BurmaNet News, May 8 - 11, 2009

[Editor]

May 8 – 11, 2009, Issue #3707


INSIDE BURMA
AP: Doctor visits Myanmar's ailing Aung San Suu Kyi
BBC News: Burma's Suu Kyi 'in poor health'
New York Times: Ethnic groups in Myanmar hope for peace, but gird for fight
The Times (UK): Burma's orphans of the storm
DVB: US journalists question motives for deportation

ON THE BORDER
Irrawaddy: "Generals call the ceasefire groups' hands
Narinjara: Mounting desertions in riot police force

BUSINESS / TRADE
Financial Times (UK): Burma gas sales surge but little cash leaks out

REGIONAL
Korean Central News Agency: Zimbabwean, Burmese delegations arrive in
North Korea

INTERNATIONAL
IPS: Security Council silent on Burma’s child victims

OPINION / OTHER
Vancouver Sun (Canada): Time for a fresh approach to Burma's military
government – Jonathan Manthorpe
Huffington Post: 'Burma VJs: Reporting from a closed country': Filmmaking
at Its incendiary best – Russ Wellen

PRESS RELEASE
NCGUB: NCGUB raises concerns over Daw Aung San Suu Kyi's detention
Thailand-based Assistance Association for Political: Burma’s prisons and
labour camps: Silent killing fields

STATEMENT
U.S. Department of State, Office of the Spokesman: Statement 2009/442 on
Aung San Suu Kyi’s Health – Ian Kelly



____________________________________
INSIDE BURMA

May 11, Associated Press
Doctor visits Myanmar's ailing Aung San Suu Kyi

Myanmar's military rulers allowed a doctor to make a follow-up visit to
detained opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi on Monday after the
63-year-old Nobel Peace laureate was found last week to be suffering from
dehydration and low blood pressure.

Officials from Suu Kyi's National League for Democracy party said Dr.
Pyone Moe Ei was granted a medical visit Monday afternoon to her lakeside
home, where she is under house arrest, and spent about five hours there.
They issued an appeal for her to be allowed further treatment for her
condition, which was not disclosed.

Suu Kyi's main doctor, Tin Myo Win, was detained for questioning by the
authorities last Thursday after an American man was arrested for allegedly
sneaking into her closely guarded home early last week.

State-run media said the American confessed that he swam 1 1/4 miles
across Inya Lake to Suu Kyi's compound and "secretly entered the house,"
where he stayed for two days. He was arrested when authorities spotted him
swimming back.

Pyone Moe Ei was allowed to see Suu Kyi on Friday and put her on an
intravenous drip, but a request for a follow-up visit on Saturday was not
granted. She is rarely allowed to leave her compound and her visitors are
severely restricted because she is under house arrest.

"We heard that the doctor is allowed to see Daw Aung San Suu Kyi (on
Monday). We welcome the doctor's visit and we are happy that Daw Suu is
given medical treatment," said Nyan Win, a spokesman for her party. "Daw"
is a term of respect used for older women in Myanmar.

Nyan Win last week said Pyone Moe Ei reported that Suu Kyi had not eaten
for three or four days.

Asked about Tin Myo Win, the spokesman said, "We still haven't heard
anything about the doctor since Thursday and we are very much concerned."

The military government, following standard practice, has not commented on
the doctor's detention.

In Washington, the U.S. State Department urged the junta to allow Suu Kyi
access to Tin Myo Win. The statement also called for the military to
release Suu Kyi and some 2,100 other political prisoners.

Suu Kyi — who has spent more than 13 of the last 19 years, including the
past six, in detention without trial — is allowed virtually no visitors
aside from her doctor.

She is not known to have had any serious medical problems since September
2003, when she was taken from detention to a private hospital for a week
for a major operation that doctors said was a gynecological procedure. In
November 2006 her doctor conducted an ultrasound examination at her
request and announced that the results revealed no gynecological problems.

In June 2006, Suu Kyi suffered from a stomach illness but was treated at
home.

She appeared weak after she conducted a monthlong protest against her poor
living conditions in August 2008 by limiting her food intake, and
afterward was given an intravenous drip to restore her strength. In
October that year, Tin Myo Win brought an eye specialist and dentist to
give her a checkup, but no problems were reported.

____________________________________

May 10, BBC News
Burma's Suu Kyi 'in poor health'

Burma's detained opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi is suffering from low
blood pressure and dehydration and is barely eating, her party spokesman
says.

Nyan Win said they were extremely worried about the 63-year-old Nobel
Laureate's health.

A medical assistant has placed Ms Suu Kyi on an intravenous drip. Her own
doctor was reportedly detained after visiting her earlier this week.

Ms Suu Kyi She has been under almost permanent house arrest since 1990.

It followed the victory of her National League for Democracy (NLD) in a
general election in 1990. The junta has refused to allow the party to
assume power.

Ms Suu Kyi's latest period of detention is due to expire at the end of May
but the authorities have not yet said if it will be extended.

Break-in

"We are very concerned about her health and security conditions," Nyan Win
of the NLD told the BBC.

He said Ms Suu Kyi had suffered a loss of appetite and had gone three to
four days without eating.

As a result, her blood pressure had dropped and she was showing symptoms
of dehydration.

Nyan Win said the party was closely monitoring the situation, and would
decide next week whether to press for greater medical treatment for Ms Suu
Kyi.

Nyan Win said it was not clear why physician Tin Myo Win had been arrested
last Thursday.

He speculated that it could be linked to the arrest on Tuesday of a man
carrying a US passport who swam across a lake to the property.

About 20 police are reported to have entered Ms Suu Kyi's house on
Thursday morning.

It followed reports that an American, identified as John William Yeattaw,
had managed to breach tight security to swim across Inya Lake and enter Ms
Suu Kyi's house secretly on Sunday.

He was arrested after swimming back across the lake late on Tuesday.

Such an incident would be the first time someone has broken into Ms Suu
Kyi's compound.

