BurmaNet News, January 22, 2008

[Editor]

January 22, 2008 Issue # 3385

INSIDE BURMA
Mizzima News: Two NLD youths arrested for protesting in Taungkok
Mizzima News: ILO's intervention--- the only hope of release for detained
labour activists
DVB: Family members denied visits to Insein prison
SHAN: Burma announces ban on cars with Chinese license plates
Asia Sentinel: Who’s bombing Burma?

ON THE BORDER
Mizzima News: Activists concerned over Burma issue after new Thai gov
Bangkok Post: Rohingya arrested

BUSINESS / TRADE
Irrawaddy: Sanctions affecting Burmese gems trade
Irrawaddy: Burma looks to ‘liberalize’ fuel imports

HEALTH / AIDS
Irrawaddy: Minister hails Burmese medicines ‘best in Southeast Asia’

ASEAN
Philippine Daily Inquirer: ‘ASEAN massage parlor’

REGIONAL
Reuters: China urges Burma to set date for Gambari

INTERNATIONAL
AP: China says no to pressure on Myanmar
AFP: Myanmar going 'downhill on all fronts,' says US
Irrawaddy: US Pacific Command issues damning report on Burma

OPINION / OTHER
Irrawaddy: Who can rescue Nilar Thein? – Kyaw Zwa Moe
Mizzima News: Can the U.N. change the mindset of the generals? - Dr. Sein
Myint

____________________________________
INSIDE BURMA

January 22, Mizzima News
Two NLD youths arrested for protesting in Taungkok – Htein Linn

Two youth wing members of the National League for Democracy, Burma's main
opposition party, were arrested by authorities in Taungkok town, Arakan
state in western Burma. They had staged a fleeting protest demanding
restoration of democracy in Burma.

Soe Min Oo and Kalar Shae, members of the NLD youth wing, were riding
bicycles into the town and were shouting slogans like 'Restore Democracy',
'Release political prisoners including Daw Aung San Suu Kyi' and 'Reduce
Commodity Prices', a colleague told Mizzima.

About 15 minutes after they began protesting the two were arrested by the
local police and were taken to Myoma police station in Taungkok. They are
being detained there, the colleague, who did not wish to be named, said.

"They [the two] began the protests at about 1:30 p.m. (local time) from
the Phaungdaw Oo pagoda and went on the U Uttama Street. Not long after
they began, police came and arrested them," the colleague said.

Security remains tight in Taungkok, following a foiled protest attempt on
Thursday, the colleague said.

The protest is the first following the wide spread demonstrations led by
monks in August and September, which the ruling junta brutally suppressed.

Political activists and members of the NLD, particularly the youth wing,
in Taungkok, Arakan state had actively participated in the protests in
September.

On Thursday, over 200 people including 10 Buddhist monks gathered in the
town to stage a protest rally. However, the plan was foiled by security
forces, which arrived in time, dispersed the crowd.

____________________________________

January 22, Mizzima News
ILO's intervention--- the only hope of release for detained labour activists

The intervention of the International Labour Organization (ILO) seems to
be the only hope for the family members of six labour rights activists,
who have been sentenced to long term imprisonment, by the authorities.

The family of the labour rights activists, who were arrested on May Day
for organizing labour rights discussions at the American Centre in
Rangoon, said they had appealed to the ILO to intervene in the case and
secure their release.

One of the relatives of the detained activists said, "They [the ILO] have
told us that they would try their best and would meet the detainees.
Without help from the ILO, we have no hope because they [the junta] have
sentenced the activists to lengthy prison terms," he added.

However, the ILO office in Rangoon declined to comment.

The Burmese authorities, meanwhile, sentenced four of the activists, Thu
Rein Aung, Wai Lin, Myo Min and Kyaw Min to 28 years of prison term and
Kyaw Kyaw and Nyi Nyi Zaw to 20 years.

The activists, who were sentenced in September without a defense counsel,
continued to be detained at Burma's notorious Insein prison, relatives,
who visit the detainees once a week, said.

Aung Thein, the defense counsel of those arrested said, the divisional
Court has rejected their appeal to reconsider the sentences of the
activists.

"We are now in the process of filing a petition to the High Court. We have
submitted an application to allow a petition. This is our only hope to
fight for the detainees," Aung Thein said.

____________________________________

January 22, Democratic Voice of Burma
Family members denied visits to Insein prison

Relatives of activists detained in Insein prison were turned away
yesterday due to stricter regulations on family visits requiring them to
bring original copies of their household lists.

Daw Tin Tin Win, the 70-year-old mother of 88 generation student leader
Ant Bwe Kyaw, was denied a visit because she only had a copy of the
document.

"It was very disappointing. They said I would not be allowed to see my son
unless I brought the original copy of our household list,” she said.

“They told me to just leave the items I'd brought for my son and go if I
didn't have it."

Relatives of All-Burmese Monk Alliance leader U Gambira, who travelled
from Mandalay to see him, were told the same thing by the prison
officials.

88 generation student leader Ko Mya Aye and Ma Lay Lay Mon's families from
Rangoon were also turned away, and had to go back home to pick up the
original copies of their household lists.

