BurmaNet News, January 24-26, 2009

[Editor]

January 24-26, 2009, Issue #3638

QUOTE OF THE DAY
"We have to take the engines off the boats or they will come back. The
wind will carry them to India or somewhere."
– Thai naval officer confirming that ethnic Rohingya boat people have been
taken back out to sea and set adrift, as told to Al Jazeera

INSIDE BURMA
DVB: Win Tin rejects election talks with UN envoy
DVB: Labour activist jailed for 10 years
Mizzima News: First ever political journal to be published soon
Irrawaddy: Obama speech censored in Burma
Channel News Asia: Singapore and Myanmar Red Cross sign agreement on
Cyclone Nargis relief

ON THE BORDER
Aljazeera (Qatar): Thai admits Rohingya set adrift
UPI: Chinese charge 5 in Myanmar abductions

BUSINESS / TRADE
Xinhua: Myanmar targets to export 500,000 tons of surplus rice in 2008-09

HEALTH / AIDS
Xinhua: 3-D fund help NGOs in Myanmar fight diseases this year

INTERNATIONAL
DVB: NCGUB appoints three new ministers
AP: Officials probe lead poisoning among refugees

OPINION / OTHER
The Nation (Thailand): Rohingya refugee issue needs a holistic approach -
Kavi Chongkittavorn
Irrawaddy: Soaring kyat means more economic turmoil for Burmese


____________________________________
INSIDE BURMA

January 26, Democratic Voice of Burma
Win Tin rejects election talks with UN envoy – Htet Aung Kyaw

Senior National League for Democracy member Win Tin has said the party
will not discuss the 2010 elections with United Nations special envoy
Ibrahim Gambari when he visits Burma this week.

Gambari is due to visit Burma from 31 January to 3 February, his fifth
visit to the country since the government’s violent crackdown on public
demonstrations in September 2007.

During his last visit, he was not able to meet with junta leader senior
general Than Shwe or detained NLD leader Aung San Suu Kyi and was
criticised for the lack of tangible progress made.

Win Tin said he did not have high expectations for the special envoy’s
upcoming visit.

“[Gambari] has made a lot of visits to Burma in the past but they have
barely made any impact,” Win Tin said.

“Recently, he reached the point where Daw Aung San Suu Kyi wouldn't even
receive him. I don’t expect any significant results from this visit
either," he said.

"If he does nothing more than what he does usually on his trips; talking
nonsense, visiting places the government wants him to visit and seeing
people the government wants him to see, then we would support him but
without much appreciation."

Win Tin said the UN envoy would be welcome to discuss the problems with
the constitution adopted by the military regime in 2008, but the NLD would
not participate in talks about the planned 2010 elections.

"If the UN wants to give us their opinions and tell us their concerns
about the 2008 constitution, we would at least like to listen to them,”
Win Tin said.

“We would strongly encourage the UN if they will put in the effort for
negotiations on this issue," he said.

"But if they are only here to talk about the elections, then we won't
listen to them."

NLD members were disappointed that Gambari raised the issue of the 2010
election during his last visit, and said they could not support an
election held on the basis of the 2008 constitution.

Win Tin also criticised the UN officials who called out to Aung San Suu
Kyi with a loudspeaker from in front of her house last year, saying that
they violated diplomatic ethics.

____________________________________

January 26, Democratic Voice of Burma
Labour activist jailed for 10 years – Aye Nai

Labour activist Zaw Htay, who helped farmers file a report to the
International Labour Organisation on land seizure in Magwe's Nat Mauk
township, was sentenced to 10 years’ imprisonment by Magwe court on
Friday.

A Magwe resident who attended Zaw Htway's trial said judges had concluded
he was guilty of leaking sensitive national information by taking
photographs of the land seized by the army for the report to the ILO.

His co-defendant Hla Soe, a resident of Nat Mauk, was acquitted after he
agreed to testify as a government witness.

About 50 farmers in Nat Mauk last year filed a report to the ILO on the
confiscation of over 5000 acre of farmland in villages around the town by
the army.

____________________________________

January 26, Mizzima News
First ever political journal to be published soon – Phanida

A political journal will be published for the first time on Thursday in
Burma notorious for its censorship.

