are invited. We don't perform for profit.
We will perform for all the Burmese people in exile if the situation
permits us to do so", Godzilla added.

____________________________________
ON THE BORDER

December 31, Jakarta Post
Myanmar reports bird flu outbreak in chickens near Myanmar-Thai border town

Myanmar has reported an outbreak of the deadly H5N1 bird flu virus among
domestic chickens in a village near the Myanmar-Thai border, state-run
media reported Saturday.

The unusual deaths of domestic chickens in a village in eastern Shan
State's Mongphyat township, about 50 kilometers north of the Myanmar-Thai
border, was reported to the Livestock Breeding and Veterinary department
on Dec. 23, the state-run New Light of Myanmar newspaper reported.

Laboratory tests confirmed the presence of the H5N1 virus, the paper said.

A report by the department assessed that the virus spread to the area from
Keng Tung township following a bird flu outbreak there on Nov. 18 when
2,058 chickens at a farm died and another 533 were slaughtered to prevent
the virus from spreading.

Mongphyat is situated 58 kilometers south of Keng Tung.

Myanmar had earlier confirmed its first human bird flu case on Nov. 27,
when a 7-year old girl in the village in Keng Tung township was infected
during a bird flu outbreak among poultry.

The young girl was treated at the People's hospital in Keng Tung before
she was discharged.

Authorities imposed controls such as setting up restricted zones, culling
poultry, disinfection of affected premises and banning the transport of
chickens, the paper said.

Myanmar reported its first H5N1 outbreak in the central Myanmar city of
Mandalay in 2006. Bird flu outbreaks were also reported in farms in Yangon
in February and March, in southeastern Mon State and Bago in July and
eastern Bago, about 80 kilometers north of Yangon, in October.

Bird flu has recently resurfaced in parts of Asia, with human deaths
reported in Indonesia and China and fresh poultry outbreaks plaguing other
countries during the winter months when the virus typically flares. (**)

http://www.thejakartapost.com/detailgeneral.asp?fileid=20071229121437&irec=10

____________________________________

December 31, Khonumthung News
Bangladesh authorities arrest 14 Chins from Burma

Bangladesh authorities arrested 14 Chins from Burma in Rumana village in
Bandarban district of Chittagong hill tracts in Bangladesh for
distributing Bible tracks (booklet) on November 28, 2007.

Carson Baptist Church's Youth Ministry based in Aizawl, capital of Mizoram
state, northeast India had sent 14 Chins from Burma to Bangladesh to
distribute the Bengali version of Bible tracks (booklet) to Bawm tribal
people in Bandarban district as part of a Christian mission to Bangladesh.

The 14 Chins arrived in Bangladesh on November 19 and were arrested in
Rumana village in Bandarban town as some people complained to the
authorities. The arrested Chins were later taken to jail in Bandarban
town.

"They have been arrested for distributing Bible tracks but the Bangladesh
government had charged them under Foreigner's Act." said Pu Khin, a member
of Carson Baptist Church Youth Ministry.

"The case will be heard in court in Bardarban town tomorrow", he added.

The arrested Chins were identified as Tumbika (40), Bawithiangbika (28),
Laldengliana (20), Rualthang (23), H.Lalrinzama (20), R.Lalneihsang (18,)
Tialkipmem (30), Awtkipsung (22), Zatinremi (18), Kulh Cung (33), Ceuthang
(20), Ramtinthanga (21), Vanlalmawia (23), and Thatinhmung (18).

The arrested Chins from Burma live mostly in Aizawl and Lunglei in Mizoram
state. Later, they joined the missionary work of the Carson Baptist
Church's Youth Ministry in Aizawl.

"Our Programme Director in Aizawl is planning to go to Bangladesh to see
their condition," said Pu Khin.

Previously, Carson Baptist Church Youth Ministry had sent seven young
Christians for missionary work among Bawm tribe in Bangladesh. However,
there was no report of disrupting their free practice of faith.

Bawm tribe from Bangladesh shares the same language as Lai tribe from Chin
state in Burma and from Mizoram state in India.

Recently, the Carson Baptist Church has been giving training to youths who
are interested in missionary work.

____________________________________
DRUG

December 31, Narinjara News
Burmese man arrested in Bangladesh with 800 Yaba tablets

A Burmese yaba smuggler was arrested in Bangladesh on Saturday along with
800 yaba tablets that had been smuggled from the town of Maungdaw on the
Burmese side, said a Bangladesh official.

The arrestee was identified as Aullar Babu from Maungdaw Township in
Arakan State.

Bangladesh police recovered 800 yaba tablets from the man during a search
of his luggage when he arrived at a bus station in Teknaf, the Bangladesh
border town opposite Maungdaw.

The police official said the yaba tablets were intended for sale in
Bangladesh cities like Chittagong and Dhaka, where Burmese made yaba is in
high demand and yields a large profit.

The selling price of the 800 seized yaba tablets would have been an
estimated 800,000 taka, or about 15,200,000 Burmese kyat, in the capital
Dhaka.  The same amount would only bring in about 160,000 taka in the
border area between Burma and Bangladesh.

Aullar Babu was sent to Cox's Bazar prison yesterday by police to be
charged for his involvement in drug smuggling and illegal entry, as he
entered Bangladesh without solid documents.

Bangladesh authorities are now conducting an operation against yaba
smuggling in Bangladesh because many young people, including students, are
using the drug widely in Dhaka and Chittagong.

Many yaba syndicates have been broken up and many yaba addicts have been
arrested by Bangladesh law enforcement agencies in the operation.

____________________________________
BUSINESS / TRADE

December 31, AFP via thepeninsulaqatar.com
Myanmar's economy fuels fears of unrest

Myanmar's already battered economy is groaning under the weight of new
sanctions following a crackdown on dissent, business leaders say, fueling
concerns that the hardships could spark more protests.

