BurmaNet News, February 15, 2008

[Editor]

February 15, 2008 Issue # 3403

INSIDE BURMA
Reuters: Slain Myanmar rebel predicted rising tensions
Newsweek: The Art of Defiance
Mizzima News: Household registration begun in Taundwingyi
SHAN: SSA-S denies recruiting child soldiers
AP: Burma starts relocating animals to new Zoo in Naypyidaw

ON THE BORDER
Mizzima News: Burmese opposition groups challenge junta's constitution
AP: Karen rebels vow to continue fighting against Burma junta
Irrawaddy: A good man will never die
Mizzima News: Police finds truck used for Mahn Sha's assassination
Mizzima News: The Sangha must do what they can for the people of Burma

GUNS
Irrawaddy: Burma to attend Indian Arms Fair

REGIONAL
Japan Economic Newswire: Japan to send police, Foreign Ministry officials
to Myanmar

OPINION / OTHER
The Economist: If voting changed anything; Myanmar: the junta's cunning plan
Irrawaddy: Divided they fall - Yeni
Time: Pre-Emptive Strike - Joshua Kurlantzick

____________________________________
INSIDE BURMA

February 15, Reuters
Slain Myanmar rebel predicted rising tensions - Ed Cropley

Only three days before he was shot dead in his home on the Thai border, a
top Myanmar rebel leader predicted heightened tension with the ruling
military junta in the run-up to a May constitutional referendum.

In an interview with Reuters on Monday, Karen National Union (KNU)
secretary general Mahn Sha Lar Phan said the junta's plan to push through
its army-drafted charter would meet opposition not just from the former
Burma's many rebel groups.

"They will face many difficulties with this referendum, because people
know this referendum will make them slaves," the soft-spoken 64-year-old
said, sitting in the same wooden seat where he would be shot dead three
days later.

Dissident groups are already campaigning for a "no" vote, saying the as
yet unfinished charter is an attempt by the junta to legitimize its grip
on power after 46 years of military rule.

Even though Mahn Sha's assassination could be the result of an internecine
vendetta, the predominantly Christian KNU was quick to accuse Yangon's
military regime of orchestrating the hit via a Buddhist Karen splinter
group.

"This is the work of the DKBA and the Burmese soldiers," his son Hse Hse
said, referring to the Democratic Karen Buddhist Army.

According to Mahn Sha's neighbor, the two gunmen spoke Karen, but
Thailand-based Myanmar analyst Aung Naing Oo said it was impossible to
know who was behind the killing.

The only certainty is that the Myanmar junta looks set to gain from the
removal of a man central to the Karen cause.

"If this is from an internal Karen feud, it will trigger a bloodbath,"
Aung Naing Oo said.

The Karen, an ethnic minority of about 7 million people, have been
fighting for independence since 1949, one of the world's longest-running
guerrilla conflicts. They are one of only three rebel militias not to have
signed a ceasefire with the junta.

There had been no contact between the KNU leadership, based on the Thai
border, and Myanmar's generals for a year, Mahn Sha said, adding that
there appeared to be little immediate prospect of peace. His death makes
the chances even more remote.

"If the regime declared a nationwide ceasefire, there would be no need to
fight," he said. "But now, we need to protect our people and to protect
ourselves."

Having graduated from Rangoon University in 1966 with a degree in history,
Mahn Sha threw himself into the Karen liberation movement, rising to
became its secretary-general in 2000.

"His determination for freedom and democracy lives on within us and within
the Karen people," his four children said in a statement issued by the
Burma Campaign UK, an activist group.

"He did not live to see freedom for our people, but his dream will be
fulfilled. The Karen, and all the people of Burma, will be free".

Myanmar has been under military rule of one form or another since 1962,
during which time it has been riven by dozens of ethnic guerrilla wars,
funded in large part by revenues from opium sales from the notorious
"Golden Triangle".

(Editing by Darren Schuettler and Sanjeev Miglani)

____________________________________

February 15, Newsweek
The Art of Defiance – Jacob Baynham

Despite a censorship crackdown, Burma's underground artists are determined
to get their message out.

In a simple studio tucked into the shadows of a wealthy Rangoon
neighborhood, a leading member of Burma's underground political art
movement lights a Red Ruby cigarette, smoke curling into the hollows of
his cheeks. Thein Soe (not his real name) is 61 years old and probably
weighs less than 100 pounds. The paintings spread across the studio walls,
desk and floor could bring a prison sentence in this military
dictatorship, where freedom of expression has not existed for 46 years,
since the military took power in a coup. "It's very difficult to show our
inner sense, our expression," says Soe. "There are many censors for art
here."

Things took a turn for the worse in September, when an uprising of monks
and civilians was crushed by the military. Poets, bloggers and comedians
have been targeted in the last few months for their political commentary.
Arrests are more frequent. Despite the crackdown, Burma's underground
political art movement is growing. In secret, artists buy and sell
portraits of the detained democracy leader Aung San Suu Kyi and share
ideas and inspiration. Young artists are also joining the fold. For lack
of traditional materials, several youths have turned to installation and
performance art to speak their minds. One young man recently walked a busy
street with a birdcage on his head before dropping it and fleeing. "We
paint what we suffer and what we feel," says Soe, speaking for a group of
a dozen or so master artists. "It's very dangerous for us."

Across town Rangoon's latest music sensation, emcee J-Me, also deals with
daily censorship of his work. Spoon-deep in a bowl of pasta at a trendy
café, J-Me is proof that Burma's xenophobic government is no match for the
globalization of popular culture. Officially, U.S. sanctions prevent
American exports to Burma, but hip-hop is difficult to stop at the
borders. "It's a big thing for us," says J-Me, who is dressed in baggy
shorts and a T-shirt, with a fake diamond bling watch and a crucifix
around his neck. "It may not be a big thing for everyone outside, but
we've created the Myanmar Hip-Hop Association. Not the sissy-ass songs
that you dance to on TRL [a pop hits show on MTV], you know what I'm
sayin'? The real Wu-Tang stuff."