This 'Northern Star' journal will focus on political views, political
issues at a time when the 2010 general elections are due. The
editor-in-chief of this new journal will be army veteran and former
government mouthpiece daily paper 'New Light of Myanmar' Vice
Editor-in-Chief U Thiha Aung.

"Burma is heading towards democracy. We will publish this journal in the
belief that it's time to write on political issues in this period of
transition to democracy. We will publish some articles written by
journalists and writers which will be beneficial for the people along with
reviews. Political parties will be formed soon and the organizational work
of these parties will commence too. We will review the past and show the
right way as we believe to the people", U Thiha Aung said.

"It's been 20 years from 1988 to 2008. In our country, people know
something and don't know something too. Some known facts are forgotten
also. There are milestones in our history which must be recollected and
remembered. We will integrate these historical facts with the up-to-date
situation for public study. Our articles will be something on these
lines," he added.

In the first issue, 'Transition to democracy', 'The role of journalists'
articles among others written by Maung Wun Tha, Maung Suu Sa and Kyaw Win
will be included, it is learnt.

"The main aim of our publication is contribution to current journals being
published in Burma. It will complement the vacuum in the current media
world in Burma which lacks a political issues-centered journal. The
journalists are doing what they believe. In this crucial time of
2009-2010, current general issue journals cannot fill this vacuum. We need
a special political journal filled with theory and knowledge on politics,
views and experiences on politics etc. We will give these articles and
views to the people with an unbiased editorial policy. We have only one
objective, it is for the sake of the country", U Thiha Aung said.

But he frankly admitted that they could barely publish news and articles
on detained political leader Daw Aung San Suu Kyi and her 'National League
for Democracy' (NLD) party and also on 88 Gen Students. Most of the
student leaders from this group are now serving long prison terms. Burma
is under tight censorship popularly known as 'Press Kempetai' named after
the secret military police during the Japanese occupation.

U Thiha Aung served in the Army in the rank of a Major from 1972 to 1991.
Then he was transferred to the Ministry of Information and later became
Vice editor-in-chief of 'New Light of Myanmar' and then was promoted to
Director and General Manager. He retired in 2007.

"It's good. Whoever publishes whatever, it should be edited in accordance
with media ethics and based on true facts," a veteran
journalist-turned-politician from NLD who was released recently from
prison after serving nearly 20 years told Mizzima.

The Ministry of Information issued publishing licenses for six journals
and six magazines in October 2008. At least 130 weekly journals are being
published in Burma with such licenses.

An editor from Burma does not have high hopes about the new journal given
the situation of tight censorship. Political articles and news with
foreign issues are being permitted more often than domestic issues which
have undergo tighter restrictions. So he does not have much hope about the
new journal, he said.

It is learnt that the new journal 'Northern Star' will have 20 pages and
will be published on Thursday with at least 3,000 copies being circulated
at a price tag of Kyat 300 per copy.

____________________________________

January 26, Irrawaddy
Obama speech censored in Burma – Min Lwin

The Burmese government’s Press Scrutiny and Registration Division (PSRD)
censored publication of a major part of US President Barack Obama’s
inauguration speech in the Rangoon-based weekly journal The Voice,
according to journalists in the former capital.
Sources said that the censorship board decided not to allow the publishing
of parts of Obama’s inauguration speech that included sensitive political
messages.

A part of the speech that was cut was: “To those who cling to power
through corruption and deceit and the silencing of dissent, know that you
are on the wrong side of history; but that we will extend a hand if you
are willing to unclench your fist.”

Burmese inside and outside the country circulated this part of the speech
through the Internet and it was widely interpreted as a message to
dictators, including Burma’s rulers.

A journalist in Rangoon said that Burma’s censorship board ordered the
speech to be removed from the front page of The Voice, but it allowed the
journal to publish stories and pictures of Obama in its inside pages.

Burma’s privately owned magazines and journals have widely covered news of
Barack Obama since the presidential election campaign began.

According to media sources in Burma, there was originally little
harassment or any serious warnings from the notoriously fickle censorship
board. But all publications have reportedly been careful not to cover
sensitive material about the strained US-Burmese relationship.

Burma’s top military leader, Snr-Gen Than Shwe, formally congratulated the
US president on his election victory.

Last week, the Agence-France Presse (AFP) news agency reported that the
Burmese junta hopes that the new US president will change Washington's
tough policy toward the military regime and end the "misunderstandings" of
the past.

