BurmaNet News, January 23, 2009

[Editor]

January 23, 2009, Issue #3637


INSIDE BURMA
Irrawaddy: Child labor widespread in Delta
Mizzima News: USDA will not contest in 2010 election: Official
DVB: Htantalan PDC chair sacked for corruption
Xinhua: Myanmar media call for extensive extraction of bio-gas for
electricity supply
AFP: Myanmar junta congratulates Obama: state media

ON THE BORDER
USA Today: Burmese refugees fearful of new life in USA
Irrawaddy: Migrant crackdown won’t solve problem: Rights groups

ASEAN
Philippine Information Agency: RP contributes to ASEAN's continued
humanitarian effort in Myanmar

REGIONAL
AFP: Ambassadors to meet Thai government over illegal immigration
DPA: Indonesia may deport Myanmar boat people stranded in Aceh
Xinhua: Thailand offers to host conference on Rohingya issue

INTERNATIONAL
AP: Diplomat: UN envoy to visit Myanmar at month's end

OPINION / OTHER
Mizzima News: UN envoy to test waters in Burma's political quagmire –
Larry Jagan
The Nation (Thailand): Will Obama be able to change things in Burma? – Sai
Wansai


____________________________________
INSIDE BURMA

January 23, Irrawaddy
Child labor widespread in Delta

Child labor has become widespread throughout the cyclone-ravaged Irrawaddy
delta, according to sources in the region.

A member of a non-governmental organization in the delta who requested
anonymity said that children aged 10 to 15 are valued sources of labor for
Burmese businessmen, fishermen and farmers, because they work for much
lower wages then adults—between 300 and 1000 kyat (US $0.25—0.85) per day
for children, compared to wages of 1,500 to 3000 kyat ($1.25—$2.50) per
day for adults.

“Many fishing boat owners now prefer to hire children because of the
difference in wages. Kids are willing to work for 300 kyat and meals,” he
said.

Sources said that businesspeople in the delta also see children are easier
to control and hard-working. Nowadays, children as young as eight can be
found working on fishing boats, in restaurants, construction sites and
with agriculture.

Myo Min lost his mother when Cyclone Nargis slashed through southwestern
Burma on May 2-3. He now lives with his brother and works full-time aboard
a fishing vessel in the delta.

Speaking to The Irrawaddy, 10-year-old Myo Min said, “I’m tired, but I’m
just grateful to be able to survive.”

Po Po, 11, lost his father and his elder brother in the cyclone. He then
left school to work in a restaurant in Labutta Township. He washes dishes
and earns about 5,000 kyat ($4.20) per month.

He admitted that he cries every night because he misses his mother.

According to a schoolteacher in Konegyi village in Labutta Township, many
children are unable to continue their education because they are orphans
or live with families that are struggling economically.

An estimated 400,000 children did not return to school after the cyclone,
according to leading relief agency Save the Children Fund. Of those, Save
the Children said they helped about 100,000 children get back to school.

The INGO estimated that about 40 percent of the 140,000 people who were
killed or disappeared in the cyclone disaster were children. Many who
survived were orphaned or separated from their parents, the agency said.

____________________________________

January 23, Mizzima News
USDA will not contest in 2010 election: Official – Salai Pi Pi

The pro-government organization – Union Solidarity and Development
Association – in Burma's western Chin state on Friday denied rumors that
it will be changed into a political party to contest the ensuing 2010
general elections.

An official in the USDA office in Hakha, capital of Chin state, said that
there has been no decision to fight the elections that the Burmese regime
has declared to hold in 2010.

"So far, we have no information from above to prepare for a transformation
of the organization into a political party," an official in Hakha's USDA
office, who declined to named, told Mizzima.

"We have not held any political campaigns," the official said. "Till now
we are only engaged in activities related to rural development work."

The official told Mizzima that the USDA in Chin state will keep staying
out of political campaigns but focus only on regional development work in
the area.

"The USDA is a civilian organization. It will continue to function as a
civil society," he added.

However, other sources in Hakha town said that USDA had actually selected
a few individuals to be candidates in the ensuing elections.

