BurmaNet News, July 2, 2008

[Editor]

July 2, 2008 Issue #3503


INSIDE BURMA
Irrawaddy: Parties to register for election: junta
Irrawaddy: 7,000 Laputta refugees told to return home
Reuters: Burma steps up surveillance as protest dates loom
Mizzima News: 'Warriors' claim responsibility for Rangoon blast
Mizzima News: Censor board clerk demoted for allowing publication of poem
DVB: Damaged monastery forced to turn down students

ON THE BORDER
Bangkok Post: Burma beefs up troop levels
DVB: Flooding in Kachin state kills 5
DVB: Regime troops withdraw from KNLA stronghold

BUSINESS / TRADE
AFP: Cyclone takes toll on building boom in Myanmar capital

HEALTH / AIDS
Xinhua: More cyclone victims in Myanmar found infected with TB

INTERNATIONAL
Newsweek: Refugees from Burma strain U.S.

OPINION / OTHER
AP: Burma's politics roiled, but junta grip firm – Denis D. Gray
FEER: All of Burma is a prison – Min Zin



____________________________________
INSIDE BURMA

July 2, Irrawaddy
Parties to register for election: junta – Wai Moe

Burma’s military junta will make an announcement in the coming months that
all political parties must register in advance of the 2010 election,
sources told The Irrawaddy.

Sources close to ethnic armed groups—which have maintained a ceasefire
with the ruling junta since the 1990s—said that military officials told
ceasefire groups to organize their political parties in preparation for
the junta announcing party registration.

Burmese military officials reportedly also told the ceasefire groups that
several high-ranking military generals would run in the election in 2010.

The Union Solidarity and Development Association (USDA), backed by the
ruling military regime, had reviewed its membership list in preparation
for the forthcoming election after the regime announced that more than 90
percent of voters supported the new constitution, according to USDA
sources in Rangoon.

USDA members had reportedly been told to join a military-backed political
party.

Sources said that when members of the USDA met with military officials,
they were told that the country’s top generals were pleased with the
tactic of using advance voting to control and win the constitutional
referendum in May.

Military officials also told USDA leaders and local authorities to hold
advance voting, in particular for soldiers, civil servants and USDA
members, in the 2010 general election.

“The generals are very happy with the referendum result and advance
voting. They think they can control people with advance voting rather than
in a secret ballot on election day,” a township level leader of the USDA
in Rangoon said.

“When I went to polling station on May 24 to vote, sub-commissioners at
the polling station told me that their records showed that I had already
voted. I asked them who voted for me. They told me that they voted on my
behalf because they thought I would not come to the polling station,” a
businessman in Rangoon said.

The main opposition party, the National League for Democracy, has not
decided whether it will compete in the 2010 election. The party still
regards the 1990 election result as valid and its policy is to call the
People’s Parliamentary Assembly with elected persons from the last
election, said Win Naing, a spokesperson for the NLD.

“The result of the 1990 election has never been honored by the ruling
regime. So how can we consider the outcome of another election under the
same rules?” he added.

____________________________________

July 2, Irrawaddy
7,000 Laputta refugees told to return home – Saw Yan Naing

At least 7,000 cyclone survivors sheltering in three temporary camps in
Laputta town, in the Irrawaddy delta, are under renewed pressure from the
local authorities to return home, according to sources there.

About 10,000 refugees are still living in Laputta’s five refugee camps,
supported by local authorities and nongovernmental organizations.

The 7,000 now urged to return to their home villages have been warned that
unless they leave the camps they can expect no aid next month, said one
local source, Aye Kyu.

Those who agree to go home will be provided with enough rice, oil and
beans to last 10 days and will participate in a draw for the houses now
being built in the devastated villages, Aye Kyu said.

The supplies are insufficient, however, according to Aye Win, a spokesman
for the UN Information Center in Rangoon.

The state-owned daily New Light of Myanmar reported on Tuesday that the
government planned to build 4,000 houses for cyclone victims in the
Irrawaddy delta and Rangoon Division.

About 18 private companies and bankers would be involved in the
construction of the homes, the paper said.

Despite the inducements to take up residence again in their devastated
villages, about 400 cyclone survivors who were forced to go home returned
to Laputta last month and are now living in local monasteries, sources
reported.

