BurmaNet News, December 12, 2008

[Editor]

December 12, 2008, Issue #3617


INSIDE BURMA
AFP: Myanmar working on Aung San Suu Kyi detention appeal: party
Mizzima News: Opposition MP released
DVB: Nilar Thein asks to be imprisoned with family
DVB: Activists’ families denied overnight passes in Myitkyina
IMNA: SPDC raises gas prices in attempt to recoup revenue lost to
declining energy markets

ON THE BORDER
Irrawaddy: Chin, faced with food shortage, entering Thailand
Irrawaddy: Illegal migrant workers arrested; Others hide in jungle

BUSINESS / TRADE
Irrawaddy: Tay Za: Recession taking a toll

HEALTH / AIDS
Mizzima News: Health care at risk in cyclone hit areas in Burma: UN

INTERNATIONAL
AFP: Nobel laureates launch appeal for Aung San Suu Kyi
Irrawaddy: UN to release U Thant postage stamps

OPINION / OTHER
DPA: Myanmar junta sweeps clean for 2010 polls – Sahil Nagpal
Asian Tribune: Looking beyond 2010 election in Burma – Nehginpao Kipgen

ANNOUNCEMENT
Balance Art Gallery: Chaw Ei Thein third solo exhibition


____________________________________
INSIDE BURMA

December 12, Agence France Presse
Myanmar working on Aung San Suu Kyi detention appeal: party

Myanmar's military government is working on pro-democracy leader Aung San
Suu Kyi's appeal against her detention but has rejected her lawyer's
request to meet her, her party said Friday.

The 63-year-old Nobel Peace laureate has spent most of the past 19 years
under house arrest in Yangon and she sent her first appeal in October to
the cabinet in the country's new capital, Naypyidaw.

She approved a final draft of the appeal against her detention at her
lakeside home during a meeting with her lawyer, Kyi Win, in September, and
he asked for permission to meet her last week.

"The authorities summoned lawyer Kyi Win on Tuesday and told him that
there is no need to meet with Aung San Suu Kyi as the cabinet is working
on her appeal case," Nyan Win, a spokesman for her National League for
Democracy, told AFP.

"They did not tell him details. We are also thinking about their message.
We cannot guess whether they can release her or not," he said.

"Lawyers are preparing to be ready whenever they start her appeal case."

Aung San Suu Kyi rarely meets anyone except her lawyer and doctor. In
August she refused a visit from United Nations envoy Ibrahim Gambari,
apparently in protest at the lack of progress he was making on reform in
Myanmar.

In September she was given an intravenous drip for malnourishment by her
doctor after refusing food deliveries for a month.

"As far as we know, she was in good health after doctor Tin Myo Win
visited last week," Nyan Win said.

Meanwhile, a senior NLD member and journalist, Ohn Kyaing, was released
Thursday after he was detained for more than nine weeks.

"He arrived back at his home yesterday afternoon. He was in good health.
He was mostly questioned by the authorities about helping activities for
Cyclone Nargis victims. He was released as he has no guilt," Nyan Win told
AFP.

Ohn Kyaing was arrested in October while working as a chairman of the
relief committee for Cyclone Nargis at the NLD headquarters in Yangon. The
cyclone in May left 138,000 people dead or missing.

About 270 democracy activists including monks, student leaders and NLD
members were handed long jail terms in recent weeks for their roles in
last year's anti-junta protests and for helping cyclone victims.

"About half of the 270 activists who were sentenced since November were
NLD members," Nyan Win told AFP.

Aung San Suu Kyi's party won a landslide victory in 1990 elections but the
junta which has ruled the country since 1962 never allowed it to take
office.

____________________________________

December 12, Mizzima News
Opposition MP released – Than Htike Oo

In what seems to be a surprise move the  Burmese military junta
authorities released a high-ranking member of the National league for
Democracy from Insein prison yesterday after interrogating him for over
two months about Cyclone Nargis relief operations and his party.

The authorities arrested journalist turned politician Ohn Kyaing (63),
MP-elect from Mandalay Southeast Township Constituency (2), on October 1
this year while he was serving as the party Cyclone Nargis Relief
Committee Chairman.

"They (authority) might have had some information on us. But they realized
later all they knew before were absolutely wrong after questioning me,"
Ohn Kyaing told Mizzima.

But he declined to say what information the authorities had received
before hand.