"Most of the candidates are delegates who had attended the national
convention," the source told Mizzima.

According to the source, USDA has selected national convention delegates U
Thatmang, and U Lakung and another independent U Ngikung, a retired
Township administration official as candidates.

The USDA official, however, denied nominating candidates for the
forthcoming poll saying, "We did not nominate any one as a candidate but I
can't say if the people will pick up individuals from USDA for their
organization in future."

The USDA was established by Burmese military Supremo Senior General Than
Shwe in 1993, and is the largest civil society in Burma with a membership
of over 20 million.

____________________________________

January 23, Democratic Voice of Burma
Htantalan PDC chair sacked for corruption – Khin Maung Soe Min

The chairman of Htantalan township Peace and Development Council in Chin
state has been sacked after being accused of corruption by the local Union
Solidarity and Development Association.

When state USDA coordinator and deputy home affairs minister general Thura
Aung visited the township recently, local USDA members told him that PDC
chair Kwar Leh Htan was corrupt.

According to a source close to Htantalan township PDC, the USDA members
felt that Kwar Leh Htan did not pay them the appropriate respect.

"Kwar Leh Htan was a megalomaniac,” the source said.

“He didn't care about the USDA and never treated them with respect so they
were disappointed and told [general Thura Aung] about his corruption."

Since Kwar Leh Htan’s dismissal, rumours have been circulating in Chin
state that the state's Peace and Development Council chairman colonel Hote
Ngai and other officials were angered by the decision.

This latest incident highlights ongoing tensions between USDA members and
Peace and Development Council officials.

____________________________________

January 23, Xinhua
Myanmar media call for extensive extraction of bio-gas for electricity supply

Myanmar official media Friday called on rural people to extensively
extract bio-gas from animal waste to get sufficient electricity supply at
low cost, replacing firewood.

Bio-gas can be produced from animal waste such as cow dung, pig-dung,
chicken and goat dropping, the New Light of Myanmar said in its editorial,
adding that the dung of five to seven cattle or pigs, buffaloes and goats
is enough to produce electricity through bio-gas for a household.

Apart from small-scale bio-gas digesters for houses, large bio-gas
digesters can be built to supply electric power to the whole village, the
paper outlined.

According to the paper, innovation has been carried out in Myanmar to
build bio-gas digesters for supply of electric power in rural areas.

The paper underlined that such move has proved successful in some of the
areas.

Meanwhile, Myanmar has also introduced cultivation of Jatrophaphysic nut
plants to produce bio-diesel.

Myanmar has set a target to grow 3.23 million hectares of bio-diesel
plants in 2008 in a bid to increase the bio-diesel output in the year to
substitute diesel.

Output from Jatropha plantations is being projected as up to 20million
tons a year, according to the agriculture authorities.

The Jatropha nuts were initially planted on 648,000 hectares mainly in
three dry zones of Mandalay, Sagaing and Magway divisions.

According to the Ministry of Agriculture and Irrigation, Myanmar has about
6.41 million hectares of land suitable for growing Jetropha plants.

There are two physic nut species in Myanmar -- Castor and Jatropha.

____________________________________

January 23, Agence France Presse
Myanmar junta congratulates Obama: state media

Myanmar's top junta leader has congratulated new US President Barack Obama
on his inauguration, state media reported Friday in the first official
reaction to him assuming office.

The official New Light of Myanmar newspaper said Senior General Than Shwe
"has sent a message of congratulations to the Honourable Barack Hussein
Obama, on the occasion of his inauguration" as president.

The front page message comes after a senior Myanmar official told AFP that
Myanmar hopes Obama will change Washington's tough policy toward its
military regime and end the "misunderstandings" of the past.

Former US president George W Bush's administration strengthened decade-old
sanctions against Myanmar while his wife Laura was an outspoken critic of
its ruling junta.

The New Light also carried congratulations from the junta's deputy leader
General Maung Aye and foreign minister Nyan Win to US Vice-President Joe
Biden and Secretary of State Hillary Clinton.

The messages, three days after the inauguration, are a rare communication
between the two countries.

