BurmaNet News, February 21, 2008

[Editor]

February 21, 2008 Issue # 3407


INSIDE BURMA
Mizzima News: Opposition in Burma calls for free referendum
Mizzima News: Reform of government in exile agreed in principle
Irrawaddy: USDA starts recruitment drive ahead of referendum
DVB: Boatwoman’s licence revoked for helping NLD members
DVB: Authorities restrict Chin national day celebrations

ON THE BORDER
Narinjara News: Demonstration against senior Burmese Monks in Bangladesh
Irrawaddy: DKBA members kill Mahn Sha: Karen sources

BUSINESS / TRADE
Mizzima News: Air Bagan suspends flights to Putao

ASEAN
Bangkok Post via AFP: Bangkok will ratify Asean charter in June

INTERNATIONAL
AFP: UN envoy to raise Suu Kyi poll ban with Myanmar
AP: UK union calls for Lonely Planet boycott

OPINION / OTHER
World Politics Review: Burmese regime's 'roadmap' to democracy likely
leads to dead end
Manila Times: Ban on Suu Kyi shatters hopes for Myanmar polls
Shan Herald Agency for News: Is there a way out for the opposition?


____________________________________
INSIDE BURMA

February 21, Mizzima News
Opposition in Burma calls for free referendum

Ethnic and pro-democracy forces based in Burma today called for the
referendum in May to be conducted freely and fairly.

Generation Wave (GW) said in a statement issued today that they call on
the junta to give the people fundamental rights during the referendum
process, such as free speech, free association and organization,
international monitoring, an independent referendum commission, a free and
fair electoral system inclusive of polling booths and ballot boxes and a
reliable vote counting system. GW also demanded the release of all
political prisoners including Daw Aung San Suu Kyi.

"We have chosen a path in which the people can play an integral part. If
we attack and boycott the referendum it will provide a way out for the
SPDC. In our position we have factored in both international and domestic
considerations. We chose this path because it is homogeneous between the
international community and the people of Burma and does not weaken the
organization of the people," Ko Kyaw Kyaw, a spokesperson for GW told
Mizzima.

GW affirms that they will not accept the new draft constitution which was
designed without the consent of the NLD and ethnic forces and which
ignored the 1990 general election result.

In their missive GW makes known that they will continue their revolution
against the planned referendum with mass and class support if the SPDC
does not meet their demands by the end of March. However they did not
elaborate on the details of their plans.

The Kachin Independence Organization (KIO) gave a similar warning
yesterday. The KIO said that the government needs to hold a free and fair
referendum and to make sure the entire people can express their genuine
desire both freely and democratically.

"The main point is for the referendum to be free and fair, incorporating
all appropriate criteria. The ruling government might have their own
intentions as to how the referendum will be conducted. Therefore we say we
need a free and fair referendum. We considered and weighed our position
with this in mind," Col. Gun Maw, a spokesman for KIO told Mizzima.

The KIO position also calls for the formation of an appropriate monitoring
unit to ensure the referendum is free and fair and so that the result of
the referendum can be respected and recognized by all.

"We have yet to decide on reforming our organization or political party.
We are in a wait and see position. It will depend on what the ruling
government will do and what the response of the people is, only then will
the KIO decide on a course of action", Col. Gwan Maw added.

Ko Tun Myint Aung from the 88 Generation Students urges the SPDC to
implement the recommendations of GW.

"The people expressed their will and desire very clearly in the September
movement by sacrificing their lives. Now the people want to cast a 'NO'
vote in this referendum. If the junta says the referendum result is 'YES',
it must be a sheer lie and due to vote rigging. If they hold a free and
fair referendum, the result will certainly be 'NO'", he stressed.

____________________________________

February 21, Mizzima News
Reform of government in exile agreed in principle – Nay Thwin

The Members of Parliament in exile have agreed to reform the government in
exile in principle at its meeting which concluded yesterday.

Members of Parliamentary Union (MPU) which holds its congress every four
years concluded its last congress held on Thai-Burma border on Wednesday.
In the congress, the MPs in exile agreed in principle to reform and
enlarge the 'National Coalition Government of the Union of Burma' (NCGUB)
led by Prime Minister Dr. Sein Win with MPs, ethnic leaders and other
appropriate members. But the date to enlarge and reform the current NCGUB
has not yet been fixed.

The MPU Congress was attended by 24 out of 34 MPs and Prime Minister Dr.
Sein Win joined the deliberations by way of the internet. Dr. Sein Win is
a cousin brother of Daw Aung San Suu Kyi.

For the reforms of the NCGUB to materialize, thorough discussions and
deliberations will be undertaken among the coalition umbrella organization
of exiled united fronts, 'National Council for Union of Burma' (NCUB) led
by general secretary Maung Maung and border based ethnic organizations.

NCUB is comprised of four member organizations such as the 'National
League for Democracy – Liberated Area' (NLD-LA), MPU, armed ethnic groups
united front 'National Democratic Front' (NDF) and 'Democratic Alliance of
Burma' (DAB).