Thousands of residents of more than 30 villages in Bogalay Township were
told by the Department of Forestry last month to relocate because they
were said to be living on national park land.

____________________________________

July 2, Reuters
Burma steps up surveillance as protest dates loom – Aung Hla Tun

A small bomb at the offices of a pro-junta group in Burma has prompted the
government to step up its surveillance of Buddhist monasteries and
dissidents ahead of anniversaries that sometimes serve as flashpoints for
dissent.

The explosion at a Union Solidarity and Development Association (USDA)
office in north Rangoon on Tuesday caused only minor damage, official
newspapers said, but prompted the junta to issue a call for people to
watch out for "saboteurs".

"Responsible officials are investigating the incident to expose the
culprits," the Myanma Ahlin said, urging increased public vigilance.

The USDA is a social organization founded by the Burma's ruling generals
in 1993 and now claiming 24 million members—an unlikely figure given that
the entire population is only 57 million.

Increasingly, it is seen as the junta's political party-in-waiting should
it ever permit democratic elections.

USDA heavies, or gangs organized by the USDA, were used to intimidate and
arrest opposition groups in August and September's protests led by
Buddhist monks against soaring fuel costs and declining living standards.

With the looming first anniversary of the protests—the biggest challenge
in nearly 20 years to more than four decades of military rule—the junta's
spies have been at work for any signs of trouble in key Buddhist
monasteries.

One major date is likely to be August 8, the numerically auspicious
08-08-08 and 20th anniversary of an "8-8-88" student uprising crushed by
the army with the loss of an estimated 3,000 lives. "Townships officials
came to the monasteries last week to find out the situation," one Buddhist
monk from eastern Rangoon told Reuters. He did not want to be identified.
"They wanted the monks to report them the arrival of overnight guests," he
said.

August 8 is also the opening day of the Olympic Games in China, the
generals' main commercial and diplomatic backer.

About 3,000 protesters, including hundreds of Buddhist monks, were
arrested in last year's crackdown, in which the United Nations estimates
at least 31 people were killed.

Most of those detained have been released, although Amnesty International
estimates 700 continue to be kept behind bars. Monasteries that took part
in the protests were closed and thousands of monks forced to return to
their towns and villages.

"The monks who were involved are still under surveillance and abbots are
under pressure not to let them back in," one monk said.

____________________________________

July 2, Mizzima News
'Warriors' claim responsibility for Rangoon blast

A Burmese armed student rebel group, Vigorous Burmese Students Warrior
(VBSW), on Tuesday claimed responsibility for the bomb blast on Monday in
a suburban township in Burma's former capital Rangoon.

VBSW in a statement, posted on a Burmese blog in exile, on Tuesday said
they had triggered the bomb blast at the office of the Union Solidarity
and Development Association (USDA) on Monday, July 1.

"As a continuation of VBSW's operation, the attacked the USDA office in
Rangoon's Shwepyithar Township is apart of our unit no. 18's handiwork,"
the Burmese statement posted on http://drlunswe.blogspot.com/, said.

The statement further said, they have been launching an operation against
Burma's military rulers and that it had exploded two bombs on April 20,
targetting vehicles owned by USDA officials, which were parked in front of
the 'ABC' restaurant in downtown Rangoon.

The VBSW members, who claim to be operating inside Burma's business hub
Rangoon, were, however, unreachable for confirmation of the authenticity
of the statement.

On Monday, a small bomb exploded in the office of the USDA, a pro-junta
civil organization, in northern Suburb of Rangoon.

While the existence of the Student Warrior group cannot be proved, the
statement allegedly by them said, they are genuinely opposed to the
military junta's continued rule in Burma and have resolved to carry out
attacks on them.

It, however, said, "In our operation against the junta's political
activities, military and economy, we have vowed not to harm innocent
civilians."

The VBSW had earlier claimed responsibility for several similar bomb
blasts including a deadly blast at the Panorama restaurant in Rangoon's
Pasodan Street in December 2004.

So far, Burma's military junta, has made no official accusation against
any groups regarding the blast, but merely stated that "authorities are
investigating the incident," in its state-run newspaper, New Light of
Myanmar.

