BurmaNet News, February 8, 2008

[Editor]

February 8, 2008 Issue # 3398

INSIDE BURMA
Irrawaddy: New campaign to boycott Burmese businesses
Mizzima News: Burmese Weekly Kumudra suspends publication for two weeks
DVB: Magwe NLD members stopped from travelling

HEALTH / AIDS
Mizzima News: Junta combats UNICEF data with dated government statistics
Irrawaddy: HIV film wins Burma’s Oscar
Irrawaddy: Counterfeit anti-malarial drugs sold in Shan State

REGIONAL
Asia Times: UN as India, Myanmar matchmaker
AFP: New Thai PM urges UN chief to visit Myanmar
Irrawaddy: Burmese ask if politics and Olympics mix

INTERNATIONAL
CFI News: Christian Freedom International calls for universal attention on
Burma

OPINION / OTHER
DVB: A limited time to play - Nyo Ohn Myint
Irrawaddy: Don’t shoot the messenger [Editorial]
Mizzima News: Why sanctions fail - Bo Kyaw Nyein [Analysis]
International Herald Tribute: Are sanctions the answer? - Stanley A. Weiss

____________________________________
INSIDE BURMA

February 8, Irrawaddy
New campaign to boycott Burmese businesses - Min Lwin and Violet Cho

Despite the fact the United States government imposed additional sanctions
on the Burmese military junta and its cronies recently, underground
activists have initiated a campaign to boycott any goods believed to be
linked with the regime.

Anonymous leaflets were spread around Rangoon this week calling on Burmese
citizens to boycott businesses belonging to cronies and supporters of the
regime. The leaflets accused the military authorities of bullying the
ordinary people of Burma and making them slaves of the junta.

The proposed items for boycott include Myanmar Beer, Dagon Beer, London
Cigarettes and Vegas Cigarettes, the state-owned Aung Bar Lay Lottery and
all donut shops believed to be owned by relatives of the military leaders.

Myanmar Beer, Dagon Beer, London Cigarettes and Vegas Cigarettes are
monopolized by the Union of Myanmar Economic Holdings Company Limited
(UMEH).

UMEH is a military conglomerate. Shares in the holding company are held by
members of the Ministry of Defense and the armed forces. Its board of
directors is comprised of senior military officers.

J’ Donuts coffee shops are a popular chain in Rangoon and are believed to
be owned by Kyaing San Shwe, the son of Snr-Gen Than Shwe.

The usual suspect on all sanctions targets, Htoo Trading Company Limited,
is also on the boycott list.  The Chief Executive Officer of Htoo Trading
Company Limited is the notorious Burmese businessman, Tay Za. Three
companies and two individuals that have close connections to Tay Za were
also added to the list for targeted sanctions.

Other persons singled out for targeted sanctions include the spouses of
senior officials of the military junta.

Interestingly, government newspapers The New Light of Myanmar, The Mirror
and two privately run journals, Nan Myint and Snaphot, were on the boycott
list. Snaphot is owned by publisher Myat Khaing who is a close associate
of Brig-Gen Kyaw Hsan, the minister for information.

Despite the bold moves, reaction from people in Burma has been mixed.

The Irrawaddy spoke to residents in Rangoon, Arakan State, Kachin State,
Sagaing Division and Mandalay to sound out their opinion on the fresh
boycott call by an underground group in Burma.

A beer shop owner in Sagaing who had not seen the leaflets said: “Burmese
people don’t dare take part in this recent boycott campaign.

“We can’t even boycott Chinese products because we depend on Chinese
toothpaste every morning,” he explained.

The general manager of an employment agency in Rangoon said, “It is not
possible for Burmese people to boycott these products. If you don’t want
to smoke London cigarettes, do you have any other choice?”

“I don’t think it will have any effect,” said Ko Ye, a tourist guide from
Rangoon. “We don’t have anything to replace these products if we boycott
them.”

Speaking to The Irrawaddy by telephone on Friday, a businessman who runs
an oil and diesel retailers in Rangoon said, “We have no other choice for
beer and cigarettes in Burma. We have long been using these products to
relax and release tension.” He added that it would be impossible to
boycott these products “if we are left with nothing.”

A writer and critic in Rangoon said, “I don’t think the boycott will be
effective, because all the listed products are used by people around the
country.”

He also said that it was difficult to find business and companies that
have no connections with the military authorities.

A senior editor who publishes a monthly magazine in Rangoon said, “It is a
good idea as a people’s movement, but it’s not practical. I think more
people will join the boycott movement if it is beneficial to the people.”

However, a Kachin man living in Lai Zar, along the Kachin-Chinese border,
backed the boycott campaign.

“I agree that we have to boycott these companies and firms that are close
to the military regime,” he said. “Supporting them keeps the regime in
power.”

____________________________________

February 8, Mizzima News
Burmese Weekly Kumudra suspends publication for two weeks - Solomon

A Rangoon based Burmese weekly journal, Kumudra, has suspended its
publication for two weeks, an official at the Weekly said.

Publication of the weekly journal has been temporarily suspended as the
Weekly is awaiting permission from the authorities to allow an addition to
the name of the paper, the official said.

While not revealing the additional name that is to be added, the official
said, "We have been awaiting permission from the authorities about adding
a new name on the old one and after that we will start publishing our
journal again."

While the official reason for suspending publication for two weeks, since
February 1, seems to be normal in Burma, where authorities have a tight
control over the right to print journals, a Rangoon based journal editor
said Kumudra has been facing a problem in renewing its license.

An editor of a Rangoon based journal, who wished not to be named, said
Kumudra has been facing a problem in renewing its license as the license
holder asked for a heftier sum to renew it.

"We heard that they have a problem with the person who owned the journal
license but I am not sure of it," said the editor.

In Burma, several Weekly journals run their papers on rented license, as
the license to print is mostly given to close relatives or friends of the
authorities. Most publishers, who are unable to obtain a license
themselves, act on rented license, which is normally leased out for a
year, with the price depending on negotiations.

The information, however, could not be independently verified.

____________________________________

February 8, Democratic Voice of Burma
Magwe NLD members stopped from travelling

Local authorities in Magwe division tried to prevent six National League
for Democracy members from travelling to Yay Nan Chaung for a religious
ceremony on 4 February.

