BurmaNet News, May 24, 2008

[Editor]

May 24, 2008 Issue # 3475

QUOTE OF THE DAY
The Burmese junta has no legal right to continue her [Aung San Suu Kyi]
detention. Continuing to detain her will be violating its own law.
—Jared Genser, president of Freedom Now

INSIDE BURMA
Mizzima News: Burma closes second round of referendum polling [Live Update]
Irrawaddy: Cyclone survivors forcibly evicted
Reuters	: Cyclone increases army looting on Burma borders
Reuters: Myanmar cyclone meeting more about access than aid
AP: Donor Conference to raise funds for Burma

BUSINESS / TRADE
Irrawaddy: Weekly business roundup

REGIONAL
Jakarta Post: Myanmar monks 'disappointed' with RI stand

INTERNATIONAL
AP: Aid agencies cautiously welcome Burma pledge
PA: Minister to visit cyclone-hit Burma

OPINION / OTHER
Irrawaddy: Why the Burmese junta failed to respond to Cyclone Nargis
Irrawaddy: Don’t hold your breath – Yeni

____________________________________
INSIDE BURMA

May 24, Mizzima News
Burma closes second round of referendum polling [Live Update]

Burma began its second phase of referendum to approve the draft
constitution on Saturday with polling booths opening at 6 a.m. (local
time) for the 47 disaster-hit townships in Irrawaddy and Rangoon division.

The Burmese military junta was forced to postpone the polling date for
these 47 townships from the original date of May 10, after the killer
Cyclone Nargis lashed the country's Irrawaddy delta and Rangoon division
on May 2 and 3.

Mizzima will continue to update with situational reports on the polling,
which will continue till 4 p.m. (local time) today.

More 'yes' votes in Kyimyindine
Update: May 24, 2008 29:30 - Burma Standard Time

As the polling for the last bit of Burma's referendum closes at 4 p.m on
Saturday, some booths counted the numbers of votes as was mentioned in the
junta's referendum law.

However, as much expected Myint Aye from the Human Rights Defenders and
Promoters (HRDP) , who monitored the counting, said 'yes' votes surpasses
'No' votes in several booths.

The ballots that turn into 'Yes'
Update: May 24, 2008 29:20 - Burma Standard Time

Local residents and members of Human Rights Defenders and Promoters said
authorities at polling booths in Kyimyindine and North Okklapah townships
in Rangoon forcibly tick ballots without the wishes of the voters and made
them cast 'yes' votes.

Interview with residents and HRDP members Myint Aye (member of HRDP)

"Yesterday authorities came door to door to give us sample cards that
include name, address, and registration number. It seems we have to tick
'yes' by ourselves, but when we arrive the polling booth we did not even
have the chance to tick 'yes' they just did it for us. The officials
working in the booth call us 'come come, what is your name
' and look for
our names from the registration and took out a ballot paper and told us
'ok, sign here we will get the rest done..' and they just tick 'yes' and
told us to cast in any bos we want."

"But for people who are aware they carried their our pen and cross the
ballot. But for most people, they did not have to do anything. There are
20 wards in Kyimyindine township and the polling booths are made at
Buddhist community halls or in monasteries."

Resident of Shwe Pauk Kan ward no. (13) in North Okkla township

"Today when I went to cast my vote, the ward chairman U Sinh Aye came in
and took my ballot and tick 'yes'. And when I went again to cast the
ballot in to the box, one of the official took the ballot from me saying
'let me check it otherwise it might be invalid' and look at my ballot. I
went to cast the vote because they have said it is compulsory. I do not
support but I also do not dare to go against it. I was thinking of casting
a blank ballot. But they made it into 'Yes'."

Resident of Myimyindine Seikgyingasin ward

"I feel bad when elders and officials of our ward cast the ballot on my
behalf because as much as I know I have the right to cast the ballot with
whatever choice I want to make but they did it in advance for me."

"The authorities gave us sample ballot papers with a tick 'yes' in them
and when I went to booth, they just took it from me. But when I asked our
headman, 'am I not to cast my vote?' he said 'No need to cast anymore it
is already taken in advance'."

"They never told me that they are collecting my vote in advance. I never
knew I had cast my vote. They have come and collected my identity card
number, with my address and name but they never told me it was advance
voting. So, I really feel bad as I could not vote with my own choice."

Poll booths closed in Thingankyun Township
Update: May 24, 2008 28:52 - Burma Standard Time

As scheduled, Poll booths at Thingankyun Township in Rangoon closed as the
clock strikes four in the evening.

"At 4 p.m the booths are closed. But till now there was no counting of the
votes. There are many people who did not vote. And most people in our
locality cast 'No' votes. There are several USDA members watching over the
polling. But everything was smooth with out any disturbances. We did not
care about the consequences and cast 'no'. But the authorities are also
clever, they have collected all the 'yes' votes in advance because they
know people coming here will vote 'No'."

Voting on behalf of family members
Update: May 24, 2008 28:45 - Burma Standard Time

Interview with a voter in Rangoon's Thanlyin town

"The polling booths are open from 9 a.m to 1 p.m. the voting in our place
Thanlyin town's Myoma Taung ward is not at all honest. The authorities
said we have to cast our own votes but they accept people to vote on
behalf of their family members. U Thein Lwin, who cast his votes at the
no. (1)  polling booth also cast votes for his six family members. As far
as I know more than 30 families have been casting votes on behalf of their
family members."

"Authorities in the polling booths force the people to tick their votes.
Specially those who does not know anything, they would ask them to tick
their ballot papers. But for me I crossed the ballot because I don't like
the way they are doing things. In Thanlyin there are 18 wards, and people
said the same things happened in other booths too."

Interview with a worker at the petroleum factory in Yenan ward no. (1)

"On our ballot papers we have to write or name, father's name, address,
work registration number. Our officer said if we cross the ballot papers
they will not take responsibility of our job. The power and energy
minister himself warn us that those who cross are rebelling. He came and
told us in advance. For me I cast my vote in advance."

"there are about 2000 workers, and if we add with their family members it
is about 4000. I stay outside of the factory, so I gave advance vote. I
don't know for people who stayed in the employees ward. I signed on the
registration."

