BurmaNet News, October 29, 2008

[Editor]

October 29, 2008, Issue # 3587


INSIDE BURMA
Irrawaddy: Relief as cyclone bypasses Burma
Narinjara News: Sittwe University student detained
IMNA: New round of capricious taxation in southern Mon State
Kaladan News: ILO team conducts survey in Nayapara refugee camp
Mizzima News: 88 generation student leaders sentenced to six months
imprisonment

ON THE BORDER
IRIN: Bleak prospects for the Rohingya
Narinjara News: Nasaka searches for monks on Western Border

REGIONAL
Irrawaddy: Burma, China consolidating military relations
Mizzima News: Time to focus on long-term post-Nargis rehabilitation

OPINION / OTHER
Oped News: Will civil strife recur in Burma? – Zin Linn
Irrawaddy: The faltering ASEAN way – Michael Vatikiotis
Irrawaddy: Burma, North Korea follow different foreign policy paths – Wai Moe

INTERVIEW
DVB: Lessons from Zimbabwe – Nay Too

PRESS RELEASE
UNESCAP: Meeting on post-Nargis recovery and livelihood opportunities in
Myanmar



____________________________________
INSIDE BURMA

October 29, Irrawaddy
Relief as cyclone bypasses Burma

People living in Burma’s Irrawaddy delta spent a tense weekend last week,
as Cyclone Rashmi brought heavy rains and strong winds to a region that is
still recovering from the effects of Cyclone Nargis, which killed at least
85,000 people less than six months ago.

According to the Bangladesh government’s Comprehensive Disaster Management
Program, the cyclone made landfall in Bangladesh early Monday morning with
wind speeds of up to 80 km/hour. The cyclone, which formed over the Indian
Ocean, left at least two people dead and another 11 missing.

Observers said that the loss of life and property was minimal, thanks to
the successful preparedness efforts of the Bangladeshi authorities and
local communities.

The Burmese government, which was heavily criticized for its failure to
alert people to the threat of Cyclone Nargis before it struck on the night
of May 2-3, also issued public warnings over the weekend through its
department of meteorology and hydrology.

But government efforts to make a show of readiness did little to reassure
local people, who feared the worst.

“We were terrified,” said one delta resident, describing his reaction to
the powerful gales and menacing clouds that swept the region. “We couldn’t
take our eyes off of the sky.”

This brush with a repeat of the disaster that left an estimated 140,000
people dead or missing in May came as Burma’s deputy foreign minister,
Kyaw Thu, was in Bangkok to attend a United Nations-backed meeting on the
country’s efforts to recover from the effects of Cyclone Nargis.

The two-day “Regional High-level Expert Group Meeting on Post-Nargis
Recovery and Livelihood Opportunities,” organized by the UN Economic and
Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP) and the Association of
Southeast Asian Nations (Asean), was convened on Monday to bring together
disaster-response experts from Indonesia, Bangladesh, Pakistan and other
countries in the region.

“Asia has always been a focal hub for world knowledge,” said Kyaw Thu, who
is also the chairman of the Tripartite Core Group (TCG), which coordinates
the relief effort in the Irrawaddy delta. The group consists of
representatives of the UN, Asean and the Burmese government.

Kyaw Thu added that he was “engrossed by [the participants’] rich
experience and compelling expertise, especially in managing and dealing
with the recent natural disasters that have happened in our region.”

Observers say that Cyclone Nargis had a significant impact on the thinking
of some Burmese government officials, who now realize that there is a need
for collaboration with international relief experts to support a
sustainable recovery in the cyclone-hit areas.

“We have again found ourselves at a crucial crossroads,” said Kyaw Thu,
who is the son of Dr Maung Maung, a respected scholar who served as
Burma’s president for a month during the uprising of August-September
1988.

____________________________________

October 29, Narinjara News
Sittwe University student detained

A first-year student from Sittwe University was detained by police on 8
October on accusations he was connected with a student group in exile,
said a close associate of the student from Sittwe.

The student was identified as Ko Ni Min Aung, son of Htoo Kyaw, from
Danyawaddy Ward in Sittwe, the capital of Arakan State.

He was arrested while working at his father's battery shop in Danyawaddy
Ward on 8 October.

After his arrest, police brought him to police station number one in
Sittwe for interrogation. He is still in the police lock-up and has yet to
be produced before a court.

According to student sources, at least 11 students from Sittwe University
who are close associates of Ni Min Aung, are currently hiding from the
police as they have also been accused by authorities of having ties to a
student group on the Thailand-Burma border.

Local residents in Sittwe believe that the arrest of Ko Ni Min Aung is
related to last year's student protests against the increased school bus
fares. Ko Ni Min Aung was involved as a leader of those protests.

Authorities in Sittwe watched his activities closely after the protests.
As soon as the found any evidence of unlawful acts, they arrested him
immediately to punish him for his involvement in the protests last year,
said his friend.

____________________________________

October 29, Independent Mon News Agency
New round of capricious taxation in southern Mon State

Infantry Battalion (IB) No. 31 is forcing residents of southern Mon State
to pay a new 10,000 kyat tax. The tax, allegedly to pay for new batteries
for army communications equipment, began being levied last week in Yin-ye
village, Khawza Sub-Township, Ye Township.

According to a villager from Yin-ye, officer Tun Tun Naing from IB No. 31
ordered village headman Nai Kyaw Hein to collect the tax. Every rubber
plantation must pay 10,000 kyat, regardless of its acreage or the number
of workers it employs. There are thirty plantations in the Yin-ye area.