Dr Aung Moe Nyo, an NLD member and people’s parliament representative from
Pwint Phyu township, was travelling with Saku township NLD member Ko Nay
Myo Kyaw and four other NLD members to Yay Nan Chaung to attend a Buddhist
ordination ceremony.

But Nay Myo Kyaw said that the group faced harassment from the authorities
when they tried to cross the river to get to Yay Nan Chaung.

“When we arrived at the jetty, Kone Saung police chief U Sein Win,
district special police officer Ko Myint Thu and his informer Ko San Wai
were there and they made the boatmen to sign an agreement promising not to
take NLD members across the river,” Nay Myo Kyaw said.

“They told the boatmen that if they violated the agreement that would face
legal sanctions,” he said.

After they were refused passage at the first jetty, the group walked along
the road to other villages to try to find a boat, but at each jetty the
boatmen had been warned not to take them.

At one village they found a boatman who agreed to take them, but when they
were half-way across the river the officials came and called the boat back
to shore.

The group eventually managed to find a boatwoman who agreed to ferry them
across to Yay Nan Chaung, but the boatwoman and her two family members
were then arrested at 10am on 5 February and taken to Salin police
station.

According to a Salin township NLD member, speaking on condition of
anonymity, the boatwoman and her two family members were detained
overnight at the police station and released yesterday.

Dr Aung Moe Nyo and five other NLD members previously faced harassment
from the authorities when they tried to travel to Yay Nan Chaung for
independence day celebrations.

The group was detained on 2 January to prevent them attending the event,
and the jetty was closed all day on 3 January to stop any other NLD
members from crossing the river.

Dr Aung Moe Nyo claimed that while in detention he overheard Peace and
Development Council chairman U Hla Htay instructing the police official
interrogating the group to keep the pressure on them and to use harsher
means to prevent them from attending the celebrations.

____________________________________
HEALTH / AIDS

February 8, Mizzima News
Junta combats UNICEF data with dated government statistics

The Burmese government has questioned the accuracy of a recent
international study which found a high child mortality rate inside the
country.

The United Nations Children's Fund (UNICEF) published a figure in their
annual report, released two-weeks ago, of an estimated child mortality
rate nearly 60 percent higher than a figure quoted Wednesday by Burma's
Minister for Health, Dr. Kyaw Myint.

"Although UNICEF stated in the report that there were 104 deaths out of
1,000 under-five children in Myanmar, WHO (SEARO) issued that the
mortality rate of Myanmar stood at 66.1 every 1,000," stated yesterday's
New Light of Myanmar, referring to the Minister's address. "Hence, it can
be seen that there were some discrepancies between the two UN
organizations."

However, the discrepancy arises primarily as a result of procedural
differences.

The WHO-SEARO statistic referenced in the government daily comes from a
2004 study that drew its figures solely from statistics compiled by
Burma's Central Statistics Organization and Department of Health.

In contrast, UNICEF states its figures are "based on the work of the
Inter-agency Group for Child Mortality Estimation, which includes UNICEF,
the World Health Organization (WHO), the World Bank and the United Nations
Population Division."

On May 26, 2004, the Office for the High Commissioner for Human Rights
directly referenced the WHO-SEARO report, stating, "A recent survey by the
Ministry of Health indicated that the under-five mortality rate was 66.1
per 1,000 live births."

The statistic given in the WHO-SEARO paper is for the year 2003, whereas
UNICEF's latest estimates are based on 2006.

Additionally, the UNICEF figure is a projection as opposed to a historical
statistic. The under-five child mortality rate, as calculated by UNICEF,
estimates the number of fatalities to occur if the current situation and
factors inside the country remain static over the ensuing five years.

The discrepancy in procedure can also partially be explained as resulting
from the widely independent day-to-day operations of WHO's regional
offices in relation to the overarching international body itself.

WHO's estimates concur almost exactly with those of UNICEF. WHO's
estimated child mortality rate for Burma in 2005 differed by only one to
that of UNICEF's, 104 per 1,000 live births as opposed to 105.

Despite questioning the accuracy of UNICEF's child mortality figure, the
Minister for Health, speaking Wednesday, told an audience in Naypyitaw
that the Burmese government looks forward to joining hands with United
Nations agencies and non-governmental organizations to confront the health
needs of Burmese citizens.

UNICEF argues that the primary cause of the deplorable condition for
children in Burma results from chronic economic and development failures.
The report goes on to note that diseases leading to the deaths of Burmese
children are mostly curable, including respiratory infections, pneumonia
and diarrhea.

____________________________________

February 8, Irrawaddy
HIV film wins Burma’s Oscar – Aye Lae

A topical film about people living with the HIV virus won the prize for
best Burmese picture at Burma’s equivalent of the US Academy Awards on
Thursday night.

Burma’s version of the best picture Oscar went to
“Hmyaw-lint-gyin-myar-swar” (“With much hope”), while its director, Maung
Myo Min (Yin Twin Phyit), won the best director award.

Nanda Hlaing won the best actress award and Yan Aung was chosen best actor.

Eight of the 11 films produced in Burma last year won awards. In 2005, 11
of the 16 films made that year garnered awards.

The awards were presented for the second consecutive year in Burma’s new
capital,
Naypyidaw.

In a speech at the awards ceremony, Information Minister Brig-Gen Kyaw
Hsan called for the adoption of digital filmmaking in order to penetrate
lucrative foreign markets.

Critics point out that Burma’s film industry is in the doldrums, with very
few profitable films, cinemas struggling to survive and artistic standards
at an all-time low. Actor, comedian and social critic Zarganar said:
"First priority should be focused on how we can improve the quality of
Burmese films. There are fewer and fewer moviegoers in the cinemas."

The Burmese movie industry has a long history dating back to the 1910s. In
its heyday, about 80 movies were produced annually, some of them jointly
with foreign production companies.

____________________________________

February 8, Irrawaddy
Counterfeit anti-malarial drugs sold in Shan State

The central market in Kengtung, the capital of eastern Shan State, is a
beehive of commercial activity in the mornings, reflecting the cultural
kaleidoscope of Burma’s frontier.