____________________________________

May 11, New York Times
Ethnic groups in Myanmar hope for peace, but gird for fight – Thomas Fuller

The Kachin tribesmen who inhabit the hills along Myanmar’s border with
China have a reputation as stealthy jungle warriors, famous for repelling
Japanese attacks in the Second World War with booby traps and instilling
terror by slicing off ears to tally their kills.

Now, as they have many times in their war-scarred history, the Kachin are
hoping for peace but are prepared for battle with Myanmar’s central
government.

“Whether or not there will be war again, we have to be ready,” Maj. Zauja
Nhkri, the head of an officer’s training school that is part of the Kachin
Independence Army, which has around 4,000 men under arms.

“If our army is strong, we can maintain the peace.”

As Myanmar’s military government prepares to adopt a new and disputed
Constitution next year, a fragile patchwork of cease-fire agreements
between the central government and more than a dozen armed ethnic groups
is fraying.

The new Constitution would nominally return the country to civilian rule
after four and a half decades of military government and, in theory, could
formally end the now dormant civil war that has plagued the country since
it gained independence from Britain in 1948. But as a precondition for
what they portray as a fresh start, Myanmar’s ruling generals are ordering
the Kachin and other groups to disarm and disband their substantial
armies.

So far, the answer is no.

“There is no good road map for the future of Burma,” said Gen. Gam Shawng
Gunhtang, the chief of staff of the Kachin Independence Army, which has
fought the government on and off since its founding in 1961. Myanmar used
to be known as Burma.

The ethnic groups control large pockets of territory in the northern and
eastern borderland areas, and, if they disarm, they risk losing control
over their lucrative trade in timber, jade, gems and, in some cases,
heroin and methamphetamines. They are loath to give up their hard-won
autonomy to the Myanmar military, which is dominated by the Burman ethnic
group they have long resented.

“We ethnic peoples are trying to form a federal union,” Gen. Gam Shawng
Gunhtang said. “They don’t want to hear about it.”

The demands to disarm are “not acceptable,” he said.

The volatile and remote northern reaches of Myanmar are rarely reported on
in the Western news media because of the difficulty accessing the armed
groups. The visit by this reporter to Laiza was the first by a foreign
newspaper correspondent in several years.

By the tumultuous standards of Myanmar’s six decades of independence, the
country has been relatively peaceful over the past decade and a half,
thanks to the cease-fire agreements.

Myanmar captured the world’s attention when the government quashed the
uprising of Buddhist monks in September 2007 and when it refused to allow
some international assistance after a deadly cyclone last May.

But those events only served to underline the firm grip that the generals
have over the low-lying parts of the country, where the majority Burman
population is concentrated.

It is a very different picture in the upland regions, where the
government’s control has always been tenuous. A resumption of civil war in
the north and east is by no means a foregone conclusion — the generals
could back down from their demands to disarm, or the ethnic groups might
relent and decide to fully adopt the new Constitution.

But if the conflicts re-ignite, which some analysts say is likely, it
could resonate well beyond Myanmar’s borders, resulting in outflows of
refugees into neighboring countries like Thailand and China and a
resurgence of the heroin business, which in the past has thrived under the
cover of war.

“I think you will hear a lot of gunfire next year,” said Aung Kyaw Zaw, a
former soldier in the now defunct Burmese Communist Party who is in
contact with leaders of the ethnic groups. “The Burmese government is
unwilling to give autonomy.”

The largest borderland groups, drawn from ethnic groups like the Wa, Shan
and Kokang, are united in their bitterness over their historical
domination by the Burman.

During the Cold War, China, Thailand and the United States supplied arms
and other assistance to some borderland groups. Now commercial interests,
including many shady businesses, have replaced ideological ones.

The Kachin hills are home to the world’s most lucrative jade mines. The
area inhabited by the Shan has the largest and best-quality rubies found
anywhere. All the territory controlled by the ethnic groups has prized
varieties of tropical hardwood.

And drug syndicates, many of them with ties to the ethnic groups, profit
handsomely from the trafficking of both illegal and counterfeit drugs.

Adding to the complexity of the situation, Myanmar, by the nature of its
location between India and China, is now the focus of a geopolitical
contest for influence by the region’s big powers increasingly hungry for
natural resources.

Chinese companies are building a series of hydroelectric dams on northern
tributaries of the Irrawaddy River (despite Kachin objections) and have
helped finance and build roads inside Myanmar, facilitating both the sale
of Chinese electronics and clothing in Myanmar and the export of timber
and other commodities into China.

China recently beat India in securing a 30-year concession on natural gas
from Myanmar, and construction will reportedly start soon on twin
pipelines crossing Myanmar from the Bay of Bengal and connecting to the
southern Chinese city of Kunming.

In March, China and Myanmar signed a “cooperation agreement” on the oil
and gas pipelines, but key details are vague.

The strategic objective for China is access to the Bay of Bengal, thus
avoiding having to ship oil through the Strait of Malacca, a costly detour
and a security threat if that choke point is ever blocked. But the project
is seen by many as a risky venture.

“Burma is not a stable place when you get out into these remote areas that
the pipeline is going to have to traverse,” said Priscilla A. Clapp, a
former American diplomat who spent three years as the chief of the U.S.
mission in Myanmar. “It’s going to have to go over mountains and through
remote areas of the country that are barely controlled by the military. It
could very easily be blown up, and then you’re out of luck.”

Gam Shawng Gunhtang, the Kachin general, is worried that the pipeline will
marginalize the borderland ethnic groups and give the upper hand to
Myanmar’s junta, also known as the State Peace and Development Council, or
S.P.D.C.

“The S.P.D.C. is trying to convince the Chinese government that the
borderland armed groups are not political groups — just insurgents or
terrorists,” the general said. “The pipeline will be a tool and an
opportunity for the S.P.D.C. to eliminate the armed groups.”

The Constitution, which Myanmar’s generals say was adopted by more than 90
percent of voters in a referendum last year and will take effect after
elections next year, prescribes “genuine multi-party democracy” and
recognizes what it calls “self-administered” areas. But ethnic leaders say
this falls short of the autonomy they want.