The issue of reforming and enlarging NCGUB, which was formed in December
1990, was controversial and needs to be debated among the ethnic leaders
and other democratic forces. Currently there are six members in the
Council of Ministers of NCGUB, Dr. Sein Win, U Thein Oo, U Bo Hla Tint,
Dr. Tint Swe, U Khun Mar Kobarn and Dr. San Aung.

Similarly NLD-LA agreed in principle to reform the NCGUB in its meeting
concluded recently, but the detailed plan has not yet been fixed and
discussed.

"We haven't chosen the form of reformed NCGUB. We will seek professional
opinions and suggestions on how to form and how to collect ideas when all
have agreed to do so. And also we will take the opinions of ethnic leaders
and then integrate all these ideas and reform the current NCGUB," NLD-LA
General Secretary Myint Soe told Mizzima.

"We will continue and implement our work. If they (junta) continue with
their own plan unilaterally despite the oppositions' repeated calls for
tripartite dialogue, we must stand firmly on our position regardless of
the threat of being arrested and killed. This is what the people from
inside Burma are thinking of," he added.

Khun Myint Tun, one of the MPs in exile agrees with the idea of expansion
saying "Currently the NCGUB can do its work. But we will try to make the
NCGUB stronger and a more effective government in exile, which can give
effective leadership to the whole movement".

A NCGUB Minister Khun Mar Kobarn objected to the expansion and said that
the previous thinking of forming the 'Federal Government' and 'National
United Government' is almost impossible in a pragmatic manner and is just
a 'fantasy'.

He was referring to a case in their first Council of Ministers. There were
Ministers of Labour, Minister of Forest, and Minister of Mining among
others. But later these ministries were reduced due to financial
constraints and practical reasons.

The spokesman of the 'Communist Party of Burma' (CPB), said that all
movements in exile should focus on enhancing domestic movements.

"It is important to build domestic infrastructures which will help the
domestic movements. All other work must lead to this road," he added.

____________________________________

February 21, Irrawaddy
USDA starts recruitment drive ahead of referendum – Saw Yan Naing

Members of a mass-based organization backed by Burma’s ruling junta have
begun a recruitment campaign to drum up support for an upcoming national
referendum, according to Rangoon residents.

A resident of Hlaing Thayar Township in the former Burmese capital told
The Irrawaddy on Wednesday that members of the Union Solidarity and
Development Association (USDA) have been conducting a low-key membership
drive in the area since February 2.

“They [members of the USDA] have been calling residents at night, telling
them good things about the regime and asking them to join their
organization,” he said. “They also said that they will build new roads and
clinics for the residents if they register as members.”

But many have responded coolly to the organization’s efforts to lobby on
behalf of the regime, which ordered a brutal crackdown on peaceful
demonstrators in September 2007.

Sources within the USDA revealed last week that the association had been
tasked with organizing the referendum—set to take place in May—on a
constitution drafted by delegates handpicked by the ruling military
regime.

USDA members at the township and district levels will form local
commissions to oversee voting in the referendum, said sources close to the
organization. They would also be involved in preparations for general
elections slated for 2010, according to the sources.

One source who requested anonymity said that the USDA was recruiting
respected local people to serve on the referendum and election
commissions. The USDA is also looking for wealthy and well-educated
candidates to run in the elections, the source added.

The USDA, which was formed in 1993 to rally mass support for the regime,
has 24 million members. It has also been instrumental in efforts to
intimidate opposition activists and civilians.

USDA members played a key role in the bloody crackdown on the 2007
uprising and in a deadly attack on Aung San Suu Kyi’s motorcade in 2003,
in which about 100 people were killed.

____________________________________

February 21, Democratic Voice of Burma
Boatwoman’s licence revoked for helping NLD members – Naw Say Phaw

A boatwoman who took National League for Democracy members across the
river for a religious ceremony has had her licence revoked by the
authorities.

Dr Aung Moe Nyo, and NLD members and people’s parliament representative
from Pwint Phyu township, Magwe division, said that the woman and her two
family members were left with no source of income after her licence was
taken away 10 days ago.

The boatwoman took Dr Aung Moe Nyo and five other NLD members across the
river to Yay Nan Chaung on 4 February after government officials had tried
to make all the local boatmen sign an agreement promising not to transport
them.

The woman and her two family members were arrested on 5 February and
detained overnight at Salin police station.

Dr Aung Moe Nyo said the NLD members wanted to help the woman and her
family as they felt responsible for her predicament.

“They are really short of money and have nothing to eat, so the NLD
members feel guilty because these people are being punished for trying to
help us,” he said.

The group decided to bring food and money to the family, but was prevented
from giving it to them by the authorities.

“NLD members from Yay Nan Chaung, Pwint Phyu and Saku township decided to
help them with some money,” Dr Aung Moe Nyo said.

“But the authorities found out about it and now there are police officers
waiting at their house to prevent NLD members from showing up and giving
these people money.”

