BurmaNet News, November 19, 2008

[Editor]

November 19, 2008, Issue #3602


INSIDE BURMA
AFP: China to build new oil, gas pipeline across Myanmar
Irrawaddy: Three activists jailed as crackdown continues
IMNA: Tavoy residents lacking IDs registered for upcoming election
DVB: Funeral charity forced to close down offices

ON THE BORDER
Kaladan News: Burmese junta continues troops build up along border
Narinjara News: Three Bangladesh tribal leaders killed near Burma border

BUSINESS / TRADE
Irrawaddy: Global financial crisis hits Burmese markets
Mizzima: Ivanhoe likely to resume mining in December

ASEAN
Bernama (Malaysia): Activists want ASEAN leaders to focus on abuses in
Myanmar

REGIONAL
Narinjara: Burmese warships remain at Sittwe port
Irrawaddy: Singapore economy forces Burmese home
Xinhua: China-Myanmar diplomatic consultation held in Kunming

OPINION / OTHER
South China Morning Post (Hong Kong): Trade partners can force junta's
hand - Sein Win
Asia Times: Bangladesh and Myanmar in fuel spat - Andrew Symon

INTERVIEW
DVB: Win Tin dismisses junta’s scare tactics


____________________________________
INSIDE BURMA

November 19, Agence France Presse
China to build new oil, gas pipeline across Myanmar

China flagged Wednesday it would build a pipeline into Myanmar in a
project that would give it easier energy access but also potentially raise
concerns about its links with the nation's ruling junta.

Work on the oil and gas line will begin in southwest China's Yunnan
province in the first half of 2009, the state-run China Daily reported,
indicating a project that has been in the planning stages for years may
finally kick off.

Once it is completed, at least part of the nation's crucial energy
supplies will be able to avoid the long, cumbersome and potentially
insecure route via the Malacca Strait.

"From a geopolitical point of view, having alternative routes for energy
supplies into China is attractive," said Jason Feer, a Singapore-based
analyst with Argus Media, an energy market research firm.

"The Strait of Malacca is a very busy waterway. It's a quite narrow
waterway. There's always been concerns that it could be disrupted because
of terrorism or piracy."

Around 80 percent of China's oil imports, from areas such as the Middle
East and Africa, is currently transported through the strait, earlier
Chinese media reports said.

The pipeline is one of a series of large energy and infrastructure
projects to be undertaken in southwest China's Yunnan province, the paper
said, citing Mi Dongsheng, head of the provincial economic planning
agency.

The China-Myanmar pipeline had already been discussed by Yunnan officials
at least five years ago but was put on the back burner.

The reason it may now have been revived could be China's drive to boost
its own economy to withstand the fall-out of the global financial crisis.

For Myanmar's ruling junta, there will be economic benefits from a project
of these dimensions, but the real value for the isolated regime could be
symbolic, according to observers.

"The political benefits obviously would be that participating in a
high-profile project with the backing of the Chinese government, I guess,
reduces isolation," said Feer.

China has been criticised for doing little to improve the rights situation
in Myanmar, despite its status as one of the nation's closest allies. The
pipeline could increase the pressure on China.

"It's an example I guess of the Chinese companies being willing to ...
engage a wider range of countries than some Western governments are. I
imagine this will lead to some criticism," Feer said.

China has come under similar criticism for signing energy deals with other
pariah regimes, such as the government in Sudan which has been accused of
genocide.

Investment in the Myanmar pipeline project will be 2.5 billion dollars,
with China National Petroleum Corp, the country's top oil producer,
holding a 50.9-percent stake and managing the project, the China Daily
said.

Myanmar Oil and Gas Enterprise will hold the remaining stake, according to
the report.

However given the large size of the investment, China may not ultimately
go ahead with the project, according to Victor Shum, a Singapore-based
analyst with international energy consultants Purvin and Gertz.

"The issue is whether the investment cost is worth it compared to the
chances of a disruption in the Strait of Malacca, and we haven't really
had any major disruption through the Strait of Malacca for a long time,"
he said.

"The question is why do that while you can receive the Middle East oil
through current transportation means? You can argue from the point of view
of supply security that it provides an alternative. But it's a big
investment."

China's demand for oil has expanded rapidly in recently years to fuel its
double-digit economic growth.

The country imported nearly 200 million tonnes of oil last year, up more
than 10 percent from 2006, the China Daily said.

____________________________________

November 19, Irrawaddy
Three activists jailed as crackdown continues - Min Lwin

Three political activists were sentenced to long terms of imprisonment on
Wednesday by a court in Rangoon’s Sanchaung Township in a continuing
crackdown by the regime on dissidents.

Dee Nyein Lin, a leading member of the All Burma Federation of Student
Unions, was sentenced to six years and six months imprisonment on charges
relating to his involvement in anti-government demonstrations, family
members reported.