“Our two countries' relations have had some misunderstandings in the past
with the Bush administration. Mr Obama needs to study our country's real
situation so that he can change policy,” a Burmese official reportedly
told AFP.

“There have been many mistakes in the past [in relations between the
countries]. We have had misunderstandings. But now we are expecting good
intentions,” he said. The official also accused former President Bush of
making "one-sided" decisions.”

In spite of media restrictions, many people inside Burma watched the live
televised coverage of Obama’s inauguration on satellite television.

Rangoon-based media sources said that the PSRD was acting under the
instructions of the Ministry of Information. The censorship board did not
permit the publishing of articles related to Obama’s speech in other
weekly journals, including The Yangon Times and True News.

____________________________________

January 25, Channel News Asia
Singapore and Myanmar Red Cross sign agreement on Cyclone Nargis relief

The Singapore Red Cross signed an agreement on January 22 with its Myanmar
counterpart to provide humanitarian aid to victims of Cyclone Nargis.

For a start, the collaboration will see three rural health centres and a
cyclone shelter being built in three townships in the Irrawaddy delta.
Money to do this will come from funds raised by the Singapore Red Cross.

This latest development adds to other efforts the Singapore Red Cross has
been making, as part of its cyclone relief work in Myanmar.

The organisation had collaborated with various Singapore welfare
organisations, as well as agencies in Myanmar, to provide assistance to
victims in the immediate aftermath of the cyclone.

Projects completed included the rebuilding of a new village at Auk Pyun
Wa, which include homes, a school, a clinic, a cyclone shelter, a school
and an orphanage in Thanlyin.

Projects underway include a cyclone shelter in Twantay, two schools, a
cyclone shelter in Bogalay and another cyclone shelter in Kungyangone.

The Singapore Red Cross has received a total of S$11.6 million from
members of the public and corporate sector for its Cyclone Nargis fund. Of
this, almost S$9 million has been expended or committed.

The Singapore Red Cross will continue to be the custodian of the fund and
says it will assist victims of Cyclone Nargis, so long as the funding
remains available.

____________________________________
ON THE BORDER

January 26, Aljazeera (Qatar)
Thai admits Rohingya set adrift

A Thai naval officer has confirmed claims that ethnic Rohingya boat people
from Myanmar, detained along Thailand's south-western coast, have been
taken back out to sea and set adrift.

The naval officer, who declined to be identified, told Al Jazeera: "We
have to take the engines off the boats or they will come back.

"The wind will carry them to India or somewhere."

Humanitarian groups have accused Thailand of systematically abusing the
Muslim minority Rohingya.

The allegations of abuse came after accounts emerged of a group of
Rohingya being beaten before being towed back out to sea after being
intercepted off Indonesia.

'Abused and exploited'

Reports from survivors who washed up on India's Andaman islands and
northwest Indonesia suggested as many as 550 of the 992 towed out to sea
by Thai soldiers later died.

Myanmar refuses to recognise the Muslim Rohingya minority in western North
Rakhine state as a distinct ethnic group.

Human rights activists say they have been abused and exploited, forcing
many to flee abroad, mainly across the border to Bangladesh.

Thousands of Rohingya and Bangladeshis leave the country aboard rickety
boats each year in hopes of finding work, with many travelling to Thailand
by sea and then overland to Malaysia.

Local accounts

Villagers in Kura Buri on Thailand's southern coast told Al Jazeera on
Saturday that they were also asked to remove the engine of a boat with
Rohingyas on board before it was towed back out to sea.

It is unclear what happened to the people on the vessel in December.

On Thailand's Andaman coast, Al Jazeera's Selina Downes also found
decaying boats that had been dumped by Thai authorities.

Local villagers said that one boat had recently been discovered carrying
about 46 Rohingya who had spent almost two weeks travelling from
Bangladesh.

The fate of 126 Rohingya refugees is still unknown, but according to the
UNHCR, they are thought to be in Thai military custody.

Fate unknown

The UN refugee agency asked Bangkok on Tuesday to be allowed to visit the
126 refugees, most of whom it said were detained on an Andaman Sea island.

The foreign ministry said that was no longer the case, citing the army's
Internal Security Operations Command (ISOC), which admits to overseeing
the arrest and detention of the group of Rohingya.