Dr Aung Moe Nyo said the group had already raised money for the family and
was just waiting for the opportunity to give it to them.

“We are standing by to help these people and we are waiting to go to their
house to give them support whenever we can,” he said.

“We are only trying to help this poor family, and the government should
not [
] prevent poor and starving people from receiving help.”

____________________________________

February 21, Democratic Voice of Burma
Military forces out villagers in Mon state – Htet Augn Kyaw

Residents of Klone Kanyar village were given orders by State Peace and
Development Council troops on 1 February to leave their village within 15
days.

Around 250 villagers were ordered to relocate from the eastern part of
Klone Kanyar village, which is in Khaw Za sub-township, part of Mon
state’s Yay township.

The order to relocate has caused major difficulties for the villagers,
particularly as many rely on the village’s fishing industry for their
livelihoods.

Klone Kanyar residents are now speculating that the rest of the villagers
could also be forced to leave.

According to a villager who fled to the Thai-Burma border, the SPDC troops
said the move was to prevent Mon rebels from coming into the area.

The order was issued by Light Infantry Battalion-31 commander colonel Ye
Lwin Oo and secondary battalion commander major Htun Naing.

The New Mon State Party, the major Mon rebel group, has signed a ceasefire
agreement with the government, but there are reports that a group of 50
fully-armed Mon fighters has broken away from the NMSP to continue with
rebel activities.

____________________________________

February 21, Democratic Voice of Burma
Authorities restrict Chin national day celebrations – Aye Nai

An event to mark Chin national day was held yesterday at the Lion City
Hall in Kamaryut township, Rangoon, despite government restrictions.

Around 10,000 people reportedly attended the colourful celebration, which
began at 1pm and included speeches, music and food.

An ethnic Chin who attended the event said that the government would not
allow them to celebrate Chin national day so they had to find a way around
it.

“We were not allowed to hold the celebration under the title of Chin
national day, so we just called it a welcome party for new university
students,” he said.

“But we always knew we were celebrating Chin national day, and we talked
about it that way to each other.”

Celebrations also took place at the Win Place hotel in Chiang Mai,
Thailand, where around 250 people from Chin and other ethnic groups came
to watch the day’s events, including traditional Chin and Lahu dance.

One of the event’s organisers said he was disappointed they could not
celebrate the day fully in Burma.

“Chin national day is a special day for us, but it is sad that we can’t
celebrate our national day freely,” the organiser said.

“But we can’t do anything about that as there is no way we could hold it
inside Burma, so we make it as special as we can outside.”

Chin people in exile in other foreign countries also held celebrations to
mark national day yesterday.

Chin people voted to establish Chin national day on 20 February 1948,
which marks the day Sao Shwe Thike, Burma’s first president after
independence, came to visit Chin state.

Celebrating Chin national day was allowed under the Ne Win government, but
has since been banned by the ruling State Peace and Development Council.

____________________________________
ON THE BORDER

February 21, Narinjara News
Demonstration against senior Burmese Monks in Bangladesh

Burmese monks and democratic activists in Bangladesh staged a protest on
Wednesday in the border town of Cox's Bazar against senior monks visiting
from Burma.

U Thawara, a Burmese monk, said, "We started our demonstration in Cox's
Bazar around 3 pm yesterday to protest against five government-backed
Burmese monks visiting Bangladesh. About 40 Burmese people joined in the
demonstration."

The demonstration occurred after five senior Burmese monks came to
Bangladesh to attend a religious festival at a town of Bandarban District
in Bangladesh.

"We have evidence that they came to Bangladesh to organize monks in
Bangladesh to support the current military government, so we had to stage
a demonstration against them from Bangladesh soil," the monk said.

The Burmese military authority recently sent monks abroad on missions to
organize the sangha in support of the junta and to stop the monk boycott
of the military.

The five senior monks are also suspected of having come to Bangladesh to
organize Bangladeshi monks in supporting the military government of Burma.

Monks in Bangladesh are still boycotting the Burmese military government
by not cooperating with the demands of the junta and by not accepting any
offerings such as food from those associated with the military, after the
ruthless crackdown on the monk-led protests in Burma in September 2007.

"It was first demonstration in Cox's Bazar staged by Burmese citizens and
our demonstration was successful," said U Thawara

It has also been learned that local Bangladeshi officials intervened in
the religious festival in Bandarban and denied the five senior monks
entrance to the town after rumors spread that monks in Bangladesh would
protest the festival if the senior Burmese monks attended.

____________________________________

February 21, Irrawaddy
DKBA members kill Mahn Sha: Karen sources – Violet Cho

Members of the Democratic Karen Buddhist Army (DKBA), a Karen splinter
group, were confirmed to be involved in the assassination of Karen leader
Mahn Sha, according to sources close to the DKBA.

According to one source close to DKBA leaders, the killing was most likely
carried out by San Pyote (a.k.a. Soe Myint) and several other members of
DKBA Battalion 999 who disappeared from territory controlled by the group
shortly after last Thursday’s shooting death of Mahn Sha, who was the
general secretary of the Karen National Union (KNU).