Although most people speak Tai Khün, which is closely related to northern
Thai, you can hear smatterings of Chinese, Thai, Burmese and other
languages among the stalls that sell all manner of goods, mostly from
China: food, books, clothing, bags, toys, electronics and, frequently,
medications.

Stalls selling the latter offer a range of multi-colored pills in clear
plastic bags arranged on wooden trays or in plastic baskets with no
indication of what they are, where they were produced, instructions for
their use or warnings—or an expiration date.

Others medicines are sold in their manufacturers’ packages, complete with
labels detailing the standard, prescribed information and seals of
authenticity.  However, these medicines may be just as dangerous as the
unlabeled variety.

Two different batches of the drug artesunate, now a standard treatment for
Plasmodium falciparum malaria, the most dangerous type of malaria, were
recently obtained in Kengtung and sent to the United States Center for
Disease Control and Prevention in Atlanta, Georgia.

The agency tested the drugs for safety and quality in January 2008.  The
analysis of both batches confirmed them to be counterfeit, containing no
active drug.  Although fake artesunate has been discovered in Burma, with
one analysis documenting that over one-fifth of such drugs in Burma were
fake, this was the first time these counterfeit drugs have been confirmed
in Kengtung.

The analysis report said, “They [the tablets] contained no measurable
amount of the active ingredient artesunate.  The tablets weighed much more
than the comparable genuine Guilin tablets
 [and were] much harder to
manually split in two
 these samples are definite fakes.  It is almost
impossible to distinguish fakes from genuine based on package appearance.”

The source of these fake drugs is not known, and they have also been
discovered for sale along the Thailand-Burma border.

Many physicians say the Burmese health system has collapsed, another
casualty of the successive military governments that have ruled the
country for decades.

The current Burmese junta, the State Peace and Development Council (SPDC),
spends 40 US cents per person per year on health (Thailand’s equivalent
figure is $61) which, in conjunction with isolation, censorship and
widespread human rights abuses, “have rendered Burma’s health care system
incapable of responding effectively to endemic and emerging infectious
diseases,” according to “The Gathering Storm,” a report published by the
University of California (Berkeley) and Johns Hopkins University in 2007.

Malaria, in particular, is a top cause of morbidity and mortality in the
region, and 70 percent of Burma’s population live in malaria-endemic
areas, overwhelmingly along the country’s frontiers, and almost 75 percent
of Burma’s reported cases of malaria are due to Plasmodium falciparum.

Moreover, Burma is an epicenter for multi-drug resistant strains of
malaria that require a combination therapy with artesunate to be treated
effectively. According to World Health Organization figures, almost 90
percent of Burma’s total health expenditures are borne privately, usually
paid for out-of-pocket, making visits to healthcare services a luxury for
most Burmese, particularly given the worsening poverty and runaway
inflation which, at 35 percent a year, is the highest in Asia.

“People have to buy all their drugs and pay for investigation charges,”
noted a Burmese physician, forced into exile in Thailand after
participating in the Saffron Revolution in September 2007.

“They have to pay for the services of hospital staff like dressings,
injections, wheelchairs and even the unofficial entrance fee
 [the]
majority of people in Burma rely on betel shops, drug stores, quacks and
traditional healers and as a result, there are unnecessary morbidities and
mortalities.”

Lack of regulatory oversight and widespread corruption continue to fuel
the production and sale of counterfeit drugs such as artesunate, packaged
almost identically as the genuine product, increasing unnecessary sickness
and death.  And, with these fakes being sold more cheaply than the
authentic drug amidst an economy that continues to deteriorate, the
counterfeit drugs remain popular.

“The tragedy with these fake drugs is that Burmese people will use their
limited resources to buy them for themselves and their families and still
get no relief—and falciparum malaria can be rapidly fatal,” noted Dr.
Chris Beyrer of the Johns Hopkins University.  “This form of criminal
forgery can lead to loss of life, and it can lead to the generation of
resistant malaria strains which could threaten the health of people across
the malaria zones of Asia.  The government of Myanmar and its partners
should be addressing this problem with due diligence.”

The author is a physician based in Chiang Mai who works on the
Thailand-Burma border.

____________________________________
REGIONAL

February 8, Asia Times
UN as India, Myanmar matchmaker - Jyoti Malhotra

India has quietly undertaken a charm offensive with Myanmar's ruling
junta, just months after New Delhi had publicly joined hands with Western
governments to chastise the military regime for cracking down brutally
against protesting monks and pro-democracy agitators in the old capital of
Yangon.

Despite widespread criticism of its diplomatic and commercial gambit,
India's conciliatory approach now has the backing of the United Nations,
which is leading so far unsuccessful mediation efforts between the junta
and the pro-democracy opposition led by Aung San Suu Kyi.

As the world watched in horror, saffron-robed monks, dressed in



the color of sacrifice, marched through the streets with their begging
bowls turned downwards. That gesture of self-denial and abnegation, on par
with the fasts Mahatma Gandhi often undertook to purify himself, as well
as the enemy, sent a collective shudder across major world capitals.

The September protests and the government's crackdown have now faded from
international headlines. And in the coming days, the Indian government is
set to send a high-level team to meet the top military establishment in
Naypidaw, Myanmar's new secluded capital city.

Meanwhile, General Maung Aye, the number two ranking officer in the State
Peace and Development Council (SPDC), seems all set to visit India in
April. So what accounts for Delhi's newfound diplomatic derring-do?

Indian officials confirm that the junta's decision in early January to
allow India to develop the strategically-located port of Sittwe in
Myanmar's western Arakan province, at a cool cost of US$120 million, has
much to do with the turnaround.

To India, the Sittwe award comes at a time when New Delhi has been
particularly rattled by China's so-called "string of pearls" strategy,
that envisages a series of ports and bases built in friendly countries -
such as Pakistan and Myanmar - to safeguard the country's energy shipments
from the Middle East.

Towards that end, the Chinese in recent months completed the Gwadar warm
water port off the Balochistan coast in Pakistan. In Myanmar, the Chinese
have leveraged their friendly status with the ruling generals to variously
build radar, refit and refueling facilities in the Coco Islands, Hianggyi
and Khaukphyu.