But the paper urged the people, "to pay special attention to the saboteurs
who will be active assuming various forms in public places and to expose
them by reporting to officials in time."

____________________________________

July 2, Mizzima News
Censor board clerk demoted for allowing publication of poem – Nem Davies

Close on the heels of sacking the editor of Cherry magazine for publishing
a poem, the Censor Board demoted its own senior clerk from the publishing
license department on June 24, according to sources.

Yin Yin Nwe, Upper Division Clerk (UDC) of the publishing licensing
department, of the Censor Board under the Ministry of Information, was
demoted to Library In-Charge rank. Another staff, censorship examiner May
Suu Hlaing was also reprimanded, a source close to the Censor Board said.

"Yin Yin Nwe was transferred to another department under the Censor Board,
this means demotion. She was demoted to Lower Division Clerk (LDC) from
Upper Division Clerk (UDC). May Suu Hlaing was just reprimanded but not
demoted. As she was a rookie in this department, she was spared from
severe punishment," he said.

According to the rules of the Censor Board, the publishing license must be
surrendered to the department when the license holder dies. The publishing
license of 'Cherry' magazine was transferred illegally to the new holder,
without surrendering it to the concerned department, when the original
license holder died. It is for this reason she was demoted, an editor of a
weekly journal said.

"Only because of this poem, the staff was hauled up. The unauthorized
license transfer is just a reason as it has been earlier. The censor
examiner was also reprimanded for this poem, as she was responsible for
the censorship on poems," he added.

The poem appeared on page 7 of the June issue of 'Cherry' magazine. Under
pressure exerted by the Censor Board, 'Cherry' magazine officials had to
ask its Editor-in-Charge  Htay Aung to resign from his post.

____________________________________

July 2, Democratic Voice of Burma
Damaged monastery forced to turn down students – Naw Say Phaw

The Sasana Rakhita monastery school for orphans in Rangoon's South
Okkalapa township has been unable to accept new students due to a lack of
funding to repair damage caused by the cyclone in May.

The monastery’s abbot, Sayadaw U Zawtika, said about 60 zinc sheets that
were pulled off the roof of the monastery's classroom and living quarters
have not yet been replaced due to a shortage of funding at the monastery.

U Zawtika said the school is home to about 150 orphans, around 50 of them
girls, who are now lacking shelter.

About 30 students studying 5th grade to 10th grade attend the school, and
about 60 others from kindergarten to 4th grade.

U Zawtika said there was no one to provide donations to help the monastery
with repairs.

"We don't get a lot of donations here – sometime we get a donation of a
dozen or two books or a small amount of money like 500 or 1000 kyat," U
Zawtika said.

U Zawtika said the school had recently accepted 10 new students but had
had to turn down another 20 orphans from the Irrawaddy delta as there was
no room for them in the damaged building.

"We cannot accept a lot of students now – we have to repair the building
first. We had to tell them to go somewhere else," he said.

"If we can get the building repaired we will be able to accept more
students, but for now, we just have no room for them."


____________________________________
ON THE BORDER

July 2, Bangkok Post
Burma beefs up troop levels – Subin Kheunkaew

Burma has reinforced its troops in the disputed area of Doi Lang mountain,
which an army source said might result from its ''misunderstanding'' over
a Thai military exercise in the border area. Since last week, more Burmese
soldiers with heavy weapons have been deployed to the Doi Lang area,
opposite Chiang Mai's Mae Ai district. A 32-sq km area of land has sparked
a row between Burma and Thailand, which have their own versions of border
demarcation maps.

A source at the Third Army, which oversees northern Thailand, insisted
Thai soldiers had only carried out a routine drill near the border without
any move to touch on the controversial issue.

''It's probably a misunderstanding by Burma. But so far the situation
remains normal,'' said the officer who asked not to be named.

Thai villagers who live near the area, viewed the Burmese move as unusual.
More food supplies have been sent to the Burmese army base at Doi Lang
while troops beefed up security, replacing bamboo fences with barbed wire.

The villagers became aware of the stepped-up security after two Thais were
arrested by Burmese soldiers in late-June after they allegedly farmed on a
Burmese area. Burmese authorities later sent them back to Thailand after
negotiations with Thai military officers of the Pa Muang task force.