Burmese hip-hop may be slightly old-school in style and struggling to
define itself, but it's sweeping the nation nevertheless. Teashop stereos
that were locked into '80s hair metal for two decades are now thumping a
different beat. The rapping of J-Me and his friends is revolutionary in
that unlike other musicians who sing in refined, polite Burmese, these
emcees rap in the slang of the streets.

For the hip-hoppers, of course, political lyrics are out of the question.
"Hip-hop just started here," says J-Me's fellow emcee Bigg-Y. "If we go
and rap about politics, they'll stop us." Rapper G-Tone was arrested two
months ago when he revealed a tattoo on his back that included images of
folded palms and prayer beads. G-Tone insists the design was inspired by
the Joker hip-hop clothing line, but the police thought it was a symbol
for September's monk-led Saffron Revolution. They let him go but banned
him from performing for a year. Censors are paying particular attention to
lyrics after September's uprisings. "They watch my lyrics with a big
magnifying glass," J-Me says.

The government mouthpiece, the New Light of Myanmar, ran an editorial in
January denouncing the Western influences changing the face of Burma. It
warned the youth to "stay away from decadent costumes, words incompatible
with Myanmar [Burmese] custom, and behaviors that lack modesty." The booty
girls in Burmese hip-hop videos, which are bought and sold in pirated
copies on the streets of Rangoon, dance with their midriffs and miniskirts
digitally blurred.

The U.S. Embassy in Rangoon has helped the artists' underground. In
December the embassy sponsored an art exhibit that featured Burmese and
American painters. Diplomats, local artists and members of the public
came. (The same exhibit will be shown later this year in San Francisco,
where it will feature politically themed paintings that would not be
tolerated by the censorship board in Burma.) Although the scope of U.S.
Embassy projects is limited inside Burma, the Embassy carries on cultural
exchange programs that feature American art and music. "We have good
relations with the people of this country," says the U.S. chargé
d'affaires for Burma, Shari Villarosa. "We want to have a full, open
relationship with this country."

Last winter, Villarosa hosted a hip-hop show on the grounds of her private
residence in Rangoon. The American hip-hop group Timeless Voices of
America performed, as part of the State Department's Rhythm Road program,
which sponsors American music abroad. J-Me and some of his friends rapped
alongside. "Basically, we don't censor art in the United States,"
Villarosa says. "This is a means of communication for the artists with the
people. They have something to say, and we're interested in what they have
to say."

Even with government censors looking over their shoulders, Burma's artists
have found ways of getting their message through. Some political art
pieces are made in private and sent out of the country to be displayed in
international galleries. Other pieces are just subtle enough to escape
censorship. One artist recently made a clay sculpture of a lock and
key—"the key that will be used to unlock Burma's future," he says. He
plans to tell the censors it signifies men and women. But the consequences
of being found out are serious. In January a poet was sent to jail for a
hidden message in a love poem he printed in a Rangoon daily newspaper. The
message read: "Gen. Than Shwe is crazy with power."

Every painting displayed in a gallery or shop in Burma must first pass the
scrutiny of the ministry of information's censorship board. Any sign of
discontent or disloyalty to the government, or an unseemly political
message can shut down the gallery and land the artist in jail. Musicians
have to explain their lyrics to the censorship board before they can
record. Policemen attend concerts to make sure nothing unsavory slips out
onstage. The censors' scrutiny is especially severe after September's
Saffron Revolution. Many artists, however, remained determined. "Artists
have a responsibility to their people and country to express what
happens," says one artist in Rangoon whose brother was jailed for 11 years
and whose uncle died behind bars, both for their political poetry. "We are
not angry; we are sad. All of these years have been wasted time."

____________________________________

February 15, Mizzima News
Household registration begun in Taundwingyi - Htein Lin

The local authorities have begun household registration in Taungdwingyi
recently. It is believed to be in preparation for the voters list for the
forthcoming referendum.

Officials reminded residents through loudspeakers three days ago in all 10
wards to come to the local Peace and Development Council (PDC) office and
fill up the form for household registration.

"The local PDC office used loudspeakers asking us to come to their office.
They wanted all heads of households to come to their office immediately by
bringing national identity cards and household registration cards.
Everyone knows this is for the voters list to be used in the forthcoming
referendum," a local resident from Taungdwingyi told Mizzima.

The Immigration and Manpower Office staff and Ward PDC members checked the
people's current family members against their office copies and renewed
and updated the registration cards by deleting absent family members and
adding new family members.

Local residents believe that this is in preparation for the forthcoming
referendum but they have no choice but to abide by their order for fear of
harassment. The local authorities can give them a lot of trouble such as
refusing recommendation letters from them when asked.

"They will ensure the referendum result is in their favour. Whatever vote
the people cast, they would change and say these are the 'Yes' votes", he
added.

Local residents also believe that the local authorities might make sure
the people come and vote at the referendum by using intimidation,
persuasion and appeasement.

"They never do any work sincerely, they plan everything meticulously. For
instance, if they want to hold a lecture or debate, they organize some
people to arrange it and bring some people from the nearby villages as
audience. The villagers have to come to their function not knowing for
what purpose. The villagers are unhappy with them, but they can do
nothing," he said.

Similarly an eyewitness from Meiktila, Mandalay Division said that he
found over 3,000 copies of new household registration forms in each Ward
PDC offices.

"They seem to make the people fill up these forms unwittingly. These are
not the ordinary Immigration Form 10. They printed these copies
systematically. In the heading of each form, it was printed 'USDA
households'. In short, people will become USDA members automatically when
they fill up these forms," he said.

Local residents are worried about all family members becoming USDA members
automatically when they renew their household registrations.

In Mandalay, Chanayethazan Township too, the Ward PDC Chairmen visited
each house door to door urgently during these days, and registered the
household members and listed all youth over 18 as USDA members.