He was arrested from his residence in South Okkalapa, Rangoon Division and
taken to Pegu prison the same night. Then he was transferred to Insein
prison in Rangoon on November 25 this year.

A jailor in Insein prison told him to pack his belongings at about 11 a.m.
yesterday and then sent him back home though he had nursed no such hopes.

The Nobel Laureate Aung San Suu Kyi led party won the elections in 1990
but the military regime not only refused to hand over power but put the
party under severe pressure. Suu Kyi has been under house arrest for over
13 of the past 19 years and party branches have been banned from
operating.

According to the Thailand-based Assistance Association for Political
Prisoners-Burma (AAPP-B), at least 400 members of the NLD constitute more
than 2100 political prisoners languishing in prisons across the country.

"I hail from Malamyinegyun in Delta region. The leaders of my party
assigned me for relief operation. I felt extremely sorry when I saw the
scale of devastation in the aftermath of the deadly Cyclone Nargis. I did
my best in this operation with full of compassion and benevolence. All our
relief committees joined in the relief campaign," Ohn Kyaing said.

He was previously arrested in September 1990 and sentenced to 17 years in
prison with charges of disaffection towards State and Government, and
endangering the security of the State. This former political prisoner was
released from Taungoo prison, Pegu Division on January 3, 2005.

 Ohn Kyaing joined NLD since its inception and became a Central Committee
member.

____________________________________

December 12, Democratic Voice of Burma
Activists’ families denied overnight passes in Myitkyina – Naw Say Phaw

Local authorities have made it more difficult for the families of
activists detained in Myitkyina prison to visit by refusing to issue guest
passes to them to allow them to stay with local friends.

In recent weeks the Burmese authorities have transferred dozens of
activists to remote prisons around the country, making it difficult for
their families to visit them.

In Myitkyina, Kachin state, families have not been able to stay in the
homes of friends or acquaintances because the local authorities have
refused to issue the passes required for overnight guests, according to a
source close to the family of one of those detained.

"They have to stay in guesthouses with support given by the National
League for Democracy,” said the source, who did not wish to be named.

“The money they have brought with them is not enough.”

He also said the prisoners had not been given the blankets and mosquito
nets donated by the Red Cross.

The source added that 88 generation student Hla Myo Naung, who is being
held in Myitkyina, is suffering from eye problems.

But Ma Nyein, sister-in-law of comedian and activist Zarganar who is
serving a 59-year jail term in Myitkyina, said the family’s last visit to
the prison went well.

"We got to see him for about an hour and we could give him parcels,” Ma
Nyein said. “He is well. He told us to send things to people in Putao
jail. We were able to give him blankets, mosquito nets and medicine,” she
said.

“The weather is fine for him as he likes the cold."

____________________________________

December 12, Independent Mon News Agency
SPDC raises gas prices in attempt to recoup revenue lost to declining
energy markets – Blai Mon

Burma’s military government has raised official gas prices, say sources in
Mon State and Rangoon. According to Burma experts, the move is likely at
attempt to save revenue as the country feels the effect of a declining
international energy market.

On December 1st, the government increased the cost of a gallon of petrol
to 2,500 kyat, says an IMNA reporter in Moulmein and sources in Rangoon.
The increase marked a jump from the highest government price of 1,900 kyat
at the end of November, the result of a slow, but steady, rise from 1,500
kyat in September and October.

The government price hike brought fuel costs in line with dropping black
market prices, most recently tabbed at between 2,500 and 2,700 kyat a
gallon. The black market prices are a significant drop from recent past,
when gas prices crept incrementally closer to 5,000 kyat per gallon from
September through November.

The black market gas prices are in line with dropping prices on the
international market, which have seen a steady decline as a slowing global
economy has dampened demand. According to a report released this week by
the Paris-based International Energy Agency, for instance, global oil
demand in 2008 will measure negative growth for the first time since 1983.

It is, however, unclear why the regime is boosting domestic prices at this
juncture. No official reason for the price increase has been given by the
Ministry of Energy, which has controlled gas and oil prices in Burma since
the sectors were nationalized in 1962. An official at the ministry was
also unable to offer an explanation when pressed by IMNA.

Some Burma analysts think the price increase is an attempt by the SPDC to
increase revenue streams. “We've been hearing countless examples of regime
money saving/grabbing, of which this is but the latest example,” says Sean
Turnell, economics professor at Australia’s Macquarie University and
author of the oft-cited yearly Burma Economic Watch. “Right now the regime
seems to be running short of cash.”