'Tick it like this'
Update: May 24, 2008 28:28 - Burma Standard Time

Interview with a voter from Laydawngkan ward in South Dagon township in
Rangoon

"Our polling booth is inside the school. The authorities at the booth will
tell most elderly people, who are illiterate to 'tick it like this' and
would tick it for them and asked them to cast in the ballot box. For
workers in Hercules textile company in east Laydawngkan, since the
employers did not give holiday, they are required to cast votes inside the
factory itself."

Famous comedian not interested in polling
Update: May 24, 2008 28:20 - Burma Standard Time

Burma's prominent actor and comedian Thura (a.k.a) Zarganar said he is not
interested in casting his vote in the referendum polling.

"My only concern now is how to help the people who affected by the
Cyclone. Most of us are only interested in helping the people, no one is
interested in the polling. For me I don't even know where the booths are.
And I don't think it will make any difference even if I go and cast my
vote."

Zargarnar and his artist colleagues from music, film and literary society
have been helping the victims of cyclone in their own capacities.

Polling station officer claims huge voter turnout
Update: May 24, 2008 26:50 - Burma Standard Time

A polling station officer in Rangoon's Thanlyin Township said there has
been an impressive voter turnout for today's referendum.

"Polling is being conducted in the whole township and I am in-charge.
There has been a good voter turnout today. We will be closing the booths
shortly. Everything has been fine and went smoothly. The voter turnout is
good."

Prominent Actor Kyaw Thu unaware of referendum

Burma's prominent actor Kyaw Thu said he was not even aware of the
referendum polling being held for 47 townships in Rangoon and Irrawaddy
division as he was fully engaged in helping out the victims of Cyclone
Nargis.

"Honestly, I am not even aware that the referendum polling is today. I
will not cast my vote because there are volunteers who came to our office
between 7 a.m to 8 p.m to help the cyclone victims. So, when I reached
home the polling booths will be closed."

Kyaw Thu, who headed the Free Funeral Service, has been engaged in helping
victims of the cyclone since May 9, going to places in Rangoon division.
The group has now expanded their operation to the Irrawaddy delta and have
been distributing basic ration such as rice, oil, salt and clothes and
plastic sheeting to more than 100 places in Rangoon and Irrawaddy
divisions.

'Tick it like this'
Update: May 24, 2008 26:30 - Burma Standard Time

A voter in Thwante town of Rangoon division said authorities showed voters
in the booth how to 'tick the votes'.

"There are two polling booths in our locality Zaethit ward. Authorities
asked every one who came to vote, to 'tick'. The authorities and even the
commission of the booth Ma Myint and Daw Amar would tell people what to do
. The authorities including the chairman of the ward came from house to
house and gave us sample ballot papers. At the back of the ballot, there
were the names, addresses, and identity card numbers."

"Most of us crossed the ballot, and when I asked people close to me they
all said they have crossed the ballots."

"There were no policemen but there were about 10 people including USDA
members. One of my friends from Moemaka village in Thwante township told
me that they were given only a slip of paper and were told to return
saying their votes had been cast."

Worries about survival

Interview with a Buddhist monk at the old-age home in Pawdawmu ward of
Bogale in Irrawaddy division.

"I don't know if the refugees cast their votes but we are worried
rergarding their survival and are collecting money to get some aid for
them. Nobody came to say anything here. Many people said they are not even
aware of the polling today. They are struggling to survive because it is
more important. They are finding it difficult to get enough food."

Referendum: hardly any enthusiasm
Update: May 24, 2008 26:01 - Burma Standard Time

A shop owner in Rangoon's Hledan market said she is not half as excited
about casting her vote as she is about her business in her little shop.

"I am opening my shop and have no time to cast my vote. I don't even know
where the booths are. I am more interested in selling from my shop then
casting votes."

No time for voting in referendum
Update: May 24, 2008 25:54 - Burma Standard Time

Interview with a social worker from the Burmese film industry helping
cyclone victims

"I did not vote today, because I was not registered as I had to shift my
home. I shifted within Rangoon itself but because of it I did not get
registration. And I did not even try to register myself to where I
shifted. Because I was busy travelling to the cyclone affected areas. I
had to go to places and help people. I went to Dea Da Ye, Kun Chan Kone,
and other places with colleagues from the film industry and other NGOs.
That's why I gave voting a miss."

Relief for cyclone first priority

A resident at Shan street in Myaenikone in Rangoon, who has been helping
cyclone victims, said it is unfair and unjust to be voting while several
people are on the brink of death.

"How can I vote while many people are dying. It is more important to save
lives. The government has already got what they want. I don't even know
where the booths are. Nobody in my locality seems to be interested in the
referendum. I am now planning to go to Hlaing Tharyar to help  cyclone
victims. All of our friends will gather and bring food supplies."

No announcement of referendum
Update: May 24, 2008 25:15 - Burma Standard Time

Even as local authorities became busy with the referendum polling for the
47 disaster-hit townships in Irrawaddy and Rangoon division, the junta
made no public announcement abiut it.

Local residents in Rangoon said, the state-run television channels MRTV,
MRTV3 and MRTV4 has not broadcast any news or information regarding the
referendum.

Relief the priority not referendum
Update: May 24, 2008 25:09 - Burma Standard Time

A resident in Tamwe township of Ragoon said, "Local authorities collected
the votes in our ward about ten days ago. 'We all cast 'yes' votes because
they said we don't need to come on May 24' so in order to avoid all the
hassle we cast our votes in advance. Even if we go to vote it makes no
difference because they have already got what they want. And they will do
everything to win. What is important now is relief for the cyclone
victims."

Voters intimidated to cast 'Yes' votes
Update: May 24, 2008 25:02 - Burma Standard Time

A voter in Rangoon's Thingankyun township said, "authorities deployed
people with t-shirts on that had a tick 'Yes' sign on them, and whenever
confused people asked how to vote they showed the sign on their T-shirt
and said  'you have to tick like this'. This is the kind of campaigning
that is on for 'yes' votes.

Besides, the headman of the locality kept shouting 'vote 'yes' if you vote
'No' you will be penalized with three years in prison and a fine of
100,000 kyat (approximately USD 100). Since they appear to be really
taking action, people were scared and cast the 'yes' vote."

Boycotting referendum
Update: May 24, 2008 24:52 - Burma Standard Time

Interview with a Rangoon resident

"I did not go to cast my vote today. Earlier I thought I would cross (no)
the ballot, but I changed my mind. I want to boycott the polling, so I
stayed at home. They [authorities] have already announced> shamelessly
that the rest of the country has already supported the draft constitution
with more than 92 percent votes. So, it does not make any difference, so I
am staying home."