Kyaw Zwa was sentenced to two consecutive terms of five years and six
years imprisonment, while Kyaw San received a four-year sentence.

Dee Nyein Lin’s father, Zaw Zaw Min, a member of the 88 Generation
Students group, was sentenced to 65 years imprisonment on November 11 by a
court in Rangoon’s Insein Prison, along with several other members of the
group.

Dee Nyein Lin’s grandfather, veteran journalist Saw Win, a member of the
opposition National League for Democracy, died in prison in 1998, seven
years into a 10-year sentence.

In the current crackdown, about 80 political activists, students,
journalists, a poet and a blogger have been sentenced to prison terms of
up to 65 years imprisonment on charges relating to involvement in the
August-September 2007 demonstrations and infringements of laws on illegal
assembly, resisting officials on duty, disturbing public order and
regulations governing Internet use.

____________________________________

November 19, Independent Mon News Agency
Tavoy residents lacking IDs registered for upcoming election

The Department of Immigration and National Registration (INR) is issuing
temporary identification (ID) cards to residents of about 46 villages in
Tavoy District, Tenessarim Division. The cards permit residents without
other forms of ID to vote in the upcoming election, scheduled for 2010.

The registration push began on November 15th and will run until the 15th
of December. “Staff from the Department of Immigration and National
Registration in Tavoy came to our village to register IDs for us. That
department went to every village to register villagers,” said a man from
Alae Shakhan village in Kalein Aung Sub Township.

According to an officer from the INR, under the Ministry of Immigration
and Population, they are giving IDs to villagers who do not have ID and to
people who received temporary IDs before the May 10th referendum on
Burma’s draft constitution. Villagers with the temporary IDs must pay
1,500 kyat for the new IDs, said the officer, while those without any form
of ID and villagers working in Thailand must pay 20,000 kyat.

According to source close to the INR, 46 numbers of villages are to be
visited by INR officers over the next month. A source close to the INR
estimated that between one and seven hundred residents will be registered
in each village, depending on the local population. The source close to
the INR also said that Ye Township in southern Mon State, Kalein Aung Sub
Township and other townships in Tenasserim Division would see similar
registration pushes.

Villagers without IDs will not be able to participate in the upcoming
election, which will be Burma’s first in over two decades. Temporary IDs
were also issued before the military government conducted a referendum on
a new national constitution in May 2008. Though the ID cards enabled
residents to vote, they did not serve as proof of citizenship.

____________________________________

November 18, Democratic Voice of Burma
Funeral charity forced to close down offices – Nan Kham Kaew

The Free Funeral Service Society has been ordered to move out of its
current offices in Rangoon and in Saku township, Magwe division, by local
authorities.

Kyaw Thu, an academy award-winning actor and vice president of the FFSS,
said the organisation had been ordered to move out of its main office and
free clinic which are currently located in Rangoon's Thingangyun township.

The order came from the government's Department of Human Settlement and
Housing Development which claimed the land where the office was built was
preserved for Sasana society, Kyaw Thu said.

"The monastery which owned the land wanted to expend their building as
they have more monks staying there now," said Kyaw Thu.

"We were told we are not allowed to set up office buildings like ours in
this location."

The FFSS building will now be relocated to Ba Htoo road in the northern
part of Dagon township.

"The land preserved for our new building is actually a plastic garbage
dump which goes deep into the ground - about seven or eight feet," Kyaw
Thu said.

"We are going to have to set up pole foundations first in order to start
the construction and that is going to be costly," he said.

"We would need some donations to do that as the current budget we have is
only meant to be used for free funeral services."

Kyaw Thu added that more families in Rangoon had been seeking the group's
assistance in funeral services due to financial hardship.

"Now we are giving assistance for about 50 funeral services a day," he said.

Meanwhile, locals in Magwe division's Minbu province said the FFSS branch
in Saku township founded by local youths less than a year ago had been
disbanded due to pressure from the provincial Peace and Development
Council.

"Saku's FFSS project was founded by local youths less than a year ago and
they were given permission by the authorities in the beginning," said one
Minbu resident.

"But recently the authorities began to pressure them to stop their
activities so they had to disband."

The local resident said the FFSS in Saku had started out with only a cart
to carry the bodies to funerals but it has now managed to buy a hearse
with the donations it received as its work became better known among
locals.

"It was really useful for poor people who couldn't afford the funeral
expenses for their loved ones and now locals are really disappointed to
see it go," he resident said.

____________________________________
ON THE BORDER

November 19, Kaladan News
Burmese junta continues troops build up along border

The Burmese military junta continues with its troop build up along the
Burma-Bangladesh border though tension has eased after its warships
withdrew from the disputed oil and gas exploration area in the Bay of
Bengal, said an aide of Nasaka (Burma's border security force) in Maungdaw
town.