The DKBA signed a ceasefire agreement with the Burmese military regime
after it split away from the KNU in 1995.

Another DKBA source said that San Pyote was not acting under DKBA orders
when he carried out the assassination. The commander of DKBA Battalion
999, Col Chit Thu, will soon respond to charges that the killing was
committed by DKBA members under his command and “take action for the
assassination,” the source added.

The Irrawaddy was unable to reach Col Chit Thu for comment, and the DKBA
has not yet responded to accusations that they were behind the killing of
the KNU leader.

San Pyote, who was described as a notorious gambler, was said to be close
to Maj-Gen Htain Maung, a former commander in the Karen National
Liberation Army (KNLA), the KNU’s military wing. Htain Maung led the
KNLA’s 7th Brigade until he defected to the Burmese army last February
with 300 soldiers under his command.

According to a senior KNU official, Htain Maung may also have been
involved in Mahn Sha’s slaying.

Mahn Sha’s death came two weeks after Col Ler Moo, Htain Maung’s
son-in-law, was killed in his sleep in an office near the headquarters of
the KNU/KNLA Peace Council, a group formed by Htain Maung following his
defection.

Meanwhile, Thai authorities have closed all border checkpoints near
DKBA-controlled areas following Mahn Sha’s shooting. Only the Friendship
Bridge linking Mae Sot and the Burmese border town of Myawaddy remains
open for trade between the two countries.

Police in Mae Sot, where the KNU leader was murdered, have begun an
investigation into the incident. According to a KNU official, local
authorities in Mae Sot have arrested a Thai man who lent his car to Mahn
Sha’s killers.

Despite a pledge from the police that they would apprehend the murderers,
KNU leaders said they didn’t expect much from the Thai investigation.

“As neither the victim nor the gunmen were Thai citizens, I don’t think
the Thai authorities will take this case seriously,” said David Taw, a KNU
spokesperson, who acknowledged that it would be difficult for Thai police
to catch the cross-border killers.
____________________________________
BUSINESS / TRADE

February 21, Mizzima News
Air Bagan suspends flights to Putao

Air Bagan has suspended its flights to Putao in Northern Burma's Kachin
State from today after an aircraft broke into two while taking off in
Putao airport on Tuesday.

On February 19, an Air Bagan plane, ATR 72, failed to take off and broke
into two. The aircraft overran about 300 feet off the airport's runway.
Air Bagan's owner Tayza has left for Putao to inspect the plane.

There were six foreign tourists along with two officials of the American
embassy in the aircraft, sources in the airline said.

While the pilot broke his hand, the rest of the 57 passengers were
reportedly unhurt.

____________________________________
ASEAN

February 21, Bangkok Post via AFP
Bangkok will ratify Asean charter in June – Thanida Tansubhapol

Thailand will ratify the Asean charter in June with the hope it will be
endorsed by all members when Bangkok hosts a summit in December. The
announcement was made by Foreign Minister Noppadon Pattama at the two-day
annual Asean Foreign Ministers Retreat meeting in Singapore.

Mr Noppadon said he hoped the 10-member Association of Southeast Asian
Nations would celebrate its charter when Asean leaders meet in Bangkok for
a summit in mid-December.

The charter, to be signed by Asean leaders in Singapore in November, will
turn the grouping into a rules-based organisation similar to the European
Union. Singapore, Laos, Brunei and Malaysia have already ratified the
charter.

Mr Noppadon said Thailand would not be able to ratify the charter sooner
than June because some laws have yet to be amended and approved by
parliament to clear the way for ratification.

The Philippines earlier refused to ratify the charter until Burma releases
opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi, who is still under house arrest, and
addresses human rights issues.

But Mr Noppadon said Manila had changed its mind and promised to try to
ratify the charter at the Asean summit in December.

The situation in Burma was the main issue of concern during talks between
the Asean foreign ministers on Tuesday.

They wanted Burma to hold elections in 2010 as scheduled and made clear
that Burma's constitutional referendum must be credible.

Burmese Foreign Minister Nyan Win reaffirmed that Mrs Suu Kyi would be
banned from the elections because her husband was a foreigner, according
to Singapore Foreign Minister George Yeo.

''He [Nyan Win] was quite clear that under the new constitution, a citizen
of Burma who has a foreign husband, who has children who are not citizens
of Burma, would be disqualified as per the 1974 constitution,'' said Mr
Yeo.

Mrs Suu Kyi was married to Michael Aris, a British citizen, who died of
cancer in Britain in 1999. Their two children also are British nationals.

The Asean foreign ministers left the issue of whether to recognise
Kosovo's independence up to individual nations.

As for Thailand, Mr Noppadon said the government will wait until the
United Nations Security Council announces its official position on the
issue before making any move. Kosovo declared independence from Serbia on
Sunday.

