BurmaNet News, May 8, 2008

[Editor]

May 8, 2008 Issue # 3461

INSIDE BURMA
Irrawaddy: Eighty thousand people dead’; cholera cases reported
AP: Suu Kyi's house roof blown off
NYT: Myanmar’s biggest city still paralyzed after 5 days
Irrawaddy: Forty percent of children in cyclone may be dead, missing
Irrawaddy: Thousands dead, Than Shwe in hiding
The Sun: Tyrant daughter's wedding cost £ 25m ..he gives £ 2.5m to save
victims
BBC News: Burmese blog the cyclone

BUSINESS / TRADE
WSJ: Myanmar's poor agricultural policies could hamper longer-term recovery

REGIONAL
AFP: China urges Myanmar to work with global community after cyclone

INTERNATIONAL
DVB: Sasana Moli promises assistance to disaster victims
Irrawaddy: UN frustrated over visa, custom delays
AP: U.S. considers air drops for Burma cyclone victims
AFP: Rice says Myanmar crisis 'not a matter of politics'
AP: France, Britain urge Myanmar to lift restrictions on cyclone aid

OPINION / OTHER
Irrawaddy: Humanitarian intervention needed [Editorial]
Irrawaddy: How the regime hides its billions - Sean Turnell
The Nation (Thailand): Mixed signals from Burma over disaster

STATEMENT
NHEC: Appeal to the international community

____________________________________
INSIDE BURMA

May 8, Irrawaddy
Eighty thousand people dead’; cholera cases reported - Aung Thet Wine /
Bogalay

(An Irrawaddy correspondent has returned from the delta area after
interviewing military officers, government officials, medical personnel
and survivors of Cyclone Nargis.)

An army major with the Irrawaddy Division military headquarters who asked
not to be identified said on Wednesday more than 600 villages are
submerged in the Irrawaddy delta along Cyclone Nargis’ deadly path.

The worst-hit areas are Bogalay, Laputta, Mawlamyaing Gyun and Pyapon
townships where, he said, more than 80,000 people have died and more than
700,000 people are homeless.

Local medical personnel said some survivors from Kyein Kyi Chaung village
in Bogalay have died of cholera. Cholera has also occurred among some
survivors from Laputta. The government has been transferring Laputta
refugees to Myang Mya Township daily, according to an army officer.

“The cholera outbreak has begun,” said one medical worker. “People have
nothing to drink so they drink water from the creeks and rivers. So that
is how the outbreak began.

“These waterways are dirty because they are littered with bodies and
animals. The survivors know the water is dirty, but they have no other
choice and have had to drink the dirty water. That’s how they contracted
cholera.

“This is the time for us to stock up on cholera medicine for the
possibility of an outbreak in the near future. However, we do not have
enough medicine.”

Bogalay was the hardest-hit township with the highest death toll, believed
to be around 50,000 people.  The military officer said the second largest
death toll was in Laputta, with Pyapon third in the number of fatalities.

“Laputta had nearly 20,000 deaths,” he said.

An army officer with Light Infantry 66 who has been involved in relief
efforts said:
“A total of 142 villages went under water in Bogalay Township. The
majority of the people in these villages have died. Only a few survived.
For instance, Khaing Shwe Wa village in Kyun Thaya Dai Nel (village tract)
had about 400 people before the cyclone; now they have only four people
left. So you can say that the whole village was wiped out.”

All 50 villages in Kyun Thaya Dai Nel located between Meinmahla Kyun and
Kadonkana islands southwest of Boglay are submerged. (The villages include
Mi Laung Gwin, Kapanan, Yei Kyaw Gyi, Chaung Phye, Gway Chaung, Khaing
Shwe Wa, Danyinphyu, inner and outer parts of Khaung Gyi Island,
Buyakyaung, Hmon Tine Gyi, Hmon Tine Lay, Tayaw Chaung, Pulonetaing,
Ashe-mae, Kantmalar, Chachee Island village, Thakinma Gyi, Thitpoke
village, Letwel Gyi, Kyat Pyay and Thamadi).

Thirty-three villages located in the Kyein Chaung Gyi village tract about
40 miles (64 kilometers) west of Bogalay were wiped out, including Shwe
Htoo, Lamu Oat Gyi, Lamu Oat Lay, Ma Kyin Myaing, Hlay Lone Kwe,
Arr-makhan, Japan Island and Lay Gwa.

The officer from Light Infantry 66 said thousands of people were rescued
in recent days from villages where the water level has gone down.

Local residents said many people have seen no relief supplies during the
past six days following the disaster. People do not know where to go to
seek help, and they are in desperate need of safe drinking water, food and
medicine.

A government officer with the Maternal and Child Care Association serving
Laputta and Pyapon said there is widespread fear of diseases such as
malaria, diarrhea and cholera because of dead bodies that litter the area
and unsanitary living conditions.

A resident in the Kadon village tract who has been involved in the relief
effort, said: “We are using May Kha, a double-deck boat; Thuria, a
long-tale boat; and local fishing boats known as jote (30-35 feet long) in
our efforts to find survivors.”

Another soldier with Light Infantry 66 said, “There is not even a trace of
a village left after the water has receded; they are just open, empty
places now. There are thousands of decaying corpses around islands,
villages and along the waterfronts. There is no one to cremate the
bodies.”

A rescue worker said: “There’s a pile of dead bodies amounting to hundreds
in and around Mein Ma Hla Island. The waterfront along this area is
littered with bodies, carcasses of live stock, buffaloes, cupboards,
furniture and other household materials. There are so many corpses that it
is impossible to bury them.

“Even at the Irrawaddy jetty in Bogalay, the locals have had to pick up 30
to 40 dead bodies floating in the water daily. We went on a rescue mission
to a place about 60 miles from Bogalay and saw countless bodies floating
in the water.”

A soldier from Light Infantry 66 said the government has opened shelters
for refugees at Bogalay Education College, state high schools Nos1 and 2
and state middle school Nos 1 and 2.

“Some 50 monasteries in the areas have opened shelters for the victims of
the cyclone,” he said. “There are some 70,000 refugees in these shelters.
These shelters can no longer cope with the growing number of people. The
government has also set up shelters in Ma-u-ban Township. They are using
double-deck boats in the rescue efforts and transferring victims, close to
1,000 a day, to these shelters.”

Local medical service personnel say many people have serious injuries;
they are turning away people with minor injuries because they can not cope
with the numbers.

Part of Bogalay Hospital was destroyed in the cyclone, including the
delivery room, operating theater, OPD and several wards.

The cyclone destroyed 90 percent of Bogalay, said officials. There are
only two working telephones reserved for emergency purposes.

An official from Boglay Township Maternal and Child Care Association said,
“Soldiers from Division 66 and an engineering regiment from Taunggo have
arrived for rescue efforts. But we have not been able to distribute enough
food and water to the victims.

“The longer we have to wait for aid the more people will die. I have so
far seen only a few UN personnel and groups working under the UN.”