____________________________________

February 15, Shan Herald Agency for News
SSA-S denies recruiting child soldiers - Mu Byan Binn

Shan State Army (SSA) South recently denied a UN special report by UN
Secretary-General Ban Ki-Moon accusing it of recruiting child soldiers.

“The United Nations should not listen to outside. We, the SSA invite the
UN to come here and see the truth.  Our mandatory policy is to recruit
people as soldiers from 18 to 45 years old,” said the chairman of
Restoration Counsel of Shan State (RCSS), Col Yawd Serk through an
interpreter during the press conference on Shan State National day, 7th
February in Loi Tai Leng, his headquarter, opposite Mae Hong Son,
Thailand.

“Although they are over 18 they look like 14 -15 years old because of
malnutrition,” he added.

Similarly, on February 12, a press release made by Karenni National
Progressive Party (KNPP) flatly denied the UN report that accused its
Karenni Army recruit child soldiers saying "there is no justification for
the inclusion of the Karenni Army in the list of non-state armed groups"
making use of child soldiers in armed conflict.

" We have on many occasions invited interested parties, including the UN's
country representive, UNICEF and Human Rights Watch, to visit the areas
where the Karenni Army operate to verify these facts for themselves...The
KA will offer them logistic assistance and open access so they can monitor
the situation", the press release stated.  It also demanded the UN to
remove the KA from the list of non-state armed groups recruiting child
soldiers.

The nine non-state armed groups that UN accused of utilising child
soldiers are: the Karenni Army, the Karenni Nationalities People
Liberation Front (ceasefire), the Democratic Karen Buddhist Army
(ceasefire), the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (ceasefire),
the United Wa State Army (ceasefire), Karen National Liberation Army Peace
Council (ceasefire), the Kachin Independence Army (ceasefire), the Karen
National Liberation Army and Shan State Army-South.  The report also
accused the SPDC of recruiting child soldiers.

____________________________________

February 15, Associated Press
Burma starts relocating animals to new Zoo in Naypyidaw

First, the civil servants were trucked to Burma's newly built capital.
Now, it's the rhinos and elephants turn. Using cranes and trucks, the
military government this week began relocating scores of animals—including
elephants, rhinos, deer and bear—from Rangoon's Zoological Garden to the
capital Naypyitaw, about 400 kilometers (250 miles) north of Rangoon, zoo
officials said. The Rangoon zoo houses 150 species of mammals, birds and
reptiles, but it is chronically short of funding and has started falling
into disrepair. The animals moving to Naypyitaw will be housed in a
200-acre facility that opens to the public March 27. While the junta has
claimed the new zoo will be world class, some residents have expressed
concern it lacks the infrastructure and lush vegetation the animals need
to survive.

____________________________________
ON THE BORDER

February 15, Mizzima News
Burmese opposition groups challenge junta's constitution - Mungpi

Burmese opposition groups in exile today said they have completed drafting
a federal constitution and came down heavily on the ruling junta's
constitution, which is being drafted by handpicked delegates for an open
debate.

The Federal Constitution Drafting and Coordinating Committee, formed with
representatives of Burmese opposition groups including armed rebels, said
its draft constitution is designed to reflect the peoples' will and will
guarantee democracy, equality and self-determination.

The FCDCC, during a press conference in Bangkok today, said it has
completed the second draft of the constitution, "Federal Republic of the
Union of Burma", which is endorsed by over 90 Burmese democracy and ethnic
organizations and more than 120 individuals.

Dr. Lian H Sakhong, Secretary of the FCDCC, said, "We challenge Senior
General Than Shwe, Burma's supreme leader, to make the SPDC's 7-step
roadmap more inclusive and democratic as we in the FCDCC process have. Our
process is free from censorship and control."

With Burma's armed resistance groups including the Karen National Union,
Burma's longest operating insurgent group, endorsing, the draft
constitution is designed to reflect the views of the many ethnic
nationalities of Burma, Sakhong said.

Burma, which has remained without a constitution for nearly two decades,
has been plagued by civil war, and ethnic insurgency, since its
independence in 1948.

While several groups of ethnic insurgents seek greater autonomy and
self-determination, several groups have demanded the right to secede or
independence, after decades of political mistrust under successive
military regimes.

Though the international community including the United Nations have
called on the ruling military regime to implement democratic reforms
through a process of national reconciliation, several neighboring
countries, particularly the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN)
has said it fears that ethnic nationalities' demand for independence will
add to greater political turmoil if democracy is in place.

Sakhong, however, said the FCDCC's draft federal constitution has strictly
emphasized on the building of a genuine federal system that, however,
excludes the right to secession.

"We are saying that if there is a genuine federal system that guarantees
democracy, equality and self-determination, ethnic nationalities are
willing to remain under the federal umbrella," Sakhong said.

"Since the draft constitution of "Federal Republic of the Union of Burma",
strongly guarantees equality and self-determination for all nationalities,
we see no need for and in no way, will demand or exercise the right to
secession," FCDCC said in a statement released today.

"We conclude that the much trumpeted "without the SPDC military clique,
Burma will disintegrate" is nothing but the SPDC's propaganda to instill
fear and concern in the international community," the committee added.

While the FCDCC claims that the draft constitution has been endorsed by
opposition political parties as well as armed ethnic insurgents, several
ceasefire armed groups that have signed peace agreements with the ruling
junta failed to add their views.

However, the Kachin Independence Army, one of Burma's longest operating
insurgent group, which has signed a ceasefire agreement with the junta,
said it is willing to accept any constitution that includes the KIA's
proposal.

The KIA/KIO, whose delegates attended the junta's 14 year-long national
convention, submitted a 19-point proposal in the last round of the
national convention. However, the junta sidelined the KIA's proposal and
failed to include them as guidelines for the drafting of the constitution,
which is being drafted by a 54-member committee.