On November 17, about 360 soldiers were sent to border areas in trucks
from Buthidaung Township. They are from Battalion No. 132 and 135 of
Buthidaung Township. They reached at Fokira Bazaar of Maungdaw Township at
around 5 pm.

The two-day, Bangladesh and Burma maritime boundary talks ended yesterday
with no fruitful result as there is a disagreement on drawing the boundary
line on the waters of the Bay of Bengal. The two sides remained rigid on
their stance on the methodology to be used for delimitation.

Therefore, people believe that Burma will deploy troops until and unless a
solution for the disputed maritime boundary in the Bay of Bengal is found.

Bangladesh has also deployed BDR (Bangladesh Rifles) personnel accompanied
by army troops in the border areas as retaliation.

Though border trade is open between Maungdaw and Teknaf, goods export from
Burma to Bangladesh has fallen.

When asked people inside Arakan, many people believe that the maritime
problem will not be resolved easily, it will take time and is very
difficult problem.

____________________________________

November 19, Narinjara News
Three Bangladesh tribal leaders killed near Burma border

An unidentified group with weapons shot and killed three Bangladesh tribal
leaders on Monday in the border area near Burma, reports a local resident.

U Pan Tun Oo, who was headman of Modoke Gri Village area, located near the
Burmese border, was shot to death by the group of armed men while he was
attending his daughter's marriage ceremony in Modoke Gri Village in
Bandarban.

U Pan Tun Oo was a Marama leader from the town of Tensit, inside the
Bangladesh Hill Tract Area. He and his family had fled to the village to
avoid retaliation from an armed rebel group from Burma.

A local source said he died at the scene from three gunshot wounds to his
chest.

The other two leaders killed were from the Mro ethnic group, and were
identified as Sung Bron Mro, 50 years old, and Wree Noung Mro, 35 years
old, from Song Bron Mro Village on the upper Singu River near Modke Gri
Village.

Bangladesh authorities suspect an armed rebel group from Arakan committed
the attack, but has not disclosed any information it may have regarding
the incident.

The local source said the armed group killed them because they had helped
the Bangladesh army free one kidnapped NGO official from the hands of the
armed in 2006. The armed group has been waiting to retaliate ever since.

The area of the incident is located in remote area of Bangladesh near the
western Burmese border, and some rebel groups from Burma are sheltering in
the area.

____________________________________
BUSINESS / TRADE

November 19, Irrawaddy
Global financial crisis hits Burmese markets - Wai Moe

The first signs of the global financial crisis hitting Burma have emerged
as marketplace prices of goods such as rice, beans and palm oil plummet in
Rangoon.

According to weekly business journals in Rangoon, the price of a 50 kg
(108 lb) sack of rice at Bayintnaung Market has decreased from 16,200 kyat
($12.85) to about 14,200 kyat ($11.25) within a month, even though demand
for rice traditionally increases in November.

The price of beans has dropped 50 percent since the financial crisis
began, from 740,000 kyat ($580) per ton to about 500,000 kyat ($394) per
ton, according to businesspeople in Rangoon.

Bean exports to India have been particularly hit, with Indian companies
all but suspending all imports from Burma since the crisis began last
month.

“Bigger companies have been harder hit than smaller ones,” one businessman
said. “Some of those who export beans to China and India have gone into
hiding because they cannot pay back their loans.”

Speaking to The Irrawaddy recently, a Burmese economist based in Bangkok
said, “I do not expect Burma to be hugely affected by the global financial
crisis. However, some exports—garments, for example—could be hit.”

He said that most direct foreign investment in Burma centered on the
energy sectors, such as natural gas and hydropower projects. “However, the
size of investment is only the approved amount, not the realized amount,
so it is very difficult to calculate what will happen,” he said.

“At least 20 percent of Thailand’s energy is imported from Burma. Thailand
cannot reduce its energy demand even though it faces a financial crisis,”
he added.

However, the global price of oil price has been cut by 63 percent since it
hit an all-time high of $147 per barrel in July.

Analysts estimate that decreasing oil and natural gas prices could
seriously affect the Burmese junta’s revenue. The Burmese regime took in
an estimated $2.5 billion in 2007 by selling natural gas to Thailand.

A Rangoon-based economist told The Irrawaddy that he could not say whether
Burma would be affected by the crisis, because the Burmese regime does not
announce official data relating to the economy.

He said the Burmese regime claimed during the Asian financial crisis in
1997 that Burma could escape the crisis because of it was isolated from
the global community.

“But the claim was not true. The Asian financial crisis also affected
Burma,” he said. “The current crisis could also impact the country.”

Burma also became a member of the Association of Southeast Asia Nations
(Asean) in 1997, a move the regime hoped would encourage investment in
Burma. However, investment from the bloc has been slow to materialize.