The SPDC is assuredly feeling effects of the decline in oil and gas
prices, Turnell told IMNA on Friday. According to Turnell’s 2008 Burma
Economic Watch, released in May, gas exports make up 40% of Burma’s
exports by value. The 2008 report also warned that Burma was “acutely
vulnerable” to a drop in energy prices, as did the annual report released
by the Asian Development Bank in March.

“Hits that are being taken on the revenue side as Burma's gas exports
decline in price,” Turnell told IMNA. “Lifting the price of petrol saves
the government on the subsidies it otherwise pays – both in terms of lower
losses per unit of petrol, and in what they must hope will be lower
demand. The [SPDC’s budget] is improved, but so is the trade balance.”

How much revenue will be saved remains to be seen, however, as drivers
appear to be responding by increasing their black market fuel purchases.
In the past, drivers typically purchased two gallons per day at the
cheaper government price – their maximum daily quota – and filled the rest
of their need on the black market.

“The price of government gas is increasing, so it doesn’t matter where we
buy our gas from. The outside price is the same,” a bus driver in Rangoon
told IMNA.

A source from Mudon Township, Mon State, agreed and expressed
disappointment with the rising government fuel price. “If I take the gas
from the government, it is no different for me,” she said. “I can just buy
from the black market at the same price.”

____________________________________

December 12, Irrawaddy
Rangoon residents suffer power cuts – Saw Yan Naing

Local residents in Rangoon have been suffering the impact of a strictly
limited electricity supply in the city for nearly one week now, according
to sources in Rangoon.

Win Maung, a resident in Tamwe Township, told The Irrawaddy on Thursday
that his house had only been connected to the electricity grid for six
hours a day since Monday.

“I was getting a full supply of electricity last week,” he said. “But this
week, we have electricity for no more than six hour a day.”

For the purposes of electricity distribution, the city has been divided
into three sectors—A, B, and C. Six hours electricity per day is supplied
to each sector on a rotating basis. Sector A receives electricity from 5
a.m. to 11 a.m., Sector B from 11 a.m. to 5 p.m., and Sector C from 5 p.m.
to 11 p.m.

Despite the strict limits imposed on electricity distribution in the
former capital, there has been no official statement by the government,
said the sources.

However, observers have said that power cuts are inevitable all over Burma
every year in late November and December because it does not rain and
there is a lack of water in the country’s hydropower dams.

Households in Rangoon regularly receive full access to the electrical grid
between June to November—supplemented by the rainy season. However,
electricity is usually limited to six hours between late November and
June.

The current electricity rationing has affected all local households and
companies in Rangoon and has forced certain businesses—such as Internet
cafés, printers and local journals—to close their doors during the power
cuts.

Adversely, the cost of running a business has increased accordingly, said
the sources.

The owner of an Internet café in Rangoon’s Sanchaung Township said he
cannot make a profit these days. He said that he has to use all his cash
flow on buying gasoline to run his shop on a generator. He said he has to
close his shop sometimes during the day.

“I’m very disappointed with this,” said the shop owner.

The editor of a Rangoon journal, who spoke to The Irrawaddy on condition
of anonymity, said that he had been running his office on a diesel
generator since Monday. He said that he has to buy three gallons of
gasoline a day, which costs about 10,000 kyat (US $8) a day.

On November 24, the head of the Burmese junta, Snr-Gen Than Shwe, told
delegates at the 15th annual general meeting of the Union Solidarity and
Development Association that there have been huge improvements in the
electricity sector in Burma in recent years.

Quoted in the state-run newspaper, The New Light of Myanmar, he said,
“There was only 228 megawatts in the past. But [we now have] 977
megawatts, thanks to the Yenwe, Shweli and Kengtawng hydropower plants.”

Than Shwe went on to say that efforts are being made to complete 14 new
hydropower projects as soon as possible in order to produce more than
10,000 megawatts of electricity to “fulfill the electricity needs of the
people.”

____________________________________
ON THE BORDER

December 12, Irrawaddy
Chin, faced with food shortage, entering Thailand – Lawi Weng

More than 2,000 Chin migrants from northern Burma who are faced with food
shortages have illegally entered Thailand through Three Pagodas Pass in
recent months, say sources on the border.