Major Gun Maw, spokesperson of the KIO, told Mizzima, "We are ready to
accept any constitution drafted by any group as long as it includes our
19-point proposal, because our proposal reflects the true desire of the
Kachin people."

Sakhong said, though the KIO has not formally endorsed the FCDCC's draft
constitution, as the points mentioned in the KIO's proposal, which points
out the necessity for power sharing between the state and centre, is
consistent with the draft constitution.

"The KIO's proposal is consistent with the draft constitution," Sakhong said.

Meanwhile, the United Wa State Army (UWSA), another armed insurgent group
that has signed a ceasefire agreement with the junta, said it believes
that the government should be directly represented by the people.

"We believe that any government should be represented by the people
itself. So, we will support any constitution that reflects the peoples'
desire," a UWSA spokesperson told Mizzima.

____________________________________

February 15, Associated Press
Karen rebels vow to continue fighting against Burma junta – Chiravut
Rungjamratrasami

The Karen National Union (KNU), a leading ethnic rebel group in Burma,
named a new leader following the mysterious murder of its chief and vowed
Friday to continue its decades-long struggle against the country’s
military junta.

KNU General Secretary Mahn Sha was shot by two gunmen Thursday at his home
in the Thai border town of Mae Sot, according to Thai police.

“We lost one of our leaders but nothing will affect our movement,” said Ba
Thin Sein, president of the KNU, who blamed the killing on troops loyal to
the junta. “The struggle for our cause will continue.”

Thai police who investigated the shooting said the murder may have been
the result of internal differences in the rebel group.

The KNU’s No. 2 official, Htoo Htoo Lay, 61, automatically became the
group’s new leader, according to the KNU’s constitution, Ba Thin Sein
said.

The killing came less than a week after Burma’s military government
announced plans for a referendum on a new constitution in May, to be
followed by a general election in 2010. The plans have been denounced by
the KNU and other opponents of the regime as a sham devised to perpetuate
military rule.

The KNU is one of more than a dozen armed ethnic groups who for decades
have sought greater autonomy from Burma’s central government.

Since 1988, many other groups have signed formal ceasefires with the
ruling State Peace and Development Council (SPDC), but the KNU has not
reached a formal agreement to lay down their arms.

The KNU, which has been fighting for more than five decades, once had a
powerful guerrilla force in Burma’s eastern border region. But Burma army
offensives, coupled with divisions within the organization, have reduced
the group’s military presence over the past decade.

Burma’s military continues to carry out sweeping counterinsurgency
operations in Karen areas along the border with Thailand, displacing
thousands of civilians, many of whom join some 100,000 of their countrymen
in refugee camps in Thailand.

Mahn Sha, 65, took over leadership of the KNU in 2000 from his ailing
predecessor, Bo Mya, who died in 2006. He had been with the KNU since
1963, becoming joint general secretary in 1995 before taking the top post.

Mahn Sha’s funeral was expected to take place over the weekend at a
location in Burma being kept secret due to security concerns, Ba Thin Sein
said.

____________________________________

February 15, Irrawaddy
A good man will never die - Shah Paung

“Can you get my radio?” my father asked.

Then he said, “Your Tee [uncle] Mahn Sha died this afternoon. He was
killed.” At first, I didn’t believe my father’s words.

It was unbelievable because Mahn Sha was loved by most of the people. I
rushed down to the phone station in the refugee camp and called Mahn Sha’s
office, but the phone was busy.

I called a friend, and he said it’s true: He was killed around 4:30 p.m.
by two gunmen at his home in Mae Sot in Tak Province on the Thai-Burmese
border.

I still couldn’t believe it and called my colleagues at The Irrawaddy
office. A staff member said it was true, but he couldn’t talk because they
were working on the story.

I began to cry. I cried for hours. It was not the time for a great leader
like Mahn Sha, the general secretary of the Karen National Union, to die.
He was 65 years old. It was a big loss for the Karen nation, his family
and for the Karen people’s younger generations.

Mahn Sha was not only a good KNU leader; he was also a good leader for the
other democracy activist groups. He had a great love for young people and
always encouraged them to seek more education, to become teachers, health
workers and leaders in their communities. He always hoped young people
would assume responsible roles in life and also work for the Burmese
democracy movement.

Mahn Sha had a gift for words, and he was always calm. When the KNU
delegation led by the late Karen leader Gen Bo Mya went to Rangoon in
December 2005, the delegation excluded Mahn Sha from the talks at the
request of the Burmese government.

But Mahn Sha was unflappable. He talked to the media in wise words, never
exposing the harsh divisions within the KNU leadership.

Some Karen leaders, however, didn’t agree with his political ideology, and
they smeared him, saying he was mad for power and corrupt. But their words
were hollow and without truth.

Mahn Sha was always generous with his time. When I started work as a
journalist at The Irrawaddy years ago, he was the only Karen leader who
always gave me helpful criticism and feedback on my writing and reporting,
suggesting ways for me to grow as a young Karen woman journalist.

Here are some words that I will always remember: “Shah Paung, you are
doing a good job, something we [Karen] have never done before. You are the
first person among our Karen people to do this, and you must carry on this
work.”

Mahn Sha gave me the gift of those words in early 2006 when I was visiting
at his home, where he was shot down in cold blood.

Truly, his death was not only a loss for the Karen movement; it was a big
loss for young Karen people who need inspirational leaders.

Politically, it was also a blow for unity between Pwo Karen and Sakaw
Karen and between Karen Buddhist and other religions, especially
Christians.

Mahn Sha was humble. He lived a simple life. He wasn’t boastful or vain.
He was always trying to achieve unity among the Karen people, and he
lamented the separation in 1995 between the KNU and the breakaway
Democratic Karen Buddhist Army, which split over religious beliefs.

I visited him last in late 2006. He was having lunch, and he invited me to
join him. We had simple vegetables and fish pate. Nothing fancy. He asked
me to visit him in Mae Sot sometime.