He added that as Burma’s economy was weaker than other nations, Burma
could be hit worse if the current trends continue.

Burma’s main trading partners—China, Thailand, India and Singapore—have
all seen their markets hit by the ongoing global financial crisis, he
said.

____________________________________

November 19, Mizzima
Ivanhoe likely to resume mining in December

Myanmar Ivanhoe is likely to resume its copper mining activities in Monywa
next month following suspension of production for a few months, company
sources said.

Myanmar Ivanhoe was into copper mining in Sabe hillock and Kyesin hillock
near Monywa city in Sagaing Division in collaboration with junta's No. 1
Mining Corporation. It suspended production in August due to lack of
explosives and some chemical reagents needed for mining and refining ore.
The company has now disclosed that they are likely to resume production
next month.

"We suspended our production for about five months due to inadequate
supply of explosives and chemical reagents used in processing and refining
ore. Now we've got the required raw materials and hope to resume mining in
December," an official of Myanmar Ivanhoe told Mizzima.

During the suspension of work, the employees were asked to go on leave
with five months' salary.

The company began copper mining in Sabe hillock and Kyesin hillock in
Monywa Township, Sagaing Division in 1992. These areas have a lot of
copper ore.

____________________________________
ASEAN

November 19, Bernama (Malaysia)
Activists want ASEAN leaders to focus on abuses in Myanmar

Asean leaders have been urged to pay more serious attention to the alleged
human rights abuses in Myanmar where in November the military regime
sentenced 119 pro-democracy activists, some with up to 65 years'
imprisonment.

Burma Partnership, a movement of organisations and individuals promoting
freedom, democracy and human rights in Myanmar, said the nine Asean
members should recognise the widespread and increasing problems in the
country, and that the situation would not improve until strong
international action was taken.

"Burma (Myanmar) is already a red stain on Asean's name, and its
increasing instability is spilling over.

"Asean needs to take significant measures to propel the release of all
political prisoners in Burma and the return of a proper process of
national reconciliation," the movement said in an open letter to the nine
leaders.

It said that despite calls from many international leaders, including
United Nations Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon and Asean ministers for the
release of political prisoners and valid progression towards national
reconciliation, especially in the run-up to the 2010 elections, nothing
had changed.

"The military junta is avidly ignoring these calls by locking up and
harassing any organisation or person that questions their tyranny," Burma
Partnership said.

The letter was sent to the leaders of Brunei, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos,
Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam.

The movement said Asean leaders should demand the release of all political
prisoners in Myanmar, including pro-democracy leader Aung San Suu Kyi and
ethnic leaders.

"As the Asean Summit is approaching, we particularly ask you to make this
issue focal there," it said, referring to the 14th Asean Summit to be held
in Chiang Mai, Thailand from Dec 13 to 18.

According to the movement, the military junta has stepped up arrests and
sentencing of political prisoners who are not violent criminals, "but
monks, students, bloggers, lawyers, journalists, musicians, poets and
political leaders who peacefully demand a stable government that respects
the rule of law and the people's right to life, liberty and security".

"These arrests and sentences stand against the Asean Charter, and will
contribute to regional instability," it said.

Among those sentenced to jail was U Gambira, leader of the All Burma
Monk's Alliance who organised nationwide peaceful gatherings of monks in
September 2007. He received 12 years' imprisonment.

____________________________________
REGIONAL

November 19, Narinjara
Burmese warships remain at Sittwe port

Several Burmese navy ships have been harboring at Sittwe Port in western
Burma since the first week of this month, a local witness said.

He said, "About 10 warships including 772, 553, 554 and 57 are still at
Sittwe Port and the warships have not been patrolling anywhere since they
arrived at Sittwe Port."

Burmese authorities dispatched many warships to the Arakan coast from
several naval bases around Burma after a maritime dispute arose with
Bangladesh.

"We do not know how long the navy ships are harboring in Sittwe Port
because the maritime dispute has not been resolved by the two countries
and it is still under argument," the resident said.

Moreover, some other Burmese warships have been patrolling the Arakan sea
and some are harboring at the Mayu Lighthouse and Farongar Island near
Sittwe.

A local source said warships from Burma and Bangladesh are remaining close
to the disputed maritime area and are closely watching the events at sea.

A fisherman from Sanpru Island in Bangladesh said the Burmese ships left
the disputed area a few days ago but have since returned. An analyst
confirmed that warships from both countries will be staying and guarding
the disputed waters until the problem is resolved.

____________________________________

November 19, Irrawaddy
Singapore economy forces Burmese home - Saw Yan Naing

Hundreds of Burmese migrant workers in Singapore have returned home due to
the impact of the economic downturn, according to Burmese workers.

A Burmese staffer at the Singapore airport said many migrant workers are
returning to Burma because of the fall off in business, while others are
not able to find a job, including engineers and technicians.