Disinterest in voting
Update: May 24, 2008 24:42 - Burma Standard Time

A voter in Rangoon's Lanmadaw Township said he was not interested in
taking part in the referendum process as the results are already known.

"There is this booth in the primary school on third street in ward no. 1.
There were several firefighters outside the booth and also about seven
USDA members. But there were only a few people who come to vote. I saw
only about 40 to 50 people. USDA members were announcing and exhorting
people in the locality to come and vote. But with the result from the rest
of the country already announced saying over 92 percent supported the
draft constitution; I did not feel like voting anymore."

Forcible ticking of votes in Dala Tadarchuang village
Update: May 24, 2008 24:31 - Burma Standard Time

Interview with a resident of Sanpya ward in Tadarchuang village of Dala town

"When I went to the booth to cast my vote, the chairman of the women's
affair Daw Myint Myint Than came and snatched my ballot and ticked 'Yes'.
I was actually about to cast the  'No' vote. So, I asked her to give me
another ballot, but the authorities said they had given me my ballot. But
I told them if they don't give me another ballot I will complain. Then
they reluctantly gave me another ballot on which I crossed and cast my
vote."

"It is not only me that the women's affair chairman and their members
snatched the ballots from. I saw about 4 to 5 people whose ballots were
snatched in front of me. Daw Myint Myint Than is actually waiting for
people to come in to the secret room where we have to vote. It is not at
all free polls."

Interview with another voter from Sanpya ward

"Yesterday at about 6 in the evening a local ward official came to my
house and gave me a ballot paper which had already been ticked (yes), and
asked me to sign against my name. And this morning when I went to the
polling booth, I asked them to give me a new ballot because my ballot had
already been ticked (yes). They took about five minutes and gave me a new
ballot. Then a young man came and asked me 'shall I tick for you' and I
said 'no I can do it myself' and I crossed the ballot and cast it."

Referendum without polling booths
Update: May 24, 2008 24:29 - Burma Standard Time

Kandawkalay ward, Mingalar Taung Nyunt Township, Rangoon

"There are no polling booths in Kandawkalay. The local officials have
collected the votes by visiting door to door since yesterday. So, there is
no need to go to the booths," a local resident in Kandawkalay ward told
Mizzima.

PhahSahpahlah ward, Mingalar Taung Nyunt Township

"Yesterday, local ward officials came to our homes and told us to cast our
votes and that only one person from each house could come and cast votes
on behalf of the family. So, I went to cast the votes So far I have seen
about a 100 or more people coming to the booth in ward no. 1 polling
booth," a voter at the ward no. (1) polling booth told Mizzima.

Rejecting freely

A voter in Rangoon's Thingakyun Township said he had freely voted against
the draft constitution at a ware house polling booth.

 "There are not many people in the booth. There are only about 20 people
and everything was smooth. The polling booth was set up in a ware house.
I went at about 7 a.m. I crossed the ballot and cast it. It was quite
free and there was no trouble. I did not see any policemen and there were
about 20 offcicials working in the booth."

Defying the authorities
Update: May 24, 2008 24:02 - Burma Standard Time

A voter who went to cast his vote in Rangoon's Dagon Myothit, ward no. 72,
said he defied the authorities by casting the 'No' vote in front of
officials.

"The authorities gave us the ballots in advance. And when I arrived at the
booth they collected the advance ballots and issued me a new ballot. And
when I was about to cast my vote, I saw the ballot was already ticked
'yes'.

There were details of my name, father's name, address, and identity card
number, and on the other side there were options of ticking and crossing.
The authorities seemed know what I was about to cast. So I asked one of
them that If I cast a 'No' will the authorities like the USDA, women's
affair associations and Swan Arrshin, take action against me in the
future. Then they told me that they will not trouble me in the future."

"I told them that since I am going to cast randomly I am afraid of being
taken action against for what I choose. But they assured me that there
will be no repercussion for what I choose as there is the constitution
that protects people and took out a copy of the draft constitution. Then I
told them that the draft constitution should have been made public for
about two months. And I cast the 'No' vote."

Advance votes collected since yesterday in Insein
Update: May 24, 2008 23:51 - Burma Standard Time

Residents in Rangoon's Insein Township complained that local authorities
have collected advance votes from the people since Friday, May 23.

The local authorities collected the people's name, addresses, and identity
card numbers.

"We had to give the names of the people who are at home and who are
travelling. We did not see any ballot papers. It is clear that they will
vote as they like on our behalf. And it will make no difference no matter
what we vote', the local resident in Insein told Mizzima.

Crosses on behalf of the family Relief priority rather then referendum
Update: May 24, 2008 23:43 - Burma Standard Time

A voter in Bogale town's Myoma ward said she went to the polling booth at
about 10 a.m. and cast  'No' votes on behalf of  her family members.

"This morning my brother went to booths and cast  'No' votes for all 10
family members. He said there were a lot of people in the booth," the
voters sister told Mizzima.

"Though there are some people casting their votes, there are also a lot of
people prioritizing relief efforts. People like Daw Myint Myint Mu (member
of the Human Rights Promoters and Defenders) have gone out since 9 a.m. to
donate rice to cyclone victims."

Crossing the ballot: Like father like daughter
Update: May 24, 2008 12:02 - Burma Standard Time

A woman from South Okklapah Township

"At 6 a.m. today I went with my father to the poling booth. I had made my
decision. I am like my father. I crossed the ballot like my father's
daughter. There was no one who forced us to tick (yes). I crossed the
ballot without caring for anyone. They [authorities] looked at me. They
had no uniforms on. All of were in plain clothes dress. There were about
five or six people.

I ticked 'Yes' as it makes no difference

A woman voter in Rangoon's Thuwana Township said she had gone to the
polling booth No. 24 in her locality this morning. She said since the
authorities are sure to convert any 'No' vote to the 'Yes', she cast a
'Yes' vote.

"They [authorities] took my pictures. There were members of the USDA and
ward officials monitoring the booth. I went alone to cast votes for my
whole family. There were quite a lot of people near the booth. We were
told earlier by the authorities to cast the 'Yes'. I signed once I arrived
at the booth. Even if I had cast the 'No' vote they would turn it into a
'Yes' vote, so it does not make any difference."