As such, Myanmar's decision to allow New Delhi to develop Sittwe comes as
a huge relief to India's strategic planners. In a recently revealed twist,
New Delhi compromised with the junta by agreeing to change the terms of
the project from "build, operate and transfer" to "build, operate and
use".

What a world of difference one word can make. Once India agreed that
control of the facility would remain solely with Myanmar and that it would
only be able to "use" the port it developed - which includes making the
Kaladan river in Myanmar navigable all the way up to adjoining the
northeastern state of Mizoram, as well upgrading highways within the
remote territory to connect with the rest of India's national network.

The deal was even sweeter for India because it took immediate pressure off
New Delhi to succeed in negotiations with Bangladesh for transport rights
of passage to India's insurgency-hit northeastern states. New Delhi's own
diplomatic problems with Dhaka have meant that Bangladesh has consistently
refused to provide India the trade and transit rights it has sought.

More significantly, perhaps, India's re-engagement with Myanmar seems to
have been sanctioned by none other than UN special envoy to Myanmar
Ibrahim Gambari, and thereby, presumably, also by UN secretary general Ban
Ki-moon's chief benefactor, the US.

Last week in New Delhi, Gambari said he hoped that "India would do more
than what it had been doing so far. [India] should work on Myanmar to make
the diplomatic process more inclusive and dialogue with the opposition
parties more dialogue-oriented." Adding that he was impressed with India's
"growing influence" on Myanmar, Gambari said India should use its leverage
to become a trustworthy and effective conduit to both source information
as well as send messages to the Myanmar government.

Clearly, Gambari was telling New Delhi that although the Western world -
namely, the US and the European Union - was in favor of taking a tougher
line on Myanmar, including the imposition of new financial sanctions, it
was also amenable to India taking a softer approach. It is apparently
believed that India's influence could help to check and balance Myanmar's
key ally China, which last year used its veto power to bar the UN Security
Council from putting Myanmar's abysmal rights record on its agenda.

For the time being, India seems to have taken the bait. It rankled deeply
in New Delhi in August last year when the Myanmar junta withdrew India's
state-owned Gas Authority's "preferential buyer" status on certain
offshore gas field blocks and declared it would instead sell them to rival
PetroChina.

With China waiting to grab control of more of Myanmar's untapped natural
gas resources and extend its sphere of strategic influence into the Bay of
Bengal, India realizes it can hardly afford to play with a straight bat.
And so a new great game, this time with Myanmar as the lucrative prize, is
unfolding on South Asia's strategic chessboard.

For India, of course, the key question is how to strike the fine balance
between close ties with Myanmar's military regime, the ever-circling
Chinese, and its own domestic opinion, which favors a much greater
political role for Myanmar's harassed democratic leader Aung San Suu Kyi,
who is still being held under house arrest.

Few in New Delhi can forget that Suu Kyi studied at a local college here
in the 1950s, when her mother was Myanmar's, then known as Burma,
ambassador to India. When General Maung Aye arrives to India in April, a
formal signature on Sittwe is expected and a new chapter in bilateral
relations will have opened. Whether India is able or willing to leverage
those ties into pushing for democratic change in Myanmar is a wildcard.

By then the UN's Gambari will have hopefully made a third visit to
Myanmar, to press the regime to implement democratic reforms and move the
country towards national reconciliation.

If the geostrategic map suddenly seems blurred and hardline Western
positions not necessarily what they are advocating behind closed doors,
then there could be more surprises ahead as India becomes more engaged in
Myanmar's future.

Jyoti Malhotra is a political analyst based in New Delhi, India.

____________________________________

February 8, Agence France Presse
New Thai PM urges UN chief to visit Myanmar

Thailand's new prime minister on Friday urged UN Secretary General Ban
Ki-moon to make a personal visit to Myanmar to press the military junta to
accept international talks on political reforms.

Premier Samak Sundaravej, who won elections in December to replace a
military-backed government, told a briefing for foreign media that he
believed "soft pressure" would push the generals in Myanmar to reform.

"Why don't we make a soft pressure by inviting Burma to come to talk," he
said, referring to the country by its former name.

"If North Korea can be settled by talking... why not do something here?"
he said, referring to the six-party international talks aimed at ending
North Korea's nuclear weapons drive.

"It should start with the United Nations," Samak said, urging the UN chief
to visit Myanmar and Thailand to kick-start diplomatic efforts.

"Why, when he can go anywhere in the world, why can he not go to Burma?".

Samak also defended Thailand's reliance on Myanmar for its energy needs.
The kingdom imports about 20 percent of its natural gas from Myanmar, and
is investing billions of dollars in building hydroelectric dams there.

"We consume their gas. It's a benefit to the country. Is there any
political cause that we should not buy this gas?" Samak said.

Myanmar's junta sparked international outrage in September when it
launched a bloody crackdown on pro-democracy protests led by Buddhist
monks, who spearheaded the biggest challenge to military rule in nearly
two decades.

At least 31 people died in the crackdown, according to the United Nations.

UN chief Ban has appointed a special envoy, Ibrahim Gambari, to try to
open a dialogue between the military and the pro-democracy opposition led
by detained Nobel peace prize winner Aung San Suu Kyi.

Gambari has paid two visits to the country, but when he asked to return
last month, the military put him off until April.

Samak's predecessor, army-installed prime minister Surayud Chulanont, had
also proposed international talks on Myanmar following the North Korean
six-party model.

____________________________________

February 8, Irrawaddy
Burmese ask if politics and Olympics mix - Wai Moe

The debate over whether to join a boycott of the Beijing Olympic Games,
set to take place this summer, has begun among Burmese inside the country
and abroad, even as their sports-loving compatriots seem to have other
things on their minds.

Some Burmese democracy activists say they are waiting to see how the
campaign against the Beijing Games will be conducted, while others see an
immediate need to put pressure on China for its support of oppressive
regimes from Burma to the Sudan.

Aung Moe Zaw, a secretary of the National Council of the Union of Burma
(NCUB), an umbrella group of exiled political organizations based in
Thailand, said that for the boycott to succeed, campaigners would have to
find common ground. He added that so far there has been little discussion
about the Olympics within the NCUB.