Myanmar's opposition National League of Democracy party has also
cautiously welcomed Obama's presidency, but said time would tell if he
could help open up the military-run country.

Formerly known as Burma, Myanmar has been ruled by the military since
1962, and is under economic sanctions from the United States and Europe
over rights abuses and the continuing detention of pro-democracy leader
and Nobel laureate Aung San Suu Kyi.

____________________________________
ON THE BORDER

January 23, USA Today
Burmese refugees fearful of new life in USA – Jesse Wright

The bus rumbled to life, and Hsar Say took one last look at the only home
he'd known for the past 20 years. The lime green rice paddies, the banana
trees, the bamboo huts he shared with the other refugees — they were all
part of his past.
In a few hours, Say would board a plane to America with his wife and two
kids. Whether that was a good thing, he wasn't sure.

"Basically I think (America) will be better than a refugee camp," he said.
"In a refugee camp, you have no rights. You are put in a cage. It's
illegal to travel outside the camp, so it's very different from being a
human."

On the other hand, Say was a very important man — a teacher — among the
other Burmese refugees at the Mae La camp in western Thailand. His wife
taught adult literacy classes. He confessed to being "a little afraid"
that in America, they'd end up like his wife's cousin, who moved to
Kentucky and toils in a clothing store packing boxes.

"Maybe in America, I can work at a job to help other people," he said
hopefully. "I like social work."

Such are the dilemmas facing Say and the 15,000 other refugees from Burma
who have arrived in the USA since 2006, making them the biggest single
group of refugees to enter the country during that time, according to the
State Department.

Those who have escaped from Burma, also known as Myanmar, are in many
respects a special case: They have fled a military regime that the Bush
administration had singled out as one of the most brutal in the world. A
cyclone in May killed at least 85,000 people and sent even more Burmese
streaming across the border into Thailand, where there are about 100,000
refugees packed into nine camps.

Former first lady Laura Bush, who had made the plight of Burma's people
one of her main causes, visited the Mae La camp in August and met a group
of refugees on their way to South Carolina. "It was very moving for me to
see how thrilled they were to be able to leave," she recalled in a recent
interview with USA TODAY.

President Obama, in a statement in June, condemned the oppressive Burmese
regime, saying the situation there "offends the conscience of the American
people."

Adjusting to outside life is a particular challenge for many Burmese
refugees.

Many, including Say, have spent most of their adult lives in the camps,
leaving them unprepared for life on their own. Those who are granted
passage to America by U.S. immigration officials must first take part in
classes on how to provide for their own basic nutrition, how to change a
diaper and how to use the bathroom on an airplane.

The fear of the outside world is so strong that about 60% of the refugees
refuse to leave the camps, according to the International Organization of
Migration (IOM), which is paid by the U.S. government to administer the
classes.

"They don't know what's going on in America," said Peter Salnikowski, the
IOM's cultural orientation program coordinator. "They ask: 'What are the
camps over there like?' "

Spread over a dense green range of jagged low mountains, the Mae La camp
is one of the largest camps in Thailand. Tall, barbed-wire fences separate
the 40,000 residents from the rest of the world. Huts have been built with
bamboo and teak hacked out of the jungle.

Some residents carry water from a nearby well; others cook curry over
wooden fires.

Many are members of the Karen ethnic group, whose half-century struggle
for independence within Burma has made them particular targets of the
military. The Karen Human Rights Group, a local aid agency, says the
military attacks Karen villages, burns homes and uses civilians as human
minesweepers.

In defending its actions, the Burmese regime has said it is in a battle
against separatists and terrorists.

The Karen make up about 7 million of Burma's 48 million people, though
they are not the only group that suffers.

Last month, the United Nations criticized the Burmese regime for its
failure to allow aid groups access to victims of Cyclone Nargis, eight
months after the storm made landfall.

Despite it all, leaving is a difficult decision for Karen who fear their
way of life will be lost in a new country.

"We're afraid that if we go (to America) we will lose our culture," said
Naw Janey, 46, a mother of four.

She moved her family to Mae La this year after Cyclone Nargis destroyed
their bamboo home on the Irrawaddy River delta. Despite her misgivings,
she is applying for refugee status.