Our last conversation was by telephone a few weeks ago. He said, “Now the
State Peace and Development Council is trying to divide our Karen
soldiers, especially those at the grassroots level. But our soldiers don’t
listen to them.”

Mahn Sha always worried that the Karen people will be weakened and lose
control over their future because of divisions among them.

Now he is dead. According to an eyewitness and his office staff, he was
killed by two gunmen, one of whom greeted him in Karen with “Ha Ler Gay”
which means “Good evening.” It appears that a great Karen leader was
killed by a Karen.

Who dares to kill a great leader like Mahn Sha? The answer lies close to
home. Just look at the conflict within the KNU and the armed breakaway
groups. If the Burmese military had wanted to kill Mahn Sha, he wouldn’t
have lived such a long life.

Those who dared to kill Mahn Sha simply don’t understand the value of good
people.
They will probably never understand that his death also diminished the
chances of a better life for younger generations of Karen.

The day after his assassination, many of my friends and older Karen were
still crying.

When I asked how they felt, they answered quickly and emotionally: “Sad
and angry.”

I want the assassins who killed Mahn Sha to know they took his life, but
they can never kill the history of what he did for Burma as well as the
Karen people. A new Karen generation will carry on his work.

Mahn Sha’s name will always live in Karen history and in the history of
the Burmese democracy movement. A good man will never die!

____________________________________

February 15, Mizzima News
Police finds truck used for Mahn Sha's assassination

The Thai police have found and detained the pick-up truck that was used by
the assassins to kill Pado Mahn Sha, general secretary of the Karen
National Union, Burma's longest operating insurgent group.

The police said, the truck, which bears a number plate reading 425, was
found on the Thai side near the bank of Moei River (also known as Thaung
Yin River in Burmese), where the Democratic Buddhist Karen Army (DKBA), a
Karen splinter group is based on the opposite side.

Mizzima's correspondent, who saw the truck, said two women's sandals were
found inside the truck and there were blood stains on the side glasses.

The black coloured four wheel pick-up truck was found to have a Bangkok
registration and the owner was identified as a Thai national living in Mae
Sod's Maepa area.

Police are conducting forensic tests of the finger prints on the vehicle.
They are also interrogating the truck owner as they continue further
investigations into the assassination of the Karen rebel leader.

____________________________________


February 15, Mizzima News
The Sangha must do what they can for the people of Burma: Interview with
Saffron Revolution leading monk U Pyinyarzawta – Nay Thwin

A leading monk of the All Burma Monks Alliance (ABMA), U Pyinyarzawta,
recently reached the Thai-Burma border. He has been on the run and hunted
by the regime since the Saffron Revolution in September of last year.

The Sayadaw (abbot), who led protesters in their recitation of the Metta
Sutra, says that he firmly believes he acted as he did for truth and the
sake of the people, and not for politics.

He is also a colleague of 88-generation student leaders and was previously
arrested, interrogated and imprisoned multiple times. He was also the
Taikoat Sayadaw (Deputy Sayadaw) of the now sealed Maggin Monastery in
Thingangyun Township, Rangoon.

Two of the six founding Sayadaws of ABMA are now behind bars.

He solemnly says that dialogue is essential for the prosperity of the
country.

Q: Your rev. When did you reach the border?

A: Only a few days ago.

Q: We know you as one of the leading monks of the Saffron Revolution, like
Ashin Gambira.

A: U Gambira is one of the members of ABMA. According to the priesthood, I
am the senior-most and most responsible monk among them. There are six
monks in ABMA. I contributed suggestions, experience and knowledge. I was
first arrested in 1990 and imprisoned for three years. Then I was
imprisoned a second time in 1998, for seven years. I am a colleague of Ko
Htay Kywe and Ko Ko Gyi.

Q: Please tell me your age and experience in the priesthood?

A: I'm 48, and have spent 28 years in the priesthood. I'm the Taikoat of
Maggin Monastery.

Q: Is Maggin Monastery sealed now?

A: Yes, The Chairman of ABMA is now in detention at Insein prison. He is
the senior-most Sayadaw of this Monastery and I'm the Taikoat (Deputy).

Q: Please share your memoirs and experiences of the Saffron Revolution.

A: The most significant experience was on the day we started our
Ex-Communicative boycott. We announced that we would start our boycott on
the 18th of September. If we failed to do so, the people would see we
could not keep our promise and it would let everyone down, the entire
Sangha (religious community) and Sasana (religion). We planned to conduct
these boycott rites at five different places in Burma, three in Rangoon
alone. We succeeded in all three places in Rangoon. In Mandalay, they
successfully initiated the boycott on the 19th, instead of the 18th as
planned. First we were skeptical about the chances of successfully
launching the boycott. But we exceeded all our expectations. So, this was
the most thrilling experience for me.

Q: How about your experience of marching in procession with your fellow
monks and chanting the Metta Sutra?

A: I did not march with experienced monks at the forefront, but took a
leading role by rallying around them and managing the work that had to be
done. If I marched with them at the forefront the movement would have been
instantly exposed and dealt with. So I didn't march at the front. The
leading monks in these processions were leading monks of member monk
organizations in our alliance.

Q: How did you flee from arrest after the movement?

A: I'll tell you what I can, but I must protect the safety of people who
are still in Burma. The regime raided our Maggin Monastery on the 26th of
September. Starting several days before the Saffron Revolution, following
the arrests in August of my colleagues Min Ko Naing and Ko Ko Gyi, I
hadn't stayed at my Monastery. Then we formed the monk alliance. I was
outside the Monastery when they raided. Since the crackdown I have been on
the run at many hideouts with the assistance of friends, monk colleagues,
devotees and my students. During this time we have worked together to
reorganize our monk alliance. I'd like to say we have made all necessary
preparations.

Q: When did you realize the movement must be led by the monks?