Some employers also have reduced monthly salaries while others have given
employees long-term leave. Some employers have warned they may have to
close down their companies, said the source.

On Monday, the Ministry of Trade and Industry said Singapore exports fell
15 percent to 13.4 billion Singapore dollars compared to the same period
last year as consumer demand from European countries and the US forced
cutbacks, said an Associated Press report.

Exports fell 7.4 percent in October from the previous month, the report said.
The export down turn was led by non-electronic goods, which decreased 16
percent in October. Also, electronic goods, including disk drives, chips
and telecommunications equipment, fell 15 percent, said the report.

An analyst with Citigroup, Kit Wei Zheng, was quoted as saying, “We
maintain our view that the global slowdown will continue to drag the
Singapore economy into a recession in the next 6 to12 months.”

Citigroup itself will likely cut an estimated 300 jobs in Singapore,
Reuters reported on Tuesday.

The cut is a part of the layoff of 52,000 employees by early 2009 with the
aim of helping the US bank’s global recovery plan, said the report. There
are an estimated 9,000 Citigroup employees in Singapore.

Burmese sources in Singapore said Burmese employees who work in bank
companies and construction sites are the most affected by the current
downturn.

Some Burmese job seekers have returned home without getting a job while
others are holding on in Singapore in the hope of finding work.

A Burmese engineer said, “It is impossible to get a job in Singapore now.
I want to tell people in Burma not to come here at this time to try to
find a job.”

Despite the economic downturn, some Burmese migrants continue to arrive in
search of work.

Moe Oo, a Burmese technician, said, “One of my friends borrowed money with
double repayment, and another one pawned his home and garden to come here.
Both of them haven’t found a job yet, and they’ll have to return Burma
soon.”

There are an estimated 40,000 Burmese migrant workers in Singapore.

____________________________________

November 19, Xinhua
China-Myanmar diplomatic consultation held in Kunming - Deng Shasha

The China-Myanmar diplomatic consultation was held on Wednesday in
Kunming, capital city of China's Yunnan province. Chinese Vice Foreign
Minister Wu Dawei and his Myanmar counterpart U Kyaw Thu attended the
consultation

During the talk, the two sides reviewed achievements made in bilateral
ties, and agreed to work together to enhance good-neighborly friendship,
expand mutually beneficial cooperation and advance the bilateral
relations.

U Kyaw Thu also reiterated Myanmar's adherence to the one-China policy
during the talk.

____________________________________
OPINION / OTHER

November 19, South China Morning Post (Hong Kong)
Trade partners can force junta's hand - Sein Win

Recently, the world was given a moment to mark the 13th year of
incarceration of Nobel Peace laureate Aung San Suu Kyi.

Yet, her case is just the tip of the iceberg. In the last weeks, four
legal professionals in Burma have been imprisoned via a kangaroo court
trial, for the crime of defending democracy.

Their number adds to the more than 2,000 political prisoners currently
suffering in Burma's jails. Until they are freed, Burma itself cannot be
free.

In the year following the Saffron Revolution, the Burmese military junta
has been busy. On the one hand, it has been kept active by increased
international attention following last year's demonstrations, which was
further bolstered by the aid effort following the devastating cyclone that
struck in May.

In this context, the junta has been trying its best to look benign and
reformist. Like eager - if bumbling - suitors, the generals have been
courting the world's favours in an impossible attempt to make themselves
look good.

However, there are also moves they have been trying to keep hidden. For
instance, the military has been rounding up democracy supporters, rushing
them through sham trials, and throwing them in jail.

The latest targets of the wrath of Burma's dubious legal system had lodged
complaints with the courts that their clients had not been given fair
trials.

These are not isolated examples, or even rarities. They are evidence of a
culture of injustice which is inflicted on every level of Burma's
long-suffering society.

We believe there are up to 70 political activists - and that term is used
very liberally - involved in 45 cases currently working through this
skewed legal system.

These cases violate, at the very least, Articles 6, 7, 8, 9, 10 and 11 of
the Universal Declaration of Human Rights, which Burma supported when it
was introduced. They also counter the United Nations Charter, to which all
UN nations, Burma included, are obliged to adhere.

The pro-democracy movement has been heartened by the largely
behind-the-scenes initiatives of the Chinese government. Yet, despite
these actions, China still deals openly with Burma, including through the
supply of military hardware to its generals.

India and Russia make up Burma's other major trading partners. Both China
and Russia, of course, sit as permanent members on the UN Security Council
and have used their veto to negate any stronger action of the part of the
world body.

These negative negotiations between Burma and major trade partners must
stop. Trade between Burma and the outside world must be sustainable or it
must cease.