"We don't want to go to America, but it would be a good chance for my
children to study," she said.

The U.S. government had closed its doors to most Karen refugees after the
Sept. 11, 2001, terror attacks, after which it classified the Karen
National Union — a group that includes guerrilla fighters as well as
politicians — as a terrorist organization. The ban was lifted by the State
Department in 2006, although former guerrillas are still denied entry.

To get to the USA, camp residents first must be formally classified as
refugees by the United Nations. Then they can apply to the U.S.
Citizenship and Immigration Services, a process that can take months.

The ordeal gets no easier when they arrive in the USA.

The Karen speak their own language and only sometimes speak Burmese, which
means good translators are hard to find, according to Interfaith
Ministries of Greater Houston, an organization that helps Karen settle in
the USA.

Local resettlement agencies are tasked with teaching the refugees English
and helping them find a job once they arrive.Say was lucky: Among the
three dozen passengers on the bus leaving the Mae La camp, he was the only
one who spoke English. That will ease his transition to life in America.

As the refugee camp disappeared from view and the bus approached the
Bangkok airport, his thoughts centered on the life he was leaving behind.

"One day, if it is OK, or even if it's not OK, maybe I can come back and
visit and help the people who are struggling," he said. "Peace will take
time."

Contributing: David Jackson in Washington

____________________________________

January 23, Irrawaddy
Migrant crackdown won’t solve problem: Rights groups – Lawi Weng

The Thai government’s vow to crackdown on illegal migrants will not solve
the country’s migrant problems, say human rights groups.

Jackie Pollock, a founding member of the Chiang Mai-based Migrant
Assistance Program (MAP), said, “A crackdown is not a good solution. It’s
just making migrants’ lives more risky. The best solution is to offer new
registration and let them come out and stay legally.”

Thai Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva said on Thursday the government
would crackdown on illegal migrants, while commenting on allegations that
the Thai navy has mistreated Rohingya boat people by forcing them back out
to sea.

“We have to solve the illegal immigrant problem otherwise it will affect
our security, economy and the opportunities of Thai laborers,” he said.
“We will push them out of the country.”

Adisorn Kerdmongkol, a team organizer with the Migrant Working Group (MWG)
based in Bangkok, said, “The root cause of the problem for illegal Burmese
migrants is the political crisis in Burma. They have no food there so they
have to come to Thailand.

The Thai government should offer legal status to solve the long-term
problem. They should not only focus on a security crack down in the
country."

Estimates say there are about 4 million Burmese migrants living and
working in Thailand. About 500,000 are legally registered with the Thai
Ministry of Labor.

The Thai government earlier this month announced it would not offer
illegal Burmese migrants a chance to register for legal status this year.
Several hundred illegal migrants were arrested in Bangkok in recent weeks.

Recently, the Thai government has expressed concerns about more and more
Rohingya illegal migrants arriving by boat in southern Thailand.

The English-language newspaper, Bangkok Post, reported on Friday that the
government is considering whether to set up a coastguard center with a
mission to block the influx of illegal immigrants trying to enter the
country by boat.

Prime Minister Abhisit instructed the National Security Council (NSC) to
study the idea. The center would work with in cooperation with other
agencies, including the navy and Marine Police Division.

In the meantime, officials said they are waiting to deport 4,880 Rohingya
for illegally entering Thailand. Security officials were ordered to boost
efforts to track down human traffickers helping illegal migrants.

The Thai navy has been accused of misconduct against the Rohingya,
including torture. The navy denied the charge, saying the illegal migrants
were given food and water before being turned back to sea.

Human rights groups, including International Refugees and Human Rights
Watch, claim the Rohingya boat people were forced back out to sea with
little food and water. The groups said as many as 300 Rohingya are
missing.

On Tuesday, the UNHCR asked the Thai government to grant access to the
boat people rounded up in the recent incidents for interviews. The agency
said it believes 126 Rohingya are in the custody of Thai authorities,
following the detentions and allegations.

Meanwhile, Indonesia detained 193 Rohingya illegal migrants from
Bangladesh and Burma who were in boats drifting off Indonesia’s Aceh
Province on January 7.