____________________________________

January 22, Shan Herald Agency for News
Burma announces ban on cars with Chinese license plates – Hseng Khio Fah

On January 15, at 9:00 am, a Burma official issued a statement banning on
Chinese vehicles from stopping overnight in Muse, at the Sino-Burma border
in Northern Shan State.

According to a local source, Major-General Aung Than Htut, Commander of
the Lashio-based Northeastern Region Command, instructed the local
official U Nyunt Harn to ban cars with Chinese number plates from staying
overnight.  U Nyunt Harn then issued official statements along the border
areas of Burma especially in Muse.

“Most rich people use Chinese licensed cars. They cost K 10,000,000 (US $
8,333 ) with license and cars purchased in Burma cost about the same but
they come without license.  Therefore, sometimes they are caught driving
cars without license.  So, people don’t want to use it,” said a person who
is driving a Chinese licensed car.

“The gates from Jiegao (in China) to Muse (in Burma) and vice-versa are
only opened from 6:30 am (Burmese time) 8:00 am (Chinese time) to 10:30pm
(Burmese time) 12:00 pm (Chinese time). Those cars are allowed to travel
into Muse during the opening time,” added a local source.

Man Wiang gate, Sin Phyu Zae gate and Shwe Nang Taw gate are the 3
Burma-China border gates. Trucks are allowed to travel through Man Wiang
gates and cars and motorbikes are allowed to pass via Sin Phyu Zae gate,
while Shwe Nang Taw gate allows people on foot to enter.

____________________________________

January 22, Asia Sentinel
Who’s bombing Burma? – Brian McCartan

The junta blames insurgents and shadowy foreigners for several blasts, but
analysts suspect the military itself

A third explosion went off near the ticketing office at the Rangoon
Railway Station
Burma's ruling State Peace and Development Council has accused Karen
ethnic minority insurgents and a "major group from abroad" for a series of
bombings over the past 10 days, raising suspicions that the junta itself
is behind the violence in an effort shore up unity in the armed forces or
as an excuse for crackdowns against the pro-democracy movement and ethnic
resistance groups.

The first of four explosions took place in a public toilet at the
Naypyidaw-Pyinamana Railway Station on January 11, killing a 40-year old
Karen woman.  It was the first time that a bombing has taken place in the
area of the new Burmese capital at Naypyidaw. Although security was
tightened after the blast, authorities reportedly did not think it was
sufficient cause to disrupt the train schedule.

On the evening of the same day, another explosion occurred at a travelling
circus near the town of Pyu in Burma's central Pegu Division.  According
to the state-run mouthpiece New Light of Myanmar, the bomb exploded
prematurely while it was being set by a member of the Karen National
Union, an armed opposition group fighting the military regime.  A Karen
man was said to have been killed in the explosion and a revolver and 20
rounds of ammunition and another explosive device were found on the body,
according to the New Light.  Four civilians were injured in the blast,
including a 4-year-old boy.

Two days later a third explosion went off near the ticketing office at the
Rangoon Railway Station, injuring a woman.  The bomb was reportedly in a
drain near a toilet outside the building. The last explosion occurred on
January 16 on a bus as it pulled into a rest stop 65 kilometers north of
Rangoon.  The driver was reportedly killed.

The junta, through The New Light of Myanmar, initially claimed on January
12 that it had a "tip-off" that "insurgents have sent terrorists and
explosives to the country across the border to carry out sabotage."  It is
widely understood that the border is the one with Thailand.

The next day a longer article gave details of the second attack and blamed
both on foreigners as well as insurgents. The victim of the bomb in
Pyinmana was now said to be a bomber who was killed when her device
exploded prematurely.  According to The New Light of Myanmar, “a major
group from abroad that is desirous of practicing hegemony over Myanmar
provided terrorist insurgent saboteurs with cash and related equipment
with the intent of harming the public, causing panic among the people and
undermining peace and stability.”

The "group from abroad" is often meant to refer to the United States or
the Central Intelligence Agency, although other groups such as the
US-based National Endowment for Democracy, the Open Society Institute of
George Soros and Thailand-based exile organizations have been blamed for
disturbances and plots in the past.  The public was also called on to
report sightings of possible terrorists.

No groups have claimed responsibility for the bombings and the Karen
National Union has denied involvement.  David Taw, the KNU's Foreign
Minister, has denied that the organization has anything to do with the
attacks and Padoh Mahn Sha, the KNU's General Secretary, has stated that
it is the KNU's policy to avoid harming civilians.  He went on to say that
no orders were given for the attacks.

The junta’s accusations do not ring true with many observers.  Each year
since 1996 several bombings have taken place in central Burmese cities and
towns.  Almost every time, with a few notable exceptions, the bombs were
small, caused minimal damage and resulted in few casualties.  Almost none
of the targets had much military significance.  Foreign organizations and
individuals, political opposition groups and insurgents have always been
blamed by the regime.  Sometimes elaborate press conferences are called
with organizational charts complete with photographs attached that set out
the conspiracies against the junta.  The charges have become a joke among
Burmese exiles, and it has become something of a badge of pride to be
named.