Meanwhile, Indonesian Foreign Minister Hussan Warajuda agreed in talks
with Mr Noppadon to release 20 Thai fishermen arrested recently as
Thailand has promised to support investment in the fishery industry in
Indonesia as well as exchanging fishing technology.

____________________________________
INTERNATIONAL

February 21, Agence-France Press
UN envoy to raise Suu Kyi poll ban with Myanmar

The UN envoy to Myanmar, Ibrahim Gambari, said Thursday that he would
raise the issue of Aung San Suu Kyi being banned from 2010 elections when
he visits the military regime as early as next month.

The ruling junta said this week that democracy icon Aung San Suu Kyi would
be barred from running in polls slated under a proposed constitution,
which has been drafted for approval in a May referendum.

Asked about the ban and whether the election would be pointless without
Aung San Suu Kyi's participation, Gambari told reporters: "These are some
of the issues that I intend to discuss with the authorities.

"I believe that they are in the process of inviting me to return to
Myanmar, hopefully the first week of March," he said.

Gambari spoke after meeting Indonesian Foreign Minister Hassan Wirayuda
and ahead of talks Friday with President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono.

The envoy, who is UN chief Ban Ki-moon's pointman on promoting national
reconciliation in Myanmar, is on a trip to Asia for regional consultations
about the isolated regime.

Gambari held talks in Beijing earlier this week and is to travel on to
Singapore and then Japan, his spokeswoman Hua Jiang told AFP.

The envoy said after meeting Chinese officials that he expected to return
to Myanmar earlier than April 15, the date authorities there initially
said they would receive him.

Ban has said it was "essential" Gambari be allowed to re-enter the
country, particularly after the junta this month announced the referendum
date.

Gambari has visited Myanmar twice since September when the military junta
violently crushed the biggest pro-democracy protests in nearly 20 years.

The generals says the referendum -- if approved -- would clear the way for
democratic elections in 2010, the first since Aung San Suu Kyi's National
League for Democracy (NLD) party scored a landslide victory in 1990 polls,
which the junta never recognised.

The United States on Wednesday called the proposed constitution a failure
as it banned the widowed Aung San Suu Kyi from running for office on the
basis that she had been married to a foreigner.

Indonesia has pushed for engagement with Myanmar and Foreign Minister
Wirayuda has said that his country could play a significant role by
sharing its experience of transition from a military government to full
democracy.
____________________________________

February 21, Associated Press
UK union calls for Lonely Planet boycott – Raphael G. Satter

British labor and human rights activists called for a boycott of Lonely
Planet books Thursday, urging the travel series to withdraw its guide to
Myanmar.

Britain's largest labor group, the Trades Union Congress, argued the book
lends legitimacy to the country's autocratic regime by promoting tourism
to the isolated southeast Asian country, which is also known as Burma.

"The very existence of a travel guide to Burma encourages people to visit
a country they might not otherwise consider," General-Secretary Brendan
Barber said in a statement. "We want to see the travel industry drop Burma
from their list of destinations and taking the Lonely Planet guidebook off
the shelves would help enormously.

"If enough people sign our petition and stop buying Lonely Planet guides,
we hope we can encourage the BBC to think again," he added.

BBC Worldwide Ltd., which bought a controlling stake in Lonely Planet
Publications last year, said it has no plans to withdraw the guide. It
noted in a statement that Lonely Planet "provides information to help
travelers make informed decisions about whether to visit Burma and, should
they decide to go, make informed choices about what they do there."

The Burma Campaign UK, which lobbies for human rights and democracy in
Myanmar, and Tourism Concern, which fights exploitation in the
international tourism industry, are also backing the boycott call.

Myanmar has been governed by an authoritarian military junta since 1988,
but a series of peaceful mass protests last September drew international
attention.

The world watched in horror as authorities violently cracked down on the
demonstrators, and human rights groups have been struggling to mobilize
concern to put pressure on Myanmar's rulers.

The Lonely Planet's Web site offers potential visitors a list of Myanmar
tourism "pros and cons." Among the cons are opposition leader Aung San Suu
Kyi's appeal to tourists not to travel to Myanmar and the allegation that
forced labor is used to ready tourist-related sites.

Among the pros, Lonely Planet says the tourism industry remains one of the
few sources of income and communication for ordinary Myanmar citizens.

The guide also offers tips for maximizing "the positive effects of a visit
among the general populace, while minimizing support of the government."

The Trades Union Congress is an umbrella group composed of around 60
unions representing more than 6 million people. The group said it had been
lobbying the BBC to pull the Myanmar guides since last year, but was now
calling for a boycott because of the BBC's refusal to remove the books.

____________________________________
OPINION / OTHER

February 21, World Politics Review
Burmese regime's 'roadmap' to democracy likely leads to dead end – William
Boot

Three days after Burma's repressive military regime announced a timetable
for its self-styled roadmap to democracy Feb. 9, the generals were back to
their old, undemocratic ways. They ordered that the deputy leader of the
much-restricted opposition National League for Democracy be held under
house arrest for another year.