Indonesia Foreign Minister Hassan Wirajuda told the reporters in Jakarta:
“Indonesia is working with their countries of origin and the International
Organization for Migration to properly repatriate the migrants.”

“Based on interviews they are economic migrants,” he said. “They are not
political asylum seekers.”

____________________________________
ASEAN

January 23, Philippine Information Agency
RP contributes to ASEAN's continued humanitarian effort in Myanmar

The ASEAN Cooperation Fund for Disaster Assistance received a US $
50,000-donation from the Government of the Republic of the Philippines
through the Philippine Embassy in Yangon, Myanmar on Thursday.

The Fund is used for relief and recovery activities of the Association of
Southeast Asian Nations in cyclone-hit Myanmar.

Dr. Anish Roy, special representative of the Secretary-General of ASEAN,
received the contribution on behalf of Dr. Surin Pitsuwan,
Secretary-General of ASEAN.

The contribution from the Philippine government is to support ASEAN's
continued effort and leadership role in humanitarian assistance in
Myanmar.

"We would like to extend our sincere thanks to the Government of the
Republic of the Philippines for its continued support, which enables ASEAN
to reinforce our assistance and commitment to the people of Myanmar
affected by Cyclone Nargis," said Dr. Roy.

Contributions made to the ASEAN Cooperation Fund for Disaster Assistance
have been utilized to help people recover their livelihoods through
community-based early recovery projects in the cyclone-affected areas as
well as in disaster risk management and other Nargis-related activities.

____________________________________
REGIONAL

January 23, Agence France Presse
Ambassadors to meet Thai government over illegal immigration

A senior official from Thailand's foreign ministry is set to meet with
ambassadors from neighbouring nations on Friday to discuss illegal
immigration, a ministry spokesman told AFP.

She said ambassadors from Myanmar, India, Bangladesh, Indonesia and
Malaysia will meet permanent secretary Virasakdi Futrakul at 2pm
(0700GMT).

The Thai government in recent days has defended itself against allegations
that the Thai army left a group of ethnic Rohingya boat people to die on
the open seas.

"The foreign ministry's permanent secretary will have a meeting with
ambassadors from the five countries to Thailand this afternoon," a foreign
ministry spokesman said.

"The meeting is mainly to discuss cooperation between the five countries
to solve the problem of illegal immigration across the Andaman Sea... We
know that the topic will include the issue of the Rohingya," she said.

Survivors and a human rights group have accused the Thai army and navy of
detaining and beating up to 1,000 members of the Rohingya minority from
Myanmar late last year, before towing them out to sea with little food or
water.

Nearly 650 Muslim Rohingya have been rescued in waters off India and
Indonesia. Some told officials that they had been beaten in Thailand
before being set adrift in barges with no engines or navigational
equipment.

The UN's refugee agency (UNHCR) said Tuesday it had asked the Thai
government for access to 126 of the refugees to assess their needs.

Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva has so far rejected the request and
Thursday vowed to crack down on illegal immigration into Thailand.

"We will push them out of the country," Abhisit said.

The UNHCR says 80 of the migrants were being held on Koh Sai Daeng island
off the Thai coast in the Andaman Sea. Another 46 have been handed over to
the Thai military with no further information on their current location,
it said.

Thailand's military says it is investigating the claims but insists it
follows international standards in dealing with illegal immigrants.

____________________________________

January 23, Deutsche Presse-Agentur
Indonesia may deport Myanmar boat people stranded in Aceh

Indonesia has denied requests by the United Nations refugee agency for
access to 193 Myanmar boat people stranded in the westernmost province of
Aceh, the foreign ministry said.

Foreign Ministry spokesman Teuku Faizasyah said that the boat people
appeared to be part of about 1,000 refugees from Myanmar's Rohingya Muslim
minority held and later released by the Thai military late last year.

The Myanmar boat people were found adrift off Sabang island in Aceh
province on January 7 and are now being sheltered at the naval base.

"From information we have collected, it appears that they are economic
migrants," Faizasyah said.