____________________________________

May 24, Irrawaddy
Cyclone survivors forcibly evicted - Saw Yan Naing

Thousands of homeless cyclone survivors from rural areas who sought
shelter and aid in Bogalay and Mawlamyinegyun have been forcibly expelled
from the towns by local government officials over the last five to six
days, said sources in Rangoon and Bogalay.
Speaking to The Irrawaddy by telephone, a resident in Bogalay said, “The
authorities won’t allow refugees to stay in town. They are sending them
back where they came from.

“Firstly, the yayaka (Ward Peace and Development Council) sent refugees
who have the ability to work to Maubin town and forced them to work as
laborers—digging rocks in a quarry for as little as 1,000 kyat (US 0.88
cent) per day. But some refugees wouldn’t work and ran away,” she said.

Min Zaw, a businessman in Rangoon who visited cyclone victims in Bogalay,
also said that the local authorities were urging refugees who were taking
shelter on the roadsides to stay out of sight while officials and aid
donors were in town.

“The yayaka drove through town and announced by loudspeaker that nobody
could stay in the street,” he said. “They said that if their leaders and
donors saw people living in the streets, it would hurt their dignity.”

Some refugees were detained in local police stations while others were
forcibly marched out of town and left in rural areas, Min Zaw said.

Meanwhile, members of the pro-junta group, the Union Solidarity and
Development Association, asked private donors not to deliver food and
supplies into the hands of the refugees, telling the donors that it would
make the refugees lazy and dependent on aid, said local sources.

Volunteer donors were asked to hand aid and cash donations over to local
authorities instead of delivering supplies directly to the victims, added
the sources.

Meanwhile, Ohn Kyaing, the spokesperson for a relief team sponsored by the
opposition National League for Democracy, said that a group of refugees in
Mawlamyinegyun was also forced by local authorities to return to their
villages in cyclone-ravaged areas.

On arrival in Mawlamyinegyun on May 10, he estimated that thousands of
refugees were seeking shelter in Mawlamyinegyun alone.

Ohn Kyaing said he also visited Bogalay and witnessed thousands of cyclone
victims seeking shelter in monasteries and schools while many were forced
to return to their devastated villages. He said he saw more than 4,500
refugees staying at nine monasteries in Bogalay.

Meanwhile, a total of 9,200 cyclone survivors from 84 villages in
Mawlamyinegyun, who were moved to relief camps in Wakema Township in the
delta, have been evicted and sent back to their native villages as part of
a resettlement plan, state-run newspaper The New Light of Myanmar said on
May 24.

About 30 Burmese private companies have been involved in the
reconstruction process in cyclone-affected areas in the aftermath of the
disaster with assignments by the regime to organize and undertake relief
and resettlement work in 17 affected townships, according to a Xinhua
report.

There are about 400 villages in Bogalay Township, according to local data.
The UN said that 95 percent of Bogalay Township was destroyed by the storm
on May 2-3.

Meanwhile, residents in Bogalay said that refugees were not receiving
sufficient food and shelter from the government and nongovernmental
organization, said sources. However, they added that philanthropists and
private donors have continued to make donations to refugees at local
monasteries and schools.

____________________________________

May 24, Reuters
Cyclone increases army looting on Burma borders

Cyclone damage to the Irrawaddy delta, Burma's rice bowl, has caused a
surge in looting in its restive border areas by poorly paid troops worried
about food shortages, residents and human rights groups say.

In the northwest town of Kale, which is reliant on the faraway delta for
much of its rice and salt, local residents said soldiers had stepped up
seizures of rice, fish and firewood since Cyclone Nargis hit the former
Burma on May 2.

In the evenings, soldiers were stopping villagers at checkpoints on their
way back from the market and taking their cash, often out of fear their
pay will be diverted to the cyclone-hit areas, victims and eyewitnesses
said.

"The situation has turned worse after the cyclone," a former transport
department officer told Reuters in the town of 300,000 people about six
hours' drive from the Indian border.

"Even the army supplies are restricted and they are not sure when they
will receive their salaries," he said.

Soldiers in army-ruled Burma are poorly paid—a private earns just 14,000
kyats ($12) a month—making extortion an endemic problem, especially in the
border areas where various ethnic militias have waged guerrilla war for
decades.

But around a dozen people interviewed in the town said the situation had
become much worse in the three weeks since Nargis, which left 134,000
people dead or missing in the delta and another 2.4 million in dire need
of aid.

"The military has no sympathy for the people," said a government clerk.
"They have no emotion or human feelings. They behave like animals."

Next month's arrival of the monsoon rains, which makes the jungle-clad
mountainous region's dirt roads impassable, is adding to fears about a
shortage of staples such as rice, salt and edible oils, causing ordinary
people to stock up.

Soldiers have put up check points on roads and are charging vehicles up to
100,000 kyats ($89) to pass.

"There is complete lawlessness here. Whatever the army says is the law,"
another resident said.

Security personnel are everywhere in the town, armed with automatic rifles
and walkie-talkies.

"These are the people responsible for food shortages and price rises
here," said a leader of the opposition National League for Democracy
(NLD), who asked not to be named.

"Military officers are not concerned about people's welfare and they have
no knowledge of civil administration. They only know how to squeeze
civilians."

Debbie Stothard of Bangkok-based human rights group ALTSEAN said she had
heard similar reports from eastern Shan state of military units seizing
food and supplies since the cyclone.

"They've started grabbing food for themselves because they are scared
there will not be enough food left," Stothard said. "It's about them
wanting to make sure they have enough supplies."

In Kale, soldiers were even demanding bribes to allow food and clothes
donated for cyclone victims taken to a Buddhist monastery for
distribution, residents said.

"Senior generals have lost control over these units," said one businessman
selling Chinese-made electronics. "They are operating independent of the
central command."

____________________________________

May 24, Reuters
Myanmar cyclone meeting more about access than aid - Ed Cropley

It is being dubbed a "pledging conference" but Sunday's international
donors' meeting in cyclone-hit Myanmar is going to be more about getting
the junta to open its doors than the world to open its wallet.

The overwhelming message to the former Burma's ruling generals is that if
they want any long-term help, they have to let foreign aid workers and
disaster experts into the worst-hit areas to assess the damage for
themselves.

"Hopefully, this can get them to understand that, yes, there is a mood of
solidarity and support in the international community, but that money
won't come, and the support won't come, unless they open the door a little
bit," one U.N. official said.

"The content of it is clearly much broader than a 'pledging conference' in
the sense that the sole aim is not to raise money. The aim is to remove
the various obstacles to getting assistance to the people," the official
said.