Troops in the area are notorious for violating the human rights of
residents. According to a group of twelve displaced people who recently
arrived to Sangkhlaburi, Thailand, villages in the area are becoming
seriously depopulated as people flee. Only 70 of 150 households remain in
Amae village, a former resident told IMNA. Amae village is in neighboring
Yebyu Township of Tenasserim Division.

The displaced people, interviewed on October 28th, told IMNA that soldiers
assault residents, heavily restrict their movements, levy a variety of
punitive taxes and conscript them as forced laborers and porters, as well
as make them stand sentry and go on patrols.

“We normally pay about 2,000 kyat every month,” said a resident from Magyi
village, Khawza Sub-township. “But when the soldiers come, we have to give
more money to our headman to pay for feeding them while they stay awhile
in the village.” The source added that some villagers could afford to pay
the taxes, especially because they are not on a consistent or predictable
schedule, and have to borrow from relatives.

In Kabya Wa village, also in Khawza, an IMNA source said that the army
typically collects about 50,000 kyat per fisherman and farmer every year.
Rubber plantation owners have to pay 100,000 kyat annually.

IMNA sources also reported that the army makes them work as forced
laborers, which is both miserable in its own right and a direct trade-off
with income-generating work. One villager reported being forced to carry
officers’ equipment when they moved between villages. The source said that
his leg and foot suffered permanent damage from beatings he received when
he became too tired to continue carrying the heavy load.

Residents of Kabya Wa are also banned from selling their farms or
plantations, said a former resident, who added that troops frequently
steal from farms and gardens.

“If you get all the news from Khawza Township, you will become too tired
to keep writing,” a woman from Khawza town told IMNA. “There is not enough
room in your notebook. On one day the beat someone at one house. The next
day they confiscate property from someone at another house. Everyday,
something happens.”

____________________________________

October 29, Kaladan News
ILO team conducts survey in Nayapara refugee camp

An International Labour Organization (ILO) team with the cooperation of
UNHCR of Bangladesh is carrying out a survey in refugee camps regarding
the skills and working conditions of refugees since October 23, a school
teacher from a camp said.

Hairul Islam is leading the five-member team and they are asking refugees
about their work in the camp and their mode of survival, he added.

The team is also asking detailed for filling up a form while they are
visiting one family after another.

"The survey team asked me about my life and they also visited my shed and
asked how I survive with my family and what I do for my livelihood. They
also asked whether I have a TV or a radio in my room and how many grams of
gold or silver I own," a refugee told Kaladan News, on condition of
anonymity.

A religious teacher from the camp told Kaladan News that the team asked
how many skilled workers lived in the camp and what they did and where
they went for work. "We have some skilled workers like tailors,
carpenters, electricians and unskilled workers like daily labourers who
work in Teknaf and land ports, as well as farmers and rickshaw pullers,"
he added.

"The team recorded how many animals (cows and goats) and chicken we have
and what we are cultivating in our sheds, "Amina from Nayapara camp said.

The survey team will visit two refugee camps (Nayapara and Kutupalong
camps) within three weeks.

"Maybe the survey team is collecting information about refugees in the
camp for their labour rights and for their survival in the camp and also
for the right of freedom in the camp," a community leader from the camp
said.

____________________________________

October 29, Mizzima News
88 generation student leaders sentenced to six months imprisonment

Nine of Burma's detained student leaders, popularly known as the 88
generation students, have been sentenced to six months of imprisonment
today, on charges that they had defied court orders.

The detained students - Min Ko Naing, Ko Ko Gyi, Hla Myo Naung, Htay Kywe,
Mya Aye, Nyan Linn, Phyone Cho, Aung Thu and Aung Naing – were sentenced
on charges made by the prosecutor that they had defied court orders.

The student leaders, known after the year in which they had led
pro-democracy protests in 1988, were also charged under various other
counts.

____________________________________
ON THE BORDER

October 29, Irin News
Bleak prospects for the Rohingya

Thousands of Rohingya, Muslim residents from Myanmar's northern Rakhine
State, continue to languish in southern Bangladesh almost two decades
after fleeing Myanmar.

"Our lives are miserable," said Mostafa Kamal outside his makeshift hut,
not far from the coastal city of Cox's Bazar.

His family fled across the Naaf River, a natural boundary between the two
countries, in 1992, and their prospects for returning look bleak.
According to the laws of Myanmar, they are stateless.

"If the government changes inside Myanmar, I will return, but I'm not
hopeful," the unemployed 22-year-old said.

There are more than 200,000 Rohingya living in Bangladesh today.

Many were persecuted and denied the right to religious freedom, property,
as well as to marry or travel without permission, according to Amnesty
International, an international watchdog.

Over more than five decades, there have been three major influxes of
Rohingya into Bangladesh.

In the last campaign launched against them in July 1991, approximately
one-third of this ethnic, linguistic and religious minority fled en masse,
resulting in the establishment of 21 refugee camps in Bangladesh.

But their reception in Bangladesh, an impoverished nation struggling to
provide for its own burgeoning population, has not always been welcome.

"They don't want us here. They have never wanted us here," said Mohammad
Ismail, who has lived much of his life in Kutupalong refugee camp, one of
two remaining government-administered camps about 40km south of Cox's
Bazar.

Tensions between local residents and the refugees often erupt over issues
of jobs or local resources such as wood and fish, the 21-year-old said.

About 28,000 documented refugees remain, including 11,000 at Kutupalong
and another 17,000 at a larger camp at Nayapara, farther south.

And while conditions inside the two camps remain grim, life for the
estimated 200,000 outside the camps can be even worse.