He also took a soft line on the need to push China to take a more
constructive role in resolving Burma’s political impasse:

“China spoke openly about the Burmese political deadlock after the
crackdown on the September uprising and has cooperated with the UN on the
Burma issue—we welcome this kind of step,” he told The Irrawaddy.

“As long as China doesn’t oppose the Burmese democracy movement, I think
[China’s position on Burma] is OK,” he added.

However, Bo Kyi, joint secretary of the Assistance Association for
Political Prisoners-Burma, also based in Thailand, argued that Beijing’s
disregard for human rights made it a fair target for international
criticism.

“Even though the Beijing Olympics are just around the corner, China’s
communist government still shows that it has no respect for human rights,
particularly freedom of expression,” he said, referring to the recent
arrest of Chinese bloggers.

“Defending repressive regimes around the world is bad foreign policy,” he
added.

Bo Win, a Burmese of Chinese descent living abroad, agreed that China
needed to be taken to task for supporting Burma’s oppressive regime:
“Everybody knows the junta’s brutal acts are unacceptable. But China
continues to defend the Burmese generals,” he said.

Maung Myint, a member of Rangoon’s Chinese community, singled out China’s
arms sales to the Burmese junta and its defense of the regime before the
United Nations Security Council as examples of Beijing’s unwelcome
interference in Burma’s affairs.

“I support a boycott of the Beijing Olympics,” he said, noting that the
Games were scheduled to begin on August 8, the twentieth anniversary of a
nationwide uprising that ended when the current regime seized power in a
brutal crackdown.

In Burma’s numerous sports publications, meanwhile, the Olympics have so
far attracted precious little attention—not so much because of the risks
of discussing a boycott, but because of a simple lack of interest.

“Journals don’t cover this issue because there’s no market demand,” said
Zaw Thet Htwe, a journalist in Rangoon. “Burmese sport readers are more
interested in the world’s football matches than in the Beijing Olympics.”

An editor with the “Forever Sports Journal” concurred: “The Burmese
journals cannot cover the Beijing Olympics because they don’t have the
space. They are all busy with football stories.”

____________________________________
INTERNATIONAL

February 7, CFI News
Christian Freedom International calls for universal attention on Burma -
Melane Bower

Christian Freedom International (CFI), a U.S.-based humanitarian
organization, is urging the global community to call on Burma’s government
to end the ethnic cleansing violence that has caused the deaths of
thousands of its own citizens, with thousands more swarming into refugee
camps.

The challenge comes as one of Hollywood’s latest films, Rambo IV, is being
released in theaters around the world -- a movie where its writer,
producer, and leading actor, Sylvester Stallone, began work on the script
shortly after the devastation of the September 11, 2001 U.S. terrorist
attacks.  In the early stages of the script’s development, Stallone
consulted with Soldiers of Fortune magazine and asked one crucial
question: where is the one place on earth where the worst atrocities are
taking place and getting the least amount of attention?

The answer was Burma.

In the latest installment of the 20-year-old Rambo movie franchise,
Stallone attempts to revive his protagonist character, John Rambo, where
the Vietnam veteran is living a solitary, peaceful life in Bangkok,
Thailand -- until the day he’s summoned to escort a group of Christian
missionaries up the Salween River to deliver relief aid to war-weary
refugees in Burma.  When the missionaries fail to return from their trip
nearly two weeks later, the veteran is once again approached by the
missionaries’ pastor, who pleads for his help in locating the aid workers
that have been kidnapped by the vicious Burmese army.

CFI anticipates that the movie’s recent release will draw more attention
to the grim reality of the world’s oldest civil war, in a country where
Karen and Karenni Christians have been especially suffering for decades. 
Since 1996, Christian Freedom International has built schools, orphanages
and field hospitals, as well as provided food, medicine and Bibles for
thousands of suffering Christians in Burma.

The organization has also remained as an active voice in the political
arena on behalf of Burma’s refugees, and in recent months worked closely
with the U.S. State Department to assist with the resettlement effort that
is allowing many of the country’s exiles to begin new lives in the United
States.

Although thousands of refugees are now living safely on American soil,
thousands more remain in grave danger as they continue to flee from the
Burmese army.  CFI president Jim Jacobson is currently on location in
Burma, delivering Bibles and urgently needed medical supplies to Karen and
Karenni refugees.

Jim Jacobson, a former White House policy analyst during the Reagan
administration, has frequently visited Burma to personally deliver aid --
and encouragement -- to displaced Christians in the region.

http://www.christianfreedom.org/cfi-news/1-latest-news/171-christian-freedom-international-calls-for-universal-attention-on-burma.html

____________________________________
OPINION / OTHER

February 8, Democratic Voice of Burma
A limited time to play - Nyo Ohn Myint

Naypyidaw, the jungle capital of Burma, has been very busy in past weeks
with top advisers in greens and generals in charge of internal security
responsibilities.

Senior general Than Shwe reportedly instructed them to find a short-term
solution to appease the angry and hungry Burmese people and international
players.

Before the Saffron Revolution, Than Shwe had tried to avoid a political
solution, but regional and international pressures have made political
engagement unavoidable.

The senior general has not given up, but is preparing better political,
social, and diplomatic strategies to achieve his own aims; he has chosen
general Ye Myint to approach and receive the support of ethnic ceasefire
groups, while he has designated foreign minister Nyan Win and prime
minister Thein Sein to neutralize the mounting international pressures and
raise funds to combat the shortage of hard currency.

U Aung Thaung and general Htay Oo have been given outright power to
control the domestic political and social turmoil, and U Aung Kyi has been
tasked to perform various magic tricks with Daw Aung San Suu Kyi.

Consequently, Nyan Win approached India for financial assistance,
investments and bilateral cooperation in early January 2008. Along with
other issues, the main purpose of the discussion for the SPDC was to seek
financial assistance from India.

Perhaps China has indicated its unwillingness to provide financial and
political support until it has successfully staged the Beijing Olympic in
August 2008.

Sources say that Than Shwe has limited his public appearances since the
Saffron Revolution last year. There is as hard-line an undercurrent as
ever in Burma, but interestingly, the generals who oversee the military
institutions have also disappeared from the public scene.