Further, under no circumstances should trade become the driver of
diplomatic agendas. Leading governments trading with Burma must use their
clout to enforce change, lest the horrors of Burma reflect too sharply
upon them.

____________________________________

November 19, Asia Times
Bangladesh and Myanmar in fuel spat - Andrew Symon

The search for offshore energy resources has triggered a border dispute
between Myanmar and Bangladesh that threatens to complicate China's
ambitious designs to pump fuel from the region to its landlocked southwest
Yunnan province through a yet-to-be-built 2,300 kilometer long pipeline.

The two sides squared off this month when Dhaka challenged the legitimacy
of offshore exploration by South Korea's Daewoo, which won the now
contested concession from Myanmar's military government. Tempers flared at
the start of November when Myanmar sent two warships as escorts for
Daewoo's vessels and rigs working in the Bay of Bengal in what Myanmar has
designated as offshore block AD-7.

The block lies in waters along Myanmar's far western border and about 93
kilometers southwest of Bangladesh's St Martin's island. Dhaka has
formally protested to both the Myanmar government and Daewoo, and sent
three warships into the area, underscoring its demand for an immediate
halt to Daewoo's exploration.

Both sides temporarily mobilized their frontier forces, but tensions eased
when Daewoo on November 6 shifted its rig out of the contested waters.
Myanmar's state-run newspaper, The New Light of Myanmar, reported that the
"necessary survey was completed and the rig moved to the uncontested
offshore block A-3 further to the east". Bilateral talks over the dispute
held in Dhaka this week were inconclusive, with the sides agreeing only to
meet again.

The offshore border has been a contentious issue since the creation of
Bangladesh in 1971 after the civil war in Pakistan. The demarcation stakes
have risen with the recent discovery by Daewoo of large gas fields in the
area. These finds, until now in undisputed Myanmar waters, suggested that
areas further to the west and entering the disputed zone might also
produce gas.

Daewoo discovered large gas stores in Myanmar's A-1 block, just offshore
its Rakhine state coast near Sittway and east of the contested maritime
border zone, in 2003. Daewoo estimated at the time the find contained 4-6
trillion cubic feet of gas at an easy-to-tap depth of 150 meters, and had
potential prospects of 14-20 trillion cubic feet.

Daewoo has since 2001 operated the block in partnership with India's Oil
and Natural Gas Corporation (ONGC), GAIL India and the Korea Gas Corp. In
early 2004, Daewoo also took up block A-3, immediately below block A1, and
subsequently the contested block AD-7 to the west, in February 2007.

The Shwe discovery in Block A-1 triggered a frenzy of new exploration in
Myanmar's offshore western areas. China's state-run CNOOC entered in 2004;
Essar, the private Indian company, in 2005; GAIL as an independent
operator in December 2006; China's Natural Petroleum Corporation
(CNPC)/PetroChina in January 2007; Malaysia's Rimbuan Petrogas in February
2007; and ONGC, taking up three blocks, in September 2007.

Similar dynamics are at play in other potentially hydrocarbon-rich areas.
Contested claims between Vietnam and China in the South China Sea have
come into sharp relief over the past 18 months. Beijing has stridently
declared that exploration rights tendered by Hanoi off Vietnam's southeast
coast in 2007 to the UK's BP and India's ONGC and in mid-2008 to the US's
ExxonMobil have been conducted in Chinese waters.

There are also disputes brewing between Brunei and Malaysia over the
maritime border between the east Malaysian state of Sabah and Brunei, and
between Malaysia and Indonesia over an offshore area between the southeast
corner of Sabah and northeast Kalimantan.

These conflicts came to the fore respectively in 2003 and 2005, after
governments awarded exploration rights to international companies in areas
where maritime borders were still unsettled, and they are still
unresolved. Also at issue is the believed to be highly prospective
Overlapping Claims Area between Thailand and Cambodia.

The existence - or at least the possibility - of rich oil and gas stores
in contested maritime areas is making it harder for claimant states to
reach agreements. Analysts say tensions are being driven and negotiations
stalled by growing governmental anxieties over energy security, and none
want to be remembered as the one who gave away a potential sovereign
prize.

"If it were a matter of fish, that is, if the stakes were just fishing
rights, negotiations would be a lot easier," one international lawyer
says.

It's a problem not unique to Asia. According to geographers Victor
Prescott and Clive Schofield in their definitive Maritime Political
Boundaries of the World, less than half of some 427 potential maritime
boundaries have been formally agreed. In Southeast Asia, where boundaries
were often determined by now departed colonial rulers, conditions are
especially prone to dispute.

Few parts of the world have as many states situated in and around such a
complex, oil and gas-rich archipelagic geography. There are nine
Association of Southeast Asian Nation (ASEAN) states, plus Timor Leste,
along with China and Taiwan, that have maritime coasts in the region. The
1982 United Nations Law of the Sea, which allows states to claim exclusive
economic zones 200 nautical miles, or about 370 kilometers, from their
coastlines has often sparked rather than extinguished disputes.