The United States, the European Union and Australia slapped tougher
sanctions on Myanmar's military regime in the wake of the bloody
suppression of pro-democracy protests in September.

A UN investigator found that at least 31 people were killed when soldiers
opened fire on the peaceful protests, which were led by Buddhist monks in
Yangon and other cities around Myanmar, formerly known as Burma.

The country has been under a patchwork of sanctions for years, but the
latest measures have blocked access to US financial institutions and made
it more difficult to export Myanmar's highly desired teak and precious
stones.

The US sanctions have targeted specific companies and business leaders,
noteably the flamboyant tycoon Tay Za, who is close to the top military
leadership.

Tay Za has bitterly complained that the sanctions have crippled his Air
Bagan airline, and warned that he would be forced to pass along his own
economic pain to his employees.

Other business leaders have echoed that sentiment. Some say that they are
struggling to stay in business only to support their employees, and that
the current situation could soon become unsustainable.

"These sanctions pose problems for us. If the government suffers, we,
businessmen have to suffer. If we suffer, the workers have to suffer,"
said one top business leader in Yangon, speaking on condition of
anonymity.

The original protests were sparked by the economic hardships facing
Myanmar's impoverished population, after an overnight hike in fuel prices
on August 15 left many unable to afford even a bus ride to work.

The Yangon business leader said that he and other factory owners quickly
negotiated deals with their workers, who had threatened their own protests
over the fuel prices.

"The country's economic development depends on the political situation. We
cannot say yet what could happen next year. Right now we are running our
business at a loss, just to keep our workers employed," he said.

Myanmar's fledgling tourism industry has also taken a blow, as the country
saw an almost total drop-off in foreign arrivals after the crackdown.

Sean Turnell, an expert on Myanmar's economy at Australia's Macquarie
University, said the tourism business in the Southeast Asian nation has
"completely collapsed" due to a plunge in demand after the September
violence.

"The events of August are going to come back because the economy is
getting worse, and the level of public anger in the country is still very
high," said Turnell. "In Burma, big unrest always comes when people feel
they have nothing much to lose," Turnell said.

http://www.thepeninsulaqatar.com/Display_news.asp?section=World_News&subsection=Philippines+%26+South+Asia&month=December2007&file=World_News2007123154823.xml

____________________________________

December 31, Democratic Voice of Burma
State cooperatives evict local businesses

Private stores opened on space rented from the Burmese government's
cooperatives office in Pakokku have been ordered by the cooperatives
headquarters to move out before the end of 2007.

A Pakokku resident said that government cooperatives in Magwe rented out
space in front of their office to about ten private business owners about
seven years ago as a means of raising funds for its employees.

“But the cooperatives headquarters has been pressuring the businesses
owners to move somewhere else since about nine months ago, but they won't
provide any assistance or compensation for the relocation of the shops,"
the resident said.

"The businesses are going to lose a lot of money if they have to relocate
because they have already spent so much on building their shops and
renovating the space and so on."

One business owner said that the store owners had written a letter of
complaint to the minister of commerce and the divisional Peace and
Development Council chairman, but had so far received no assistance.

"We rented this space from the cooperatives with a proper contract,” the
owner said.

“It doesn't say anywhere that have to move when asked. We have spent a lot
of money on setting up our shop here."

____________________________________

December 30, Ame Info
Airways out of Myanmar

Qatar Airways has announced it is to cease its four times a week service
to Myanmar, formerly known as Burma, from January 9 for 'commercial'
reasons, reported Reuters. But travel agents in the military-ruled country
claim the flights are usually very full and feel the decision is due to
political pressure from western nations after Myanmar clamped down on
pro-democracy protests. Qatar Airways launched its Doha-Yangon route in
December 2004.

http://www.ameinfo.com/142678.html

____________________________________
REGIONAL

December 28, The Nation
Press freedom in Southeast Asia deteriorates - Seapa

Press freedom in Southeast Asian countries has been weakened in 2007, the
Southeast Asia Press Alliance (Seapa) said Friday.

Burma deteriorated from its already abysmal position while Singapore
widened the scope of its uncompromising media laws to include the new
media, just as its citizens were beginning to test the freedom found on
the Internet.

Seapa said a similar development has transpired in Malaysia, which is
showing signs of backing down from a longstanding promise to never censor
the Internet

At the other end of Southeast Asia's political spectrum, the more
liberated countries have seen backsliding on the press freedom front.

The Philippine press has been threatened and charged by the government for
everything ranging from "sedition" to "obstruction of justice".

It has been warned that coverage of President Gloria Macapagal Arroyo's
many critics would be dealt with as criminally contemptuous of government
and state.

Indonesia has made some headway in reforming some of its antiquated laws,
but this progress has been overshadowed by the uneven, unpredictable, and
surprising laws introduced to the detriment of press freedom.

"The country's promising Press Law remained underutilised, leaving
journalists vulnerable under the Criminal Code," Seapa said.

 "Even a newly ratified Constitution and postcoup democratic elections in
Thailand could not mask a slew of hastily passed laws under what is
supposedly a temporary and selflimited military junta. Some of this
legislation could severely undermine human rights and democracy and cast
a dark shadow over Thailand's press and electronic media in particular."

"Indeed, the passage of laws on "national security" and Internetrelated
crimes in Thailand has been a familiar theme in 2007 to all of Southeast
Asia, from Vietnam to the Philippines and Malaysia through to Laos.