Tin Oo has been detained for almost five years, but aged 81 he hardly
seems like a threat to the all-powerful army that runs the desperately
poor, underfed country of 54 million, which was Asia's biggest rice
exporter during British colonial days.

Tin Oo's continued detention seems to confirm the widespread view that the
military's seven-step "roadmap" is just a fig leaf to give the impression
the generals are taking heed of international calls for reform, following
a crackdown on street protests in September last year in which more than
30 people died and thousands were arrested, including many monks.

In a further show of spite, the junta also ordered that Tin Oo would not
to be allowed visitors, or access to regular health checks, relatives told
reporters.

Add to this a declaration last weekend by the Karen National Union that it
will continue its fight against the Burmese army despite the mysterious
assassination in Thailand of its leader, and the route to reconciliation
looks as rocky as ever.

Dissidents Reject Regime 'Reforms'

There has been a loud chorus of rejection, mainly from among the Burmese
themselves, of the junta's new dubious play at reform.

Two leading Burmese dissident groups, which include Buddhist monks who had
a prominent role in last September's silent street marches, have firmly
rejected the junta's timetable for change as a fraud really aimed at
keeping the military in control.

The constitution that Burmese are now being urged to vote for has been
drafted only by regime supporters. Among other dubious provisions of the
document is a guarantee for the military to hold 25 percent of seats in
parliament.

It would also carry a "Protection of the State," clause dating back to the
1970s, which allows detention without trial for up to five years.

In Southeast Asia this is not such an oddity, even for democracies. Both
Malaysia and Singapore have indefinite detention without trial codes,
which they use frequently. The law, ironically, were bequeathed by the
British during the colonial era as part of the long-since ended fight
against communist insurgents in the immediate post-World War II era.

The Burmese constitution, which is supposedly still being finalized by a
regime-appointed committee, emerged last year from a bizarre 14-year-long
convention -- a body that was stacked with regime supporters, off-limits
to the NLD and other opposition groups, and which was easily steered by
the military.

The regime plans a referendum on its constitution in May, leading up to
what it says will be national parliamentary elections in 2010.

The NLD's iconic leader Aung San Suu Kyi, also under house arrest for 12
of the last 18 years, will be barred from any elections because of another
constitutional clause. This one asserts that citizens who have certain
rights in foreign countries cannot stand for office.

Suu Kyi's late husband was British, and she lived in Britain for some time.

A History of Broken Promises

Long years of experience have taught the Burmese that their military
leaders often speak with forked tongues.

After allowing national elections in 1990, the military could not tolerate
the result, in which the NLD swept the board, winning 392 of the 485 seats
contested. The generals arrested the victors.

Those elections emerged from mass pro-democracy protests in 1988, which
led to a bloody crackdown by trigger-happy Burmese troops. Most observers
estimate at least 3,000 people died.

Dates and numbers have special significance in this part of the world --
the 1988 general strike was instigated on Aug. 8 (8/8/88) -- and this year
is the 20th anniversary of that fateful event.

It is not lost on most Burmese that this latest talk of elections by the
regime follows a bloody suppression of street protests, following the
pattern of 1988 and 1990.

Given the military's dogged determination since it first took power in
1962 to retain control over country, Burma watcher and academic Pavin
Chachavalpongpun says it is "unimaginable" the regime will now change its
spots.

"The Burmese military government has failed, deliberately or otherwise, to
reconcile with the opposition.

"At the heart of this failure lies the state's reluctance to surrender its
political power. As a result, Burma has slipped into a political and
economic coma," he wrote in a commentary in Bangkok's The Nation.

Is China Pulling the Strings?

Pavin, a visiting fellow at the Institute of Southeast Asian Studies in
Singapore, says he believes China is behind the Burmese regime's sudden
enthusiasm for elections.

"Acting in its own interests, [China] has recently embarked on a mission
to eliminate negative publicity ahead of the Beijing Olympics in August."

China is widely regarded as having the most influence on the generals of
all Burma's neighbors, most of whom choose to look the other way.

And Beijing has more than the Olympics at stake: Burma has become a vital
source of gas and is also set to become a conduit for transporting Middle
East oil to the Middle Kingdom. The Chinese are building a port on a
remote part of the Burmese coast where oil will be offloaded from tankers
to a planned pipeline across Burma, into China's developing Yunnan
province and beyond.

This is key to a strategy aimed at reducing China's Malacca dilemma --
China's imported oil currently has to pass through the narrow Malacca
Strait via Singapore, making it vulnerable to blockade by the U.S. Navy in
a political crisis.

The idea of the Burmese generals being under Beijing's influence is a view
also shared by Aung Zaw, an exiled dissident who is now editor of the
independent Irrawaddy magazine and Web site. The Burma-focused publication
is based in northern Thailand, where many Burmese exiles live.

"As the regime's political consultant, Beijing has been urging the
generals to implement their roadmap while calling on the international
community to refrain from imposing sanctions," says Aung Zaw.