Much of the fund-raising is likely to centre on the U.N.'s $201 million
emergency appeal, which has racked up $57 million.

Three weeks after the disaster, junta supremo Than Shwe made what appeared
to be a concession in telling visiting United Nations chief Ban Ki-moon
that all foreign aid workers, regardless of nationality, would be allowed
in.

However, even if they are able to travel freely around the storm-ravaged
Irrawaddy delta, their findings will be too late to bridge the huge
discrepancies in thinking currently between aid agencies and the junta.

The two sides appear to be in broad agreement at least on the toll of dead
and missing, which the junta raised dramatically to 134,000 a week ago.

There is little agreement about anything else.

While the generals, via the state-controlled media, stress that the
immediate emergency relief phase is over and that reconstruction is now
key, the U.N. says help has only got to a quarter of the 2.4 million
people affected.

Even the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), which counts
Myanmar among its 10 members and which was instrumental in setting up
Sunday's conference, says it is worried about being kept in the dark.

The generals have told ASEAN Secretary-General Surin Pitsuwan that they
needed $11 billion in reconstruction aid but did not reveal how they came
to that figure or say how it would be spent.

"The shared concern is we don't know the extent of the damage. We don't
know the number of the dead, the number of the missing or the number of
the displaced," Surin said.

Without some clarity, the international community is unlikely to go
signing any cheques.

"No country is going to commit to anything until they are in agreement
about the facts on the ground," said former British ambassador to Thailand
Derek Tonkin, now a Myanmar analyst.

"You need to have a proper proposal presented, you need to have facts to
work on, and then you can tackle it."

(Editing by Darren Schuettler and Bill Tarrant)

____________________________________

May 24, Associated Press
Donor Conference to raise funds for Burma - Edith M. Lederer

More than 45 countries and regional organizations have signed up to attend
a donors conference in Burma on Sunday to mobilize funds for immediate
humanitarian assistance for the survivors of Cyclone Nargis, the United
Nations said Friday.

The conference in Burma's commercial capital, Rangoon, is being sponsored
by the UN and the 10-member Association of Southeast Asian Nations, which
is taking the lead in organizing the delivery of aid to an estimated 2.5
million people who remain in severe need following the devastating storm
on May 2-3.

UN deputy spokeswoman Marie Okabe said Friday the conference will focus on
immediate aid but at the same time will start looking into medium- and
long-term needs.

The United Nations launched an emergency appeal for US $187 million on May
9 and then raised the amount to $201 million. That figure will likely
increase further once disaster relief experts are able to survey the
hard-hit Irrawaddy Delta.

When the appeal was launched, the UN urged donor nations to pledge money
for food, water purification tablets, emergency health kits, mosquito
nets, cooking sets, plastic sheeting and water jugs. It said the money
would go to 10 UN agencies and nine non-governmental organizations.

Stephanie Bunker, spokeswoman for the UN Office for the Coordination of
Humanitarian Affairs, said Friday that so far the UN has received about
$50 million in contributions and about $42.5 million in pledges in
response to the appeal.

The pledging conference is taking place two days after UN
Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon announced a breakthrough in the delivery of
aid following a meeting with Burma's military strongman, Snr-Gen Than
Shwe.

Ban said Burma's ruling junta—after three weeks of refusing to allow all
but a few foreign aid workers into the hard-hit delta—will now allow all
emergency workers and civilian vessels into the cyclone-ravaged region, as
long as it is clear what the workers will be doing and how long they will
remain.

The UN chief will return to Rangoon on Sunday morning to co-chair the
conference.

In addition to the more than 45 countries and regional bodies expected at
the conference, Okabe said about a dozen UN agencies, funds, and programs,
and the World Bank, will also be represented. "In total, more than 300
participants are expected, including 243 representatives from member
states," she said.

Whether the agreement announced by Ban provides enough assurance to
potential donors to give generously remains to be seen.

Asean Secretary-General Surin Pitsuwan said Thursday that the success of
the donors conference will depend on the government's transparency in
assessing storm damage. He urged Burma's military rulers to relax
restrictions on foreign aid workers and present a coherent spending plan
for money pledged at the conference.

Surin said Burma has estimated losses from the storm at about US $11
billion, but he cast doubt on the figure.

Bunker said the UN is focusing on funding the emergency appeal, which
includes $4.8 million for early recovery efforts and $10 million for
agriculture, a particularly crucial sector because the delta is Burma's
rice bowl and many paddies are now flooded with salt water.

"The medium and longer term needs will have to be determined through very
thorough needs assessments," Bunker said.

Meanwhile Premier Wen Jiabao said Saturday China will pledge US $10
million for Burma cyclone aid at an international donors' conference.

Wen's announcement came as he and UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon visited
earthquake-hit areas of China.

"Tomorrow, the Chinese foreign minister will go to Myanmar [Burma], and we
will pledge US $10 million in aid," Wen said.

Beijing already has given its ally Burma relief supplies valued at 30
million yuan ($4.3 million).

____________________________________
BUSINESS / TRADE

May 24, Irrawaddy
Weekly business roundup - William Boot

Burma Junta Owes World Bank-IMF US $3.5 Billion

It’s hardly surprising the World Bank and its sister organization, the
International Monetary Fund, have refused to lend money to the Burmese
government in the wake of Cyclone Nargis.

The two agencies are owed at least US $3.5 billion—at 1980s interest
rates. The regime has failed to repay World Bank loans since 1987.

Even before the cyclone devastation, the junta had been abandoned by the
two financial institutions as one of several bad debtor states because of
its failure to give a financial account of itself.

The stubborn, silent technique much favored by the current junta chief
Snr-Gen. Than Shwe meant that Burma also failed to benefit from a debt
relief scheme.

“Myanmar [Burma] could not be assessed [for the scheme] due to lack of
data,” said a recent World Bank-IMF report. “The authorities indicated
that at present Myanmar will not be participating in the initiative and
regret that they will not be able to provide the required data to
undertake the assessment of their indebtedness.”

The agencies may have used diplomatic language but the translation means
Burma came nowhere near even attempting to qualify for the Heavily
Indebted Poor Countries initiative, which sought to help the world’s
poorest places eliminate their debt burden and qualify for new economic
assistance.

Aid Donors Faced with ‘Failed State’ Accountability Report

Asean Secretary-General Surin Pitsuwan will be pondering how he can
persuade potential post-cyclone aid donors to provide the $11 billion
rebuilding cost proposed by the military junta.