Faizasyah said the foreign ministry could not involve the UN refugee
agency UNHCR because the Myanmar refugees were not believed to be
political asylum-seekers.

But he said the International Organization for Migration was involved in
the verification of the boat people's status.

The spokesman said the ministry would decide next week on what to do with
the boat people.

"Deporting them is an option," he said.

The UNHCR had sent two written requests to the foreign ministry to be
allowed access to the boat people, UNHCR Indonesia spokeswoman Anita Restu
said.

"We want to have access to them because they need international
protection," she said.

The BBC reported on its website that the UN refugee agency was awaiting a
response from the Thai government over its request this week for access to
126 Rohingya asylum-seekers still being held in southern Thailand.

Last month around 1,000 Rohingyas were towed out to sea and set adrift by
the Thai military, the BBC said, citing accounts from survivors who
reached India and Indonesia.

Hundreds were missing, feared dead and Thai officials said they were
investigating.

____________________________________

January 23, Xinhua
Thailand offers to host conference on Rohingya issue

Thailand offered to host a conference concerning about Rohingya with its
neighboring countries as soon as possible, Tharit Charungvat, spokesperson
of Thailand Foreign Ministry said on Friday.

The plan came after Virasakdi Futrakul, Permanent Secretary of Thai
Foreign Ministry called a meeting with Ambassadors to Thailand of Myanmar,
Bangladesh, India, Indonesia and Malaysia to discuss about cooperation on
illegal migrants entering the Kingdomvia Andaman sea.

"It is a good offer and I will pass this matter to my government to make
the decision" said Tharit as the Ambassador of Malaysia to Thailand saying
at the meeting

Tharit said that Rohingya is the regional matter which has to get a joint
cooperation to solve the problem.

Tharit said also that Thailand is not an aimed country of Rohingya rather
they wants to go to Muslim counties mainly.

However, there is human trafficking ring, operating in Thailand and on
international networks.

Recently, nearly 650 Rohingya have been rescued in watercourse of India
and Indonesia. A human right group have accused the Thai navy of detaining
and beating up to 1,000 Rohingya from Myanmar and Bangladesh before towing
them out to sea.

____________________________________
INTERNATIONAL

January 23, Associated Press
Diplomat: UN envoy to visit Myanmar at month's end

The special United Nations envoy tasked with promoting political
reconciliation in Myanmar will visit the military-ruled country at the end
of this month, a diplomat said.

The visit by Ibrahim Gambari is set for Jan. 31, the diplomat said
Thursday. The diplomat spoke on condition of anonymity because the news
has not yet been officially announced.

The visit comes in the wake of a judicial crackdown during which
government courts handed down harsh prison sentences to scores of
pro-democracy activists. It will be Gambari's first visit in five months,
and his seventh since he began his assignment in mid-2006.

The country's pro-democracy movement, whose leader is detained Nobel peace
laureate Aung San Suu Kyi, has been disappointed by Gambari's previous
visits, which have failed to secure the release of Suu Kyi from more than
13 years under house arrest.

During Gambari's last visit in August, Suu Kyi refused to meet him, and he
also failed to be received by junta chief Senior Gen. Than Shwe.

The current junta came to power in 1988 after violently crushing a
nationwide pro-democracy uprising. It called elections in 1990 but refused
to honor the results after Suu Kyi's National League for Democracy party
won a landslide victory.

____________________________________
OPINION / OTHER

January 23, Mizzima News
UN envoy to test waters in Burma's political quagmire – Larry Jagan

The United Nation's special envoy, Ibrahim Gambari will make another visit
to Burma at the end of the month on what may be his final effort to broker
talks between the military regime and the detained opposition leader Aung
San Suu Kyi.

The trip to Burma will start on January 31 and is scheduled to end on the
February 3, Mr. Gambari told Mizzma.

But he declined to give any further details. "We are still working on the
modalities of the visit," he said.

During this trip he expects to meet senior members of the military
government, opposition leaders, including Aung San Suu Kyi's who is
currently under house-arrest in Rangoon, and representatives of the
country's ethnic minorities, according to senior UN officials who declined
to be identified.