Pa Muang task force's deputy commander Col Pichet Sukpongpisit did not
believe the recent Burmese military build-up would lead to a serious
problem

____________________________________

July 2, Democratic Voice of Burma
Flooding in Kachin state kills 5

Five people were killed when a creek in Kachin state’s Laizar region
controlled by the Kachin Independence Organisation burst its banks last
Saturday, according to locals.

A local resident, speaking on condition of anonymity, told DVB that the
Laizar creek in northern Kachin state, which is used as a border marker
between China and Burma, overflowed on 28 June and caused floods in the
area.

He said locals are now living in fear of natural disasters after the area
was hit by four earthquakes in April and May and now by floods.

Locals in Moe Nyin, Moe Kaung and Pha-kant townships in Kachin state said
there had been floods in their township areas as well.

____________________________________

July 2, Democratic Voice of Burma
Regime troops withdraw from KNLA stronghold – Naw Say Phaw

Troops from the Burmese military and Democratic Karen Buddhist Army
withdrew from a Karen National Liberation Army stronghold yesterday, a day
after attacking the area.

The KNLA battalion 201's stronghold is located 25 miles south of the Thai
town of Mae Sot on the border with Burma and across the river from a
village called Padi.

KNU information department coordinator major Saw Hla Ngwe said the
fighting lasted until yesterday and some heavy artillery shells fired by
the Burmese army landed on Thai soil, causing havoc among Thai villagers,
who fled their homes in fear.

"The SPDC troops fired artillery rounds upon the Wal Lay Khee stronghold
on Monday morning until 11am and about three shells landed on the Thai
village," Saw Hla Ngwe said.

"About 200 Thai villagers had to flee their homes and took shelter in a
monastery and a school building."

He said the clash ended yesterday evening when the regime's army and DKBA
troops withdrew.

The number of casualties on the two sides is still unknown.

Saw Hla Ngwe said the government's offensive was probably in retaliation
for the loss of regime troops killed in nine clashes with the KNLA in
June.

"Also, they can collect tax money from local farmers if they take control
of the area as well as getting themselves an open route to go in and out
of Thailand," he said.

____________________________________
BUSINESS / TRADE

July 2, Agence France Presse
Cyclone takes toll on building boom in Myanmar capital

Two months after deadly Cyclone Nargis struck Myanmar, the military
regime's new capital is suffering the economic ripple effects, as
construction crews leave to rebuild devastated towns.

The cyclone ripped across the Irrawaddy Delta, 270 miles (435 kilometres)
south of the capital Naypyidaw, wiping away entire villages and seriously
damaging important trading towns, including Myanmar's main city Yangon.

More than 138,000 people are dead or missing, while homes, roads, bridges
and schools have been destroyed.

Before the storm, Naypyidaw was filled with construction crews as the
military embarked on ambitious building projects for their new capital,
which they call "the abode of kings."

Now, many of the workers have left to take new jobs in the Irrawaddy -- a
swampy region a world away from the scrubby highlands where they had been
working.

"The construction workers from Naypyidaw sites will work at tower
foundations for electricity projects, as the Irrawaddy Delta needs
electricity first," said Moe Moe, a 32-year-old manager for a construction
firm based in Yangon.

"Later, the workers will also work on renovating schools and building
projects," she told AFP. "Meanwhile, some construction is also continuing
in Naypyidaw."

Naypyidaw was built in secret, known only through rumours until the
military regime abruptly ordered the government to move here at the crack
of dawn on November 7, 2005, a moment deemed auspicious by the generals'
top astrologers.

At the time, construction crews were everywhere. The city had no schools,
no clinics, few phone lines -- not even a grocery store.

In the years since, neatly organised hotels, apartment blocks, and
government offices have sprung up.

A new six-lane highway to link the country's main cities of Yangon and
Mandalay is more than half finished. It will slash the travelling time to
Naypyidaw, which lies roughly between the two.

Electricity here runs 24 hours a day -- an unthinkable luxury elsewhere in
Myanmar -- and the generals have even opened a sprawling new zoo, although
tourists are not allowed to visit the city.