According to sources who are involved in smuggling migrant workers from
Burma into Thailand through Three Pagodas Pass, scores of Chin are
arriving at the border every day.

“I have smuggled about 500 people [Chin] into Thailand during the last
several months,” said one source. “They plan to go to Malaysia.”

An estimated 60,000 Chin now live in Malaysia or India as migrants or
refugees.

Min Thang, a member of the Chin National Council who lives in Mizoram,
Indian, said many Chin villagers have abandoned farming after their crops
were destroyed this year by an infestation of rats. Women also believe
that if they can find work abroad, they can earn enough money to survive
and send some back home, he said.

A Chin woman in Sangkalaburi in Kanchanaburi Province in Thailand said it
took a week to make the journey from Chin State to Three Pagodas Pass
during the rainy season. She said she paid about 150,000 kyat (US $119) to
a smuggler to cross the border into Thailand.

Leaders of the Chin National Council said in August that the Burmese
military government was not allowing food supplies donated from foreign
countries to reach the areas experiencing a food shortage.

According to a Mizoram-based Chin relief group, the Chin Famine Emergency
Relief Committee, about 100,000 of the 500,000 residents in Chin State
face a food shortage, which began in December 2007. Many people are
surviving on boiled rice, fruit and vegetables, said the agency.

A famine is said to occur in the area about every 50 years when the
flowering of a native species of bamboo gives rise to an explosion in the
rat population, experts say. The International Rice Research Institute has
warned of “widespread food shortages” in the region.

____________________________________

December 12, Irrawaddy
Illegal migrant workers arrested; Others hide in jungle – Saw Yan Naing

An estimated 100 Burmese illegal migrant workers in Mae Sot are being
arrested daily by Thai authorities and hundreds have fled to hide in the
jungle, according to a labor rights group in Mae Sot.

Mae Sot, a border town opposite Myawaddy, Burma, is home to an estimated
100,000 Burmese migrant workers, most of them illegal. About 40,000 are
legally registered, according to the Yaung Chi Oo Workers Association.

Moe Swe, the head of the Yaung Chi Oo Workers Association, said between
100 and 150 Burmese migrant workers have been arrested each day since
early December. Others have left the city to hide in the jungle, he said.

“They hide in the jungle for two or three days, and if the situation
improves, they return to work,” Moe Swe said. “If they hear that there
will be a raid, they flee again

“Now, illegal migrant workers are not able to work everyday, and it is
hard for them to make a living,” he said.

Recently, about 3,000 Burmese workers were laid off due to the global
financial crisis and an estimated 500 returned home, according to the
labor rights group.

Many migrant workers only earn enough money to provide for their daily
food. If they are arrested and sent back to Burma, they usually re-enter
Thailand.

Thai authorities regularly launch crackdowns on illegal migrant workers in
Mae Sot at the end of each year.

There are about 1.5 million legal and illegal Burmese migrant workers in
Thailand.

____________________________________
BUSINESS / TRADE

December 12, Irrawaddy
Tay Za: Recession taking a toll – Min Lwin

Tay Za, one of Burma’s richest businessmen, met with senior executives of
his Htoo Trading Co Ltd and affiliated companies on December 3 and told
them that the global recession was severely affecting the country’s
business climate, according to a source who attended the meeting.

The source said that Tay Za told senior managers and directors of his
companies that Burma’s gross domestic product (GDP) would fall from US
$3.6 billion in 2007 to just $2.6 billion in 2008 because of the global
downturn.

These figures contrast sharply with international estimates of Burma’s
GDP. According to the International Monetary Fund, the country’s nominal
GDP in 2007 was $13.48 billion at the official exchange rate. The CIA
World Factbook puts the figure for 2007 at $91.13 billion, based on
purchasing power parity.

Tay Za attributed the decline to falling foreign demand for Burma’s main
exports—natural gas, forest products, minerals, seafood and agricultural
products.

Closely connected to Burma’s junta chief, Snr-Gen Than Shwe, Tay Za plays
a major role in the Burmese economy. Htoo Trading’s business activities
range from logging, tourism, hotels, air transport and construction to
technological investment in the Yadanabon Cyber City in Mandalay Division.

The trade in forestry products was especially hard hit by falling demand,
according to Tay Za. The source quoted him as saying that Htoo Trading
currently has a stockpile of teak valued at $8 million. The company earned
$6 million from sales of forest products last year, he said.