All highlighted the uncertainties they faced and will continue to face in
the coming year," Seapa said.

http://www.nationmultimedia.com/2007/12/28/regional/regional_30060586.php

____________________________________

December 28, Wall Street Journal Online
China: New Dam Builder for the World - Shai Oster

Home to almost half of the world's 45,000 biggest dams, China has embarked
on a push to export its hydropower know-how to developing countries --
even as it contends with environmental damage and social upheaval at home
from the massive Three Gorges Dam.

Many other countries and international organizations have begun to shy
away from dam building. But Chinese companies and banks are now involved
in billions of dollars worth of deals to construct at least 47 major dams
in 27 countries, including Sudan and Myanmar, nations criticized for
human-rights abuses and poor environmental track records.
[Merowe Dam, north of Khartoum, Sudan is being built by two Chinese
companies.]
Merowe Dam, north of Khartoum, Sudan is being built by two Chinese companies.

Just this week, Gezhouba Co., one of China's biggest engineering firms,
said it won a $1.5 billion contract to build a hydroelectric dam in
Pakistan. Earlier this year, the company announced it would build a $1.5
billion dam in Nigeria. China's leading dam builder, Sinohydro Corp. Ltd.
last month won a bid to build a dam in Laos whose cost is estimated at $2
billion.

For China, the projects are a highly visible and permanent part of its
effort to increase aid to Africa and Asia, helping to build infrastructure
in exchange for access to resources such as oil and copper. In many of the
countries where China is building dams, local governments and parts of the
population welcome hydropower as a clean, renewable source of
otherwise-scarce energy.

African and Asian delegations visiting China are taken each year to see
the Three Gorges Dam as a model project even though it has been dogged by
problems ranging from spiraling costs and unrest caused by forced
relocation of more than a million citizens to rapid land erosion and
increased pollution. Criticism of the dam -- which is the largest in the
world by many measures -- has become so persistent that the Chinese
government has recently begun to acknowledge the issues. But
environmentalists and human-rights activists fret that China will repeat
many of the same mistakes it has made with dams at home as it leads a dam
revival abroad.

"China is promoting dams around the world based on an analysis which
doesn't recognize the true cost of these projects," said Peter Bosshard,
policy director at International Rivers, an environmental advocacy group
based in Berkeley, California.

Within China, the government has started to rethink big dams, paying more
attention to the environment and marshaling popular support by enforcing
requirements like impact assessments and public hearings.

And even hydropower advocates outside China are anxious, worrying that any
problems in China's high-profile foreign building campaign could cast a
shadow over the entire industry. "I am personally concerned because I
believe each project is the best ambassador for the industry," says
Alessandro Palmieri, the chief dam expert at the World Bank. "These
projects can go seriously bad," he warns. He worries about the risks of
projects running into environmental problems or sparking social unrest.

In some cases, they already have. At the $2 billion Merowe Dam along the
Nile Valley in Sudan, financed in part by the Export-Import Bank of China,
several villagers protesting forced resettlement were killed by local
police in April last year. The United Nations has complained about other
human-rights abuses and suppression of anti-dam activism there. Other
proposed dams in Africa could threaten national parks in Ghana and Zambia,
putting parts of them underwater and altering the ecosystem,
environmentalists say. The China Three Gorges Project Corp., the
quasi-state company that managed the construction of the immense Chinese
dam, is considering forming a partnership with Western power companies
that are weighing plans for a dam in the politically unstable Democratic
Republic of Congo that would yield twice as much power as the Three Gorges
Dam.

China is equally active in neighboring Southeast Asia, where some 21
Chinese companies are involved in 52 hydropower projects, according to
research issued this year at the China-ASEAN Power Cooperation &
Development Forum.

Environmentalists say dams have already damaged the Mekong River's
headwaters within China's borders. They want to stop China building any
more downstream. Activists are targeting China's building of dams in
Myanmar, which they say is hurting local communities through forced
relocations while supporting an authoritarian regime. In Laos, one of the
poorest countries in the world, Sinohydro, which built the Three Gorges
Dam, is constructing two dams to export electricity to neighboring China
and Thailand.
[Laos's Nam Theun 2 dam is backed by two international organizations.]
Laos's Nam Theun 2 dam is backed by two international organizations.

A broader backlash against China's growing dominance in Southeast Asian
and African business and trade has grown along with opposition to its
dam-building spree. "China is using its political power to convince lower
Mekong countries to accept projects and investment," says Premrudee
Daoroung, a Thai activist with Towards Ecological Recovery & Regional
Alliance, which is campaigning against dams along the Mekong River. "In
many cases the local people are starting to talk against the Chinese."

China and other hydropower advocates such as the International Commission
on Large Dams, a trade group, say building big dams can raise living
standards in the poorest parts of the world. Africa has only developed
about 8% of its hydropower potential, according to the commission.

"We don't want to be misunderstood," Li Ruogu, head of the Export-Import
Bank of China, said in an interview. "We want people to understand we are
not hurting the environment. We are helping nations to develop."

China's push comes as large dams have largely fallen out of favor in the
West in recent years -- but only after western countries ended a
decades-long dam-building binge. Dams were a big part of nation building,
industrialization and poverty-alleviation plans, from the U.S.'s Hoover
Dam, built during the Great Depression, to Europe's biggest dam, the
Alqueva in Portugal, proposed in 1957 and finished in 2002. Europe and
North America, two of the world's richest regions, have already exploited
around 70% of their hydropower potential, according to the International
Commission on Large Dams.

Dams fell out of favor as their environmental consequences became clearer.
One case is China's Three Gorges Dam. Construction of the dam was approved
in 1992 despite strong opposition, eventually creating a 400-mile-long
reservoir and forcing some 1.4 million people to resettle. Supporters
claimed the dam's benefits -- preventing devastating floods downstream and
generating clean power -- outweighed any negatives. Critics said several
smaller dams could have prevented floods better and left a smaller
footprint. In the end, the mammoth dam had an oversized impact on world
opinion. Reports of corruption and mismanagement and worsening
environmental fallout there helped galvanize the international movement
against hydropower.