Construction workers have been the backbone of the rapidly evolving city.
Now that many of them are in the delta, residents say business is sagging
and the remaining building sites sit idle.

"My sales have dropped about 50 percent because so many construction sites
here moved to the delta after Cyclone Nargis. Many construction workers
have moved there too, following their company's jobs," Maung Maung, 24, a
shopkeeper in Naypyidaw's Myoma market told AFP.

"I feel sorry for those who lost everything. But we are also dealing with
the consequences," he said.

A hotel manager said many businessmen had also left the capital for the
delta, where the government is encouraging them to make donations to
cyclone-hit communities.

"Many construction sites moved there, and also many businessmen went to
the delta to help people with donations," he said.

"People here felt very sorry about the storm. Some also lost their
relatives in the delta," he added.

One government official told AFP on condition of anonymity that the regime
expects the rebuilding to take at least two years.

"The leadership is trying to budget money for rehabilitation projects in
the delta. We will have to work at least two years for the delta to get
back to a normal, pre-Nargis situation," the official said.

Poor villagers are still arriving in Naypyidaw in hopes of finding work,
but some say they have been discouraged that so many jobs have moved
south.

"I came here 20 days ago with my three children to find a job. I have to
work from dawn to evening. It's very difficult to find a job in my
village," said 53-year-old Khin Win.

She and two of her children each earn 1,500 kyats (1.30 dollars) a day
clearing duckweed from an artificial pond created along a Naypyidaw road.
She had hoped to find better-paid work.

"I have decided to stay here at least three months. We will try to find a
better job here to get more money. Otherwise, we will go back to my
village. New jobs are also difficult to find here," she said.

____________________________________
HEALTH / AIDS

July 2, Xinhua
More cyclone victims in Myanmar found infected with TB

More cyclone victims in Myanmar have been found infected with tuberculosis
(TB) in the aftermath of the storm disaster that stroke the country early
last May, the local weekly 7-Day News reported Wednesday quoting the TB
Program of the Medical Association.

A total of 21,834 storm victims have been found carrying TB virus two
months after the disaster following field trips to the storm-hit areas by
over 500 experts with the medical association, the report said.

Diseases such as TB, malaria, dengue fever and diarrehoea easily hit
people especially when they live in populated relief camps.

TB generally occurred in Myanmar with 100,000 people found infected
annually, according to medical experts.

TB is among the three major communicable diseases of national concern in
Myanmar. The other two are HIV/AIDS and malaria.

The health authorities have called for efforts to combat the three diseases.

Meanwhile, international medical teams have joined in healthcare services
for cyclone victims soon after the disaster.

Various domestic healthcare associations, international non-governmental
organizations, private clinics and Myanmar traditional medicine
practitioners have also made field trips to storm-hit areas and carried
out treatment for survivors.

Meanwhile, state media reported earlier no outbreak of other contagious
and epidemic diseases in the storm-hit areas, saying that a total of
206,039 storm patients had received medical treatment during a month after
the cyclone storm hit the country.
Deadly tropical cyclone Nargis, which occurred over the Bay of Bengal, hit
five divisions and states -- Ayeyawaddy, Yangon, Bago,Mon and Kayin on May
2 and 3, of which Ayeyawaddy and Yangon inflicted the heaviest casualties
and massive infrastructural damage. The storm has killed 84,537 people,
leaving 53,836 missing and 19,359 injured according to the latest official
death toll.

____________________________________
INTERNATIONAL

July 2, Newsweek
Refugees from Burma strain U.S. – Ken Kusmer

The modest apartment where Van Tin Lian Zathang, his wife, Biak, and their
two daughters live sits in a tidy, sprawling complex of brick town houses
that other refugees from Myanmar also call home.

Zathang gets a lift to his job at a pharmaceutical warehouse because he
doesn't speak enough English to pass a driver's license exam. His ethnic
Chin family picks through donated clothes in the basement of a Catholic
church.

"It is not easy," Zathang said through an interpreter. "Although we get
some support, it's not enough."

The number of Myanmar refugees settling in the U.S. has grown
exponentially this year, threatening to overwhelm local aid groups and
government services.