Only documented refugees in the camps are provided regular food and
non-food rations by the UN, as well as access to rudimentary health and
informal primary school education.

Undocumented Rohingya

Since 1992, the UN Refugee Agency (UNHCR) has not been allowed to register
newly arriving Rohingya living outside the refugee camps in Cox's Bazaar
District.

Many were part of the 1991 influx who had returned to Myanmar, only to
once again flee to Bangladesh, at which point they were no longer
documented.

In 2007, however, UNHCR successfully negotiated with the government to
relocate on humanitarian grounds about 9,000 unregistered Rohingya living
in squalid and dangerous conditions along the banks of a tidal river in
the border town of Teknaf to a safer site in Leda, about 3km from
Nayapara.

The move was facilitated by Islamic Relief in mid-2008 after the agency
constructed the new site with the support of the European Commission's
Humanitarian Aid Office (ECHO) and the UN Children's Fund (UNICEF).

Most undocumented Rohingya, however, continue to live in surrounding
villages and towns, or with the local population.

A lasting solution

Ideally, both the government of Bangladesh and UNHCR consider repatriation
the most durable solution; it is also the long-term goal of most refugees.

"These refugees can only go back when conditions inside Myanmar are
conducive and when they themselves feel it is safe to do so," Stephan
Sinclair-Loutit, head of UNHCR's sub-office in Cox's Bazar, told IRIN.

A nominal third-country resettlement programme established in 2005,
typically to Canada, was slowly expanding, but remained an option for only
a limited few.

In the interim, UNHCR and its partners are working towards improving
education and vocational training opportunities within the camps, with the
hope of empowering camp residents - making them less dependent on outside
assistance, allowing them greater mobility and the opportunity to work
outside the camps legally.

Although the authorities generally turn a blind eye to those being
employed outside, it was time to make that official, Sinclair-Loutit said.

"We would like them to be able to leave the camps freely. Freedom of
movement and freedom of work not just in fact, but in rule," he said.

____________________________________

October 29, Narinjara News
Nasaka searches for monks on Western Border

Nasaka authorities have been searching for two young monks who recently
traveled to Maungdaw from Sittwe, but they have yet to be located, said an
abbot from Maungdaw.
The abbot said, "Yesterday a group of plainclothes Nasaka came to my
monastery searching for them. They asked me about two monks from Sittwe
arriving at the monastery. They told me the monks' names."

The names they gave for the two monks are U Zawana and U Thumana, and they
reportedly came to Maungdaw from Sittwe, the capital of Arakan State, on
Sunday.

"I heard the Nasaka force has been searching for them not only at my
monastery but also at others, but they have not been able to find them,"
the abbot said.

The two monks came to Maungdaw from Buthidaung by bus on 26 October, and
registered their names at the three-mile entrance gate along the
Buthidaung-Maungdaw motor road.

The authorities at the three-mile gate allowed them to continue traveling
to Maungdaw, but Nasaka officials later came searching for them.

In Arakan State, monks are being closely watched by authorities as part of
a government plan out of fear that the monks might organize a protest
against the government, the abbot added. #

____________________________________
REGIONAL

October 29, Irrawaddy
Burma, China consolidating military relations – Min Lwin

Signs are evident that Burma and China are stepping up military
cooperation after Burma’s top three generals met with Gen Zhang Li, the
vice chief-of-staff of China’s People's Liberation Army (PLA), on Monday
in Naypyidaw.

Snr-Gen Than Shwe, who frequently snubs visiting UN envoys, reportedly
offered a warm welcome to the visiting Chinese delegation. Vice Snr-Gen
Maung Aye and Gen Thura Shwe Mann also attended the meeting. Thura Shwe
Mann later held separate talks with the Chinese general, according to
China’s state-run Xinhua News Agency on Monday.

Xinhua did not provide details of the meeting, but said that Zhang Li had
discussions with Thura Shwe Mann, the chief of general staff of the
Burmese army, navy and air force. The Chinese news agency also commented
on the spirit of “friendly cooperation” between the armed forces of the
two countries.

Htay Aung, a Burmese researcher in Thailand, said that Gen Zhang Li’s trip
to Burma was a means of strengthening cooperation between the two armed
forces.

China has been the major supplier of military hardware to Burma since the
regime crushed a pro-democracy uprising in 1988. China has provided
fighter jet planes, naval ships, tanks, military vehicles and ammunition
to the Burmese junta. It has been reported that China has delivered some
US $2 billion worth of military equipment to Burma since the early 1990s.

Speaking to The Irrawaddy, Aung Kyaw Zaw, a Burmese analyst living at the
China-Burma border, said he believed that the generals’ meeting focused on
the military industry.

“The Chinese armed forces have helped and supported the Burmese with heavy
military hardware for years,” he said, adding that 90 percent of Burmese
military transportation is supplied by China.

New York-based Human Rights Watch pointed out in its October 2007 report
that India, China, Russia, and other nations have supplied Burma with
weapons that the Burmese army uses to commit human rights abuses against
civilians and to bolster its ability to maintain power.

The international rights group said that China has supplied Burma with
advanced helicopter gunships, arms production technology, support
equipment and small arms, including mortars, landmines, and assault
rifles, as well as assistance in setting up an indigenous small-arms
production capability. It said China had also supplied a vast array of
advanced military hardware to Burma, including fighter planes, naval
vessels and tanks, and other infantry support weapons.

In August, Burma’s Chief of Defense Industry Lt-Gen Tin Aye visited China.
State-run Xinhua reported that he met with Gen Liang Guanglie, a member of
the central military commission and chief of general staff of the PLA, in
an effort to increase cooperation in political, economic, cultural and
military spheres.