During the 1990s, under pressure from environmentalists, the number of new
dams under construction world-wide fell to just over 2,000, from a peak of
5,400 in the 1970s. The World Bank, which spearheaded dams as cornerstones
of raising nations out of poverty, stopped nearly all its funding for big
dams. In 2000, an influential group called the World Commission on Dams
issued a scathing report calling into question the benefits of hydropower.
That report marked the nadir for the industry.

But other factors have brought hydropower back into vogue, such as rising
oil prices and concern about the impact on global warming from burning
fossil fuels like coal. In 2005, the Asian Development Bank and the World
Bank started to lend again to develop dams when they funded the Nam Theun
2 dam in Laos as part of plan to raise income by exporting electricity. In
some cases, hydropower is growing as a backup power supply for wind and
solar power.

Meanwhile, China, largely through its state-run Export-Import Bank of
China, has moved even more aggressively, experts say. "In the last four or
five years, China has become the most important financier of large dams
around the world," says Mr. Bosshard of International Rivers, the
environmental group.
[Map]

His agency and other groups are targeting the Export-Import Bank because
they believe it shoulders the greatest responsibility because it lends to
Chinese construction companies building dams. They want China to adopt
international standards for social responsibility and transparency, which
is part of a broader debate about China's aid to the developing world.
China has been attacked for its no-strings approach to aid, which some say
allows human-rights abuses and corruption to flourish.

Chinese officials say their aid policy is evolving along with the
country's deepening involvement abroad. Recently, Mr. Li, of the
Export-Import Bank, invited Mr. Bosshard for a meeting after reading his
group's criticism of his bank online. The bank has publicized its lending
guidelines, and is considering joining with the World Bank in projects in
Africa.

"It's not right to say we don't care about the environment and social
responsibility," said Mr. Li, a Princeton-trained economist who has worked
at China's central bank, the Asian Development Bank, and the International
Monetary Fund. But, he says, "you can't stop a country's development
because of some corruption. That doesn't help. You cannot refuse to eat
because you might choke."

Write to Shai Oster at shai.oster at wsj.com
http://online.wsj.com/article_print/SB119880902773554655.html

____________________________________

December 30, Washington Post
India's halt to Burma arms sales may pressure Junta - Glenn Kessler

India has halted all arms sales and transfers to Burma, a development that
could increase international pressure on the military junta that brutally
crushed the pro-democracy "Saffron Revolution" led by monks this fall.

The Indian government's decision has not been officially announced, but
diplomatic sources said it has been privately confirmed by New Delhi to
top U.S. officials in recent weeks. In a little-noticed statement, first
lady Laura Bush noted the decision in a video teleconference she held on
Dec. 10 in recognition of International Human Rights Day. Ticking off
actions taken by countries around the world in response to the crackdown,
Bush said, "India, one of Burma's closest trading partners, has stopped
selling arms to the junta."

A spokesman for the Indian Embassy in Washington declined to comment.

Burma, also known as Myanmar, is regarded as one of the world's most
repressive nations. The National League for Democracy, the party of Nobel
Peace Prize laureate Aung San Suu Kyi, won a landslide victory in the
country's last elections, in 1990, but the military leadership refused to
recognize the outcome. Suu Kyi has been under house arrest or in prison on
and off since then.

But in September, massive demonstrations led by Buddhist monks threatened
the junta's rule, until the army arrested thousands of monks and democracy
activists. Of the thousands arrested, 700 remain behind bars along with
1,150 political prisoners already in detention, according to Amnesty
International. At least six members of the 88 Generation Students, a
leading pro-democracy group, were arrested last week, the State Department
said.

Before the protests, military ties between India and Burma had appeared to
be on a fast track. Military contacts had increased in early 2007, with
New Delhi seeking help battling Burmese-based insurgent groups operating
on its northeastern border and also attempting to counteract China's
growing influence in the Burmese economy. Indian and Burmese military
forces began conducting joint operations, and Indian officials indicated
they would grant Burma's request for military equipment.

In one sign of cooperation, India began discussing the transfer of
military helicopters that Amnesty International, in a July report, said
are "highly likely to contain components, technology and munitions"
originating from European Union nations and the United States, undermining
embargoes by those countries.

"India's relationship with Burma has expanded pretty dramatically in the
past few years," said Michael J. Green, a former top Asia adviser to
President Bush who is now at the Center for Strategic and International
Studies. He said that Southeast Asian neighbors of Burma had complained to
Bush about India's deepening military ties with Burma. "They expect it of
China, but India is a democracy," Green said.

He said India's decision to end arms sales to Burma is "a big deal for
U.S.-India relations. I think they are shifting."

More broadly, India's move may put pressure on China, currently Burma's
largest trading partner and arms supplier, experts said.

Last week, a bipartisan group of 48 senators, led by Richard J. Durbin
(D-Ill.) and John McCain (R-Ariz.), signed a letter to Bush urging him to
support an international arms embargo against Burma, in the form of a U.N.
Security Council resolution. "No responsible nation should provide weapons
to a regime as reprehensible as the one found in Burma," the letter said.

Gordon Johndroe, a spokesman for the National Security Council, said, "We
support an arms embargo against Burma and have been engaged in discussions
with various countries on the matter."

China is one of the nations holding veto power at the United Nations, and
few expect it to support the arms embargo. But analysts said that India's
decision could force China to think of options short of an arms embargo to
pressure the Burmese junta.

In the 1990s, China became Burma's most important trading partner,
according to Amnesty International, providing more than $2 billion worth
of weapons and military equipment, including tanks, armored personnel
carriers and artillery pieces such as howitzers, antitank guns and
antiaircraft guns, some sold at below-market prices.