Governments and international organizations have questioned how the junta
arrived at the figure, since there seems to have been no access to the
Irrawaddy delta by damage assessment teams.

Surin said this week: “How do we know it’s $11 billion? How can we be
certain? Accessibility [to the delta] is important to guarantee confidence
and verify the damage and needs, otherwise confidence during pledging will
be affected.”

Surin is set to oversee a UN-Asean donor pledging conference in Rangoon
this weekend.

In its most recent assessment report on corruption levels, Transparency
International labeled Burma along with Somalia as the world’s two most
corrupt countries. The ranking was out of 180 countries assessed.

The TI report makes only fleeting references to Burma— because of the lack
of institutions within the country which can be assessed.

It is sober food for thought for potential international donors.

Burma Bids for South Asian Economic Group Membership

The Burmese junta has applied for membership in the South Asian
Association for Regional Cooperation economic grouping, which is led by
India.

The application is likely to be considered at the group’s next summit
meeting in Sri Lanka in July.

New Delhi, which has been vigorously developing its economic links with
the Burmese military regime, could be a membership sponsor, reported the
Press Trust of India.

India recently won an unprecedented contract to redevelop Burma’s western
port of Sittwe and the right to use the linked Kaladan River as a
commercial conduit to the sea for its landlocked northeastern states.

India will spend $100 million renovating the dilapidated Sittwe port in a
deal which also pays the Burmese regime its “share” of the cost—$10
million.

It’s not clear what benefits Burma will derive from membership of SAARC,
which lists agriculture, transport, science, technology, environment and
forestry among its areas of cooperation.

Countries with observer status in SAARC include China, Japan, Iran, the
United States and the European Union.

Third Burma-Thailand Gas Pipeline Decision Expected

A final decision on the route and likely cost of a third gas pipeline
linking Burma and Thailand is expected soon.
The third pipe will pump gas from the new Thai-developed major M-9
offshore gas field in the Gulf of Martaban, about 100 kilometers south of
Rangoon as the crow flies.

The developer, the Thailand-government controlled PTTEP, recently
confirmed that the field probably holds at least 50 billion cubic meters
of gas and probably much more because exploration is not yet complete. The
estimate of development cost is $1 billion or more.

Pipeline surveys have been carried out by the Burmese company Geocomp
Myanmar, which is due to present its survey report in Bangkok to PTTEP by
June.

The pipeline is likely to be about 70 kilometers long within Burma and run
close to the onshore segments of the Yadana and Yetagun offshore field
pipelines.

Gas pipelines between Burma and Thailand are mired in controversy, on both
sides of their joint border.

On the Burma side there have been persistent human rights allegations by
NGOs, renewed recently, that forced labor has been used in connection with
the pipelines’ construction and military security support. On the Thai
side, PTTEP’s parent company PTT has been ordered by the Thai high court
to surrender ownership of the pipelines in a conflict over unauthorized
land use.

Thailand is Burma’s biggest customer for natural gas, paying the regime
more than $2 billion a year in purchases.

PTTEP recently invited the Chinese state oil and gas developer China
National Offshore Oil Corporation as a 20 percent shareholder in the M-9
block.

The M-9 block is not expected to begin delivering gas before 2012.

____________________________________
REGIONAL

May 24, The Jakarta Post
Myanmar monks 'disappointed' with RI stand

Former president Abdurrahman "Gus Dur" Wahid (left) meets with Myanmarese
Buddhist monk Ashin Nayaka (second left) and Soe Aung (right) of the
National Council of the Union if Burma on Friday in Jakarta.
(JP/J.Adiguna)

Monks from Myanmar and opposition leaders said Friday they were
"disappointed" by Indonesia's stance regarding the military regime and
possible humanitarian intervention for cyclone survivors.

"We are disappointed by Indonesia's position," said Ashin Nayaka, a
representative of the International Burmese Monks Organization. "It is
Indonesia that had the experience of the Aceh tsunami," he said during a
visit to The Jakarta Post.

As a member of the United Nations Security Council, Indonesia has the
responsibility to push for the adoption of humanitarian intervention if
necessary, said Soe Aung, a spokesman of the National Council of the Union
of Burma, an umbrella organization for groups advocating democracy in
Myanmar.

However, at Friday's international donors' gathering in Yangon held three
weeks after Cyclone Nargis swept through the country, the regime finally
said it would welcome aid from any country.

"Indonesia must help us in this tragic moment," monk U Awbata said.

International observers noted how quickly Indonesia opened up to
international aid in the wake of the December 2004 tsunami. The government
had been at war with separatists in Aceh province, the hardest hit in the
disaster.

An agreement leading to peace in the region was eventually reached with
the Free Aceh Movement.

After the cyclone hit Myanmar on May 3, calls rose for the UN to invoke
its principle of "responsibility to protect" and fly in aid regardless of
the junta's position.

But while health experts warned of the possibility of more deaths among
survivors, Indonesia's envoy to the UN, Marty Natalegawa, said such UN
intervention would not help victims in the long run. He said the junta
could become even more isolated given its suspicions of outsiders'
intentions.

U Awbata said the priority now was to get aid in as fast as possible to
some 2.5 million affected people in the hardest-hit Irrawaddy Delta. "Aid
can get in any way possible, not only through the government," he said.

The Myanamarese said they were getting daily information from monks inside
the country on how aid was not reaching "80 percent" of survivors. "My
cousin witnessed food aid being sold in the market," Soe Aung said.

Over 130,000 are feared dead or missing, while survivors are largely
without clean water, food or shelter.

The Myanmarese were in town for three days to raise public awareness of
Myanmar through discussions and a photo exhibition, held among others by
the ASEAN Inter-Parliamentary Myanmar Caucus. The event at the Nikko Hotel
closed Friday.

They also met religious figures and groups such as the Buddhist
organization Walubi and Abdurrahman Wahid of the Muslim organization
Nahdlatul Ulama.

Soe Aung said Friday's result of the donors' gathering would be highly
significant, as Myanmarese would judge whether the junta would really let
the world help survivors.

He added that Myanmarese would also be watching to see whether the junta
on Saturday would go ahead with plans for the second round of the
referendum on amendments to its constitution, which critics have said
would entrench the junta's power if passed.