Recently, officials said the government started distributing three
egg-sized potatoes and one condensed milk tin of rice per survivor in
villages around Bogalay and 8 tins of rice per household to families in
Bogalay.

A soldier said, “To provide supplies sufficient for the victims, we will
need between 1,200 and 1,500 rice sacks daily for survivors in and around
Bogalay. Now we are distributing what little supply we have.”

Local officials said they do not have enough rice to feed some 200,000
people in villages destroyed or submerged in Laputta Township; it is
providing rice soup instead.

According to Phyapon residents, 46 villages have totaled disappeared and
more than 10,000 people have died in their area.

A journalist in Rangoon said many people arriving in the former capital
show signs of psychological problems.

“I’d like to urge the government as well as the international community to
speed up the rescue and relief work,” he said. “This sort of situation
does not require an order from the military. There’s no need to wait for
an order from the military. Just one day delay can cause the loss of
hundreds of lives.

“It’s already been a week since the cyclone and little has been done
effectively. If there is going to be more delay, many more lives will be
lost unnecessarily. I want everyone to hurry.”

____________________________________

May 8, Associated Press
Suu Kyi's house roof blown off - Sutin Wannabovorn

The roof of Burmese opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi's house was blown
off in the cyclone over the weekend, and she is living without
electricity, a neighbor said on Thursday.

It was not clear if Suu Kyi was injured, and whether she has enough food
and water.

The neighbor said the electricity connection to Suu Kyi's dilapidated
lakeside bungalow was snapped in Saturday's cyclone.

He said he sees candles being lit at night in the house.

"She has no generator in her house. I felt pity for her. It seems no one
cares for her," said the neighbor, contacted by telephone from Bangkok. He
spoke on condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the subject.

Suu Kyi has lived under house arrest for about 12 of the last 18 years for
leading an internationally hailed movement for democracy in the country
that has been ruled by the military with an iron fist since 1962.

The neighbor said a tree in the compound of her house was uprooted while
part of the roof was ripped off.

Soldiers posted around the house have not yet cleared the trees that were
toppled in the area during the cyclone.

"This area is of less priority, so they seemed to have ignored us for the
time being," he said.

____________________________________

May 8, New York Times
Myanmar’s biggest city still paralyzed after 5 days

YANGON, Myanmar — Five days after the powerful cyclone struck, this city,
Myanmar’s commercial capital and until Saturday a verdant oasis of wide
avenues, is far from back to normal.

Thousands of trees lie where they fell, jetties on the Yangon River are
collapsed into the water and only a few traffic lights are working across
the city of 5 million people.

Most of Yangon remains without electricity and even the local branch of
the Ministry of Energy has no power.

The death toll in Yangon has been small compared with the devastation in
the delta of the Irrawaddy River. The government counts fewer than 400
people killed here compared with the more than 22,000, and by some
unofficial estimates possibly tens of thousands more, dead over all in
Myanmar since the huge cyclone hit on Saturday.

But the inability of the government to clear debris and restore basic
utilities like water and power in what is the country’s wealthiest city
are a measure of how difficult Myanmar’s overall disaster recovery could
be.

In Yangon, the top American diplomat’s Cadillac is trapped in the garage
by giant fallen trees and lines for rationed gasoline snake through the
city for blocks. Generators hum everywhere. Buildings have lost roofs,
facades. The sign for the Hotel Yangon is missing its “Y” and “n.”

Essential equipment — chainsaws, machines capable of lifting heavy debris
and helicopters, among many other necessary items — are in short supply or
absent altogether. The government has 12 helicopters, but only five of
them are operational and can transport supplies to far-flung locations,
diplomats here say. In neighborhoods here where soldiers are clearing
trees, they are often using small machetes and axes to hack away at thick
branches. Others, where workers have chainsaws, look and smell like
lumberyards.

Basic construction materials are unavailable.

“There are no nails to be found in Yangon,” said Shari Villarosa, the
chargé d’affaires at the United States Embassy here, who said the embassy
imported chainsaws from neighboring Thailand and Bangladesh. “The basics
are not here.”

The damage to buildings, many already decrepit, is extensive. The city’s
largest hospital, a majestic red-brick building built by the British, lost
large portions of its roof during the storm. Crumbling colonial mansions
are newly ravaged by wind and rain. Reams of fabric at the neighboring
Bogyok Aung San market were soaked by the cyclone and were rolled out onto
balconies to dry.

At the once elegant compound housing the French Embassy, Ambassador Jean
Pierre Lafosse wanders the grounds looking lost.

The embassy’s front wall was destroyed by a fallen tree, as were other
buildings and walls throughout the compound.

“All these trees were 40 and 50 years old,” said Mr. Lafosse, whose crisp
white shirt and tie appear to be the only neat and orderly part of the
embassy in the wake of the cyclone. “There is only one tree left. But that
is not a unique situation in Rangoon at all.” Rangoon is the former name
of Yangon.

In the wealthy neighborhoods where the generals and diplomats live, groups
of soldiers are clearing away debris and workers are perched on rooftops
replacing tiles. But in the poorer neighborhoods, “there are no soldiers
at all,” said one resident.

Drivers spend three or four hours at gasoline stations to buy two gallons
of fuel, the daily allowance by the government.

The fuel costs just $2.50 a gallon but on the black market, where many
drivers are forced to buy their fuel, the price is four times that.
Soldiers sitting under tarps along the side of the road sell the illegal
fuel.

Ms. Villarosa said the challenge of restoring order was a huge one for the
Myanmar authorities.

“It’s my hope that they’re going to realize that they can’t do it by
themselves,” Ms. Villarosa said.

“There’s plenty of things we can criticize the military for,” she said in
an interview at the embassy compound. “But this would be a mind-boggling
task for anyone.”

Local residents, especially the poor, are struggling to keep up with
soaring food costs. There have been scattered reports of looting and if
the city remains without power for much longer, diplomats fear that
violence could break out.

“No power!” said Kyaw, a taxi driver, as he passed the Ministry of Energy
building, which serves only as a branch office after the military
government moved the capital to a faraway city in the jungle, Naypyidaw.

____________________________________

May 8, Irrawaddy
Forty percent of children in cyclone may be dead, missing - Violet Cho

Nearly half of the number of dead and missing in Burma following cyclone
Nargis are likely to be children, according to Save the Children officials
in Burma.

Andrew Kirkwood, the Save the Children country director, said the death
toll and missing may include about 40 percent children because of their
greater vulnerability during the storm and subsequent flooding.

The cyclone also destroyed “more than three thousand primary schools,” he
said, “so more than 500,000 children will not be able to continue their
education for some time to come.”

Save the Children along with MSF-Holland and CARE have begun distributing
food and shelter items to people in affected areas around Rangoon.

They said they will try to go by boat to Laputta Township on Thursday and
Hainggyi in the far west where thousands of people are still isolated and
cut off from aid.

“It is a race against time, and now our priority has to be those who are
left. We urgently need help to be able to reach the surviving children and
families and deliver what we know they need,” said Kirkwood.

Kirkwood said he expects the death toll will rise significantly if food,
shelter and medicine don’t reach survivors soon.