The deluge has inundated local health departments who screen the thousands
of arrivals for the growing problem of tuberculosis and other ailments. It
also has flooded schools that must overcome language barriers, and public
and private aid agencies that house, feed and clothe the newcomers.

Resettlement agency Exodus Refugee has doubled its Indianapolis staff to
eight people over the past 11 months but still can't keep up, job
specialist Zach Tennant said recently while handing out envelopes with $25
spending money to each adult refugee arriving at Indianapolis
International Airport.

"We're still way behind. It's a hurricane," he said.

The Rev. Thlaawr Bawihrin of Zophei Christian Church says his Chin
congregation — one of four clustered on the south side of Indianapolis —
has doubled to more than 200 members in five months.

Since many refugees speak little English and lack driver's licenses,
Bawihrin — who has been in the U.S. since 1996 — shuttles them to jobs,
doctors' appointments, welfare offices and other errands.

"I love my people. I love my community, so I must be available whenever
they need me," Bawihrin said earlier this month.

The Zathangs' living room is furnished with second-hand items. On a wall,
there are four single-spaced, typed pages of Chin contacts they can call
for help. Their daughters, ages 8 and 6, attend Perry Township schools,
where the number of students who need English lessons has risen by 150
this school year to more than 1,000, program coordinator Marsha Manning
said. The district has hired five Chin to ease the transition and help
teachers.

Two hours northeast of Indianapolis along Interstate 69, Fort Wayne is
home to some 3,000 expatriate Myanmar, one of the largest communities in
the U.S. The arrival of 70 refugees in one week, and 559 over the first
nine months of this year, prompted the head of the local Catholic
Charities agency to turn to Congress for help.

"We are receiving complaints on many levels within the community," Debbie
Schmidt wrote Rep. Mark Souder, R-Ind., on Sept. 13. "... Health has
become a serious issue in this community because a large percentage of the
arriving refugees are testing positive for tuberculosis."

Souder, in a letter to Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, warned of a
backlash from host communities toward the legal refugees at a time when
the nation already is hotly debating illegal immigration.

The State Department admitted 13,896 Myanmar refugees during the federal
fiscal year that ended Sept. 30, a more than sevenfold increase from 1,612
in 2006. Nearly 5,000 arrived in September alone, sometimes with as little
as 10 days notice.

State Department spokesman Curtis Cooper said Myanmar expatriates
resettling in the U.S. spiked this year at the request of the U.N. High
Commissioner for Refugees.

The Department has waived provisions of the Patriot Act that barred 9,300
ethnic Karen from entering the U.S. because of their association with
Myanmar rebels. It also lifted material support restrictions for certain
ethnic groups such as the Karen and Chin.

Also, this is the first full year for a refugee processing center in
Thailand run by the International Rescue Committee under contract with the
State Department, said Christine Petrie, the committee's U.S. resettlement
director.

The refugees were not among those in Myanmar who joined Buddhist monks in
pro-democracy demonstrations last month, prompting a crackdown by the
ruling junta. Those arriving in the U.S., many of whom are Christians,
fled their southeast Asian homeland years ago and resettled in camps along
the Thai border and elsewhere.

Besides Indiana, the pressure also is felt in St. Paul, Minn., and Utica,
N.Y., both home to large Karen populations.

The Rev. William Englund, pastor of St. Paul's First Baptist Church, said
he has been welcoming six to eight families into his congregation each
month. Their welcome baskets used to include rice cookers, but the parish
no longer can afford them.

"We're not able to keep up with all of them," Englund said.

In Utica, the Mohawk Valley Resource Center for Refugees has received 300
people over the past 11 weeks, including 109 one week, before the end of
the federal fiscal year brought a respite. Director Peter Vogelaar said
the biggest challenge is finding them safe, clean homes and jobs. He's
finding work for 30 to 40 refugees per month.

"Refugees are survivors and they are incredibly resilient," Vogelaar said.

____________________________________
OPINION / OTHER

July 2, Associated Press
Burma's politics roiled, but junta grip firm – Denis D. Gray

The cyclone that devastated Burma's heartland has also roiled a political
landscape dominated by the military for more than four decades.