They also point out that the document preserves a dominant role for the
military, including the right of the commander in chief of the armed
forces to appoint a quarter of the Parliament and to remove the president.

And because the Constitution mandates that only the national armed forces
provide defense and security, the junta is demanding that all other groups
disarm.

The most heavily armed group along the Chinese border is the United Wa
State Army, which has about 20,000 soldiers and new armaments including
field artillery and anti-tank missiles, according to Bertil Lintner, an
expert on Myanmar’s ethnic groups and co-author of the book “Merchants of
Madness,” which deals with the drug trade among ethnic groups.

Very few of the armed groups will accede to the government’s demands to
disarm, Mr. Lintner believes.

“Some of the smaller groups might hand in their weapons, but they don’t
matter anyway,” he said.

In Laiza, it is easy to see why the Kachin want to maintain their autonomy.

Residents escape many of the deprivations so common in other parts of
Myanmar, one of the world’s poorest countries: Electricity from a nearby
hydroelectric dam is reliable, cellphone service provided by Chinese
communications towers across the border is cheap (obtaining a cellphone
number inside Myanmar typically costs $2,000), and the local
administration even stamps out its own vehicle license plates, skirting
Myanmar’s highly restrictive car ownership policies.

In addition to its own army, the Kachin have a police force, schools, a
teacher’s training college and their own customs agents, who monitor the
border crossing with China.

Laiza is no Shangri-La — the town struggles with drug addiction and other
social ills common to many border areas — but it feels more free than the
military-controlled areas in Myanmar, where dissidents are repeatedly
rounded up and sentenced to long jail terms.

“The S.P.D.C. has one last chance to win the hearts of the people,” said
Thar Kyaw, a jade dealer now based in the southern Chinese city of Ruili.
“But we are not very hopeful.”

____________________________________

May 10, The Times (UK)
Burma's orphans of the storm

When three-year-old Su Myat Khain wakes up crying in the middle of the
night, it is her brother Kyaw Kyaw Min, now 16, who cradles her and tries
to comfort her. Su Myat Khain is still too young to understand that her
parents’ quick thinking saved her life when Cyclone Nargis devastated
Burma’s Irrawaddy delta last May, but that they never made it to the
temple where they sent her and her two brothers. That night, unable to
cross the village as the waters rose, they took refuge in their home, but
were swept to their deaths by the devastating storm.

Kyaw Kyaw Min hugs Su Myat Khain close to his chest. “There are so many
responsibilities now,” he says, sitting outside his makeshift home, with
its flimsy tarpaulin roof, in a village in the southwest of the delta. “I
have to look after my younger brother and sister. I feel like their
father.”

In the aftermath of cyclone Nargis, aid agencies registered nearly 2,000
children who had been separated from their parents or guardians. While the
majority were cared for by relatives, some were initially sent to
government-run orphanages, others lived in local Buddhist monasteries, and
a few remained in the community in child-headed households.


>From the moment the cyclone died down and the water receded, Kyaw Kyaw Min

has done everything he can to ensure that he, Su Myat Khain and their
12-year-old brother, Than Naing, stay together and survive — including
building their home from scraps of timber salvaged from a landscape
littered with dead bodies.

In the days when their parents were alive, the family had been relatively
well-off. Now every day is a struggle to make ends meet, and although the
children’s uncles and cousins live nearby and help them when they can,
both brothers have dropped out of school in order to work. Kyaw Kyaw Min
is up every morning at 4am to tend his father’s paddy fields. Though the
family’s 40 buffalo died in the cyclone, their old tractor still just
about works and the teenager spends 10 hours a day on the land almost all
year round.

Last year Kyaw Kyaw Min took out a $1,000 loan to buy paddy seed, and was
given a cash lump sum by Save the Children to buy fertiliser. The crop
failed and he had to pay back the moneylender by giving him 12 of the
family’s 42 acres of land.

Like so many people living in the Irrawaddy delta — once known as the
“rice bowl” of Asia — Kyaw Kyaw Min is pinning his hopes on the belief
that land flooded during the cyclone is now fertile once again, and that
this year’s crop will be a success. He and his siblings can’t afford for
it not to be.

Than Naing, who once dreamt of being a doctor, now spends seven hours a
day fishing. Although he is good at it — he proudly explains that his
father taught him — he catches only two kilograms a day at most, which he
sells for just £2. Now he and Kyaw Kyaw Min dream of earning enough money
to send their sister to school. “At night Su Myat Khain wakes up and calls
out for her mum,” Kyaw Kyaw Min says in a soft voice. “At the time of the
cyclone, Mother was still breast-feeding her. After she died, Su Myat
Khain became thinner.” Kyaw Kyaw Min, who professes to be quite a good
cook, has weaned his sister onto their typical diet of rice and fish.

He says he feels older than his 16 years, and gets to play football with
his friends only twice a week. “But I hope I will get us back to the
status we had before. We used to have a big house with four rooms and
could eat many kinds of food. We even had enough money to buy new
clothes.”

But the single-room timber-framed hut where the children sleep today,
huddled together in the corner by a small Buddhist shrine, looks unlikely
to survive this year’s monsoon. According to Save the Children, nearly
half a million people in the delta still have inadequate shelter and are
living under plastic sheeting, exposed to the elements. With the monsoon
season imminent, the agency is now preparing to distribute emergency aid
to families before the rains start.

Despite everything, Kyaw Kyaw Min is hopeful about the future. “Right
after Nargis it was really, really difficult for me. I felt a great loss.
But as the year has gone by I can accept that my parents have lost their
lives,” he says. “Now my brother and sister need me to be a strong person.
My parents saved my life. I remember them every night. I will never forget
them. I hope they will be proud of me.”

____________________________________

May 11, Democratic Voice of Burma
US journalists question motives for deportation – Francis Wade

Two American journalists deported from Burma last week after delivering
workshops on photography and feature writing say reasons for their arrest
may lie in their meeting with a local Burmese business owner.