According to Xinhua, the Chinese defense ministry was ready to work with
Burma to further expand bilateral cooperation, so as to help the two
nations’ defense and to safeguard regional peace and stability.

According to a report leaked to The Irrawaddy, in July, at a confidential
meeting with senior staffers, Home Affairs minister Maj-Gen Maung Oo said
that Burma was not pro-China. However, Maung Oo stated that Burma was
China’s “road to the sea of southern states” because allies of the US,
such as Taiwan, South Korea, Japan and the countries of the Association of
Southeast Asian Nations were encircling China.

In 1989, Than Shwe, then deputy commander in chief of the armed forces,
led the first high-level visit to China to purchase military hardware.

____________________________________

October 29, Mizzima News
Time to focus on long-term post-Nargis rehabilitation – Solomon

The United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific
(ESCAP) said disaster risk reduction and disaster management should be a
key component in the process of recovery for victims of Cyclone Nargis in
Burma.

Under-Secretary-General for ESCAP Ms. Noeleen Heyzer, in a press statement
released on Tuesday following a two-day meeting of expert groups in
Bangkok on the ongoing recovery from Cyclone Nargis, said effective early
warning mechanisms are a part of any sound disaster management approach.

But she emphasized that early action is required to turn early warning
into real disaster preparedness.

The meeting, attended by the UN, ASEAN, Burmese government and topical
experts, agreed on prioritizing a move from relief efforts to recovery and
long-term economic and social development, including the mobilization of
greater technical and financial support.

The meeting is the first high-level gathering on the process of recovery
from Cyclone Nargis and drew together representatives from Aceh,
Bangladesh, Pakistan and other countries which have dealt with the effects
of recent natural disasters.

Participants agreed that the information shared during the meeting would
feed into the Post-Nargis Recovery and Preparedness Plan (PONREPP), the
ongoing Tripartite Core Group (TCG) Periodic Review and the ASEAN-UN
Summit to be held in Thailand in mid-December.

However, a consortium of nineteen Burmese civilian organizations, which
launched a report on October 16, said the Post Nargis Joint Assessment
(PONJA) by the TCG, a group formed by the UN, ASEAN and Burmese
government, has largely neglected the human rights violations committed by
the Burmese military junta in the process of helping cyclone victims.

The report, entitled 'Post-Nargis Analysis: The Other Side of the Story,'
highlights that PONJA had failed to include severe rights abuses endured
by victims in the aftermath of the cyclone, especially in terms of
inadequate and unequal aid distribution by authorities.

Ko Shwe, a Karen environmentalist who visited the Irrawaddy delta after
the cyclone struck, said the Burmese Army had been obstructing the flow of
aid and deprived the victims of their right to an equal distribution of
aid and humanitarian assistance.

Following the deadly landfall of Cyclone Nargis on Burma's Irrawaddy and
Rangoon Divisions in early May, the military government initially blocked
the flow of aid and aid workers to regions struck by the storm.

But following a visit by UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon to Burma in
mid-May, Burma agreed to be part of a Tripartite Core Group that would
coordinate the process of recovery and the flow of aid. TCG then conducted
a field assessment and came out with its Post Nargis Joint Assessment.

But the Burmese civilian organizations said PONJA largely fails to include
all aspects of the situation in the cyclone affected regions and totally
eliminates the severe human rights violations committed by the Burmese
junta.

Meanwhile, the UN humanitarian coordinator said victims in the delta
continue to lack clean and safe drinking water and are short of funding
for agricultural and livestock projects.

Dan Baker, in an email message to Mizzima earlier this month, said, "Needs
are still great and increased and committed financial support is necessary
in order to continue to address the humanitarian needs."

Baker related, "Tens of thousands of families are living in basic shelter
conditions," adding that the agriculture sector also requires a lot of
funding.

On the ground, villagers in Thingangyi of Laputta Township in the
Irrawaddy delta said food aid to them was cut-off about two months ago,
leaving them to struggle for their daily food and causing them to be
unable to rebuild their lives.

"We have seen some food in the storerooms, I don't understand why they are
not distributing it to us," said a villager, who saw food being stored at
warehouses manned by international aid agencies.

____________________________________
OPINION / OTHER

October 29, Oped News
Will civil strife recur in Burma? – Zin Linn

Burma is on the brink of fresh civil strife as many of the young
generation have voiced dissatisfaction with nonviolence. The most
intolerant citizens have called for a U.S. military invasion or an armed
struggle to overthrow the deep-rooted stratocracy in Burma, due to the
junta’s insistence on building a military-privileged country.

In addition, many people have a negative attitude toward China for
encouraging the junta’s brutal oppression of its own people.

Lieutenant-General Thiha Thura Tin Aung Myint Oo, first secretary of the
State Peace and Development Council, has declared that the country will
hold a general election in 2010, according to the junta’s mouthpiece
newspaper, New Light of Myanmar. Tin Aung Myint Oo said the country had
made noteworthy improvements in recent months due to the implementation of
a seven-step roadmap to democracy. He made these statements Oct. 24 at a
ceremony to mark the 63rd anniversary of the United Nations.

On the same day, the junta demonstrated its blood-and-iron policy. Six
opposition leaders from Mandalay were sentenced to prison terms ranging
from 11 to 13 years by a military court, on charges of threatening the
nation’s “tranquility” and stirring up hatred. All six, including one
woman, were executives of the National League for Democracy and were
arrested in September last year in a nationwide crackdown on those who
participated in the Saffron Revolution protests.