The military regime continued to place obstacles to international
humanitarian aid distribution within the country by delaying visa
approvals to UN and other international teams outside the country.

The United Nations, the US, Australia and many other nations have made
urgent requests for visas for their aid personnel. Only a few aid groups
have successfully entered the country as of Thursday.

Australia’s Prime Minister Kevin Rudd appealed on Wednesday, saying,
"Forget politics, forget the military dictatorship, let's just get aid and
assistance through to people who are suffering and dying as we speak."

The UN estimates hundreds of thousands have been left homeless and
millions are without food and water.

Kirkwood said, “Bodies are floating in rivers and people are absolutely
desperate for water and food. In fact, security in the areas is becoming a
problem as people are so desperate that they are starting to attack people
who have even small amounts of food.”

____________________________________

May 8, Irrawaddy
Thousands dead, Than Shwe in hiding - Wai Moe

As Burma deals with the pain of one of the greatest humanitarian disasters
in recent history, one face is conspicuous by its absence— that of
commander in chief of the Burmese armed forces and chairman of the ruling
SPDC, Snr-Gen Than Shwe.

Than Shwe and his close aides, generals Maung Aye and Thura Shwe Mann,
have all but disappeared since Cyclone Nargis hit Burma.

People in Burma who read and watch the state-run media told The Irrawaddy
that Burmese Prime Minister Gen Thein Sein and other ministers are
constantly featured in news reports, meeting with survivors and
distributing food and water.

However, there is no sign of Than Shwe and his top two generals. As head
of state, Than Shwe has not even responded to world leaders who sent
messages of condolences to the people of Burma.

Than Shwe’s the last appearance in the Burmese media was Friday, May 2,
the day the cyclone struck. Instead of issuing a cyclone warning, the
state radio and television reported a backdated news item that Than Shwe
had personally picked up Prime Minister Gen Thein Sein from the airport in
Naypyidaw.

The junta’s propaganda machine has since banned footage in the national
media of monks helping survivors and providing assistance.

“I was so annoyed when I  saw a TV report showing a donation box with the
name of Lt-Gen Myint Swe—a member of the ruling junta—plastered on it,”
said Ko Htoo, a student in Rangoon. “This is no time for propaganda. We
need accurate news on the crisis.”

____________________________________

May 8, The Sun (England)
Tyrant daughter's wedding cost £ 25m ..he gives £ 2.5m to save cyclone
victims - Nick Parker

BURMA'S tyrant leader is spending just £ 2.5million to help save his
people from cyclone hell - after lavishing TEN times that on his
daughter's wedding.

General Than Shwe laid on a sickening spread for dumpy bride Thandar while
his nation starved.

And last night his regime was facing worldwide fury over an internet video
of the wedding after 120mph Cyclone Nargis swamped Burma - killing up to
100,000 people.

Footage emerged as the country's military junta was accused of halting
vital aid shipments heading for the region, while releasing only £
2.5million aid.

Luxury

Guests are heard cheering as Thandar receives diamonds for her hair. She
and her Army major groom then celebrate with champagne before Shwe's
cronies hand her the keys to a fleet of cars and luxury homes valued at £
25million at the 2006 bash.

Meanwhile a million people are homeless after Saturday's tropical blast
and 12ft tidal surge.

State media reported yesterday that 22,464 were confirmed dead and 41,054
missing, with 40 per cent said to be children.

But the grim toll was expected to easily top 100,000 as hours of inaction
passed.

Emergency teams reported that 12,000 square miles remained underwater.
British charity Save the Children has launched a global emergency appeal
for £ 5million to help surviving families. But the paltry aid contribution
released by Shwe so far was revealed in a UN document.

Mark Farmaner, Director of the Burma Campaign UK, said last night: "The
obscene show of wealth at the wedding typifies the shameless greed of this
regime. Not only are they blocking international aid, they're not
mobilising their own resources.

"Five days in, most people have still not received any aid."

TO donate to the Burma appeal call 0870 6060900, send a cheque payable to
"DEC Myanmar Cyclone" to: DEC Myanmar (Burma) Cyclone Appeal, PO BOX 232,
Melksham, SN12 6WF, or see www.dec.org.uk/donate_now

See video from inside Burma at thesun.co.uk/news

____________________________________

May 8, BBC News
Burmese blog the cyclone

After the devastation of Cyclone Nargis, communication with people inside
Burma has been sporadic and extremely difficult.

But Burmese blogs and news sites have been quick to react by posting vivid
eyewitness accounts of the disaster and mobilising fundraising efforts.

Communications destroyed

First-hand accounts of the devastation wreaked by Cyclone Nargis and its
aftermath have been trickling out of Burma.

Cyclone Nargis succeeded where the junta failed last autumn in virtually
obliterating phone and internet access out of Burma. People's stories have
been slow to emerge because of such practical difficulties - and this is
only compounded by a pervasive fear of the ever-watchful authorities.

Nevertheless the news site, based in India and run by Burmese exiles, has
managed to make the most of long-standing personal networks to gather some
compelling accounts of loss and survival.

One woman sheltering in a church told Mizzima that little was left for
her: "My youngest child is only 10 months old and my husband is paralysed.
We can do nothing now and face a bleak future."

Mizzima editor Mung Pi told the BBC News website that people were very
cautious about talking of their experiences. Most eyewitness accounts need
to remain anonymous.
"We have been randomly calling people. We get lucky one out of 10 times.
People we know, friends in Rangoon, contact us when they can send an email
but they are wary of spending too much time online."
Diaspora bloggers have written of their repeated attempts to reach family
in Burma. Myat Thu
http://myatthura.blogspot.com/2008/05/cyclone-nargis.html described his
attempts to contact home.

"Sunday morning, still no phone contact. Finally, I tried to call my
friend who has a mobile phone. He said the situation was really bad. He
promised to go and see my family."
Myat Thura finally heard that his family was safe but "water was pouring
into the house and my family had to move things into the rooms where it
was dry."

He told the BBC News website that the sites he regularly reads by active
Burmese bloggers haven't had any updates since the cyclone. Rangoon-based
blogger http://madyjune.wordpress.com/ had not - at the time of writing -
managed to post updates.

Eyewitness: coping with cyclone aftermath

Blogs and news sites have been chronicling how the residents of Rangoon
are struggling to cope days after the storm hit.

Stories of monks and local residents pulling together and co-ordinating
local clean-ups and sharing water could be found on the Democratic Voice
of Burma other sites such as Irrawaddy.

Rangoon by night presents new challenges for people in the city according
to one account -
http://english.mizzimaburmese.com/nargis-impact/18-nargis-impact/447-today-rangoon-eyewitness-account

"Many areas in Rangoon are pitch dark at nights, including areas around
Sule Pagoda, which is unusually not lit. Without a torch it is dangerous
to walk on the streets, as jagged edges of uprooted trees protrude into
sidewalks," says one resident.

The blog
http://ratchasima.net/2008/05/06/eyewitness-accounts-of-cyclone-and-after/
says people have been turned away from hospitals because of the lack of
electricity and water.