Following a series of workshops organised by the American Centre in
Rangoon last Wednesday, Jerry Redfern and Karen Coates were arrested by
immigration authorities and deported to Bangkok.

Reasons for their arrest were never given, although the ruling State Peace
and Development Council is notoriously fearful of foreign media presence
in Burma.

“We had been in Burma to teach and lecture about creative non-fiction
feature writing and photography,” they said in a press release issued
today.

“The programs were follow-ups to similar work we did in January, all of
which had been approved and acknowledged by the Scrutiny Board and the
Special Branch (police).”

Police had visited Redfern’s class on its first day, and they say all
subsequent lessons proceeded without incident.

Rumours surrounding reasons for the arrests include fallout from John
William Yettaw’s arrest the same day after he illegally entered imprisoned
opposition leader Aung Sann Suu Kyi’s compound.

Others claim the two journalists were involved in politically sensitive
work, which the government have a reputation for reacting harshly to.

“The only story we had in mind was a small piece on laphet thote, (pickled
tea leaf salad) explaining the flavours, history and cultural significance
of the dish,” the press release said.

“In Mandalay, a colleague introduced us to the owner of a longstanding
laphet thote business
 [who] invited us to visit a trade centre where
people buy and sell beans and pulses, key ingredients for laphet thote.

“We accepted and planned to meet on Thursday morning, – but we never had
that chance. This might be all, or part, of the reason we were deported.”

The two emphasised their efforts to avoid government scrutiny, or any
“journalistic” appearance.

The Burmese junta are rarely issue foreign journalists with visas, and
Burmese citizens found communicating with overseas media are often
imprisoned.

____________________________________
ON THE BORDER

May 8, Irrawaddy
"Generals call the ceasefire groups' hands

If the ethnic ceasefire groups agree to follow proposals by Burma's
military junta to transform their battalions into border guard forces,
they will be left with no room to manoeuvre politically. Either way,
stability across the country is under threat.

The dilemma facing several of Burma's ethic armies comes after
high-ranking officers from Naypyidaw made several visits to the ethnic
groups' bases last week to outline blueprints for the post-election period
that would entail the former insurgents submitting to the command of the
Burmese army, also known as the Tatmadaw.

Among the groups that sat with the junta officials last week is the
largest armed ethnic group, the United Wa State Army (UWSA), a
20,000-strong army based in Shan State which is closely associated with
the drugs trade.

Other groups include the Kachin Independence Army (KIA), a Kokang group
called the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army, and the National
Democratic Alliance Army, which is based in Shan State.

According to a copy of the blueprint obtained by The Irrawaddy, none of
the ethnic ceasefire groups would retain the right to manage day-to-day
affairs independently and its command structure would have to share - and,
in certain positions, be submissive to - the Tatmadaw's regional
commanders.

Under the plan outlined in the leaked blueprint, one Burmese officer would
share command of each ethnic ceasefire group battalion alongside two
ethnic commanders. Burmese military personnel would also assume several
other significant posts in each battalion.

According to the junta's guidelines, the ceasefire groups have to respond
to the proposal in the coming months. Military training for the ceasefire
groups has been penciled in for October.

"The ceasefire groups should think carefully about their future," said
Aung Kyaw Zaw, a Burmese military analyst based on the Sino-Burmese
border. "This is a crucial time for them.

"If the junta's plan comes to fruition, there will be no more UWSA or KIA
- only political wings, such as the UWSP (United Wa State Party) and the
KIO (Kachin Independence Organization)."

Observers say that if the ceasefire groups do not accept the Tatmadaw's
border guard force proposal, the fragile ceasefire agreements between many
of the ethnic groups and the junta could be broken; and the border trade
zone along Burma's eastern border could suddenly become a battleground
again.

Aside from the UWSA, the other ethnic ceasefire groups are not as strong
nowadays as they were before they entered into ceasefire agreements. The
Tatmadaw now has several outposts positioned in the ethnic
group-controlled areas.

However, according to Khuensai Jaiyen, the editor-in-chief of the Shan
Herald Agency for News, ceasefire groups such as the Shan State Army
(North) would still be a force to be reckoned with if they were called
into action, even though they have a much smaller army than the UWSA.

According to intelligence sources, junta chief Snr-Gen Than Shwe has
indicated to his officers that handling the ethnic ceasefire groups would
be one of their biggest challenges in the coming years.

"Apart from non-violent dissidents such as Aung San Suu Kyi and the NLD
(National League for Democracy), the generals in Naypyidaw see this as
another threat to their administration since there are no concrete
political solutions to ceasefire agreements," said a political observer in
Rangoon who spoke on condition of anonymity.

He said that facing down the ceasefire groups would be different from Suu
Kyi and other dissidents. "If the junta wants to crack down on the
non-violent opposition, they can simply open more prison doors. But the
ceasefire groups - like the junta - also know how to use firepower to get
their way," he said.

The issue also encompasses geopolitical concerns for the regime. China,
being Burma's northern neighbour and one of its biggest trade and military
partners, enjoys a strong influence on all the ceasefire groups based near
the Sino-Burmese border, especially the UWSA and the KIA.

China is scheduled to build a strategic oil and gas pipeline stretching
from western Burma to Yunnan Province, passing through much ethnic
territory.

China, as former comrades-in-arms, would not ignore the UWSA and the
Kokang if they were in crisis, said Aung Kyaw Zaw.

In recent years, the question of Burma's stability, development and
national reconciliation has become a main concern for Beijing.

In April, Chen Bingde, the Chief-of-Staff of the People's Liberation Army,
told the visiting Burmese general Tin Aye that Beijing hoped Burma could
achieve social stability, economic development and national
reconciliation.

However, at last week's meeting between junta officers and the UWSA, one
of the Wa leaders reportedly rebuked the Burmese regime's offer angrily,
calling it a recipe for disunity.

Other ethnic leaders are going to have to make big decisions in the near
future - decisions that could tread dangerously close to plunging the
region into instability and bloodshed.