Rumours spread that general Thura Shwe Mann, the front runner to be the
next SPDC leader, was even losing control over mid-level super hardliners,
as was the junta’s second-in-command vice-senior general Maung Aye.

It is crystal clear that Than Shwe and the hardliners tightly control all
power and decision-making processes.

U Aung Kyi has had both international and local audiences to play with;
providing false hope, diluting commitments, and most importantly trying to
marginalize Daw Aung San Suu Kyi’s role as much as he could.

Than Shwe knows she has no option of refusing to meet with U Aung Kyi if
there is to be a political negotiation process.

Regardless of whether an agreement is reached, things will still be
dangerous. Indeed, Than Shwe has bunch of cards in his hands but time may
not allow him to play them, as a diplomat said.

In addition, there is no affinity between policy-making group of super
hardliners backed by decision-maker Than Shwe and the implementation team
or cabinet led by prime minister Thein Sein.

A few hardliners who are also cabinet ministers refuse to accept any
suggestions from Thein Sein, according to a close associate of the regime.
A para-SPDC cabinet and secondary security forces exist alongside the
official institutions, and this has caused problems.

A recent major challenge has been allocating funds for government spending.

The army has made a request to replace two-decade-old Chinese-made
military hardware with more modern alternatives, but internal security –
run by super hardliners – has hesitated to approve the army’s request,
believing small arms to be good enough for suppression.

Than Shwe may withdraw from the UN-initiated dialogue process with Daw
Aung San Suu Kyi if the international community fails to resume normal
humanitarian assistance.

He has used her image to get aid, assistance and contain possible unrest;
if this strategy is not working, why would he bother to send someone to
meet her?

Reducing the strength of the opposition is a very important factor for
Than Shwe in ruling Burma, and so security forces continue to make
arrests, search activists door-to-door and put pressure on civilians.

The fabricated bombings in Burma over the last few weeks allowed the
regime to set up roadblocks, search political activists in the local
community and impose travel restrictions on opposition members.

Than Shwe’s shadow cabinet and close associates are facing opposition from
different sectors of society, challenges from monks, and the hostility of
a new anti-government generation all within a limited timeframe.

The more battlefronts he and his men have to fight on, the lesser chance
he has of winning each battle.

Even if they are successful, they will have to reshuffle the whole army
and SPDC for their future destiny while the country remains at ground
zero.

If not, and they fail to prove that a hard-line strategy is the most
efficient, a new generation army will take over power and determine the
role for the military to take in Burmese politics.

____________________________________

February 8, Irrawaddy
Don’t shoot the messenger [Editorial]

Since the bloody crackdown in September, the regime in Naypyidaw has
become increasingly isolated. However, they are not sitting idly. They are
buying time while ignoring the international community’s calls to
reconcile with the democratic opposition and initiate a genuine dialogue.

The Western governments have tightened sanctions on the junta, since
constructive engagement is so obviously doomed to failure. This, we
believe, is the correct approach.

In this respect, the United States government has led the way in punishing
the generals and cutting them off from their aspirations. The US is also
the main player in keeping the spotlight on Burma. Recently, the Bush
administration increased targeted sanctions on the regime leaders, their
families and cronies, and leading Burmese businessmen. We welcomed the
decision and hope the sanctions are expanded to hurt all powerful
businesspersons who have strong connections to the military leaders. They
deserve no less.

But more needs to be done. The generals know that the world’s attention is
shifting and its attention span on Burma is short. The regime’s wrath is
unyielding and the crackdown on dissidents continues.

Recently, a young man named Nay Phone Latt was arrested for blogging. He
could be charged under Burma’s draconian Emergency Act and sentenced to
seven years in prison.

The Burmese security forces have also stepped up surveillance on Internet
cafés in Rangoon and those who visit them in the wake of hundreds of
images and photos being sent out during the carnage in September.

The regime is fighting against a new enemy—cyber dissidents and citizen
reporters, armed with cell phones, digital cameras and memory sticks.

Therefore, for the sake of change in Burma, it is vitally important that
the lines of communication remain open at all times.

And so to New Zealand, where, last Monday, debate flared in parliament
over the contracting of state-owned telecommunications company Kordia to
install cell phone towers in Burma.

Kordia chief executive Geoff Hunt was quoted as saying that the firm had
installed mobile base station equipment for Myanmar Post and
Telecommunications.

New Zealand Prime Minister Helen Clark, who had denounced the Burmese
regime in the past, was caught between a rock and a hard place. She
defended her government’s position saying the contract would probably help
democracy.

The Green Party, with six members in New Zealand’s 121-seat parliament,
issued a press release criticizing the government for giving the green
light for a public company to work in Burma.

The party’s foreign affairs spokesman, Keith Locke, said, “It is shocking
that our government should be encouraging a state-owned company to help
the Burmese regime, one of the most ruthless in the world.”

Clark countered by stating that there were no economic sanctions on Burma.
The small contract that the state-owned Kordia signed was a joint venture
with Thai firm ALT Inter Corporation, and was worth about NZ $80,000 (US
$62,400).

“Quite frankly, I think that's probably an aid to democracy [in Burma],
not a step backwards,” she said. “Because one of the ways of getting news
out to the world and photos and images out to the world is precisely
through that technology.”

In fact, she is not wrong. However, we’ve heard these lame excuses too
often in the past.

Some years ago, the Australian government provided a series of human
rights training courses to Burmese officials in the naïve assumption that
the regime would see the light and start respecting the rights of its
citizens.

A few years later, in May 2003, a gang of thugs trained by the regime
attacked democracy leader Aung San Suu Kyi and her motorcade. Where were
the human rights trainees that day?

The junta is a lingering leopard that will never change its spots.

Nevertheless, we believe that the lines of communication between Burma and
the outside world must remain open. It is essential that the citizens of
Burma be able to purchase cell phones, SIM cards and other IT devices
freely and at reasonable prices.

The state-controlled cost of US $1,500 for a SIM card alone is certainly
not reasonable.

However, ultimately, more cell phones, cheaper Internet access, a higher
computer literacy and unknown future gadgets will inspire a young
generation who want to share stories and news with the rest of the world.