Tin Aung Myint Oo also said cooperation with the United Nations is the
cornerstone of the nation's foreign policy. He said the country had
consistently cooperated with the United Nations, citing as evidence the
visits of several senior U.N. officials including that of U.N.
Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon in May this year, following Cyclone Nargis.

However, the regime has turned a deaf ear to successive resolutions
adopted by the U.N. General Assembly calling for a return to democracy in
Burma through a tripartite dialogue between the junta led by Senior
General Than Shwe, democratic forces led by Aung San Suu Kyi, and
representatives of ethnic nationalities. It is clear that the junta has no
plan to heed the U.N. call or to release political prisoners, a
precondition to the tripartite dialogue.

Meanwhile, on Oct. 25, Asian and European leaders urged the ruling junta
in Myanmar (Burma) to release detained politicians and lift restrictions
on political parties. This call was made at the Asia-Europe Meeting in
Beijing attended by leaders from more than 40 countries.

Asian and European leaders, in a joint statement following a two-day
summit in Beijing, encouraged the junta to engage all stakeholders in an
inclusive political process in order to achieve national reconciliation
and economic and social development. They called for the lifting of
restrictions placed on political parties and the early release of those
under detention.

European Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso said the Beijing
statement showed progress on the issue. But military rulers have shown no
interest in heeding international calls for political reforms and the
protection of human rights. Opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi has been
under house arrest for 13 years. Various human rights groups and activist
groups have been calling on foreign government leaders, and the public, to
demand she be freed along with all political prisoners in Burma.

The U.N. special rapporteur for human rights in Myanmar, Tomas Ojea
Quintana, said last week he would ask the military regime to implement
four key measures before the 2010 elections, to pave the way for
democracy. These include a revision of domestic laws to ensure compliance
with international human rights standards, the gradual release of all
prisoners of conscience, and human rights training for the military.

Burma’s ruling junta has been in the limelight again this year for its
merciless handling of the Cyclone Nargis tragedy. The cyclone hit Burma on
May 2-3, affecting some 2.4 million people in the Irrawaddy delta and in
Rangoon district. Almost 140,000 people were killed or remain missing,
according to the official figures.

Despite the natural disaster, believed the worst in the country's recent
history, the regime insisted on holding a national referendum in May to
approve a new Constitution designed to strengthen the military's leading
role in politics, even under an elected government.

The referendum, held without international monitoring, was blamed for the
junta's disinclination to let in emergency aid and relief workers during
the first catastrophic weeks after the storm, which left some 2.3 million
people in desperate need of supplies, water, shelter and medical relief.

A new report into the responses and impacts of Cyclone Nargis in Burma was
released on Oct. 22 by the National Coalition Government of the Union of
Burma. The report found that losses incurred by the cyclone accounted for
21 percent of the country's GDP for the previous fiscal year.

Inflation is currently around 40 percent. The disaster also caused a loss
of an estimated 197 million working days. Severe rice shortfalls are
expected in 2009, as the affected regions provided much of the country's
supply. This will also impact exports to neighboring countries. Forty-two
percent of households in the affected regions lost all their food stocks
and 45 percent had only enough to last up to seven days soon after the
cyclone hit.

In the Irrawaddy and Rangoon districts, 75 percent of health facilities
and 91 percent of public education facilities were destroyed. More than
one-third of those in these areas have some form of lung or stomach
ailment. Some 23 percent of households in cyclone-hit regions reported
psychological problems. A disproportionately high female mortality rate
means many infants cannot get proper care and feeding. Those surviving are
highly susceptible to being forced into the sex trade due to employment
pressures.

These indicators show that people have been suffering all kinds of social
breakdown that may pave the way toward a rebellion. Besides, the Burmese
people are upset with neighboring China, which protects the inhumane junta
not only to exploit the natural resources in Burma but also to be in
command of the geopolitical situation in Southeast Asia.

Living in poverty for over four decades, the majority of the Burmese
people have a bitter hatred toward the military dictatorship and the
military elite. They also have an anti-China outlook due to China’s use of
its veto at the United Nations Security Council in favor of the rogue
regime in Burma.

In brief, before these dissatisfactions and bitter hatred blow up, it is
time for China, India and ASEAN to pressure the Burmese junta to comply
with the United Nations’ consecutive decisions. The world body should
encourage regional players, including Japan, to push for a meaningful
dialogue between Aung San Suu Kyi and the incumbent military rulers as
soon as possible.

____________________________________

October 29, Irrawaddy
The faltering ASEAN way – Michael Vatikiotis

It is ironic that just as the much-heralded Asean Charter received its
final approval through ratification by Indonesia, two Asean member states
faced off across a disputed patch of land and started shooting at each
other. It was an inauspicious start to what the Charter's preamble refers
to as 'a region of lasting peace, security and stability...'

The Thai-Cambodian border is not the only fault line that threatens peace
in South-east Asia. In recent weeks, Malaysia has rattled Indonesian
nerves with the threatened exploitation of disputed waters off the island
of Borneo. The reaction in Jakarta? Instead of requesting the good offices
of the Asean Secretary-General to mediate as envisaged in the Charter,
security agencies hurriedly planned a military exercise to practice
confrontation with the Malaysian navy.

Southeast Asian nations have lived in relative peace and harmony for the
past half-century. But they have been reluctant up till now to formalize
the mechanism by which peace is maintained. Asean member states have
displayed an allergy to formal security cooperation. They have preferred
instead to use informal channels and personal connections to resolve
disputes.

This was a fine arrangement when Southeast Asia was a more clubbable
place, its leaders more or less on the same political plane, sharing the
same demons (communist insurgency and uppity peasantry). But today,
Southeast Asia has become a patchwork of rather different political
landscapes.