The junta, through its spokesman Major General Kyaw Hsan, seems quite
aware of the power of the word "terrorist.” By invoking it, the regime not
only hopes to paint the opposition in a negative light domestically, but
also to reduce support for them internationally.  The term was used
extensively to justify the 2006 offensive against the KNU in Pegu Division
and Karen State.

Burma has not been the scene of a really large-scale terrorist act since
the October 1983 bombing in Rangoon that resulted in the deaths of 17
South Korean diplomats and four Burmese.  That attack was carried out by
North Korean agents trying to assassinate South Korean President Chun Doo
Hwan.

The many ethnic insurgencies in Burma, most of them defeated or in retreat
for years, have generally not used assassinations and terrorist bombings. 
The Karen themselves have suffered defeat after defeat and sources within
the Karen National Liberation Army (KNLA), the armed wing of the KNU,
which has been blamed for the recent bombings, say that it has been almost
impossible for them to operate in central Burma since the late 1980s.

Burma watchers also suspect the regime for different reasons.  On a few
occasions bombings are believed to have been the result of intramural
battles inside the junta. A December 1996 double bombing in Rangoon killed
five people and wounded 17; an April 1997 parcel bomb killed the eldest
daughter of Lt. General Tin Oo, a senior member of the junta at the time;
a second bomb that month at the elite Defense Services Academy in Maymyo
killed 15 and wounded 10 and on May 7 2005, simultaneous bombings of two
supermarkets and a convention center in Rangoon left 19 people dead and
162 injured — all were seen by analysts as the likely result of disputes
within the military, which are often put down to infighting between
factions loyal to SPDC Chairman Senior General Than Shwe and a faction
loyal to Vice Senior General Maung Aye, SPDC Vice Chairman.

The junta has also been accused of setting off bombs to distract attention
from dissent within the ranks of the military.  There is some speculation
that this may be the reason for the current series of bombs.  The harsh
crackdown against protesters in September, especially the shooting and
beating of monks, was reportedly unpopular within the officer corps. With
the Burmese military brass insisting it is the only institution that can
maintain national unity, bombings are a good way to reinforce the idea and
calm the soldiers.


>From the 1950s through the 1980s the ethnic and communist insurgencies

were strong enough to justify a large military and the army could point to
the insurgencies as a reason for maintaining control, especially after
seizing power in 1962.  Since the ceasefires of the late 1980s and early
1990s and the demise of the Burmese Communist Party, there is a less
obvious reason for the military to retain control.

The SPDC used a string of eight bombings in Pegu Division in 2006 to
justify an offensive against the remnants of the KNU in eastern Pegu
Division and northern Karen State.  At a press conference in May 2006,
several foreign diplomats and journalists were told that the offensive was
necessary to stop the KNU from carrying out "atrocities and sabotage acts"
and to "ensure the public safety."  The SPDC has quietly begun another
offensive in Karen State and the bombs may be used to justify its
counterinsurgency campaign there.

The September protests highlighted dissatisfaction with military rule and
the crackdown, which killed at least 31 persons, according to the United
Nations Special Rapporteur for Human Rights in Burma Sergio Pinheiro. 
Arrests are continuing and the bombings serve as a convenient
justification for the regime to crack down further.

Accounts from Rangoon and Pegu Division indicate that security has been
stepped up since the bombings around important buildings, shopping
centers, railway stations and the Shwedagon Pagoda, a focal point for
demonstrations.  Troops from the 77th Light Infantry Division were
reportedly patrolling the city amid rumors of possible renewed street
protests. If nothing else the bombs give the regime a reason to step up
security — another way to make it very difficult for new demonstrations to
be organized.

____________________________________
ON THE BORDER

January 22, Mizzima News
Activists concerned over Burma issue after new Thai gov - Nay Thwin

Chiang Mai – Thailand-based Burmese activists are concerned over their
campaign for Burma after the newly elected Thai government comes to power.

The military led caretaker government ended its rule after the general
elections were held on December 23, 2006 . In the election, the People's
Power Party (PPP) became the single largest party and formed a coalition
government with five other smaller parties. Thai based Burmese activists
are concerned over the future policy of the new Thai government on Burma.

"I think this winning Thai Rat Thai-turned-PPP party will pursue the
policy of former PM Thaksin, who was from the Thai Rat Thai," Dr. San
Aung, Minister of the Burmese government in exile NCGUB in Bangkok said.

Dr. San Aung was of the opinion that this new government would pursue the
policy of engagement and economic cooperation with Burma, which former
Prime Minister Thaksin did. They will build friendly relations with the
Burmese junta and are not be likely to talk about the restoration of
democracy and human rights in Burma.

However, U Myint Thein, Joint Secretary of the 'National Council of the
Union of Burma' (NCUB) said, "The political change in Thailand was done by
democratic means so, I think they will follow and respect democratic
values and practices. I also think the situation will not take a turn for
the worse as we ourselves are striving for democracy."

Meanwhile, Thai based Burmese Opposition leaders have welcomed the new
government, since they did not like the economy-oriented policy of Thaksin
while dealing with Burma.