Members of Rangoon’s business community said that Tay Za’s tourism
business has also been suffering since last year, due to the Burmese
regime’s crackdown on monk-led protests last September, which drew strong
international condemnation. The junta’s response to Cyclone Nargis in May
of this year has also been highly criticized.

Tay Za’s meeting with executives took place just one day after Burmese
Prime Minister Gen Thein Sein was reported in the state-run press as
saying that the country would not be affected by the recession hitting the
rest of the world.

____________________________________
HEALTH / AIDS

December 12, Mizzima News
Health care at risk in cyclone hit areas in Burma: UN

Efforts to help Burma's cyclone victims are still being met with a
shortage of funds, and efforts on health could be wasted unless more
concerted efforts are made in the health sector, the United Nations
Humanitarian Coordinator in Burma said.

Bishow Parajuli, UN Resident and Humanitarian Coordinator in Burma, during
a donors meeting held in Rangoon on Tuesday, warned that "Investments and
progress made to date are therefore at risk unless concerted and
coordinated efforts are made to support the health system."

He said an international appeal for funding to help cyclone victims in
Burma is still short of more than USD 100 million. The UN has appealed for
USD 483 million but so far obtained USD 303 million.

The UN said, while agriculture and Early Recovery programs are still the
least funded, health sector continues to be in a precarious state unless
concerted and coordinated efforts are made to support the health system.

Other participants at the meeting including the Medicine San Frontiers
(MSF) pointed out that political consideration might have been one factor
for international donors to fail to come up with more assistance.

"There are very positive results from projects related to prevention and
treatment of diseases like Malaria and HIV/Aids in Myanmar [Burma]. Still,
many donors are not forthcoming with increased support to this country, I
think mainly because of political considerations. For this, the civilians
are paying the price," said Frank Smithuis, MSF-Holland Country director.

In August, the UN admitted that it lost more than a million US dollars of
aid money to Burma's cyclone victims in the country's odd foreign exchange
mechanism, leaving questions of how much of the aid money is actually
reaching cyclone victims.

However, the United States first lady Laura Bush, during her remarks at
the Council on Foreign Relations on the 60th anniversary of Universal
Human Rights Declaration said, US has seen a few evidences that shows its
aid is reaching cyclone victims in Burma.

She said photographs of cyclone victims in Burma's Irrawaddy delta
rebuilding their homes with rice sacks that are stacked with USAID and
American flags, shows that part of aid materials, if not all, are reaching
the affected victims.

"So we do know that some of this relief we're sending into the cyclone
area is getting to the people," she said.

Laura Bush also announced that US will provide an additional USD 5 million
aid for Burma's cyclone victims, through the World Food Program and Save
the Children to be to ensure access to clean water, adequate shelter,
basic health services and other essential needs in the most affected
areas.

Meanwhile, Mark Canning, former British Ambassador to Burma, told the
donors meeting that the British government would like to see Burma
increase its contribution while seeking more donors to come up in aid of
cyclone devastated areas.

"So we and our partners would like to see other international donors scale
up their support. We'd also like to see the government of Myanmar increase
its contribution to the health sector, not least because such a sign of
commitment helps draw in further international assistance," Canning said.

____________________________________
INTERNATIONAL

December 12, Agence France Presse
Nobel laureates launch appeal for Aung San Suu Kyi

Nobel peace laureates urged Europe and the United Nations on Friday to
push harder to bring about national reconciliation in Myanmar and the
release of pro-democracy leader Aung San Suu Kyi.

"We are here today to remind the world of her courage and of the strength
of this woman who has been unceasingly fighting for the freedom of her
people," said a text read by Northern Ireland peace campaigner Mairead
Corrigan Maguire.

Suu Kyi, 63, who won the Nobel prize in 1991, has been detained for most
of the past two decades, mostly isolated from the outside world, only
receiving visits from her doctor and lawyer.

Maguire was meeting in Paris with fellow Nobel peace prize winners Betty
Williams and John Hume of Northern Ireland, F.W. de Klerk of South Africa
and Lech Walesa of Poland.

Together, they called on European leaders and institutions and the United
Nations to "do their utmost to achieve the immediate release of Aung San
Suu Kyi and all other political prisoners."

They also urged world leaders to "force the Burma regime to start a
peaceful reconciliation process in order to restore democracy and respect
for fundamental human rights in this country."