In Indonesia, a vibrant democracy has injected nationalist stridency to
the country's diplomacy. In Thailand, bitter domestic political conflict
is doing the same as one side seeks to undermine the other by questioning
its nationalist credentials. In the Philippines, the legislature holds the
threat of impeachment over the President's head and makes it hard for the
country's chief executive to follow a consistent foreign policy agenda.

Pluralism, therefore, is making it hard for Asean officials to knit
together the much-vaunted regional consensus. Now more than ever, Asean
needs to build a framework for dispute resolution that will allow the
collective security of the region to trump domestic politics and
nationalist breast-beating. The Asean Charter lays a good foundation for
doing so.

But despite the Charter's ratification, there are few signs this is
happening. The other day when Thai and Cambodian troops started trading
fire, Asean officials were at a loss to know how to intervene. Asean
Secretary-General Surin Pitsuwan asked regional leaders like Indonesia's
President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono to appeal for restraint, which he did.
Foreign ministers from Indonesia and Malaysia fell over themselves to
offer mediation, but no invitation came from either of the parties. The
current Asean chairman, Thailand, is a party to the dispute.

Eventually, calm was restored when it emerged that the Thai and Cambodian
leaders would meet on the fringes of an Asia-Europe meeting in Beijing,
which they did. That is hardly an endorsement of Asean's ability to
resolve disputes.

At the heart of the problem is the reluctance of Asean member states to
yield an inch of sovereignty in the interests of collective security. The
past few months have seen a number of attempts to gently push the
boundaries of acceptable intervention, but it has not been easy.

Witness how easily domestic politics derailed a Malaysian-brokered deal
between Manila and the Moro Islamic Liberation Front in Mindanao. Often,
when regional mediation does get under way, jealous or competitive
neighbors seek to sabotage or hamper these efforts. Not only has Bangkok
been reluctant to embrace Jakarta's good offices as a mediator in the
southern Thailand conflict, but also Malaysia appears to be unhappy to see
Jakarta involved in a dispute along its border with Thailand.

Ever since the high-profile resolution of the long-running conflict in
Aceh on the back of the devastating December 2004 tsunami, many in the
region saw the so-called 'Aceh model' as a path to peacemaking easily
replicated elsewhere, which is not necessarily the case.

Without a more formal mechanism to channel and regulate conflict
management, with the implicit role of third-party intervention, Asean's
efforts to forge a region of peace and security will fall on stony ground.
There is something of a built-in contradiction between bedrock principles
in the Asean Charter: on the one hand, it stresses respect for sovereignty
and territorial integrity; and on the other, a 'shared commitment and
collective responsibility' for peace and security. Put another way: How
can Asean ensure the peaceful resolution of disputes when the Charter
insists on non-interference in the internal affairs of member states?

This contradiction needs resolving. When neighbours cannot settle quarrels
between themselves, outsiders should be called on to do so. The irony of
not allowing more space for regional mediation is that it leaves the door
open for larger powers—like China in the case of the current
Thai-Cambodian dispute—to act as the mediator.

The writer is Asia Regional Director for the Geneva-based Centre for
Humanitarian Dialogue and this article recently appeared on Jakarta Post.

____________________________________

October 29, Irrawaddy
Burma, North Korea follow different foreign policy paths – Wai Moe

Burmese Foreign Minister Nyan Win met his North Korean counterpart, Pak Ui
Chun, in Pyongyang on Monday—a diplomatic event that disguised the
different foreign policy directions taken recently by the two countries.

Nyan Win’s visit to the North Korean capital is the second by a Burmese
junta official within the past month. It follows a visit by Burma’s
Minister of Sports, Brig-Gen Thura Aye Myint.

Diplomatic sources say that although the two countries have developed
close military ties since the 1990s, Nyan Win’s visit is more likely to
have been a diplomatic one, following the 2008 Asia-Europe Meeting (ASEM)
summit in Beijing.

Other high ranking military officials to visit North Korea this year
include the mayor of Rangoon, Brig-Gen Aung Thein Lin (he visited in
September), Lt-Gen Tin Aye, chief of the armed forces Office of Defense
Industries (August) and Lt-Gen Myint Hlaing, chief of the Tatmadaw’s air
defense (July).

Burma and North Korea resumed diplomatic relations in April 2007 after the
Burmese government cut ties in 1983 when North Korean agents attempted to
assassinate the South Korean prime minister and his delegation in Rangoon.

Despite the break in diplomatic ties, military cooperation between the two
countries intensified in the 1990s.

“In late 1990, North Korea sold Burma 20 million rounds of 7.62 mm rifle
ammunition,” said Andrew Selth, an expert on Burma’s military, in a
research paper.

Security analysts say that the Burmese junta also sought strategic weapons
such as submarines and ballistic missiles from North Korea. Pyongyang
reportedly delivered nuclear technology to Burma and helped with strategic
tunnel building technology in the construction of Naypyidaw. Some reports
suggested North Korean technicians are in Burma.

The increasing cooperation between Burma and North Korea drew expressions
of concern from the US. In testimony before the US House International
Relations Committee in March 2004, Deputy Assistant Secretary of State
Matthew P. Daley said: “Of particular concern, we also have reason to
believe that the DPRK [Democratic People’s Republic of Korea] has offered
surface-to-surface missiles [to Burma].”

In April this year, Japan’s NHK news agency reported that North Korea had
sold multiple rocket launchers to the Burmese junta.