"Although it's only a four-day working trip, he will extend his stay if it
seems progress can be made on his top priorities," a UN official close to
Mr. Gambari said.

"Meeting Aung San Suu Kyi and hearing her views is obviously a crucial
part of this visit," he added. On his last trip, the envoy made two
unsuccessful attempts to see the pro-democracy leader.

The Nigerian envoy will tour the region after his talks with the Burmese
military leaders, according to UN sources in New York. While all the stops
have yet to be finalised, he is certainly expected to visit Bangkok,
Beijing, Jakarta, Singapore and Tokyo for discussions on how best to
proceed. But he is expected to return to New York to brief the UN
Secretary General Ban Ki-moon.

This visit signals the UN's renewed efforts to directly engage the
hard-line Burmese military government after months of debate about how
best to encourage the  junta to introduce genuine democratic reforms and
include all the country's political players, especially detained Aung San
Suu Kyi. A planned visit by the UN secretary-general, Ban Ki-moon in late
December was cancelled because the UN boss felt his visit would not
produce any concrete results.

Some countries, notably the United Kingdom, pressed hard for the visit go
ahead, even though it was not likely to achieve any real break-through in
Burma's political deadlock. The UN chief though has been very active
behind the scenes since, holding a series of senior level meetings with
the countries most concerned about Burma and the five permanent members of
the Security Council.

Mr. Gambari's latest visit – his first in five months, and his seventh
since he took up the job in early 2006 – is something of a stock-taking
mission, according to diplomats based in Rangoon. The regime has been
sending mixed messages about their attitude to international mediation.
Whereas they eventually welcomed international cooperation to tackle the
aftermath of the devastating Cyclone Nargis, they persist on resisting
international pressure in the political arena.

"Mr. Gambari will be testing the waters – seeing where the regime might be
willing to, at least tolerate, international support and assistance, while
at the same time reiterating the international community's message:
national reconciliation must be genuine and truly inclusive," said a
western Rangoon-based diplomat. But most analysts remain pessimistic that
Mr. Gambari will be able to achieve much.

The main opposition party, the National League for Democracy, led by Aung
San Suu Kyi is hopeful that the visit will at least break the ice, and may
lead to renewed contact between them and the junta, and the possible start
of tentative talks – at least at a lower level within the regime.

"I believe the special envoy's visit this time will be beneficial as the
envoy and the NLD share the same principles on achieving political reform
in the country," the NLD spokesman Nyan Win, told Mizzima.

But many analysts are cautious about raising expectations for this visit –
as this has led to massive resentment inside Burma when Mr. Gambari's
efforts failed miserably to produce results. "Don't expect anything," a
western diplomat who has been close to the international mediation efforts
told Mizzima. "The visit has very low objectives and expectations," he
said.

The envoy is expected to meet the opposition leader on this trip, although
she refused to see him last time even though she had on his previous
visits.

The real test of whether the envoy's forthcoming trip is going to be more
successful than usual will be whether he is able to meet the junta
supremo, Than Shwe. The Senior General had refused to meet him on his last
few visits.

"He is likely only to be allowed to meet the largely ceremonial Prime
Minister Thein Sein," said Win Min, a Burmese academic, based at Chiang
Mai in Thailand. "The top general obviously has no regard for him and
believes it isn't necessary to talk directly to him."

The UN visit also comes in the wake of a massive crackdown on dissidents.
In the past few months the government has handed down harsh prison
sentences to more than a hundred pro-democracy activists.

The NLD told Mizzima they would be discussing the arrests and sentencing
of more than 300 NLD members and other political prisoners with Mr.
Gambari during his stay in Rangoon.

While the UN envoy will certainly repeat the international community's
main concern – the immediate release of Aung San Suu Kyi, there is very
little likelihood that the regime will budge.  The opposition leader and
Nobel peace laureate has been under house arrest for more than 13 of the
last 20 years. Her detention order runs out in late May. But it is
expected to be renewed for a further year at that time.

The junta for its part is anxious to show that it is not them who are
blocking the visit of the UN chief, Ban Ki-moon. Some diplomats believe
that Mr. Gambari's top objective, is to sound out the situation in
readiness for a rescheduled visit by the UN boss.