In their declaration, the laureates voiced concern that the drive for
reconciliation launched in Myanmar by the United Nations after the
political unrest of September 2007, was at a standstill.

"We feel at risk of losing a precious opportunity for peace in Burma,"
they said.

Former Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev, whose foundation co-organised the
Paris event but who was unable to attend for medical reasons, sent a
message voicing his support for a global campaign in favour of Suu Kyi's
release.

Irish rocker-turned-activist Bono, speaking after receiving an annual
peace award from the laureates for his global crusade to tackle poverty
and disease, paid tribute to Suu Kyi in her absence.

"We should acknowledge the Nobel laureate who should be here, but is not
here. That is Aung San Suu Kyi," said the U2 frontman, whose 2001 single
"Walk On" was dedicated to the Myanmar democracy icon.

"We have to tell her and send out a message of love. She is still not able
to move freely, and we look forward to the day when she will be."

Last week, more than 100 former leaders wrote to UN chief Ban Ki-moon,
urging him to travel to Myanmar to secure the release of Suu Kyi and other
political prisoners.

But the UN secretary general has ruled out such a visit and expressed
frustration at the military regime's failure to take steps toward dialogue
with the opposition.

Ban visited Myanmar in May after its military rulers came under
international fire for not allowing foreign aid in after a cyclone left
138,000 people dead or missing.

The Nobel winners were meeting in Paris for a three-day annual summit,
coinciding with celebrations marking 60 years since the Universal
Declaration of Human Rights was adopted in the French capital.

____________________________________

December 12, Irrawaddy
UN to release U Thant postage stamps – Wai Moe

The United Nations Postal Administration (UNPA) will in February issue
commemorative stamps marking the 100th anniversary of U Thant’s birth,
according to the UNPA website.

The UNPA said that the U Thant postage stamp will be released on February
6, 2009, in three currencies— US dollars, Swiss francs and Euros. The
prices of the stamp will be US $ 0.94, Swiss francs 1.30 and € 1.15
respectively.

U Thant, the secretary-general of the UN from 1961 to 1971, was born in
Pantanaw, in the Irrawaddy delta in Burma on January 22, 1909.

During his younger years, he mainly wrote commentaries and editorials for
newspapers and magazines in Burma.

After Burma’s independence in 1948 he was appointed Director of
Broadcasting by then Prime Minister U Nu. From 1957 to 1961 he represented
Burma at the UN, before he was unanimously appointed UN secretary-general.

He was the first Asian to hold the position, the only other being current
UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon who is from South Korea.

During his two-term tenure as UN chief, U Thant was widely recognized by
the international community for resolving the Cuban Missile Crisis and the
civil war in the Congo.

He was the founder of many UN development and environmental agencies,
funds and programs, including the UN Development Program (UNDP), the UN
University, the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development
(UNCTAD), the United Nations Institute for Training and Research (UNITAR)
and the UN Environmental Program.

He died on November 25, 1974. His funeral marked a significant page in
Burma’s history. The ceremony turned into an uprising known as the “U
Thant Affair.” in Burma.

Tens of thousands of protesters were angry because the then Burmese
regime, headed by late dictator Ne Win, failed to honor the great
diplomat’s final journey.

On the day of his funeral, December 5, 1974, thousands of Burmese students
overturned the government’s plan to bury U Thant at an ordinary cemetery
in Rangoon. The students snatched the coffin and carried it to the
University of Rangoon and buried him there.

On December 11, security forces brutally stormed the university campus and
removed U Thant's coffin from the campus. During the raid, dozens of
protesters are believed to have been killed.

Burma’s state-run media have not as yet made any mention of the honor
bestowed on U Thant and the country by the UN. However, a Rangoon-based
weekly, Biweekly Eleven, reported the news on its front page this week.

____________________________________
OPINION / OTHER

December 12, Deutsche Presse Agentur
Myanmar junta sweeps clean for 2010 polls – Sahil Nagpal

The two pivotal events for Myanmar in 2008 - Cyclone Nargis and a national
referendum - fell on the same month, highlighting the ruling junta's
callousness in pursuing its "discipline flourishing democracy" at all
costs.

Myanmar's military this year demonstrated to the international community
its extreme indifference to public welfare by pushing through a national
referendum on a new constitution to cement its future political powers on
May 10 - days after the cyclone slammed the Irrawaddy delta and Yangon,
leaving almost 140,000 dead and missing and 2.4 million people in
desperate need of assistance.