Moreover, they foresee that the new government will not focus on the Burma
issue as they have other important domestic issues like long term
consolidation of their coalition and preventing future military coups.

At the same time, they would like to urge the new Thai government to
tackle the ongoing regional issue of influx of migrant workers into
Thailand, and the refugee and drug issue in cooperation with UN and the
international community.

The ruling PPP and its five party coalition won 315 seats out of total 480
seats in the Thailand legislature. Mr. Samak Sundaravej (72) will become
the 25th PM of Thailand at the swearing in ceremony to be held on Friday.

Since the ruling PPP party has many top leaders of the former Thai Rat
Thai party and also its top leader will-be the PM Mr. Samak Sundaravej. He
has close ties with former PM Mr. Thaksin and many speculate that the
former PM could pull strings of the new government from behind the scenes.

____________________________________

January 22, Bangkok Post
Rohingya arrested

Forty-three Rohingya, a Muslim ethnic minority in Burma, were arrested
while trying to slip into Thailand yesterday morning.

Marine police spotted a boat suspected of carrying illegal immigrants
between Lao and Mor islands in the Andaman sea about 8am.

After checking the boat, they found 43 Rohingya aged 20 to 55 years.

The boat's skipper, identified as Eno, 52, told police he and his crewmen
picked up the group from Burma's Arakan state on Jan 12.

They were to meet a Thai broker who promised to find jobs for them. All
the migrants were in police custody pending deportation.

____________________________________
BUSINESS / TRADE

January 22, Irrawaddy
Sanctions affecting Burmese gems trade – Shah Paung

The gems trade in Burma has slumped dramatically due to the sanctions
imposed by the United States in December, according to gems and jade
traders inside Burma and along the border areas.

A gems trader in the Thai-Burma border town of Mae Sot told The Irrawaddy
on Tuesday that the gems market in Mae Sot has been very quiet since for
about three months ago and since the New Year buyers have all but
disappeared.

The gems and jade market in Mae Sot it still open for business, but
vendors just spend all day sitting around waiting for buyers, he said,
adding that only small-scale purchases are been made. “Before the
sanctions, there were many buyers, including foreigners,” the trader said.
“But now, if you want to see foreigners, you’ll have to go and watch a
movie.”

He added that gems and jades traders in Bangkok told him recently that the
market is also down considerably in the Thai capital. He added that
vendors at the Mae Sot gems market rely heavily on sales to Bangkok gem
traders.

“I don’t know what to do now,” the Mae Sot trader said. “I think I’ll have
to change jobs; if business goes on like this, I’ll have to quit.”

Meanwhile, residents in Mogok in central Burma—a center for rubies—also
confirmed that their businesses were currently in a “wait and see”
situation, relying heavily on cross-border trade.

According to sources, the downturn in the gems trade has also led to
miners being laid off.

A gems trader at the China-Burma border, who mostly deals in private gems
sales, told The Irrawaddy on Tuesday that the gems market at the Chinese
border was also quiet. He said that before, even on a slow day, the market
was milling with buyers and that gemstones valued at only 1,000 Chinese
yuan (US $138) would trade hands on a daily basis.

“But now only up large sales—between 10,000 yuan ($1,380) and 50,000 yuan
($6,900)—are taking place, and those are increasingly rare,” he said.

Traders in Rangoon said that they have not been able to sell many stones
at the recent gems shows organized by the Burmese authorities.

According to the state-run newspaper The New Light of Myanmar on Sunday,
during the 24th Gems and Jade Sale in Rangoon from January 15 to 18, 2008,
357 lots of jade were sold and the event was attended by 737 local and 281
international gems and jade traders.

But the state media did not report, either in print or on television, the
profits from the gems fair.

“Usually, they [the state media] would announce the amount of sales made
and the income generated from the gems fair,” the trader in Mae Sot said.
“But this time they didn’t. It’s obvious they didn’t sell much.”

In December, the US House of Representatives imposed sanctions against
Burma’s multi-million dollar gemstone exports and the natural gas
industry, as well as freezing the assets of certain military leaders,
their families and business associates. Both Democrat and Republican
lawmakers in the US House of Representatives hailed the sanctions
legislation, called the “Block Burmese JADE (Junta’s Anti-Democratic
Efforts) Act.”

The act was aimed at preventing the Burmese military regime from
“laundering” gemstones through third countries to avoid US sanctions and
ended the tax write-offs enjoyed by US energy giant Chevron on revenues
earned from its natural gas project in Burma.
In November, the European Union also threatened to prohibit the import of
Burmese gemstones.

The Human Rights Watch group last week also called for a boycott of the
latest Burmese gem shows.

The Burmese military government received about $300 million from the sale
of gems during the fiscal year 2006-07, according to the Myanmar Gems
Enterprise. The sale of Burmese jade is one of the country’s major sources
of foreign exchange.

____________________________________

January 22, Irrawaddy
Burma looks to ‘liberalize’ fuel imports – Violet Cho

Due to the continued increase in global fuel prices, the Burmese military
government has “liberalized” trade by permitting the private sector to
import fuel. Burmese economists dismiss the move as ineffective for
Burmese consumers.