We look forward to seeing more and more ordinary folk in Burma chatting on
mobile phones, exchanging photos by e-mail and researching news on the
Internet. Burma should be flooded with cell phones and Internet cafés.

In the meantime, we must keep pressure on the regime to stop arresting
cyber dissidents and citizen reporters who conform to Prime Minister
Clark’s image as messengers of news, photos and images to the world. But,
she must also be ready to defend Nay Phone Latt and his fellow citizen
reporters who languish in prison.

____________________________________

February 8, Mizzima News
Why sanctions fail - Bo Kyaw Nyein [Analysis]

Many wonder why American-led sanctions against the Burmese junta have not
yielded any results after all these years. Meanwhile, the Bush
administration is now trying a new approach called "targeted sanctions".
In this author's opinion it doesn't matter what new approach the
administration may decide to take, it will again fail. Former oilmen like
Bush and Cheney are either ignoring obvious developments or pretending not
to notice the facts.

Americans like to emphasize rhetoric and impose sanctions based on the
news of the day, but they choose to ignore the most significant income for
Burma's generals. A few years back, the topic was garment factories. The
wise men in the U.S. Congress wrote a sanction law to shut down a few
garment factories in Burma without studying the consequences it could or
could not have on the Burmese junta. The target was the assumed $300
million income generated from the garment industry.

In reality just a portion of the income, in the form of briberies,
actually reached the generals' pockets, and the loss of income neither
hurt the government machinery nor stopped the junta from purchasing
military hardware or a nuclear reactor. Worse yet, many Burmese workers
lost their jobs when the factories were shut down and many female
employees became sex workers. The junta's propaganda machine blamed
Burma's main opposition party, National League for Democracy, and the U.S.
Congress for these negative effects.

After the Saffron Revolution the SPDC held an annual gem show, which
became the focus of the international media. Again the U.S. Congress
danced to the tune of the media and wrote a new sanction law to ban the
export of Burmese gems. It aimed to close loopholes which allow third
countries to export gems originating from Burma.

But I would just like to shout at the top of my lungs: 'Mr. Bush, it is
energy stupid!'

Human Rights Watch, in a report on Burma in November 2007, listed 27
companies based in 13 countries as having investment interests in Burma's
oil and gas fields. According to this report, thirteen of those companies
are entirely or partially owned by foreign governments, and these
state-controlled companies are invested in 20 of the 30 projects currently
underway.

Gas revenue in Burma in 2006 was up $1 billion from the prior year, in
part due to higher prices globally. Revenues are likely to have further
increased in 2007 as world prices have surged. Future gas revenues are
anticipated to increase even further once gas production from a massive
offshore gas project, the Shwe Project, goes online. A South Korean-led
consortium discovered the gas in the Shwe fields and is preparing to
produce it for export. Several buyers vied for the rights to purchase the
gas, with India and China among the most active bidders. Estimates of the
gas yield from the Shwe deposits range from $37 to $52 billion, and could
lead to profits for the Burmese government of $12 to $17 billion over 20
years.

Another Human Rights Watch report, from October of last year, says that at
present the SPDC receives the bulk of its gas money from the onshore
Yadana and Yetagun gas fields. The Yadana consortium is led by Total of
France and includes UNOCAL (now Chevron) of the United States and
Thailand's state-controlled PTT Exploration and Production Co Ltd (PTTEP).
The Yetagun consortium is led by Malaysia's state-owned Petronas, and
includes Japan's Nippon Oil as well as PTTEP.

According to these reports, Burma's military government earned
approximately $2.16 billion in 2006 from gas sales to Thailand, its single
largest source of revenue. The Asian Development Bank says Burma's junta
exported goods worth $4.3 billion and imported goods worth $3.9 billion in
2006. It is obvious that as long as the Burmese junta is getting cash from
foreign-financed oil and gas projects; they can easily withstand sanctions
imposed by U.S. and Western democracies.

Furthermore, Burma fits perfectly into China's energy security plan.
Chinese politicians and policy makers are long-term thinkers and they are
concerned that oil routes to China can be blocked in times of conflict at
the Strait of Malacca by the U.S. 7th fleet. China's energy policy is thus
to exploit any source that can be accessed regardless of politics.

Deals signed with Sudan, Nigeria and Iran are proof of this approach.
China has just signed a contract to develop Iran's Yadavaran oil and gas
field, which exceeds $2 billion in value. In addition China is working
with Russia, Iran, Uzbekistan and other Central Asian countries to build
gas and oil pipelines to eastern China.


>From sources inside Burma and personal discussions with Chinese officials,

it is clear that China's interest in Burmese gas alone is minuscule.
China's main interest is to develop a deep sea port in Kyauk Phru,
Arakan's second biggest port, and use it as a transfer point for Middle
Eastern oil to China's inland provinces, thus eliminating the need to ship
its oil through the Strait of Malacca.

Another player to watch is Saudi Arabia. According to Wang Hongjiang from
Xinhuanet.com, Burma may receive interest-free loans from Saudi Arabia,
which established diplomatic relations with Burma in August 2004 and
opened an embassy in Yangon in December 2005.

According to Dr. Sein Myint, a Burmese expert with more than 25 years
experience in the oil industry, Burmese oil officials entered discussions
with Middle Eastern equity investors in 1995/1996 to build oil refineries
in Burma and to export diesel to India. The negotiations fell through
then, but Saudi Arabia is hungry to find new places to build refineries to
process its oil, as more developed countries are resisting building new
refineries due to environmental concerns. Burma would be a perfect place
to build new Saudi refineries. Burmese generals could not care less about
the environmental issue.

With Saudi money and clout, the income of Burma's generals could be
significantly increased, and Americans would find it hard to pressure the
Saudis.

The fall of the U.S. dollar is also helping the junta evade the full
impact of U.S. sanctions. The Burmese junta uses the European SWIFT
network to bypass currency and financial restrictions imposed upon the
junta by U.S. sanctions and they are pressuring trading partners for
Euro-based transactions rather than dollar-based transactions. With the
value of the dollar declining, one of my sources inside Burma has reported
that the Burmese generals are confident they could move to a Yuan-based
transaction system to fight U.S. currency restrictions.