Foreign aid organizations were outraged by the regime's delays in allowing
emergency relief and experts as it concentrated its efforts on the
national referendum in all but the worst-hit areas.

The results were highly dubious: 92.47 per cent endorsement for a
constitution that took 14 years to draft and guarantees the military a
dominant role by granting it the right to appoint 110 members of the
440-seat lower house, and 56 members of the 224-seat upper house.

Control of 25 per cent of both houses would bar effectively bar any
amendments to the charter that might threaten the military's dominance.

Adding insult to injury, the junta on May 27 extended the detention of
opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi by another six months to a year,
sparking further outcry from the international community that fell on
deaf, helmeted ears.

Myanmar junta is bulldozing the country towards a general election in 2010
on its "seven-step road map" to "discipline-flourishing democracy" with a
ruthlessness that has already made the outcome unacceptable to most.

Four months after the cyclone hit, while the population was still picking
up the pieces of their shattered lives in the Irrawaddy delta, the regime
was busy making sure there will be no surprises at the polls nor
spontaneous uprisings in 2009, such as the August-September monk-led
rebellion of 2007.

The judiciary has proven an effective tool. In November alone, more than
210 political activists were sentenced to long prison terms, some up to 65
years in jail, according to a report released by the exile Assistance
Association for Political Prisoners.

Most of them were arrested for involvement in September 2007 protests. The
association estimates there are more than 2,000 political prisoners in
various jails nationwide.

The spate of sentences have decapitated Myanmar's organized opposition,
such as the 88 Generation Students group, leaving a vacuum in the
anti-government movement for 2009.

This leaves it up to the main opposition party, Suu Kyi's National League
of Democracy (NLD), which won the last general election of 1990 by a
landslide but was denied power by the junta that declared a new
constitution was needed before civilian rule could work.

"It's likely that they will not contest the 2010 election because doing so
would deny the legitimacy of the 1990 polls which they already won," said
Win Min, a lecturer on Myanmar affairs at Chiang Mai University in
Thailand.

The NLD insists on a committee to reviews and amend the constitution
before it will join elections, and lend some legitimacy to what will
otherwise be an absurd and meaningless exercise.

But some are critical of the NLD's stance. Last month, hundreds of members
from the party's youth wing resigned over dissatisfaction with the way
"the old men are managing the party."

Without the daily leadership of Suu Kyi, who has been under house
detention in near complete isolation from the party since May 2003, the
NLD seems increasingly directionless.

"The fate of the NLD is it must rely on Aung San Suu Kyi. She is the only
one who can make changes within the party," a former party member said.

That is why many analysts think that freeing Suu Kyi remains the most
important matter for NLD's future, and Myanmar's.

"We don't see any new and challenging strong opposition for the junta in
near future," a retired professor from Yangon University said. "The only
thing we can hope for is there will be international pressure strong
enough to release all political prisoners including Aung San Suu Kyi
before the polls."

____________________________________

December 12, Asian Tribune
Looking beyond 2010 election in Burma – Nehginpao Kipgen

It is saddening to see a government’s sentencing of prison terms ranging
from 6 months to 65 years on its own citizens. The alleged convicts are
none other than some of the most admired artists, revered monks and
peaceful activists who dearly love their country.

The international community’s political rhetoric, without any substantive
action, has emboldened the military generals to advance their seven-step
roadmap toward a "disciplined and flourishing democracy," slowly but
steadily.

It was unsurprising to see the lukewarm reaction of U.N. Secretary-General
Ban Ki-moon toward a largely symbolic petition submitted to him by 112
former world leaders, asking him to visit Burma in the wake of rampant
arrests in recent weeks and months. The Dec. 3 petitioners include Jimmy
Carter and Tony Blair, among others.

Ban, out of frustration, through his spokesperson Michele Montas,
responded to the letter by saying: "....will not be able to do so without
reasonable expectations of a meaningful outcome, which is what we have
been saying all along...."

What could that paper tiger achieve, anyway? Had the same letter been sent
by the same number of incumbent world leaders, it could have better
leverage. The move was an encouraging sign, but will have a very minimal
impact, if not none at all. It will be more efficacious if the 112 world
leaders, rather, convince their own governments to take pragmatic actions
in line with what the U.N. chief was asked to do.