____________________________________

May 11, Narinjara
Mounting desertions in riot police force

A significant number of riot police personnel have deserted the force
after Burmese authorities used them as forced labour to fence the western
Burma border with Bangladesh, said a police official on condition of
anonymity.

“A riot policeman Min Thi Ha and another unidentified police personnel
deserted their column on Saturday night while it was working on the
fencing project in the southern part of Maungdaw Township,” he said.

A number of riot policemen like Min Thi Ha deserted the riot police force
recently because of their reluctance to work on fence project as
labourers.

“I have heard that many riot police personnel have been forced by senior
officials to work at construction sites. They are not getting any extra
pay despite working in the construction sites the whole day,” he said.

The riot policemen are being forced to work by the authorities in
construction sites. They have to carry stone for the pillars, construct
embankments and dig holes to erect the pillars for the fencing.

Though the riot police are being made to work on border fencing they do
not receive sufficient food and drinking water, local sources said.

“It is a major problem for the riot police force. Many policemen are
frustrated because of the shortage of daily food and water at the
construction sites. So some have deserted,” a police source said.

Senior officials have issued an order to all police stations throughout
Arakan state to arrest all deserters. According to official sources, there
are over 700 riot police personnel currently working on the fencing sites
in Maungdaw Township. The police are from two regiments stationed in
Maungdaw and Buthidaung.

____________________________________
BUSINESS / TRADE

May 11, Financial Times (UK)
Burma gas sales surge but little cash leaks out – Amy Kazmin

Strong exports of natural gas have swollen Burma's foreign exchange
reserves to a record high but have not been used by the military regime to
boost health or education spending for the impoverished population, the
International Monetary Fund says in a report.

In its annual evaluation of Burma's economy, the IMF says the global
economic slowdown and the devastating May 2008 cyclone, which killed
140,000 people, have taken their toll. Gross domestic product growth
slowed to about 4.5 per cent last year, from 5.5 per cent a year earlier.

Spending on extravagant showcase projects - such as the new political
capital, Naypitaw - is being financed by printing money, fuelling
inflation of about 30 per cent. Social spending, meanwhile, remains the
lowest in Asia, according to the IMF.

The report, which has not been publicly released but was obtained by the
Financial Times, says Burma's prospects "look bleak" if it fails to sweep
away socialist legacies - including the multiple exchange rate system and
stifling economic controls - or improve the deteriorating business
climate.

How Burma's rulers use the revenue from natural gas exports to Thailand,
through pipelines operated by Total and Petronas, is also under scrutiny.
Gas revenues are added to the budget at the 30-year-old official exchange
rate of Kt6 to the dollar. The black market rate is about Kt1,000.

As a result the gas money has had "a small fiscal impact", accounting for
less than 1 per cent of budget revenue in 2007-08, instead of 57 per cent
if valued at market rates. The IMF has urged the regime to report gas
sector revenues at the market exchange rate to stabilise state finances.

The downbeat assessment comes as independent agricultural experts warn of
rising distress among Burmese farmers after a steep fall in prices at
harvest.

Analysts fear there will be a significant drop in rice planting in the
monsoon season, which begins soon, as heavily indebted farmers try to
reduce costs.

"The rural economy here is on the verge of some type of collapse," said
one Rangoon-based expert. "Rice farming is not profitable."

Analysing Burma's economic performance is challenging because of the
paucity of accurate and timely data. Many western policymakers still see
Burma as largely cut off from the global economy, especially after the US
and EU tightened sanctions following a harsh military crackdown on mass
protests in September 2007.

The IMF says the impact of western sanctions has been "moderated by strong
regional trade links", although the region's woes are hitting Burma's
natural gas, other commodity exports and remittance flows from millions of
Burmese working abroad.

"A lot of people thought that, since they have no banking system, they
would escape the impact of the crisis," said one diplomat. "But it's such
a simple economy, so dependent on commodity prices."

Burmese authorities have acknowledged the slowdown, though they still see
growth as a robust 10 per cent. Exchange reserves stand at $3.6bn (€2.7bn,
£2.4bn).

The IMF says growth will be about 4 per cent - "insufficient to reduce
poverty" without major reforms.

____________________________________
REGIONAL

May 11, Korean Central News Agency
Zimbabwean, Burmese delegations arrive in North Korea

A government delegation of Zimbabwe led by Minister of Interior Kembo
Campbell Dugishmohadi and a delegation of the Foreign Ministry of Myanmar
[Burma] headed by Deputy Minister U Maung Myint arrived here by air today.

The government of the DPRK [Democratic People's Republic of Korea] hosted
a reception in honour of the Zimbabwean government delegation today.

____________________________________
INTERNATIONAL

May 8, Inter Press Service
Security Council silent on Burma’s child victims – Thalif Deen

The UN Security Council, which has remained virtually paralyzed on
Palestine because of strong Western support for Israel, is considered
equally ineffective on Burma (Myanmar) because of Chinese and Russian
backing for the military junta in that politically troubled Southeast
Asian nation.

A 60-page study by the New York-based Watchlist on Children and Armed
Conflict released here says it is time for the Security Council to "move
swiftly" to protect the tens of thousands of Burmese children who are
"raped, abducted and recruited as soldiers by the country's military and
non-state armed groups (NSAGs)."

Asked why the Security Council continues to remain silent on Burma, Julia
Freedson, director of Watchlist, told IPS there are several possible
reasons.

"Monitoring reports being sent to the Security Council, through official
UN channels about violations against children, are dismal," she said.

This is in part because authorities in Burma, and other key countries such
as Thailand, block access by the United Nations to important segments of
the country, thereby preventing documentation, she added.

However, many reliable sources from non-governmental organizations (NGOs)
have produced trustworthy documentation of sexual violence, killing and
maiming, forced displacement and other violations which the Security
Council should give more weight to, Freedson added.

Last year, both China and Russia exercised a rare double veto against a
Western-sponsored resolution critical of the military regime, officially
dubbed the State Peace Development Council (SPDC).