However, in his research paper, Burma and Nuclear Proliferation: Policies
and Perceptions, Andrew Selth offered the reassurance: “It is highly
unlikely that Burma currently has any intention of acquiring nuclear
weapons, from North Korea and anywhere else.”

Recently, the two countries have followed different foreign policy
courses, and this month North Korea scored a success when the US removed
it from Washington’s list of state sponsors of terrorism. The ruling,
announced on October 11, followed Pyongyang’s agreement to resume
dismantling its nuclear program and to allow international inspectors to
monitor this work.

North Korea had shared the Washington blacklist with Cuba, Iran, Sudan and
Syria. It also found itself described by US Secretary of State Condoleezza
Rice in 2005 as an “outpost of tyranny,” along with Burma, Belarus, Cuba,
Iran and Zimbabwe.

While North Korea has been winning points recently with Washington, Burma
continues to be castigated by the US for its failure to institute
political reform and release its political prisoners.

The foreign policy focus of the US and the European Union differs between
North Korea and Burma. Democracy and human rights issues are paramount in
US and EU policy on Burma, North Korea’s nuclear ambitions dictate their
approach to North Korea.

Both Burma and North Korea concentrate their foreign policies on
guaranteeing the survival of their respective regimes. While the North
Korea regime has won legitimacy by playing the nuclear weapons card, the
Burmese junta has been emphasizing the seven-step roadmap towards its
version of democracy.

The language employed by each side is similar, however.

North Korea’s military said in a statement on Tuesday: "The puppet
authorities had better bear in mind that the advanced pre-emptive strike
of our own style will reduce everything
It will turn out to be a just war—
to build an independent reunified state on it."

The tone of the North Korean statement is similar to the slogans employed
by the Burmese regime—such as “Oppose foreign nations interfering in
internal affairs of the State.”

____________________________________
INTERVIEW

October 29, Democratic Voice of Burma
Lessons from Zimbabwe – Nay Too

Zimbabwean opposition MP Trudy Stevenson said in an interview with DVB
yesterday that Burmese and Zimbabwean activists could benefit from closer
links in their struggles for democracy.

Drawing on her experience as an opposition representative in Zimbabwe,
Stevenson said that strategic planning and the flexibility to adapt to new
circumstances were key factors in the struggle for democracy.

DVB: How has the democracy movement in Zimbabwe gained such support?

TS: “From your perception obviously we have more support than you. In my
view, Burma has a great deal more prominence in the world media in
particular. But how it was achieved was that we strategised as members of
the opposition and as politicians.

“We strategised, we communicated with the Western countries, with Europe,
America and so on, on ways to put pressure on the Zimbabwe so-called
government and the idea of targeted sanctions was adopted because ordinary
blanket sanctions hurt the ordinary people. But if you can have targeted
sanctions so it’s simply the members of the government that you are
attacking, the regime who are targeted, and the sanctions don’t affect the
ordinary people then that does put pressure on that government to come to
the table, to come to the party as we say.

“So it was strategic thinking and a strategy plan. And that’s what you
have to do in politics and in a struggle. You need to strategise and if
one strategy doesn’t work or no longer works – and in my view the targeted
sanctions have run their course and it’s now time to change tack – but you
have to operate rather in a military frame of mind. So you’re strategic
and then you constantly review and monitor and when it no longer works
then you adopt another tactic.”

DVB: Do you think the Burmese democracy movement should move on from
sanctions and find another approach?

TS: “If sanctions have not worked or are no longer working or are causing
too many problems, maybe it’s time to look for another tactic. One has to
think as a military strategist.”

DVB: Do you have any other comments?

TS: “I can only say that we don’t have many links at the moment. Zimbabwe,
we are an African country – even though I have a white skin I am an
African – and you are an Asian country. So we are far apart and we don’t
have many links. But if we can establish links, I think it will help both
countries and we can find much in common. “We sympathise with your
struggle as well I can assure you, and we wish you all the best. And what
you must not do is give up; you must keep going because democracy is
everyone’s human right and the Burmese people will not develop until you
have freedom and democracy. That is what will allow you to develop your
country.” Trudy Stevenson is a Zimbabwean member of parliament and was one
of the founding members of the MDC opposition party.

She currently serves as the MDC national secretary for policy and research.

____________________________________
PRESS RELEASE

October 29, United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the
Pacific
Meeting on post-Nargis recovery and livelihood opportunities in Myanmar

Six months after Cyclone Nargis struck Myanmar, key partners in the
country’s recovery process gathered in Bangkok to assess how to best
strengthen their joint efforts to support inclusive and sustainable
recovery there.

The two-day Regional High-level Expert Group Meeting on Post-Nargis
recovery and Livelihood Opportunities in Myanmar was organized by the
United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific
(ESCAP) and the Association of South-East Asian Nations (ASEAN), with the
support of the Government of the Union of Myanmar. It brought together
high-ranking Myanmar Government officials and representatives of ASEAN,
ESCAP and other UN and international partners, as well as experts with
experience in dealing with such recent disasters in the region as the 2004
Asian Tsunami, the 2005 Pakistan earthquake, and the 2007 Cyclone Sidr in
Bangladesh. The high-level commitment to this dialogue was reflected in
the opening statements by ESCAP’s Executive Secretary,
Under-Secretary-General Noeleen Heyzer, ASEAN’s Secretary-General, Dr.
Surin Pitsuwan, and the Myanmar Deputy Minister for Foreign Affairs, U
Kyaw Thu.