Buddhist monks are regrouping after the battering they took nine months
ago, civil society groups are emerging and foreign aid workers—often
agents of political change in the wake of humanitarian crises—are present
in unprecedented numbers.

The junta's grip on power remains absolute. But anger against the regime
has probably never run so high.

"Perhaps incremental change will emerge from engagement on humanitarian
problems," said Joel Charny, vice president of US-based Refugees
International who visited Burma just before the cyclone struck.

People were already incensed by the brutal suppression last September of
anti-government demonstrators, including the country's revered,
saffron-robed Buddhist monks.

Then came Cyclone Nargis, exposing the junta as inept and heartless,
initially blocking international aid efforts and even now still hampering
them.

"The people are blaming the government. They are responsible for many
deaths. They don't care about right or wrong and they let people die just
to hold onto power," said Aung Myoe, a 32-year-old driver in a comment
typical of the mood in Rangoon.

"In the 'Saffron Revolution' they lost their Buddhist legitimacy; with the
cyclone they lost whatever concept of efficacy they had with the public,"
said David Steinberg, a Burma expert at Georgetown.

Steinberg said the junta constantly trumpets achievements in modernizing
the isolated and impoverished Southeast Asian nation, also known as
Myanmar.

Analysts say these passions and emerging trends may in the longer term
loosen the junta's grip on power. But for now it's business as usual:
dissidents are arrested, a brutal campaign against ethnic minorities rages
on and the military strides toward elections guaranteed to perpetuate its
control.

But the 500,000-strong Buddhist monkhood, the only viable national
institution after the army, is regaining strength and cohesion by assuming
a leading role in helping cyclone survivors.

Their work is seconded by quietly burgeoning civil society groups, which
Steinberg said could foster pluralism and democracy in the future. These
groups include professional guilds, including those of actors and singers,
charity organizations and loose associations of like-minded citizens.

So could the influx of foreign aid workers and agencies in what may be the
most intense interaction Burma has experienced with the outside world
since gaining independence from Great Britain in 1948.

The operative word is "incremental." Analysts don't foresee meaningful
political changes in the short run, discounting a dramatic turn of events,
such as social upheaval in face of cyclone-induced rice shortages, or a
split within the military.

The regime will be hard-pressed to provide enough rice to keep its 400,000
troops and their families loyal and ensure that shortages, which could
last several years, don't trigger major popular unrest as they have in the
past, said Donald Seekins, a Burma watcher at Japan's Meio University.

Meanwhile, the junta marches forward along its so-called "road map to
democracy." Elections are scheduled in 2010, based on a
referendum-approved Constitution which guarantees the military 25 percent
of parliamentary seats and power to run the country in event of a national
emergency.

The cyclone response, the referendum and the extension of pro-democracy
leader Aung San Suu Kyi's detention for a sixth year all sparked
international outcry, but the absence of UN or other foreign action
reassured the junta it needn't fear outside intervention.

"The people of Myanmar would have been happy if the United States or
France invaded," said Ye Htun, a 30-year-old English teacher. "In Myanmar,
the government is too strong and people are too scared. We can't do it
alone."

____________________________________

July 2, Far Eastern Economic Report
All of Burma is a prison – Min Zin

Much has been written about Cyclone Nargis and the failure of Burma’s
military junta to respond adequately. But what of the hundreds of
political prisoners held in Burma, many in areas devastated by the storm?
When Cyclone Nargis ravaged Burma in the late night hours of May 2, it did
not spare political prisoners. The notorious Insein prison, where hundreds
of political prisoners (including my brother) are locked up, was one of
the hardest hit places in Rangoon.

Why is my brother in Insein? On Feb. 15, the military raided the offices
of the Myanmar Nation and took my brother, the weekly journal’s editor in
chief, to jail. His crime? Possession of a U.N. report on the military’s
brutal crackdown on last September’s demonstrations by monks and democracy
activists—known around the world as the “Saffron Revolution.”

My brother’s name is Thet Zin, and he is one of hundreds of Burmese
citizens who struggle to tell the truth about what is happening in their
country—whether through traditional forms of journalism or through the
Internet—under threat of arrest or worse by the military regime. Along
with my brother, his office manager, Sein Win Maung, was also arrested.