"The latest information that we have from ISOC is that there are no longer
any Rohingya left in Thailand," said Thani Thongpajkdi, the deputy
ministry spokesman.

He also refused to answer repeated questions about the current whereabouts
of the 126, or say where, when and how they left the country.

____________________________________

January 24, United Press International
Chinese charge 5 in Myanmar abductions

Five suspects were in custody in the kidnapping of young Chinese who
allegedly had run up gambling debts in neighboring Myanmar, Chinese
authorities said.

Officials said 10 kidnapping victims were released Friday and sent back to
their homes in Hangzhou, the capital of China's Zheijian province,
following the earlier release of 19 other victims from Shanxi province,
Xinhua reported Saturday.

It was not clear whether ransoms demanded by the abductors had been paid
or whether more victims from earlier abductims remained in their captors'
hands.

Shanghai Daily reported more than 100 victims were believed to have been
kidnapped and held for ransom since January 2008, but that the figure had
not been confirmed by Shanxi police. Beijing News had reported previously
that at least 50 youths in Yuncheng had been kidnapped since August alone.

The victims reportedly were lured to the China-Myanmar border by
kidnappers promising they could get rich in Myanmar.

____________________________________
BUSINESS / TRADE

January 26, Xinhua
Myanmar targets to export 500,000 tons of surplus rice in 2008-09

Myanmar has targeted to export 500, 000 tons of surplus rice from the
Ayeyarwaddy delta during the current financial year of 2008-09 ending
March, the local Yangon Times reported in this week's issue.

The export will be done by 28 companies, the report said.

According to the figures of the Central Statistical Organization, in
2007-08, Myanmar exported 358,500 tons of rice, gaining 100 million U.S.
dollars.

The export tonnage in the first three quarters (April-December) of 2008-09
went to 150,000 tons amid storm.

Of the rice export, 101,235 tons were shipped to South Africa, 11,908 tons
to Singapore, 8,007.85 tons to Sri Lanka, 2,499.7 tons to the United Arab
Emirate, 1,500 tons to South Korea and 1,197.7 tons to Egypt, the Myanmar
Agricultural Produces Trading was quoted as saying.

Myanmar government has urged agricultural entrepreneurs to make greater
efforts for exporting more rice, saying that the country has enough
cultivable land to boost paddy production.

Out of 17.6 million hectares of cultivable land, only 11.6 million
hectares of paddy or 65.9 percent could be grown, the authorities said.

The calendar year 2007 saw a production of 30 million tons of paddy out of
7.6 million hectares grown, but only about 20,000 tons of rice were
exported.

____________________________________
HEALTH / AIDS

January 26, Xinhua
3-D fund help NGOs in Myanmar fight diseases this year

The Three-Diseases (3-D) Fund has provided nine non-governmental
organizations in Myanmar with a total of 630,000 U.S. dollars to fight
HIV/AIDS, tuberculosis (TB)and malaria this year, the local Flower News
reported Monday.

The fund will be used in the one-year anti-three-disease project in states
and divisions of Kachine, Mon, Shan, Kayin, Rakhine, Yangon and Mandalay.

The 3-D fund had provided the country with 4 million dollars for use in
the fiscal year 2007-08, the initial year of its five-year project to
fight the three diseases, earlier report said.

The entire 3-D fund project, worth about 100 million U.S. dollars, was set
to be funded by a group of six donors -- the European Commission, Sweden's
Sida, the Netherlands, United Kingdom's Department for International
Development, Norway and Australia's Aus AID.

The 3-D fund was developed in 2006 to compensate for grants which were
suspended in August 2005 by the Global Fund to Fight AIDS, TB and Malaria.

According to a latest report of the UNAIDS, the number of people infected
with HIV in Myanmar dropped to 240,000 in 2007 from 300,000 in 2001.

HIV/AIDS is among the three major communicable diseases of national
concern designated by Myanmar. The other two diseases are tuberculosis and
malaria.

Myanmar treats the three diseases as priority with the main objectives of
reducing the morbidity and mortality in a bid to become no longer a public
problem and meet the Millennium Development Goals of the United Nations.

In its prevention efforts against malaria, the Myanmar government has
distributed 50,000 long lasting insecticidal nets annually since 2000 to
hardly accessible areas of national races with up to 400,000 existing bed
nets also impregnated with insecticide annually since then.