Saturday is also the final day of the detention of Aung San Syu Kyi, the
Myanmarese said, adding they were waiting to see whether the regime "will
violate its own law".

"Under their own law the regime can only detain a person up to five
years," Soe Aung said. The National League for Democracy led by Syu Kyi
won the last 1990 election, but the junta refused to hand over power to
her. She is still under house arrest.

____________________________________
INTERNATIONAL

May 24, Associated Press
Aid agencies cautiously welcome Burma pledge - Alexander G. Higgins

Burma's promise to open its doors to aid workers sparked hope among relief
agencies that they could soon bring food, shelter and medicine to more of
the cyclone victims in the country, but they cautiously awaited practical
details.
UN and other agencies have been building up stocks for the operation to
provide supplies to the estimated 2.5 million people made homeless or
otherwise affected by the May 2-3 storm and subsequent flooding, officials
said.

Neither the United Nations nor the international Red Cross, which have
been taking a lead in the operations, could say how many staff would be
sent in or how much the relief effort can be increased.

"Any move that enables more assistance to get out to people who are
affected we would welcome, but we just don't know," said Matthew Cochrane,
spokesman for the Geneva headquarters of the International Federation of
Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies.

Elisabeth Byrs, spokeswoman for the UN Office for the Coordination of
Humanitarian Affairs, said she didn't know how many aid workers could be
sent in to supplement operations already under way.

But, Byrs said, "This is not quantity. This is quality. We need experts in
coordination, in disaster management, in information management."

Agencies and countries have been flying in large amounts of supplies after
initial reluctance from the government to allow planes to land, but many
of the foreign aid workers have been restricted to Rangoon, the country's
largest city.

The Myanmar [Burma] Red Cross and local employees of other agencies have
handled much of the distribution, but supplies have only been brought to
about 500,000 of the estimated 2.5 million, the UN says.

Many international workers have been prevented by lack of permission or
transportation to move out into the Irrawaddy Delta and other coastal
areas hard-hit by the high winds, sea surge and flooding.

With much of the area still under water, there is a critical need for more
boats, including inflatable craft, to distribute supplies to people cut
off by water after the flooding and storm damage, Byrs said.

The UN has a large warehouse in Rangoon and a fleet of 30 trucks, four
barges and two boats, she said. Other storage facilities have been set up
or are being finished in five other cities.

Byrs said the United Nations had been gradually increasing the number of
international staff in Rangoon to the current total of about 100.

Bill Dowell, spokesman for CARE International, said UN and other agency
representatives met in Geneva on Friday to discuss the assurances given to
UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon during his meeting with Burma's Snr-Gen
Than Shwe in the capital, Naypyidaw, earlier in the day.

"One issue is getting into the country," Dowell said. "The next issue is
getting out into the field where things are actually happening. We're
taking it positively but with some caution to see how it actually works
out in the long run."

The Red Cross federation so far has 28 international staff in the country,
passing on supplies to the 27,000 volunteers of the national Red Cross who
have the widest humanitarian distribution network in Burma, said spokesman
Cochrane.

"They're getting out further and further," he said, but added, "We don't
have a clear idea of the amount of people they reach. Communication with
the delta is difficult. They're having to return to Rangoon to report back
to us, which slows us down."

So far, 146 relief flights have arrived in Rangoon since the storm. They
include 22 from the United Nations, 72 from individual countries, 38 from
the international Red Cross and 14 from other organizations, officials
said.

Contributions have also been flowing in, Byrs said. Some US $110 million
has been committed overall to relief operations and a similar amount
pledged.

A new relief center has been set up for international operations in the
delta township of Bogale, said Jean-Philippe Chauzy, spokesman for the
International Organization for Migration.

He said the organization, the UN and other agencies will use it to provide
tents, plastic sheets and other shelter items to homeless survivors.

The IOM already has set up a medical center in Bogale, where its doctors
are treating more than 100 cyclone victims every day, Chauzy said.

Three IOM medical teams are assessing health needs in the worst-hit areas,
he said.

"The assessment teams still face huge challenges in accessing affected
areas and delivering aid," an IOM statement said. "But we hope to take
delivery of four Zodiac inflatable boats next week, which will transform
our capacity to reach the most remote areas."

____________________________________

May 24, The Press Association
Minister to visit cyclone-hit Burma

International Development Secretary Douglas Alexander will travel to
cyclone-devastated Burma to join international talks on how to get help to
victims.

Mr Alexander will first fly to Thai capital Bangkok to meet UN Secretary
General Ban Ki-Moon, who said Burma's ruling junta had now agreed to grant
access to all aid workers.

The regime has ben condemned for blocking experts from getting into the
closed country where around 78,000 people were killed by the recent storm
and millions more have been severely affected.

Mr Ban announced the apparent breakthrough after meeting with junta leader
Senior Gen Than Shwe,

The Secretary of State will be in Rangoon on Sunday for an international
donors conference to discuss the way forward.

http://ukpress.google.com/article/ALeqM5gwcRAPborlO1VprGzXnzTtpKGDzw

____________________________________
OPINION / OTHER

May 24, Irrawaddy
Why the Burmese junta failed to respond to Cyclone Nargis - Ko Ko Maung
and Saya San

Question: Why did the Burmese military government, with its 400,000
battle-hardened army, respond so slowly to the Cyclone Nargis catastrophe?

Answer: It could not bridge the gulf between humanity and totalitarianism.

Since the purge of former head of military intelligence Gen Khin Nyunt and
his associates some years ago, Snr-Gen Than Shwe’s power has remained
unchallenged. His only other rival is second-in-command Vice Snr-Gen Maung
Aye, who waits on the sidelines.

Many reports suggest that each junta "super-cabinet" meeting since last
July has been cancelled. This is probably down to Than Shwe closing off
any opportunity for Maung Aye to make a power play. There are several
issues on which the government has been gridlocked over the past year—let
alone deal effectively with a major natural disaster.

While given to displays of military and occasional personal grandeur, Than
Shwe—now 76—has become more taciturn and reclusive, and simply does not
tolerate anyone contradicting his viewpoint. Ill-health has also starting
to plague him.

Formerly head of the armed forces’ psych-ops unit, he recently began to
display blatant signs of erratic behavior. Building a new capital for
himself in Naypyidaw—the “Home of Kings”—was seen widely as an expensive,
impractical and paranoid gesture.