These have often erupted into verbal slanging matches between governments,
centering generally on how potential petroleum spoils would be exploited
and divided. Sending out the gunboats, as seen this month with the
Bangladesh-Myanmar dispute, has been a common regional response.

As Alan Perry, a UK-based law partner at Edwards, Angell, Palmer & Dodge
and an expert on cross-border disputes, recently told a conference in
Singapore, "If you don't protest, you may waive your rights."

With the Bangladesh-Myanmar dispute, those rights represent potentially
huge revenues, considering China's and India's interest in piping fuel
claimed by Myanmar to their respective domestic markets.

So far, Beijing has won out and gas is scheduled as early as next decade
to be transported through a proposed 2,300 kilometer pipeline directly to
its southwest Yunnan province. China's success in securing the fuel, some
say, reflects Beijing's larger economic interests in Myanmar, as well as
its political and diplomatic support for the ruling military junta.

Piping gas to India's West Bengal would for efficient delivery require
negotiating transit rights through Bangladesh, which won't happen any time
soon in view of Myanmar's and Bangladesh's recent spat.

Analysts note there were already long-standing difficulties, steeped in a
history of mutual suspicion, between Dhaka and New Delhi over the idea of
building a pipeline to India. Private companies operating in Bangladesh,
including Chevron, Shell and Cairn Energy, as well as multilateral lenders
like the World Bank and the Asian Development Bank, have long argued the
economic case for pipeline-fed exports.

At the same time, the maritime dispute has only marginally complicated
China's energy designs for the area, but could have wider implications if
tensions resume and escalate.

When the situation threatened to spin out of control this month, China's
Foreign Ministry publicly called for cooler heads to prevail and for both
sides to settle the dispute "through equal and friendly negotiations".

____________________________________
INTERVIEW

November 19, Democratic Voice of Burma
Win Tin dismisses junta’s scare tactics - Htet Aung Kyaw

Veteran journalist and senior National League for Democracy member Win Tin
said activists would not give in to the Burmese regime’s efforts to
intimidate them, in an interview with DVB on Sunday.

Win Tin was released from prison in September after serving more than 19
years and immediately resumed his work with the pro-democracy movement.

DVB began by asking Win Tin’s opinion on the 65-year prison sentences
recently imposed on leaders of the 88 Generation Students group.

WT: “They are giving student leaders, youth activist leaders and young
democracy leaders such long sentences, and it is supposed to be very
frightening and shocking. But in my opinion, these are nothing to be
afraid of. These student youth leaders will not be shaken, because they
will stand up for themselves during the trial. They will go to jail. What
it shows is that however much they try to intimidate them, they will not
be afraid.

“If you go and speak to the student leaders now, they will not say a word
about fear. Similarly, when I listened to their parents and families'
words in the media, they said nothing about being shocked. The families
are surviving in defiance. For example, I heard them say things like,
‘however many years they imprison them for, it could all be over tomorrow
or the day after’. Similarly, when the media speaks to the public, no
words about fear come out. This is a very good sign. We feel sorry about
their imprisonment, but we are not surprised. We have to be fearless. They
are trying to frighten us but we are not afraid. Fearlessness will
overcome and defeat those who try to frighten us.

“If I can quote the words of an old woman, the mother of Zarganar, ‘[the
authorities] are the ones who should be afraid; they will get the hatred
and revulsion of the people’.”

DVB: Do you think the authorities are trying to intimidate people in this
way to stop them protesting against the 2010 elections?

WT: “The purpose of their intimidation is to frighten and alarm their
victims and their families. But you can’t say what the consequences will
be. Their purpose is not only to frighten the families, it is also
political. The reason is, for example, we want to hold a dialogue. This
means we would need to meet face to face. However, they seem to be saying
they do not want this. If this is how heavily they have punished the
student leaders, it suggests that their attitudes on other matters such as
dialogue and negotiation won't improve.”

DVB: What do you think about the possible visit of Ban Ki-moon to Burma?

WT: “In this kind of situation, world leaders need to think carefully
because [the generals] are creating this atrocious situation and if people
like Ban Ki-moon only come and go along with their plans, see what they
are shown and listen to what they are told, the international leaders will
end up supporting and giving their blessing to the military government. To
put it clearly, this kind of person should not come.

“I once said that when people like Ban Ki-moon come to Burma, it is very
good as it shows that world leaders are interested in our country's
political affairs. But, in this kind of dire situation, when world leaders
visit it is like they are giving their blessing. We welcome their interest
but we are not waiting here with open arms. We even want to say clearly to
Mr. Ban Ki-moon; don't come.”

DVB: I heard that the US and UK ambassadors came to meet you. Can you tell
us anything about that?