____________________________________
INTERNATIONAL

January 26, Democratic Voice of Burma
NCGUB appoints three new ministers – Htet Aung Kyaw

The exiled Members of Parliament Union of Burma has appointed three new
ministers to the National Coalition Government of Burma and reappointed
Sein Win as prime minister at its fourth conference in Dublin.

The new appointments on 24 January bring the number of cabinet ministers
in the government in exile to seven.

Thaton MP Khun Myint Tun, Tatkon representative Win Hlaing and Tun Win of
the Arakan League of Democracy will join Sein Win and current ministers Bo
Hla Tint of Moegok, Dr Tint Swe from Pale and Khoo Marko Ban from Pekon.

The individual responsibilities of the new ministers have not yet been
outlined.

Sein Win said the decision to expand the cabinet was based on the policy
of standing firm to uphold the result of the 1990 elections, and called
for inclusive activities and public movements to take place before the
junta’s planned 2010 elections.

He also said that ethnic national groups and the National Council of the
Union of Burma would be consulted on the NCGUB’s future activities in the
upcoming strategic meeting, also to be held in Dublin.

Former minister Maung Maung Yae was appointed the new joint secretary of
the MPU, alongside the organisation’s chair Khoo Teddy Buri, vice-chair
San San and secretary Thein Oo.

A dispute arose between the NCGUB and the NCUB earlier this month after
the latter declared on 1 January that it planned to form a new national
unity government in exile.

Khun Myint Tun, secretary of the NCUB and former joint secretary of the
MPU, explained that the NCUB's statement was based on the MPU's policy of
expanding the NCGUB with ethnic national leaders and appropriate persons,
which was set out in February 2008.
"We have been unable to implement the policy yet,” Khun Myint Tun said.

“We are going to form a negotiation committee to do it."

Senior National League for Democracy member Win Tin said he supported all
efforts for democracy in Burma but warned that the establishment of a new
government in exile could prove divisive.

"The new rival government divides us into two groups, so we could end up
with two governments and two nations,” he said.

“If we are divided in this way, history will judge the person who started
it."

____________________________________

January 26, Associated Press
Officials probe lead poisoning among refugees

Health officials are trying to find out what's causing high lead levels
among Myanmar refugee children in Fort Wayne, Indiana.

The Allen County Healthy Homes program, which has an office in the
Community Resource Center for Refugees, has about 25 Myanmar children on
its caseload, said Director Amy Hesting. Fort Wayne is home to thousands
of expatriates from Myanmar, also known as Burma.

A recent spike in cases of lead poisoning among Burmese children has led
officials from the program and an investigator from the State Department
of Health contracted with the Centers for Disease Control to visit the
children's homes looking for possible sources.

The team has mostly ruled out the usual sources, like lead-based paint,
The News-Sentinel reported. Investigators now are looking at medicines,
toiletries or household products that may have been imported from
countries such as Thailand where the refugees lived before coming to the
United States.

"We're getting as many products as we can and starting to analyze them,"
Hesting said. She said investigators were starting with items to which
refugee children have the most exposure.

Samples are analyzed in Indianapolis by the state health department, but
it can take weeks before results are sent to Fort Wayne.

Hesting said the CDC also was helping the group determine if the lead
poisoning is limited to refugees.

____________________________________
OPINION / OTHER

January 26, The Nation (Thailand)
Rohingya refugee issue needs a holistic approach - Kavi Chongkittavorn

THAILAND'S CALL for a conference in Bangkok of a focus-group on the
Rohingya issue is a good initiative. All the stakeholders could meet and
work out practicable and durable solutions on a transnational issue that
increasingly needs a comprehensive and multilateral approach.
In responding to the outcry of the international community on the Rohinya
saga in the past weeks, Foreign Minister Kasit Piromya acted quickly by
consulting all concerned countries, including Burma, Bangladesh, Malaysia,
Indonesia and India to find solutions.

Last week the Foreign Ministry met and discussed with the ambassadors from
these five countries and stressed that this is a regional issue that would
need joint common efforts.

The plight of the Rohingya refugees has suddenly become a hot topic after
nearly 650 of them were rescued in the territorial waters of India and
Indonesia. The Royal Thai Navy was alleged by international human rights
organisations of pushing back these refugees out to the Andaman Sea where
they had come from. Several hundreds of people, it has been contended,
might have died at sea.

Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva demanded a thorough investigation and
pledged to punish whoever was behind such inhuman actions.

The Rohingya refugees and asylum seekers are a minority in Burma's
northern Arakan state. During 1991-92, around 270,000 refugees fled to
Bangladesh to escape persecution by the Burmese military junta. Over the
years, the UN High Commissioner for Refugees has successfully repatriated
at least 230,000 Rohingyas back to Burma. The rest are staying in the two
main camps - Nayapara and Kutupalong in Cox's Bazar - without any real
prospects of going home. Due to the short distance between these camps and
Thailand's western coastal areas, they began to come by boats in the
mid-1990s, before it became headline news.

Gradually the numbers became bigger and the influx more frequent,
especially during this time of the year when the sea is usually calmer.

They would arrive in Ranong and other coastal provinces through vast
transnational human smuggling rings, either on transit to Malaysia or
Indonesia, or in search for a better life in Thailand. Most of them being
Muslims would like to find jobs or be settled in the same religious
environment. But quite often, at the first transit point, they usually
ended up being exploited in Thailand.

During the Surayud Chulanont government, Thai authorities were instructed
not to push them back out into the sea as it could endanger their lives.
Instead, the visitors would be detained and given food and transported to
the Thai-Burma border either in Kanchanaburi or Tha Songyang. They were
sent across the border safely. However, the soft Thai response has
encouraged human smuggling rings to increase their operations as no risks
were involved for them. If they failed, these asylum seekers would
eventually end up in the refugee camps along the Burma-Bangladesh border.
Out of desperation, some of these refugees attempted to come to Thailand
again.

According to the US Committee for Refugees and Immigrants (USCRI), more
than 14 million people around the world fled their homes either due to war
or persecution in 2007.

Thailand is one of top destinations with over 400,000 refugees and asylum
seekers. USCRI pointed out that within Asia, Thailand along with Malaysia,
China, Bangladesh and India are among the worst violators of the
international principles as outlined by the UN Convention on Refugees
1951.

At the moment, according to unofficial statistics, Thailand is home to
more than 5 million refugees, asylum seekers and illegal migrant workers
and visa over-stayers in one form or another from over a dozen countries,
including all bordering countries except Malaysia, and countries as far as
Iran, Afghanistan, Uzbekistan, Russia, North Korea, China, India, Nepal,
Sri Lanka, Bangladesh and Pakistan as well as a few thousands of illegal
immigrants from Western countries. Despite several improved measures to
increase coordination among intra-agencies in the past, on the whole the
Thai treatment of these unfortunate people still comes under fire due to
the lack of consistency, compassion and cooperation with international
organisations, including UNHCR and numerous humanitarian organisations.
One hindrance is Thailand's continuous refusal to sign the 1951 Refugee
Convention. Fear and a lack of understanding of the convention has
prevented the country from joining 147 other nations that have done so.

Strange as it may seem, when it comes to accession or ratification of
international treaties and protocols, the concerned Thai officials are
overly cautious in interpreting Thailand's commitments. They tend to
overdo it. Thailand took a long time to sign on to the UN against Torture
Treaty in 2007. The efforts to ratify the International Criminal Court of
Justice, which Thailand proudly signed in 2000, have fallen flat in the
past eight years as some conservative lawyers thought that doing so would
subject the Thai royal family to the ICC court of justice. Like a lot else
in this country, whenever events and issues are related to the monarchy,
the responsible authorities tend to play safe and exaggerate the impacts -
real or imagined - without scrutinising the ever changing domestic and
international environments. A more level-headed rationalisation is
urgently needed.

Upon closer scrutiny, it is a real blessing in disguise that the Rohinya
problem blew up in the face of the Abhisit-led government. First of all,
given his professed high moral ground, Abhisit will definitely act on
issues related to human rights and freedom of expression sooner than
later. Secondly, the Rohingya refugees also exposed the Thai government's
limit, or for that matter what the countries at the receiving end can do
on a human tragedy of this scale that they have not created. Thirdly,
their plight will enable the public and global communities to understand
the problem's root cause and solve it at the source. Finally, it's hoped
this travesty would prompt all stakeholders to cooperate and provide more
assistance, especially the UNHCR and other humanitarian organisations.