The Chinese and Russian support has prevented any UN sanctions against the
SPDC, which is battling ethnic minorities complaining of military
aggression and human rights violations.

The 10-member Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), of which
Burma is a member, has opposed any political involvement in the armed
conflict, which it considers an internal affair outside the purview of the
Security Council.

Asked how confident she was that the Security Council will eventually take
any action—in the context of the opposition from Russia and China—Freedson
said: "The geopolitical factors are a concern."

However, she pointed out, the dynamic in the Council in 2009 is different
than it was last year.

Following last week's open debate in the Security Council on Children and
Armed Conflict, she said, "The sense is that there is now a deeper
commitment to moving forward on the Council's obligations to hold
perpetrators of violations against children accountable."

"We hope that Myanmar will not be an exception," Freedson added.

According to the Watchlist report, children as young as nine constantly
face the threat of forced recruitment by security forces, non-state armed
groups and civilians, even in public places such as bus or train stations
and markets.

Armed forces have also occupied schools, recruited teachers and students
for forced labor and planted landmines close to schools or on the paths to
schools.

Asked how violations by the military junta compare with other countries,
Freedson said violations in Burma are certainly on par with some of those
countries that the international community considers the worst in the
world like the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) or Afghanistan, where
child mortality is comparable due to denial of humanitarian assistance and
medical treatment by the Burmese authorities.

"On the issue of child soldiers, we don’t have precise figures because of
lack of access for this type of monitoring, but trustworthy estimates have
put the numbers in the tens of thousands," Freedson said.

If this is the case, she said, it could be among the highest, if not the
highest number in the world.

At the same time, there are larger geopolitical factors inside the
Security Council which have hampered action on Burma, Freedson said.

For example, the Security Council's special Working Group on Children and
Armed Conflict deliberated for six months on their conclusions on Burma
last year.

"It is our understanding that this was largely due to stalling tactics by
China and others which do not want to see human rights issues in Myanmar
discussed inside the Security Council," she said.

And when the Working Group finally issued their conclusions, they were
disappointing and weak, she noted.

The Watchlist report includes several policy recommendations, including
targeted measures on the Burmese government and relevant non-state armed
groups, particularly if no real progress is achieved in ending the
recruitment and use of children within a specified time frame. These
sanctions should include travel bans, asset freezes or arms embargoes.

Meanwhile, Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon has been asked to provide
information to the Security Council on all six grave violations called for
under Resolution 1612, including sexual violence, attacks against schools,
and denial of humanitarian assistance.
"Too much time has been wasted denying the extent of the crisis facing
children in Myanmar's conflict zones," Freedson said. The United Nations
must act now to protect these children and bring the perpetrators to
justice, she added.

____________________________________
OPINION / OTHER

May 11, Vancouver Sun (Canada)
Time for a fresh approach to Burma's military government – Jonathan Manthorpe

It was immediately noticeable in the stories from the official Burmese
media last week that the American who swam to the lakeside villa of
detained opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi. Aung San Suu Kyi spent "three
nights" in the compound before attempting to swim back to his hotel.

If the story's true, the man named as John William Yeattaw also spent
three days with Suu Kyi, but -- nudge, nudge, wink, wink -- that doesn't
have the same implication.

And it is because of those implications from the military regime's
mouthpieces -- that this was an amorous assignation rather than a
political event or even a weird piece of American eccentricity -- that
people in Rangoon and elsewhere in Burma have grave doubts about its
truth.

There is a widespread belief in Rangoon that this story was manufactured
to sully Suu Kyi's reputation and thus blunt criticism of the military
regime, which has already announced it plans to renew her detention when
the current six-year term ends later this month.

But Suu Kyi's popularity among Burmese people remains undimmed, though she
has been detained in her crumbling and mould-stained house on University
Avenue in Rangoon for most of the last 19 years.

The junta has been unstinting in its efforts over the years to manufacture
or twist events to undermine the domestic support that saw her National
League for Democracy (NLD) win 85 per cent of the parliamentary seats in
1990 elections.

The junta, now led by General Than Shwe, has always refused to acknowledge
those results. It spent the last 12 years concocting a fraudulent
"civilian" constitution adopted in a sham referendum last year. This
envisages multi-party elections next year, but also ensures the military
continues to control the presidency and all the important ministries, and
retains the authority to dismiss the parliament at will.

So it is hardly surprising that most of the western world, and especially
the United States and the European Union, continue to apply rigorous
economic sanctions and other embargoes on contacts with the Burmese
regime. Indeed, only 10 days ago the EU reaffirmed those sanctions.

But there is a growing acceptance that the moral high ground held by the
West on the Burma issue is a road to nowhere. The generals have not budged
one inch over the years in the face of sanctions that have kept most of
Burma's 80 million people in abject poverty.

The generals themselves are largely untroubled by the constraints of
sanctions. They have merely grown grossly rich on natural resources deals
with China, which doesn't give a fig about other regimes' repression of
their people any more than it does about its own.

And Than Shwe and his boys have been just as disdainful of the
blandishments of the "constructive engagement" policies of Burma's
neighbours in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations. With neither
stick nor carrot moving the junta, it is clearly time for a new approach.

Last October the International Crisis Group led by former Australian
foreign minister Gareth Evans criticized the West for tying aid to
political reform in Burma after hurricane Nargis struck last year. The
group followed that up with a report last month called "Missing the Boat
on Myanmar" -- Myanmar is the name the junta uses for Burma.

In this report the group said "The EU should abandon a policy maintained
by those with an eye on noble points rather than on new opportunities to
promote change."

Even Suu Kyi, who used to be adamant that economic sanctions were
essential is now much less dogmatic on the question.

The EU may not have got the message that sanctions are counter-productive,
but the new administration in Washington has. In February, while on a
visit to Indonesia, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton said, "Clearly, the
path we have taken in imposing sanctions hasn't influenced the Burmese
junta."