WT: “It is nothing new. I was told that the person from the US was an
official from the US Senate budget committee. His main job is humanitarian
assistance and aid. I explained to him about the current situation of our
country and he told me that they are giving assistance through the
government. We didn't make much comment about it. As for the various
levels of assistance, I only told him that help should get to the people
who are really in trouble, not to the military government. He also
explained a little bit about his work. I didn't manage to say anything in
particular as we only had 45 minutes. Then he held discussions with the
NLD's AIDS support group for about 15 minutes.

“As for the meeting with the UK ambassador, he told me that UK's support
for democracy in Burma is really growing. His prime minister, Mr Brown,
recently said that support for democracy and the release of political
prisoners including Daw Aung San Suu Kyi was very high. Moreover, the
European Union are also holding discussions on how to give effective help
to Burma's democracy movement or pressure the military government. He said
that Britain would take part in this decision-making process.”

DVB: Did you meet them at the NLD headquarters or the embassy?

WT: “We have been doing all these things in the office, and the military
government has often noted that people are going in and out of the office.
Diplomats have been meeting with political parties and organisations; it
is nothing new. They explained to us their political attitudes and we
explained ours. I want people of other countries to understand. We are a
legal political party. But when you see how much they know about how many
times which embassy personnel have come to see us, you can understand how
tight the situation is for a pro-democracy group like ours. “The military
government is placing guards, intelligence agents and police everywhere.
They say that diplomats' cars keep coming to our compound, making it sound
as if the diplomats are giving us orders and directions. This is
groundless. When an embassy car comes to our office, sometimes it is
because the embassies have issued some statements, news or journals. They
come to give us these; this is a tradition. In a democratic system, the
embassy cars and newspaper people can visit political parties. “Similarly,
when the embassy officials come, they hold discussions with us. They
explain their political situation, their attitudes and the situation in
their country. We also explain to them our country's situation and our
political stance. I want to be clear on this because I knowing that [the
government] is trying to make people misunderstand us. “I also want to say
how difficult it is, how much we have been watched – I want the world to
see clearly how much they are oppressing and controlling us. I have been
out of prison for more than a month now and they have been tailing me
non-stop. They have placed guards at a snack shop and a rice shop day and
night. They also follow me to the houses I visit. They follow me on two
motorcycles or by car when I go to the office.

“For example, I went to see an old friend of mine U Kyi Htoo the other
day. He used to work as the chief director of the Interior Ministry's
censorship board. He is more than 80 years old and he could not come out
of his house to the garden, he was lying in bed. I went to greet him and
the police intelligence officer followed me. He also asked the neighbour
if the person who had entered the house was U Win Tin – they didn’t know.
The neighbour then phoned U Kyi Htoo, which caused him to panic.

“The other day I spoke to the police officer and protested, 'What you are
doing is not right. You can follow us. You can get information from us. It
is not good to harass and intimidate our hosts or other people. Please do
not harass other people. If you want you can ask me where I am going. I
will tell you.' I am out of jail now but I feel like I am still in jail.

“The whole country is in prison, but we can communicate with each other
because of the new technology called mobile phone. But when they
imprisoned the students, they used technology, including mobile phones, to
implicate them. They intercepted their conversations with people abroad
and prosecuted them. They could also prosecute me for talking to you like
this. I might even get 65 years like them.”

DVB: What can people do inside the country?

WT: “Inside the country, the people are feeling angered by [the harsh
sentences]. People are becoming less frightened but more angry. It is
another matter whether we can take advantage of these reactions inside the
country or not. But the people’s resentment will increase anyway. The
economy within the country is deteriorating and we have to expect more
foolhardy actions by the government. The potential for confrontation
between them and the people is very high. In this kind of situation,
political, pro-democracy and opposition groups will have to say something,
do something, give guidance, and I hope that they will do so. I cannot say
what will happen. I am hoping that the movement will become stronger
within the country; I believe that stronger opposition and resistance will
emerge.

“However much they intimidate us, we are not afraid. As Daw Suu said, even
if you are afraid, keep on doing what you have to do. Like the song by Sai
Htee Saing, ‘I am tired, but not tired’, our motto should be ‘I am afraid,
but not afraid’. I myself might be afraid, but I am living with the motto,
I am afraid, but not afraid.

“The worst they can do is imprison or intimidate us. I don't care. We are
not afraid in accordance with the guidance of Daw Suu. Even if I am not
afraid, the people who are afraid will make me feel afraid. To be above
this, I will proclaim that I am afraid, but not afraid. I want to
encourage people to hold onto a doctrine of no fear. You don't have to be
afraid.

“The more people are afraid, the more military governments tend to
frighten and oppress them. If there are ten people and only five people
are afraid, it will make the throne of the king unsteady. It could even
bring it down.”