Within Burma, the regime has cajoled several ethnic rebels groups, with
whom it has secured ceasefire agreements in recent years, to publicly
endorse the referendum and alleged timetable for new elections.

The seven steps of the roadmap to democracy in Burma, according to the
generals, are the convention (now ended); implementation of a "process to
allow the emergence of a genuine and disciplined democratic system" (the
drafting of a new constitution); adoption of a constitution through a
national referendum; holding "free and fair" elections; the convening of
elected bodies; and, finally, the "creation of government organs
instituted by the legislative body."

Outside observers point out that many prominent opposition activists
remain locked up -- as many as 1,800 political dissidents are in custody
-- and there is no sign that they will be freed soon. The much-weakened
NLD has responded vaguely to the referendum plan, saying it is
"incomplete" and the regime ought to create a "fair climate."

The NLD is attempting to negotiate with the former rebel groups to find
common ground. But there is another major national problem: Aside from the
military regime, Burma is not a united country, but a patchwork of tribes
-- the Mon, Shan, Karen, Kachin and Wa among others -- with aspirations
for autonomy or even independence.

It is Asia's Yugoslavia; the junta is Tito.

Following Western pressure for reform after September's violent crackdown
and visits by U.N. special envoy Ibrahim Gambari, the regime appointed a
soft-faced army officer as liaison man with Suu Kyi. That led to several
propagandizing photo opportunities, and little else.

The pessimism within Burma and outside is summed up by Pavin: "A
democratic Burma in 2010? It is still highly inconceivable.

"Pretentiously democratic states in the region, and in Burma's own
neighborhood, exemplify how democracy, no matter how precious, could be an
unwanted asset for certain power holders."

William Boot is a freelance journalist based in Bangkok.
____________________________________

February 21, Manila Times
Ban on Suu Kyi shatters hopes for Myanmar polls

Myanmar’s sudden decision to bar Aung San Suu Kyi from planned elections
shatters any shard of credibility for the ruling junta’s self-proclaimed
“road map” to democracy, analysts said Wednesday.

The regime made a surprise announcement on February 9 that it would hold a
referendum on a new constitution in May, to set the stage for democratic
elections in 2010, the first in 20 years.

But late Tuesday just as the junta said the final draft was complete,
foreign minister Nyan Win told a regional gathering in Singapore that the
constitution would bar detained democracy leader Aung San Suu Kyi from
running in elections.

“They have one goal in mind, that is to prevent Aung San Suu Kyi from
taking office. All the rules have been set to prevent her for various
reasons from running,” said Sunai Phasuk, a researcher for Human Rights
Watch.

And if the junta pushes ahead with its plans without opening a meaningful
dialogue with Aung San Suu Kyi, the “road map” could lead nowhere.

“It doesn’t mean anything in terms of improvement of the political
situation, because the democratic forces will continue to be marginalised
and persecuted,” Sunai said.

If held, the elections would be the first since Nobel peace prize winner
Aung San Suu Kyi led her National League for Democracy (NLD) party to a
landslide victory in 1990.

The regime, however, ignored the result, and has kept the democracy icon
under house arrest for 12 of the last 18 years.

The military then spent 14 years drafting guidelines for a new
constitution, which were released in September. The new basic law would
block Aung San Suu Kyi from running in elections because she was married
to a foreigner.

Her British husband died of cancer nine years ago, and her two sons are
also British nationals.

Since releasing the guidelines, the regime has come under mounting
international pressure over its violent suppression of anti-government
protests led by Buddhist monks last year.

The September demonstrations were the biggest challenge to military rule
in nearly two decades and soldiers responded by opening fire on the
crowds. At least 31 people were killed, according to the United Nations.

After the crackdown, the junta made a series of concessions, allowing UN
envoy Ibrahim Gambari to visit the country twice, and naming a liaison
officer to hold talks with Aung San Suu Kyi.

Those moves had sparked faint hopes that the junta could be persuaded to
make changes to its charter, said Myanmar analyst Win Min, who is based in
neighbouring Thailand.

But the confirmation that she will be barred from the polls “is a signal
that even the NLD could not be allowed to run in the next elections,” he
said.

Gambari said in Beijing on Tuesday that he expected to be allowed to
return soon to Myanmar, but analysts doubted that he would be able to
convince the regime to relent.

“I can’t see the charter being reopened, and Gambari, he’s playing a very
difficult hand. In many ways he’s playing it quite well, but he doesn’t
have a lot of traction in the country,” said John Virgoe, Southeast Asia
project director for International Crisis Group.

“The question is to what extent can (Aung San Suu Kyi) and the democratic
opposition more broadly find a way of engaging with the regime.”

“Are there ways that you can use that ‘road map’ process, deeply flawed as
it is, to advance change in Myanmar,” Virgoe added.

The NLD has yet to stake out a clear stance on the referendum, but has
warned that the regime must respect their victory in the 1990 elections in
order for the country to move toward democracy. Party spokesman Nyan Win
has denounced the government’s election scheme as “unjust,” saying the
military appeared to be making plans for the elections before knowing the
outcome of the referendum.