The Burmese generals are no fools. They have tightly integrated India,
China, Korea, Malaysia, Thailand and Russia into their energy network. If
Burma becomes the southern leg of China's energy security plan, Burma's
generals will be further buttressed by a growing global power. If the
junta can build strong relations with Russia and Saudi Arabia as well, it
will become very hard for any U.S. administration to pressure all these
global players to sacrifice national interest in the name of democracy.

I hope the incoming American administration and a new Congress will
realize that rhetoric alone and patchwork sanctions will not solve Burma's
crisis. We need to look deeply into the issues and develop a sound policy
to effectively help the long suffering people of Burma. We may need a
tough new sanction law like the Iran-Libya Sanctions Act (ILSA), which
penalized foreign companies daring to invest more than $20 million in
Iran's oil and gas industry. Until and unless America blocks this energy
revenue, the Burmese generals will laugh all the way to the bank.

This author supports economic sanctions, not for economic reasons but as a
show of symbolic political support for Daw Suu. Daw Suu is the HOPE for
Burma and it is important that Burma's iconic leader enjoys global
support.

Sanctions have not met their original goal of forcing the SPDC to the
negotiating table because Burma's generals and their partners work hard to
find ways and means to bypass sanctions, while the U.S. and its partners
are inclined to employ a patchwork approach without comprehensive plans
for implementing sanctions and monitoring the effects.

I hope American policy makers will learn from failed Iraq and Iran
policies, reevaluate, and formulate policies that will truly bring
positive results for Burma. Closing the energy loophole may be the start.

____________________________________

February 8, International Herald Tribute
Are sanctions the answer? - Stanley A. Weiss

In the often black and white, good-versus-evil debate over how to deal
with the brutal military regime here, Ma Thanegi lives in a world of gray.

To her admirers, the feisty 61-year-old Burmese painter and writer is a
voice of reason - a former assistant to opposition leader and Nobel peace
laureate Aung San Suu Kyi who, after being jailed for three years herself,
bravely opposed Suu Kyi's misguided call for Western economic sanctions to
pressure the junta into relinquishing power.

To her critics in the democracy movement, Thanegi is a sellout who parrots
government propaganda to foreign tourists and journalists. Meeting openly
with me at a major hotel suggests that - with her writings on Burmese
culture and cuisine, not politics - she has little to fear in the
continuing crackdown on dissidents after the fall's protests led by
Buddhist monks.

In reality, Thanegi seems an equal opportunity critic, which - with the
world out of options for dealing with the junta - makes hers a voice worth
hearing.

Expressing her hopes for "freedom of publication," she says that with a
military government "it's a given that they are very controlling and
rigid, not knowing anything about the running of the economy."

She slams "sycophants" in both government and the opposition who have
created "so much mistrust" that any real dialogue is "a pipe dream."

"I am not a traitor or a turncoat," she insists. "I wish with all my heart
that I had been wrong, that the strategy laid down by Suu Kyi, who we love
so much, was the right one." But Western sanctions are "costing us jobs
and hurting people, who need to eat on a daily basis."

In brief, nervous encounters, ordinary Burmese - street vendors, taxi
drivers, tour guides, waiters - tell me much the same thing: "We love Suu
Kyi. We hate the military. But please, get rid of the sanctions."

For Maung Zarni, it's an especially "bitter pill" to admit that sanctions
have failed to moderate the regime. As a graduate student in the United
States a decade ago, his Free Burma Coalition led the grassroots campaign
for sanctions and divestment, which forced corporations like PepsiCo and
Texaco to leave Burma.

But we "failed to account for China and India," he says, explaining why he
began opposing sanctions. "We can't isolate a regime that's trading and
buying arms from the fastest growing economies in the world."

He concedes that more foreign investment could further enrich the criminal
regime he opposes. But Zarni - who first befriended Westerners as a young
tourist guide in his native Mandalay - argues that "this is a small price
to pay in the short term for the longer term benefit of creating jobs for
farmers and workers."

"It's extremely politically incorrect to say it," he says, "but economics,
perhaps even more than politics, is the key to progress." As in
dictatorships-turned-democracies like Indonesia, South Korea, Taiwan and
Chile, "economic reform could lead to political reform."

Thant Myint-U also challenges anti-sanctions orthodoxy. An historian and
grandson of former United Nations Secretary General U Thant, he argues
that "if over the last 15 years there had been trade and investment, and
not just increasing isolation from the West, there could have been real
economic growth and the emergence of much better conditions for political
change."

His thanks for speaking such common sense? A liberal U.S. magazine lashed
out at him for espousing a view that "justifies the junta's policies" and
"forestalls democracy."

Tragically, Myanmar now represents the worst of all possible worlds.
Having crushed the biggest challenge to its rule in two decades, the junta
- which sees itself as the only force able to prevent the Balkanization of
multi-ethnic Burma - seems in no mood to compromise, if it ever was.

In a message this week, Suu Kyi, now under house arrest for 12 of the past
18 years, urged supporters to "hope for the best, and prepare for the
worst."

The regime's worst enablers - neighbors and trade partners, especially
China, the junta's biggest military supplier - show no interest in
applying the economic pressure that might persuade the generals to change
course.

The United States and European Union, having already sanctioned themselves
out of influence over the junta, have imposed still more sanctions that
will likely push the generals even closer to Beijing.

Meanwhile, 55 million Burmese - including an estimated one million ethnic
refugees in the countryside - are trapped in a growing humanitarian
catastrophe of ethnic cleansing, disease, drugs, malnutrition and forced
labor, including as child soldiers.

"The landscape that's been created is exactly the landscape that will keep
things just as they are for a very long time," says Myint-U.

"And branding people as 'pro-junta' for trying to suggest different ways
forward only prevents the creative discussion we desperately need if we
don't want to be facing the same situation 20 years from now."

After a decade of experience, it's clear: economic sanctions on Myanmar
may feel right, but they have helped produce the wrong results.
Encouraging Western investment, trade and tourism may feel wrong, but
maybe - just maybe - could produce better results.

That might be politically incorrect, but at least it wouldn't be
politically futile.

Stanley A. Weiss is Founding Chairman of Business Executives for National
Security, a nonpartisan organization based in Washington.