Than Shwe nurses a distaste for all foreigners, but the wrath he saves for
Aung San Suu Kyi is legendary. His final meeting with former UN
Secretary-General Kofi Annan reportedly ended rather abruptly in 2005 when
Than Shwe stormed out of the room after Annan had mentioned Suu Kyi’s
name.

Part of the key to understanding the junta’s jittery response to the
cyclone disaster is the fear factor –Than Shwe has been known to shoot the
messenger and nobody who knows him wants to be the bearer of bad news. Bad
news is constantly toned down for the supreme leader and analysis
sweetened for his taste. In the end, any urgent calls for action were
muted; his subordinates retreated timidly into corners while the natural
disaster spun out of control. Millions of innocent people suffered as a
consequence.

As a former commander of offensives against Karen insurgents and
civilians, Than Shwe’s warhorse mentality must have bred a cold toleration
for human suffering over the years.

The imperative for Than Shwe, all along, was ensuring that his
long-awaited referendum went smoothly and resulted in entrenching his
rule.

The fact that the head of state said nothing publicly about the cyclone
for a fortnight left his underlings in the dark, paralyzed and unable to
react. They fell back on a 40-year tendency towards autarky—Burma could
and would deal with the problem and— as the strongest institution in the
country—the army would take the lead. Foreigners weren’t wanted and the
highly restrictive policies for regulating the UN and INGOs would be
maintained.

If nobody was telling Than Shwe the full extent of the damage, they
certainly weren’t pressuring him to waived restrictions. In a well-trodden
military junta response, foreign news of the massive disaster was in
dissonance with the official view and was categorized as the propaganda of
Western opponents and Burmese “traitors.”

The propaganda machine did, however, dictate that senior military officers
go to the delta to hand out supplies. They must—surely to God—have become
painfully aware of the heartbreak and devastation that was occurring on
their watch.

The donor pledging conference to be held by Asean and the UN in Rangoon on
Sunday is a significant breakthrough, but given the justified concerns
about corruption, donors will rightly want to deliver aid directly, while
the junta, in the absence of any further instruction to do differently
from Than Shwe, will want all aid to go through their channels.

Compounding the pressure on Than Shwe is the expiry of Aung San Suu Kyi’s
five-year detention order on Saturday night. Ironically, but not
serendipitously for Than Shwe, it coincides with the largest gathering of
the international community in Rangoon since the 1950s.

With the international community on his doorstep, foreign warships off the
coastline and Maung Aye lurking in the shadows, retirement must be looking
more and more like an attractive option for Than Shwe.

Ko Ko Maung and Saya San are expatriate Burma watchers.

____________________________________

May 24, Irrawaddy
Don’t hold your breath – Yeni

Ahead of Sunday’s Asean-UN International Pledging Conference in Rangoon,
where Burma’s military rulers will seek US $11 billion in aid to support
the rehabilitation and resettlement process in cyclone-hit areas, top
leader Snr-Gen Than Shwe told UN chief Ban Ki-moon he would allow “all aid
workers” into the country to help cyclone survivors.

This should have been welcome news to all—from the Burmese cyclone victims
who so desperately need whatever assistance they can get, to the relief
workers, local and international donors, and governments around the world
who have waited more than three weeks for a chance to provide it.

However, after so much deceit in the past, observers are generally
cautious about hailing Than Shwe’s latest promise as a breakthrough.

Before anyone can say that the weeks of foot-dragging are at an end, we
will need to see real progress on the ground. And unfettered access to the
worst-hit parts of the Irrawaddy delta must come immediately, not at the
junta’s convenience. There’s too much at stake and not a moment to waste.

Clean drinking water, emergency food rations, and medical and sanitation
assistance are all urgently needed in the disaster area. Even more
importantly, there must be logistical expertise to ensure that all of
these things reach the estimated 75 percent of victims who have thus far
seen little or no aid.

Most fresh water in the affected region is unfit to drink. According to
the Red Cross, many victims are drinking water from stagnant and often
contaminated ponds, which breed disease-bearing mosquitoes. Children and
the elderly are suffering from dysentery, dengue fever and dehydration.

Malnutrition is also a growing concern. Even three weeks after the
cyclone, victims are continuing to rely mainly on private donations of
food, which the authorities are in many cases blocking in their efforts to
ensure that “discipline” remains the top priority.

Many survivors also have inadequate access to shelter. According to a Thai
medical team now treating cyclone survivors n the Irrawaddy delta, many
patients have respiratory diseases because of crowded living conditions
and exposure to rain.

Even with all of these problems far from solved, the junta has announced
that its rescue and relief operations have been completed. Now, it says,
it is ready to begin the next phase—the capital-intensive rebuilding
stage, which will claim the lion’s share of the aid the regime believes it
is entitled to receive from the international community.

Already, the regime has said that the Myanmar Commerce Ministry and the
army-monopolized Union of Myanmar Federation of Chambers of Commerce and
Industry are coordinating ways to resume agricultural work in cyclone-hit
areas. Part of this effort evidently involves evicting cyclone survivors
from monasteries and schools where they are currently taking shelter, and
returning them to their devastated homes to work the fields.

Perhaps the most crucially missing thing from the relief efforts that the
regime has so far undertaken is trust. Recipients of aid know that the
junta gives nothing away for free, and are as wary of their self-described
saviors as they are worried about the many dangers—disease, starvation and
natural disasters—that continue to threaten their existence.

The international community also needs to consider how much it can trust
this regime. So far, the junta has shown that it does not trust foreigners
at all, and responds to calls for cooperation only when it is facing
unrelenting pressure.

Bizarrely, at a time when it should be welcoming outside assistance, the
regime has been conducting a witch hunt for unauthorized aid workers in
the hard-hit Laputta and Bogalay Townships, where owners of guest houses
have been ordered to submit their guest registers to local authorities and
report the arrival of foreigners or persons from organizations that could
be aid-related.

Not only aid workers, but also journalists, have been put on the junta’s
watch list. On Monday, eight Burmese journalists who were trying to cover
the cyclone disaster in Laputta Township were arrested and detained for
one night.

In its recently released report, the Asean Emergency Rapid Assessment Team
also complained that it could not visit the region freely.

So far, no one has any clear idea what Than Shwe’s green light for foreign
aid workers will mean in concrete terms. But it should not be lost on
anyone that this sudden, major concession came just days before the regime
intends to ask the rest of the world for a massive handout to deal with a
crisis that it has so far treated as a minor bump on its road to
“disciplined democracy.”