Ban Ki-moon maybe planning visit Burma in the first part of this year,
either after the ASEAN Summit next month, or more likely the ASEAN-UN
summit scheduled to be held in Thailand in April.
____________________________________

January 23, The Nation (Thailand)
Will Obama be able to change things in Burma? – Sai Wansai

Even before the euphoria has died down, President Barack Obama moved
almost with lighting speed on his first day in office to tackle the issue
of Guantanamo Bay detention centre, which was seen as the right approach
to restore the US's lost moral posture. The prison in Cuba would be closed
down within one year and the administration has suspended trials for
suspects at Guantanamo for 120 days pending review.

Many EU countries were particularly impressed with the closure of
Guantanamo, Meanwhile, Burma is hinting that he change Washington's tough
policy towards its military regime and end "misunderstandings" of the
past, according to a senior Burmese official on Wednesday.

In his inaugural speech, Obama said: "To those who cling to power through
corruption and deceit and the silencing of dissent, know that you are on
the wrong side of history but that we will extend a hand if you are
willing to unclench your fist."

Also, in the administration's foreign policy agenda, a paragraph reads,
"Seek new partnerships in Asia: Obama and [Joe] Biden will forge a more
effective framework in Asia that goes beyond bilateral agreements 
" work
to build an infrastructure with countries in East Asia that can promote
stability and prosperity; and ensure that China plays by international
rules".

One wonders whether the overtures by the Burmese junta could mean a fresh
start for reconciliation and the beginning of a win-win situation.

Arranging six-party talks, like in the case of North Korea, could be a
possibility. The only condition to get it started is the give-and-take
nature of compromise. While the US-led team wouldn't pose a problem, the
Burmese junta would have to move from its stance of only playing by its
own rules. In other words, the acceptance of political accommodation,
all-inclusiveness and a level playing field would have to be agreed upon.

The military regime couldn't expect to better ties with the US without
making a genuine compromise to end its tyrannical rule.

While the opposition groups are aware that Obama's plate is already full
with other heavy issues, like the global financial crisis, withdrawing
troops from Iraq, climate change, improving international relations,
brokering peace in the Mideast, as well as empowering Afghanistan
government against the Taleban; they are confident that the moral and
humanitarian issue involving Burma would also be part and parcel of his
foreign-policy agenda.

As it is, the Burmese military has never been ready for compromise, where
power-sharing or political accommodation is concerned. In such a
situation, Obama would be forced to alter his approach to help deliver
reconciliation and democratisation in Burma.

Although the diplomatic overtures to woo the Burmese military for genuine
change should continue, Obama could also up the ante by radical
humanitarian intervention, short of military undertaking. For example,
Washington could work hand in hand with Bangkok to create sanctuaries
along the Thai-Burmese border, where the bulk of 500,000 internally
displaced persons are struggling to survive. All this could take place
with the help of ethnic resistance movements like the Karen National
Union, Shan State Army South, Karenni National Progressive Party, New Mon
State Party (NMSP) and the like. This way the US military wouldn't need to
get involved physically but only come up with material needs and know-how.

If this happened, other forms of aid could be carried across the border
without having to deal with the military regime.

For such a scenario to become a reality, Obama would need to secure
Bangkok's involvement in implementing humanitarian aid. It should be
possible for him to coordinate and work closely with PM Abhisit
Vejjajivat, notwithstanding Asean.

Imagine how such radical approaches could weaken the Burmese front-line
soldiers and lead to defection. If this happens, the power of the military
based on coercion and fear would crumble like a house of cards.

Of course, this is just one out of many options to end the stalemate and
create a new balance of power, so that the Burmese military would be
willing to come to the table for a genuine give-and-take discussion.

At the end of the day, a two-pronged approach of "pressure and engagement"
would be the only viable approach to deal with such an entrenched military
dictatorship. What the people of Burma really need now is a real
commitment from international stakeholders, with the US leading, to give
them a helping hand, before another massive uprising like the 2007 saffron
revolution takes place.