The Burmese language  http://www.yoma3.org/news/ got news of the
devastation at the Laputta Township
http://www.yoma3.org/news/2008/may/laputta-reality-situation-and-nothing-help.html
in south-western Burma which was hardest hit by the cyclone.

Aye Kyu who was elected MP for Laputta in the 1990 elections highlighted
the security threats emerging after days without aid: "Survivors come to
the town brandishing their swords. They are very angry. People are worried
about security," he said.

One Burmese man in Rangoon who runs a small welfare organisation told the
BBC via an online chat that very little help was forthcoming from the
authorities, which is why everybody was working for themselves.

He is hoping to gather a group of people and go southwest to the
worst-affected parts of the country to offer aid and assistance.

"Only city people were doing work, cleaning roads, cutting down trees.
However they [the authorities] have not done not much yet," he said.
When the internet connection improves he will update his about civil
society initiatives in Rangoon with his plans.

Burmese diaspora - Anger at the junta

The anger felt towards the junta and its reluctance to accept offers of
aid is palpable in a number of blogs.

The blog http://www.mayburma.com/2008_05_01_archive.html is very clear
about where culpability lies.

"While the military government is still going ahead to legitimate and
secure their power and their individual family wealth, the people ... are
now facing death, loss of homes and starvation."

London-based Burmese blogger Ko Htike http://ko-htike.blogspot.com/ is one
of a number of cyber-dissidents outside the country using his Burmese
language blog to spread a sense of urgency about the disaster.

"The security threat could worsen, there could be infectious diseases, the
government delay of two days in accepting the UN offer meant NGO workers
couldn't apply for visas," he says.

The author of another Burmese language http://kopaw07.blogspot.com/ asks:
"Where are the army leaders who think of themselves as saviours of Burma?
There is no help for people as they have to help themselves. We have to
get rid of them."

Fundraising for Burma

Nyi Lunn Seck’s http://nyilynnseck.blogspot.com/ updated his Burmese
language blog from the hard hit Mingalartaungnyunt township five days
after the cyclone hit.

He urges all readers pay attention to the crisis: "It was very
frightening. Many villages were entirely wiped out, " he says. "Why don't
you help us?

Ko Htike has urged everybody reading his blog to help fundraise for the
victims of the cyclone. From the UK he has already raised over £1,000.

Many other overseas Burmese groups have been posting cyclone appeals such
as the American University Student Campaign for Burma
http://auburma.blogspot.com/ and this posted by the Burmese community in
Singapore.

The Niknayman blog http://niknayman.blogspot.com/ also posts a
comprehensive list of donation sites.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/go/pr/fr/-/2/hi/asia-pacific/7387313.stm

____________________________________
BUSINESS / TRADE

May 8, Wall Street Journal Online
Myanmar's poor agricultural policies could hamper longer-term recovery -
James Hookway

Myanmar's badly conceived agricultural policies are compounding the
country's already dire food situation.

In recent years, Myanmar's reclusive military rulers have plowed large
tracts of rice- and vegetable-growing land to plant jatropha -- an
inedible plant used for making biodiesel.  Soldiers in the country's
400,000-strong army are routinely instructed to be self-sufficient and do
so by simply seizing food from farmers.

And villagers in the highland regions are often given rice strains
requiring expensive fertilizers which they can't afford, according to
academic researchers and nongovernment organizations.

Now, the folly of such policies is becoming apparent in the wake of the
cyclone that devastated the country last weekend.

Much of the Irrawaddy River delta, the country's rice bowl, is still under
water and up to a million people are waiting for emergency aid to arrive
from the rest of the world. At least 22,000 people have died in the storm
and another 41,000 are missing, according to the military government. And
U.S. officials contend the death toll may reach 100,000 people.

United Nations World Food Program official say the storm wiped out much of
Myanmar's mid-year rice harvest and add that grain stockpiles are
dwindling because of the military's jatropha drive. That makes it likely
Myanmar's plans to export rice to other needy nations such as Bangladesh
this year will be scrapped.

Indeed, He Changchui, Asia-Pacific chief of the UN's Food and Agriculture
Organization said Thursday that the widespread flooding will exacerbate an
already precarious domestic food supply situation. "Time is running out to
prepare for the main rice-planting season," he said.

The result: Myanmar, a major exporter before the military came to power in
a 1962 coup, will probably have to start importing rice at a time when
global prices for the grain have soared.

The military regime's opaque decision-making and often bizarre policies
could jeopardize prospects for Myanmar's longer-term recovery, analysts
and diplomats suggest. In particular, the regime's mismanagement of
agriculture has badly eroded the country's food-security cushion --
despite the government claims before the cyclone struck that Myanmar would
produce enough rice this year to double its exports.

"We can't blame Burma for being hit by a cyclone, but we can point to
their policies for making a longer-term recovery much harder," said a
senior western diplomat in Yangon.

For example, the military regime used to require that all rice farmers
give a portion of their harvest to the army. That policy was formally
abolished in 2003, but it survives in practice thanks to a government
directive that army battalions should strive to be self-sufficient --
effectively giving soldiers a license to loot, critics say. Myanmar has
also been bringing in strains of hybrid rice from China, but has failed to
provide the additional fertilizer those strains need to flourish.

The most notorious example of errant policy-making, however, reflects
junta leader Senior-General Than Shwe's fascination with biodiesel to
break the country's dependence on expensive imported oil.

In December 2005, the battle-hardened, 75-year-old commander kicked off a
nationwide campaign to grow jatropha, a squat, hardy bush which yields
golf-ball-sized fruit containing a sticky, yellow liquid that can be made
into fuel. His drive was similar to initiatives in other parts of the
world, including the U.S., which encouraged farmers to grow corn, palm oil
or other crops for biofuel and which are now facing intense criticism for
driving up the price of food.

India, China and other countries grow jatropha on scrubby land where food
crops can't survive. But in Myanmar, some of the country's most fertile
land has been converted to cultivating the shrub, including several
plantations of as much as 2,500 acres each, researchers say.

"This was the whitest of the junta's white elephants," said Monique
Skidmore, a professor at the Australian National University and an author
of two books on Myanmar. "People were being forced to grow it everywhere
-- in fields, in schools, along the sides of the road. It goes to show how
(the generals) have no concept of how to properly run the country,
especially in the aftermath of this cyclone."

It's not clear how much of Myanmar's arable land has been converted to
jatropha cultivation.  Organizations such as the United Nations Food and
Agriculture Organization warned the government about the risks of farming
jatropha on land which could be used to grow food. But Gen. Than Shwe's
goal was to set aside an area the size of Belgium to grow jatropha -- a
huge commitment for Myanmar, which is roughly the size of France.

In 2006, the chief research officer at state-run Myanmar Oil and Gas
Enterprise said Myanmar hoped to totally replace the country's oil imports
of 40,000 barrels a day with home-brewed jatropha-derived biofuel. Other
government officials declared Myanmar would soon start exporting jatropha
oil.