The Burmese junta recently announced that it would permit private
businesses to seek fuel imports through the Trade Council, the country’s
highest authority in terms of importing and exporting, according to local
weekly Myanmar Times.

Under the existing procedure, only two companies—Union of Myanmar Economic
Holding Ltd, a military generals’ syndicate, and Tay Za’s Htoo Trading
Company—are allowed to import fuel.

Burmese economists believe that the military regime will allow so-called
“private” companies to import fuel as a strategy to use the private
companies as a source of hard cash or foreign currency, which is in great
shortage in Burma.

“The government requires more hard currency, so they use private
companies—which have their own hard currency in foreign banks—to solve
their problems,” US-based Burmese economist, Sein Htay, told The Irrawaddy
on Tuesday.

The economist also claimed the junta is currently facing problems with a
lack of hard cash/ foreign currency since economic sanctions and banking
surveillance was imposed by the United States government in December.

The US House of Representatives imposed sanctions against the Burmese
military government, including the freezing of military officials’ bank
accounts, following the junta’s brutal crackdown on peaceful protesters
and monks in September.

The Burmese regime holds a monopoly on the sale of fuel in the country and
regularly subsidizes prices. In August, the government raised the price of
fuel from 1,500 kyat ($ 1.20) per imperial gallon to 3,000 kyat ($2.40)
for diesel; and from 1,500 kyat to 2,500 kyat ($2) per gallon for
gasoline.

Since then, black market fuel prices have been as high as 4,800 kyat
($3.84) per gallon for diesel and 4,600 kyat ($3.68) for a gallon of
gasoline.

The massive price hikes sparked demonstrations that quickly grew into an
anti-government uprising, as the increased fuel prices affected commuters
in vital areas, such as public transport and the price of basic consumer
goods.

According to the Ministry of Energy, Burma produces some 80 million
gallons of diesel every year for domestic use, but, over the last few
years, has had to import about 330 million gallons of the fuel every year
from neighbouring Southeast Asian countries, Malaysia, Thailand and
Singapore.

Meanwhile, there have been rumours and allegations surrounding fuel
rationing since the beginning of the year. The government recently
announced that it would continue to conserve two gallons of fuel per
vehicle per day for all vehicles in Rangoon.

However, Zaw Oo, a Burmese economist based in Washington, said that
“government privatization will intensify the already high inflation that
people are encountering at the moment.”

According to the Economic Intelligence Unit, a global economic think tank,
annual inflation in Burma hit 50 percent by the end of 2007, but should
ease back to around 30-40 percent in 2008/09.

As global fuel prices increase, it is imperative that the state takes
measures to solve the problem through subsidizing the import of fuel and
selling it back to the public at a lower price,” said Zaw Oo.
“Privatization is not the correct approach currently for economic reform
in Burma.”

____________________________________
HEALTH / AIDS

January 22, Irrawaddy
Minister hails Burmese medicines ‘best in Southeast Asia’ – Wai Moe

Burma is producing the best pharmaceuticals in all Southeast Asia,
according to Minister of Industry-1 Aung Thaung.

Although the country has one of the world’s worst health care records,
Aung Thaung boasted at a factory-opening ceremony that medicines produced
by the country’s pharmaceutical sector “have been ranked the best ones in
Southeast Asia.” He did not say who had done the ranking.

Aung Thaung was opening a new pharmaceuticals plant in Kyaukse, home town
of junta leader Snr-Gen Than Shwe. Prime Minister Gen Thein Sein also
attended, and the two conducted a tour of Kyaukse’s industrial zone.

The ceremony was given front-page coverage in the government mouthpiece,
The New Light of Myanmar on Monday.

The newspaper quoted Aung Thaung as saying: “The government has laid down
and is implementing the national policy which calls for enabling the
entire people to enjoy longevity and ensuring development of economic,
social and health sectors and producing more productive forces.

“In that regard, it has produced medicine of high quality in line with GMP
(Good Manufacturing Practices). The medicines produced by MPF (Myanmar
Pharmaceutical Factory) have been ranked the best ones in Southeast Asia.”

The boast is being taken lightly by Burma analysts, who point out that the
regime devotes about 0.1 percent of its annual budget to health care. The
country’s instances of such diseases as HIV/AIDS, tuberculosis and malaria
are among the world’s highest.

Kyaukse, with a population of around 50,000, has a large industrial zone
thanks to its association with Than Shwe. Burma’s late dictator, Ne Win,
bestowed similar patronage on his home town, Paungtalai, in Pegu Division,
and the home town of former Prime Minister Khin Nyunt, Kyaunktan, in
Rangoon Division, benefited in the same way.

____________________________________
ASEAN

January 22, Philippine Daily Inquirer
‘ASEAN massage parlor’ – John Nery

Surin Pitsuwan, the new ASEAN secretary-general, is an academic and a
diplomat, but it may be for his skills as a politician that he was chosen
to lead the regional grouping’s permanent secretariat. The Ph.D. from
Harvard and former foreign minister of Thailand was elected to parliament
nine times in the last 20-odd years. Now, as ASEAN’s fourth
secretary-general, he has the opportunity to lead the association into a
new era of community-building.