A: We have had many monk organizations for a long time prior the August
fuel price hike demonstrations and September revolution – including the
Young Monks Association, Sangha Union, Rangoon Young Monks Union and
Thawtuzana. We already had the idea of joining with the people and
pro-democracy forces when the time was ripe. When the junta suddenly and
drastically raised the price of fuel, the people resented the action and
took to the streets. Then the junta cracked down on their movement with
their thugs, USDA and Swan Arr Shin, and their movement was disrupted. So
we prepared to continue their unfinished task by forming a monk alliance
in Mandalay. But our movement broke out in Pakokku, so we then let the
media know of our intention to initiate a boycott against the regime. In
Pakokku too, the leading monks of the movement are from our monk
organizations.

Q: What is the ultimate goal of your monk organization?

A: We'll do anything which will be good for the people and the country.
But our movement must be in accordance with our religion and for the good
of the people, because our organization is not a political organization.
We will act only for the national cause.

Q: What made you decide to flee to the border and leave Burma?

A: I didn't want to give trouble to anyone who harbored me while I was on
the run and being hunted. I feared they also might give trouble to my
family, relatives, devotees and students. So I decided to flee to the
border to avoid such miserable things.

Q: Can another movement like the Saffron Revolution emerge again?

A: We must wait for some time. When the time is ripe, it will happen
again. When the people's resentment against the regime reaches a certain
level and they decide to express their discontent, we will be prepared to
join. Such a situation will create the atmosphere for another Saffron
Revolution or something similar. I see now that preparations are being
made by monks, students and pro-democracy forces for just such a time.

Q: Now I'd like to go back to the current situation. The junta has
announced that they will go ahead with their roadmap. How should the
people respond to their plan?

A: The people in Burma can do two things. The first one is to protest, but
it has many limitations. The junta would arrest them, imprison them, kill
them and shoot them. The other thing the people can do to express their
will and desire is to implement a boycott of the referendum. These actions
are simply exercising their rights. They can protest against the
referendum or they can denounce the referendum. I hope all pro-democracy
forces will do what they can. This is a crucial time for all of us. We
must have a concerted effort to achieve our goals.

Q: What is your opinion on the ruling government?

A: They are making simple things complicated. They didn't keep their
promises to transfer power to the winning party after the 1990 general
election. The current crisis can be resolved by entering into dialogue.
But they are only concerned with their own interests and look to cling to
power by holding this referendum and a new election in 2010.

Q: Some say that monks should stay away from politics. What is your opinion?

A: Politics is a vast and broad field. We are not involved in politics,
this is just an accusation made against us by the regime. We will not form
a political party and we will not contest parliamentary elections. We
don't even have the right to vote. We are monks, not politicians. But even
in the reign of King Narathihapate, Shin Dethaparmaukha acted as a
diplomat for the sake of the country and the people. The monks are acting
for the sake of the people and the country in a perspective of religion
similar to that of Shin Dethaparmaukha. We are not conducting politics.

Q: How do you see the role of the Sangha Mahanayaka (the highest
government sponsored monk organization)?

A: This is the highest organ of monks and Sasana in Burma. This
organization once issued an appeal to the junta and the people at the
height of the 1988 uprising. Again, this is not politics, it is religion.
They appealed to the government to stop the killing and torture. They
appealed to the people to keep discipline. Similarly they should again
appeal to the government in consideration of the people and the country.
In this way they will gain dignity and respect for themselves and the
Sasana. So I wish the Sangha Mahanayaka will appeal to the government and
stand boldly for truth and justice.

Q: Can they take such a position?

A: If they want to, they can. If they want to avoid such a situation, they
can. No one can blame them for it. If they can do it, it will be very much
to the benefit of the people and country. I think they should do it. It is
right and not contrary to the Buddhist disciplinary code.

____________________________________
GUNS

February 15, Irrawaddy
Burma to attend Indian Arms Fair - Violet Cho

Burma will send an official delegation to Asia's largest arms fair,
Defexpo, which will be held from Saturday to Tuesday in New Delhi, India.

The arms show will allow the Burmese junta an opportunity to negotiate new
arms contracts, expand their arms trading partners and attend seminars on
new weapons technology.

The Indian Defence Exhibition Organization, the main sponsor of Defexpo,
confirmed that Association of Southeast Asian Nations member countries
including Burma will attend the international arms show, but declined to
say who would participate from the Burmese military government.

Other countries attending the fair are the United States, Canada, South
Korea, South Africa, France, Germany, the UK, Sweden, Norway, Italy as
well as countries that regularly sell arms to Burma—Russia and Ukraine.
China has said it will not attend the event. Indian arms corporations will
have a large presence at the exhibition.

Asked if EU member states' participation in Defexpo condones arms sales to
Burma, Christiane Hohmann, a European Commission External Relations and
European Neighbourhood Policy spokesperson, said there is no official
European Community position on attending foreign arms fairs like Defexpo.

“This is an exhibition organized in India,” she said. “The participants
have to decide on their own who wants to participate. There is no EU
policy on that so the member states can decide to go there. It's their
decision.”

Since 2006, the Council of European Union has renewed restrictive measures
against the Burmese government and has adopted common positions which
state that EU members cannot participate in activities that circumvent the
prohibition to “provide technical assistance, brokering services and other
services related to military activities and to the provision, manufacture,
maintenance and use of arms and related materiel of all types, including
weapons and ammunition, military vehicles and equipment, paramilitary
equipment, and spare parts for the aforementioned, as well as equipment
which might be used for internal repression, directly or indirectly to any
natural or legal person for use in Burma.”

According to the UK-based Campaign Against Arms Trade, which campaigns
against UK participation in global arms fairs, in the last Defexpo in
2006, the UK Minister for Defences Procurement, Lord Drayson, led the
official of UK delegation.

Bo Hla Tint, a member of Burma's government-in-exile, the National
Coalition Government of the Union of Burma, and an elected member of the
parliament, told The Irrawaddy that Western participation in Defexpo shows
the hypocrisy of arms embargoes against Burma.