Meanwhile, ordinary citizens were press-ganged into working in the
jatropha program, according to Myanmar refugees and political activists. 
State-run television showed documentaries on how to grow the plant, while
headlines in state newspapers such as The New Light of Myanmar urged
people to plant more jatropha shrubs.

An extensive report released earlier this month by the Ethnic Community
Development Forum, an alliance of seven non-government community
development organizations mostly based in neighboring Thailand, catalogs
instances where the military seized private farm-land to grow jatropha or
ordered farmers to switch from cultivating rice, wheat or other crops to
growing jatropha instead.

In 2006, each of Myanmar's 14 administrative zones was instructed to plant
500,000 acres of jatropha -- without regard to each region's size or its
suitability for such cropping. In some places, such as the region that
includes the country's largest city, Yangon, that means around 20% of the
land is supposed to be planted with jatropha, according to the forum's
report.

Despite the military's extensive efforts, the jatropha campaign apparently
has largely flopped in reaching its goal of making Myanmar self-sufficient
in fuel.

In many places, the farmers didn't understand what it was they were
supposed to be farming, and the crops failed. Other people, the forum's
report said, "have been fined, beaten, and arrested for not
participating."

What's more, jatropha turned out to be harder to refine into biofuel than
Gen. Than Shwe and the junta had expected. Faced with a shortfall of fuel,
Myanmar began stepping up its conventional oil imports last year just as
global crude prices began to spike.

That lead to rising food and transport costs and, ultimately, contributed
to a pro-democracy revolt led by Buddhist monks, which the military
brutally crushed last September, killing at least 31 people.

Agricultural and aid experts worry that Myanmar's experiment in fuel
self-sufficiency has already compromised its ability to feed itself.

"I mean, they were tearing up rice paddies to plant jatropha," said David
Mathieson, a Thailand based coordinator with Human Rights Watch, who has
interviewed dozens of refugees who have crossed over the border in the
months before the cyclone to escape the mismanagement of Myanmar's
agricultural economy. "The farmers don't know what they are supposed to be
doing and this is going to cause a lot of trouble later on."

Write to James Hookway at james.hookway at awsj.com

____________________________________
REGIONAL

May 8, Agence France Presse
China urges Myanmar to work with global community after cyclone - Marianne
Barriaux

China Thursday urged Myanmar to cooperate with the international community
as the isolated Southeast Asian country signalled reluctance to let in
foreign aid after a devastating cyclone.

"Given the magnitude of the disaster in Myanmar, the international
community has expressed concern and willingness to provide assistance,"
foreign ministry spokesman Qin Gang told reporters.

"This is natural and we hope Myanmar will cooperate with the international
community and have consultations with the international community."

Official state media in Myanmar have put the number of dead and missing at
more than 60,000, with pressure mounting on the regime to open its borders
to international aid.

The ruling junta agreed to accept US emergency aid after last weekend's
cyclone, allowing at least one military plane to deliver supplies to
Yangon.

However, the US ambassador in Myanmar said later Thursday that a planned
aid flight had not gone ahead, adding that it was not clear if it was
because of a mix-up or because the junta had withdrawn permission.

The secretive regime's reluctance to allow foreign experts and other
dedicated relief flights into the country has caused frustration and
compounded the misery for a million people homeless and short of food and
water.

China has long been perceived as one of Burma's strongest allies, and has
been vital in keeping the regime afloat through its trade ties and arms
sales and by protecting it against UN sanctions for alleged human rights
abuses.

This has led to hope that China might be able to influence the reclusive
country over letting more foreign aid in -- a move that experts doubt will
happen.

"The best that China has is the ability to get on the phone and call up
key people in the Myanmar regime, and get them on the phone quickly," Bob
Broadfoot of the Hong Kong-based Political and Economic Risk Consultancy,
said.

But he said China's influence was still limited, despite being a strong ally.

"Relative to the US, China has got a lot of influence. But relative to its
ability to put Burma on a different path, it does not have that
influence."

Another expert said China's appeal to Myanmar to cooperate with the
international community in this time of crisis was not meant to change the
ruling junta's general policy.

"It is I think more focused on the immediate handling of the disaster
consequence. So I don't think we should take it as a signal for changing
Chinese attitudes to Myanmar," said Colonel R. Hariharan, an analyst with
the Chennai Centre for Chinese Studies in India.

"China has an influence. But the problem is China is doing this because of
the Olympic Games and it knows the disaster is too big."

The Chinese government decided to send another 30 million yuan (4.3
million dollars) in emergency aid to the disaster-hit country, on top of
the one-million-dollar package it announced on Tuesday, said Qin.

"We are ready to do our best to provide assistance. As for the specific
forms of assistance, there could be rescue teams, medical teams," Qin
added.

The China Red Cross has also decided to send 30,000 dollars, and CNOOC,
the state-run oil company, is to donate 100,000 dollars.

Meanwhile, the Chinese ambassador to Myanmar, Guan Mu, on Thursday visited
some parts of cyclone-hit Yangon, the country's former capital, where
overseas Chinese businesses, students and personnel were located, state
press said.

Broadfoot said China's response to the disaster, and its cooperation with
the international community, was positive.

"It is trying to cooperate with other countries, as opposed to being an
independent source of aid to Myanmar," he said.

But Hariharan said China's intentions were more selfish than generous.

"China also knows the disaster is too big and the Myanmar government by
itself cannot handle it. So it has to accept the international
cooperation," he said.

____________________________________
INTERNATIONAL

May 8, Democratic Voice of Burma
Sasana Moli promises assistance to disaster victims

The London branch of the International Burmese Monks’ Assocication, or
Sasana Moli, promised yesterday to provide assistance to disaster victims
in cyclone-ravaged regions of Burma.

A spokesperson for Sasana Moli in London said the group was working with
other Burmese groups to coordinate their efforts.

"Our group yesterday held a meeting with other Burmese associations here
and discussed how we can help the disaster victims in regions hit by
Cyclone Nargis," the monk said.

"Sasana Moli is going to organize a disaster relief committee to plan aid
strategies. As we no longer have our secretary [the late U Kawvida], we
are going to appoint coordinators to work in different fields."

The group urged Burmese people overseas and other supporters to contribute
to their assistance fund.

“Mostly we will be seeking donations online and from other Burmese
communities,” the spokesperson said.

“We would also like to urge Burmese families overseas to chip in with
donations to help our fellow Burmese people inside the country who are
suffering from this horrific disaster.”

Burmese families in South Korea, Finland and Singapore have already
offered assistance to Sasana Moli to help disaster victims inside the
country.

____________________________________

May 8, Irrawaddy
UN frustrated over visa, custom delays - Lalit K Jha

United Nations officials urged the Burmese government to relax—if not wave
altogether—visa and custom requirements, which are preventing aid workers
and humanitarian supplies from reaching the survivors of the cyclone that
devastated the delta region five days ago.

At a press conference at the UN headquarters in New York, John Holmes, the
emergency relief coordinator of the United Nations and
under-secretary-general for humanitarian affairs, said the visa issue has
been taken up at the highest level in the Burmese government.