"The Chinese clearly are sensitive to the emerging role they are playing,"
Durbin said in an interview. "We have an obligation to continue to remind
them we need their help in stopping some of the outrages in the world."

A top European envoy last week also urged China to use its influence in
Burma, specifically to end the house arrest of Suu Kyi. "Any sign from the
Burmese authorities to progress on this path will be welcome, and the
Chinese intervention is fundamental," Piero Fassino told reporters at the
end of a three-day trip to China.

In her year-end news conference last week, Secretary of State Condoleezza
Rice said that "when the monks were in the streets, that there was an
energy in the international community to try to do something about it,"
but now that momentum has dissipated. "It's our responsibility, along with
others, to try to keep a focus on that effort," she said. "We will return
again and again to the Security Council to discuss this issue. We will
return again and again to those states that have influence, like China, to
move this forward, because there needs to be a process of political
reconciliation."

____________________________________
INTERNATIONAL

December 31, BBC Burmese Service
Rome shows support to Daw Aung San Suu Kyi

Rome City Hall decorated its facade with posters of Daw Aung San Suu Kyi
and French-Colombian hostage, Ingrid Betancourt.
Rome City Hall decorated its facade with posters of Daw Aung San Suu Kyi
and French-Colombian hostage, Ingrid Betancourt.

A giant poster depicting photo of Daw Aung San Suu Kyi, the democracy icon
of Burma, has been on display in Italian capital, Rome.

The mayor of Rome has chosen to display the huge poster in front of the
capital's town hall.

The picture shows the photo of Daw Aung San Suu Kyi and Ingrid Betancourt,
a Colombian politician who has been taken hostage by a leftist rebel group
since 2002.

The display is to reflect the support of Romans to Daw Aung San Suu Kyi
and Burmese people in their struggle for democracy, said Cicilia Brighi,
an Italian trade unionist who also has involved in the campaign.

She told the BBC Burmese Service that this campaign is important in
pushing Italian government to pressure more on Burma's military
government.

____________________________________

December 30, The Asia Age
Global gas lines remain pipedream - Pawan Bali

India’s plan to bring gas through international pipelines was reduced to
mere pipe dreams in 2007. This year India lost Burma-India pipeline to
China, is on the verge of being thrown out of Iran-Pakistan-India (IPI)
pipeline and no one knows whether Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India
(TAPI) pipeline project is actually feasible.

It is ironical that India lost Burma-India pipeline which the analysts
believed would be the first of the three pipelines to materialise. Gail
had plan the import of natural gas from Burma through on land pipeline
from Burma through north-eastern states of the country. India’s state
owned companies ONGC Videsh and Gail hold 30 per cent stake in the two
blocks A-1 and A-3. But even after having a stake in these two blocks,
India failed to convince Burma to sell gas to it instead of China. Burma
invited revised bid for A1 and A3 blocks on December 4, 2006. The bids
received were not accepted by Burma, as it felt that they were below
expectation. However, in a meeting held in February 2007 between Burma and
Chinese company PetroChina, Burma decided that the gas from A1 and A3
blocks would be sold to China through pipeline route. This development was
conveyed to the consortium partners (including India) by Burma during a
meeting held at Nay Pyi Taw on March 16, 2007. During this meeting, Gail
impressed upon Burma that Gail’s pipeline offer was still the most
competitive and offered optimum value for them due to proximity of India
to these fields. However, Burma struck to its decision to sell the gas to
China.

Union petroleum minister Murli Deora had claimed that the deal on the IPI
pipeline will be signed by June this year. Before the trilateral meeting,
a major break through was achieved in June when India and Pakistan agreed
on the transportation fee. Both the neighbouring countries also agreed
that Mr Deora will visit Pakistan next month to resolve the other
controversial issue of transit fee. It was indicated by Pakistan and India
that they will not allow issue of transit fee to upheld the pipeline which
was first conceived in 1989. Pakistan’s petroleum secretary Ahmad Waqar
also assured Indian side that complete security will be given to that part
of the pipeline which will carry gas exclusive for India. Tehran’s special
representative H. Ghanimi Fard invited Indian Prime Minister Manmohan
Singh and Pakistan’s President Pervez Musharraf to Tehran to sign the
pipeline agreement. The three countries targeted the gas flow through the
pipeline by 2011. It was widely believed that the three countries will
finally sign a deal on the pipeline this year. However, after June
meeting, India mysteriously started staying away from the IPI project
talks held about four times in Tehran and Islamabad. This led to
allegations that India was keeping away under pressure from US. Angry with
the India’s absence representatives from Tehran and Islamabad have
repeatedly threatened that they will go ahead with the pipeline even
without India.

____________________________________

December 31, Billings Gazette
Wyoming ministry comes to aid of young Myanmar girl - Susan Olp

The contrast in photos of young Shwe Yee Myin before and after her recent
surgery is striking.

In one photo, the petite 10-year-old girl, who lives in Myanmar, looks
utterly downcast. In the other, both her eyes and her lips are smiling.

"I'd never seen her smile before," said Patrick Klein, founder and
director of Vision Beyond Borders. "And her mom thanked me with tears in
her eyes."

Shwe was born with a deformed left foot that faced backward, and she
walked on the ankle of her right foot. But a combination of persistence on
the part of Vision Beyond Borders and a contact in Myanmar, plus the
generosity of a surgeon in Singapore, helped turn the girl's life around.

In a country that has lately been in the news for the oppression of its
people, Shwe's story is a ray of sunshine in an otherwise cloudy sky. Now
Klein would like to expand on that bit of good news by improving medical
care for all the people in Shwe's village.