“They look out for their own interests,” he said. “If Western governments
don't want Burma to participate in Defexpo, they can easily ask the Indian
Government to exclude them, but they don't do it. It is much more
important for them to show their new arms technology to other countries
rather than making a fuss about Burma. Big countries don't think about
Burma when their interests are at risk.”

According to News Post India, the US has the largest representation at
Defexpo, with 46 companies including Boeing, Lockheed Martin and Northrop
Grumman, along with the US Defense Department.

India is a growing export market for US arms.

____________________________________
REGIONAL

February 15, Japan Economic Newswire
Japan to send police, Foreign Ministry officials to Myanmar

Japan will send National Police Agency and Foreign Ministry officials to
Myanmar next week to discuss the state of investigations by Myanmar
authorities into the fatal shooting of Japanese video journalist Kenji
Nagai in September, government sources said Friday.

The Myanmar junta has accepted a request from Japan that the two countries
set up a framework for official discussions by experts to uncover the
facts of the shooting incident.

Foreign Minister Masahiko Komura made the request when he met his Myanmar
counterpart Nyan Win in Tokyo in January.

Nagai was fatally shot by security forces while he was covering
antigovernment demonstrations in Myanmar last September.

While Japanese police investigators have found that Nagai was shot from
close range, Myanmar maintains that the shooting was "accidental."

____________________________________
OPINION / OTHER

February 16, The Economist
If voting changed anything; Myanmar: the junta's cunning plan

The junta would not contemplate allowing Myanmar's people to do it twice

Nobody could accuse the generals who run Myanmar of making hasty reforms.
Their handpicked assembly took 14 years to decide the framework of a new
constitution. A self-declared 2003 roadmap to democracy has so far proved
long on detours and short on direction. So the junta's surprise
declaration last week that it would hold a constitutional referendum in
May and multi-party elections in 2010 should be cause for cheers. But
Myanmar's winding path to democracy is littered with too many false starts
for much optimism.

The constitution is still being fine-tuned, but its bedrock is little
changed since the process began in 1993. A version previewed last
September would reserve one-quarter of seats in the national parliament
for army appointees, assign key ministries to top brass and permit army
chiefs to declare a state of emergency when they deem fit. Analysts say
the reclusive regime hankers after a "disciplined democracy" that keeps
pesky dissidents out of power. That applies above all to Aung San Suu Kyi,
the detained opposition leader, who is banned from office as the widow of
a foreigner, and her National League for Democracy. It won Myanmar's last
election in 1990. But the army refused to honour the outcome. Little
wonder, then, that dissidents snort at the prospects for a free and fair
choice in the junta's two-step ballot.

Foreign reactions have also been cool: Australia and America dismissed the
planned referendum as a "sham", while Japan lamented the exclusion of Miss
Suu Kyi from the process. Ban Ki-moon, the United Nations
secretary-general, said he was glad to see a timeframe for political
reforms but urged the regime to reach out to its opponents. As the world
winced last September at Myanmar's violent crackdown on peaceful monk-led
demonstrators, the UN Security Council united in condemnation. After
pushing talks between Miss Suu Kyi and the regime, however, its special
envoy, Ibrahim Gambari, is now reduced to begging for another visa (not
until April, comes the reply). Myanmar stonewalled previous UN envoys into
silence. Without a more robust mandate, Mr Gambari may well suffer the
same fate.

Some analysts credit China, Myanmar's second-largest trading partner, with
nudging the junta into what looks like a concession. The theory is that,
ahead of the Beijing Olympics, it wants to stop its links with Myanmar
becoming another target of human-rights campaigners (see page 71). Asian
neighbours, eyeing Myanmar's resources, are happy to play along.
Singapore, the current chair of the Association of South-East Asian
Nations, duly praised the election timetable. ASEAN's new chief, Surin
Pitsuwan, said the regime should get the benefit of the doubt.

But outside pressure has its limits. Thant Myint-u, a Burmese historian,
says the army is focused far more on internal politics and the quelling of
ethnic insurgencies than on its sullied international name. Those dynamics
may suggest 2010 as opportune for a military-civilian administration that
can accommodate the ambitions of junior generals and armed groups now
observing ceasefires. The junta's leader, Than Shwe, is also said to be
anxious to protect his family and its fortune after he departs. Such
concerns easily trump any external pressure to work with Miss Suu Kyi and
her ageing cadres.

Staging a referendum less than a year after the brutal crushing of popular
dissent could yet backfire, though. Aung Naing Oo, an exiled Burmese
analyst, says activists see it as a potential spark for resistance,
particularly if the army clumsily rigs the ballot. Elections are
unpredictable even in Myanmar. The 1990 one did not go the generals' way.
Myanmar is still living with the consequences.

____________________________________

February 15, Irrawaddy
Divided they fall - Yeni

The death of 65-year-old Padoh Mahn Sha, the KNU's secretary general, is
not only a great loss for the Karen people, but also for the pro-democracy
movement in Burma.

Nobody knows yet who committed the assassination. Several dissidents along
the Thai-Burmese border claim the killing was ordered by the Burmese junta
and that they might target other exiled leaders based in Thailand,
especially in Mae Sot. Members of the border-based opposition suggest the
KNU general secretary was at the top of a junta hit list.

However, the Thai police have confirmed that an eyewitness stated that
Mahn Sha was killed by two gunmen who greeted him in Karen language. Karen
sources suspect the gunmen were members of the Democratic Karen Buddhist
Army (DKBA), a Karen splinter group that broke with the KNU in 1995 and is
now allied with the Burma army.

What is indisputable is that Mahn Sha’s death follows a series of attacks,
killings and assassination attempts between mainstream KNU members and
splinter groups, such as the DKBA and the breakaway Brigade 7, now known
as KNU/KNLA Peace Council.