"We would like to move much faster in terms of visas and customs
clearance," Holms said. In similar situations in the past, such as the
Iran and Pakistan earthquakes, some of those procedures had been waived
altogether, at least in the early stages, he said, adding: "This helps a
lot."

UN officials are frustrated that they have not been able to move into
Burma more quickly. Even the UN Secretary-General, Ban Ki-moon, issued a
statement urging the junta to respond to the outpouring of international
support by quickly facilitating the arrival of aid workers and clearance
of relief supplies.

"The UN would like it to move much faster, both in terms of visas and in
terms of rapid customs clearance of goods that were already in Myanmar in
some cases, or would be arriving shortly," Holms said.

Holms said that during discussions with Burmese officials, the explanation
given for the delay in issuing visas was that it was a question that
needed to be decided by higher authorities.

Burma has been ruled by military generals for more than 40 years and  is
one of the most secretive, authoritarian and xenophobic governments in the
world.

Holms said it was extremely important to get as much aid as possible, as
quickly as possible, to the people who are living without safe drinking
water, food and medicine, particularly in the delta area. It will be
especially difficult to reach that area, because most of the roads are
under water and communication with the millions of people affected by the
disaster is difficult.

A small number of international staff and emergency relief workers already
in Burma are attempting to move into the delta area. Normally, the
military government requires international aid staff to be accompanied by
Burmese minders. Holmes said that issue was also under discussion with the
authorities.

UN officials said they hope to have a small assessment team in Burma on
Thursday. The team was comprised of Burmese nationals who work for the UN,
and they did not require visas.

Meanwhile, a UN plane in Brindisi is being loaded with relief supplies and
should arrive in Burma in the next few days, Holmes said.

The World Food Programme is expected to have a plane in Burma on Thursday
with 45 metric tons of high-energy biscuits.

Holms said things were starting to move in the "right direction."

Asked if the UN should invoke its "right to protect" mandate to force
Burmese officials to accept international assistance, Holms said he did
not think it would help.

"At this moment, to embark on this could be seen, at least by some people,
as being on a confrontational path. The UN is having useful and
constructive discussions with authorities and things are moving in the
right direction, even though the UN wanted it to move faster," he said.

The Burmese government, as the sovereign authority, is in charge of the
aid efforts, he said.

"What the UN is trying to do is to support the government's aid efforts as
much as possible. The present situation is no different from any other
disaster."

____________________________________

May 8, Associated Press
U.S. considers air drops for Burma cyclone victims

The United States is considering air-dropping food aid and other relief
supplies to victims of the devastating cyclone in Burma, even if the
closed regime resists, a U.S. official said Thursday.

The option is not ideal, but is being studied by the U.S. and several
other countries as a last resort if Burma's military leaders continue to
limit outside aid and expertise that would help millions of people
affected by the storm, said Ky Luu, the director of the U.S. Office of
Foreign Disaster Assistance.

Air drops are often inefficient and, compounded with the junta's refusal
to accept most offers of assistance, could have broader international
legal implications, he said, adding that the best option would be for
Burma to accept the aid.

Still, "anything that might have a positive impact is being looked at and
is being discussed," Luu told reporters at the State Department. "Air
drops (are) not the most efficient manner in terms of providing relief
assistance and, in the end, may create more harm than anything else."

"So, yes, we're looking at it, but the immediate needs are for open access
for the current existing operational partners and for the regime, in order
to open up, to provide for additional relief workers to get on the
ground," Luu said.

His comments came as the United States and other donor countries continued
to wait for permission to enter with tons of assistance and disaster
relief personnel to assess what the needs are and move toward distributing
the aid. He and other U.S. officials on Thursday reiterated appeals for
Burma to allow such access.

AID FLIGHTS:

Among other countries considering air drops are France, whose foreign
minister has suggested the possibility of forcing assistance into Burma,
and Italy, officials said.

Air drops of aid in crisis situations without permission from the host
government would be complicated, as international law is unsettled on the
issue. Pentagon officials have said they are wary of such a scenario
because it could be considered an invasion.

But French Foreign Minister Bernard Kouchner said this week that air drops
could be allowed under the U.N.'s "responsibility to protect" mandate,
which applies to civilians.

Luu said that concept was being discussed in Washington as well as by
senior relief officials and diplomats who are now in Bangkok, Thailand,
trying to coordinate the international response to the disaster.

Officials said there were several problems with air drops into an
unpermissive environment, especially if there are no experts on the ground
to monitor the distribution of aid. Desperate people could riot over the
assistance and there is the possibility that security forces might
confiscate it and keep it out of the hands of the needy, they said.

The government has reported more than 20,000 deaths and more than 40,000
missing from Cyclone Nargis that hit Burma, particularly the Irrawaddy
River delta, last weekend. A U.S. diplomat said Wednesday that the death
toll in the delta could exceed 100,000. The U.N. estimates that a million
people have been left homeless.

Meanwhile, the U.S. military was stepping up preparations for a
humanitarian mission to Burma, readying ships and Marines now in the
region for a multinational exercise.

The U.S. Air Force moved more airplanes to a staging area in Thailand and
the Navy was transporting Marines and helicopters into Thailand from an
aviation combat element of the USS Essex expeditionary strike group. Ships
were to move later Thursday, a defense official said on condition of
anonymity because he was not authorized to speak on the record.

The Navy and Marine Corps happened to have ships and thousands of service
members in the Gulf of Thailand for a multinational exercise on
humanitarian missions — an exercise that started Thursday.

Because it would take the ships several days to get to the Burma area, the
Navy was sending some of the group's helicopters and troops ahead over
land, the official said.

Officials said that although the military junta has not agreed to allow
U.S. humanitarian assistance, it did ask for some other U.S. help —
satellite pictures of the cyclone-devastated areas.

"They asked our defense attache at the embassy in Rangoon for some imagery
and we provided it," said Marine Maj. Stuart Upton, a Pentagon spokesman.

Separately, the U.S. Senate passed a resolution urging humanitarian aid to
Burma's people and asking Burma's government to remove restrictions on
international aid groups.

Democratic Sen. John Kerry said in a statement that the cyclone "could be
remembered as the moment when the United States and the world came to the
aid of the Burmese people and made it clear that while we loathe the junta
that has isolated Burma from the world and oppressed its citizens, we find
common cause with the people of Burma and we will be there by their side
at this difficult time."

____________________________________

May 8, Agence France Presse
Rice says Myanmar crisis 'not a matter of politics'

Rice on Wednesday urged cyclone-hit Myanmar to admit international
disaster relief, saying it was a humanitarian crisis rather than a
political issue.

"What remains is for the Burmese (Myanmar) government to allow the
international community to help its people," Rice told reporters in
Washington.

"It should be a simple matter. It's not a matter of politics. It's a
matter of a humanitarian crisis," Rice said.

Rice, flanked by Macedonian foreign minister Antonio Milososki after talks
with him on US-Macedonian issues, said she was "deeply concerned by the
growing humanitarian crisis in Burma."

She added: "This is the type of crisis that will only get worse."