When Cyclone Nargis hit, it uprooted trees; rain flooded the prison cells
and the power was cut. A fire broke out in one of the prison wards,
filling the prison with smoke. The flames triggered a riot. The guards
started shooting.

Suffering from asthma, my brother was choking with smoke. His former
office manager and fellow inmate, Sein Win Maung, passed out. Some
sympathetic prison guards rushed to the cells and managed to push aside
fallen trees and move the political prisoners to a prison hospital.

“Many political prisoners in the cells could have died from smoke if the
rescue was delayed one more hour,” said Bo Kyi, a former political
prisoner who now works with Thailand-based Assistant Association for
Political Prisoners (AAPP-Burma).

It is still hard to know how many died or were injured during the havoc.
But according to AAPP at least 36 prisoners at Insein were shot to death
when the cylcone hit. Some prisoners, like many of their countrymen, lost
their entire family to the cyclone. Thiha Thet Zin, a political prisoner
in Insein, was informed that eight out of nine of his family
members—including his son, his parents, his grandmother, and all his
siblings—were swept away by the storm. His wife was the only survivor.

This is hell on earth. Still, Insein prison and the injustices that take
place there are but a microcosm of what’s taking place throughout Burma.
To paraphrase Shakespeare, all of Burma is a prison.

Cyclone Nargis claimed more than 138,000 lives and left millions homeless.
Still, the junta denied millions of Burmese people the basic right to food
by blocking foreign aid workers and supplies in the weeks immediately
following the storm.

Indeed, the misuse of international aid is by now well documented. Aid
supplies ended up in military warehouses, local markets and the homes of
police officers and members of pro-government civilian groups instead of
reaching starving and disease-stricken survivors. Soldiers even looted
jewelries from dead bodies.

Moreover, the junta forced survivors to take part in the reconstruction of
military sites and conscripted male orphans into the army, which before
the storm was already notorious for its tens of thousands of child
soldiers. All of these reports have been confirmed by sources both inside
and outside Burma.

Clearly, the junta’s inability and unwillingness to care for the Burmese
people is tantamount to “crimes against humanity.” Cyclone Nargis has
exposed the failures of the regime and brought forth a defining moment in
Burmese history with inevitable, if yet unpredictable, political
consequences.

“Things will not return to status quo ante,” says Priscilla Clapp, a U.S.
diplomat who served as Chief of Mission in Burma from 1999-2002.
Post-cyclone Burmese politics will be a humanitarian politics—pressuring
and arguing about mobilizing aid and its delivery. Political goals will be
set aside at least for the medium-term, and more consideration will be
given to humanitarian works.

The junta continues to ensure that the cyclone will not have an effect on
its “Road Map to discipline flourishing democracy.” But there are
pressures within the junta itself that could eventually lead to change.
“We have heard that there are considerable tensions within the military,”
said David Steinberg, a Burma expert from Georgetown University. “But I
don’t know whether the tension is strong enough to split the military and
at what level it exists, and whether it is at a high enough level to
threaten present leadership.”

The Association of Southeast Asian Nations has approved millions in aid
for Burma and now has hundreds of aid workers from member countries in
storm-stricken areas. This could serve to expose to the outside world the
prison state that is Burma. Still, despite a visit last month by U.N.
Secretary-General Ban Ki Moon and the demands of dozens of heads of state,
Nobel Peace Prize winner and leader of Burma’s opposition Aung San Suu Kyi
remains under house arrest—long after the May 24 deadline for her release.

What’s most important here is to assure the aid money is not used by the
junta to retrench and tighten its grip on the Burmese people.  Foreign aid
runs the risk of being a “jackpot for the military junta, who will be the
sole beneficiary of the international donation in the name of the cyclone
victims” says Aung Din, a former political prisoner and director of the
U.S. Campaign for Burma.

The outside world must demand more transparency and accountability when it
comes to aid money and how it is distributed. So long as the world allows
itself to be co-opted and outfoxed by the junta, political
prisoners—including Aung San Suu Kyi and those in cyclone-ravaged Insein
prison—will continue to languish in Burma’s gulags, and the Burmese people
will remain shackled.

Min Zin is a Burmese journalist in exile.