Klein founded nonprofit Vision Beyond Borders, which has headquarters in
Sheridan, Wyo., in 1984. Initially the Christian outreach focused on China
and other parts of Southeast Asia, but it has since expanded.

The nonprofit group offers support to the work of Christian nationals and
seeks to improve the lives of impoverished children and women in countries
such as Nepal, India, Turkey, Myanmar, China, Thailand and Vietnam.
Ministries include distributing Bibles and story-telling flannel-graphs,
hand-wind tape players, vegetable seeds and clothing.

Klein and other members of the small staff also frequently take groups of
people from Wyoming, Montana and beyond on short-term missionary trips to
these countries. It was on one of those trips into Myanmar, formerly known
as Burma, about three years ago when former staff member Tyler Groce
encountered Shwe.

The little girl with malformed feet lives in Ha Liang Village, about 45
minutes from the capital city of Yangon. Her plight touched Groce's heart,
Klein said.

"She said to her mom, 'my feet are ugly, I'll never wear pretty shoes and
no man will love me. I want to cut my feet off,' " Klein recounted.

Children teased Shwe for the way she walked, Klein said, and she
eventually dropped out of school.

"She was so down, so depressed," Klein said. "Her parents said 'we need to
get help for her or she'll be scarred not only physically but emotionally
for the rest of her life.' "

Getting the girl out of Myanmar for the needed surgery proved difficult.
The military regime that controls the country has sought to isolate it
from the rest of the world.

Most recently, Myanmar came to the attention of the international
community in September when the government responded with violence to a
pro-democracy demonstration led by monks in the mostly Buddhist nation.
Thirty-one people died in the melee, and thousands more were detained.

Newspapers spread accounts of the violence around the world. Klein said
that friends of his who visited Myanmar two weeks ago saw a trace of hope
for change among the people, now that the world is becoming more aware of
the tyrannical government.

For now, though, it helps to have a friend with connections. In Shwe's
case, a friend of Klein's, a Burmese Christian man named Sonny, managed to
get passports for the girl and her mother.

"With all the unrest, that was a miracle in itself," Klein said.

The pair traveled to Singapore about a month ago. Klein at one time lived
in Singapore, and he was able to get in touch with a surgeon who agreed to
donate his services.

The physician first operated on Shwe's right foot. For two days afterward
she was in pain.

"But when she looked at her foot turned the right way, she was very
happy," Klein said.

About a week after that, the surgeon operated on her left foot, and he
managed to completely turn it around. Klein, who went to visit her in
Singapore the week before last, brought her a pretty dress to wear, and
that made her smile as well.

Shwe isn't the only one with medical needs in her village of 15,000
people. The people supported the freedom movement, Klein said, and the
government banished them to a snake-infested, disease-riddled area where
poverty is rampant and medical care nonexistent.

"A lot of women die in childbirth, and there is a high mortality rate,"
said Klein who has been making trips to Myanmar for the past dozen years.
"It's one of the worst villages I've ever seen."

Vision Beyond Borders has brought vegetable seeds to Ha Liang Village, as
well as clothing and some medical supplies. Now the Wyoming ministry is
trying to raise $30,000 to build a clinic that can serve the villagers.

Klein also hopes eventually to fix up the school and build playground
equipment for the children.

"We're trying to find long-term ways to help them because the government
doesn't help," Klein said. "What a better way to show these people love,
not just tell them about it."

http://billingsgazette.net/articles/2007/12/30/news/wyoming/22-hope.txt

____________________________________
OPINION / OTHER

December 28, Burma Digest
U Gambira of Saffron Revolution: Burma’s Person of the Year

In Burma Digest poll for Person of the Year 2007 (Burma), we got hundreds
of direct votings on the website, and many more thousands of votes sent
via email. U Gambira, and his fellow monks, who led Burma’s Saffron
Revolution in 2007 got highest number of votes; and accordingly, named
here as “The Person of the Year 2007 in Burma”.

U Gambira, the 29-year old leader of the All-Burma Monks’ Alliance that
spearheaded nationwide protests in Burma in September, became a fugitive
following the deadly Sept. 26-27 crackdown on protesters in Burma.  He
made important announcements to the world outside Burma about the
alliance’s aims and in a climate of fear and arrests of pro-democracy
activists, became one of the new leaders of Burma’s freedom movement.

U Gambira led the life of a monk until summer 2007, dedicating his life to
religious study and working compassionately for the benefit of all people.
 Following the SPDC/USDA/SAS attacks on monks in Pakkoku, U Gambira became
involved with what we now call the ‘Saffron Revolution’.  His actions and
those of his fellow monks brought the world’s attention to the protests in
Burma, and gave enormous impetus to the pro-democracy movement inside
Burma and with the activist movements around the world. The SPDC saw him
and the rest of the protest organisers (and participatants) as their
enemy; He was targeted by the SPDC and went into hiding, his family taken
hostage until he gave himself up.

U Gambira now languishes in a grim prison cell, and like other protesters
beaten and tortured by sadistic SPDC minions.  He is reported to be
incarcerated at Insein prison and it seems likely that he will be charged
with treason and given what amounts to a life sentence behind bars. It was
these risks that U Gambira took on himself just a few months ago; he knew
the risk, but acted on his conscience and his belief – a belief that
non-violent protest and the power of prayer against guns and tanks will
eventually win the freedom that the people of Burma so desperately need.

U Gambira acted not for personal gain, or to better himself, or out of any
wish for political power; he acted out of compassion and humility and a
great love for his fellow man, in a manner true to the fundamental calling
of the Sangha.  He very deservedly receives our nomination as ‘Person of
the Year 2007 in Burma.’