Shari Villarosa, the charge d'affaires in Yangon, told reporters in
Washington during a conference call that "there may well be over 100,000
deaths in the delta area," citing an unnamed international relief
organization.

Her spokesman, Sean McCormack, said Washington is urging Thailand,
Malaysia, Indonesia, Japan, India, China and others to use "any leverage"
they may have with Myanmar to allow relief teams into the cyclone-stricken
nation.

US National Security Advisor Stephen Hadley told reporters that Myanmar's
failure to issue visas to disaster assistance teams is "simply going to
compound the humanitarian disaster."

He echoed some of Rice's points when he said "we again join our voices
with really the whole international community and say this is not about
politics. This is about helping people in need.

"And the junta should please open its doors and let the international
community provide humanitarian assistance to the people in Burma because
they need it desperately," he said.

But when pressed to confirm whether he thought Myanmar was refusing aid
for political reasons, he replied: "I don't know, because it's not just
us, it's not just that the United States stay out, it's everybody stay
out.

"And it's hard to understand, given the extent of ... the calamity that
has befallen the people of Burma. I don't want to say a whole lot more,
because I don't want to politicize this," Hadley said

____________________________________

May 8, Associated Press
France, Britain urge Myanmar to lift restrictions on cyclone aid

The foreign ministers of France and Britain are urging Myanmar's military
leaders to let foreign aid into the country after its devastating cyclone.

French Foreign Minister Bernard Kouchner and British Foreign Secretary
David Miliband are asking Myanmar's junta to "lift all restrictions on the
distribution of aid."

International attempts to get relief supplies and aid workers into the
isolationist country are apparently still encountering problems. An
estimated 1 million people have been left homeless.

Kouchner and Miliband's appeal was printed Thursday in France's Le Monde
newspaper.

____________________________________
OPINION / OTHER

May 8, Irrawaddy
Humanitarian intervention needed [Editorial]

As a major humanitarian crisis in Burma unfolds and the death tool reaches
100,000, it is becoming increasingly clear that the Burmese military
government is not doing enough to save lives.

This is a regime with a solid a reputation for deception and suppression
of the truth. However, the reality of the cyclone’s devastation and the
junta’s fatal intransigence and stubbornness cannot be swept under the
carpet.

The world, again, feels sympathy and is ready to offer aid packages to
Burma. The military regime’s slow response to the disaster and the
reluctance to allow relief to disaster zones has been a disgrace.

The junta’s troops and members of the servile Union Solidarity and
Development Association—who were all visibly active in attacking Buddhist
monks and activists during the September uprising—are now conspicuously
absent in the battered flooded streets of Rangoon.

Meanwhile, state-run media runs repeated footage of well-groomed generals
and officers handing boxes of food and water to humble recipients.

This is a crisis. However, it is also a great opportunity for the regime
to embrace the international community and cooperate with the rest of the
world to help the cyclone victims, rebuild their communities and,
ultimately, save lives.

So far, the signs are not encouraging. Though the Burmese leaders have
officially asked for assistance, aid agencies have made it clear that
supplies are being prevented from getting through. Six days after the
cyclone, the World Food Programme could only confirm nine tonnes of food
delivered to the needy; another 124 tonnes of rice, beans and high-energy
biscuits remain sitting at Rangoon Airport or in transit.

UN officials, ambassadors and foreign diplomats have been denied or are
still waiting for visas to enter Burma.

Until yesterday, a UN “disaster assessment” team and a group of experts
were still waiting in Bangkok for clearance to travel to Burma, according
to Rashid Khalikov, director of the UN Office for the Coordination of
Humanitarian Affairs.

US President George W Bush and his wife, both staunch supporter of Burma’s
democracy movement, offered their country’s help.

What a perfect opportunity for the Burmese regime to start working with
its critics.

On Tuesday, Bush again reached out to the urged the military junta. “Let
the United States come to help you, help the people,” he said. “Our hearts
go out to the people of Burma. We want to help them deal with this
terrible disaster.

“We're prepared to move US Navy assets to help find those who've lost
their lives,” he said, but added that in order to do so, “the military
junta must allow our disaster assessment teams into the country.”

The US also announced it has increased its financial contribution to $3.25
million and eased some of the economic sanctions on Burma in order to
facilitate aid to the cyclone victims.

A Pentagon spokesperson confirmed the US Navy has three ships in the Gulf
of Thailand, including the USS Essex, which is carrying 1,800 marines, 23
helicopters and five amphibious landing craft.

“The military has vast resources and experience in dealing with this type
of situation,” Pentagon Press Secretary Geoff Morrell told reporters.

“And we stand ready to provide that expertise and those resources to the
Burmese people, hopefully, when their government sees fit to ask us to
provide them."

It is the high time the regime in Burma accepted such offers to help save
lives and rebuild communities hit by the cyclone.

On Wednesday, French Foreign Minister Bernard Kouchner said the United
Nations should invoke its “responsibility to protect” civilians as the
basis for a resolution to force the delivery of aid to Burma, even if has
to do it over the objections of the military government.

Some senior UN officials and humanitarian officers including John Holmes,
head of the humanitarian section at the UN, feared that this would lead to
confrontation. He said that negotiations are still going on with Burmese
officials and making some progress.

Unfortunately, the victims of the cyclone cannot wait while diplomats sit
around tables and chit-chat. People are dying.

The military leaders cannot pretend they are capable of dealing with the
disaster themselves. To do so, in fact, constitutes a crime of negligence
against the victims of the cyclone.

To date, the Burmese military government has failed miserably. It is
incapable of mounting a relief effort of this scale.

This has nothing to do with sovereignty and national pride. When the
deadly tsunami struck in December 2004, international aid and US naval
assistance were warmly welcomed by Indonesia.

Burmese military government should accept the offers from the US and the UN.

This is a win-win situation for the junta. It can use the disaster as a
springboard to rebuild its relationship with the West.

However, if the regime continues refusing to cooperate and hampering the
international aid effort, then forceful humanitarian intervention must be
considered—not only to save the victims of Cyclone Nargis, but to help
alleviate the suffering the people of Burma have endured under this
repressive regime for too long.

____________________________________

May 8, Irrawaddy
How the regime hides its billions - Sean Turnell

On May 10 most of the people of Burma will go to the polls in a referendum
on a new constitution. This constitution aims to cement in place a regime
(now styled the ‘State Peace and Development Council,’ or SPDC) that has
impoverished this once prosperous land.

The SPDC will likely win the referendum. Of course, the regime was
surprised at the polls once before when, in 1990, its hubris saw it suffer
a crushing defeat at the hands of Burma’s National League for Democracy
(and its leader, the later Nobel Peace Prize laureate, Aung San Suu Kyi),
but the SPDC is unlikely to make the same mistake again.

A pity for Burma’s economy. Once the world’s largest rice exporter and the
richest country in Southeast Asia, Burma today can barely feed itself, and
the lucrative rice trade it once commanded has been lost to Thailand,
Vietnam, and other countries that were once its peers.