____________________________________

February 21, Shan Herald Agency for News
Is there a way out for the opposition? – Sai Wansai

It shouldn't be a surprise for the Burmese military juntas exclusion or
barring of Aung San Suu Kyi from participation in the forth-coming
election, which is due to be held in 2010, following the constitutional
referendum targeted in May of this year.

"The Fundamental Principles and Detailed Basic Principles", adopted by the
National Convention, under chapter 3, The Head of State, sub-heading
Qualifications of the President and Vice-Presidents states, The President
of the Union himself, parents, spouse, children and their spouses shall
not owe allegiance to a foreign power, shall not be subject of a foreign
power or citizen of a foreign country. They shall not be persons entitled
to the rights and privileges of a subject or citizen of a foreign country.
It further stresses in the same section, that The President of the Union
shall be well acquainted with affairs of State such as political,
administrative, economic and military affairs.

In other words, it is designed to exclude Aung San Suu Kyi for she wont be
able to meet the qualifications stated in detailed basic principles by the
junta.

It is not a secret that the junta is bent on monopolising the state power
by all means and barring Aung San Suu Kyi from the electoral process
becomes a necessity. And as an extension, obstructing her National League
for Democracy (NLD), Shan Nationalities League for Democracy (SNLD) and
other vocal political parties from participation in the election are
definitely in the juntas agenda. For they are considered undesirable, due
to the commitment to genuine federalism and are against the military
dominated, dictatorial rule. The NLD, together with SNLD and other ethnic
political parties, garnered 98 percent of the vote and won a landslide
nation-wide election in 1990. The junta-back National Unity Party (NUP)
received only 2 percent vote.


>From the junta perspective, this suppose to be an ideal solution to get

rid of all political opposition for good and install or hand over
political decision-making power to Union Solidarity and Development
Association (USDA), which is its brainchild and functions as
military-backed thugs to harass the opposition. Also there are indications
to transform it to a full fledged political organisation to stand for
election in 2010. This scenario would soon unfold, under the rubric of its
so-called disciplined and flourishing democracy, which actually could only
be termed as a military dominated rule.

This boils down to the point of what could the democratic opposition do to
counter this juntas go-it-alone stance, which predictably would be
endorsed by countries like China, India and most ASEAN states, perhaps
with the exception of Indonesia and the Philippines, which are quite vocal
against the juntas stalling tactics,  undemocratic stance and
heavy-handedness against the population and opposition.

Unfortunately, this junta's orchestral show is the only game in town,
where the United Nations could get involve and also exert some influence,
if there is ever a chance to change the hard-line attitude of the Burmese
junta. The same is also true to the democratic opposition camp and the
ethnic political and resistance groups. It goes without saying that it
takes two to tango, but the junta is determined as ever to carry it out
alone. Its logic is that the main opposition groups were invited to
participate in the National Convention (NC), but had thrown away their
chances and walked out of the ongoing process. Thus, it is not the juntas
fault to have to continue it with available individuals and groups, which
readily agree to go along with the junta. Little does it mention or admit
to the public that almost all participants of the NC are hand-picked and
actually are not allowed to deviate from juntas prescribed road map. With
the few exception counter proposals from cease-fire group quarters and
some vocal non-Burman ethnic groups, which however were rejected, the
juntas draft constitution was programmed to be adopted.

The stage is now set for constitutional referendum in May, which is just
three months away and peculiar enough, the public has still not seen the
draft.  Some Burma watchers reasoned that the junta might not be confident
enough to publicise it immediately, for fear of international backlash and
public scrutiny. The juntas blue print is known to be fatally flawed, when
one goes through its publicised basic principles or guidelines for
constitutional drafting.

Against this backdrop, the opposition in general have only two choices:
One is to reject the constitutional referendum with no vote or totally
boycott the process; and the other would be  to demand, preferably through
the UN General Secretary's good office and international mediators, for a
more favourable political climate. This would include an unconditional
release of all political prisoners, nation-wide cease-fire, and lifting of
all restrictions imposed on existing political parties. If such an
atmosphere could be negotiated, the reviewing of juntas constitutional
draft leading to reasonable adjustment or amendment, in all-inclusive and
open manners, could become a possibility, which will encompass the peoples
aspiration in a wider sense. The draft will then be credible enough, at
least, as an acceptable, transitional one and would be ready for
referendum.

On Wednesday, the United States national security spokesman Gordon
Johndroe urged the ruling junta to "start from scratch." He said, "That is
- meaning: the barring of Aung San Suu Kyi from entering the election - 
hardly the definition of free and fair elections. The junta needs to start
from scratch with a real draft constitution that actually passes the laugh
test,"

Whether the junta would hold on to its hard-line position against all
odds, coupled with such critical view and refuse to accommodate the call
for democratic change or make sensible concession according to wish and
aspiration of the people is anybodys guess.

The author is the General Secretary of the Shan Democratic Union (SDU)