The Alliance of All Burmese Buddhist Monks/ All Burma Sangha Coalition

Describing themselves as The Alliance of All Burmese Buddhist Monks, the
author of a widely distributed leaflet gave the military government until
September 17 to issue an apology for its brutal suppression of
demonstrating monks in Pakkoku by police, soldiers and pro-government
paramilitary thugs. When the junta failed to apologize, the alliance urged
all Buddhist monks in the country to hold a “patam nikkujjana kamma”—a
boycott of alms from members of the military regime and its supporters.
The call prompted tens of thousands of monks and civilians around Burma to
stage the largest protest marches against the military government in
nearly 20 years, calling for better living conditions for the people and
national reconciliation.

When the protests began, no one knew the identity of the leaders of the
monks’ alliance. However, the Burmese people heard from some of the
leaders of the underground network when they gave telephone interviews to
overseas radio stations. U Gambira, U Obhasa, U Khemeinda and U Zakada are
now household names. All went into hiding when the crackdown began.

Unfortunately, in early November U Gambira was arrested at his hiding
place in Kyaukse in central Burma. His brother and father were taken
hostage in October in an exchange for U Gambira turning himself in.
However, his brother and father have yet to be freed. The 29-year-old
leading monk has been charged with treason by the Burmese junta, according
to his family. The punishment for treason is a life sentence or death.

____________________________________

December 30, Mizzima News
Burma Military Institution: Turning into a major power equation of
National Reconciliation - Nyo Ohn Myint

Burma's State Peace and Development Council (SPDC) have used Burma
military forces as their core political element to face escalation
pressures and awareness from international community including community
of world body; United Nations. But, regime top leader senior general Than
Shwe tended to save military institution from the political storm. He
instead, sacrificed civil militia groups including USDA in this September
people power movement led by Buddhist monks.

Recent days Thailand's elections results that showed Thai military coup
leaders opened the door for people to decide. Leave the army away from the
political struggle to avoid tension between army and citizens that
happened in 1992 bloody suppression. Thai power struggle seems that elite
political blocs have faced their own agendas than using military power in
the final political struggle. Unlike Thai political society, Burma's
generals used the military institution to challenge the citizens and
defend their wealth and stability.

Nevertheless, International community and restless people of Burma,
political activists and spiritual leaders adopted a very popular word of
"National Reconciliation" and pose to downplay what regime has done
against their own citizens and democracy movement almost two decades from
rural to urban.

International community and various governments included regime's diehard
supporters China, India and ASEAN decided to push the regime to grip the
grand opportunity to reconcile with Daw Aung San Suu Kyi to end the
country's nightmare, disasters and backwardness. No matter, different
strategies they made, the objective of their requests and demands are the
same; "Enough is enough and let's move forward".

However, why regime has ignored the whole world's demands? Recently, one
of the regime apologists stressed that Senior General Than Shwe needs a
time to reinforce his tailor made domination of militarism after September
political uprising. Apologist said that senior general might not have any
immediately worry about Daw Aung San Suu Kyi as long as she is being
detained or rest of the angry citizens, spiritual leaders or international
pressures; he only cares about his own army and military officials who do
not dare to show their unhappiness of his performance towards the
country's stability.

Indeed, there might have some logically differences between top generals
Than Shwe and Maung Aye, but Than Shwe cares about how long he could
divide between military institution and citizens, this is a key for his
maintaining a power. Most of his speeches and statements are meant to the
army's unity, encouragement of militarism is needed in Burma for defending
possible country disintegration, national pride, and ready to fight
against the neo-colonialism and even he had created more enemies for his
army to keep united.

One of the ASEAN diplomats stressed that "Than Shwe might not have any
solution for his own army this time if he declares the defeat of his
regime to the democracy movement based on the country needs a political
changes lead to the better economy." He could not retreat his words of his
regime is the best for the country, and unable to disclose this is a time
to work with all parties to rebuild the country.

Obviously, he might use his brutality of keeping up a power. He has showed
how his violent means against spiritual leaders, civilians, women, even
Burma's once most powerful military institution "military intelligence"
along with former prime minister general Khin Nyunt if someone tried to
challenge his power. Hence, most of the military officials witnessed and
scared these brutalities; knock down any opponents without hesitation with
rapid brutal responses.

Closed to the SPDC stressed that "young and mid level officials are fully
aware the current mounting political disasters but they have to look after
their stability and status quo, position and promotion, of cause their
families' wellbeing". But they indeed, wait for another round of civil
movement and they would side with the winners. Bottom line is they may be
expecting political leaders to assure their safety and their role in the
post Than Shwe era, but they still do not have any grantee or welcome from
oppositions.

Indeed, Burma's current popular word of National Reconciliation does not
focus the role of military after post Than Shwe era. One of the main power
blocs; Burma military institution has been hijacked by elite generals
since 1962. Current dictator general Than Shwe learned from late general
Ne Win and synchronizes the military as main political bloc in the Burma's
political landscape. Either oppositions or military insiders and
reformers' limited request of the military institution to stay natural
could not convey a clear message to the institution. Perhaps,
international community forgets the role of military institution or pays
too much attention towards the SPDC and elite generals to reconcile within
different and distant political blocs.

Burma and Thai military have many different ideologies; Thai military
withdrew from daily politics in 1992 regardless of military elites staged
a coup in 2006. But Burmese generals have created more elite role for the
defense services into daily political landscape. Than Shwe knows well
about it, thus, he promises them as a country savor, created a superior
role in social and political functions.

To the end of authoritarian rule, Burmese democratic leaders should work
on the military institution, to see the division between SPDC and military
personnel to bring future Burma. We all need to prepare for the
transitional period with safe haven for military institution, and open
minded officials to consider the alternative strategy for the country. All
we have to do is to save both citizens and military institution are
victims of authoritarian rule. Indeed, Burma's political landscape is a
simply mathematic equation, who side with who and when.