It seems she has ordered a review and refashioning of American policy
towards Burma. Clinton's main policy adviser on mainland Southeast Asia,
Stephen Blake, has even visited the generals' new capital at Naypidaw,
where he met foreign minister U Nyan Win.
The review may well conclude that, rather than sanctions, it may be wiser
to smother the malevolent economic influence of China with trade and
investment in Burma.

It may also decide that next year's elections, flawed as they are, are
better than none, especially as the junta has said clearly it will allow
United Nations monitors.

It may thus make sense to urge Suu Kyi and the NLD to drop their current
boycott and instead show some faith in the popular support that won them
the 1990 elections.

And it's worth remembering that the Burmese junta has modelled the new
constitution on the old military-dominated system in Indonesia. But in
1998 Indonesia's military dictatorship collapsed under its own weight and
evolved with surprisingly little violence into a proper democracy.

____________________________________

May 11, Huffington Post
'Burma VJs: Reporting from a closed country': Filmmaking at Its incendiary
best – Russ Wellen

Technically, Burma's 2007 Saffron Revolution wasn't saffron. The term was
coined out of deference to the saffron-yellow robes that Buddhist monks in
Asia usually wear. The robes of Burmese monks are, in fact, plum colored
(the better to hide the blood?).
The Saffron Revolution was triggered by Burma's military dictatorship when
it took the International Money Fund and its trademark "structural
adjustment program," as well as the World Bank's advice, a little too
literally. In one bold stroke, the junta, which has been ruling Burma with
the proverbial iron fist since 1962, stopped subsidizing fuel. Prices rose
at least 50%.

Imagine the chaos that would ensue if the United States Government pulled
a stunt like that? Triple the effects on a semi-impoverished state like
Burma.

As revolutionaries have a way of doing, the activists who initiated the
2007 protests leveraged economic mismanagement into a general call for
reform. In the Southeast Asian tradition of Buddhist activism, monks soon
joined in and gave the movement a shot in the arm. Also, they really hit
the junta where it lives when many of the monks marched with their
traditional alms bowls monks held upside down.

Thus did they signal that any donations the military gave them would be
refused by the monks, whose blessings the regime relied on for whatever
sense of legitimacy they could squeeze out of it. In retrospect, one
wonders if severing the military from any pretense of a spiritual life
freed it to act with even fewer ethical constraints than normally. Though,
in fact, some in the military, including at least one of the ruling
junta's twelve generals, refused to cooperate in stamping out the
demonstrations.

At the peak of the protests, the streets of Yangon and other cities filled
with 100,000 people. Soon, though, the junta rounded up the monks -- on
the streets by day and in monasteries by night -- and detained and even
killed some. Soon the junta broke the back of the Saffron Revolution.

While the demonstrations were in progress, access to Burma was denied to
foreign news crews by the junta. Into the the void jumped the Democratic
Voice of Burma, a collective of 30 Burmese video journalists (VJs)
determined to keep the world informed of events in Burma while also trying
to retain their anonymity, lest they be imprisoned and even tortured.
Burma VJs: Reporting From a Closed Country by director Anders Ostergaard
from Norway, where DVB is based, is their story.

The film is narrated by one of the VJs, code-named Joshua, who, early in
the movement, is "made" by the Burmese authorities. He escapes to
Thailand, where he acts as coordinator for the crew, who smuggle their
footage across the border to him. From there it's transmitted to Norway,
where the DVB disperse it to the footage-starved BBC and CNN.

The director is forthcoming about staging Joshua's scenes. Variety wrote
that they "help to fill in the gaps, although some may grumble that it
undermines pic's status as a journalistic document of fact." In fact, with
their low lighting, these scenes are unassuming and critical to
continuity.

Meanwhile, the DJs' mini-cams drop the the viewer into the streets. You
may have experienced this before with news footage or YouTube clips of
Nepal in 2006 or Seattle in 1999. But not to this extent. In the
beginning, despite the ubiquity of security, especially in plain clothes,
flash mobs unfurl banners right smack in the middle of a marketplace and
voice their protests.

At the time, geopolitical analyst F. William Engdahl wrote:

Myanmar's "Saffron Revolution", like the Ukraine "Orange Revolution" or
the Georgia "Rose Revolution". . . is a well-orchestrated exercise in
Washington-run regime change, down to the details of "hit-and-run"
protests with "swarming" mobs of monks in saffron, Internet blogs, mobile
SMS links between protest groups, well-organized protest cells which
disperse and re-form.


[The population] "is being used as a human stage prop in a drama scripted
in Washington by. . . US intelligence asset[s]. . . to spark "non-violent"
regime change. . . on behalf of the US strategic agenda [which includes
use] of the strategic sea lanes from the Persian Gulf to the South China
Sea."

Of course, that does nothing to detract from the legitimacy of the Burmese
cause. Useful to each other, perhaps Washington and Burmese dissidents
might best characterize their relationship as "Who's zooming who?"

As the demonstrations escalate, Buddhist monks march as far as the eye can
see. They and the students are met by the Burmese army, which surrounds
and, at critical moments, opens fire on them. In one frightening scene,
soldiers chase students and a VJ, his camera stashed in a bag at this
point, up the stairs of a building while shooting at them.

After the crackdown, many of the monks dissolved into the countryside and
some managed to find refuge in the U.S. and join the Burmese emigrant
community here. At the special screening in Manhattan, a Q&A followed with
the director and three of the Buddhist monks who were at the forefront of
the movement. One, seen in the film rallying his fellows in thundering
tones with a megaphone, had reverted back to a gentle Buddhist monk again,
lending his cause just as much gravitas as did his activism.

Trying to find fault with Burma VJs is no mean feat. Forced to, here's one
-- Joshua's frequent use of the word "shooting." It can be difficult to
determine if he's referring to the military shooting protesters with their
guns or his crew shooting the protests with their cameras. That's about
it.

Random impressions. . . Practically on the street with the protesters, at
times you want to reach out and pull them from the danger. . . Disdain for
the junta is dripping from those lining Yangon's broad boulevards as well
as those looking on from apartment balconies. Imagine how difficult it
must be to rule a country in which nobody likes you but those in your
employ.