____________________________________

January 26, Irrawaddy
Soaring kyat means more economic turmoil for Burmese – Yeni

The black market value of Burma’s currency, the kyat, has hit a three-year
high of nearly 1,000 to the US dollar, after years of steadily declining
in value. From 2005, when a dollar cost just 880 kyat, until just last
week, when the going rate was 1,190 kyat to the dollar, the Burmese unit
had shown only persistent weakness. In the past few days, however, this
trend has reversed dramatically.

So what’s going on?

Currency dealers say that the rise in the value of the kyat cannot be
attributed to any single cause, but point to a number of factors that are
likely having a significant impact.

One, they say, is the fall in border trade with China and Thailand due to
weak demand for products that are increasingly beyond the means of
ordinary Burmese. Over-the-border imports are the main source of goods
that are not widely available in Burma, and they are usually paid for in
hard currency. As more Burmese decide they can’t afford those goods, their
need for foreign currencies—especially the dollar, but also the Chinese
yuan and the Thai baht—has also decreased.

Another factor is that Burma’s foreign currency reserves in the Central
Bank may be rising. A Burmese economist who is close to government
policymakers estimates that the regime has banked upward of US $3 billion,
thanks mostly to the country’s trade surplus, particularly with Thailand,
which is the major importer of Burma’s natural gas.

Burma is also awash in money from Chinese and other foreign investors.
According to government statistics, foreign investment in Burma nearly
doubled in the first nine months of 2008 compared to the same period of
the previous year. In its latest statistical survey, the Ministry of
National Planning and Development said that investment from January to
September last year jumped to $974.9 million dollars from $502.5 million
in the same period the previous year.

Aid money could also be an additional factor. According to the UN Office
for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs, nearly $500 million has
already been transferred to Burma for relief programs in areas hit by
Cyclone Nargis. (How much of this has made its way into government coffers
through the regime’s convoluted foreign exchange procedures is a matter we
may never get to the bottom of.)

Most recently, the European Commission has announced that it will give
€40.5 million (US $52.4 million) in humanitarian aid to Burma this year,
while Asean Secretary-General Surin Pitsuwan told the regional bloc that
it needs to raise another $700 million for a three-year recovery program
in the cyclone-devastated Irrawaddy delta.

Whatever its causes, the strengthening kyat will undoubtedly have a
significant effect on the outlook for the Burmese economy.

Burma’s exports will obviously suffer, as foreign buyers balk at higher
prices for Burmese goods, especially amid a global slowdown that has hit
demand from some of the country’s key trading partners, including China,
Thailand, Singapore, India and Malaysia.

Analysts say the falling price of oil and natural gas, the country’s most
valuable exports, will seriously affect the Burmese junta’s revenue. Sean
Turnell, an associate professor at Australia’s Macquarie University who
specializes in monitoring Burma’s economy, said that gas exports, which
account for about 40 percent of all export income, fell 28.5 percent in
value between April and December of last year—a loss of $670 million
compared with the same period a year earlier.

Agricultural products, which are Burma’s second-largest source of export
income, earning $600 million from China and India annually, have also been
affected by the downturn. For instance, exports of pulse crops to India
fell by up to a million tons after buyers abandoned negotiations because
of inflated prices and bought from Vietnam instead.

Falling world prices and slack demand are hitting Burmese rice farmers
especially hard. Already struggling to cope with the effects of Cyclone
Nargis, many Burmese rice farmers say they are working at a loss. One
farmer said that his income from the sale of rice amounted to 70,000 kyat
($59) per acre, while production costs were about 90,000 kyat ($78).

Meanwhile, as most Asian banks appear to be faring reasonably well amid
the global financial crisis, Burma’s arcane system of agricultural credit
has not been completely spared.

“We are facing liquidity problems,” said Khin Maung Nyo, a Rangoon-based
economic analyst, explaining that businessmen who normally provide
financing to farmers were withdrawing from the rice market.

All of this points to the fact that, contrary to the reassurances of Prime
Minister Gen Thein Sein, Burma is not immune to the effects of the global
financial meltdown. Sadly, the country’s economy, already one of the
world’s most depressed, will only go from bad to much, much worse unless
regime finally take its head out of the sand.