____________________________________

December 31, Mizzima News
After Killings of the Burmese Monks; The Writing is on the Wall - May Ng

"Since too, murders have been performed --- too terrible for the ear:

That, when the brains were out, the man would die, and there an end;

But now--- they rise again," William Shakespeare, 'Macbeth,' ACT III,
Scene IV

After the Burmese military junta attacked and killed the peaceful monks
and protestors, it is still impossible to imagine how the powerful
military can at last be dismissed. But it is even harder to see now how
the military generals will survive the latest self inflicted blow, by
killing the sons of Buddha in Burma.

Since the independence in 1948, 'Myanmar Tatmadaw' has proclaimed itself
to be the only force capable of maintaining the national peace and
stability. But under the military government, Burma has become the poorest
nation in the region and the home to the largest army in Southeast Asia.

While the military junta spends most of Burma's resources on paying for
the army, the military still has not gained the trust or an outright
victory against the armed rebels. After dominating every facet of Burmese
people's lives since 1962, Myanmar army is still nowhere near removing the
rebel armies, consisted of ceasefire and non-ceasefire armed
organizations.

The legacy of armed conflicts with over a million losses of lives and the
large scale humanitarian crisis caused by the ongoing military occupation
of the ethnic tribal areas, have shown the Myanmar Tatmadaw to be the
cause of the disasters not the savior of Burma as the regime often
proclaims.

Sixty years of the army mantra --'non-disintegration of the Union'-- does
not seem to have made Burma more secure or gain greater solidarity with
its many ethnic nationalities.

The 2005 arrests and the extra long prison sentences for the prominent
Shan NLD leaders, including Hkun Htun Oo, and the ceasefire SSA leader Hso
Ten indicate that the tensions between the Myanmar Tatmadaw and the ethnic
nationalities have not lessened but have increased since the army takeover
of the power almost a half century ago.

The junta's obsession with non-disintegration of the Union, national
solidarity and perpetuation of national sovereignty has permitted the
military to tighten its grip on the political power. But the government's
neglect and mismanagement of the country and its economy has become the
Achilles heel of the regime.

The militarization of the economy has plundered a bountiful nation to the
poorest one. While the army continues to promise democracy and uplift of
morale, the generals continue to demand a greater sacrifice from the
population already suffering from the army induced poverty. Last August's
fuel oil price increase has finally brought home the military's greatest
failure, the widespread poverty, and triggered the largest unrest in two
decades.

After forty five years in power the army has failed to win the war against
the armed rebellions and has now failed to win the peace with the
political oppositions. The regime's legitimacy is at all time low even
when compared to Ne Win's socialist BSPP party. The BSPP has never lost an
election or faced open political oppositions until its fall from power in
1988.

The SPDC in contrast continues to hold on to power against the wishes of
the people who have voted for the opposition NLD party of Aung San Suu
Kyi. The coercion and use of violence against the population have further
eroded the legitimacy of the military. People no longer trust the junta
government and they no longer see the army generals as their legitimate
rulers. The people's goodwill in 1988 helped the SLORC to finally quell
the angry mobs with the promise of the 1990 election. But the present army
junta no longer has the people's goodwill and can only rely on violence
and coercion to control the discontented populace.

Up until now the Burmese political opposition has lacked a unified front,
within the armed organizations and the political oppositions. It may be
changing. Martin Smith in 'State of Strife' observed that as in other
political eras, the situation remained fragmentary on the surface. But he
said that what was striking about most ethnic parties was not their
diversity but the private unity of their views on the need for peace and
democratic reforms.

The opposition political parties are also becoming unified under the
surface as well. Slowly a powerful unity is emerging within the diverse
forces of the political oppositions with a common goal for a free and
democratic Burma. While the overstretched army is facing a dim prospect
and dropping enlistments, it was evident during the recent uprising that
the forces of the protestors do not suffer the same fate and have the
support of the majority of the people.

Most Burmese believe that Burma has three sons, the students, the
soldiers, and the Sangha/monks. Historically the students have been at the
forefront of the political movements. The government's actions, from the
military's destruction of the Students Union Hall in 1962 to the recent
brutal assaults on the monks and students, have elevated the anti-junta
sentiment among the young people.

The extravagant undertakings to weaken and suppress the students' desire
for democracy have obviously not been effective. The spread of information
technology and the increase in political sophistication have caught up
with the '88 and '07 student generations. The imprisonment of the senior
'88 student leaders last August did not stem the tide of the major
protests that followed.

The power of the movement against the government is no longer dependent on
a few top leaders. The largest public demonstrations in two decades took
place in spite of the absent of many important leaders at the helm. It
seems that the political awareness is helping to form new leaderships
quickly in response to the army junta's aggression.

The army under the SPDC regime is not a monolithic force impervious to the
forces against it. Burma's last sons, the soldiers, may hold the key to
how long before the military dictatorship will end. The soldiers have
already voted for the democracy in 1990. The purging of the military
leaderships in 2004 and at other times are signs that all is not well
within the military as it may seem on the surface.

The extensive recording of the wedding of supreme general Than Shwe's
daughter was leaked to Youtube in 2006 and has greatly empowered the
oppositions. The thundering protest that followed a year later may not
necessarily have been a coincidence. This is an important reminder that it
may not take that much to uproot such little loved regime. Since only the
high power elites have access to the video tapes of the wedding, the
betrayal of Than Shwe might have likely come from the top.

If a video tape of the diamond studded wedding can do much damage, it is
not hard to see what the recordings and live evidences of the killings and
abuses of the highly revered Buddhist monks might have in store for the
military generals.

The writing is already on the wall, it is only a matter of time now.

May Ng is from the Southern Shan State of Burma and is a NY Regional
Director of Justice for Human Rights in Burma (J.H.B).