At one point, Joshua remarks: "I think I want to fight for democracy. But
I think we better make a longer plan."

But it's already been a long time -- 47 years. Watching the film it's
natural to wonder how best the United States can help. With our motives
suspect, it might not be a good idea for us to intervene directly beyond
sanctions. Even they're of questionable value.

At the screening, DVB deputy executive director Khin Maung Win commented
that the 100-plus that the junta killed in the Saffron Revolution
represent an improvement over the 3,000 in the 1988 uprising. It would be
sad to think such incremental progress is the best Burma can expect.

Trailing a string of national awards behind it, Burma VJs will play in New
York City's Film Forum from May 20 to June 2.

____________________________________
PRESS RELEASE

May 11, National Coalition Government of the Union of Burma
NCGUB raises concerns over Daw Aung San Suu Kyi's detention

The National Coalition Government of the Union of Burma is deeply
concerned by developments taking shape in Burma.

The democracy leader is reported to have dangerously low blood pressure
and to be suffering severe dehydration, requiring her to be on an
intravenous drip.

Reports of Daw Aung San Suu Kyi's desperately ailing health and of the
subsequent arrest of her physician indicate the regime is preparing to
face the wave of outcry over her incarceration as calls for her
unconditional release build.

Last year at the end of May, the Burmese generals extended the house
arrest of Burma's democracy leader Aung San Suu Kyi by one more year,
which was declared by the United
Nations Working Group on Arbitrary Detentions as unlawful because it "not
only violates international law but also national domestic laws". Burma's
1975 State Protection Law only allows renewable arrest orders for a
maximum of five years.

The time for Daw Aung San Suu Kyi's long-overdue release -- she has
already spent 13 of 19 years under detention -- is up once again at the
end of May. Pressure is increasing on the Burmese regime to release the
democracy leader, along with thousands of other political prisoners, as a
means of giving some democratic credibility to national elections
scheduled for
2010.

As this situation unfolds, sketchy reports of a breach of security by an
American citizen named
John Yeattaw at the heavily-guarded residence of the Nobel Peace Laureate
have emerged. He is said to have stayed at the democracy leader's house
for 2 days after swimming across Inya Lake near her home, before
attempting to escape across the lake again, where he was apparently
arrested.

This bizarre incident looks to be a characteristically surreal set-up.
Even though the intruder's antics may not amount to much -- and were
obviously undertaken without Daw Aung San Suu Kyi's knowledge -- they
provide an opportunity for the Burmese generals to use it as an excuse to
continue detaining her.


The NCGUB is constituted by representatives elected in the 1990 elections
in Burma
For further information: Contact: Tel: (301) 424-4810 Fax (301) 424-4812:
Email: ncgub at ncgub.net

Prime Minister, Dr. Sein Win, who is also Aung San Suu Kyi's cousin,
expressed grave fears for the democracy leader; “Her personal physician is
not allowed to meet her and is now being detained at an undisclosed
location. His assistant who checked Daw Aung San Suu Kyi was prevented
from treating her last weekend. She must be given medical care
immediately.”
“The situation is very troubling."

"Under no circumstances must the international community tolerate the
generals continuing the detention of Daw Aung San Suu Kyi. It must act
together and prevent injustices from continuing in our country," said Dr
Sein Win.

____________________________________

May 11, Thailand-based Assistance Association for Political
Burma’s prisons and labour camps: Silent killing fields

Prisoners (Burma) today released a report, highlighting the growing health
crisis for political prisoners in Burma. The report – entitled “Burma’s
prisons and labour camps: Silent killing fields” – outlines the health
impact of systematic torture, long-term imprisonment, transfers to remote
prisons, and denial of healthcare on the country’s pro-democracy
activists.

AAPP Joint-Secretary Bo Kyi said, “The situation for Burma’s political
prisoners is dire. Not only are there more political prisoners than ever
before, they are facing harsher sentences. Leading activists have been
transferred to the most remote prisons, where there are no prison doctors,
and they are more likely to contract diseases like malaria and
tuberculosis. This is a new cruel and inhumane strategy by the regime.”

According to the report, over 350 activists have been sentenced since
October last year, and the majority of them have been transferred to
remote jails away from their families. Due to the lack of proper
healthcare in Burma’s jails, political prisoners rely on their families
for medicine and food. However, the prison transfers make it difficult for
family members to visit, and provide essential medicine.

At least 127 political prisoners are in poor health, according to the
report, 19 of them require urgent medical treatment. These include; Nobel
Peace Prize winner Daw Aung San Suu Kyi, comedian Zarganar, labour
activist Su Su Nway and 88 Generation Students leader Min Ko Naing.

“Many political prisoners have already died in prison. This has to stop.
The regime must end its cruel and inhumane practices, and release all
political prisoners,” added Bo Kyi.

AAPP is currently co-ordinating a global campaign for Burma’s political
prisoners, which aims to collect 888,888 petition signatures before 24
May.

This is the date that the military junta claims that Nobel Peace Prize
winner Daw Aung San Suu Kyi should be released from house arrest, despite
the fact that the United Nations has recently said her six years under
house arrest contravenes the military regime’s own laws.

The petition can be signed at www.fbppn.net

____________________________________
STATEMENT

May 11, U.S. Department of State, Office of the Spokesman
Statement 2009/442 on Aung San Suu Kyi’s Health – Ian Kelly

The United States Government is concerned about reports that Aung San Suu
Kyi needs medical care and that Burmese authorities have detained her
primary personal physician, Dr. Tin Myo Win.  We urge the Burmese regime
to allow Aung San Suu Kyi to receive immediate medical care from Dr. Tin
Myo Win.  We further call on the regime to permit Aung San Suu Kyi to meet
with her personal attorney immediately.

As the anniversary of her detention approaches, we are reminded that the
house arrest of Aung San Suu Kyi is unjust.  We join with the calls of the
international community and urge her immediate release, along with the
release of all the more than 2100 political prisoners the Burmese regime
currently holds.