First things first. “They would like a stronger secretariat,” he said at a
journalists’ forum in Bangkok on Sunday. He was referring to ASEAN’s 10
heads of government, and their expansive idea of his job description. It
is true, he said, that he is the first politician to assume the
Jakarta-based post.

“What would be the difference in the running of that nerve center [in
Jakarta]?” He answered his own question: “I will do what politicians do
best: energize, create a sense of belonging.” And promote a sense of the
possible.

He drew a vivid picture of what he said will become “a network
secretariat” during his term, “reaching out, roping in and working with”
anyone who understands the role ASEAN can play in Asia.

But while Surin talks a good game (he is quite eloquent when it comes to
vision-setting), the reality is that much of the agenda he will face in
his five-year term (it ends in 2012) has already been set.

Case in point: His first official trip as secretary-general was a
ministerial meeting in Naypyidaw, the capital-in-the-making of Burma
(Myanmar). Despite all the talk of community-building, brutal, repressive
Burma remains ASEAN’s odd man out. One truth of politics: There is a limit
to everything, even constructive engagement.

On Burma, Surin waxes and wanes. He is optimistic that, with ASEAN in its
current state of evolution, “there is a very, very strong spirit of
democracy in the system already.” He is sanguine about the prospects of a
consolidating ASEAN, through the use of the proposed Charter (a document
which Singapore has signed, but which the Philippines has threatened to
reject, because of Aung San Suu Kyi’s continuing detention). He even
offers a timetable for greater consolidation. “We want to do it by 2015,
seven years from now.”

At the same time, he is realistic about the difficulty ASEAN finds itself
in. “We ran into a stalemate,” he said, referring to the ultimately failed
efforts to avert and then to mitigate Burma’s violent crackdown on protest
actions late last year.

He spoke of a recent meeting with the Sultan of Brunei, where the Burma
problem was discussed and his proposals were sought. His reply: “Your
Majesty, I don’t know my role in this issue.”

“I’m still trying to find out my space,” he told the journalists gathered
in Bangkok. “Is the secretary-general expected to play that role [of
engaging Burma]?”

Ever the politician, he makes or rather suggests a prediction about the
eventual resolution of ASEAN’s Burma problem: “I think it will come [down]
to [the use of] regional mechanisms.”

A sense of humor is one of Surin’s winning points. He spoke about how,
after he was appointed secretary-general, he became more conscious of
everything ASEAN. Once, somewhere in Pattaya, he saw a sign that began
with “ASEAN.” Back up, he told his driver. I want to know what the sign
says. Well, he certainly found out. The sign read: “ASEAN massage parlor.”

A victory for consolidation.

____________________________________
REGIONAL

January 22, Reuters
China urges Burma to set date for Gambari – Lindsay Beck and Aung Hla Tun

China, one of the Burma's few friends, urged the ruling generals on
Tuesday to allow UN special envoy Ibrahim Gambari back soon to promote a
genuine dialogue between the junta and opposition.

Gambari said last week the regime was trying to delay his third visit
since a September crackdown on protests, which he hoped would be this
month, until April.

"We support UN Special Envoy Gambari and his efforts," Foreign Ministry
spokeswoman Jiang Yu told a news conference.

"We hope Mr Gambari and Myanmar [Burma] can, through communications, set a
timetable for Mr Gambari's visit to Myanmar."

The comments followed talks on Monday in Beijing between Chinese State
Councillor Tang Jiaxuan and Burma Deputy Foreign Minister Maung Myint, who
was sent as a special envoy of Prime Minister Gen Thein Sein.

The 15-member UN Security Council, including China, criticized Burma last
week for dragging its feet on the release of political prisoners and
substantive talks with the opposition.

But China, which has interests in the former Burma's natural gas and
timber, repeated its position on Tuesday that it would not back sanctions
as a means to force the generals into reform.

"The international community should give an objective view of the efforts
made by the Myanmar government and give constructive help to Myanmar,"
Jiang said.

"I don't think sanctions and applying pressure are helpful to the
resolution of the issues."

Gambari, who has said he wants to see concrete action from countries which
have economic clout with Burma, is set to visit China and India this
month.

Jiang also defended China's trade ties with Burma, whose leadership
cracked down last September on pro-democracy protests that were
spearheaded by Buddhist monks.

"Our cooperation is on the basis of equality and mutual benefit and is not
related with the interests of any third party," she said.

Burma's official media have said nothing about Maung Myint's trip, but
diplomats said they did not expect a great deal from it.

"You can't expect any country, including China, to play that big a role in
this country," a Southeast Asian diplomat said. "Chinese influence on the
regime is limited. All they can do is make suggestions and offer some
help".

Burma's military rulers ignored an overwhelming election win by Aung San
Suu Kyi's National League for Democracy in 1990 and the Nobel Peace Prize
winner has spent most of her time in detention since then.

____________________________________
INTERNATIONAL

January 22, Associated Press
China says no to pressure on Myanmar - Christopher Bodeen

China on Tuesday rejected U.S. demands for stepped-up pressure on Myanmar,
whose governing junta has been accused of spurning real dialogue with the
pro-democracy opposition.

Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Jiang Yu said China wanted to see stability,
democracy and development in the country also known as Burma.

However, Jiang urged the international community to be "objective when
viewing the Myanmar situation ... and provide constructive assistance."

China objects to Western criticisms of the military regime, claiming that
conditions in Myanmar have improved dramatically since a violent crackdown
on peaceful protests in September.

"I don't think sanctions are helpful," Jiang told reporters at a regularly
scheduled news conference.

Myanmar's military rulers say 10 people were killed when civilians and
Buddhist monks were beaten and arrested after pro-democracy demonstrations
following a sharp fuel price hike. Diplomats and dissidents put the toll
much higher.

Jiang's comments come a day after a senior U.S. official urged the
international community to put more pressure on the junta, and said
Washington had asked China to help arrange for a new visit to Myanmar by
U.N. Security Council envoy Ibrahim Gambari to help push for national
reconciliation.

They also follow a meeting in Beijing between senior Chinese foreign
policy adviser Tang Jiaxuan and Myanmar Deputy Foreign Minister U Maung
Myint.

China's official Xinhua News Agency said U Maung Myint told Tang that
Myanmar was "making efforts to realize national reconciliation and
accelerate democratic progress."

Jiang said China supported Gambari's work and wanted a timetable set for
his next visit to Myanmar. Gambari had wanted to visit later this month,
but received a letter from Myanmar's government requesting that he come in
April.

China is one of Myanmar's biggest trading partners and closest diplomatic
allies. Other nations have repeatedly expressed hopes Beijing would
leverage those ties to press the junta to open a dialogue with the
opposition.

Beijing has shown little willingness to do so, although in October, China
joined other Security Council members in calling on the regime to release
political prisoners and improve human rights.

Washington has placed economic sanctions on Myanmar that include a
complete ban on the import of the country's products and the freezing of
some junta officials' financial assets in U.S. territories.

China, however, has moved to step up economic links, including development
of natural gas deposits in the Bay of Bengal.

Last month, China National Petroleum Corp., the country's biggest oil and
gas producer, took a further step toward building a pipeline to transport
oil from Myanmar's western port of Sittwe to the southwestern Chinese
province of Yunnan.

____________________________________

January 22, Agence-France Press
Myanmar going 'downhill on all fronts,' says US

Myanmar is going "downhill on all fronts," a senior US diplomat said
during a visit to Vietnam Monday, urging regional neighbours to pressure
the junta running the country formerly called Burma.

"The regime in Burma is absolutely refusing to take any positive steps at
all, either in response to its own people or to the international
community," said US Deputy Assistant Secretary of State Scot Marciel.

"It should be a cause of concern for everybody because the way Burma is
going under this regime and its policies is sort of downhill on all
fronts," he told a media briefing during a Hanoi stop on a regional tour.

"We talk about it mostly in terms of human rights and democracy and that's
critically important to us, but it's beyond that," he said. "The economy
is going downhill, the education system is getting ruined.

"The health care system isn't functioning, ... you're getting more and
more cases of resistant strains of tuberculosis and malaria out of Burma.
You've got refugee flows out of Burma. It's just a whole series of
problems."

Myanmar faces mounting pressure for democratic reform after its crackdown
on peaceful protests led by Buddhist monks last September triggered
widespread international outrage and tighter Western sanctions.

The United Nations says at least 31 people were killed during the
suppression of the protests, and 74 remain missing.

Marciel said he had spoken about Myanmar with officials in Tokyo, Phnom
Penh and Hanoi and would also raise the topic in Bangkok and Vientiane
soon, urging all governments to push for change.

"Our sense is that there is no easy solution, but for Burma to begin to
turn around in a very general sense, it's not really going to happen and
can't really happen under this regime," he said.

"They just don't have the wherewithal, they have got no popular support,
no legitimacy and frankly not very many good ideas."

Marciel said the junta, by allowing a UN mediator to visit after the
crackdown, and holding limited dialogue with the opposition, "took a few
little steps early on... and basically nothing since then."

"So our message is, going back to business as usual isn't really a very
good option because the problems, the root causes that led to the protests
and the violence in September haven't been addressed at all."

The regime needed to start serious talks with the opposition leader, he
said, adding that "taking Aung San Suu Kyi away from house arrest once
every two months for an hour meeting isn't a dialogue."

Marciel said the international community needed to keep up the pressure.

"Everybody says they weighed in diplomatically -- the Indians, the
Chinese, the ASEANs (Association of Southeast Asian Nations members). What
we're saying is, please keep doing it. A one-time weigh-in isn't so
helpful."

____________________________________
OPINION / OTHER

January 22, Irrawaddy
Who can rescue Nilar Thein? – Kyaw Zwa Moe

Who remembers her now? Actually, she was well-known about four months ago.
But today few seem to remember her. Four months is a long time in today’s
fast-moving world.

Nilar Thein is a fugitive with a price on her head. She has been hiding in
different locations in Rangoon since September when Burma’s military
authorities began hunting down activists who led demonstrations in August
and September.

If that’s not reason enough to feel sorry for the 35-year-old activist,
her whole family is also suffering along with her.