“I believe this is an opportunity for those who are involved in the
post-Nargis recovery efforts to learn from the experience, although
painfully gained, of those who have been on a similar path in order to put
together a comprehensive and effective early-, medium- and long-term
strategy,” said Myanmar’s Deputy Minister U Kyaw Thu, who is also the
Chairman of the Tripartite Core Group (TCG), formed by the UN, ASEAN and
the Myanmar Government for the purpose of coordinating relief efforts in
the wake of the cyclone.

“I hope that with ESCAP, and with experts here from Pakistan, Indonesia,
Bangladesh and other various international agencies, UN and non-UN, we can
together enhance the capacity of the region, to add on to the lessons that
we have learnt and translate the lessons into practical procedures,” said
Dr. Pitsuwan, in his keynote address, adding, “if we are not prepared, we
will be in deeper trouble the next time around.”

Under-Secretary-General Heyzer, in noting the toll that Cyclone Nargis had
taken on Myanmar, indicated that the expert group meeting represented a
turning point in the partnership of the UN and ASEAN with the Myanmar
Government. “This experts’ group meeting should be seen as a stepping
stone to move beyond discussing Nargis-related recovery strategies to a
wider discussion on the future development direction for Myanmar as a
whole,” she said.

Ms. Heyzer highlighted that the meeting was timely, and hoped that its
outcomes would feed into the Post-Nargis Recovery and Preparedness Plan
(PONREPP), the ongoing TCG Periodic Review, and the ASEAN-UN Summit to be
held in Thailand in mid-December. ESCAP, as the UN system’s regional
liaison for the meeting, is working with the Government of Thailand – the
current chair of ASEAN – to finalize the Summit agenda in the coming
weeks.

The expert group meeting followed visits in May and June by Ms. Heyzer to
Myanmar, during which Government representatives and the UN Country Team
welcomed the idea of ESCAP, as part of the advisory group to the ASEAN
Humanitarian Task Force and the regional development arm of the United
Nations, convening a series of regional expert group meetings and policy
dialogues on issues of recovery and reconstruction in post-Nargis Myanmar.

This first meeting provided a regional-level platform to learn from the
experiences of regional and international policy experts so that the best
practices emerging from recent disasters in the Asia-Pacific region could
inform the medium- and long-term post-Nargis recovery strategies,
particularly on issues of disaster risk reduction, sustainable settlement
policies, livelihood recovery strategies, and restoring economic and
social infrastructure. The meeting also provided a space for Nargis
recovery partners to develop a consensus on priorities and strategies for
effectively moving from relief efforts to recovery and longer-term
economic and social development, including for mobilizing greater
technical and financial support.

Speaking at the meeting’s session on settlement plans and country
experiences, the Deputy for Donor and International Relations at the
Rehabilitation and Reconstruction Agency for Aceh and Nias, Mr. Heru
Prasetyo, shared critical lessons from the Aceh tsunami reconstruction
effort, stressing that “there is a need for continuous coordination of
funding, programmes and resources, as well as ongoing monitoring,
accountability and public communication.”

Taking into account the lessons learnt – and shared at the meeting – by
the representatives from Aceh, Bangladesh, Pakistan and other countries
which have dealt with the effects of previous natural disasters, the
meeting’s participants agreed that it was particularly important to focus
on a number of principles to guide the implementation of recovery
activities. These included, amongst others, the need for all recovery
efforts to aim to “build back better” and more safely with a
community-based approach in order to reduce future disaster risks; and the
need for disaster risk reduction to be an essential pillar of a recovery
programme so that it becomes an integral part of a holistic
multi-disciplinary approach to disaster management.

Noting the valuable assessments and lessons learned presented regarding
recovery mechanisms and programmes implemented in response to the
disasters that afflicted Aceh, Bangladesh and Pakistan, Ms. Heyzer said
that this experience of the Asia-Pacific region would undoubtedly
contribute to the formulation of recovery strategies for Myanmar and other
future natural disasters. While an effective early warning mechanism is
one critical part of any sound disaster management approach, she
emphasized that early action was also needed in order to turn early
warning into real disaster preparedness.

Referring to the interest expressed by Myanmar representatives in field
visits to engage in further consultations with experts in the region,
which ESCAP stood ready to support, Ms. Heyzer indicated that ESCAP would
also address ways to better capture and institutionalize these experiences
and lessons learned as part of a knowledge-based system that can be
quickly accessed, and which could facilitate the mobilization of expert
teams to provide better assistance.

Ms. Heyzer, in response to participants’ positive feedback on the value of
this regional dialogue session and the spirit of partnership fostered,
said that ESCAP was committed to continue to host such dialogues in
partnership, and that the next would be held with donors so as to
encourage increased assistance to fill critical funding gaps.

In his closing remarks, Myanmar’s Deputy Minister U Kyaw Thu highlighted
that “we have again found ourselves at crucial crossroads” nearly six
months after Cyclone Nargis hit the Ayeyarwady delta, and that the reason
for this important regional meeting was “to concentrate our knowledge and
experience to outline a set of commitments and actions to boost early
recovery efforts and bridge the gap between reliance and self-sufficiency
for the affected populations of the Cyclone Nargis.”

“Asia has always been a focal hub for world knowledge,” the Deputy
Minister continued, adding that he was “engrossed by [the participants’]
rich experience and compelling expertise, especially in managing and
dealing with the recent natural disasters that have happened in our
region.”

“I am grateful for your enthusiasm and total commitment in supporting the
people in the Delta to recover from their worst nightmare and offer them
hope,” he said, and expressed his gratitude to ESCAP and ASEAN for their
cooperation and organization of the two-day meeting. “I believe the
meeting’s objectives have been successfully met – and even go beyond
expectations.”