In August 2007, the body of Lt-Col Kyi Linn, commander of the Karen
National Liberation Army (KNLA), was found with a bullet wound to the head
in the Haungthayaw River in Kawkareik Township of Karen State. Anonymous
sources from the KNU rivals claimed Kyi Linn was shot by his own soldiers
under orders from the KNU leadership after he had met secretly with Lt-Col
Min Chit Oo of the Burmese Southeast Military Affairs Security department
without the KNU leaders’ knowledge.

In 2004 Gen Bo Mya visited Rangoon for peace talks with then Prime
Minister Khin Nyunt. The resulting “gentlemen’s agreement” stayed in force
until Bo Mya’s death in December 2006. Things steadily went downhill
thereafter.

The KNU broke off all communications with the junta in February 2007, when
Brig-Gen Htain Maung, the former head of KNU Brigade 7, and some 300 KNU
soldiers, defected to the Burmese army.

Tensions peaked after Col Ler Moo, the son-in-law of breakaway leader
Htain Maung, was killed in a bomb attack while sleeping at a
communications office near the group’s headquarters in December 2007.

Soon after, troops from the KNLA—the military wing of the KNU—attacked a
bus on the Myawaddy road carrying DKBA soldiers, killing eight people and
injuring six. The sabotage of the bus followed a dry season offensive in
which the DKBA reportedly attacked Karen civilians in Brigade 6,
apparently at the behest of the Burmese military authorities and their
continued policy of using the DKBA to undertake offensives against
civilians in Karen State and Pegu Division.

The KNU have been fighting for independence since 1949, one of the world's
longest-running guerrilla conflicts. However, if the previous few years’
events are anything to go by, the collective aspirations of the Karen
people will surely be no more than a pipe dream.

The assassination of Padoh Mahn Sha is the deepest loss the KNU has
suffered since the 1950 killing of Ba U Gyi, a former colonial-era Burmese
cabinet minister and then leader of the Karen resistance, who was shot in
a Burmese army ambush.

On this occasion, however, the evidence points to the assassination being
the result of a divided Karen house.

Surely the generals in Naypyidaw are smugly laughing to themselves today.

____________________________________

February 15, Time
Pre-Emptive Strike - Joshua Kurlantzick

The remarkable courage shown by Burma's marching monks last September
captured the world's imagination. The protests encouraged Western
governments, many of which first imposed economic sanctions against
Rangoon a decade ago, to broaden those measures; the E.U., for example,
has now banned a far wider range of exports from Burma.

Sadly, this strategy will prove as ineffective as past such actions
against the junta. Sanctions that only heap more restrictions on Burmese
exports will have no impact on the ruling generals. The junta has
demonstrated that it does not care about Western opinion and has no
genuine interest in dialogue. Indeed, negotiations between the generals
and democracy icon Aung San Suu Kyi, which were jump-started by the U.N.
after the September protests, have stalled, and many dissidents have been
rearrested. On Feb. 9 the junta said it would hold a referendum on a new
constitution in May and hold a general election in 2010, but the new
constitution effectively bars Suu Kyi from political office and the last
time the junta held a general election, in 1990, it refused to recognize
the victory of the National League for Democracy, Suu Kyi's party.

The generals, thus, are not to be trusted. Instead, the outside world
needs to hit them directly in their pockets, where they are vulnerable,
while avoiding collateral damage to the wider Burmese population.
Lower-profile financial measures also will appeal to China and to ASEAN,
which is allergic to public shaming of the junta. Singapore, ASEAN's
current chairman, has ruled out either imposing new sanctions or booting
Burma out of ASEAN.

The junta and its business allies do not save their money in Burma's
shambles of a banking system; they stash their hard currency in offshore
centers. Tough but quiet financial sanctions, focusing on freezing assets
of a list of junta leaders and their allies, could cut off the generals'
income with little cost to average Burmese. These measures have worked
against tyrants before; they disabled Serbian tyrant Slobodan Milosevic's
finances and put pressure on North Korean strongman Kim Jong Il - after
Washington publicly identified a bank in the Chinese territory of Macau as
a major conduit for North Korean money, the bank froze many North Korean
accounts.

Along with a financial crackdown, an international arms embargo against
the generals would have an impact without causing wider pain. Without new
weaponry provided at discount rates, the junta would have to spend vastly
more of its own money equipping the second largest army in Southeast Asia.
This would leave far less to support the military's vast parallel
social-welfare system, including separate health care and schools for
soldiers, which is vital to ensuring the average grunt's loyalty to the
generals rather than to the Burmese people.

A comprehensive embargo, led by Asian nations, also would allow the U.S.
to step back from the public face of pressure on Burma. The junta, always
on the lookout for "neocolonialism," could not portray the action as
simply the West ganging up on poor Burma.

After last fall's crackdown, India promised to stop arms sales to Rangoon.
China could be persuaded to go along. Beijing has already cut off
non-humanitarian aid to other rogue nations like Zimbabwe. As with Burma,
Robert Mugabe's regime stained China's international image; Beijing also
fretted that unrest against the Mugabe government might spark local anger
at Chinese interests. Chinese diplomats privately admit that Beijing fears
that violent instability in Burma might threaten Beijing's investments -
in October, with Burmese resentment of China soaring, gunmen fired on the
Chinese consulate in Mandalay. Embargo commitments by those Asian giants
would push the junta's other weapons suppliers to fall in line, or risk
standing alone in their support for the generals.


Of course, launching quiet, targeted measures does not mean that
international ngos and activists should refrain from publicizing the
junta's atrocities or stop offering moral support to suffering Burmese
democrats. Public-attention campaigns, followed inside Burma through
foreign radio stations, give courage to Burmese dissidents. They keep
Burma's cause in the world's media. They engage a new generation of
human-rights activists around the globe. But moral support alone cannot
triumph in a fight against an immoral regime. Putting the squeeze on the
generals' cash is different. That would truly be payback.

http://www.time.com/time/magazine/article/0,9171,1713340,00.html