Her husband Kyaw Min Yu, known as Jimmy, is in the notorious Insein
Prison. A prominent activist since 1988 and a leading member of the 88
Generation Students group, he played a prominent role in the first street
demonstrations in Rangoon in August.

Nilar Thein’s 9-month-old daughter, Nay Kyi Min Yu, has been living with
her grandparents. Her grandparents say she is doing well, but she doesn’t
experience the protective, loving kindness of her parents.

The daughter is taken to the prison occasionally to visit her father. But
she hasn’t touched her mother in the past months.

If that’s not enough, Nilar Thein spent eight years in jail from 1996 to
2003 for her political activity. Her husband spent 16 years in prison
after the 1988 pro-democracy uprising.

Nilar Thein told The Irrawaddy in a conversation from where her hiding
place, “I love my daughter like any mother. I had to leave her, but I
believe she will later understand why.”

Her husband is likely to receive another long prison sentence, as Nilar
Thein continues to try to evade the security forces.

Can you imagine a beautiful end to this sad story?

Do you believe the ruling generals will stop their oppression?  Do you
believe the United Nations can achieve change in Burma? Do you believe
Burma’s neighbors will truly seek change in Burma?

The UN Special Envoy to Burma, Ibrahim Gambari, said in a recent interview
with Newsweek magazine, “I don’t have the instruments to change the
regime.”

Yes, true regime change is hard to imagine. “The UN is not in the business
of changing regimes,” Gambari said. Yes that’s true.

So what about one, single issue: the release of political prisoners,
including Aung San Suu Kyi?

Gambari attempted that, but again, with no success.

“The release of Aung San Suu Kyi and the other political prisoners is long
overdue,” the envoy said in the interview.

But the junta hasn’t budged, sticking closely to its “seven-step road
map,” which is intended to install the military institution legally as the
legitimate government of Burma.

Can you imagine political reconciliation? “It’s long overdue,” said
Gambari. Opposition groups and the international community have called for
reconciliation since the junta took power 20 years ago, especially after
Suu Kyi’s party, the National League for Democracy, won the 1990 election
by a landslide.

Can you imagine a true dialogue between the junta and the opposition?

Gambari said, “If they [talks] were combined with real engagement and with
some incentives at the appropriate time, they could work.” To try to
achieve dialogue, sanctions have been imposed by the United States and the
European Union since the mid-1990s. Still, it’s hard to imagine sanctions
working because Burma’s two biggest neighbors, China and India, and the
Association of Southeast Asian Nations remain opposed.

How about the world’s super power, the US? In a recent trip to Hanoi, US
Deputy Assistant Secretary of State Scott Marciel said Burma is going
“downhill on all fronts.”

“The economy is going downhill, the education system is getting ruined,”
he said. “The health care system isn’t functioning
you’re getting more and
more cases of resistant strains of tuberculosis and malaria out of Burma.
You’ve got refugee flows out of Burma. It’s just a whole series of
problems.”

The US is the strongest critic of the Burmese regime and recently it
imposed new sanctions targeted at the generals, their family and business
cronies. But it doesn’t have any real means to change the regime or open
its prisons or get the generals to sit down and talk to opposition and
ethnic leaders. It might be another story if Burma were in Middle East,
perhaps.

So, how can Nilar Thein, and the Burmese people be saved?

You can imagine only one person who could save Nilar Thein—Rambo.

____________________________________

January 22, Mizzima News
Can the U.N. change the mindset of the generals? - Dr. Sein Myint

When asked why he does not protest more strongly against his father's role
in the killing of civilians, Omar bin Laden said that it is up to
religious clerics close to his father, Osama bin Laden, to tell him to
change his tactics in the name of Islam. However, Omar added that even if
that unlikely scenario were to occur, al-Qaeda still would not cease in
operating as it does.

A similar question may be asked of the U.N.'s role in Burma. Can simply
recommending to the generals that they alter their ways lead to any
fundamental changes in how they govern Burma?

The Burmese junta thrives on fear tactics and intimidation directed
against the Burmese people while rewarding civilian collaborators and
cohorts with money and status for their thuggish work at local levels. At
the national level, SPDC members, army commanders and cabinet ministers
revel in a luxurious lifestyle made possible from wealth accumulated
through the plunder of the national economy.

In a recent interview with Newsweek, U.N. Special Envoy to Burma Ibrahim
Gambari stressed that his job is not to change the regime but rather to
change the behavior of the ruling generals and assist the country in
achieving genuine national reconciliation, inclusive of all political
stakeholders in Burma.

Do Mr. Gambari and the U.N. sincerely believe that these Generals will
give up the golden opportunities they are enjoying now and share power
with the democratic opposition which they detest so much? Do he and the
U.N. truly believe that they can help change the rogue behavior and
mindset of the hardline generals in Burma through mere suggestions?

The generals will, presumably, give up power in only two scenarios: either
because they are forced to do so, or, if they are bought off with enough
incentives. But Mr. Gambari and the U.N. have no power or leverage to
present these options to the generals. Maybe, in order to accomplish the
mission, it is time for Mr. Gambari and the U.N. to change tactics or
replace their current Burmese advisors and experts.