It is the U.N. Security Council that can initiate effective action that
the offices of the Secretary General would implement, not vice versa. Ban
Ki-moon sees the limitations his good offices can play in the absence of
any enforcement mechanism.

If Ban were to go to Burma without having to achieve any substantive
results, he could demean the Secretary General’s office. His basic
demands, such as the release of political prisoners and initiation of
dialogue with the opposition groups, have not materialized.

Instead of listening to repeated calls for the release of political
prisoners, the military authority in recent weeks has handed down long
prison terms to anyone seen to be a disturbance to the upcoming 2010
election.

On the other hand, the military was sending yet another clear message to
the international community. Senior General Than Shwe was seen bragging
about the 15-year existence of the military-backed Union Solidarity and
Development Association (USDA) and its growing 24.6 million members.

On the fourth day of the association’s 15th anniversary on November 29,
Senior General Than Shwe was heard saying: “....plans are well underway to
see to the remaining steps including the 2010 transition work program. So,
it is fair to say that the future of the State structure is certain to
materialize.”

In the new constitution, 25 percent of seats in both houses of parliament
(House of Representatives and House of Nationalities) are reserved for the
military. Amendment of constitution will require the approval of more than
75 percent of votes. In other words, the constitution has been designed to
perpetuate military rule.

The military generals learnt a lesson from the 1990 general election - any
free and fair election will be in favor of the National League for
Democracy (NLD) and other democratic opposition groups. It is a question
remains to be seen whether the NLD will be allowed to participate in the
election.

If the NLD is barred from election or the party chooses not to
participate, the political scenario beyond the 2010 election could even
become murkier. While the new government will be busy with its own
agendas, the NLD will continue to lobby the international community to
recognize the 1990 election results.

The 2010 election will bring a transition in Burma, but the new government
will still be directly or indirectly under the military. One other
significant implication is that the result of 1990 general election will
become a bygone history.

As usual, the international community will send mixed responses of the
election outcome. While most Western nations will not or perhaps only
reluctantly recognize the result, many Asian governments will welcome it
as a positive step toward democracy.

It is these conflicting approaches that have given the military generals a
political breathing space. Sanctions versus engagements and or
appeasements by the international community are responsible for the
survival of the military regime.

One must not, however, believe that successful implementation of the State
Peace and Development Council’s seven-step roadmap will bring an end to
the decades-old political problems of Burma.

We will continue to see the simmering political turmoil in the country.
The military generals are indifferent to and even anathema to any concept
of federalism, which has been the basic demand of the country’s ethnic
nationalities, other than the Burmese.

A long-lasting solution to Burma’s problems needs the sincerity, honesty
and the participation of all ethnic groups. Different ethnic groups should
be brought into confidence, and their legitimate demands should be looked
into. In sum, this process of democratization must have an inclusive
approach.

Burma’s political landscape could still be dramatically changed before and
after the 2010 general election, provided that the international community
steps up to embark on a coordinated action using a "carrot and stick"
approach.

Meanwhile, the capability of the military junta should not be undermined.
The regime has taken pride in having one of the largest armies in the
region, with over 400,000 personnel. The military is also well protected
by the U.N. Security Council’s veto structure.

If the international community is sincere and serious about finding a
solution to Burma’s political problems, it should take actions that would
make a difference. There are ways to bring down or convince the military
generals.

Military intervention, a model of six-party talks on North Korea's nuclear
stand-off, and the U.N. Security Council Resolution will be some of the
swiftest, if not most effective, tools to bring democratic change in
Burma. However, none of the above is likely to happen in the near future.

If no realistic action is on the agenda, the international community
should look beyond the 2010 election and start planning for new policies
and strategies to be pursued under a new military-controlled government.

Nehginpao Kipgen is the General Secretary of US-based Kuki International
Forum (www.kukiforum.com), and a researcher on the rise of political
conflicts in modern Burma (1947-2004).

____________________________________
ANNOUNCEMENT

December 12, Balance Art Gallery
Chaw Ei Thein third solo exhibition

“In This Dark and Closed Space”

Opening:
14 December 2008; 6pm

Venue:
Balance Art Gallery
Hmwe Restaurant
3/1 Soi 1, Ton Payom Road
T. Suthep Muang
Chiang Mai, Thailand


>From 14 December to 23 December 2008


Information:
Tel: 053 809 151