Responsibility for Burma’s economic disaster lies squarely with the
military regimes that have ruled over the country since 1962, and who
thereafter claimed the principal portion of Burma’s output, while
simultaneously (and deliberately) undermining and dismantling basic market
institutions.

Today there are no effective property rights in Burma, and the pretences
to the rule of law are a mockery. Meanwhile, macroeconomic policy-making
is capricious, unpredictable and ill-informed.

The SPDC spends greatly in excess of its revenue and, like many such
regimes through the ages (and Zimbabwe in the present), resorts to the
printing presses to finance its spending. Accelerating inflation and
monetary chaos have been the inevitable consequences, just one
manifestation of which is the decade-long plummet in the (blackmarket)
exchange rate of Burma’s currency, the kyat.

Most of Burma’s prominent corporations are owned by the military, and the
country is judged by Transparency International as the second most corrupt
in the world. Burma spends a mere 1.4 per cent of GDP on health and
education, less than half that spent by the next poorest country in Asia,
and it is the only country in the region whose defence budget is greater
than that of health and education combined. In 2008 Burma’s per-capita GDP
will amount to only around US $290 per annum. Over 70 percent of this
income will be spent on food, by far the highest proportion so devoted in
the region.

Over the last five years or so, however, a potential ‘light’ at the end of
Burma’s tunnel of economic despair has appeared courtesy of the country’s
emergence as a major regional supplier of natural gas. At present most of
this gas is sold to Thailand, but new fields will shortly provide for vast
sales to China.

Rising gas prices as well as increasing output volumes have caused Burma’s
gas exports to soar, driving a projected balance of payments surplus for
2007/08 of around $2.4 billion. International reserves, hitherto barely
sufficient to cover more than a month or so of imports, will rise to a
(relatively) healthy $3.5 billion.

Burma’s gas earnings should be transforming the country’s prospects—and
allowing the fiscal space for the spending on basic infrastructure, health
and education the country so desperately needs.

Alas, however, this is not happening, and the foreign exchange revenues
Burma is accumulating are currently making next to no impact on the
country’s fiscal accounts.

The reason is simple. Burma’s gas earnings are being allocated in the
government’s published accounts at the ‘official’ exchange rate of the
kyat. This official rate (at around 6 kyat:$1) over-values the currency by
around 150–200 times its market value (which is currently about 1,000
kyat:$S1). Such exchange rate duality imposes other costs on Burma’s
economy, but critical here is that the use of the official exchange rate
to convert the gas earnings into kyat dramatically underplays their true
(potential) contribution to state finances.

Recorded at the official rate, Burma’s gas earnings for 2006/07 of $1.25
billion translate into 7.5 billion kyat, or a mere 0.6 per cent of budget
receipts. By contrast, if the same US dollar earnings are recorded at the
market exchange rate, their contribution of 1,500 billion kyat would more
than double total state receipts, and more or less eliminate Burma’s
fiscal deficit.

What could be the motivation for this deliberate withholding of financial
wherewithal to the state? No-one but the Chairman of the SPDC, Gen Than
Shwe, can know for sure.

The most likely explanation is that, so recorded, Burma’s foreign exchange
earnings can be kept ‘quarantined’ from the public accounts, and thereby
are available for the portioning out by the regime to itself and its
cronies.

Where the funds are located is also a mystery.  The only thing we can be
certain of is that they are safely locked away from the people of Burma,
to whom they rightly belong, and to whom they might just make a
difference. In another country this scam would be telling on May 10. That
it will not be so tells us much about Burma’s tragic present.

Sean Turnell is with Burma Economic Watch, Macquarie University, Sydney,
Australia

____________________________________

May 8, The Nation (Thailand)
Mixed signals from burma over disaster – Htet Aung Kyaw

Many people, including this correspondent, were shocked with the state
media's announcement that the death toll of cyclone Nargis had reached
4,000 on Sunday.

As I workfor a daily news service, I was not surprised when they announced
351 deaths on Saturday. This is because, I was informed by an official
from Burma's meteorological department which we (DVB) aired on April 30,
that the cyclone would hit the Irrawaddy delta, coastal regions and
Rangoon on Friday.

If the wind speed was just 64 kilometres per hour as the authority
forecast, there would not be much damage. We are hearing reports today of
over 22,000 deaths and 40,000 people missing. So, what was wrong? Was the
meteorology department playing down the risk, or was it a lack of modern
equipment that would have enabled it to give warning of the real ferocity
of the cyclone? I have been working in the media for over a decade and I
know very well the junta's notorious censorship policy, especially on
political news. But I did not think they would hide the facts of a looming
disaster after the devastating 20004 tsunami. But my optimism was totally
wrong when I read an AFP news report.

"Forty-eight hours before [tropical cyclone] Nargis struck, we indicated
its point of crossing [landfall], its severity and all related issues to
Myanmar [Burmese] agencies," Indian Meteorological Department spokesman BP
Yadav told the French news agency on Tuesday after US First Lady Laura
Bush made allegations that the military junta had failed to warn its
citizens of the impending storm.

The allegation came not only from the US but also from survivors in the
delta region.

"I heard we would be hit by winds of up to 64 kilometres per hour from
Myanmar Athan. That's why we were unprepared" said Aye Kyu from Latbutta
city where he said about 100,000 people were dead or missing.

He said about 20 people had been killed by collapsing buildings but
hundreds of thousands were swept away when the wind and tidal wave hit
low-lying areas where dozens of villages literally fell into the sea.

"The winds were over 240 kilometres per hour and the waves higher than my
home," he told this correspondent in a telephone interview on Tuesday.

"Victims have nothing and are just lying in the grounds of the monastery
and they urgently need food, water, shelter, medicines," he said. The UN
should give aid directly to victims, not through the government, he said.

He asked for the referendum, which is due to be held on Saturday, be
postponed for two weeks.

"As we are all Buddhists, including the top generals, we should respect
the thousands of deaths that have occurred. I believe the survivors are
not ready to vote before then."

____________________________________
STATEMENT

May 8, National Health and Education Committee
Appeal to the international community for immediate assistance to the
people of Burma affected by Cyclone Nagris

This is not the time to wait for visas to provide aid to the people who
are dying from starvation and lack of water in Burma's Delta areas.

International Governments and the United Nations can no longer pay any
attention to the sham sovereignty of the State Peace and Development
Council. Any delays in providing aid to our people just adds to the
unbearably long list of crimes against humanity already committed by the
military junta.

We are calling on all governments and UN bodies to provide aid immediately
to our people who are dying in their thousands. International humanitarian
organizations and local community organizations must do whatever they can
to prevent further deaths and to restore life in Burma. This is not the
time to respect Burma's border controls. National restrictions that are
causing further deaths, do not deserve anyone's respect.

The global community has a responsibility to protect its citizens. The
SPDC has time and again failed to protect the people of Burma, and this
time the scale of their neglect is killing our people. The United Nations
must invoke the Responsibility To Protect, even if it is necessary to
coerce or force the regime to comply with providing protection and
rehabilitation to its citizens.

For Further Information

Dr Cynthia Maung
win7 at loxinfo.co.th